announcement for additional assistance to ukraine. we'll bring it to you as soon as he starts speaking. quick programing note, sean duffy will host inflation in america 5:00 p.m. eastern. todd, you're all right. thank you for sitting out entire hour. >> thank you, my friend. stuart. you're all right, friend, no matter what. five, four, three, two, noon, neil. neil: i like when you said one time you did it with me. stuart: you're young enough to be my son. neil: i don't think so, my friend. it is flattering actually it could be my son or my grandson. thank you very much. it was very riveting. i know how the new york st. patrick's day all started. we're waiting for the president of the united states in this country, what jerome powell and his buddies decide to do.

the betting seems to be that the fed is going to announce pretty soon that it hiked interest rates for the first time since 2018 to around a quarter of a percent. so we're at essentially zero. you know the consensus built on every fed meeting for the next six weeks, six weeks after that one, six weeks after that one we'll keep doing this year's end would still be the federal funds, that is the overnight lending bank. show you the 10-year note. the fed cannot control that rate that is under market forces here and market forces are looking at inflation and that's a real problem and those rates back up a little bit. sometimes they get so afraid thinking with the war and everything else, flight to quality and treasurys dollars, denominated investments and that all changes that is a flattening yield curve. we'll get into that.

meantime front and center what is going on in ukraine right now. ukrainian president zelenskyy addressing congress and making one last pitch for something he need more than anything else. >> our people are defending not only ukraine, we are fighting for the values of europe and the world, sacrificing our lives in the name of the future. i see no sense in life if it cannot stop the deaths. ♪. neil: all right. it was a slickly produced video that illustrated president zelenskyy's point, that all the aid in the world is welcome and, keep it coming but he does want and need that air support. signs in washington right now

that there might be cracks allowing for that or a way around the concerns about giving that. let's go to chad pergram on capitol hill. he was there for the big event today. these are rare events like this, certainly on capitol hill. chad? reporter: that's right, neil. zelenskyy's speech entranced lawmakers. he pleaded for help. it was the most important war-time address to congress by a foreign leader in eight decades. that is when winston churchill spoke to a joint meeting of congress in 1941 shortly after the bombing of pearl harbor. there is a reason why zelenskyy brought up pearl harbor today. >> translator: remember pearl harbor, terrible morning of december of 1941. when your skies were black of planes attacking you. just remember it. queer asking for an answer to the terror from the whole world. is this a lot to ask for to create a no-fly zone over

ukraine to save people? is this too much to ask? reporter: lawmakers are very skeptical about a no-fly zone. they're willing to provide ukraine with additional weapons. lawmakers fear a no-fly zone drags the u.s. into the conflict but zelenskyy may have changed some minds today. >> can do what he asks, no-fly zone with missiles as well as you can do it with air power. they have been very effective in the past -- [inaudible] i've been pushing for, a lot of people are pushing to get them. reporter: a no-fly zone is controversial because nato planes would have to bomb russian air defenses. nato would also have to shoot down russian planes. zelenskyy's goal was to move congress. that was similar to churchhill's goal in 1994. >> churchill was trying to

persuade united states for two years. they were divided between isolationists and especially in congress. they weren't going to get into the war unless they were thrust in the war. reporter: they are getting more from congress in the next few weeks but it is unclear whether they get the migs they requested. neil? neil: thank you, chad pergram. the president will address president zelenskyy and his remarks to congress today, talk of more aid, it should be coming any minute. we're told his position on a no-fly zone has not altered one bit. he fears that is a step too far. it could lead to world war iii. echoed by many white house officials, many on capitol hill. no matter the appeal on the part of president zelenskyy he is not expected to budge on that but stranger things have happened. let's go to edward lawrence at the white house with more. edward. reporter: neil, the no-fly zone, also those mig jets, that is

also a sticking point still here at the white house. they're pointing back to that assessment that was done by the defense department how that could escalate the situation, and give a target basically for the russian president outside of ukraine if it if takes off from an american airbase. folks at white house watched the speech speech by president zelenskyy, they watched him in english. he says we are the leader of our people, that means leading the people of world. and leader of peace. president biden will respond to president zelenskyy announcing 800 million in humanitarian assistance and aid. >> the steps we are taking are making it more difficult for president putin to build and augment his military. to access technology he needs and wants. taking steps to cripple the economy, regardless what kremlin spokespeople say it had a dramatic impact on the economy.

we're doing all of that while providing a historic amount of military assistance to the ukrainians helping them effectively fight back. reporter: but it has not reversed the invasion. president zelenskyy called to close the airspace or give ukrainians tools to do it themselves. republicans are saying president biden is taking too long to act. the necessary military equipment is not getting into ukraine fast enough. i think it is important to hear from the ukrainian president exactly what he said and when he changed over to english to deliver his message directly to president biden. listen to him here. >> in your country doesn't depend anymore on you and your people. it depends on those next to you and those who are strong. reporter: powerful words and the white house stressing the military equipment they have and access of ways to get it into ukraine to the places it needs to go even now. neil, back to you.

neil: edward lawrence, thank you my friend very much. waiting for the president ahead of that. tennessee senator bill hagerty joining us right now. senator, obviously pet -- president zelenskyy made it clear i need air support. close the sky over ukraine. is there a way to do that without providing mig fighters he wants or air support in general? how do we do that? >> neil, he was very clear with us a couple weeks ago when he met with senators over a zoom conference and he remained very clear he wants as much support as he possibly can get. i don't blame him one bit for asking, he also knows and acknowledges that it is very difficult for us to do as he requested. senator risch said they would be able to provide support from the ground that would have similar effect. javelins and stingers are have being impactful result to the russian army. that spread if you will in terms

of what is being delivered to what is being asked. neil: so where you're coming from, senator, you know, dealing with some of these other anti-aircraft weapons and the like but not aircraft, you would be against that? >> at this point you know i am trying to get to the bottom of how the administration has responded to the request for migs. poland could have delivered the migs directly. they chose not to. a different path, using a u.s. military base in russia. we had secretary of state antony blinken green light that. then the next day the pentagon walked that back. i reached out to get a classified briefing what is driving that decision. i think we need to be very careful as we move into this realm because we're dealing with very unpredictable leader in vladmir putin who has a very large nuclear capacity. neil: so your position, you have stressed stressed this and been consistent on it, got air route?

in other words go to no-fly zone and test it, akin to bringing us to the brink of world war iii, do you stand by that? >> i think it adds extra risks to the equation. vladmir putin is in a situation he didn't predict. i can only imagine he met with president xi at the opening of olympics. he told xi, this will be a quick experience. we'll be out in a few days. we'll divide nato, get the united states hung up. signed a favorable gas deal. putin goes day after olympics, he finds something that was very unexpected. a very aggressive ukrainian public. the ukrainians have risen up and fought back. president zelenskyy is a great communicator. he captured the imagination of not only ukrainians and inspired them but people around the world. we've been locked down two years, deployed of our liberty and freedom. president zelenskyy is stepping up and fighting for their liberty and freedom. everybody is supportive.

the question how we do it in most effective basis. neil: everyone is watching, china, as you know, senator, if it were to help military help on top of economic, that would be a red line. now would we, would you recommend sanctioning china if it, for example, buys the oil from russia it can't sell anywhere else? is that enough to wanter sanctioning china? >> neil this is something we need to be looking at very careful. i am. putting secondary sanctions on the russian banks, all of the russian banks. putting sanctions in a way that would prevent an alternative payment system to be put in place so china could do what you describe outside of the normal payment system. we need to be looking at all those areas. i'm completely in favor moving further in the sanctions bill to choke off vladmir putin's war machine. we've been funding it -- neil: does that include, senator, i'm sorry, i wasn't clear. does that include china for

paying for russia's oil? >> to the objection extent they use russian payment systems, absolutely. neil: okay. got it. senator bill hagerty, thank you good to see you again. >> thank you, neil. neil: john hannah, former national security advisor to vice president dick cheney. john, that does seem to be a wider dividing line when it comes to china. forget about just offering military aid to russia. if you so much as even buy their oil, the fact is you will be, you will be sanctioned yourself. what do you make of that? how likely is that? that opens up and widens certainly an economic mess here but what do you make of it? >> well i think it needs to be a credible threat against the chinese. i think it is powerful leverage over china the thought that they would now go to bat for this guy who has turned into an absolute

international pariah and risked the chinese economy by suddenly being sanctioned by the united states, by being further denied access to american high-tech or the american financial system, the use of the dollar. they will certainly have boomerang effects here on western economies, neil. i think the pain that would inflict on china, and for what? for replacing, getting into a russian economy that is 1/20 the size of the american economy? i think that would force president xi into a very difficult position and i think that ought to be the choice hanging over his head as he contemplates how far he wants to go in supporting this blatantly illegal invasion of ukraine. neil: john, we're waiting to hear from president biden meeting with top advisors on just how much more to help

ukraine apparently on top of the 13, $14 billion in aid already signed off on for ukraine. he is looking at upwards of another 800 million to a billion dollars to help them out but none of it includes air support or any of that. so if people were expecting him to be swayed by president zelenskyy's remarks to congress he appears not to be. is that a good or bad decision? >> listen, based on history and the way administrations have operated forever in the nuclear age, that crossing that line into direct head on head combat between the united states and what was then the soviet union, now is russia, is just ramping up the risk of nuclear armageddon and the destruction of the american homeland potentially. too far. that we'll do everything short of that. we will help the ukrainians, provide them everything they

need to defend their homeland, defend their people and insure that vladmir putin cannot achieve his maximalist war objectives but risking the destruction of the american homeland or raising that risk significantly i think, which a no-fly zone i think does. because that means american planes going up directly against russian planes and potentially american planes having toe bomb sites, air defense sites inside of russia, that that's a whole different ballgame and i don't think the american people are ready nor that, as sympathetic they are to the ukrainians. i don't think the american elite, political leadership either in the white house or in either party in congress you will find majorities for crossing that line. neil: and if they're not american planes, someone else's planes, same risk? >> i think that's a whole different question. the question of the mig-29s,

how they get to ukraine, and what kind of difference they would make for the ukrainian military as opposed to whatever incremental risk you would get that putin will somehow lash out against a nato country or poland, i think that is a much harder call. you would need access to our intelligence community and our military are saying, incremental benefit to the ukrainian air force is not going to be enough. putin will see this as an increase in threat. let's look at other systems that will actually be much more effective in protecting the skies, which is the air defense. the more advanced, beyond stingers, the things like the s-300 that president zelenskyy actually said explicitly we need. neil: all right. john hannah we'll see what we do, former national security advisor for dick cheney. couple things we're waiting on. president of the united states will react to president zelenskyy's remarks with the

promise of more aid maybe some of the azelenskyy is looking for maybe not exactly what he is looking for and probably not his most desired prize he is looking for. also waiting on the federal reserve. that will be a bit later two hours from now. when it is all set to raise rates. the cycle will start for the first time in about four years. you can't buy love. happiness. or confidence. but you can invest in them. at t. rowe price

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neil: well it's nice to be loved. kohl's, the big retail chain is getting a lot of outside interest. news jumping on the news canadian firm hudson and private equity firm sycamore are interested in acquiring the company. that like nothing else, good earnings, good sales, all of that, nothing really beats that kind of interest to see a stock pop up, it is up about 14 1/2% today. no word yet how kohl's is reacting to the outside interest. we'll keep you posted. meantime changes at starbucks, out with the new back in with the old i guess, as the ceo steps down, the guy who got the ball rolling, howard schultz steps in at stash bucks.

lauren simonetti has more. what is going on here? lauren: investors love him. this is the best day for starbucks since april 2020. howard schultz is revered at the company. he at the helm of starbucks and replacing kevin i don't know son. this is the third time i see him. this is context much the broader union push. 140 stores, 2states, want union elections. howard schultz long said starbucks doesn't need unions because of the relationship with its employees who it calls partners. investors might see this being anti-union for the company. take a look at retail sales. neil, inflation just hit the consumer again. retail sales increased by .3% last month. but that was down sharply from january's revised 4.9% print and this report doesn't fully capture that recent commodity spike after russia's invasion of

ukraine at the end of last month. investors are now waiting to see what fed chair jay powell says about all of this afternoon. another inflation story for you, bmw, says the war will hit its profitability. it cut its margin forecast for the year to between seven and 9%. that is down from 10% last year. first, there was the pandemic chip crisis. now automakers are having trouble getting auto parts from ukraine. so don't expect the cost of any car to go down anytime soon. and finally here, doordash, neil, their delivery drivers that use the company's debit card, they will get 10% cash back when they fill up their gas tanks. here you have the company reimbursing drivers to offset gas prices where you look what is happening at uber and lyft, customers are paying fuel surcharges to help out the drivers but inflation, neil, has hit all aspects of our life in a big way and retail sealings

showing a pullback. neil: yeah, it is the kind of stuff like you say, that the federal reserve is worried about as it spreads its tentacles wide and far. thank you, lauren simonetti. federal reserve less than two hours away from announcement widely telegraphed, pretty much expected a quarter-point hike in the overnight lending rate known as federal funds, rates over which the fed has no control backing up maybe in anticipation of that, or maybe concerns that the fed is behind the curve. dave maney follows this closely. dave, are you in that quarter point today, quarter point every fed meeting, every six weeks when they gather? anything that could jostle that? >> anything? yeah, anything but, not today i don't think, neil, around i think that is a strategy they are going to have to follow because we have put our foot in it from an inflation nair ray standpoint and the putting our

foot in it started two years ago when we decided to shut down the economy. we busted up the supply chain. we pumped money in at the top to insure there was demand but without supply. making inflation the inevitable outcome and the, and i don't see any other way to pull that out of the system. we all thought inflation was dead, dead and permanently dead. we found out if you do enough bad things in the management of the economy that in fact it can come roaring back. i don't see any other way to take it back out. neil: so if you just use the quarter point every fed meeting math by year-end we would be at around 2% for the fed funds rate and the argument is to go to historical norms, you have to be kind of around where even the inflation rate is. i seriously doubt even by then we would be at a 2% inflation

rate. it would have to go much higher still, right? >> yeah, you think so. look, you can convince yourself that the, that the energy price spike that is in it will come draining back out at some point. i believe that, maybe, depending how the biden administration decides how big of an existential crisis is, posed by global warming as opposed to nuclear war. that will have a determination on, you know, somewhat but, even with that energy sort of drag coming out you're still to your point, we are, you know, it ain't going to be 2% at the end of the year. so, yeah, you could see the trajectory going up for miles ahead. neil: dave maney, thank you, i think, dave. i think. your forecast might be right but something to sort of digest. i appreciated that, my friend. well i heard of doctors who

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neil: the president is expected to go to brussels next week. some thought he might check in on poland. i think the pols would appreciate it. they have done the lion's share of the work helping out refugees fleeing ukraine. they have accounted for half of some three million who found their way out of the country. ashley webster is in poland right now. ashley. reporter: neil, you're absolutely right. we know the president is going to brussels. there is rumors he could come to

poland and poland would love that because they need to tell him they need help. interesting, we'll follow that development. we're right on the border here as latest wave of refugees come through. no doubt number of refugees has not slowed down time we've been here. picked up even more. three million in the last 20 days. two million here in poland. spoke to a young lady by the name of katrina. she came from zume on southern border with russia. she left when the town came under attack. she is very worried for her husband. she explains why. take a listen. >> he is a soldier. don't ask me about it. i don't know how i leave him there. reporter: when was last time you spoke to him? >> every time i call am afraid to hear something.

reporter: this is polish safety but also the beginning of another challenge, finding a place to stay. poland says many cities are at their breaking point. they can no longer cope with the exodus. they need help now. >> it is very challenging. some of them have family or friends outside of ukraine. a lot of them do not have that opportunity so it's, like who do you know? they know friends friends that are there and sometimes it is just going into the unknown and taking it one day at a time. reporter: you know the word, neil, crisis is bandied about a lot in the media but this truly is a humanitarian crisis with more, between 50 and 80,000 i'm given, come across the border into p the u.n. put out a state today, that every second a child is displaced in ukraine that number

could go higher as the conflict goes on. back to you. neil: just incredible. ashley, great reporting. thank you my friend. ashley webster in poland following that very closely. there are a lot of needs in ukraine to put it mildly. a lot of those refugees who want to leave they're battling ailments in their own bodies. some can make the trip, it is a perilous trip, some can't. dr. jenette nesheiwat decided to go to the belly of the beast so to speak. she is in lviv, ukraine, helping people that desperately need medical attention. dr. nesheiwat, that is a hell of a house call there but you're desperately needed. what did you discover when you get there? >> what i'm seeing now, neil, the brutality is not letting up. i'm having more and more patients, more and more refugees, they're ill with more serious diseases and ailments. i started off today with a

90-year-old man came in with chest pain. he was disheveled and homeless. he fled kherson. his home was attacked. we had to get him care he needed. another person came from zume. she was crying. i asked her what happened? she said she injured self fleeing from the attacks trying to go under ground. i asked what was the most difficult part of journey on the train, the long journey? being attacked. their train was attacked as they were trying to flee. a lot more illnesses, a lot more disease. we need to support the ukrainians as much as we can, it is not getting any easier, neil. neil: so when you talk to the ukrainians, doctor, especially those that want to leave but right now can't, that has got to complicate things, right? some are old. some are dealing, you know, with

physical ailments. but it is a lot more than we thought, isn't it? >> you're absolutely right. some of the patients that i'm seeing, they run out of their blood pressure medicine. i had a patient today all the way from kyiv. she was happy to be able to get out with her family safe but her blood pressure was sky-high and she needed it. otherwise you can have a stroke, you can have a heart attack, if your blood pressure is out of control. they don't have their medicines and trying to flee to poland and other countries. they don't have a doctor there yet. they can't go two weeks, three weeks without their medication. that is dangerous. we try to get them medications that they need. we're trying to get medicines sent out to them to those who can't leave their home because it is so dangerous. it's a challenge. volunteers are being attacked. they're being injured. it is very risky and dangerous. so we got to do the best we can and pray we can get everyone the help they need but it's a real serious challenge. neil: you're doing the lord's work as they say, doctor, in a

very dangerous conditions. thank you for that. i'm sure they're thanking you as well. dr. jenette nesheiwat following all of that in lviv, ukraine. by the way i want to pass along, speaking of ukraine, they say, they say they're both sides making positive developments in ongoing talks. russian foreign minister is going so far to say the talks are looking more realistic. there is hope for reaching a compromise. separately and again ukraine's president has echoed that the nato membership thing isn't the be-all-end-all as if to say we can give up some things. maybe they can give up some things but that talk alone has propelled a little bit more buying than we usually see and we're seeing it now. stay with us. you are watching fox business. ♪.

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neil: all right. fuel costs go up and companies have to find a way of passing along that or dealing with that. in the case as you just heard a little while ago, doordash, the big food delivery service trying to boost gas money for those drivers that they have. that could be passed along to you but the latest is lyft following the likes certainly of uber in charging up to 55 cents for each ride. that will go directly from the riders, then to the driver. in other words a surcharge built into whatever your lyft and uber costs are to take care of higher fuel prices. no indication if the fuel prices reverse, whether that surcharge will reverse. sometimes harder to get rid of surcharges then to implement them. we shall see. we're following that. following saudi arabia. there was a time i think saudis were a friend, between not even budging on oil production, and now this latest move to maybe,

maybe, start working with china and pricing oil in the yuan, of course their currency. you have got to wonder what is going on here. rich edson following all of this at the state department. rich, what is going on here? reporter: good afternoon, neil this would be a significant shift in the relationship between the united states and saudi arabia. it would be a hit to u.s. dominance of the global oil market t would represent a shift from saudi arabia away from the united states and towards china. this is all according to a report in "the wall street journal" which says this had been in discussions for several years between the two countries but those talks really accelerated over the past year. the journal reports that the saudi government is unhappy with american security guaranties as it also invites chinese president xi xinping for an official visit. the state department says the administration has no specifically reaction to this story and says the u.s. is always willing to compete with china. >> we seek to do is give them

choices and to make partnership with the united states and all that we bring to the table, all that we can bring to a bilateral relationship. make sure that countries, partners, around the world know how appealing that is. reporter: five years ago then president donald trump selected saudi arabia as his first foreign stop as president. also fostered a much closer relationship with the kingdom. since then the biden administration remember, president biden has called saudi arabia a pariah because of its human rights record and its war against the houthis in yemen. the administration revoked the u.s. terrorist designation of the houthis. saudis are opposed to reviving the 2015 nuclear deal which they say would give iran a path to billions of dollars in revenue in exchange for only temporary caps on its nuclear program. another shift on all of this the united states produced a lot more oil for itself over the decades. about a quarter of the oil the

united states once got from saudi arabia every day, when you compare that to the 1990s. used to be 2 million barrels a day the u.s. would import from saudi arabia. now it is about a half million. neil? neil: with friends like those, what is the old expression? rich, thank you very, very much. rich edson at the state department. we want to take you to the white house now. we know it is getting close. the president of the united states will respond to president zelenskyy and his plead to congress to get more aid, particularly the kind way up in the air. there are indications right now that joe biden isn't about to do that but he is holding out aid of another sort. we'll spell it all out, or he will after this. what happens when performance... meets power? you try crazy things... ...because you're crazy... ...and you like it. you get bigger...

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neil: you know much matter what city you're in in ukraine. they all want the same thing as president zelenskyy was saying air support. someone to police the skies. we're waiting to hear from the president of the united states thinks about that we kind of know already he is not too keen on it. he is ready to offer more aid. we'll go to him when he speaks. mike tobin in la very much, ukraine with the latest how things are looking there. mike. reporter: tell you this, neil,

an aide to president zelenskyy, a member of the sees fire delegation says ukrainians are launching counteroffensive in several operational areas. evidence that, satellite image in the town much kherson. ukrainian forces launched an offensive what appears to be russian helicopters on the tarmac. kearse sown is key strategic city to the sea and path of odesa which seems to be in russian sites. russia took kherson and ukrainians are making it difficult to advance to from kherson. russian forces are opting for long-range fire. things like gun artillery and rockets. that appears to be a rocket or mortar striking an apartment building in kyiv. multiple injuries, multiple casualties. further evidence of russians hitting civilian targets. civilians have been punished in the town of mariupol for two

weeks. bloodshed is so serious that they resorted to mass graves. multiple attempts at a cease-fire. so people can get out of there. 3,000 people have made it out of the town of mariupol on rout to zaprish where there fighting is less severe n another town ukrainians lined up to get bread. russians opened fire on them and according to staff members 10 people were killed in cold blood. neil: doesn't stop. mike tobin, following the latest in lviv. go to harry ka-zinis. we're waiting to hear from president biden what additional aid he wants to offer, despite

president zelenskyy using 9/11 and pearl harbor the time has come for help of ukraine and specifically a no-fly zone in part, that part doesn't seem he will get. if he does not, what do you think happens? >> well, neil, i think the president would be 100% in the no-fly zone. that is a path to world war iii. i think i don't need to go down there but i think the best things we can give the ukrainians are military platforms they already know how to use. i heard talk about giving them mig-29s. unfortunately polish mig-29s are very different than mig-29s. it would take a few weeks to use them. talking about s-300s, again from bulgaria, romania will not be the same as ukrainian s-300s. because it shares the same way doesn't mean it is the same or works the same way. the best things we can do will be boring people won't like it,

more javelins, stingers, laws, body armor, medical aid, food. these are not sexy things like aircraft or mig-29s but these things are proving most effective. think about this we have given the ukrainians 22,000 anti-tank missiles. the russian army has own 12,000 tanks. we're flooding the zone with weapons. we have to keep the same pressure. i know people want to do more. this is working. neil: you know, harry, on a parallel track are these peace talks. while they certainly haven't been very promising or forthcoming maybe i'm overinterpreting some of the chatter around these latest discussions, have me wondering whether something could be changing, from the russian foreign minister, we're hearing that he would, by extension, i guess he is saying vladmir putin would be open to a neutral

ukraine with an army, with their own standing army, and that could be a compromise. he didn't call it a compromise, that is how it is interpreted. president zelenskyy for the third time in the past week has echoed his view that being a part of nato isn't an end all and be all. he reminded people it wasn't russia that was shooting that down, no pun intended long before the ukraine. it was fellow nato members or potential fellow nato members who weren't keen on it. so he seems be throwing that out there as well. what do you make of these overtures? am i overanalyzing them or what? >> no, you're spot on, neil. a couple things we see right off the bat. we are getting close to something. first thing, ukraine is never joining nato. i don't think that ever was going to happen in the first place. i think it was a dream, maybe 10, 20 years down the road but

that is never going to happen, not with russian soldiers occupying ukrainian territory that is a nonstarter. i think what we're going to see, neil, what i call imperfect peace. maybe not a peace treaty. maybe like an like korean pa anyonela. we flood the zone with m-1 abram tanks retired, warthogs, we arm them up like we've done with taiwan in a lot of ways. i don't think we'll get to a point where both sides agree on a treaty to end the conflict. maybe they will stop, stop whereforeses are now. maybe the russians pull back a little bit. i think this will end up being a situation where ukraine is essentially a broken country. georgia, looking what russia has done in crimea. essentially a country broken in two. in some respects the russians

have achieved their goal, that ukraine will never join nato. that's that. neil: but if zelenskyy remains in power and they have some autonomy, you're saying the bigger issue would be the proximity to russian troops whether inside the country or those breakaway russian favored republics, the russian troops are still alive and well and there, right? >> exactly. this is an ulcer upon europe. this is the real challenge. i wish we had a way to push the russians out, get the status quo back, rebuild ukraine that will be impossible at this point. the russians want to use this as a pressure cooker. that is really what the danger is and why the tensions, neil, may never go away. neil: they never do, harry, thank you very much. i appreciate it. corner of wall and broad, dow up 299 points. maybe outlining something mt. zelenskyy won't flip over but some progress.

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neil: all right, so waiting for the president, the markets are more interested in waiting for the federal reserve, and what's going to happen on the interest rate front. they are expected to raise it for the first time in about four years. edward lawrence at the white house with more on that, hey, edward. reporter: so we're widely expect ing to have a 25 basis point increase of the federal funds rate, it's at zero now but there are two voting numbers at least on the fomc committee that would like to see a 50 basis

point increase. now at the heart of all of this is inflation, and how to deal with it, but its been complicated over by a few things recently. first the invasion of ukraine that spiked gas prices, also china locking down again in certain areas, mainly the manufacturing, because the spread of covid in that country. that further affects supply chains coming up, and again, could drive up prices. this will be a very tough needle for the federal reserve to thread as some economists are starting to predict a recession this year, as starting as soon as this summer. now the federal reserve maintains it's an independent body and only looks at the data to make the decisions, but its members will be looking at the gas policies and seeing no signs of change in supply here at home for that long term supply. president biden seems to be out now. i'll go back to you, neil. >> i want to begin by thanking president zelenskyy for his passionate message this morning. i listened to it in private residence, and he was convincing

and a significant speech. he speaks for people who have shown remarkable courage and strength in the face of brutal aggression. courage and strength that's inspired not only ukrainians but the entire world. putin is inflicting appalling, appalling devastation and horror on ukraine, bombing apartment buildings, maternity wards, hospitals. i mean, its god awful. i was speaking about this with our commander behind me here, general milli. i mean, it just is amazing. yesterday, we saw reports that russian forces were holding hundreds of doctors and patients hostage in the largest hospital in mariupol. these are atrocities. they are an outrage to the world , and the world is united in our support for ukraine and our determination to make putin pay a very heavy price.

america's leading this effort, together with our allies & partners providing enormous levels of security and humanitarian assistance that we're adding to today and we're going to continue to do more in the days and weeks ahead. we're crippling putin's economy with punishing sanctions that's going to only grow more painful overtime with the entire nato and eu behind us and many other countries. what's at stake here are the principles that the united states and the united nations and across the world stand for. it's about freedom. it's about the right of people to determine their own future. it's about making sure ukraine never, will never be a victory for putin no matter what advances he makes on the battlefield. the american people are answering president zelenskyy's call for more help, more weapons for ukraine to defend itself, more tools to fight russian aggression, and that's what we're doing. in fact, we started our assistance to ukraine before this war began as they started

to do exercises along the ukrainian border the russian s started in march of last year. we took the threat of putin invading very seriously and we acted on it. we sent ukraine more security systems last year, $650 million in weapons including anti-air and anti-armor equipment before the invasion. more than we had ever provided before, so in the invasion began , they already had in their hands the kinds of weapons needed to counter russian advances and once the war started we immediately rushed 350 million additional aid, further addressing their needs. hundreds of anti-air systems thousands of anti-tank weapons, transport helicopters, armed patrol boats, and other high- mobility vehicles, radar systems that help track incoming artillery and unmanned drones, secure communications equipment and tactical gear, satellite imagery and analysis capacity, and it's clearly helped ukraine inflict dramatic losses on

russian forces. on saturday, my administration authorized another $200 million to keep a steady flow of weapons and ammunition moving to ukraine now i'm once again using my presidential authority to activate an additional security assistance to continue to help ukraine fend off russia's assault, an additional $800 million in assistance. that brings the total of new u.s. security assistance to ukraine to $1 billion just this week. these are the direct transfers of equipment from our department of defense to ukraine military, help them as they fight against this invasion. now, i thank the congress for appropriating these funds. this new package is going to provide unprecedented assistance to ukraine. it includes 800 anti-aircraft systems to make sure the ukrainian military can continue to stop the planes and helicopters that have been attacking their people and to

defend their ukrainian air space and at the request of president zelenskyy, we have identified and are helping ukraine acquire additional longer-range anti- aircraft systems and amunitions for those systems. our new assistance package also includes 9,000 anti-armor systems. these are portable high accuracy shoulder-mounted missiles that the ukrainian forces have been using with great effect to destroy invading tanks and armor ed vehicles. it'll include 7,000 small armed machine guns shot guns grenade launchers to equip the ukrainian s including the brave women and men who are defending their cities as civilians and they are on the countryside as well and as well as the ammunition, artillery and mortar rounds to go with small arms, 20 million rounds in total. 20 million rounds. this will include drones which demonstrates our commitment to

sending our most cutting-edge systems to ukraine for its defense, and we're not doing this alone. our allies & partners have stepped up to provide significant shipments of security systems and will continue to help facilitate these deliveries, as well. the united states and our allies & partners are fully committed to surging weapons of assistance to the ukrainians, and more will be coming, as we source additional stocks of equipment that we're ready to transfer. now, i want to be honest with you. this could be a long and difficult battle but the american people will be steadfast in our support in the people of ukraine in the face of putin's immoral unethical attacks on civilian populations. we are united in our abhorence of putin and we are going to continue to have their backs as they fight for their freedom, their democracy, their very survival and we're going to give ukraine the arms to fight and defend themselves through all the difficult days ahead.

we're going to continue to mobilize humanitarian relief to support people within ukraine and those that have been forced to flee ukraine. in just the past few weeks we provided $300 million of humanitarian assistance to the people in ukraine and in neighboring countries. tens of thousands of tons of food, water, medicine, and other basic supplies to support the people in need. our experts on the ground in poland and maldova, and other neighboring countries are there to make realtime assessments of the rapidly-evolving crisis and leading the humanitarian supplies and people in need when they need it, and we will support ukraine's economy with direct financial assistance as well, and together with our allies & partners, we will keep up the pressure on putin's crumbling economy, isolating him on the global stage. that's our goal. make putin pay the price, weaken his position, while strengthening the hand of the ukrainians on the

battlefield at the negotiat ing table. together, with our allies & partners, we're going to stay the course and we'll do everything we can to push for and end this tragic unnecessary war. this is a struggle that hits the appetites of an autocrat against humankind's desire to be free and let there be no doubt, no uncertainty, no question, america stands with the forces of freedom. we always have and we always will. i want to thank you all and god bless you and now i'm going to walk over and sign this legislative, sign this bill that will allow the drawdown of materials and may god protect ukrainians while they are defend ing their country. what i'm signing here is the

delegation for assistance. >> [cameras shuttering] reporter: mr. president what will it take for you to send the migs to president zelenskyy he's asking for? >> i'm not going to comment right now. i'm not going to comment. thank you. >> [overlapping speakers] reporter: mr. president, quickly , you did just say that putin is going after maternity wards, hospitals, are you ready to -- >> let's go guys, quickly, for the next event. neil: all righty then, that went well the president of the united states signing $800 million in more direct military aid here, but when it comes to the u.s.

helping to provide a flow-fly zone over ukraine and the ukrainian president zelenskyy had urged talking to congress remote today, that is not happening, and the administration is making it very clear that there are real dangers to that and we'll not entertain it now but coming close with anti-aircraft missile s and technologies that the could take down russian craft, these are weapons being provided to the ukrainians, but again, there's a lot of access points are choked off to ukraine , not only does it make it difficult for refugees to get out of the country, but for aid to come into the country who knows that better than connell mcshane, finally, safely back, stateside from all of these countries that are taking in a lot of these refugees. connell, first of all, you're a great anchor, but man oh, man you're a hell of a reporter and i think a lot of it has to do with the fact at how well you listen. you listen to all these people,

both in the countries you visit ed, the ukrainians going in there, but the open arms, the polls, and others who were happy to take them and deal with all the grief. i'm just wondering, connell, when you hear what's going on right now and you saw it up close, you know what the ukrainians are saying, without some air support or help, you're going to see a lot more refugees and these neighbor ing countries a lot more burdened. you can understand his rationale , the president's rationale for this , but to the ukrainians, i'm sure it's disappointment. connell: yeah, i mean, we heard it from just the regular people there, neil, that usually the phrase be you have to close the sky, it's a phrase they borrow from their president zelenskyy had said something very similar earlier in his address to congress, so you know , the push for the no fly zone has been there for the last few weeks, but the pushback has been just as aggressive on the u.s. side that it seems like

it's a complete non-starter, did think it was interesting that the president when he took the one question which he obviously didn't directly answer from the press there, that he didn't rule out the fighter jet question there with the polish fighter jets which has been up in the air for a week or more. he didn't say we're not doing it he just said we're not going to comment on it so there is the possibility that is still on the table and the other thing i'd add there, the president was talking about tripling the russian economy and there has been a big move to do that, certainly helped along by the fact that so many western corporations have literally moved out of russia and did so in about a week and basically shut off that economy for all in tense and purposes to the outside world. there's going to be other economic aid that is needed as well in the countries that we visited. we were in poland, slovakia and hungary, but especially in poland, that nation is taking in so many refugees now that it is, at some point, going to be something that we, you know, being the world community, has to deal with as well, just in terms of population. i mean, poland's population i

was looking just at the overall population of the country, stuck on like 38 million since the late 80s going to be at 40 million but then some of these big cities like krakaow which is a three hour drive from the border they have ic tariff en in 100,000- plus refugees in a short amount of time so yes this is so complicated neil as you know but the russian economy is in many ways crippled. that was the goal of the sanctions we'll see what the effect of that is long term in terms of putin's planning in ukraine but pretty soon we'll have to start talking about economic aid to these other countries taking in so many people they don't have a few weeks ago. neil: yeah, i was wondering, connell, as you were mentioning that if any of the 13 or 14 billion that the president had earlier announced, you know, when he was talking in his state of the union address, whether any of that would get to these countries because just since that time, the situation has gotten far more perilous. connell: i was watching ashley webster's report earlier and it looks more crowded than when we

were in poland and that makes the point the aid money maybe allocated and that we said we're going to get it but getting it into the hands of the people who need it in the right amount of time is another story altogether and i think that is going to be really really tough here, because when we went this shot along the border is part of it to talk to people and on the border crossing which isn't very far from there, most of the help that is being given by volunteers at border crossings like that is literally being given by volunteers, not by organized groups. now the red cross has started to move in there's some more organization but you know it's striking how much just regular people are stepping up to try to help, but then at the same time, as impressed as you are by that, and as overwhelming as it is and as well-organized on a relative basis as its been in the first few weeks given the fact that it's not some big organization, how long can that last where you literally have this being kind of made up day by day, people coming in, trying to help and

doing the best that they can. at some point, we'll need large organizations to be well-funded and take care of the logistics of this , because to the point you're making, its already been overwhelming but it's only going to get more the longer this drags on and the longer people who had planned maybe to stay two or three weeks hope for the best and go back, realize that that's just not going to be the case. neil: real quickly, just curious to get your take on this aspect, connell, we're told right now that peace negotiations, if that's what you want to call them, are yielding some potentially promising results. i don't want to get people over- excited about this but you know, the russians are open to and independent, what the they call an independent or neutral ukraine but the fear is, i'm sure you witnessed this yourself among ukrainians who just don't trust the russians, and of course they've been attacked in these so-called humanitarian passageways when they would catch up with you in poland or slovenia, these other places,

do you think that a peace agreement that has that guarantee will affect this passage rush out of the country, or will people still say no, no, no, once bitten more than twice shy. connell: if i may, i think you'll see people make both decisions, neil just human nature on that but i will say that there are a number of people we spoke to who are waiting and waiting to go back the first chance they can, because remember, what makes this refugee crisis so unique and so difficult to even watch and kind of take in is that the fact this whole women and children coming across the border to a country they maybe in some cases never been to before but they are doing without their husband's and leaving family behind literally, so that i think is why so many people are staying as close as they can. sure people are going to other parts of europe as we reported. a lot of people are staying pretty close to the border because they want to go back and the last point i'd make, neil, is there are a bunch of people staying from what we've heard over and over again, in lviv and the surrounding areas of western

ukraine that have moved from kharkiv or some other hard hit area in the east and they haven't even left their country yet so those people, they don't want to leave and they want to go back so any little thing that will allow them to go back to their home, i think people would love to take advantage of that. that's what they want to do. neil: thank you, connell and again, thank you for that incredible reporting. your ability just to listen, take it all in, that's important that's important, we forget that connell mcshane, safely back here in the united states. enis elson joins us the ukrainian parliament member, and jumping for joy on these latest offers of more weapons for her beautiful country to help fight the russians, i don't know, but she's here now to talk about that. you know, always good to have you and thanks for coming back. you might have heard from president biden a promise of more military support, but not the kind of air support, i know, president zelenskyy was seeking earlier today or that you've

been talking about for many days what do you think? >> well, some kind of no-fly zone is still crucially essential for us . it's basically like this. if we don't cover our sky in one way or another, all the other weapons will be great but they will not save us from the massive bombardment from air that the russians are continuing to do. just about 40 minutes ago, we learned that the russians and yet another air strike over mariupol dropped a huge bomb on the theatre there, where thousands of people have been in hiding for two weeks. they're now trying to establish if someone survived that bomb, but it's just terrible and that's just yet another example of why we need to cover the skies so much because they will continue to do that no matter what we're doing on the ground. neil: sergey lavrov, the foreign

minister is saying these attack that have cost civilian lives are not a goal of russia, that they're not intended. last time i had you on you thought they very much were part of the russian strategy to target civilians. do you still feel that way? >> very much so. so it's like that. ukraine has been fighting russia , and has been women, the russian army was not able to get into a single major city on the ground and actually right now, we are under two days curfew, which was imposed specifically from what we understand now because the major counter-offensive has started on the ukrainian side with the ukrainian army trying to push the russian army from the northwest of kyiv. the russian army was not able to get into the city of kharkiv, which is 40 kilometers from the russian border heavily bombarded from air but the ukrainian army pullly pushed them further from the boundaries from the city of kharkiv.

even in mariupol, they are not in the city, as of right now, so they cannot fight us on the ground. our army is strong, it is committed, we are grateful again for the support in terms of weapons that we got from the west, i don't mean to be ungrateful that was extremely useful and then helpful, so they cannot fight us on the ground, and that is why they are resort ing to what they can do, is fight and that's why they are opening fire on humanitarian corridors. again, an hour ago, we learned that yet another humanitarian corridor from mariupol was hit by russians, again. they are opening fire, they are throwing bombs on our residential buildings and residential areas, on schools, on theaters, on hospitals, on maternity hospitals, that is what they are capable of doing, just because they cannot fight us on the ground, so yes, this is their method of conduct ing war. it's not something that is happening by itself. this is a strategy by the russian army. this is the level of evil that

they represent and there is nothing saint to them. they are just, this is okay for them to kill civilians, to kill children and to kill disabled people. neil: inna, if you don't mind, finally as a member of parliament, one of the offers, the russians are apparently making, and we're learning this from the russian foreign ministers office, so you can take this or reject it as you wish, that they're open, that is the russians, are open to a neutral ukraine, even one with an army and by extension, that seems to mean that president zelenskyy or parliament members could stay in office. that's me making that leap, not the russians, but that's what it seems like. what do you make of that, that they be open to that but you'd have to be a neutral country, with no intention of ever joining nato.

what do you think? >> well first of all, it's not for russians to fight. it's not their country, it's our country and it's our choice and that choice has been made by ukrainian people actually, but what is more important, and i think that that's important to explain to the audience again and again and again. ukraine was a neutral state in 2014, which was officially part of the constitution, we're officially neutral state with no established call that we want to join nato anytime soon. at that time, they an nexed crimea and this is what this neutrality led us to and now they are saying that if you keep neutral, thinking about 2014, i'm thinking about 14,000 people killed in eight years of war, and i'm saying no thank you we don't want the neutrality that is guaranteed by you because the previous time we were neutral you actually started the war on not the whole of ukraine but you know, it's a

big part. it's our sovereign territory. neil: very well-put and i had a feeling you'd say that. please be safe, your family as well. very good catching up with you. thank you, inna. >> thank you. thank you so much. goodbye. neil: in the meantime here we're waiting on a lot here including a republican response to what the president outlined, many republicans now are saying we have to sort of up the ante here because the russians clearly are in one air strike after another and now this one that inna outlined on a theatre that had a lot of people sort of hunkering down inside that, so there are probably casualty counts to come on that. also waiting for the federal reserve in about 45 minutes away maybe 50 minutes away from doing something that they have not done in four years, raise interest rates. the cycle starts today. i promise - as an independent advisor -

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neil: all right, you know, i know we like to show the 10 year note and the dow up about 259 points and all that. i almost get a kick out of if we just showed you where federal funds rate the rate that the fed charges, you know, how it's doing. right now it's at about 0%, you know, give or take 100 points not the 10 year right now that's something the fed can't control but its been backing up on the idea that inflation is real, the fed is pouncing on it and the reality is that the cycle is on but what's interesting when you look at fed funds is we're starting from 0. we are at ground-ground level and the betting seems to be that every fed meeting we're going to get another quarter point hike, which would take us to 2% by the end of the year something like that. larry glazer with us, and kenny polcari. larry you could make a good argument at 2% by year-end we still have a ways to go. >> we do have a ways to go and if it continues if inflation in

the economy continues on the path we're on we'll be still well behind the eight ball which is why i like a lot of other people really thought the fed should have gone 50 basis points in march and then left the door wide open but made it very clear that another 50 would come sooner rather than later. a full 1% is not going to, we're still behind the eight ball even at that but it would send a very different message than this , you know, tip toeing at 25 basis point at every meeting like as if they gotta go slow as if no one recognizes that inflation is not an idea, it is in fact a reality and something needs to be done about it. neil: you know, i don't know whether, larry, you're in the camp that the fed is late to do this so many other countries have been raising interest ratings, i think new zealand for the third time, we're seeing a number of european countries doing it for the second or third time. is there a feeling that even that quarter point every six weeks is enough or should he be doing more, or looking at intra

-meeting hikes, bigger hikes, what? >> you know, neil, i think if you ask retirees today, if the fed has done enough they would see they are get negative real interest rates, right? they aren't earning anything on their savings but their costs are rising they see 40 year inflation they have lived through inflation. they also know that you go back 40 years ago, you had interest rates double-digits so you could argue the fed is way behind the ball here, and again, those negative interest rates, it's painful, the fed has to make a difficult decision, they are grappling with global supply issues grappling with rising food, rising energy, but at the same time, they are devastating retirees and families and if they raise interest rates too much the fear is you defer as tate the housing market. we saw just today, retail sales numbers, and we're starting to see a dent in that from these rising food, rising fool prices so the concern is if the fed is too aggressive and they try to normalize thing it's late to the game, think ecould cause more harm than good, and we don't

want to see that. neil: you know, rarely has the fed gotten this right in its long history, kenny. you can over do it, a soft landing turns to a crash or whatever so it is a tough sort of needle-to-thread, i don't know if you ever tried to thread a needle i can't because i'm blind as a bat but just a good analogy and it's going to be a tough one for them so i'm wondering if you can orchestrate getting inflation down and still keep what's underlying strong economy going as well. >> well, listen. i think they could have pulled it off had they had this conversation that started this process kind of in summer of 2021 when everybody started talking about the building pressures while inflation wasn't out of control, you could see it on every report that it was building and building and billing and had the fed been more proactive and there were plenty of conversations about it but he kept telling us the worry

we got it under control it's transitory nothing to worry about. had they been more proactive in july, august, september of last year, yes they could have maneuvered a soft landing. i think this is going to be a hard landing and to larry's point listen, i love you but i've got to tell you something. devastating the housing market should not necessarily be what's on the feds plan. the housing market has gotten pa rabolic, so it's way, way, way out of price, with what most americans can afford. i'm not saying you got to destroy it but you've got to also bring that back in so people feel like they can participate because right now, the ones that are priced out are priced out of housing and they are going to get priced out of rent. >> look, i think kenny makes a really good point and if this trend continues, especially when you think about food prices how critical that is to families , soaring, even kenny will switch to a low carb diet, no pasta, because wheat prices are soaring, because of this and kenny one more thing, you can forget about the new iphone for

christmas, because the factories are shut in china, and their supply chain issues will be devastating, kenny, so beef jerkey is through the roof, wheat prices is through the roof , we're all going to feel it and the fed is just the tip of the iceberg, they can't solve the problem. the problem is starting in washington months ago, way before russia-ukraine, when the spending bill came and came and came and now, we're all paying the price. >> a thousand percent. neil: well-put, gentlemen and i like the food analogies because i latch on to those. >> [laughter] neil: guys thank you, larry. yeah, come on. it tastes just like the real thing, guys thank you very very much. we are folwing a couple of other developments here, you know, mcdonald's you probably heard is closing all of its 800- plus restaurants in russia. now, vladimir putin said not so fast, we're going to seize all of those assets there. ed rensi knows a thing or two he used to run them in this country on what he makes for that, food for thought so

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neil: all right, well, if you want to leave russia, you know, sometimes you can't take your belongings with you mcdonald's is finding out the hard way abandoning russia in light of what's going on in ukraine but all those shops and restaurants are left behind and it looks like vladimir putin is confiscating all of that and the assets that go with it. ed rensi, former mcdonald's usa ceo probably isn't surprised but ed, it is a reminder what you're dealing with, what you build in a country, you can lose in a country. >> absolutely, it's one of the reasons why franchising is a lot better than ownership out right. putin's lawlessness is unbride eled. he will take over those assets,

he will take the supply chain and put a gun to everybody's head to say open those restaurants up, if he has a will to do that. it's tragic. the people that are really suffering the most are the 60,000 employees, the 60,000 people in the supply chain and all the people that depended on those restaurants for food distribution everyday. when we went into russia back in 1990 that discussion started in the early 80s, and frankly, the u.s. company couldn't do anything about it. our canadian company led the effort to go into moscow and then the rest of the soviet union and george cohan, whose the chairman did a marvelous job and created a little bit of western influence in those communities, was very much welcome. we had 27,000 applications for the first 600 jobs in the soviet union and we fed people that hadn't eaten good meat and bread in a very long time. neil: you know, we're told, and you know russia far better than i do as a market, that the

russians still largely don't know what's going on in ukraine or being fed information that's just outright wrong. it's different i guess for younger russians, but i always feel that they can tell what's going on, long lines outside banks if they can get to their banks, if they can take any money out of the banks, they see it when the local mcdonald's is closed, they see it when starbucks goes away, they probably start wondering as we look at the dozens upon dozens of major world companies that have cut ties with russia, so what do you think they're thinking? >> well the reality of it is, mcdonald's and pepsi and coca cola and burger king and all the rest of them did a marvelous job of sending a message to putin's administration that this isn't a behavior, that resonates through the entire community and i can tell you i've got friends that are in russia and i've got ukrainian friends, i'm getting words through the czech republic and through poland, people have

migrated to poland are sending me text messages saying what in the world is going on, where is the united states? putin's lost his mind and goes on and on and on. the people in russia are clearly aware that there's something very wrong happening across their country, and they don't like it anymore than the rest of us do. they just aren't aware of the depth of the evil that's being perpetrated on ukraine and i pray for the people of ukraine now, mcdonald's has gotten nearly 100 restaurants in ukraine and they are all going to be closed down as well. thank goodness mcdonald's has got a great moral center and the ronald macdonald house mobile medical facility has been marshalled in poland to go to that front corridor with ukraine and start providing medical services to russian houses also providing services to people that need it, so having a great american corporation with a great moral center in principles is very important these days,

and i thank god for ray crock and fred turner who said when you are in doubt, do the right thing. don't do what's convenient or easy. neil: well you're very modest man yourself, ed, but you pursued a lot of that when you were running the show in this country, so back at you, my friend. ed rensi very good seeing you again. >> good seeing you, neil. be well. neil: all right in the meantime, you too, ed, in the meantime, ahead of higher prices, people are doing this at grocery stores i'm not saying pivoting from one cheaper cutoff meat to another. buying a lot of groceries that the price will be ratcheting up soon anyway, so a lot of them are kind of right now, and who sees it for himself at his grocery store giant impact, after this. at vanguard, you're more than just an investor, you're an owner with access to financial advice,

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neil: you know, this market that investors hate the prospect of interest rates going up, this go -around there might be disappointment if they don't go up enough. charlie gasparino has more on that side of this fed day story, hey, charlie. charlie: hey, neil. we've been talking to economists , investors, wall street executives, and the

consensus is pretty clear and i know you have john on in a minute and i'd like to hear his view that jerome powell could be on the verge of maybe one of the biggest policy mistakes ever by underestimating inflation for so long, by waiting well past covid being an existential threat to our economy and now finally starting to mildly raise interest rates and normalize the money supply. we should point out that he is well-behind the curve of you look at inflation, given where his interest rates are, the fed funds rate, this is like, this is not exactly a bold move here, and people are paying, because i know gas prices are coming down a little bit now because of china is out of the oil market but they will be back in, and you know, the pressures on the system, on pricing will remain, and this is just not enough easing, excuse me, tightening and normalization of the feds balance sheet which is essentially taken money supply out of the system, which

has been pumped like crazy, trillions over the last two years, it's just not enough. at least i don't think it's going to deal with inflation, and you know, one thing good about john is that john is very micro as well as macro, so i'll defer to him there and toss it to him, because he runs, he created a supermarket chain. he knows what supply chains are about. i'd love to hear if he thinks this is anything but weak tea, neil, back to you. neil: interesting. all right, charlie thank you very very much, why don't i ask him right now, john joins us right now radio talk show titan, runs grastiti's food i'd call a high end grocery store in the manhattan area, also the red apple group real estate, aviation, oil, you name it, he has a big role in it. john, good to have you. let me pick-up where my buddy charlie: gas left off, that what the fed is giving us might be

weak tea that it's not enough of a hike and the signal that it's behind the curve is still out there. do you agree with that? >> yes, me and charlie have had many discussions on this and the fact is the fed, i'm scared to say, has been politicized a little bit. they definitely aren't going to do a half a point, but we'll all know in 15 minutes, and they could take a position that they will do zero. i mean, the consensus is, and i think that it's going to be at least a quarter point. neil: so john, just talking about the grocery part of your empire, whether it's red apple, what are customers doing? they are pretty savvy when one cutoff meat gets expensive they pivot to another, if they know wheat is rocketing, they might pre-buy a lot of cereals ahead of that, but what do you notice?

>> right now, a lot of people, ever since all of the announcements because in the next 30, 45, 60 days you're going to have a lot of price increases. all the majors are increasing. the ceo's of these food companies know the prices are going to go up so you know what they are trying to do? they are trying to stay ahead of the curve, so what they're doing is raising prices above what they even should raise them just to make sure they aren't behind the curve, and they're going to have record earnings this quarter, and the consumer knowing that's going to happen, we've noticed that the consumer is starting to buy at home because it's going to go up, so if you like oreo cookies, you better buy a few boxes and keep them home because they are only going to cost you you more. if you like peanut butter, whatever you like, buy it, fill

up your cupboards, it goes up in the next 60 days anywhere from 12 to 20%. neil: i've been doing that long before inflation, but it's nice to know the world is catching up with me. >> neil, the only problem is we better not eat them. neil: i know, i know. there is that problem. what about, and it's interesting because crostidi's for those who aren't familiar, it really is a very high-end is one word but it just has a lot of great stuff and you pay a little bit more for it, but a lot of your customers, particularly in those areas, are happy to pay for it. how are they at the high end dealing with this because they are savvy buyers themselves, so what are they doing? because i find that rather chill ing. >> we have three sets of customers. we have, don't forget, 70% of our customers probably live paycheck to paycheck, some of them and then we have the 30% that don't give a darn, and but

there's 60 or 70% that live paycheck to paycheck, they are noticing, they are paying more for the product, so what the manufactures are doing is shrinkflation. in other words they are taking a 32-ounce bottle making it into 28 ounces, so how to con the consumer and whether it's washington conning them or the manufactures conning them, the consumer needs help, because they are getting hurt. what's happening, what's going on with the economy is the poor and the middle class are getting hurt the most. right now, you saw oil at 95, 96 , 97. that's only because of china, like charlie said, but once the china covid problem goes away you might have 100 or $110 oil again and then fasten your seat belt it's going up further. neil: yeah, we should point out

oil prices still doubled the last year, so it's what you get used to. you think inflation is going to stick around a long time regardless of what the fed is doing? >> the only thing that's going to bring down inflation is to bring down the price of crude oil from $100 to $60 and the only way to do it is like i told our mutual friends is you start the north american energy treaty and you get canada, you get the united states and mexico and in that treaty, and we can produce 15 million-barrels a day , a day, and that's going to bring down the oil prices and make north america energy- independent, but our president doesn't want to do that. why? i don't know, and you know, my son gave me an interesting aspect to it. he said we have to worry about the existence of our country before we worry about the existence of the world/

climate change. let's worry about our country existing, before we surrender to the world climate people. neil: well we have a lot of options out there, and a lot of oil, john thank you very much, good seeing you, dow up 261 points, we're minutes away from that fed decision, charles payne will take you to that. we'll have more after this. as a professional bull-rider i'm used to taking chances. but when it comes to my insurance i don't. i use liberty mutual, they customize your car insurance, so you only pay for what you need. wooo, yeaa, woooooo and, by switching you could even save 665 dollars. hey tex, can someone else get a turn? yeah, hang on, i'm about to break my own record.

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neil: all right, nickel prices hit limit down today. four or 5%. they don't open up again online done mercantile exchange that is the case a little more than a week after prices were soaring there. nickel a key component in a lot of batteries and electric vehicles. the prices have been soaring. keeping an eye on the fed. minutes away from a big announcement. to charles payne on that. >> neil, thank you very much. drum roll please. i'm charles payne this is "making money." it has been a whirlwind session. stocks picked up after yesterday's strong session even as the fed is embarking on mission to undo excessive accommodation. can jay powell and company stop runaway inflation and break not break the economy. president zelenskyy talked about seminal moments in u.s. history.

pearl harbor, the i have a dream speech. biggest publicly-traded companies, says you know what? never mind. consequently up 31%. these stocks are soaring however should you be a buyer? we have a lotto discuss. first to edward lawrence down in washington, d.c., edward. reporter: we're getting close, before i, information now. federal reserve has raised the federal funds raise one quarter of a point, 25 basis points. it is the first increase since december of 2008. the fed announced it will start shrinking its balance sheet at an upcoming meeting. so that has not started yet. economic activity in the statement continues to strengthen. federal reserve in the statement added this to the statement, the job gains have been strong in recent months and the unemployment rate declined substantially. that is a new line in the statement. the statement also reads, inflation remains elevated