growth over 5% but most forecast ers have growth this year at a solid pace, above 2%. >> but we've talked with economists who have advised democrats and republican presidents who both said that the fed is so far behind the curve on inflation that a recession is inevitable. >> as i said, i think we have a good chance to restore price stability without a recession, without a severe downturn, without materially higher unemployment, and i mentioned the reasons for that, so i see a strong economy now, i see a very strong labor market, for example , businesses can't find the people to hire. they can't find them, so typically in a recession you'd have unemployment. now you have surplus demand, so there should be room in principle to reduce that surplus demand without putting people out of work. the issue will come that we don't, we don't have precision surgical tools. we have essentially interest

rates, the balance sheet and forward guidance, and they are famously blunt tools, they aren't capable of surgical precision, so i would agree. no one thinks this will be easy. no one thinks it's straightforward, but there's certainly a plausible path to this and i do think we've got a good chance to do that and our job is not to rate the chances. it is to try to achieve it so that's what we're doing. there are a range of opinions though, and that's only appropriate. reporter: thanks, steve dorsey, cbs. you mentioned just earlier fading fiscal policy. do you feel that the fed has been supported enough from policies at the white house and in congress in combating inflation? >> you know, it's really the fed that has responsibility for price stability, and we take whatever arrives at the fed in terms of fiscal activity, we take it as a given and we don't

evaluate it, we don't, it's not our job, really. we don't have an oversight function there and we look at it as our job to given all the factors that are happening to try to sustain maximum employment and price stability, so if congress or the administration has ways to help with inflation, i would encourage that but i'm not going to get into making recommendations or anything like that. it's really not our role. we need to stay in our lane and do our job. when we get inflation back under control, then maybe i can give other people advice. right now, we need to focus on -- >> [laughter] >> -- just focus on doing our job and i'll stick to that, stick in our lane. >> steve matthews. reporter: steve matthews with bloomberg news. a number of your colleagues have said that rates will need to go above neutral and to a restricted territory to bring

down inflation. one, do you agree with that and two, you've recently spoken great praise of paul volcker who had the courage to bring inflation down with recessions in the 1980s and while it certainly isn't your desire, the soft landing is the big hope of everyone, would this fomc have the courage to endure a recession to bring inflation down, if that were the only way necessary? >> so, i think it's certainly possible that we'll need to move policy to levels that we see as restrictive as opposed to just neutral. we can't know that today, that decision is not in front of us today, if we do conclude that we need to do that then we won't hesitate to do it. i'll say again there's no bright line that you're stepping over. you're really looking at what our policy stance is and what the market is forecasting for , looking at financial conditions, and how that's affecting the economy, and making a

judgment. we won't be arguing about whose model of the neutral rate is better than the other one. it's much more about a practical application of our policy tools, and we're absolutely prepared to do that. wouldn't hesitate if that's what it takes, so i am of course, who isn't an admirer of paul volcker , i shouldn't be singled out but i knew him just a little bit and have tremendous admiration for him and i'd phrase it this way. he had the courage to do what he felt was the right thing. that's what it was. it wasn't any particular thing. it was that the he always did, he always did what he felt was the right thing. if you read his last autobiography that really comes through, so that's the test is isn't will we do one particular thing. i would say we do see though, we see restoring price stability as absolutely essential for the country in coming years. without price stability, the economy doesn't work for anybody, really, and so it's really essential, particularly

for the labor market. if you look at the last cycle, we had a very very longest expansion cycle in our recorded history. in the last two, three years, you had the benefits of this tight labor market going to people in the lower quartiles and it was, you know, wealth and income gaps coming down beings wage gaps, so it's a really great thing we would all love to get back to that place but to get back to anything like that place you need price stability, so we've been basically hit by historically large inflationary shocks since the pandemic. it's not, this isn't anything like regular business. this is, we have a pandemic, we have the highest unemployment since the depression, then we have this outsized response from fiscal policy and monetary policy and then we have inflation and then we have a war in ukraine which is cutting the commodity patch in half, and now we have these shutdowns in china so its been a series of

inflationary shocks that are really different from anything people have seen in 40 years, so , we have to look through that and look at the economy that's coming out the other side and we need to get , we need to somehow find price stability out of this and it's obviously going to be very challenging i think because you do have, you know, numerous supply shocks which are famously difficult to deal with. so, i guess that's how i think about it. >> chris. reporter: thank you. chris rugaber, associated press. earlier, you just said that if necessary, i think was the word, that you would or if it turned out to be necessary, or you said it's possible that we'll need to move policy to restrictive levels. given where inflation is and the hot labor market as you described it, why still the hesitation? shouldn't it be what else do you need to see in order to determine that, wouldn't the fed

naturally be looking to go to a restrictive level at at this point? thank you. >> so i said necessary, i meant to say appropriate. we're not going to be erecting a high barrier for this. it's more if we think it's appropriate. you know, the point is we're very long away from neutral now. we're moving there expeditiously and we'll continue to do so, and we don't have to make, we can't make that decision really today. the decision for about how high to go will be on the table to be made when we reach neutral, and i expect we'll get there expeditiously as i mentioned, so it's not that we're not, we don't want, making that decision today wouldn't really mean anything, but i'll say again, if we do believe that it's appropriate to go to those level s we won't hesitate: reporter: mike mcgee from bloomberg television and radio:

the balance sheet, why did you decide to wait until june 1 to begin letting securities roll off and not start immediately start in the middle of this month say and do you have another newer or a better estimate for the monetary policy impact of letting the balance sheet decline? and then finally, i'm just curious why you felt the need to address the american people at the top of your remarks. are you concerned about fed credibility with the american people? >> so why june 1? it was just pick a date, and that happens to be, that happened to be the date that we picked: there's nothing magic about it. it's not going to have nih any macroeconomic significance overtime. sometimes we publish these carls on the first day of the month and that's what we're doing. i wouldn't read anything into it in terms of the effect, i mean, i would just stress how uncertain the effect is of shrinking the balance sheet.

we run these models and everyone does in this field and make estimates of what will be, how do you measure a certain quantum of balance sheet shrinkage compared to quantitative easing and these are very uncertain, i really can't be any clearer. there won't be any clearer, people estimate that broadly on the path we're on and this will be taken probably too seriously, but sort of one rate increase over the course of a year at this pace, but i would just say, with very wide uncertainty, very wide. we don't really know. there are other estimates that are much smaller than that by the way and some of you may have read about that. that's kind of a mainstream estimate. we know that it is part of returning to more normal, more neutral financial conditions and you know, our strategy is to

setup a plan and have it operate and really have, you know, have the interest rate be the active tool of monetary policy. in terms of speaking to the american people, so i feel like sometimes i just want to remind us, really, that that's who we work for and that it's inflation that people are feeling all over the country and it's very important that they know that we know how painful it is and that we are working hard on fixing it i thought it was quite important to do that, and so that was really the thinking behind that. >> do you think the fed has a credibility problem? >> no, i don't. a good example of why it be that so in the fourth quarter of last year, as we started talking about tapering sooner and then raising rates this year, you saw financial markets reacting very

appropriately, not to bless any particular days measure, but the way financial markets, the forward rate curve has tightened in response to our guidance and our actions really amplifies our policy. monetary policy is working through expectations now to a very large extent, we've only done two rate increases but if you look at financial conditions , the two year is at 280 now, in september i think it was at 20 basis points and that's all through the economy. people were feeling those higher rates already and so that shows that the markets think that our forward guidance is credible and i think that's, we want to keep it that way. >> brian? reporter: hi there, brian chung with yahoo finance. to expand on steve's question

about paul volcker there was also a great pain that came with that as well, higher interest rates, obviously affecting households and businesses and i'm wondering how you kind of square what might be demand destruction. are you already seeing that? is the idea here to incentivize a lack of spending, to decrease consumption, to perhaps table business investments. is that essentially what's happening to this cycle? >> so as i mentioned, you can see places where the demand is substantially in excess of supply and what you're seeing as a result of that is prices going up, and at levels that are not consistent with 2% inflation, and so what our tools do is they , as we raise interest rates , demand moderates and it moves down. interest rates, you know, businesses will invest a little bit less, consumers will spend a little bit less, that's how it works but ultimately getting supply and demand back in balance is what gives us 2% inflation, which is what gives

the economy a footing where people can lead successful economic lives and not worry about inflation. i mean, so yes, there maybe some pain associated with getting back to that but the big pain is in not dealing overtime is in not dealing with inflation and allowing it to become entrenched >> greg. reporter: thank you, chair power , greg rob from marketwatch i was wondering if you could take a step back and talk about in march, the dot plot had steady looked like steady quarter-point rate hikes, get the funds rate up to 2% at the end of the year. now, it seems like you're much more aggressive, so could you talk about the thinking that's behind that? thank you. >> so look, i think what you've seen is really, i would say last fall, in the middle of last fall

, there was a time when our policy stance was still pretty much in sync with what the data we're seeing if you remember there were a couple of weak jobs reports and inflation that actually month by month inflation had come down until september a few months in a row, stayed low, and then around the end of october, we got three or four really strong readings that just said no, this is a much-stronger economy, and by the way, then with the re statement of the jobs numbers, it looked like the job market was much more even and stronger in the second half of the year, but that hadn't happened yet. anyway, we got an eci reading, employment compensation index reading, the friday before the november meeting and then we got a really strong jobs report and then we got a really high cp i report and so i think it became clear to the committee that we needed to adjust, and adapt, and we have. ever since then, really ever since then, we've been adapting.

the committee moved by the time of the december meeting to a meeting of three rate increases then to a meeting of seven rate increases at the march meeting and that process is going on, and it's clearly continuing, and that's why i say and i actually mention this at the march meeting that no one should look at any single sep as sort of a real resting place for 90 days, because we're in a fast-evolving situation and that's what's happened. you can see unanimous vote today , of course, and i told you the guidance that broad support on the committee to have 50 basis point hikes on the table at the next couple of meetings, so you're right. and by the way other forecasters have been doing the same thing, and it's just us adapting to the data and to the situation and using our tools to deal with it. >> we'll go to nancy for the last question. reporter: hi, nancy marshall gen sler with market place. chair powell, i want to ask how

you're able to balance your dual mandate, stable prices and maximum employment, especially when the unemployment rate for black workers is still roughly double roughly twice the rate for white workers. >> so unemployment rates for all racial groups have come down a lot and are now much closer to where they were before the pandemic hit, so that's one thing i would say and that's important, but the bigger point is this. i do not, at this time, see the two sides of the mandate as intention. i don't, because you can see that the labor market is out of balance. you can see that there's a labor shortage. there aren't enough people to fill these job openings & companies can't hire and wages are moving up at levels that would not overtime be consistent with 2% inflation overtime, and of course, everyone loves to see

wages go up and it's a great thing but you want them to go up at a sustainable level because these wages are to some extent being eaten up by inflation so what that really means is to get the kind of labor market we really want to get , we really want to have a labor market that serves all americans, especially the people in the lower income part of the distribution, especially them, to do that you've got to have price stability and we've got to get back to price stability so that we can have a labor market where people's wages aren't being eaten up by inflation, and where we can have a long expansion too. that's the good thing, as we've had, we had several of the longest expansions in u.s. history have been in the last 40 years, and that's because its been a time of low inflation, and long expansions are good for people and good for the labor market, so that's the way i think about it. i think, you know, our tools work. we had to think in the medium and longer term and i do think that the best thing for everyone is for us to get

back to price stability, to support really a sustained period of strong labor market conditions. thanks very much. liz: well there you have it, federal reserve chief jay powell has the markets running higher, thrilling the markets as he all but removed the prospect of anything bigger than a 50 basis point hike, which is just, of course what we saw. the feds rate setting committee just tacked on that 50 basis point move, to interest rates and the markets response, swift and decisive. right now we've got the dow pretty close to session highs, the s&p up 99, look at the nasdaq, it had been down, it's up 318 points. the fed did exactly what the markets expected he would do in its battle against sky high inflation, but you know, it was precisely we were looking at this around 2:43 p.m. eastern time that stocks really took off as you look at these intraday

charts we're putting out for you with the major indices, you'll see before 2:00 p.m. that's when the announcement came out, 2:00 p.m. eastern the dow was up around 137, s&p was up 18, nasdaq was up 35, but once the decision to raise the benchmark interest rate by half a percent came out, the bulls burst out in fuller force. now, the fed jacked up the range of rates to three-quarters to 1% , now powell pretty much said get used to these moves 50 basis point increases on the table for both the june and july meetings, stressing that the goal is to tamp down soaring inflation. he basically said, their work is far from done. now, one of the few warnings powell gave, he said that the war in ukraine and covid lockdowns in china are "likely to weigh on economic activity by increasing inflationary pressure and supply chain issue" earlier in the session, let's get to it, the 10 year treasury yield hit 3% for the second day in a row, but retreated instant ly at the time of the announcement, we now have it

sitting at 2.937%. okay that's a pretty big drop from 3% in one single session. now financials, let's take a look at those they are gaining steam in this final hour of trade, because banks make more money on loans when interest rates are elevated so you've got everybody from citi, morgan, bank of america, jpmorgan, goldman sachs up anywhere from one to nearly 3 or 4%. let's look at the dollar that initially dropped to session lows currently, the yen, the euro, the pound sterling, major currencies are still stronger against the green back at this point and now in perhaps the biggest sign investors have no problem, at least for the moment, with the feds moved to, the vix is dropping. before the news conference, the vix or volatility index, was down about 1%. wall street's gauge right now down 10.75% so calm, complacency at the moment, we have this powerful rally in play mainly for one reason. fed chair powell clipped the

hawkish wings, check the volt of electricity on the chart when powell during that news conference effectively nixed the prospect of future, bigger double barrel hikes listen. >> 75 basis point increase is not something the committee is actively considering. what we are doing is we raised 50 basis points today and we've said that again, assuming that economic and financial conditions evolve in ways that are consistent with our expectations, there's a broad sense on the committee that additional 50 basis point increases should be on the table for next couple of meetings, so we're going to make those decisions at the meetings, of course and we'll be paying close attention to the incoming data and the evolving -- liz: okay, so data dependent joining me now to kind of parse everything that he has said, mizuho securities chief economist steve risuto and stifel chief economist, lindsay

piexa. lindsay, i want to begin with you. what did powell say in your opinion that gives you the best idea of how he and the fomc will proceed beyond, we'll start to see 50 basis point hikes in june , july, and is that enough to get the arms around this bear of inflation? >> well what's interesting is because the chairman, yes, took the 75 basis point increase off the table, but he also emphasiz ed the committee's focus on a soft landing, sending a signal that while we may see some additional 50 basis point increases, the committee is likely to back off, back to 25 basis point increases, if needed, in order to ensure a more soft landing or a more tamed response from the economy, emphasizing that yes, the economy at this point can withstand a further rise in rates as the household balance sheet and financial balance sheets are well-equipped, and the labor market is solid, but he also highlighted those down side risks stemming from ongoing policy response

overseas, and of course, international conflict. liz: steve? all you have to do is talk to ceo's and we do that every single day here. they say everything is more expensive. wages, their materials, things they have to buy, the time that they wait for the supply chain issues to work their ways through, so a 50 basis point hike. i mean listen i'm not pushing, but here and there piecemeal is that going to be enough to solve the problem that jay powell is very clear about. we have to deal with inflation. >> well, it's not the 50 basis point move per se that we're talking about. it's what's been discounted into the marketplace. the marketplace going into the fomc meeting today and the announcement had discounted 3% fed funds rates by the end of the year. you've got to remember we started the year at 0-25 basis points so that's a very very large move. you go back in history you got to go back to the 1994 period, where alan greenspan did orchestrate a soft landing with a 300 basis point rise in rates and ask yourself a question, are we in a comparable period in 1994 and the answer is no we're

not. the effect of the rate hikes this time are actually going to be greater than they were in 1994 because offsetting the move at the front end in 1994 was a big decline in long term interest rates. not only that, we came off of a very very deep recession and we had a jobless recovery, which meant that there was still pent-up demand by the time the fed was raising rates. this time there through is no pent-up demand so the effect is a much more dramatic slow down in the economy than the fed has been anticipating and i think they are looking at what's happened in terms of forward rates and saying wait a second maybe we're getting a little too farfetched here maybe we pushed things too far let's take a pause and see. i don't think they've eliminated 75 basis points at all, i think they have just taken off the table for the next two meetings. liz: am i hearing you say the r word, recession that's what's coming and that's why they see that? >> i think it's a growth recession and what i mean is the economy is going to dip below potential gdp for several quarters we've already seen one negative report i would not be surprised to see another negative gdp report.

liz: lindsay, we just got data out today as that small businesses and yesterday are getting killed by the bigger businesses who can afford to pay higher wages to lure workers, and the small guys who are the backbone of this u.s. economy cannot. let me play what fed chief powell said about wages. it was almost like he said that it was like he was whistling in the dark, hoping that we don't have a wage price spiral. listen and then i'll have you comment. >> we don't see a wage price spiral. we see that companies have the ability to raise prices and they're doing that but there have been price shocks, so i just think it takes you back to the basic point was that we know we need to expeditiously move our policy rate up to ranges of more normal, neutral levels and we need to look around and keep going if we don't see that financial conditions have tightened adequately or that the economy is behaving in ways that suggest that we're not where we need to be.

liz: lindsay, no 75 basis point hikes for now, even as you hear forget the restaurants and bars they are really having trouble. i was talking to a dentist who cannot find people to make the molds for things like mouth guards and things like that. they can't find workers, so is powell a little late in the game here, or not being sort of focused enough on what's going on with wages? >> well i think he's focused on the policy metrics that he can control. trying to entice sideline workers back into the labor market is really a result of lingering fiscal policies. from a monetary policy standpoint, the inflationary pressures that he's focused on are stemming from the supply side of the equation. when he talks about the ongoing supply chain disruptions, when he talks about the further disruptions to the agriculture sector, the energy sector, as a result of international conflict , this is where he says a lot of that price pressure is coming down the pipeline but it will expect to ease.

the fed remains very optimistic that as balances restored we'll start to see inflation tick down in the second half of this year and markedly decline in 2023, so i think that focus on where the price pressures are coming for outside of fiscal policy implications is really driving the feds focus at this point. liz: boy, steve, we're looking at a major rally here. you know, you've got the dow jones industrial up 760 points, s&p, nasdaq charging ahead and you know, earlier i was looking at some of the movements here. you earlier had the nasdaq down 196 points. the dow had been down 106 the s&p down 26 and you can see there is a complete reversal here. is this relief? put a word on it. >> well i think you're 100% correct. if you think about the algorithm s that drive a lot of the purchase in the equity market are driven off the 10 year note and the 10 year note yield came down rather dramatically so you're seeing a nice reversal in the marketplace a lot of equity investors have been holding on to the view that

the fed would take a pause at some point in terms of not over killing the economy. i happen to disagree with that view. i still think that you're going to be in an environment here in which we're going to have a much , much more dramatic slow down in the economy than the markets are currently anticipating and i think there will be an additional adjustment that takes place in the equity market. doesn't mean we can't end the year on a good note. the next big shoe to drop is when analysts begin to revise down their earnings numbers which we haven't seen happen. most of them just holding their earnings numbers together and that's why the earnings revision trackers are dropping. the next big shoe to drop in equities is really when analysts start taking down their 2023 numbers and i think that's going to happen in the next couple weeks. liz: oh, okay so you're pretty bearish on earnings, and what happens as we go down the line. lindsay, what distortions do you see by the fed maybe being a little late, if you do believe that, and now really worried there could be a recession and that's crimping their ability to tamp down inflation. >> well we're already seeing

some signs of weakness in the economy. the latest reads on the ism manufacturing indices, the ism service sector indices what we're starting to see this loss of momentum, we're still in positive territory, we're still see seeing positive activity but it's that second derivative decline giving way to a slower pace of positive growth , and as that momentum continues to wane, as fiscal stimulus drains from the system, as consumers eat through that existing stockpile of wealth accumulated during the pandemic, we're going to return, not only to pre pandemic levels of gdp which was if you remember, slower closer to 2%, but we're likely to see a further loss of activity as the fed continues to tighten, with the first real negative print in the first quarter of next year, as we're predicting. liz: wow okay folks we're now seeing a gain for the dow of 813 points, nasdaq up 331, s&p up 105 question is does it last? lindsay, steve, wonderful to have you, a lot happening folks,

right now, we're blowing out the commercials staying right now with wall street. how about wall street, is it ready for any kind of uncertainty that may come as we wait to see if the rate hikes will succeed in cooling the super-hot inflation we now have? to our equities guru bob doll, c io of crossmark global investments bob in light of what jay powell just said translate for stock investors whether the investing cast just got smoother or rock ier. today, it looks great if you're a bull. >> sure does, we were oversold with 2020 hindsight but we're down a lot. there's a lot of recession fear that has crept into the market, liz, and i don't think we have signs that there's a recession around the corner. slowdown for sure. feds got a lot of work ahead of them and i think the chair today in his comments is trying to restore credibility. he was very straightforward, cool, calm, talked about the variables they can control which is only a limited number

and then just speculated what might happen from here, i think the stock market is saying got the 50 out of the way maybe we got a couple more 50s sounds like he took 75 off the table. liz: yeah. >> and he talked about the economy doing okay, and i think the markets saying yeah, not a recession tomorrow morning , we'll go up a little bit today. liz: okay, he did. i'm going to say he did take 75 basis points off the table. you know, i had our team right. he nixes 75 basis points for now , i had take off the for now. i mean, he was very very serious about that, and it feels like that's what the market heard as well, so, how then do you alter your stock-picking strategy, bob? >> i don't know that it changes a lot as a result of this meeting. maybe the concern, the fed would overdo it too quickly. they want to see what the reaction is going to be. we're seeing some signs of economy slowing, many of us believe and the chair reiterated this , that inflation will peak here in the second quarter.

the question is how far does it drop? my view is it's not going to drop enough and that will cause more issues but in the meantime we get some relief. liz: and by how much to that point? by how much, let's just say you have a couple of years of ability to keep investing, and that's your time horizon. by how much would you have to be invested in stocks to beat inflation, bob? that's the question. i mean the old 60/40 that's kind of dated isn't it? >> yeah, a little bit. the 40 has been really tough, not that the 60 has been easy as well, but look, depends where inflation ends up. we were at two seems like forever. we crept pretty quickly to eight i suspect by the end of the year we're going to look at a four handle, that's still not supportive of valuations where we are, so we could have a problem, but in the meantime, the bulls are going to say, if inflation does peak in the second quarter, see? i told you not to worry about inflation and we'll have to see what recedes to before we

can get a grip on what's the right valuation level. liz: oh, my goodness, we just hit another session high for the dow up 871 points, let's keep going here, bob. what stock picking rules must any kind of stock that you're looking at have to have before you will allow them entry into a portfolio at this point? guide our listeners and viewers. >> i still care about quality . the quality of the balance sheet , the quality of the management, the consistency and predict ability of earnings. that's really important. i think we also have to say you need some diversification, so yes, i want some tech i prefer old tech to new tech or cheaper tech i want some financials and it's nice to see them yet again doing so well today, but give me some healthcare, some healthcare providers. in those areas, you can find the quality comments that i made at the front end. liz: let's get to some of the names that you like and i

thought this was interesting. you have picked intel for the moment. intel, of course down about 20% year-over-year, just last month hit an annual low of about $ 43.50 it's at $46.52, having a nice session today up 3.25% but what upside do you see intel having, especially considering that pal gelsinger the ceo of intel just said that for his company, he sees this chip shortage lasting well into 2024. >> correct, and that's why pat is engaging on we intel are going to make our own chips. that's going to take time but the stocks not suggesting that they have all the chips they need, selling at only 12 or 13 times earnings. i like the fact that it's an old tech company that's remaking itself, at a pretty cheap price with the quality comments that i mentioned earlier. that's why we like intel. if you want to play cisco or ibm, the old tech names that are cheaper in value, given that we're struggling with pe ratios.

liz: again, we are now hitting a new session high, dow jones industrials up 901 points, folks , and i'm reading this out because i know that we've got a lot of listeners on xm 113 so i want them to know if they are driving don't go off the turnpike. anthem, you like that one too, but let me get to names that you haven't mentioned. i'm talking about apple, microsoft, google, amazon, meta, between those five, more than two and a half trillion of market cap has been wiped out from just those five companies and this makes me wonder, how overdone was that sell-off? it's almost like wie have a sell-off bubble. >> of the five, i still own the apple, the microsoft, thinking those companies will make it through. they aren't extended in price like some of the other very high growth tech. the other names on your list have stumbled a bit, so far microsoft and apple are making its way through. we think they are good holdings. liz: okay, some might argue though that there are other areas where we've seen much more

that needs to shake out. a lot of the spacs that had gone public. you know, do you look at any of those names and say let's avoid them or let's jump in? >> i would generally as a class not want to own those names. they don't have the quality, they don't have the continuity or the aging that you want in a market that's got more treacherous. you want some dependability, management that you know well, have delivered through time, and that's why i stay with some of the names we've talked about. liz: bob, and again, you also like as we said anthem, prudential, anthem has a pretty good let's see , prudential has a good dividend of about 4.4%. for people who might just be a little put off by all the volatility and they don't believe that these gains will hold, is it better to go into these dividend-paying names just so they can have a little bit of peace of mind? >> that's partly why i put prudential and i like financials

, if you're aggressive go with the banks up big time today but if you want more stability in a higher yield a name like prudential, a good risk manager, good balance sheet is the stability you're looking for , but i own the more aggressive names as well. liz: bob, so good to have your voice on this show thank you so much, my friend. >> thank you, liz. liz: nice move, he's bullish but on the good quality names. check the dow, we do have once again, a gain of 862 points, just off the highs of the session of more than 900 points jumping. we've got this fox business alert we need to get to you. starbucks shares getting a major caffeine jolt right now, take a look. we've got it up about 10 and one -third percent investors drinking up the java chain, the first earnings report with former ceo howard schultz back at the helm, revenue surpassed expectations thanks to a jump in u.s. sales which he made it clear helped cushion the blow from the china lockdowns happening right now. mainland store revenue fell 23%, schultz says the lockdowns have

clouded starbucks' out look he's suspending guidance for the rest of the year. as we look at the fiscal year elsewhere and looking at the other names let's move on to tupperware the stock is hitting a two year low down 34% after the food storage container company withdrew full year guidance due to surging costs. this is what i just brought up with lindsay because materials are still very very high. the inflation level is coding all over these things. the war in ukraine is a problem as well. covid-19 lockdowns in china, same as with starbucks, tupperware is having a trouble there. sales fell short of estimates. i need you to look at crowdstrike, and some of the other names in cybersecurity , fort net, palo alto networks, we've got crowdstrike and fort net turning around slightly higher but palo alto networks still falling about 1% after seeing more weakness earlier in the session. there is a new report by cybersecurity firm cyber reason, which says a chinese state actor

siphoned off trillions in intellectual property theft from about 30 multinational companies within everything from manufacturing to energy, pharma sectors, spanning the globe, stealing that intellectual property and then funneling it back through to chinese companies to get the edge on america's leadership. shares of ride hailing services lyft and uber, boy, they are going off road still at this hour particularly lyft. lyft is tumbling down 29% after it issued disa pointing guidance for the second quarter and said it would increase spending to attract more drivers as they battle surging gasoline prices, inflation, everybody. uber posted a pretty significant loss on investments which included grab, aurora and didi but it did post surging revenue. uber for its part getting dinged by about 4% to the downside. mortgage rates jump the fed gun weeks ago and now the average 30

year fixed rate is markedly higher than even just two months ago. will lofty lending rates douse the housing market and in turn, how might that affect the company that relies on people buying and then renting out their homes for travelers? airbnb ceo brian chesky joins us live in studio next, closing bell we're 21 minutes away and we have that rally in full swing , dow up 896, s&p up 119, we've got that nasdaq up 374. "clayman countdown" is coming right back. the world is so full of lemons. when you become an expedia member, you can instantly start saving on your travels. so you can go and see all those lemons, for less. your shipping manager left to “find themself.” leaving you lost. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates

matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire municipal bonds don't usually get the media coverage matching your job description. the stock market does. in fact, most people don't find them all that exciting. but, if you're looking for the potential for consistent income that's federally tax-free, now is an excellent time to consider municipal bonds from hennion & walsh. if you have at least 10,000 dollars to invest, call and talk with one of our bond specialists at 1-800-763-2763. we'll send you our exclusive bond guide, free. with details about how bonds can be an important part of your portfolio. hennion & walsh has specialized in fixed income and growth solutions for 30 years, and offers high-quality municipal bonds from across the country. they provide the potential for regular income...are federally tax-free... and have historically low risk. call today to request your free bond guide. 1-800-763-2763. that's 1-800-763-2763

- hello, friends. michael youssef here. you know, the right says that christ was conservative. the left says christ was radical, but christ is the creator, god in human flesh, and he's the only one who can give you peace, and he wants to give you that peace, eternal peace. will you come to him? - [woman] are you looking for peace that can withstand any hardship that life can bring? visit findingtruepeace.com to find answers. that's findingtruepeace.com.

what's it like having xfinity internet? it's beyond gig-speed fast. so gaming with your niece, has never felt more intense. hey what does this button do? no, don't! we're talking supersonic wi-fi. three times the bandwidth and the power to connect hundreds of devices at once. that's powerful. couldn't said it better myself. you just did. unbeatable internet from xfinity. made to do anything so you can do anything. whoa. xfinity mobile runs on america's most reliable 5g network, but for up to half the price of verizon, so you have more money for more stuff. this phone? fewer groceries. this phone? more groceries! this phone? fewer concert tickets.

this phone? more concert tickets. and not just for my shows. get $400 off an eligible samsung device with xfinity mobile. take the savings challenge at xfinitymobile.com/mysavings or visit your xfinity store and talk to our switch squad today. first psoriasis, then psoriatic arthritis. even walking was tough. i had to do something. i started cosentyx®. cosentyx can help you move, look, and feel better... by treating the multiple symptoms of psoriatic arthritis. don't use if you're allergic to cosentyx. before starting...get checked for tuberculosis. an increased risk of infections some serious... and the lowered ability to fight them may occur. tell your doctor about an infection or symptoms... or if you've had a vaccine or plan to. tell your doctor if your crohn's disease symptoms... develop or worsen. serious allergic reactions may occur. watch me. liz: home sharing titan airbnb gapping up to $157 at the open after reporting a year-over-year

revenue surge of 70%. all right, airbnb's bookings boomed past pre-pandemic levels with more than 102 million, million nights and experiences booked in the january to march quarter alone and airbnb says this is just the beginning, as it expects this summer to be even bigger than last year's resurgence. joining me now in studio live airbnb co-founder and ceo brian chesky. i've got to get to the fed news though first, because we're see ing mortgage rates jump. i think the average 30 year fixed is 5.5% right now, that's markedly higher than the 3% or so that it was in december. for a company that depends on buying homes and renting them out, have you modeled for how higher mortgage rates height affect you guys? >> i mean, we don't look at that level of granularity but i'll just say this. we launched airbnb august of 2008. it got going january-february 2009. you'll remember what was going on back then so economic disruptions are often moments

where people will change their behavior and new behavior change be okay, i can make extra money off of my house. i can have passive income, and so what we are seeing is a proliferation of hosts coming on to the platform, the hosts we already have are opening up more calendar dates and that tells me that people are looking even more eager before than to make extra money. liz: your average daily rates rose. >> significantly. liz: 5% year-over-year to 168 bucks on average? >> they have been rising and the main reason they are rising actually is a mix shift. this is really important. before the pandemic a lot of people used ash to get one or two bedroom places for themselves or a partner. now a lot of people are looking airbnb for their entire family getting four or five bedroom places, and we had a lot more businesses in asia before. that was a lower adr. it's now mixed over to u.s. and europe, just because people aren't crossing borders much in asia so this is why the mix shift is up. liz: but people are paying it. >> 100%. liz: some companies don't have pricing power. people are looking at their

budgets saying that i can't afford this is worth paying for. >> what does that say? to me what it says is travel is one of the most aspirational things in the world. if you ask people if you had all the money in the world what would you do, a lot of people would say i would travel. it's what the we do when we graduate, after we get married and when we retire and it's not all kinds of traveling. people have a yearning to re connect. they want to live in local communities and save money and i think airbnb offers them that. liz: i know during the pandemic, listen, you guys had a near- death experience obviously, but you had to cut a quarter of your workforce which was a tough decision that many ceo's would have trouble making, but you knew as a newer company, part of the biggest problem is is that growing companies like yours tend to not want to stop spending, but you guys had to. are you now ramping up hiring and if so what positions? >> yeah, i mean like i was always forewarned the hardest thing as a ceo you'll probably ever have to do is lay off and it was even harder than i imagined. it was very very difficult and

you have a lot of, you know that people you get really connected to them. at the same time, i will say that before the pandemic, in hindsight i think we were a little unfocused and there's nothing luckily never had a near death experience in my life but i heard it described to me and it's like you stare and your life flashes before your eyes. this case we had a business near death experience, our business flashed before our eyes and we said we need to get back to the roots and basics and focusing and taking our very best people and focus on everyday people sharing their homes and offering experiences and that was the beginning of a major turn around. so now, we are hiring, we're way back well-above 2019 levels. you're seeing a major mix shift towards airbnb. we're no longer just an alternative way to travel, for millions of people we're now the default. so yes, we are going to be hiring again, and i'll just give you one step. last thursday, we announced that all airbnb employees can live and work anywhere. we now have a very flexible policy.

you can live and work in 170 countries, all over the world. since we made that announcement our careers and jobs page was visited 800,000 times. a lot of people. liz: it's a modern way of looking at things and you're not cutting salaries if they move to less expensive states. >> yes. liz: so you expect a very hot summer season. >> oh, yeah, big time. liz: how do you make sure that you can scale up that high if say for example, there might be a recession? >> well, i mean, so a couple things to note. we have, you know, no night are we even close to fully occupied, and so we have a lot of room to grow. we have enough hosts for the summer but the other thing is we've developed really cool new features. we have a feature if you go on our homepage you'll see it, it's called "i'm flexible" and it basically means if you're flexible when traveling we can point demand to where we have supply. that is a way of increasing our utilization quite significantly so we think people are going to

travel everywhere. they aren't just going to cities , national parks, cross-borders. last summer was probably the biggest travel rebound since world war ii, and this year will be bigger than last year because in hindsight last year it was a little tentative, not everyone could cross every border and you had the delta strain, so we're really optimistic about this summer. liz: you're going to make an announcement in about seven days >> that's right. liz: you're sitting here just give it to us now. >> i know, i'm so tempted. i'll just say this. next wednesday, may 11, 9:00 a.m. eastern, we'll make the biggest announcement we've made in 10 years. liz: okay, can you come back and talk about it? >> absolutely i'd love to. liz: brian chesky of airbnb and the stock powering higher we thank you very much. >> thank you. liz: take a look at the dow up 955 points, so the fed mapped out its rate hike path and today 's countdown closers are here to tell us which route you should take, to portfolio profitability but the closing

bell ringing in nine and a half minutes, we do have quite the rally on our hands, dow stands above 34,000 once again, we're coming right back. or is it a feeling? a freedom, to live our lives the way we intended. through the ups. the downs. all of it. this is financial security. from long term care planning, to annuities and life insurance, lincoln helps you plan, protect, and retire. this is lincoln financial.

hi, i'm pat and i'm 75 years old. we live in the mountains so i like to walk. i'm really busy in my life; i'm always doing something. . . a brochure on prevagen.

i've been taking prevagen for about four years. i feel a little bit brighter and my mind just feels sharper. i would recommend it to anyone. it absolutely works. prevagen. healthier brain. better life. liz: yes, the market rally, six minutes until we hear the closing bell ring from trough to peak. the dow is up 1071 points. is that correct what i got? 1071 point swing, unbelievable. by the way, the dow has not closed up with 1000 points, we're not there yet, up 965. vane closed 1000 points you have to go back to april 6 of 2020. the swing on the blue chip index, i said, 1071. for the s&p 500, today is the biggest gain since may of 2020. we were in the height of lockdowns. maybe there was hope on that particular day. let's talk about the hope that

the bulls have at the moment. fox business's edward lawrence brought up the "r" word during the fed chairman's news conference. this was really important here because he was basically saying a pretty nice, you know, outlook here, that the economy was very strong. powell played down the possibility. here is how he put it. listen. >> it is a strong economy. nothing about it suggests that it is close to or vulnerable to a recession. now of course given events around the world and fading fiscal policy effects and higher rates you could see some slower economic activity. last year was extraordinarily strong growth year as we recovered from the pandemic as i mentioned, growth over 5%, but most forecasters had growth this year at a solid pace, above 2%. reporter: but we talked with economists who advised democrat and republican presidents who both said that the fed is so far

behind the curve on inflation that a recession is inevitable? >> so, as i said, any we have a, we have a good chance to restore price stability without, without a recession, without, a severe downturn and without materially higher unemployment. >> all right. joining me now to talk about this, monet chief investment officer ethan devet and todd rosen breath. ethan i will ask you, do you believe what the fed is doing right now, to be clear for people tuning in, he took 75 hikes off the table. 50, june and july, who knows what happens after that. do you believe the path will keep numbers like this on our screen moving higher for the stock market? i know economy and inflation are two separate things for the market? >> the fed indicated they are in control. markets responded so well. not only was that a positive

message out of chair powell, it restored confidence in the fed, we had expectation they were behind the curve. not only are they ahead of the curve, they're no control, know exactly what they're doing. this was well-telegraphed. markets responded accordingly. liz: it was just last friday, todd, the markets were tanking. we had the dow down more than 900 points. that doesn't go away in some collective investors minds. what is the path where you gauge you see the flows from investors what they're putting money in right now, where do you think they're going? >> we saw in april investors were rotating more risk-off environment. they were willing to focus on more defensive sectors, xlv, health care spdr etf. health care etfs. we're seeing more risk-on. we're seeing positive action in more growth or remember ended

etfs. we're ohio lighting on the screen, umv, broad market volatility from i-shares. dividend oriented etfs, shd, schwab dividend etf. we think investors can be part of the equity upside without taking on too much risk. liz: risk, i'm sure is something that always comes to mind at monetaa, iofin. you have 32 million in assets unmanagement. where are you looking for opportunity that give you yield but also protection to the downside if there is a downside coming due to recession? >> we've been in camp of downside inflation for the last year. that is a major downside to cash purchasing power. we've been putting in place inflationary resilience asset classes, real estate, real assets, that is a huge part of our asset allocation. we recommend diversification. we don't believe in definition of defensive stocks. equities always behave risk move

on portfolio. we like private credit now especially yields on private credit are very compelling. we like not only mark-to-market. they're contractual in flows. liz: if you listen to a whole bunch of pundits on the past two weeks, neil cavuto's show, charles payne's show, my show, some of them said you don't really know the end of the volatility is over until you quote see blood in the streets, very market selloff which we haven't according to those experts we've really seen. todd, knowing that, if you believe that is indeed the case beyond the xlv what are you looking at here? what are better etfs? >> we think investors again need to stay diversified focus on downside protection being part of the upside. we don't expect we'll see strong interest, longer term strong interest in technology or cyclical sectors like materials

or financials is an area to be able at that play xlf is financial select sector spdr. financials benefit in rising rate environment. [closing bell rings. those companies become more profitable. >> great to have you. there is the bell after the fed lifts the rates by the biggest amount, half a point since the year 2000. big rally at the end of this session. ♪. larry: hello, everyone, welcome to "kudlow." i'm larry kudlow. first up today we focus on inflation and today's big fed meeting. so, folks, let me begin. i knew paul volcker. i actually worked for paul volcker at the new york fed back in 1975 and i can tell you jay powell is no paul volcker. he may invoke the late volcker's name, try to hide behind it, but if you took a look at the fed's actions today, they were very