i believe. stuart: i do think you're right. 1990. yes it is. 1990. >> yeah. stuart: margaret thatcher, eye rohn lady, served three consecutive terms. she was succeeded by john major. i misser to this day. >> many do. stuart: neil, it is yours. neil: the iron lady, thank you very much, stuart. we've been focusing on what you are focusing on the last few hours, what the federal reserve will do in the next two hours. we're expecting a half-point hike in the overnight lending rate known as federal fund and a lot more rate hikes to come. half-point would be the largest we've seen since 2000. we gotten used to see quarter point moves up or down. telegraphing some say to come. some say seven hikes remainder of the year, could send the

overnight lending rate prohibitively higher, maybe, 3, 4, 5%. get the read from scott martin as investors brace for all of this. first of all, scott, what are you looking for? >> 50 basis points today, neil and a projection of another 50 in june which is so interesting because that is what the market has been kind of telling the fed to do and we're here, they're likely going to do it, maybe with more hawkish, meaning a little more kind of tapering commentary with respect to the balance sheet and, the market should take that okay but it is one of those issues where it has been volatile this year. if you look at the benchmark 10-year treasury rate, neil, which is really the benchmark rate to a lot of rates that we all feel with regards to mortgages and lending and things like that, it has doubled practically this year. if you go back to december, 1.5 on 10-year treasury, so now close to three so that's a

shock. i love the term you used, verb, i used it with my kids before, it may not be what you're used to but it is reality. we have to get new reality of tightening fed, less accommodative fed, less come moat day tiff treasury department with stimulus checks and reopening of the economy to happen, ultimately good for the market. why levels, price levels at the markets we see today are constructive for long-term investors going forward. neil: just to get back, if you think about it, scott, to historical norms, the short-term rates had been around zero for most of the last decade will hit around 1% today. likely by the end of the year, maybe be upwards of 4%, maybe more than that if you anticipate seven more rate hikes if they were to do this every six weeks out of an fomc meeting, federal open market committee, no guarranty all of those will be

tepid hikes or could see intrameeting hikes. where do you see the fed funds rate by year-end? >> i actually see it pretty low, neil, considering some of the projections out there. i think these next two rate hikes are definitely in the bucket but i think going forward from there, you've got a slowing economy, somewhat uncertain job market with respect to jobs actually taken versus jobs available, frankly tough comps on cpi and pce, which are big key inflation measures going forward come the fall, meaning year-over-year comparisons and those data points will be tough to remain hot. i think inflation is going to start to slow and maybe tip over a bit so that the fed may not feel as much pressure. but to your point, one of my favorite lines, in a grateful dead song, is the first days are the hardest days. those are going to be tough for the market to digest as you mentioned with fed funds at zero

what you seem like forever. inflation is nowhere. we had deflation aniry environment last 12 years coming out of financial crisis. we couldn't find, create inflation anywhere even though we tried. now it feels very difficult and challenging but the market will get used to it, the market will get accustomed to a more hawkish fed and be able to go up again. neil: you were referring there to popular retail inflation number and of course personal consumption index number, how of people are willing to spend and both have been on an upward trajectory here but there is the fear here when all said and done when we close out the year, close to four or 5% lending rate, closer to the mean or the norm, but you seem to argue the fed will pull that back a little bit, that the fed overdone it. you might be right and there are others that share that view, if that is interpreted the fed lose

its nerve to address this, wouldn't the markets revolt at that? >> they would. they have to some degree. the fed took a while for the first rate hike in. the market kept pushing that way. we felt pain, the fed did it. we have look at mantra, behavior of this fed over the last several years, throw out some of the recent talk because i think they have to give market some hawkish higher interest rate talk but this is a fed at least last time i checked, looking over their body of work as it were they don't want to crash the markets, they don't want to crash the economy, they don't want to overtighten. we have a midterm election coming up fraught with all kinds of geopolitical issues as we've seen now even in recent days with roe v. wade. i don't think the fed wants to hang this on their hats crushing the economy going into november. neil: i remember a guy named paul volcker didn't worry about

stuff that. do i sound like the angry old man? hang in there scott, i want to get your thoughts on china little later in the show, interesting developments to follow not quite what you think. kelly o'grady continuing to follow elon musk on every changing musings on quest to get twitter. first he was talking about taking the company private, still is, but apparently has programs down the road, i guess, kelly, haven't then fix it up, clean it up, take it public again. can you tell me what's going on? reporter: absolutely neil, never a dull moment with elon. the man is kicking around ideas for potential changes to twitter. no specifics yet beyond his unwavering commitment to free speech but his focus may be turning to monetizaton. reports are surfacing that musk is considering charging a fee for third party site to quote embed a tweet. sharing twitter will be free for

casual users or a slight cost for commercial or government users. beyond copyright, law impeding charging a quote, tweet, it raises questions about executions. how big does a company have to be before you charge twitter? scale it on accounts or revenue? not to mention the increased headcount to achieve it which could be potentially tricky to the the cost of profitability. the shift to monetizaton may reflect reports that he is considering taking twitter public within three years. he is said to be courting current large-scale investors and private equity firms to help lower his 21 billion cash burden. twitter's limited cash flow is not traditionally attractive model for p.e. firms but they will often take investments private with eye towards fixing them up outside of the spotlight, ipoing for a profit. musk signals he might do something similar could help similar investors. he could work toward improving

operations and profitability, neil. neil: kelly, a one thing i am curious about, he kind of has this always evolving dialogue where he is going to go with twitter. has to get paperwork in order, i get that, but is there any sense that he is really in the end in it to win it. to do what he wants to with it? >> well, i think that depends on what he views as winning, right? this is all for him about free speech and making that public town square and he has been very adamant on twitter that this is what he is going to focus on. he has been pushing back on a number of folks like these, he has gotten a lot of pushback from groups saying, hey, we want to keep twitter the same way. we don't want to change content moderation policies. the fact there have been reports on the economic side he is thinking about slashing board salaries, trimming headcount. he is thinking about monetizaton. how are you going to make this a

viable, profitable product. the fact that he is considering ipoing in three years, if that is indeed true, i think, he is in it to win it both on the economic side as well as that free speech side. neil: all right. well-put. we'll watch it closely, kelly o'grady in los angeles thank you so much for that. take a quick peek at oil prices. one of the reasons why the dow is having a tough time getting out of the range here, continuing to advance, a a lot has to do with inflation still rampant out there across the globe but now this eu plan to eventually ban all russian oil. the caveat here though is not right away. that is the goal at least uneventually unload a lot of russian oil. we do know what in the past, what vladmir putin done with countries cutting off natural gas shipments. they were so slow-going about it, he more or less intervened

in the case of poland, bulgaria i will take it away from you right now. we have the latest on all of this with lucas tomlinson. this is not a surprise decision out of the eu what would be a surprise how quickly they could take the oil off the market and that is no guaranty, is it? >> that's right, neil. the european union gets about 25% of its oil from russia and the top official making this announcement this policy will have challenges being implemented. >> let's be clear, it will not be easy because some member-states are strongly dependent on russian oil but we simply have to do it. so today we will propose to ban all russian oil from europe. reporter: the proposal must be unanimously approved by all 27 member-states to take effect as you mentioned, neil, already one country sounding it es disapproval. hungary's foreign minister said

after the announcement today his country will not support the eu proposal. he said banning russian oil could completely destroy his country's economy. the eu plan phase out russian oil gradually in the next six months to quell potential price shocks. oil will be banned by the end. year. two weeks ago, you may recall, u.s. treasury secretary janet yellen said a european ban on russian oil could do more harm than good because europe's economy could go into a tailed spin. even if russian oil exports go downs prices would go up, helping vladmir putin and russia in the process. the eu slapping more sanctions on russia's largest bank today. >> banks that are systematically critical to the russian financial system and putin's ability to wage destruction, this will solidify the complete isolation of the russian financial sector from the global system. reporter: just a few weeks ago this proposal seemed unthinkable but when europe's largest

economy, germany said they would favor this, this is when things went in motion, neil. germany has been preparing for for this. 35% of oil, waned down to 12% before the invasion. china only gets 20% of its oil from russia. if this takes effect it will have a big bite because russia's largest source of revenue is from oil, not natural gas. neil: now that oil and natural gas, if you think about it, lucas, will have to find a home elsewhere, obviously vladmir putin hopes it is with china, india, all that, but i would imagine greatly discounted prices, right? reporter: that's right. in fact india is part of the game washington is playing with new deli, while india not signaling approval of russian invasion of ukraine it is careful. abstained from number of u.n. resolution us. india is major recipient of russian oil and would like to

receive more at discounted prices. neil: lucas, i like when you're on fox business. it adds cachet to the program. >> means a lot from you, neil. neil: lucas tomlinson. oil moving up. natural gas prices moving up. we'll see how much further they have to go. how much further for the trump bump? the candidate he was supporting against all odds the victor in that republican senate primary. he has a couple other candidates he is teeing up. how will they do? you explore. -- we explore, you decide. ♪

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alive and well. now can that continue to be case? mark meredith has more from cincinnati. mark. reporter: neil, good afternoon to you. today j.d. vance is kicking off the next phase of his senate campaign as you mentioned overnight, he won the republican primary. he will be on the ballot statewide come november. he will face a lot of skeptical voters whether or not he should be sent to washington to represent one of the two senate seats out there. last night vance had plenty to say to his supporters, praising primary opponents and thanking president trump after the endorsement in mid-april. the endorsement helped vance surge late in the race. he will help advance the trump agenda. >> but they wanted to write a story that this campaign would be the death of donald trump's america first agenda. ladies and gentlemen, it ain't the death of the america first agenda. reporter: ohio senator rob portman who did not back vance in the primary says he will be working with him.

he is cone grat lating him. works to offer the support to keep republican seat. majority in the senate is to keep a check on biden administration. this race is far from over, congressman tim ryan easily won the dom create party. he is considered a more moderate candidate. dnc will spend a whole lot of money to send ryan from the house to the senate. >> the work is just beginning. the fight is just beginning. queer going to heal the country, heal ohio and in turn hale the united states of america. reporter: we were also watching a primary out of the ohio 11th congressional district, area essentially between cleveland and akron. the progressive candidate lost in the primary bid was challenging ohio congresswoman chantell brown. brown was able to survive the challenge there was a lot of talk whether the primary challenge would go that way, what it woe mean for

progressives heading into november. the big headline in the ohio valley, it will be j.d. vance moving on to the general election but the trump endorsement did work this is one test, neil. you know that. a lot of races around the corner. pennsylvania around the corner, we're watching georgia gubernatorial race. can he push candidates past ohio that is the question. you like to look, i was you know what i had to go casual again today, i know you appreciate it. neil: you read my mind, now you can do pretty much whatever you want, report something so good, you're your own man, put a tie on next time, young man. just kidding. reporter: i will. neil: i love your reports, my friend, mark meredith. chad pergram on washington developments following all of this in light of the leak from the supreme court yesterday on a draft opinion on roe v. wade. chad, now the push seems to be on certainly among chuck schumer, bernie sanders, a host of others, drop the filibuster, try to force this issue

legislatively where the court might drop it at least judicially. where does that stand? reporter: neil you could say october surprise, the it was a may surprise. democrats are struggling in the polls. they hope the leak to use a way to remind voters about gop. they will use the leak as a foil and attack justices on the supreme court who are pro-life. >> senator mcconnell who spent more of his time as a senator on the republican side engineering the supreme court and the other federal courts to reach political conclusions that he agrees with would not even take credit for what happened with this alito decision and frankly, refused to even acknowledge that he was opposed to roe vs. wade. reporter: the gop members are skeptical of the democrat tactics. they believe voters are more worried about their pocketbooks.

>> i think their motivation was to scare the court, to change its mind about repealing roe v. wade. that is not going to work. to create a debate to talk about something other than high gas prices, inflation and broken borders and crime. reporter: however the leak creates a live line for democrats ahead of the midterms. it means the democratic candidates don't have to tie themselves to president biden. >> the most effective strategy in politics is to run against something and the way that some of these justices got to the court and the discrepancy between what they said in their confirmation hearings and what they appear to be saying in this draft opinion create opportunities for democrats to really gin up their base. reporter: farnsworth says there are few issues as electric as abortion and there are few events as seminal as the supreme court eventually overturning roe vs. wade. that is why abortion could be a key issue at the polls in november. neil? neil: is it enough to change the

odds or the environment though for democrats? they seem to be clinging this as maybe a legislative hail mary pass here but will it really make a difference? it could bring out others who heretofore might not want to come out to the polls, but how do you see it sorting out? reporter: this is definitely a lifeline for democrats. as they said in the sound bite there lindsey graham talking about crime inflation and the border. this gives democrats something else to talk about. the problem if they weaponize the supreme court justices that are pro-life, there are a lot of republicans or middle of the road voters here who didn't like president trump but support him on judicial nominations and confirmations. that is something they have to be careful with if this they turn this into a race with former president trump. remember, former virginia governor mcauliffe, he basically used trump as a foil in his election in glenn youngkin in virginia and that

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neil: welcome back, everybody. ever seen the movie, "spider-man, no way home." i don't want to give it away. i think everyone on the planet has seen it. the statue of liberty is prominently featured in the movie. didn't bother anyone except

apparently the chinese that urged changes that different happen. lydia hu is following drama behind the scenes. we're learning a lot about what happened and what is going on. reporter: learning a lot. no spoiler alerts for anybody that hasn't seen it. but you're right, the statue of liberty is prominently featured in the film and the chinese government reportedly demanded sony picture removes the seens from the movie, "spider-man, no way home." sony said no. this happened last year when sony was trying to get a release date for the blockbuster in china. lady liberty, is in the climax of the film. after sony reportedly said no, they're not taking it out, chinese regulators came back to sony, asked if they could minimize the monument or dull her lighting. again sony said no. which was bold movie. though likely forfeited money

for previous two films. they grossed well over $100 million each in china. since then the film has not been fish lip banned in china. but it also has not received a release date. this isn't the first time sony stood up to china's demands of censorship. you might remember back in 2019, sony refused to cave to demands that a controversial portrayal of bruce lee be removed from the 2019 film, "once upon a time in hollywood." china, canceled that release. this pushback on china, it is notable, because we're seeing increasing censorship coming from china on western films and media. recent example earlier this year, this is popular in china. they had to remove story lines that contained references to gay characters. neil: really? >> they said this is a bold move on sony's part because the money. neil: good for them. encouraging others to do the

same. lydia, fascinating. thank you very much. >> thank you. neil: one little unknown fact, there was a scene featured scott martin. china wantedded that x'd out. that sony did agree to. kidding. >> that is why i didn't get the check. neil: i hear you, i hear you. this is very unusual. lydia was getting into it. it did check my memory i remember "once upon a time." they have a steady policy not taking guff from everyone, back to the interview, remember that, north korean dictator and all? they risk a lot doing that, don't they? >> they do. it is more oppression. more filtering by the chinese government that ultimately hurts their people. the question on sony's behalf, some of the other companies, neil, look across the s&p 500, half of the earnings of the s&p 500 these days come from overseas, a large part of that

overseas amount is china. so companies need china. i mean china's middle class, is the size of our entire country's population and emerging and growing even bigger. that is a huge amount of people that companies like sony want to have, see their movies. but it is an interesting point so what lydia raised about where is the line as to where companies will say no? we're not going to change that. one of the things that hurt me back in the day china did, they banned justin bieber in 2017 from playing over there because of his bad behavior! the guy is a saint. they're trying to really filter out, admonish a lot of things from the united states. have control over it. neil: i was for that particular action. >> oh, okay. neil: i do find it interesting, a lesson to be learned here, that at great risk to their finances, sony, you know, at least three or four times said we will not have other countries

dictating what we show eventually and that could hurt the bottom line. no one is crying for the money that spider-man and the entire series has made, to say nothing of these other flicks but maybe it will embolden others to think, chain, especially now, is in a position not to be calling the shots, what do you think? >> correct. and china, last several years, neil, i think as far as the government goes the ccp, it is definitely on their heels to some degree. the economy stinks. they rebotched, if you will the latest outbreak with respect to covid. people areobviously hurting over there and hopefully taking up some of their own will with respect to what they can do but china still has, the government still has a lot of control over people there. if you look at sony, look at the stake they're putting in the ground here, maybe some other stakes in the ground other companies will do going forward

isn't going to move the government off the block, relent or be as controlling what comes into the country and based on history from president xi and his cohorts they don't move off the block. they stay pretty staunch about how they rule and regulate and so it's going to be a push and pull with respect to how things go but it's a big give-up from sony and other companies with respect to other countries, how they deliver their goods and revenues they receive from them. neil: really wood. what a tangled web we weave, see i what said there, web. good seeing you my friend scott martin on all of those developments here. following what is happening at corner of wall and broad the dow up 100 points. you might notice, not a a retrend but revealing stocks are been up fully expecting interest rates moving up half a point.

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with the whole pun? bottom line the stock is getting hammered at 52-week low. seems that investment or series of investments come back to bite the company. we'll keep eye on it for you right now. lyft has its own headaches right now this is not a scream being indictment of ride-sharing services but something simple as betting on the wrong horse, or, car service. take a look at starbucks, it, like amazon, facing an onslaught of union yanks -- unionization efforts, but starbucks, making the environment more better for works so they wouldn't entertain the idea. gerri willis is with more on that. reporter: they're not raising by diddly, but raising at locations where workers are not unionizing. ceo howard schultz telling

investors on the earnings conference call, the company will spend a billion dollars on wage hikes, improve training this fiscal year. schultz suspended the company's stock buyback program to fund investments. employees who have been with the company between two and five years, a 5% wage increase or get 5% above the market rate which is more. workers with more than a five years of experience get a 7% increase. managers get a one-time adjustment to pay plus increases planned for this fall. in a statement, the company is saying this, partners will receive the pay benefits and store improvements at all u.s. company operated stores where starbucks has the right to unilaterally make these changes but however at stores with union representation, federal law requires good faith bargaining over wages, benefits, working conditions, which prohibits starbucks from making or announcing unilateral changes. very interesting. now the company has more than

15,000 stores in the u.s. most of them company owned. just 50 are unionized. already the company has announced two wage hikes to bring its pay floor up to 15 bucks an hour by august. unionization efforts are increasing across the country as inflation hits four-year highs. as you mentioned, neil, amazon, another high-profile employ hears also been the target of union organizers. look at starbucks price, had a hard time so far this year but today on fire up nearly 7%. neil: all right, thank you very, very much for that, gerri. meantime they say we have to cut corners consumers are in terms of inflation. one 800 flowers feeling that pinch. i can't not fathom the possibility people will skimp on mom this mother's day weekend to make things meet and chris

mccann. the big cheese at 1-800 flowers. chris, you're seeing that a little bit here. going into this weekend, i'm sure one of the busier ones for you. i can't see people following through with that, unless finding cheaper alternatives for mom. what is going on? >> that's right, neil. we find consumers are recognizing important dates, those important emotions on the calendar, none more important than mother's day. -- other day, chris, i got my mother's day order, don't forget mom. that is the prevalent thought process. you can't skip mom. we're expecting a good strong mother's day. the sales the last couple holidays have been strong. we expect that to continue, neil. neil: consumer demand is somewhat impacted. you acknowledged that a little bit. i wonder whether flowers are part of that, whether people say, i really love 1-800-flowers and the stuff, great arrangements and the rest, but i

just can't swing it or i will get a slightly smaller arrangement for mom this go-round. what do you think? >> that is at great thing about the platform that we built, neil, the great collection of brands reich 1-8900-flowers and sheri's berries, we have a broad range of products and price points. not everybody can afford to spend x-amount on mom so we have price points starting at five dollars, $10, $20. we want to make sure that everybody has the opportunity to give mom the recognition they deserve because moms do run the world, you know? neil: that is what my wife keeps telling me. i am curious though, chris, all the costs associated, yours is an intense business. i think a few trucks, i think of getting the right people, getting enough people to handle all of this, and those costs are zooming up through no fault of

your own. it is what it is. we live in a inflationary environment. how do you keep a lid on all of that? >> it is challenges, because it is moving so fast, the inflationary cost pressures on company. last year we had additional costs of 100, 110 additional costs on the books last year. but because some of other efforts we were able to mitigate half of that. we're continuing to mitigate those costs going forward. you're right, it's a challenge. the last thing we want to dough as a retailer to pass costs on the consumer. the consumer is facing pressure for themselves. the challenge is price the product at right price point to deliver good value to the customer. neil: thank you very much, chris mccann, 1-800-flowers ceo. maybe this is harbinger of things to come. people draw the line, when it comes to mom, when it comes to the missus, they don't necessarily skip. we shall see. in the meantime taking a look at

that supreme court leak. we all know what the leak was about but very few questioning the leaker, after this. ♪. new projects means new project managers. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. when you sponsor a job, you immediately get your shortlist of quality candidates, whose resumes on indeed match your job criteria. visit indeed.com/hire and get started today.

♪. neil: all right. after that supreme court leak trying to find the leaker, it was something that the president was not addressing today, focusing more on the deficit, what he says is real progress there. one of the few they can cling to for the time-being but again the issue of the leaker and how this got out in the first place is already drawn comments from a number of high-level legal officials who said that at the very least an investigation is warranted, maybe a grand jury convening to look into all of this. senator james lankford, the oklahoma republican senator kind enough to join us. senator, good to have you. >> thanks. neil: you know this seems to be along party lines the outrage on the leaker is more an issue for republicans than the leak itself which was a big issue for democrats but the leaking of this information period, that is

a big deal no matter what party you're from. >> it is an enormous deal. talking about somebody that breakings the trust, what chief justice roberts called a betrayal of the supreme court. they have literally internal conversation, they could have internal debate, no one knows about it. no one knows the journey they went through as they talk through the legal issues until now. now for decades to come, every single justice will be worried in every single conversation that some staff member will leak all of this out. you can't have free conversations about the law and inserts politics into the court which is supposed to be closed off from that, so they discuss not what is politically right but what the law says. now if i say something wrong it leaks out and you have a political attack on the court. it is a very big issue, we should find out who it is. they should be disbarred, if one of clerks so they can't practice law and criminal penalties applicable applied to them because it's a big issue.

neil: senator, the consensus it seems to be had to a be more liberally-minded worker at the supreme court and that it would cause a fiery debate about where the ultimate decision goes and maybe get a justice or two off this move to overturn roe v. wade, if that is the quick interpretation. do you agree whoever was behind it was, let's say of a more liberal bent? >> right now honestly we don't know. this could be someone more liberal within one of the offices there that is trying to leak it out to cause chaos. it could also be one of the five that is on the document itself right now saying they agreed to this in february. if one of those five chosen to drop off, it could be somebody on the conservative side we want to out them, hey somebody dropped off, they were with us in february, now they're talking about leaving us. it could go either direction. a lot of conservatives are very cautious to respond to the draft

piece because we don't know the final document. we know this is authentic, the chief justice said this is an authentic draft. we don't know the final opinion and we don't know the final number. neil: good point. senator, i notice, a lot more, not necessarily the supreme court, but almost every day there is leak from the january 6 commission looking into the uprising on capitol hill that day and quite a few others that have come to light and i'm just wondering what what's going on? these are different instance i grant but i could name more, but it is increasingly common, what do you think? >> the supreme court is not a place where we see leaks. it is not supposed to be partisan, it is supposed to work on what does the law say, what do we think about that? the january 6 commission was completely partisan t was decided by nancy pelosi. it is a partisan, they will selectively leak things that

benefit them and do not leak things that don't support the narrative. leaks from the january 6 commission, they always planned. they will pull everything through to have a series of hearings they want to tell as a narrative. that doesn't surprise me. leaks from the white house, that has to stop. leaks from different offices here, that has to stop. people have to have frank conversations to work through difficult issues to come to conclusion. neil: senator, while i have you get your sense, primary in ohio, where the president trump-backed candidate, j.d. vance won, and a lot of people say it was all because donald trump endorsed him and i'm just wondering what you make of that so-called trump bump and whether that is illustrative of the direction of the party going forward? >> we'll see that in the days ahead. no question j.d. vance had a huge bump when president trump endorsed him. all the other candidates jumped on immediately to stop it and slow it down once it happens. obviously j.d. vance was already

running a good race. he was already in the top four. there was a very crowded field. so trying to find the points of differentiation is a challenge when you have a lot of people in the race but no question president trump had a huge effect on that. neil: now georgia could be a different case, sir, as you know, the former president is supporting the former senator david perdue to take on brian kemp, the sitting governor. so that might all be reversed then but as to the direction of your party, is it more in the trump model? how would you describe it? >> i would say for me personally on this, from the conservatives that i talk to it's a conservative party that we're focused on ideas and issues. we have lots of personalities in it. obviously president trump is an enormous influence in the party and engagement, around a set of ideas, inconclude issues about life, about economic development, about trade, about how we're going to handle our future? who runs the decision making whether it is families or its

government? that is conservative ideas and we have folks a lot of different areas that jump on board. ultimately no party can be described by a single person or volume. it has to be defined about i a set of ideas if it will last and really matter. neil: we'll watch closely. senator james lankford, great catching up with you. >> thanks, appreciate see you again. neil: we're about an hour away from what we could see the biggest hike of interest rates on the part of the federal reserve since 2000. bill clinton was president at the time. the idea was then to stave off inflationary pressures. indeed it worked. we got a soft landing. what about this go-round? after this. ♪.

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♪ ♪. neil: miley cyrus was talking about the federal reserve in higher interest rates i did not know that. prove me wrong. we're on top of the fed day with all indications and the stock traders seem to be okay for the time being with the dell 115 points, the federal reserve is going to lift interest rates and formally announce it an hour from now and another half-point.

that would be the single biggest advance we've seen since 2000. we've got you covered every which way, edward lawrence at the fed and what we should be expecting on all of this. also madison on what voters in arizona think about all of this pre-last but not least lauren simonetti on how those looking at the impact same to hell with this we will celebrate the good times. guess what they still have not. let's start with edward lawrence on the fed and what we can expect. >> were expecting aggressive fed today, the white consensus was a federal move 60 basis points for the federal funds rate. the official decision will come in one hour, there will also be an announcement related to the reduction of the balance sheet the balance sheet at

$9 trillion. a federal reserve member saying looking at a 95 billion-dollar reduction i june or july. the discussion is happy behind closed doors that will drive the final decision regardless of significant tightening. >> the present by the end of the, two plus by the end of the summer which is a very significant increase. we will see how they follow through on that. >> many district pads under president say they do not have a recession in their forecast but san francisco said the tightening cycle could tip the economy into recession but that is not in her forecast, indication on how fragile the line might be in the heart is inflation, joe biden made an economic address, he did not emphasize inflation pushing more spending and touting deficit reduction. >> bringing down deduction is one way to ease inflationary pressures in an economy where consequent civil war and gas

prices and oil and food, it is a different world right this moment because of ukraine and russia. reduce federal borrowing and we help combat inflation. period will have the final decision from the federal reserve the committee meeting. the federal reserve chairman with acting chairman, he is not confirmed as of yet he'll have his news conference right here. his first in-person news conference in about two years. i will be there. >> you touched on what could be the bigger story, everyone is anticipating the half-point hike in federal funds. were still trying to figure what is going to do about the 9 trillion-dollar balance sheet that refers to the treasury notes and bonds and mortgage-backed security. i will scale back 90 - 95000000000 a month, even at that rate it'll take a long time to pare that puppy down. >> it will they will mix between the treasuries that are maturing

to roll off the balance sheet and reducing the balance sheet and it depends what the mixture is long-term, short-term, what type of mixture is going off the balance sheet, that's indication is the timeframe, how big and as well what type of maturity they will keep on their balance sheet. neil: thank you very much. edward lawrence following that. let's go to madison alworth in scottsdale arizona were there very worried about inflation like they are throughout the country. what you hearing from folks? >> i been talking to voters and they are incredibly worried about inflation. it is a problem or scene is definitely feeling the cost of living goes up and they worried how they are going to keep up, not just in arizona we see across the u.s., the latest polling showing inflation is the number one concern among voters. in a state like arizona were normally immigration is the number one issue.

inflation is so bad it is now taking the top seat. take a listen. gas prices are killing me i'm losing every single paycheck, everything is going straight to gas, groceries, everything. i definitely had to cut back on how much i'm driving and where i'm going and the activities i'm doing based on inflation and gas prices and also would i go to the grocery store, figuring out what the best deals and looking for coupons. >> scene savings, retirement, pocket books declining in effect keeps going how can you not blame our current people in charge. >> it makes sense when you look at the numbers for the nation as a whole is dealing with price hikes the latest data shows phoenix inflation rate is 10.9%, then breaking that down let's take a look at the national average versus the most recent

data for phoenix. nearly 3% more expensive here and apparel 9% more expensive compared to the national average. as we talked about voters do not inspect inflation to go away anytime soon. elections are months away. you can expect voters to keep their wallets in mind would they go to the polls. >> taken for that, there are some things that consumers will not skim, what do you think it would be let's get to read from lauren simonetti. i have a feeling airbnb might be a sign of that. >> we are traveling to the big way inspected a lot of money to do so, there are two reasons behind airbnb success and cross-border travel were going overseas again. returning to cities and urban destinations are back at the prepared demo levels everybody tried to get away from the city, 102 million for the very first

time, that success comes at a cost to you. the average night stay is $160. it's not a huge number but i thought airbnb was a lot cheaper than the hotel option if you will in this 168 is 37% higher than 2019 and pushes overall revenue whether not billion dollars and is expected to billion and this quarter. this is what they say about the results. >> it is higher than 30% versus 2019, it is encouraging because it suggests the pace of travel recovery continues in the back half of the year, they say all that yet they lower their price target on airbnb to $170, is still above where the stock is now. they lowered it i'm a party pooper i'll do that again right now no memorial day or fourth of july parties this year they're bringing back the restrictions like what night stay

reservations for some customers, you can't do one that you have to do longer they don't want us to party too hard because were going to concerts again. live nation says ticket sales are up 45% since before the pandemic. remember traditional gym memberships when you workout next to people, they are higher and we like people again i don't know about you but i actually shake hands and i don't run from a huge bottle of hand sanitizer after i'm done doing that. are we returning to normal? yes, no, maybe so. neil: you're a people person and a type a person. i understand this way of thinking. we will see where it goes and how long it lasts. thank you very much. another people person joins us right now the chief market strategist. i am looking at the dow and the last couple days not like

there's anything significant from that but if they are worried about a 20 year plus spike in one day of interest rates by a half a point to have a funny way of showing it, why is that. >> they're not interested in the move today that's been well telegraphed, what they're listening to or what they're going to listen to is the following guidance. please get to think about come june and july, a couple weeks jimmy mueller came out and dropped the bomb about 75 basis points rate increases in june and july because the fed in his opinion was behind and they needed to be more aggressive, that put a conversation out into the marketplace and the public square. people were able to chew on it, think about it, could happen, maybe it won't happen.

is that aggressive or not aggressive, enough. i noticed in the last couple of days they pulled back in the trying to assure everybody that 50s go to bma, 50s going to be in june and 50 basis point rate increase, only two weeks ago fed were pricing 275. that is what is going to cause the market to become unsettled if we get that word, the way you're going to hear about it there to pick every sentence apart, if jay powell comes out and says raising 50 basis points today and i reserve the right or at least 50 basis points in june, that opens the door wide open, get ready here come 75 were gonna shove it down your throat. if he says no 50 basis points today and we expect to go 50 more in june and 50 more in july, that's what the market is expecting and therefore i think we will get relief rally out of it. the market is in a short-term oversold position.

>> if you do the math on the six or seven plan a federal open market committee meeting every six weeks or so for the minimal amount would bring it up to around 3.5% for fed funds if there more aggressive at half a point or more you can get over 4% touching 5% even if they were to move between meetings, what are you looking. >> i think they're really targeting between three and a quarter and three and a half. that's what jimmy mueller said when he tossed out the 75 basis point he said we expected three and a half by year end, they pulled back on that to try to get us into an half, the trying to calm the market so the selloff that were experiencing. >> you would have to get to that level and even more to bring us to an equilibrium or to what would be the normal range in this environment, but to do that would scare the you know what out of people. >> agreed. if inflation continues to take

higher which i think it is going to. if they want to tame it which is goal is yes to take rates above the inflation rate were certain inequity get there by the end of the year but is going to have to go there it is really concern about tamping inflation unless suddenly people stop buying products and demand seasons to exist in the inflation rate will stop by itself i don't see it happening this year, maybe it happens into 2023 but i certainly don't see it happening this year on. between three and a quarter and three and half issue that will be higher in 2024. >> how long the federal reserve, could be a situation which order term rates go up, longer-term stabilize or go down and we get a flat curve?

>> i don't see how longer-term rates are going to go down. the whole curve is going to move up were starting to see that now you saw 30 year is better than 5%. i cannot imagine they're not going to be closer to six and a half or 7% year end if we make the moves if we get to three of three and half percent and the fed funds rate i imagine how the be closer to six and a half or 7% by year end, that brings out a whole other conversation about what happened to housing, then what happens to demand as people are feeling i stock and they cannot move in there to get more conservative. then i don't see the yield curve reverting at all. i think it will move in unison. >> i appreciate that, the yield curve, the shorter term rates versus longer-term rates, again if they all move roughly in tandem estates about the same. keep an eye on that, keep it and i very much right now on whether companies start responding to

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>> you have this supreme court on roe v. wade and you are basically radio silence out of corporations across the country, not across the board but enough of what they saw going on in florida with disney in the dustup with governor desantis, i digress, let's get a read on where corporate america is going with all of this, lydia hu joined me right now. >> what is really interesting, the head of the leaked draft supreme court opinion we have a small but growing list of major companies announcement, they would help their companies access to benefit programs. amazon is the latest it announced hours before the leak that it would pay up to $4000 in travel costs for employees and companies like citigroup, dell, salesforce are also providing similar assistance with travel.

ally offering $5000 for employees facing legal issues as a result of antiabortion laws, uber and lift announced they would fully cover the legal fees for their drivers were sued under local laws in various states for providing travel to anyone in a route to obtain an abortion but some hr human resources experts tell me with the big corporations start announcing these benefits it puts pressure on smaller businesses to act similarly. >> during this time of the great resignation employees may talk about abortion, they may demand more benefits, they may have a point of view, they may want to talk about this at work. >> as you mentioned the immediate aftermath of the draft opinion from the court we've seen some companies like yelp coming out with a very clear statement in support of roe v. wade. most companies have not waited into the discourse they have not come out one way or another even

companies like disney, coca-cola, aflac and delta that awaited into the political waters with issues afforded in georgia and voting issues, they have not said anything, we reached out to them and we did not get a comment back. what were waiting to see how long can the silence last. >> there in a patient if they come out on one side the get a tip off another side. what a 50/50 country on this, you wonder what we do. >> the experts tell me even the silence on this is going to alienate customers and employees that will infuriate people it's a lose lose situation. >> were used to cup it is weighing in on that, that itself can get controversy going, thank you very much. i want to go to carry on this, the judicial crisis network, the former clerk for justice clarence thomas, good to have you. i don't want to put you on the spot i don't know if you keep in touch with justice thomas but how the court is reacting.

he might be reacting to this leak in the concern for the court in the image going forward. >> this is the kind of thing that is rocked the whole clerk because it is a shocking thing to have a leak like this, even take of big cases like bush versus gore i heard literal fighting people getting pushed in to the fountain at the court, yet no leaks. this is a huge thing that i think will really undermine the collegiality and the working relationship within the court. i think it's also got to battle the justices who thought they could trust people i think they will have to be very close to the vest and i think the chief justice is really looking into the identity and i'm sure that person at all the justices on the court are going to be so frustrated with this that that

person will face serious repercussions when he or she is found. i do hope the justice, i think this'll be the impact and they will be very careful not to allow the public pressure to affected decision-making, i think that would only encourage continued leaks like this, seems like the goal was to bully and intimidate the courts, i think if anything you should strengthen their spying to not be intimidated. neil: i caught your distinction when this person, not if you have no doubt that that person eventually will be found? >> i'm pretty confident i think about all the resources available this is the chief justice when we were prepping with how important this is people told the story telling his clerks if anyone leak he would use everything in his power to make it clear they had no longer a legal career in this town. i think the justice will take that seriously.

neil: do we know how it was leaked, was it physically given to politico or exactly how it all happened or a digital copy, what do you hear? >> i don't think that we know that yet, from the looks out of it was a printed copy that was scanned by politico and by the leaker, i don't think we know. i think a lot of that is something still to be figured out, depending on how it was leaked that could implicate another potential misuse. neil: i apologize, obviously you had standards to adhere to, handling documents of any sort, what do you think they have tightened up now in lieu of this? >> when i was working that you could never left the building something like this you could not have any interior work product leave the building whether flash drive or printed whatever i'm sure we had to modify that with the court when

virtual. and maybe some of that persisted and tightened back down again with the importance of keeping these things such close holds. neil: could you leave the building. >> when you work there were you able to leave do the inspection on the way out, what was the policy. >> that is something they may have to implement. it was clearly understood you clearly cannot leave the building with these things, no one was making you open your bags for search, that would've been insulting because everybody viewed it so professionally, there was a sense of professionalism and collegiality that even if you disagree you recognize this is so important and more important than your

political agenda. it's sad to see the institution of a court so dramatically arrest by this decision. i imagine the good have to do something like that if you cannot trust the clerks themselves. neil: well put, thank you very much. in the meantime a scary moment for comedian dave chapelle that could've been a whole lot worse in the whole lot more worrisome after this. ♪ you'll always remember buying your first car. and buying your starter home. or whatever this is. but the things that last a lifetime like happiness, love and confidence... you can't buy those. but you can invest in them. we believe that your investments should work harder for the future you imagine.

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neil: last night dave chapelle a comedy that turn deadly serious work fears that it could've turned deadly. , jonathan hunt with more from los angeles. >> police have just identified

the alleged attacker as 23-year-old isaiah, they say he's the man seen in the video being taken away on a stretcher towards an ambulance. apparently suffering facial injuries and an arm injury himself, he is being charged with assault with a deadly weapon because when he rushed the stage and launched himself at dave chapelle he was apparently carrying a gun with some sort of knife attached to it somehow, fortunately chapelle was not injured in the incident, he stayed on stage and wondered if it was a part of the show, a few hours later chris rock his fellow comedian came onto the stage and said the netflix is a joke first of all and said was that will smith, obviously chris rock make it in reference of when chris rock was presenting and made a joke about will smith's wife jada pinkett smith

and smith went on the stage and slapped chris rock. a lot of people said at the time that that set a very dangerous precedent. saying it is okay to attack a comedian on stage if you disagree with their jokes and the lack of punishment from will smith may have fed into that. a lot of comedians feared. also questions here today about security at the hollywood bowl, the netflix is a joke festival website says everybody will be subject to go through metal detectors. whatever security measures were in place last night, they very clearly failed, it could've been so much worse given this man accused of carrying out the attack 23-year-old carrying a replica gun with a knife attached to it. neil: it could've been a whole lot more serious. thank you for that, monitoring

these developments, we have more information we will pass it along it appears before our audience does that ever cross your mind this'll to get on the stage. >> at the beginning and take me out, people asked me that when you spend 22 hours a day you hoping somebody kills you, where is the by the attacker when i need him. >> the hollywood bowl that houses concerts at famous live album. traditionally the venue like that you do have 100 bouncers between the crowd and the artist. the fact that they were able to get chapelle is pretty unprecedented, they ran in and pulled the guy out but he may contact. that guy i would warn him you gotta be careful if you attack comedians they will give you an

oscar bradys gotta give up and give this acceptance speech. it's a whole to do. neil: i do wonder we were commenting during the break, maybe extreme times and maybe the thin-skinned nature, not everyone but this kind of stuff could keep happening. >> it will continue to happen. on some level we've incentivize this because there's a lot of attention to notoriety even with being bad, people are okay with living in the death of shame were the relative is bigger the dignity. i want to remind everybody in the audience i'm headlining the tampa improv and tampa it is not see rob if you sit in the front you don't get attached the animal. that is not how this works. between jokes and knocking to do a water act. neil: is kind of weird were getting more of this and people get ticked off easily you must see no matter who it is and you

do these eggs a lot there is always someone who takes offense to what do you say if you hang around after but do you think about that more? >> i personally do not but i am aware that most people do. the reason i say i do don't. for two reasons the thing about life performing that makes it so wonderful you truly don't know what's going to happen. i rebel and having to put out fire. the guy that spent a lot of time driving a cab you run on diversity there is a mariotti band and the higher check needs to get there. i've seen some things. the point is when i'm on stage i thrive on the chaos but a lot of comics don't know where to go. what i mean there bigger name comics who have seeded a lot of ground for the outreach. we near seinfeld or steve harvey said i'm not playing college because the rules are so hard.

the only harsh because we agreed to them the bigger names that these people establish the terms of engagement with push the smaller comics in a bad position. chapelle will be fine there's going to be security but if you are playing the chuckle hut or one of those places. you better have a decent talk in these day and age. neil: there are some venues that with the am not going there, i don't want to go there because it's open season. >> they are literally calling the punchlines for a whole different reason. actual punchlines. >> when you plan an act, you obviously have to keep it going for a few hours you're going over everything that's going on. you have to appeal to the lighter side hard to do given everything going on these days. how do you balance that, you're gonna take off somebody because you not balancing enough or you're being too frivolous. >> you keep the room on your

side, you'll hear a phrase thrown around called lead the room because as a comedian your job is to lead the room. you're the only one with the microphone you set the rules of engagement. if you buy yourself currency with the vast majority of the room, they turn on the outreach person for you. something you will see a lot on saturday nights, this is as old as time and the bachelorette party shows up with their wacky straws and genitalia hats and everything. the wildly disruptive but if you are funny and pushing back, the room sticks with you instead of them, that is no different than a heckler. if you're cool and trying to continuously bar bargain with a heckler in good faith you get through it. what a lot of comics do they get frustrated and they start operating from a place of malice even a room that loves you will turn on you if they see you beating up a drunkard that doesn't know better they will say layoff cavuto. the man is tired. >> iran into this covered the bond market.

i had to stand by my principles. >> they don't do the two drink minimum at the bond market. neil: it's a tenure, you're the best thank you very much. he's a funny guy and he gets it, we ought to take it down a notch. frightened. we will have more after this. like the time she spotted the neighbor kid, an approaching car, a puddle, and knew there was going to be a situation. ♪ ♪ ms. hogan's class? yeah, it's atlantis. nice. i don't think they had camels in atlantis. really? today she's a teammate at truist, the bank that starts with care when you start with care, you get a different kind of bank.

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neil: the battle to who is the true conservative and all these races. pennsylvania the keystone state that's what doctor oz is facing right now. a battle royale, that's get the very latest from alexander huff in homestead pennsylvania. >> were in the western part of the state outside of pittsburgh,

in this area voters are concerned with the economy, energy, public safety but just as the candidates were getting out the last-minute messaging the supreme court leak happened, we see demonstrations advocating for abortion rights and democrats like lieutenant governor john federman who was on a comfortable lead over conor lamb in the senate race is hoping it like a fire under the party. >> it should be a very concerning moment for all americans. >> you cannot sit back and relax and think things will continue on the same way that they have. republicans cohesion, seven republicans are still buying for the senate nomination it's competitive and no one has a clear lead but not connect the hedge fund ceo david mccormick last month doctor oz earned former trump's endorsement and he's been past statements like abortion will hurt him, he

believes he is a backward required for this job. >> i can step into these weathered inflation or the energy crisis were the border, with a set of experiences that will help me make a difference on day one. >> we expect to speak with doctor oz tomorrow morning. the leading candidates on the republican side will face on a debate, president trump will hold a rally in the commonwealth tomorrow, this'll be a test to see doctor oz or if the trump endorsement will do as much for doctor oz as it has done for jd vance in ohio. neil: figure that, alexander and homestead pennsylvania, the next few weeks and months it'll be about each party divided itself in the face it wants to present in the midterm elections say nothing of the presidential contest two years after that. we are all over the stock market right now up in the face of interest rates that are really going to go up, that is

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>> elon musk's quest for twitter might seemed like a done deal but not of it leaves more than two dozen organizations have their way warning it would be bad for everybody concerned if he succeeds, kelli o'grady with more on that in l.a. >> the anti-elon musk campaign is heating up, 20 organizations including blm and the woman's march urging advertisers to boycott if he delivers on his promise for unfettered free speech to the platform targeting top advertisers like apple and hbo the groups argued your brand with association with the platform amplifying hate, extremism, and conspiracy theorist, under the elon musk's management approval the misinformation, the group suicide these letters are left winging to george soros open

society foundation or ngos with undisclosed by former clinton and obama administration staffers something that he must've just highlighted the hypocrisy tweeting who fund these organizations that want to control your access to information, let's investigate, digging in the list includes everyone from foreign government to big tech itself, lexington human rights access now, european governments like germany and denmark, george soros and twitter itself amongst its donors. another accountable is a 5o1c4 it does not have to disclose its donors, the cofounder is a foreign-policy spokesperson for hillary clinton's campaign. the timing of the letter is no coincidence, it calms advertiser fears that the annual presentation this evening similar past efforts like meta have not proved effective, summer 2020 boycott, only a thousand of more than 9 million brands publicly joined the effort. all is not lost for elon as of now.

neil: thank you very much, you obviously know what elon musk said he has a lot of enterprises, 100 billion-dollar plus venture which he has half ownership, you might not of her to smaller players that are having great success despite all the success elon musk is having because they focus on a small smaller narrow market. the phantom space ceo just to put their six success into some perspective hundreds of rocket engines put together by the major are going to the space company phantom space and the next few years. he joins us right now, very good to have you. >> where is your niche if you can help me understand we all know the big private enterprise like elon musk and what jeff bezos is doing, you have a near approach, can you explain. >> is not just from the billionaires anymore, i'm not a

billionaire myself. we are focused on making billions of dollars by mass-producing smaller rockets that fit the market. while spacex really has ultimately a large focus, i'm a capitalist and were remaking the space industry that was originally when the cold war, overdoing it to win the next congress were in space. neil: who seeks you out for these launches? and how much business and how much can you fit in your pocket to keep it going? >> what most people don't know, last year over half the satellites that went into space a small rockets weighed a thousand pounds or less or small satellites, small satellites have dominated the industry and were rising up to service in the

quadrant of the market which is done by small vehicles. no different than driving a car as opposed to bus to work. that's the analogy were at because were small we can employ mass production in the henry ford of space and bring the cost down by three or four times make it assessable to a lot more people, that is the big idea. neil: if i want to launch up with you via your rocket, obviously is prohibitively less expensive that if i sought out spacex or the larger vendor. what do you offer me if someone who wants to get my stuff up there. >> for $4 million i launch a thousand pound satellite into orbit. if you go to spacex you have to content to others on the bigger rocket and if you want to buy the rocket all by yourself it could be $80 million. we get the ticket price way down on a cost per pound were very

competitive if not more competitive. neil: i notice a number of countries are getting into this, they see as you did. there is a niche that can be filled. in the law are seizing on that niche in trying to one up you, how are you staying ahead? >> were doing uniquely three and a half and four years we've gone from a startup company and we expect to launch and it took spacex avenues to do that with her first rocket falcon one it took nasa 15 years to do that with the last shuttle. we are faster marking the line on the supply chain much like the automotive industry and were not going to invent everything ourselves. we're treating this like a regular industry rather than a very expensive aerospace and. >> event in the latest order and

you said at the time, we placed the order based on how far out we can see the demand. we see the demand is pretty strong and growing, what is behind it. >> there is a lot of venture capital going on and a lot of private equity money going into the space industry, those go to the space applications looking at the earth and moving this around the earth, that sort of thing that ends up being launched. were at the bottom of the food chain and it's a strategic thing to have. what the government are finding, they would rather come to people like us and by our services and try to do it ourselves, they cannot compete either on price. neil: interesting, keep us up-to-date is getting people's attention. phantom space ceo and speaking

of rockets and going into space, were to go higher on interest rates. see what i did there. i would for you. i joined the world. right now higher rates and higher stock, that does not always happen but it's happening today. we'll have more after this. ♪ . .

neil: very close to a federal reserve decision to hike rates. most markets think there will be half-point hike in overnight rate of bank funds. balance sheet, paring it downs all things and issues our charles payne has been on before anyone. he joins us now. hey, charles. charles: thank you, my friend. i'm charles payne, this is making money. breaking it down, today is the day. we'll find out how far the fed will go to tamp down inflation. the consensus is a 50 basis-point hike. there is growing camp that much be a stronger statement. there are issues like supply chain, food prices. the market has been slammed ahead of this. it is still vulnerable. i cannot overstate the importance of the next hour. meanwhile feast or famine for

companies reporting earnings. if you beat you may be slightly reward. if you miss, your stock will be destroyed. here is the question, is now the time to finally buy the dip? private payrolls adding jobs in april. small businesses lost workers. scary news on many fronts. runaway inflation, historic wages, will america's backbone survive? what will the fed do. let's get right to edward lawrence in washington, d.c. reporter: federal reserve i can tell you has now raised interest rates by 50 basis points. that is what the market expected. the fed also plans to reduce the balance sheet starting on june 1st. that balance sheet run off will be treasurys 30 billion a month for first three months. on september first, the roll-off will increase to 60 billion a month for treasurys only. mortgage-backed securities that roll off, 17.5 billion per month first three months and september first that will increase to 35 billion.