speak out. but it's really doing great damage to themselves, their customers, their shareholders, their workers. they just need to step back and stick to their knitting as it were. gerry: thank you very much that's it for us as quickly back next week from a commentary and interviews right here wall street journal at large. thanks much for joining us have ♪ ♪ >> welcome to "barron's roundtable" where we get behind headlines and prepare you for the week ahead i'm the jack otter coming up a russia and vital infrastructure i'll ask cyberexpert christopher, and later inflation now at 40-year high. how long could it last? how to invest, and how to protect your portfolio. but we begin as always with what we think are three most porkt things investors ought to be thinking about right now. is the market more focused on putin or powell? here's what to watch.

mcdonald's joining growing list of companies suspending oaring'ses in russia a move that will cost fast food behemoth 50 a month and amazon announce evercoming stock which high price stock could be next? on "barron's roundtable" and jack, and investors about, obviously, keeping weary eye on ukraine and on friday market seem to mellow out a little bit. there was talk that maybe, something putin had said was calming investors and they weren't too focused on that. give us the latest. >> well that was the case until the very end of the day but really it goes back to beginning of the week. it was a terrible week the dow finished down 2% and that was best with the major indexes. but if you look at the trading, it was as if market was trying to move past ukraine and russia. the spiked up to 38 and fallen back towards 30 by the end of the week and tenure yield dropped down to 1.75% because of

that fight to safety it was back up at 2%. markets are still concerned we have this bit of a selloff on friday on rumors about belarus getting involved in the war. but for most of the week it was really the market trying to say hey can question get past this and focus on other things? >> so, let's talk about powell, we've got a fed meeting coming up, and investors has to be a bit worried about that. >> i think they are. i think if you look at the returns in the market it says it is more worried about the fed than ukraine and russia right now. the nasdaq was the index that took it on the chin it was down 3.5.and most sensitive to rising rates. and we've pretty much known that powell is going to raise rates by a quarter of a point at its -- foc meeting next week to basically told us that that's what he was going to recommend. and it makes sense with inflation running at 7.9% clip they have to do it and focus is on what powell says about future

rate hikes also about quantitative tightening. >> so in this environment what could be stocks might you be buying? >> i would love to be able to say buy this and void that one but it is more about drivers take energy company pps the sector has had a great run. so you might. the to look at the ones who are able to reduce their debt loads because of these high oil prices. companies like petroleum and then you might topght look at something like a caterpillar. it builds trucks for mining and mining is something that hasn't been invested in a very long time and you're gong to see mining companies have to invest and they have to buy caterpillar machinery. >> got you so karl one of the thingings those caterpillar machines might be doing is digging for rare earth materials that we can't get out of russia anymore. talk to us a little bit about this mass exodus we've seen not a big surprise, but the speed and the unity of all of these companies getting out did surprise me. >> yeah we've seen more than 300

western-base companies either temporarily suspend or completely halt their business in russia i think most notable was a decision by mcdonald's to 850 stores in the region will be still paying workers but if you think symbolically when the first mcdonald's went into what was on soviet union in early 90s to pull back is very symbolic. but then you also look at some of the big banks like jpmorgan and goldman sachs they don't have a to be of exposure to region but they are looking to wind down their presence they have a little bit of credit exposure and they're going to either wind that down or take right down on that business. >> ouch. so what's the end game here? does mcdonald's never walk back into those stores? does starbucks close permanently from russia. how does that work? >> so this week, i mean, obviously, tensions have been rising. so you even have putin in the kremlin saying that they would potentially to nationalize some of these businesses that have

exited so, i mean, that's just, you know, end game completely. but even return to that call maybe more normal times is tough to imagine that happening without there being regime change in russia. >> is certainly is. so jack let's pivot to amazon, the stock split 20 times you have one share, you now have 20. the actual value of amazon did not change one bit. and yet, stocks shell higher. >> yeah it raises the question, if a dumb investment strategy makes money, is it still dumb? there's nothing about splitting a stock that should make company more valuable. if you take a pizza, and you cut it into more slices, you do in the get more pizza. eat fastering than other people that's how you get more pizza jack but investors seem to love stocks an they love buying lower price shares. whatever the reason, stocks have returned to arch of 21% over the year. following split announcement,

that's other the past five years. returns have been better than that. if you look back over decade, splits have become rare. over the past five years b of a security counts 28 of them. there were 12 times as many splits during the five years that ended in 2000. during the dot dom bubble and i think they stop splitting they said it doesn't make logical sense we're already cool. people already love us we don't need to do this but we're now in a tech slump companies are looking for ways to create a little more razz and you have alphabet 20 for one and stock jumped amazon as you say 20 for one and b of a more companies could follow -- >> wow. so this could be a tail wind for market whether it macs sense or not if all of these companies start splitting their prices may go up. we have to leave it there unfortunately guys. department of homeland security has been warning businesses to prepare for russian hack

attacks. cybersecurity expert christopher cybersecurity expert christopher krebs explains how i have moderate to severe ulcerative colitis. so i'm taking zeposia, a once-daily pill. because i won't let uc stop me from being me. zeposia can help people with uc achieve and maintain remission. and it's the first and only s1p receptor modulator approved for uc. don't take zeposia if you've had a heart attack, chest pain, stroke or mini-stroke, heart failure in the last 6 months, irregular or abnormal heartbeat not corrected by a pacemaker, if you have untreated severe breathing problems during your sleep, or if you take medicines called maois.

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>> ukraine has experienced multiple cyberattacks on government agencies since the war began and blaming russia. could the u.s. be targeted next? joining me now krebs group partnering and cybersecurity expert christopher krebs. chris, thank you so much for coming on the show we really appreciate your insights. i assume that low level cyberattacks from russians on u.s. targets are still continuing. how hikely is it that they could escalate into something really serious and are we prepared to defend against them? >> i think that's the question that many in the cybersecurity community and national security committee as well as business executives are thinking about right now. you know, russia has been undertaking a series of

cyberactivities here in the u.s. for over a decade now. you think back over the last several years some of more notable events including solar winds, some of the energy sector targeting of 2017 and '18 so always been here and been persistent and we as a defending community been on the lookout for them and i think over time we have absolutely improved our resilience not absolutely absolute security. but we have improved the resilience of american critical infrastructure both to detect and respond fairly rapidly to any attacks. >> so if they should get worse, and especially if we were unable to defend against them, at what point might the u.s. escalate our attacks and what would that look look? do we shut down medium size russian city? >> i don't think so that that would be in the playbook for the u.s. government. i think we have a different set of valuings and we would leave civilian targets out of it. instead, i expect what you would

see is -- the u.s. cybercommand or the intelligence community looking to take action against systems and infrastructure that allow the attack to take place as well as perhaps go after some of the security service networks in russia. but there are other risks, i think, that pus businesses need to be thition about and particularly as they consider or have already made that decision to exit the market. that could introduce some additional risk and targeting from some degree of retaliation from either russian cybercriminals or russian security services. >> and so in your world, are you seeing those companies beef up their defenses? >> absolutely. we've been working with a number of companies here in the u.s. and in europe, over the last several weeks to help them -- you know understand what's coming, and you know whether you like it or not, business is usual in russia just not a thing anymore.

and additional pressures that you see things like professor fled from yale school of management maintaining a list, of companies that have stayed in russia and so as these companies are making decisions to leave, they have to think about data, retention requirements, backups, hardening devices that may be in russia so they can't be compromised by the security services and protecting some of the intellectual property that may still reside within russia. >> that -- i want to pivot to ukraine two questions, first of all, what is the current status of whatever russian government hackers are doing if that's the right word doing in ukraine? and to your point about the grid, we haven't seen that in the ukraine either -- and i wonder is that because the russian hope is to take over the country and rather have the electrical grid still working? >> on your last point i think that's absolutely part of the

calculation but also relying upon domestic telecommunication networks in ukraine and tweal been reports and evidence that they're using commercial devices that again, that run on ukrainian networks. so it wouldn't serve their purposes to conduct some kind of attack on -- on ukrainian industries. >> it may be naive but if it is a behavioral thing i see the great reporting that u.s., the u.k. are doing on this war. and i know it is misinformation that russian citizens are getting. could white hat hackers or even governments do sort of the modern day equivalent of dropping leaflets somehow get actual news actual images in front of the russian people? >> there are russian citizens folks living inside russia that have ability to contact outside internet despite government efforts to limit access to facebook and twitter and they can use virtual private network

connects to tunnel back out so there is some western information that's getting in and then you see ukrainian i.t. army white hat hackers and other sympathetic types to help them go after russian organizations russian agencies and so yes, i think information is going to pierce this new digital iron curtain. but honestly, i think the more apparent indicators that something is amiss or, you know, very significantly amiss is the empty shelves that you're seeing at stores and russia. sanctions packages thafn dropped on the russians is really, you know, as you've talked about very devastating on the market and will create significant long-term economic problems for russian leadership. >> that's a great point we have to eve loo it there christopher krebs i want to thank you for your service to this country we didn't get a chance to talk about that but thanks very much. >> thanks for having me.

>> inflation at a 4046 year high how long could it last and what can you do to protect your can you do to protect your portfo

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inflation in another 40-year high last month at a 7 pnts 9.annual rate and that was before the big spike in gasoline prices over the past two weeks. where is inflation heading now? and how can the fed tackle it? joining me now andy at region atlantic, top barron rank advisory firm thank you so much for coming on the show. we really appreciate it so look we've all seen price at the pump. the inflation prints, price with grocery and i have to give you guys credit because i think it was over a year ago e i spoke your colleague warning about inflation you were setting clients up for that. okay, here we are -- how long does it last?

>> so that's a scary part what's happened over past few weeks is something with power to last a little bit longer. i say at this point inflation is likely to peak in april or may as all of the past plus higher gasoline prices makes its way but corn inflation will stay high. look at what's happening to rent running at highest leveling in a generation. something like that takes while to work its way through inflation will stay with us for at least a couple of more years. >> ouch, and it is global japan is just had a 9% precinct okay so now the fed is got to attack this. how high do rates need to go? >> sure, so if you have typical market participant they think rates will top out somewhere in 2, 2.5% range and that was before feds started to cut interest rates again and i would argue need to hike rates higher than that to have a material impact on rising prices and at

least a year and a half to get there so there's a lot of visibility and time for us to see this through. but interest rates could rise to 3% or more before this is all said and done. >> andy will that hurt the stock market and depending whether we go into recession what's your stock investors should be thinking? >> so it's very rare to have a bare market without a recession. and that's actually good news because the economy is on fire that's why the fed is raising interest rates. that said about when the fed is raising interest rates as quickly as it is likely to need to and be able to keep inflation down, is scope for large stock market gains are pretty limited. there's sol good news or at least the silver lining here when fed is hiking interest rates it creating an environment where stock market dips tend to be bigger. so if you're an investor and have cash on sidelines look for dips those are dips that are worth buying in otherwise fundamentally healthy economy. >> so i have a two-part question for you they be because you mention the disk but could you

give us any hints as to where we might find dips and on flipside where can we park our money in more states investors? >> sure that's a really good question let me answer two ways thanks to void and thanks to prefer. thanks to avoid will be things that don't do well when interest rates are rising and i'll point out one that has been lagging since november unprofitable or less profitable software firm these were beneficiary and money for the past ten years and now that investors are demanding actual free cash flow, these companies have a very long runway to be tiebl deliver it and would argue this is part of the market that will see bigger dips bigger downside what will hold up better? things that are more that seem to benefit from rising interest rates especially financials. banks insurers, been the from rising rates, and i'll give you another one that's protection against inflation real estate and scope for raising -- raising rent whether you're an e-commerce warehouse or

apartment building owner is really high today and that's going to feed through higher profits for rates. >> what does it mean for asset allocations is there a place for bonsdz and port poll woe portfolio with an environment like this? >> bonds are and you want to play defense in bongdz two ways to do that today. one own inflation protect securities. this is by way biggest clear danger today in the bond market by owning tips, what you do is you protect your principle against those rising prices because tips their printable value and more it goes up more you make. other way that you can protect yourself as a bond investor is by owning duration with less sensitivity to interest rates so if you're used to traditional buying bonds five to ten years out is typical maturely there look for bond that are short-term with focus on one to five year maturity that take significantly less interest rate risk is going to hold this

principle value much better in a rising rate environment. >> sounds like you guys think gdp will keep on rising? >> sure that i think economy is hot and likely to stay hot recession is really a very out of bounds expectation for this year and probably next year too. here's why, we've just gone through about 24 months of hibernation for american consumer. we've been stuck at home we've used some of our excess funds to buy durable goods like cars and refrigerators but we're chomping at the be the to be able to take a vacation to go out to dinner more often and spend money on services. that is really going to give the economy a strong lift because we have the capacity to spend and now that covid is in remission, we have the willingness to spend too. >> i stand on optimistic note i guess andy thank you very much for your time we really appreciate it. right now, a nickel is worth more than a dime. jack gives his two cents on that and ben has picks including mean stocks that might be as a struggling actor,

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>> sounds liexz opening of a dad joke when is nickel worth more than a dime but the toons that is actually now. >> price of nickel jumped 250% over two days this past week trading was halted in london. the issue, of course, is that russia is key supplier of high grade nickel. nickel is used in nickel as you say about 25% of the content. those are mostly copper also no one needs them. more importantly used in electric vehicle battery concerned about that and it is for stainless steel more important and do not panic jack there's no nickel shortage and plenty of low grade nickel in places like indonesia, and you know, companies that are figure

out ways to turn that into high grade use for battery and cars we wonts run out and stainless steel don't worry it is chromium that makes it stainless but nickel makes it more workable i learned that from nickel institute. >> i got to look that one up thanks so much. let's go to actionable ideas -- ben yours is a lot of fun. >> yeah, this is iron and cleveland cliffs a brief stint featured in unbox videos but doesn't need memes to do well an trade 5.6 and benefiting from rising iron prices and it has a lot of moment pulmoright now it is looking pretty interesting. >> that's a good looking shot right there. what's your idea? >> it is actually a idea taking a look at fmc agricultural chemical producer one it shows shaper than pearce so a catch-up play there and also a better on higher agricultural goods prices, obviously, farmer will

be looking for ways to increase their crop field. >> ukraine splice a lot of word's wheat ben carlton jack thank you to read more check out this week's edition at barrons.com got to mention it is also on annual list of the top 500 financial advisors in this country and barron online that is all for us. is all for us. we will see ... dr. michael youssef: i hope and trust that you are as challenged and encouraged and motivated by this series of messages, "never give up," based on the exaltation of the apostle paul to timothy, and i want you to write to me. tell me how god is using this unique series of messages to impact you. god bless. ♪♪♪