out of touch with ordinary people per. >> it's alienated the minority voters of the core base of the democratic consistency. we had this with african-american black white people ran around saying african-american black people think know we are black. spit on that and i wish we could talk more but we can't. thank you indeed to will be back next week with more >> "barron's roundtable" sponsored by jpmorgan asset management. jack: welcome to "barron's roundtable" where we get behind the headlines and prepare you for the week ahead. with inflation at a 40 your high interest rate hikes ahead is it safe to invest in bonds? black rock's rick reeder on where to put your money. elon musk sold 8 billion worth of tesla shares after making a deal to buy twitter.

should tesla investors worry? we begin with the three most important things investors ought to be thinking about. it was a volatile week for the market as april came to us legal yearnings couldn't save the market and the rate hike is expected next week. big misses for big tech earnings, apple beat expectations across the board but it is expecting supply chain issues to continue. cruz cruise stocks below pre-pandemic levels but consumers are starting to travel again. on "barron's roundtable," ben levinsohn, you said the only thing that could save the market would be of tech earnings came in strong, they didn't. >> ugly doesn't begin to describe it. not that earnings were bad, companies beating earnings by 7%. most companies, 80% are doing

it. the problem is they are not doing as much as they used to be doing and the guidance isn't great. analyst expectations they have out there are stronger than pre-covid but they are starting to come in and this is sparking the markets and they are wondering where is the growth going to come from. jack: one statistic that's getting airtime is this is the worst start in the market since 1939. should investors lose sleep over what the rest of the year will bring them? >> the stats are interesting. before the late day selloff the worst since the 1970s, people are trotting out comparisons because inflation and this number back in the great depression, better to look at all four month periods and a lot more recent examples to look at, we had with covid and

in 2018 when the fed was hiking rates and the market got spooked by it. we are at a point where we are a third of the way priced to a recession. that means if we head into recession we will lose another 20 percentage points but if we don't there's a possibility of seeing decent upside and that makes it such a terrifying place to be in the uncertainty of which way it will go. jack: to buy, sell or hold. what is the next indicator? what are you looking for next week? ben: the fed. investors are spooked about rising interest rates and how fast the fed will have to go. everyone knows we will gotta half a point rate hike. it could be more, quantitative typing as well. that will tell us a lot whether the market can find bottom. jack: been referred to lousy tech earnings, what is the

headline? carleton: we are definitely past the covid narrative, what worked for tech companies is no longer the case. amazon at a quarterly loss. a lot of that had to do with the stake in a lecture call vehiclemaker ivien but rapid expansion during the covid decline, looking past that. on the flipside we got good news from apple on the court, beat earnings, the iphone, ipad, all of that, it expect in the next quarter to be heard by supply chain issues and last sales in china due to covid lockdowns to the tune of $8 billion. jack: bike opportunities, google was down. is that a place to go?

carleton: businesses are doing well. am i an investor? management told you the next few months will be difficult. we know with the fed raising rates tech stocks cannot do so well but if you have a longer time horizon this could be the time to get it. jack: during the pandemic, people stopped traveling, used the excess money on stuff like gasoline to throw on the inflation fire, now people are finally getting out. barron writes about why that might benefits and stocks. al: i bought a bed last year that hasn't arrived that i am taking a trip this year. we are going into services, traveling particular. our colleagues looked at the cruise operators and think there's opportunity in those stocks. jack: what stocks stand to benefit?

al: royal caribbean, carnival cruise and norwegian cruise lines. jack: sounds interesting but there is a lot of recession talk. if a recession should head a lot of people will decide this isn't the time for a cruise. al: it is a legitimate risk. they have more debt than they used to even though the stocks are beaten out and looking attractive relative to pre-pandemic levels. the recession scenario depending how to allocate your portfolio you may stick with a norwegian cruise line that caters to hiring customers. the other two are lower end customers who might be hurt more if the economy slides. jack: the time to buy is when it looks scary. the bond market crash is real, some analysts say the worst may be over. be over.

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jack: the bond market is hammered and investors leaving in droves. joining me is black rock chief investment officer of global fixed income rick reeder. thanks for coming on the show, appreciate it. >> thank for having me. jack: let's start with the fed. they don't have a great track record of engineering a soft landing. you are on the record saying you don't think we are headed for recession. how does this scenario play out? rick:the fed is in a tough spot. they waited too long to move. it is ironic we will hear next week about reduction of the balance sheet after a couple months ago we were still putting money into the system.

it is a hard problem to solve. there are a series of things promoting a pretty good backdrop for the economy, consumers in good shape, you saw the data this week, consumers are sitting at $2 trillion of savings, income at high levels, white-hot jobs market and corporates in good shape so taking a look at nominal gdp when you have pricing power, they can avoid recession. the question is whether the markets believe they can avoid recession. we won't know the answer for a number of months. is the market going to get nervous or has already got nervous about it over the last few weeks. jack: we start with bonds and pivot to stocks. is it too simplistic to say we know there are rate hikes coming? that suggests you don't want to put money to work in bonds

until the market sniffed out the end of the hiking cycle but you know more about this than i do. >> the feds tightening financial conditions, they can't be clearer and you could get a fed that moves quicker and we could hear in this meeting they could move quicker, 75 basis point move since june and july which is not a bad way to do it. to move quicker and to pivot of the economy if the economy slows where they are seeing some part of that so what do you do? the number one key to fixed income is to be patient. where do you put money to work? you've got to be conservative half and keep interest rate exposure down. you are getting levels that are getting really intriguing in places like investment-grade credit where y yre getting getg elds back 4%

plck 5%.%. i i wahear frohethd and fast thefagoing o go put monepuork w rticulpa thert yield e asse a some se some sensend h a ae attrreakev breakevenrom the roh win ve win e pepective.ctive. : youuin winit wh more usualou houave e sory pryow et is ges ttgeing rrifd nger dtions mmhaered t har understandable. what is your view of that market? how far does that have to fall for investors to feel comfortable? rick:we were going through it in our strategy meetings in the stock market and bond market and it is hard to assess how far along you are but my sense is your 90% of the way there in bonds and stocks. i don't think 10 year

treasuries will get much back of 31/4 type yield. and the stock market, you are getting valuations, tech earnings, when you break it down to look at the cash flow generation, pretty strong and still growing and talk about forward pe on equities that are getting attractive. we are not that far away. we are picking a little bit, we are running the highest level of cash in our portfolios but we are starting to pick away where the multiples of gotten interesting including places that are structurally in good place like agriculture and part of the materials market but i think we are looking at software this week, companies are not going to reduce the amount they spend on software.

universally talking about increasing, the multiples are getting interesting. we are still staying conservative. jack: you mentioned energy, very different from tech. you think that is farther to run? >> the backbone of energy, we had quite a run but the backbone if you look at the refiners. those are interesting. i think emp has a great backbone to see high pressure on that. natural gas, in europe and lack of global supply of natural gas. and assume, oil and natural gas, what is the multiple off

of those numbers. jack: they are showing serious capital discipline. rick rieder, thanks very much. tesla has lost billions of dollars since elon musk at deal to buy twitter. investors are concerned the social media giant will be a distraction for the world's distraction for the world's wealthiest person. is it some magical number? something we just achieve at the end? or is it a feeling? a freedom, to live our lives the way we intended. through the ups. the downs. all of it. this is financial security. from long term care planning, to annuities and life insurance, lincoln helps you plan,

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ibly15 jack: the world's richest man buying one of the biggest social media platforms, elon musk purchasing twitter for $44 billion to cut costs, grow the business and foster free-speech.

it is barron's cover story. alex, twitter, hugely influential, enormous platform but only makes half the revenue per user of facebook, no one has figured out how to monetize it. elon musk fixes it? >> the best news is twitter has needed to be fixed for years. it is not a high bar. and not a lot of opportunities for musk to fix the platform, won't even know financially what happens. he has a long leash here. he will cut the company's r&d, $2 billion a year to play with. one thing we know he doesn't need is a pr shot. he's basically a 1-man publicity machine. jack: he talks about free-speech but it takes more than that. alex:we really don't have a 10

point plan. free-speech is a good talking point for musk but also puzzling. he says free-speech is what matters the law but we know free-speech doesn't even apply to private companies and i am sure musk knows that too. so real ways musk could fix the platform starts with getting rid of spambots better driving the worst parts of twitter's partisan content and doing more with subscription, subscriptions could be the perfect corrective for twitter because it would make spam uneconomical, filter the noise and be a new remedy stream that helps twitter match profits to influence. jack: no one has said it is too civil on twitter, let's lower the manner of discourse. tesla, musk has sold $8.5 billion worth of stock to pay for this. could a margin call come,

people think twitter is in trouble and also remember from the beginning one of twitter's problems was it had a part-time ceo, jack dorsey also running square, now has another part-time ceo or owner. alex:those are the issues. we talked to a handful of analysts and investors. none of them are worried about musk being distracted. they believe in him and believe he can multitask. that might be an optimistic view but it is the reality. ben: are they worried to say anything negative about musk? jack: alex:we talk to one guy with a $350 price target. they basically said this isn't an issue either. they are not unafraid to take shots at the stock but you raise a good point. the most important as powerful

person in the auto industry, would not be good for your career to take shots. with respect to margin calls and a death spiral because musk is forced to sell people should remember a couple things. he has money to buy an update using that. the risk to a tesla shareholder was disruption for musk's selling. carleton: for this to make financial sense, musk, there's going to be debt so walk us through how this makes financial sense. alex:we are talking about the usual musk deal, he says he doesn't care and not something to say in the mna world, he does care and he has to care. twitter will be heavily indebted company, probably

something like $600 million worth of debt payments. the bottom line is musk has no choice but to run it as a serious business. jack: there are questions whether the deal will close, twitter stock closes at a big discount and the guys who try to bet on these things, there's a 50% chance the deal doesn't happen at all. jack: thanks for coming on to talk about this. roundtable numbers next will give we hit the bike trails every weekend shinges doesn't care. i grow all my own vegetables shingles doesn't care. we've still got the best moves you've ever seen good for you, but shingles doesn't care. because 1 in 3 people will get shingles, you need protection.

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that's why we build technology that makes it possible for every business... and every person... to come to the table and do more incredible things. brought to you by jpmorgan asset management. for every challenge we face we say let's solve it. jack: i'm in studio in nashville this week because i just wrapped upper barron conference with financial advisors and one of the topics was crypto currency, trying to

get their head around this thing but more news this week suggests bitcoin and the others are here to stay. >> seems to be that way, fidelity and announcing people will put crypto currency in their 401(k) plan. that is huge, viewed by proponents of crypto currency as an endorsement but there are a lot of caveats, the department of labor does not like the idea of cryptos staying in portfolio. our employers may not want to have cryptos in the workers portfolio because they are under obligation to have prudent investment options. most of us don't pay much attention to the investors.

that would induce people to trade their 401(k) accounts. jack: coin base has more counter than schwab, td ameritrade, so this does seem it is here to stay but let's get some actionable ideas that are not bitcoin. al: i wrote about auto dealership lithium motors, people are worried about high prices falling, rising costs squeezing profit margins but that is a growth stock and value stock price. jack: what do you have? ben: riley à la mode of, shares dropped 14% this week after disappointing earnings. it is a case of high expectations better than any real problems, stock trading at

a solid discount on evaluation to its 5-year average. o'reilly looks interesting. ben: jack: given the shortage of cars people want to keep more of them on the road with o'reilly parts. to read more check ... dr. michael youssef: today, we may have lots of knowledge, but we have very little wisdom. today, we may be able to communicate with the speed of light, but we don't have contentment and joy. this is the time for all who claim to be disciples of jesus christ to know how to appropriate the rightful place of being salt of the earth. male announcer: coming up next on "leading the way."