back a sense of unity you do not expect that it all and fortunately for. >> at the depressing note on which to end a very, very busy newsweek. my thanks to josh hammer and cliff may. that's it for us this would be back next week at more interviews and commentary right here on the wall street journal at large. thank you so much for joining "after the bell" welcome to xi jinping. we prepare you for the week ahead. wild ups and downs on wall street after russia invaded ukraine. how it could affect markets long-term. solid advice on where investors can find safe havens amid the turmoil in europe. we begin with the most important things investors should be thinking about right

now. investors were shaken by the invasion of ukraine. what if a russian attack undermines global growth but inflation sticks around? investors may need to balance risky portfolios. crude oil surges above 100 a barrel for the first time since 2014. how to boost your portfolio. my colleagues, beverly goodman, carleton english and jack hough. we are getting more grim news out of ukraine. how should investors think about this? jack: i did not have on my bingo card the nasdaq falling 3% and ending 3%. a wild turnaround. let's acknowledge there are stocks that are genuinely cheap. i saw mene stocks around there

and buy the dip, 0% interest rates. when things are bad they come back quickly. we see dire news can be good news for the stock market if the fed were to back off its intended base of hiking interest rate. the price of oil keep inflation high, i spoke with two strategists about whether it is time to buy the dip, and they sounded convincing. one said the chances of inflation are rising and the gdp forecast is a fraction of one person. they track past instances of

wars, assassination and geopolitical mayhem. it tends to be short-lived. in the year following these everything depends on avoiding a recession. jack: lesson one is concerning. what if the russian attack undermines global growth but inflation sticks around? jack: we have a name for it, stagflation. if we see that get a hobby, walk away from it for a wild. i don't think we are there yet and that's not the consensus view. we have a sharp slowdown at the beginning of the year, made her better growth. we all are coming out of a pandemic and hopefully back out of our houses as the year goes on.

jack: let's step back a. how should investors react without overreacting? beverly:this is a good time for a gut check. most investors have taken on a lot of risk, other hybrid stocks driving the market and even now they are quite high. if a 3% swing has you panicking it is time to make some adjustments not just because of what we are seeing in europe but you are taking on more risk than you realize, you should not plan for the worst case but not the best either. jack: a few tweaks for my portfolio for the goldilocks middleground. beverly:inflation is not going anywhere with today's energy prices. there are investments that can help.

gold is a safe haven up 10% even if stocks are falling. commodities will rise. bonds remain challenged, yields are so low-inflation can turn them negative. definitely use a short-term bond fund that will take advantage of higher rates. you can look good for safety. there is not much to like him. jack: the one thing to like, carleton, is energy. you have written about pioneer and devon. what do you like about those names? carleton: energy was already looking good. you can call it the reopening trade and they are producing good returns for the whole sector. in devon energy are getting 5% with a variable component to enhance the return and

increasing share repurchase offering by 60%. natural resources yielding 2.5% but it is paying out its free cash flow. jack: let's step back from those names and explain why the energy patch looks attractive especially the drillers and what they are doing differently than they've been doing for more than a decade. >> 7 years ago there were a number of names filing for bankruptcy or close to it. they couldn't be profitable with oil at $50 a barrel. many of these names are profitable with oil at $50 a barrel. we touched 100 this weekend there are geopoliticals with the price of energy going up. if the with releases more of its reserves we are looking at energy at $70 a barrel.

these companies would maintain their dividend and return capital to shareholders. their balance sheets are greener now. jack: historically the saying is that your for high oil prices is high oil prices. they pump until it is unprofitable. they are not going to do it this time, people at the pump wish they would. markets fluctuated wildly in response to rush at the invasion of ukraine but how invasion of ukraine but how could a drawn out war i have moderate to severe ulcerative colitis. so i'm taking zeposia, a once-daily pill.

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investor sentiment. joining us is jason. thanks for coming to the show. these wild market swings suggest investors don't know what to make about ukraine but how should investors think about the russian invasion? jason: my view is you want to stay with first principles which is does this precipitate a recession in the united states? i think the answer is no. the change the fed's approach to tightening monetary policy? i would argue the answer is no. does it change the outlook for profits? largely the answer to that is no. that's a little different. energy companies benefit a little bit but other companies

may suffer but generally speaking, when you get to this level of discomfort and these unknowns you go back to first principles and think of major things over a long time. jack: i want to ask about one of your investment themes for 2022, a more aggressive russia and china. what does that mean for how people are thinking about the market? jason: 5 or 6 years ago donald trump was seen as a little bit out there in questioning china's intentions and that has become more of a consensus view among regular people and a leap of opinion. the biggest implication is the

era of globalization is over that there is going to be, sadly, more of a tendency to look in words, to develop our own industries internally. i think that is a good thing but a lot of things we benefited from them particularly lower inflation is likely over at this point and the world is becoming more fractured. that will have a large implication on inflation and the domestic economy. jack: the way world events happen so many forces push the same thing, inflation, supply chain, wages or over stimulus. how do you see the fed reacting, pricing lower odds and 50 basis point hike because of russia but you think the

market is underestimating what the fed is going to need to do. jason: i think so. cpi is running 7.5%. the fed's preferred inflation measure is running 51/4 and 0% fed funds rate is inappropriate when inflation is that hot even if you think it will go back to where it was before the pandemic it is not appropriate to have the fed funds rate at 0. the sad part is it will make some tough choices which is to say it may have to suffer some declines or asset prices to fight inflation so particularly for investors on the risk curve, buying stocks that are trading multiple of sales, crypto currencies, things that

are more marginal or benefit a lot from 0 cost to capital, that is coming to an end. to bake that into their expectations for how that affects the economy. jack: before i let you go you have created a new etf that invests in companies that spend a lot on lobbying. it works but it is outperforming. >> we created that etf and another one, macro somatic opportunities fund but the global policy opportunities fund focuses on companies that know how to maneuver levers of government. it is sad that it works but i will tell you it works quite well. that the function of the size

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jack: russian attack has many looking for safe haven for their money. how rude is back. you have written a piece for the package and use that in times of turmoil investors look at the price-to-earnings ratio but at times like this it is important to focus on a strong

he. al: it goes with what my colleagues have been saying. inflation and rising rates, a land war in eastern europe with risk evaluation inflation, after this significant correction we focus on those with earnings to offset compression. jack: you highlighted six stocks that fit this description was all of them are american companies. you say they should stick to domestic stocks. beverly says we need to diversify, we have too much home country by us.

jack: that is a losing proposition. what if? you can't avoid that knee-jerk reaction to hunkered down. what you wouldn't want to do is sell stocks after a big decline. i believe when you have a correction or something significant happens it is a good opportunity to go to work so we look at companies, if you think problems in europe more than people expect. jack: i bluster when you say esteemed colleagues which i know you were talking about beverly and carleton. i saw one measure of used car prices up 30% in january. you like car max. are you worried used car prices

could be peaking? al: you are esteemed as well. that is a risk. used car prices are at record. that is one of the reasons car max, used car dealer, biggest used car dealer in america, they want to grow volumes. their goal is to grow volumes from 1.2 million units a year, to 2 million units a year. i'm focused on volume growth, not any sort of data. used cars is a spread business. it has been a good environment but falling used car prices don't have to kill their business and they will try to grow anyway. that is one of those solid businesses which has been down, create the below market multiple that i think investors should revisit after the selloff.

beverly: pivoting from cars, he refers to dear as the tesla of farming. why was this a stock that you picked? al: they have autonomous tractors, a lot of technology. they are trying to generate sales on a subscription basis like tesla is doing but this is the ultimate american business. 70% of sales are generated in north and south america. when commodity prices get tight, when there is a weather event or global conflict farmers can benefit. the us is a dominant producer of food, commodity prices are good for dear. stock is down 15% from recent highs, they generate 6% in russia. trends to technology and higher commodity prices.

jack: i know you want to get here with a quick question. beverly: wire water stocks so expensive? trading at 30 times earnings. al: they grow. american waterworks grew at 10% a year for a decade. that impressively the other thing is a scarcity value to water from a sustainability element. they tend to get good multiples. jack: roundtable members give as a struggling actor, i need all the breaks that i can get. at liberty butchemel... cut. liberty mu... line? cut. liberty mutual customizes your car insurance so you only pay for what you need. cut. liberty m... am i allowed to riff? what if i come out of the water?

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jack: the major indexes hit hard. >> i was looking down 30 or 40% for ones that are strong, they are deeply depressed. stanley, black & decker, 18 times earnings a year ago. they sell timberland boots, 20 times earnings, now 16 times. fedex, amazon is competing for third-party shipping, after 10 times earnings, a takeover target, thriving companies are 20% growers. this comes from ridiculous valuations. tracks turn wood and plastic

scraps into taking materials down from 60, down from 49 and they don't mind because everything costs less and it has good profit margins. jack: it is time for actionable ideas. carleton: he will look at spider etf. it currently yields 3.9%. and avoiding the headline risk. beverly: a couple commodities funds are great for finding inflation rising along with it. to good options are commodity real return strategy funds and commodity strategy. you want active management.

worcester jack: gathers inflation plays in your portfolio. thanks. and before i let you go, some news. beverly is leaving "barron's roundtable" for new opportunity. we will miss you personally and professionally. don't forget to follow us on don't forget to follow us on twitter, (announcer) the following is a paid presentation furnished by rare collectibles tv, llc. (announcer) the biggest numismatic event of the year just occurred! the 2021 morgan and peace silver dollars are finally available and you are first in line to acquire your very own set right now! the silver dollar is the ultimate collector's coin and the two most popular silver dollar designs are the morgan silver dollar struck from 1878 to 1921 and the peace silver dollar struck from 1921 to 1935