pushing around a major company like this that went after the crews industry before now it is disney world. i don't know, or going to have to leave it there thank you to both of your current philip and kristin that's it for us this week. gerry will be back next week with more in-depth interviews right here on the wall street >> "barron's roundtable" sponsored by jpmorgan asset management. jack: welcome to "barron's roundtable" where we get behind the headlines and prepare you for the week ahead. inflation remains at a 40 year high. i am asking jared bernstein how long it could last and what the chances are of recession at facebook parent company meta,

is mark zuckerberg's meta verse dream becoming a nightmare? what we think are the 3 most important things investors ought to be thinking about. stocks were hammered as investors worry about rising interest rate. bullish money managers have turned cautious. netflix stock plummeted on reported last 200,000 subscribers last quarter. what it means for the streaming industry and investors and elon musk had a nice week, tell earnings soared and he has funding to buy twitter. what that means and what happens next. on "barron's roundtable," ben levinsohn, carleton english and jack hough. you made an interesting comment as we watched stocks plummet on friday and i want you to expand on it. you said the economies too strong for the fed but not strong enough for the market. explained that. >> it comes down to the market

saying things like the pmis show the economy is decelerating. we are seeing strength in the job market where jobless claims have been under 200,000 for 29 weeks straight, the longest since 1969, the job growth, wages are the sticky things in inflation. the market is saying we've got to go faster and that stooped the market, the fed will hit the brakes too hard and tighten into recession. ibly15 only these rate hikes were priced in. why did stock investors freak out? >> the idea of a half point rate hike was priced in. they are upping the ante. we have 125 basis points priced

in from may and june and this is something st. louis fed chairman or fed president james bullard mentioned with the need for 75 basis point hike and this is something they are pricing in but it had to go there almost immediately and that's never good when it has to move that fast. the survey of the big-money poll, a lot of neutral, half the respondents. it doesn't happen often but might not be scared enough at this point. jack: it shows they are not sure what to make of this market. one more question. can earnings save us? >> we hope to, apple, microsoft and the rest of them. if the numbers are good they can arrest the drop.

look at the charts on these stocks, keep your fingers crossed and hope for the best because it is not looking good. jack: it is not looking good for netflix. if you didn't sign up for netflix during a lockdown pandemic you were never going to sign up and looking ahead to earnings it could be a big move and it sure was. jack: i wasn't sure which direction but we found out quickly, first subscriber decline in a decade and there could be a bigger subscriber decline this quarter. investors, the stock lost 35% day. more than a billion dollars on shares on that decline sold this past week a lot of $400 million but told investors he wouldn't be surprised if stock does well, it is called hedging, he is a hedge fund manager. netflix has a plan to return to

growth, a cheaper ad supported subscription, to crackdown on password sharing. if your password is wrong, lover one hundred 23, better change it, pretty hackable. the new plan makes sense, you need to make more money with a cheaper tear than a more expensive tier with no ads but you don't set up an ad business and add business overnight, netflix says it could take two years. jack: disney, you don't know that password yet, doing very well, all these marvel movies doing well but it is the worst performer in the dow. what is up with that? >> netflix's decline is weighing on streaming valuations in general and disney is spending a ton of money on content, looks like a growth stock temporarily, that is where stocks are crushed by rising interest rates and this

showdown over florida politics. it is a choice between a falling knife and netflix or a political hot potato. if i had to choose i would take the potato but my preference would be keep my hands in my pockets for now. jack: i've got to ask about elon musk's fantastic week. carleton: we are living in tesla's world, able to improve margins while contending with inflationary issues all other automakers deal with. they increased orders after the super bowl, after not advertising, they pushed them towards tesla and you've got to look at the twitter side, were you able to put together the financing for this,

$46.5 billion, a lot of details to be ironed out. if it's a tender offer, we will hear more from twitter next week and finally his boring company, not saying the company is boring but they are looking to build that underground thing in las vegas, $6 billion, six times what it was valued at. jack: all these companies spending so much on ad sales, 80 million followers. president biden promised to lower gasoline prices and slow inflation but will supply chain woes undercut his plpl

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ibly15 president biden credited the american rescue plan for getting the economy back open but we are experiencing decades high of inflation and unlikely the fed and squash inflation without causing her recession. white house council of economic advisers member jared bernstein. thanks for coming on the show. i know you are a busy guy. obviously we long retired the word transitory when it comes to inflation but what is the at ministration's forecast? when did it start to fall and can you imagine returning to the low levels of the previous decade when globalization seemed a good thing? >> if you look at every forecast they tell you something very important, they all expect inflation to grow more slowly at the end of the year, not to address the question at the rate it was

growing paris pandemic in the 1% to 2% range but around 4.5% which is half of where it is and that's a strong deceleration but not where president biden would like to see it. he recognizes what a smaller rate of price pressures because a household budget and so he will keep pressing our agenda to ease price pressures at the household level. jack: no secret that over the decades the federal reserve does not have a great batting average in terms of a soft landing. this time around it may be harder because it appears they could be tightening into a weakening economy but if you look at the philly fed that was an ugly number, jobless claims suggest the economy is booming so how do you triangulate that and what are the odds we avoid a recession?

>> important question and the best way to do that is not to look too closely at these probability models because they are based on economies different from the one we are in now, still dealing with the pandemic we haven't seen in 100 years, we have putin's unprovoked and unjust war affecting, oddity and energy prices, look at the economy headwinds and tailwinds, we looked at price pressures, commodity, energy but think of the tailwinds, we have the strongest tail record on record and most depend on the labor market, not the platform but the labor market for their well-being. thanks to many of the policies, the rescue plan and the president's actions when he took office any months ago have left household balance sheets in strong shape?

i was looking at net worth of share income or debt service as a share of income, the first being high and the second being low. it is widely agreed that these tailwinds will help as we enter a period where the fed is pivoting to more restrictive policies. jack: the big thing people talk about is gasoline. the president and his recent economic reports said he would take whatever steps he can to push those prices down. he tapped the strategic oil reserve. what else can he do? >> you failed to appreciate the magnitude of the relief. he talked about a million barrels a day for six months, one hundred 80 million barrels, then he got some of our allies who also have strategic reserves to chip in 60 million,

240 million barrels, that is impacted oil prices and prices at the pump. he went to the midwest and talked about the supply of gasoline through the ethanol additives and continuing to press all producers to meet their production quotas. at the same time we are seeing some response to the high price of energy so we see market function, getting more rigs, taking advantage of these and that should help take the edge off. the president has been straight about the challenges posed by the russian ukraine conflict. jack: the buy american provision, sounds great on one level but could be

inflationary. will that push prices up? >> we looked carefully at this, i can't find empirical evidence that that would be the case in no small part because this is a $24 trillion economy and talking about a set of projects, this is one 12:45 set of some of those projects. we think that by american is the right policy in terms of creating jobs and production, critical components of our supply chain, they had not performed as resilient as we like. the president's agenda to reach sure makes a lot of sense in terms of long-term stability. jack: building on sure is a pretty good idea.

thanks so much. facebook's parent company meta is facing challenges like never before. before. why the social do you think any of us will look back in our lives, and regret the things we didn't buy? (camera shutters) or the places we didn't go. ♪ ♪

jack: facebook parent company meta platforms report earnings and this -- disappointed investors look for answers. did mark zuckerberg keep his company going? joining the rbc capital markets managing director brad erickson. thanks for coming on the show. >> thanks for having me. jack: i would like to start with that simple question. as we wait for this meta first thing where does facebook's growth come from?

>> we are coming out of the pandemic. there is an e-commerce hangover whether it is netflix or carvana, huge beneficiaries, what we are seeing in 2022 the mug growth is slower. secondarily, facebook has lost some signal from apple in the last 9 to 12 months. that is a head wind, advertisers not as willing to spend as they used to be. everyone talking about tiktok, tiktok is stealing people's time and engagement over instagram and snap. jack: what this thing is going to be when it grows up, will they become a publisher responsible for the content or

should they amplify misinformation? code 1 your for these ills be a subscription model, get the recurring revenue and anybody willing to pay $5, becomes more responsible? >> with the scenario you just described, a subscription aura pay wall, you limit the number of people who come on the platform, the reason, and good to great, it is being inclusive. you go to a subscription, you can curie 8 that, and limit their audience, that is not to the fundamental basis on which most platforms are built upon. ben: instagram is the growth engine but they only seem interested in tiktok and

youtube. could instagram be the next netflix where they hit the wall on growth? >> a little bit of apples and oranges but instagram is growing. what people miss is facebook, the core facebook site is growing nicely, facebook blue has the most data which meta, the company, to leverage the data, to instagram, from an engagement standpoint you are seeing more user growth on instagram, that business should continue to grow. the problem is you have people falling off of facebook blue at an increasing rate that becomes the head wind, that is what facebook is dealing with.

i expect instagram to continue to grow but at a certain point, facebook has a little over one of 3 human beings on earth as platform subscribers it is challenging to grow beyond those levels. carleton: in the meta first situation, is facebook going to be the player here or is there a possibility they could bring voice to it but it will be someone else? facebook will be the friendster of the meta-first? >> there are a lot of ways to play the meta-verse or construct what it will look like. facebook or meta is doing a pretty nice job being an evangelist for what it will look like and getting people to broaden their horizons and expand their minds of what the

meta-verse can be a but there's a ton of commercial and enterprise applications facebook isn't best situated to deal in. what facebook brings to the table is the audience size, billions of users. jack: when i see you in the meta-verse i will have more hair. >> thanks for having me. jack: investment ideas for the (fisher investments) in this market, you'll find fisher investments is different than other money managers. (other money manager) different how? aren't we all just looking for the hottest stocks? (fisher investments) nope. we use diversified strategies to position our client's portfolios for their long-term goals. (other money manager) but you still sell investments that generate high commissions for you, right? (fisher investments) no, we don't sell commission products. we're a fiduciary, obligated to act in our client's best interest. (other money manager) so when do you make more money, only when your clients make more money? (fisher investments) yep. we do better when our clients do better. at fisher investments, we're clearly different. i had been giving koli kibble. it never looked like real food.

with the farmer's dog you can see the pieces of turkey. it smells like actual food. as he's aged, he's still quite energetic and youthful. i really attribute that to diet. get started at longlivedogs.com

jack: among many other babies with the bathwater lowes and home depot, the market is not smiling on those companies. jack: i will be on vacation leaving with both of these

stock picks. us prices are up 19%, mortgage rates, everyone is worried about a slowdown in transaction, the fortunes of home depot and lowe's are more closely tied to those prices and credit card data for be of a says consumers are still spending and as cheap as they've been relative to earnings. jack: people want to keep them nice. we go to actionable ideas. carleton: looking at jpmorgan chase, it got beaten up during the last two earnings cycles by 10 percentage points, delivering the return on equity is so looking to get a bank at a discount casting a 3% dividend. it is one to take a look at.

jack: what is your idea? ben: exxon got upgraded but fell 3%. might be a good opportunity if you are looking for an opportunity. jack: all great ideas. to read more check out this edition of carleton's.com. that is all for ... dr. michael youssef: i want you to visualize the proceedings in the heavenly courts. the judge is sitting on the bench and there, being accused, is the human race. they are accused of depravity, and the accusation sticks. the evidences are overwhelming. but in the courts of heaven, there's only one who can speak for you. only jesus can pronounce us guiltless and, with him, there is hope, there's eternal life. male announcer: up next.