ashley: i'm with lauren 1.1 million. stuart: susan? >> i'll just counter the 870. stuart: i'm with 870 too roll it >> oh! stuart: 870,000, .6% of the workforce that's it. by the way, bob hagenbaugh, 101 years old today, happy birthday, there he is, as man is in for cavuto. david: by the way, i hate bicycles i know i'm going to get a million hate males for saying that but new york city is still with bicycles with all these electric motors and they are running people down, it's crazy. i don't like that. i don't like that. good to see you, my friend, have a wonderful weekend i appreciate it. welcome to cavuto "coast to coast" i'm sorry, i'm david asman in for neil. well it was the year 1932, we're not talking about the year, stuary varney was born, oh, that's not kind. that's the last time the dow had an eight-week losing streak and

we are going to do that, it looks like it again, at the end of the day unless there's an amazing turnaround as for the s&p one more big sell-off, and it could be entering a bear market. we're also hitting more records but not the good kind. gas prices reaching new highs again today, but the administration won't say that the price at the pump is too high. wow. and now, we are hearing that china maybe dipping into where oil reserves, the one you bought and paid for , we have a big lineup today to break it all down including a live interview with st. louis federal reserve president james bullard on how this week will impact the fed and the economy. all that's coming up, but first, the recession trade is on, folks we start on these markets with our all-star panel today jackie jackie deangelis and kaltbaum capital management and fox news contributor gary kaltbaum. jackie is getting late breaking news. jackie let me start with you though. there are some key levels again

we saw green on the screen until about an hour ago, that turned around, it's like investors are trying to pushback with all the power they have, but it's a wave that's washing over the buyers. >> yeah, and i think the wave to the downside is stronger than the momentum that we saw this morning to the upside. the sentiment out there just happens to be negative. we were talking during the break about some key levels when it comes to the s&p, with respect to support. we just broke through one right now, we're at 38.65 the first support was 38.69. second support is 31 points lower probably not going to happened to but it's something to keep an eye on here, these are the algorithms and sort of the support levels that the computers use when trading is happening electronically so it's something to think about when the momentum pushes to the downside, but overall, i just think this is really about the consumer pulling back a little bit, what we've heard from companies this week, this is about concerns about interest rates going higher and david, the point that i've been making, the problem is powell can do whatever he wants with

interest rates and keep raising raising raising a half a point at a time. the problem we have with food and gas prices are supply side problems and those are not ones that he necessarily can fix. we still all have to eat and drive to work so at a certain point there isn't tremendous demand destruction in those areas, and that's what i'm focused on. david: gary i'm so happy you're here in person, which is great enough. >> at my son's wedding this weekend, so a pleasure to be here. david: let's get to the markets because you see the downturn it looked like we're going to maybe have a positive day, but again, the market is just against it. venture capitalist david sax, a smart guy involved in facebook and bringing a lot of new companies online, i think some of his efforts went towards twitter, but he said yesterday on maria's show that the highs of last year were artificial. they were based on free money, so-called, from the government which turned into horrible inflation, which americans are dealing with, and the easy money , which we've seen not just

since the pandemic began, but since 2009 and ben bernanke and his shenanigans. with regoing to ease away 13 years of that easing money? >> just remember what you're seeing right now, they don't want to do. they have to do it, they're forced to do it. they've created this monster of leverage, debt, easy money, and now you're getting the other side of what i call the eiffel tower and you know, david i've been talking about this for quite a while. i mean, the amount of money they printed, i have been using the words unimaginable, and you just, the distortions they made, junk bond yields, things that should be yielding 10% were yielding 5%. austria came out with a bond 100 -year bond at eight-tenths of 1% now down 40%, and in principle you've got to live 100 years to get your money back,

just in sane distortions and here is the unfortunate part. the people that have brought it to us are still running the show david: yeah that's the problem. so i think you answered my question, which is do they have the backbone to stand up to inflation like we see , and half point raises aren't going to do it. >> let me put it best. we have inflation somewhere in 8 % to 11%, fed funds rate is at a whopping three-quarters a percent, paul volcker right now is turning over in his grave. we need somebody that's going to do something about it. david: okay jackie, meanwhile, americans are facing recession. i mean, if we don't get one, it'll be somewhat short of a miracle, because it seems to many people like we're already in one. there is this one note that we saw on twitter, i'm laughing, but it's pathetic. it says that at a gas station i visited this morning two pumps had only $20 spent, people are filling up $20 at a time now, something i only used to see in greece.

i mean, it's not exactly a third world country but we're facing third world problems here. you can only pay $20 to get you a couple of gallons maybe three gallons if you're lucky, perhaps not much longer will it get you anymore than two gallons and the baby shortage formula. americans are facing not just a recession, not just high inflation, but both together at the same time. >> at the same time and it's really hard and when it's basically telling you what people are doing taking 20 bucks out of their pocket just to fill up to get from point a to b, and they worry about how they get from b to c later that's what the they have in their pocket and using it and you're right it does feel like we live in a third world country and then jennifer granholm continuing to say this is all about putin. let me give you stats here. we invaded sorry russia invaded ukraine on february 24 so the build up of prices was during february was pretty steep so let's take the price at january 31. the average price was $3.36. when biden came into office, it

was, the average price was $2.38 we're talking about a 41% increase in gas prices, before the russia situation even started to move the market. so when she says that, she is lying. david: but that's part of the problem, gary. we have people who are not just not experts, but they are doing exactly the wrong thing. i mean granholm is not an expert in energy she didn't know how much energy was produced or consumed in the united states. you have buttigieg ahead of transportation, he was a failed local politician who doesn't know much about transportation at all. the experts are not in charge. these are not experts these are people who are giving exactly the wrong medicine at times. >> let me put it best for six months, we were told don't worry about inflation and it was transitory, and then inflation hits and gas prices go up, and markets react to it and what do we get as a solution to all of this? you get schumer and biden and

the rest coming out and saying to lower inflation, we need to raise taxes on the economy. coming out of a pandemic and let me explain how markets work. david: quickly. >> big money crowd meets in the morning, deciding on what they are going t do and when they hear that, they have one word in their mind. >> sell. >> that's what's going on right now and it's persistents and the intangible the word confidence is being lost in here david: jackie very quickly we do have a cushion coming out of the pandemic. we have 11.5 million unfilled jobs that could cushion the blow a little bit if we go into a recession, and then we also have a strong housing market. we have well, but we have this shortage of supply on hand, so and it's beginning to replenish, just as we're coming into a recession possibly, so a lot of people are saying we may, if we are in a recession now, it may not be that long-lasting because of these cushions. >> i'll give you counter- arguments to both of your cushions on 11.5 million

jobs sure they are out there but people don't want them because wages aren't rising as fast as inflation, we saw a record number of people quit their jobs in march because they aren't feeling they are being paid enough it's not worth it and on the housing market with rates rising you are going to see a slow down in the market people can't get into the market with interest rates over 5%. david: if you can do it in 20 seconds go. >> housing is going to top it's as simple as that and that's going to be more of the reverse wealth effect going forward. david: don't you think it has topped? >> yeah, inventory is already picking up nobody is bidding higher than the next guy anymore david: i'm just looking for some light in the clouds here. it's friday. i want to give people a good weekend. >> i look everyday for something good to talk about i just don't have it just yet. david: gang, thank you very much, good to see you both. well now to the president's asia trip, where he is largely focused on countering the threat from beijing. well guess what? beijing did while he's there, they launched drills in the south china sea. fox news white house correspondent peter doocy is live in soul, south korea with

more on the presidents trip. hi, peter. reporter: and david, good morning good saturday morning. china is launching these military drills in the south china sea shortly after biden officials told us a big point of this trip is to show china that if they ever invade taiwan, then the world is going to treat them the way that russia is being treated right now, after they invaded ukraine. does not seem like beijing is getting the message at least not yet. there's also a major economic component to this trip, especially concerning semiconductors which is the reason that the president went to samsung today. >> these little chips, only a few nanometers thick, are the key to propelling us into the next era of humanities technological development. artificial intelligence, quantum technologies, 5g and so very much more, things we haven't even thought of at this point. reporter: something officials have thought of, and have been

watching very carefully for days , the possibility that north korea could conduct a nuclear test or a missile test or both while the president is in the region, the national security advisor jake sullivan talked about that on the air force one ride in. >> the first we've been forthcoming in downgrading and policing our intelligence and our analysis that there is a genuine possibility, a real risk of some kind of provocation, while we're in the region whether it's south korea or in japan, that could take the form of a nuclear test. reporter: the president is down for the night, because he stays on local time on trips like this he does have a press conference in about 14 hours, that'll be overnight east coast time, and it comes as his approval rating falls to a new low in an ap poll, down at just 39%. david? david: peter i know you like me but you must like me a lot to

stay awake until 1:11 in the morning after that long trip overseas. thank you very much for that. good to see you my friend, safe travels. reporter: anywhere in the world, anytime for david asman. you got it. david: thank you very much peter. let's get to china expert and the great u.s. china tech war author, gordon chang. first of all, these drills in the south china sea, is china just testing us or are they actually preparing for an invasion of taiwan? >> well, both. and clearly, this is getting ominous, because the wall street journal yesterday reported that china is trying to sanction- proof its senior officials. now, they wouldn't do that unless they were thinking they were going to do something which we would impose sanctions on them, like invading taiwan or some other nation, so the chinese military is always constantly trying to improve itself, to get itself more ready , and clearly, they're thinking about invading somebody david: now they don't have an endless supply of money particularly after these latest lockdowns that they had in

shanghai and beijing and elsewhere in the country which really slowed the economy down. hasn't it? they're in a very tough situation, of course we can never trust their figures, the figures that come out of the government because they are all cooked, but are they having economic troubles right now? >> april they had year to year contraction, maybe march as well this economy in china is going downhill very fast. you know, we see , for instance retail sales down 11.1% year-on-year in april and that's a lot, but when you start looking at the property numbers that are down 29%, down 31% on sales and also on new construction starts, this is the heart of the chinese economy it accounts for somewhere between 25 and 30% of gdp. 70% of chinese wealth are invest ed in apartment units. this is something china can't deal with because they have a debt crisis. david: they are still pulling strings in north korea by the way. we just heard there are suspicions there maybe another nuclear test for north korea or

some other provocation from them spurred on by china, right? >> absolutely because biden is trying to present his trip as sort of rallying the region against china. well what is china doing? it's saying let's change the nature of the conversation by having north korea doing something provocative either a missile launch or a nuke detonation, so basically we're going to talk about north korea and china goes sort of scott- free while biden is in south korea and japan. david: another group that's scott-free are the corporate quizlings, i'd call them, from the united states, that are going back to providing cover for china, and i'm thinking in particular, the nba. the nba is going back, the basketball association is going back. what's the latest on that? >> well their playoffs are being aired in china for the first time and we're seeing, thr three years in china. the nba owners, a lot of the value of their franchises relates to their business in china, and also, they've got investments in china, and espn

has done this enormous investigation of it and it really shows you how china is able to own a critical sports in the united states, and this is going to be, it's sector-by- sector as well because we've had all of these reports, david, about how china is so important to defense contractors or the consulting industry. this is really serious. david: thank god for enis freedom, his voice speaks loudly, finally i'm hitting all the sensitive areas here. the vatican and i'm a catholic so i love the vatican, but the fact is is the vatican continues to play footsies with the communist party of china, even as cardinal zen, in hong kong, was arrested recently. now he's been let out, maybe some of that has to do with the vatican but the vatican allows the communist chinese party to help them pick bishops for goodness sakes in china, so even an institution like the vatican is playing footsies

with the communist party. >> the vatican has a 2018 agreement with china which is extended and it's going to come up for extension in october and clearly only to the benefit of the communist party not to the benefit of religion or the catholic church and then you have as you say cardinal zen was detained in hong kong under the national security law. david: he's 90 years old by the way the sign of a real bully going after a 90-year-old. >> and clearly, you have the vatican issue statements which were at best really disappointing. david: and jimmy lai what's the very latest on jimmy lai? he's been in jail now for over a year, right? >> right. and he's been hit with another charge under the national security law. he's going to be in jail for the rest of his life unless the united states can spring him free. david: all right, stay with us for a second, gordon. i just want to focus your attention to the red on the screen. again, we started the day with green on the screen, as you can see now, the dow jones is at 354

points to the negative. the nasdaq is down as well, s&p is very close to bear territory, but hasn't hit it already. have we hit bear territory yet? not quite, but we are very close to that level, 3,849 on the s&p that's a loss of about one and one-third percent and the nasdaq is close to a 2% loss. we are seeing losses on all of the areas of the stocks that have been hit hard particularly the nasdaq as usual, we're getting close to that 10,000 level. i'm just wondering, gordon, as the economy seems to be slip ping into a recession, and we're going into bear territory for a lot of our indexes here, do you think that china can take advantage of this moment for the united states or are they in enough economic trouble themselves so they're worried about their own future because their economic future is very much intertwined with ours. >> yeah, beijing is hysterically worried and the reason is fed raising rates.

that's causing outflows of capital and 7% drop in the mmb, so their number one problem, or at least their potential number one problem, all the time, is capital outflow. they've been able to manage it for the last three or four years but now they are starting to lose control of that, again, as more and more money -- david: that is to say, to put it in plain language, chinese people that have cash are getting, they're exchanging it for dollar and trying to move it out of the country. they've tried to hold that back but holding back capital flows is almost an impossible task for a government. >> yes, and even though china has strict capital controls, and in effect has controls on the current account, although they're not formal but they are informally enforced, the problem here is that all this money is coming out of china, because of the difference in rates. you know, why wouldn't you invest in u.s. debt when it pays so much more than china, which is a much greater risk.

david: we often bang on the fed for not doing enough but they're doing a lot more than what a lot of countries are doing around the world and that's why the dollar is strengthening as a result and that's why the chinese currency is getting weaker and that's why the flows are coming into the u.s. dollar. >> and it's not only the chinese currency getting weaker. it's dropping uncontrollably at times, and that means that the chinese central bank is los ing the ability to manage the situation, and that's why you're having so much pessimism. as much as reason for pessimism in the u.s. and i can understand it, the problem in china is so much worse. they don't have control over it. they don't have an independent monetary policy. they're tied to the u.s. dollar, and whatever the fed does for u.s. purposes, it really hurts china, and china can't do anything about it. david: but china's now seeing president of the united states in their territory, in asia right now. they must look at his numbers, his poll numbers, and be happy to see because they're happy

when u.s. leadership is down. i want to stand behind our leaders when they're in enemy territory and i would call that enemy territory right now, at least adversary territory, how much are they putting their hopes on biden making more mistakes? >> i think that that's really their primary strategy right now , unfortunately, because they saw the chaos in the withdrawal from afghanistan, they saw the failure to deter russia on ukraine, and they're probably thinking there be a failure to deter china should it go after one of its neighbors like taiwan , and as well, they saw, yes they saw the sanctions on russia, but they saw that those sanctions were not complete, and the chinese actually believe that no one would dare to impose sanctions on the chinese, because the chinese believe, well, we're so powerful, we're so important, and we're chinese so you can't touch us. that's wrong. i think that they miss perceived the situation but the point is not whether they're right or wrong in assessing the situation. what's important is their mentality. david: are they going to be at

all successful at getting rid of the trump sanctions? they want to get rid of it, biden has leaned in that direction, still not sure how it will all end up, what do you think? >> i think that, and i don't know, but i'm being very pessimistic and i'm thinking that the biden administration will indeed take those tariffs off. david: gordon thank you very much for being here appreciate it. i want to bring in washington times opinion editor and fox news contributor editor charlie hurt for more on what's happening with the markets, our country, et cetera. charlie, again, you know, you and i have been quite critical of president biden and his economic policies and his foreign policies but when you see him in adversarial territory like he is right now and you know the chinese are rooting against him, i don't want to root against somebody who is representing the united states in enemy territory, do you? >> no, and in fact, every time i see the president go abroad, you say a prayer, because of

course, you always want the american president to be successful, especially overseas, but we have not been filled with a whole lot of confidence by his behavior anywhere on the world stage, and in fact, i think so much of what he has done has actually undermined the united states both economically, militarily, and quite frankly morally on the world stage. obviously, it's really interesting to hear this discussion that you all are having right here, and the fact remains that places like china, just like russia, they have massive , huge internal problems of their own that we don't, you know, that are not exactly related to our actions on the global stage, but they are real problems, and all the more wish that our government leaders would sort of take into account those weaknesses that they have and figure out how to represent

our interests better, to make america more effective on the world stage, and stronger in the world. a strong america is good for freedom everywhere. david: it is indeed. now it's not just our policy leaders. it's also our corporate leaders charlie that are part of the problem here. you and i have talked you have a keen interest in the corporate woke culture, which has made so many mistakes. the last one, by the way, or the most egregious recently is criticizing elon musk taking him off of this woke index, this s&p index, even though he has the greenest p can in the whole world, it makes more efficient electric cars than any company in the world, and yet, they were taken off of this woke index while exxon and other oil companies are still on it because they pay their tribute to the woke community. as we go into a recession, a lot of people think that's where we're going, and you look at the markets today, and you realize that we can't hold on to the slightest gains at this point, do you think that

that woke corporate culture maybe wiped clean in order to get back to a more efficient way of running businesses? >> well, you know, david, i think that one of the biggest stories going on right now is the incredible erosion of credibility. everything from the media to these corporations, they are losing credibility across-the-board in ways that i think a year ago, you and i, because we follow all of this. we followed politics every everyday, we follow the media, you and i and we talk all the time, online and offline, about how corrupt or how dishonest the media is and a lot of these companies are in terms of the way they view stories, the way they try to politicize everything, especially regarding race, which is to me, the most disgusting thing you could possibly do, but so the credibility is already sort of lost among people like us. what's really happening right

now is the degree to which these very same people are losing credibility, not among people like you and me who spend all of our time looking at this stuff but among regular people and i think that's a big reason why you're seeing this drawback especially after the george floyd stuff, and some of this other stuff, where like for example, with the roe vs. wade decision that leaked outlast month, you're seeing a lot of these corporations saying hey, man, we've touched that hot stove so many times we're not going to get burned again and it's because they're beginning to realize that they have lost so much credibility in the eyes of consumers, investors, and god bless them. i'm so glad that consumers and investors are realizing that you cannot trust these people. david: well they're wrong. charlie, the bottom line is they get it wrong, when the mlb pulled out of the all-star game because of the georgia voting law, i don't know if we have this quote, but the mlb commissioner rob man

fred said "major league baseball fundamentally supports voting rights for all americans and opposes restrictions to the ballot box." well, in fact, the new voting law in georgia was partly responsible for tripling of the number of voters who went out to the polls in the mid-term primaries. tripling the numbers that we saw in 2018, so they got it exactly wrong, and that's just a side issue. that doesn't deal directly with economic policy, but there is a great waking up going on about the woke culture that i think maybe as hard as it is to take when you see numbers going south the way they are today, it may, in the long run, be a good thing >> yeah, well, i mean, one way of i think of looking at this stuff is that what we're seeing, all the red that you see splashed across your screen is kind of the bursting of this esg bubble, this idea that the masters of wall street are going to sort of funnel all this money into companies that they declare are somehow

virtuous and more than others, and you know, we talk a lot about disinformation and i believe that people are responsible for what they say, and if you're constantly lying, whether it's about, you know, president trump's involvement with russia or whatever crazy thing the new york times. david: or about inflation. >> yeah, or about any of these things, and going back to the voting in georgia. you had a situation where you had republican lawmakers who passed laws to protect the integrity of voting for african americans voters in georgia, as well as all voters irrespective of race, as exactly the way laws are supposed to be done, and they were accused by mlb, delta, coca cola all major companies for being racist david: yeah. >> and we're now as the dust settles we realize, it was allies, intended to weaponize, not only the truth, but also

racism in order to advance some crazy political agenda. david: well i think all of us as you said, it's not just you and i, because we knew there were lies back a year ago but now everybody sees that they're lies because its played out in terms of what's happened at the polls. charlie i wish we could talk all day but we have to move on, the great charlie hurt, ladies and gentlemen. well another day, another record for gas prices, but the interior secretary refusing to admit that those prices are too high. fox business' grady trimble is in chicago to explain. it's extraordinary grady. reporter: david, yes, the interior secretary was on the hill yesterday and at a hear ing senator john barrasso asked her multiple times point blank, do you think gas prices are too high right now and she didn't answer. take a look. >> do you believe that gas prices are too high? >> americans are still recovering from this terrible pandemic and there are a lot of other world events that are

making things difficult for all of us. >> so it sounds you're unwilling to say that gas prices are too high. >> we're doing all we can, senator. reporter: secretary haaland did tell the senate committee the interior department will release a new five-year plan for offshore drilling by the end of june, but there will likely be a gap between the current plan and that new plan, which would cause a blackout period for those oil & gas companies, after dodging questions about gas prices, secretary haaland also dodged questions about whether the plan would include any new lease sales for new offshore drilling. >> can you commit to doing the leasing? i know you're going to do the plan. is your intent to lease? >> our intent is to follow the law. we know that this five-year plan is in the works right now. i couldn't tell you if i tried what is in it. reporter: republican senators also pressed her on oil & gas

production on federal lands. president biden's current plan makes fewer acres available for drilling than initially proposed, and it increases royalties oil & gas companies have to pay, so these exchanges, david, sort of sum up for you why republicans just don't buy it when the biden administration says they're doing everything they can right now, to lower prices at the pump. david? david: well and also, that explains why consumers are furious. they see so much going wrong with that attitude. grady, thank you very much. well, another thing a lot of folks are furious about is the u.s. oil is on sale to the whole world when not enough is being sold here. nothing new about that, by the way, selling to the rest of the world but our next guest says some of the oil, president biden has been selling out of our strategic petroleum reserves , that is oil paid for by you, the taxpayers, and meant for emergencies here at home, is now being sold to, wait for it, china. price futures group senior

analyst phil flynn joins me now. well, phil, we've been talking all week about how that strategic oil reserves should not be sold outside of the united states anyway. it's not bringing prices down. that's for damn sure. >> right. david: the government is making a lot of money out of it but this is our money, we paid for the stuff to begin with, but now we find out that the oil from those reserves maybe going to china, is that true? >> that is absolutely true, dave, and we saw a lot of evidence of this over the last couple of months, in fact, in november it was very clear that after president biden released oil from our reserve, china booked the most amount of oil tankers, headed towards china, from the united states, since before the covid situation had actually unfolded, so we know that a big amount of that oil was headed directly to china, and even though china paid lip service to releasing oil from their reserve, along with the

u.s. they ended up mining it back from russia, at a lower price, so it was this great trade for china and president biden has an uncanny ability to sell the market high and he's going to have to replace that oil at a much-higher price in the future. david: unbelievable and you know, i could understand europe is in a emergency situation right now, perhaps selling our reserves to europe does make some sense, because they're in such a bind, because of what's happening with russia, but to china, and as you mentioned, china is buying russian oil. i mean, it's not only against our interest in terms of the price of oil, what's happening, what's happening here at home, but it's against our stated goals for foreign policy as well. >> absolutely and they signaled they were going to be buying more. they're in the process of cutting a deal to buy russian oil, because russian oil's cheap , a lot of other people won't buy it, but they will, and the biden administration came out and said well, you know,

there's no sanctions against that, so go ahead, china, buy as much as you want. you know, and the funny thing is , you talk about the biden administration releasing oil from the reserve to help europe. okay, you might be able to make a small case for that, even though i don't think that's right, but at the end of the day , the biden administration started playing with the strategic petroleum reserve long before that war. they started to release oil from the reserve last november and remember, they said it was to get down gasoline prices? david: how did that work out? >> yeah, i'm not -- not too well, anybody that filled up at the tank knows that was a failure, and is the way that they view the strategic petroleum reserve, david. it's kind of like bringing out your baseball fan, it's like bringing out your closer in the second inning. david: now i get it, yes. >> what are you going to do next? david: let me just ask, who is responsible for making these decisions? these horrible decisions? they aren't bringing the price

of oil down, they're helping our enemies, plus the oil itself is meant for emergencies here at home. i mean, jennifer granholm, our energy secretary, doesn't have a deep background in energy at all she didn't know how much oil we were consuming or producing she couldn't answer that simple question to congress. i mean, is she making these horrible decisions or is it somebody else or is there a collective or what? >> you know, i think there's a collective. i don't think she's making any decisions. she laughed when she was asked what the u.s. could do to raise oil production. that's her job, and to know what they could do, right? i think if you look at the decision, i'm afraid that the administration's decisions when it comes to oil production is really being made by the green energy lobby, right? that's where they're throwing all our tax dollars and our revenue to the green energy

space, and against all u.s. interests when it comes to u.s. oil & gas. if you're a green energy company , times are good but if you're u.s. oil & gas, you know, you're being accused of gouging the public, accused of everything else in the world so they definitely have other interests. david: if we can't find a specific, you've got to put it on granholm and biden and certainly the putin price hike doesn't work at all. these are specific policy decisions that are being made about our strategic reserves and a lot of other things that are affecting the terrible situation , that we are finding ourselves in right now. phil flynn great to see you my friend thank you for bringing this to our attention i appreciate it. we continue to watch the s&p off its lows but came very close to bear market territory, stay with us, we're on it, we'll be right back.

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makes every day... a "let's dig in" day... >> mm. >> ...a "chow down" day... a "take a big bite" day... a "perfectly delicious" day... david: well it may not last long but ladies and gentlemen we are in a bear market right now. the s&p 500 look at that, the middle line there, 3,836.86 at 3,837.25, it went into bear market territory. that's 20% off of the highs, and again, it's a volatile market. we started in the green, right now, it's up again above that line, so it's really flirting with that bear market line, but let's bring back gary kaltbaum and jackie deangelis to tell us more about all of this. now, at that 3,837, gary, do

these automatic trades kick in? is it that kind of a technical move that we'll see in the market? >> i don't think so. david: no? >> pretty much as a technician, most of the support levels have been taken out, and just keep in mind, these are just simply institutions making decisions that they own too much and let me just state for the record that you look at the s&p 20% the average stock is so much worse. you got to remember in the s&p, you have oil that held up because oil prices, you have the staples which by the way finally got hit here recently, doing better than most. it's a bear market before today overall. i just know the definition is 20 %, and it's going to worsen from here unfortunately. david: now you know, i'll get to you in a second, jackie but i want to stick with an investor here. i think of the warren buffetts of the world who are not happy when markets go down like this , because they make more money when the markets green, but they look at opportunities, tremendous opportunities. are you doing that right now? are you thinking that good,

everybody thinks that it's the end of the world and that's the time to buy in? >> there are companies i love i won't buy them right now, because when i think about buying them they are five bucks lower the next day that's what bear markets do so my job, i call the top very well, got out of the way, i'm just, i'll just keep my feet up and wait until the signs of a bottom and basically people say you can't see that, but you really can. stocks stop going down, simple as that and then they start building some stare steps up, and we just haven't seen it yet. david: jackie what we did see this week was the demise, i shouldn't say demise but the tremendous drop of certain staple companies like walmart, like leon ponetta lowe's, target , 25% drops in one day and these are the safety stocks, these were the retail safety stocks, not the high flying, high-tech stocks of silicon valley. that, i think, was a signal to the market. >> oh, absolutely because when it's target and kohl's and walmart that's telling you that they have problems they aren't

selling items that consumers don't need. they are selling the essentials, and i shop at target so i use this as an example. david: me too. >> i've seen prices go up i've noticed the grocery items these kinds of things but how much higher can they make a bag of coffee, right? they get to a certain resistance point and what we know from producer prices going up at 11% is their costs keep going up, and so how much of that can you keep passing off to the consumer , they might have sort of hit a wall, and that's why their earnings took a hit because they are eating that, and that's the problem. higher gas prices, higher diesel prices, higher labor costs. they are, and they are input costs they are dealing with. david: the fancy term is demand destruction but that simply means that prices get so high that people walk in thinking they are going to buy it and reach into their pocket and realize they can't. >> but their sales were high because again these were essentials, this is coffee and breakfast cereal, the basic stuff that people need to eat and survive, and that's why i bring up that point that from the supply side, there's a certain amount of demand destruction when it comes to

luxury items, or driving on a vacation, but a certain amount, driving to work and putting basic food on the table, everyone has to do it. >> first off let me do state that no stocks are safe. always watch everything you do, but here is what happens from target. we are now getting serious markdowns of earnings going forward by the analyst community that was a big number, and when you see the same day in sympathy costco dropped $50 and across-the-board, you're seeing earnings guidance which matters a heck of a lot and that's why you're seeing continued pain in the market. the market is repricing a lower earnings going forward, a lower valuation going forward, and one plus one equals two. david: and by the way walmart has not recovered at all. it continues to go down. it's now down to $118 a share. >> they do 600 billion in revenues and it's down 20% in three days, target does 100 billion in revenues, stock dropped 25% in one day.

i'm not so sure you need any other evidence of what the problems are right now and where the market is headed. david: jackie one thing that you need to do is an average american when you're faced with inflation like this , is you have to prioritize. >> yeah. david: and some thing, you were talking about how people walk in , they can't even afford milk but if it's a choice between milk and a dinner out, you choose the milk for your family so i'm wondering, those things that you can live without, like restaurants, for example, are they really going to take a hit now? >> i think that's probably the next thing to come, right? so people start to sure up the budget and there's less budget for discretionary things like going out, going on vacation, the new flat screen tv to upgrade in the home, we do know that some of the home improvements are slowing down from the pandemic time when everybody was stuck inside so that's how people start to prioritize things when that happens, the consumer represents two-thirds of the u.s. economy and economic spending and

activity, so when the consumer pulls back starts to delay purchases, or not make those purchases at all, then it's going to ripple -- david: or trickle down. >> ripple down to other companies. >> let me give you a real-world statement. i was driven from my hotel here, the driver said i don't know what the word discretionary is anymore. if that doesn't speak volumes i don't know what is. now there's going to be decisions to be made on everything from the average family going forward, and when there's more decisions to make, that means less buying, less buying means less sales, less sales means less profits, less profits means lower markets, and you're seeing it. david: jackie as much as we care about the consumer, because we are all consumers and we're stuck with inflation, it's like we're slaves to inflation, we can't runaway from it, i think it's a horrible situation a lot of restaurants and other small business people, small retailers has gone through covid, gone through the crime situation, gone through this rising

regulatory environment that the biden administration has thrust upon us, think ev been through hell and now to go through a situation like this , where they finally, this could be the final nail in their coffin. >> we saw the light at the end of the tunnel right and for those who survived they were so excited that they made it through what seemed like a never -ending kind of marathon situation, and that's why it is so sad, and in some senses, you know, i talk to business owners all the time that say that the administration put us in this horrible situation, it's almost like in a way, an abuse of power if you will to allow this to spiral out of control. >> the press secretary yesterday said we don't watch the stock market. they better start watching the market, because now the wealth effect in reverse on top of inflation, you can't have a worse one-two punch than what you're seeing right now and they're just sitting there, you know, we're okay. david: well the small, small businesses in the united states are certainly not okay. they need all the help they can get. they don't need higher taxes and

more regulations they need all of the stimulus and i'm not talking about government spending. i'm talking about incentives to grow their businesses. >> what a concept, ha? incentives to grow. david: very simple by the way s&p now is again in that bear market territory, 3,824. it's about 10 below bear market activity right now, but again, that's a 20% drop from the highs it's a very tough day, began in the green, took a turn to the negative, when investors saw that things weren't really changing on the global front in terms of what's happening to our economies coming up florida's lt. governor on hispanics that are running away from biden and these markets maybe one reason why, that's next. dad, we got this. we got this.

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in bear market territory for the s&p right now. it's a horrible day on the markets. its been horrible for quite a while, and you know, there are a lot of reasons why the rating of biden among hispanics has fallen so deeply but i would put the economy as number one, wouldn't you? >> yeah, absolutely. i'm surprised it's not a zero given the fact that we are suffering as a direct result of biden inflation, the prices at the pump are higher than ever, parents are having difficulty finding baby formula, i mean, it is really a sad state of affairs when you see what's going on in our economy here in florida under the leadership of governor desantis, we've been fighting to allow people to prosper, to allow their businesses to be open, to make sure that people can have opportunities, and so when you have to juxtapose that against what biden is doing, it is indeed a challenging time for everyone and i think that's why you see those poll numbers are dropping so precipitously. david: now your state, florida,

is one of the gateways to latin america. there are a couple of gateways we have in the united states along the border but miami in particular and all of florida now has become a major gateway. you see a lot of hispanics who come to the united states, seeking a better life, seeking the american dream. when they're faced with the same kind of over-government regulation and government involvement in the economy that they saw in the countries that they escape from, they must wonder whether they made the right decision coming here. >> well, i certainly think that hispanic that come here legally and they love the united states, they were welcomed with open arms, and they've been able to raise their family like my parents did, but what you see under the leadership of governor ron desantis is something that i think most floridians are so thankful that we live in the free state of florida. when you see that biden and the disastrous policies he's making across-the-board, they are out of touch, they believe that hispanics only care about

one issue and that is the disastrous policies they have at the border, and i can tell you that they are so far removed from what hispanics here in particular in florida care about which is the economy, they care about freedom, they care about faith, they care about their family, and that is something that i think shows, just how out of touch democrats are, and why the results in november are going to be so disastrous for them. david: well you know, you bring up a wonderful point, which is one thing that makes me very hopeful, always makes me hopeful about the future of the united states, is that we're mower than a democracy. we're a federal republic. we have states that make individual decisions based on what the people want, is that direct representation based on how states are different, and your state has zero income tax, your state has far fewer regulations, we certainly saw that during the pandemic than states like new york or california or illinois and that's why people are coming to your state right now. i understand there's also a new law, it may seem removed from

this but it does play upon what you've been talking about, what people want. we see the law breaking that's going out on outside of the homes of the justices of the supreme court based on the decision that's about to be made on abortion. governor desantis has just, i believe, he signed the new law that prevents protests in front of people's homes can you explain that? >> yes, our administration has always been about law and order and we want to make sure that we protect floridians, and so what we signed recently, that bill, will protect the privacy of individual's homes. we strongly believe that what the left has evolved into is an angry, violent mob and we want no part of that here in florida, so people can absolutely use their first amendment rights and protest peacefully in the appropriate setting, but we do believe that individual's homes are their castle and they should be able to have that privacy and their

neighbors as well, and so we're proud that we were able to sign that law. we're proud to be able to stand on the side of law and order and not see what we seen in so many other democrat-run cities and states, the angry, violent mob what they resort to that's their tactic, anytime they don't like a decision or a law and so we're not going to allow that to occur in florida. david: the demise of law and order is one of the main causes of the dissolution of economies and whole political systems in latin america and i saw when i was covering the region time and again, the attempts to undermine the supreme courts of these countries like venezuela, led to the dissolution of the society as a whole. we can't allow that to happen here, lt. governor. >> governor: none jeanette nunez, thank you so much for being here appreciate it. coming up, more on the markets straight ahead, stay tuned. trad,

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7 or 8 weeks on pace to close at its lowest since november 2020. a string of records for gas prices but the biden administration is blaming ukraine. former venezuelan ambassador to the uk, vanessa newman, joining us in a moment. fox business talking to federal reserve president james bullard how the central bank is looking to avoid a recession. a lot to get to this our. let's get the reed on the market from mayflower advisors manager larry blaser. i wish we had better news and there is susan lee, good to see you both. susan, let me go to you first. ladies first. we have so much to talk about but the fact the s&p is in bear territory, if it is below 3837

i think we are in bear market territory. i think the sign for the negativity, increasing negativity in the markets is what happened with walmart, target, lowe's, mainstay companies that -- we realize nothing is recession proof but they got hit hard this week and that started the extra downturn. >> many are calling this a rally in a bear market meaning we won't see the bottom until we see panic and rush for the exit. if you look at the volatility index it has been pretty orderly so people are not panicking, not selling like 1987, their worst day since black monday 1987 this week. this morning i was surprised when i woke up and saw stock futures up on a friday especially heading into the weekend where investors sell out, don't want to hold that type of risk when they can't

sell when markets are closed. there was immediate reaction starting in positive territory, the fact that china was willing to open up the spigot cutting back interest rates surprisingly and still have a lot of dry powder and they could spread like they did in 2,008 when they had $200 billion to backstop their economy and money travels across borders. dave: when you saw what happened with walmart, lowe's and target you realize there is demand destruction going on, prices have gone so high that even for stable items that people need, the grocery materials you are buying with toilet paper etc. very basic things now the blood putting on hold until they have enough change in their pocket, right now they walk in and walk out without buying anything. >> nobody needs another debbie

downer on a friday afternoon. the elephant in the room is markets down two weeks in a row, 40 are high on inflation, gas prices so high people don't notice it because they are worried about food prices and the big change this week was target, walmart. it is the consumer and the consumer has been the bright spot, the saving grace of this economy, they held up so well but buckling under high gas prices and high food prices, they can't take anymore so the good news, the cure for high prices is high prices, not more washington intervention and at some point the free market starts to impact it people will stop spending. there are trenching on goods and services, that's going to cool the economy and do the fed's a job for them, the job they can't do and at the end of the day that is positive. investors are getting frozen, they are getting stuck, we need to get unstuck and focus on the things they can control at not worry about the craziness in

washington. dave: we have to face it, recessions are tough and they are tough primarily because of the fact that businesses don't have customers anymore, people prioritize, people have to buy certain things and can't go to the restaurants, they can't buy external things, extraneous things they don't necessarily need. is susan still with us. go ahead. that is the problem. a lot of small businesses that have been killed by the pandemic, the rise in crime, the rise in inflation may go out of business. susan: we are still paying 20% more for airfare, people are still traveling this summer so there is some backstop with cash in the bank or companies, we know they've been catching up and stimulus checks that have fed into a lot of savings for the average american and i remind people we just came off pretty good first corner

earnings season where 75% of companies made more money than anticipated. the thinking on wall street is if we get into a recession, deutsche bank pegging the s&p down to 3,000, we are still 800 points away. however, after a great first quarter, how things play out the rest of the year, by the way the fed could, not saying that they will, but they could be less aggressive when it comes to interest rate hikes. dave: do you think that's likely to happen. it's the inflation that is creating the demand destruction right now and i don't think the fed can afford to be any weaker than it already has been. >> the fed made the decision they didn't care about the volatility they were creating in the financial markets, they were focused elsewhere and the fed may blinken to the midterm elections because they don't want to own the fact they are causing the recession but recession fears are embedded in the market. this week it was all about the recession story and the good news is getting priced into the

markup, growth stocks have been value stocks, yields are moving up the retirees finally getting the arbitrage where they are getting paid on their cash. you can tax in a portfolio because everything is down, bonds, stocks and values, look at 401(k)s, very discerning, we want to keep looking, be optimist, we will get through this like we did in the 70s and early 80s but with a lot of pain and causing a recession. dave: if there is a recession we have those 11.5 million unfilled jobs that could cushion us going into the recession because we have this labor shortage, people will lose jobs and have to take something they think is beneath them but they have to do something to get by in a recession so if we are in a recession right now i don't see it as tough as 2009. you? susan: no i don't.

you heard janet yellen say she doesn't see a recession this year. dave: she has been wrong before. susan: she did point to the strength of the jobs market, record numbers of job openings, still have people getting a high price for their homes and companies are cached up. there is a 50% probability we might not get into a recession commuter that for jpmorgan as well. dave: they are coming out with numbers that are too optimistic. i really don't buy that. when you talk to a lot of these bankers privately they are saying it is more like 75%, 80% chance of a recession. what do you think? >> i think the forecast is too high for the economy and we are learning how leveraged the system was. they are creating leverage in the system, keeping money too loafer too long and consumers paying the price and that inflation is a regressive tax that hurts working families most. on wall street they had a great time the last couple years and made a ton of money and the

problem is it create a lot of risk in the system. there's a recession on wall street, and they missed covid and russia ukraine and recognize that don't want to take your advice. dave: i would put washington at the top of the list. the risk that we are experiencing. susan: who predicted russia, ukraine, covid. dave: when the government was spending $6 trillion it didn't have it wasn't hard to predict there were problems. the extraneous factors that came in -- >> no one objected when people were spending from the cares actor. dave: it was the extra $1.9 trillion but we are getting into the weeds. spending money you don't have, eventually the chickens come home to roost to.

>> borrowing money you don't have to stimulate the economy, your share is $90,000, that's real money we are going to have to pay back with rising interest rates because of inflation and that is why we are having -- >> we are paying it back right now, that is what inflation is, the payback. really appreciate it. liquid fuel become liquid gold, a gallon of gas is now $4.59 as crude oil prices trade near $110 a barrel. madison allworth is in hoboken, new jersey. >> for the 11th day, national record high price for gas, the tax americans are feeling, taking a look in about a month the price of gas has gone up around $0.50. a very steep incline, the drivers we spoke to are saying they are adjusting, some are not filling up their tanks all the way because they can't. take a listen.

>> i tried to go to cheaper prices so i get a little bit just to get me to my destination and when i get to the cheaper one than i will fill up because this is crazy. >> reporter: with the busy summer travel season still ahead of us prices show no signs of slowing down. analysts predicting we could hit a new milestone especially if summer storms come into the mix. >> $5 a gallon gasoline is still a possibility this summer especially if a major hurricane comes as the gulf coast impacting oil production and refinery operations. >> reporter: aaa found if, or in fortune when we hit the $5 mark, 75% of drivers say they will have to make a change. at this point in the us, every single state is paying over $4 a gallon for gas with 6 states

paying over $5. here in new jersey the average for the state is $4.77 a gallon. when you look across the us on average, americans are going to pay $5,000 this year for gas, that is up double from last year and unfortunately, if gas prices rise the estimate could rise as well. dave: thank you very much, the story we've been ahead of all we, the white house's big idea, make a deal with venezuela to ease the burden on the price of gas. let's get the read from the former ambassador under juan guido, i have said newman for too long, forgive me. let me call you ambassador and make it easy for both of us. it is a very simple question, ambassador, venezuelan oil company produces 700,000 barrels a day, they used to

produce 2.5 million a day to but it is become so inefficient under government control and cronyism that it is down to 700,000, the white house deal wants to import from venezuela 1 million barrels a day, how do you get 1 million barrels a day from venezuela when they are only producing 700,000 a day? >> i believe they are producing 700,000 today. our figures are closer to 300,000 today which is basically, may be the regime's figures are 700,000 today but it is completely unrealistic because the capacity is way down. we even had chevron say yesterday that they could perhaps get one as well to produce 300,000 today by the end of this year and more next year and keep increasing 30% of sanctions were lifted but there's no way they can get to

1 million barrels a day unless you live sanctions and get a lot of investment in there, more than giving permission to chevron. dave: we haven't talked about domestic venezuelan consumption which is 600,000 barrels a day. you essentially have to triple their output so that -- to allow us to take 1 million barrels a day from venezuela so what is going on? as you know, oil companies in the united states are being discouraged, actively discouraged from producing more oil by more regulations, pipelines closing down et cetera so while we are discouraging more domestic production in the united states we are going to be encouraging more production which produces oil in a dirtier fashion than we do in the united states. >> they do and i remember that when i was a kid one of my first jobs out of the university would, i used to sit in on the congressional

hearings with jesse helms about the imports, the epa checks on venezuelan oil and i'm familiar with the analyses but what has happened is the biden administration is trying to make more friends in the hemisphere. i'm going this summer to the americas june 6th-10 and it has been very complicated because venezuela, cuba and nicaragua are not invited but a lot of other countries are threatening to boycott so biden is trying to scramble and do two things, try to move venezuela away from the russian orbit and into the us orbit, certainly a laudable enterprise but i think the execution needs to be about supporting human rights in -- and the venezuelan people, not just the us wants oil, that is what it is about, pulling venezuela away from russia at a time when russia is in increasing isolation because of the one ukraine. dave: human rights and for president maduro is an

oxymoron. those things don't go together. that is why it's up. venture but we will see how it turns out. we have to leave it at that. thank you very much for being here, appreciate it. right after the break, st. louis federal reserve president james bullard on this week's market signals, fears of a recession and whether or not the fed is still behind the curve on all of this, we will be back with james bullard next. as a main street bank, pnc has helped over 7 million kids develop their passion for learning through our grow up great initiative. and now, we're providing billions of dollars for affordable home lending programs... as part of 88 billion to support underserved communities... including loans for small businesses in low and moderate income areas.

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dave: the s&p hit bear market territory today, could a skittish market lead to a skittish fed? it would be a perfect time if we had a fed president, edward lawrence joining us, fed -- st. louis federal reserve president james bullard, perfect time for it. >> thank you. i am in the st. louis federal reserve, the economy museum section and joining me as the president of the st. louis federal reserve james bullard. talk about the market, the s&p and bear market territory as we see here, is this reaction we are seeing the last couple days because the accommodation did not get removed fast enough and

the rate hikes we are going to see? >> i don't think the bear market came in the last couple days. it is down from a much earlier peak so there's been a lot of repricing in markets and part of that is due to the fed but part of it might also be what were the prices before the downturn occurred so i think you would expect with the fed raising rates that all these assets, trillions of dollars worldwide would have to be repriced but we have to get inflation under control and we have a good plan to do so. >> the fed chairman has been saying 50 basis points, is that what you see or do we need to go to 75 basis points at some point? >> i said 50 basis points is a good plan for now. as always we have to pay attention to incoming data on the economy and on inflation and we will do that going

forward and we will see how -- you can never make ironclad promises in this business but we will see how this goes. i also said we should get to 3.5% by the end of this year which is higher than my colleagues but it would help us, the more we confront load and the more we can get inflation and inflation expectations under control the better off we will be and in out years 23 and 24 we could be lowering the policy rate, because we got inflation under control. >> but you would have to go 75 basis points at some point. >> the timing of an and the management i would leave to the chair but the end of the year is an arbitrary point. >> economists like mohamed al arian are saying we are seeing growth coming down and receiving inflation remaining high so are they, some saying stagflation is unaffordable. is it?

>> stagflation in the 70s meant you were in recession and inflation was still going up and i don't see that as a scenario right here. i think the economy will be slower this year than it was last year but last year we had a banner year, 5% real growth in the us economy, labor market that is firing on all cylinders, job openings for every unemployed worker, so certainly seems like we have a very good economy, you wouldn't expect it to be that good all the time so it is going to slow down but it is starting to be above trend growth during 2,022 according to most forecasters and i would expect the unemployment rate to continue to take down in 2022 as we go forward but we are going to have to have higher interest rates to keep the inflation component under control. >> you can see lower than 3.5%

even with -- >> sometimes i said even below 3% this year. i don't see anything stopping that so i also think growth will be faster the second half of the year than the first half so we may get further ticks down in the unemployment rate. here talking about an economy still growing above the potential rate, potential growth in the us economy only 1.75%, maybe 2% and forecasters up 275 or 3% growth, usually put downward pressure on the unemployment rate. >> you think growth is in a 2 to 3 range? >> yes, 21/2 to 3% for the year even with the negative first quarter. you are talking the pretty good second half of the year, the second reopening going on where people are getting used to the

endemic phase of the pandemic, doing lots of things, they wanted to get out and be out and about and that will lead to strong consumption this year. >> no recession this year? >> not this year. >> next year? >> no, i don't think so. i think recessions would have to come because there's a really large shock and i can't rule out a really big shock. maybe there would be but i am not seeing it near-term. >> the fed chairman says it needs to come down in a convincing way. what your mind is a convincing way? >> that i would say we don't want to be cherry picking inflation measures and looking at this one versus that one, you would like to see all or different measures of inflation going the same direction and right now they are ongoing in

the same direction but it is up unfortunately so we want to see those peak out, come down and i don't think we want to be too reliant on just talking about used car prices or this or that, you really want the central part of the price change distribution to be coming down. >> district presidents are contacting the outer saying consumers are changing behavior because of inflation. are you seeing that from your contract in your district? >> inflation is tough, low and moderate income households, very tough on renters right now. they are sitting in their apartments and their rent is going up dramatically and they are worse off, they have to decide where they are going to save money and they are trading down and the kinds of things they would buy, they are cutting out some things altogether and businesses have to be cognizant of this or they will lose market share.

a lot of ceos of come on tv here and other places saying i have lots of pricing power and i can do what i want and be able to make a lot of money but some of them are going to get punched in the face here with the fact that consumers have to react. they only have so many dollars coming in the front door and they have to decide what to buy with those dollars they are going to substitute basic necessity for the luxury goods. >> what about a wage price? are you saying that? talking about the pressure on companies. if they hold back the pricing they are beating the inflation they are seeing. >> but i think the disinflation are dynamic will come through that channel, product markets where companies are fearful of losing market share and because of that they moderate their price increases and then

improve their productivity and think about better ways to do things and deliver goods and services to their customers. on the labor market side i don't -- i want the workers to do the best they can, they are going to get better matches, it's a great time to be in the labor market, you can probably get a raise in pay if you switch shops, the all-time high, most of those people are taking another job and that is great, you want that process to go on so i don't begrudge them seeking out the best labor outcome they can get for themselves and their family so i think the disinflation i process will come more on the product side. >> last question, the balance sheet. do you think shrinking the balance sheet, where should it be and shrinking that in combination with interest rates, did that because too much economic slowdown? >> i think the quantitative tightening is an important part of our policy.

we've got that teed up to take off very soon, june 1st and i would mention one other thing to your viewers here which is it is not just the us that is pursuing this policy. it is all central banks around the world so sometimes in this q e-business you talk about europe doing one thing in the us doing another but here they are all going down so i think we have to keep a close eye on that and see how much that is influencing longer-term rates. i think all else equal that would put upward pressure on longer-term rates. >> thank you for your time, appreciate it, no recession this year, next year, pretty rosy forecast, an appointment rate down below 3%, we have to wait and see. dave: sounded like the rosy forecast in light of what we are seeing with the markets today, markets were sliding a little more although they were in the red when you began the interview, they weren't really

that much affected if anything they did go down a little more. good to see you, thank you very much, very cortical interview by edward lawrence of james bullard. we have a lot more coming up. liz peak is going to pick apart some of what he was saying coming next. ♪♪ she always had your back... like the time she spotted the neighbor kid, an approaching car, a puddle, and knew there was going to be a situation. ♪ ♪ ms. hogan's class? yeah, it's atlantis. nice. i don't think they had camels in atlantis. really? today she's a teammate at truist, the bank that starts with care when you start with care,

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dave: we just heard from st. louis fed reserve president james bullard, liz peak was listening and joins me now. i was kind of shocked by his optimism, not to say i am a negative nanny here but he said no recession this year, he went

on to specify he thought gdp growth would be above trend growth, 2.5 to 3%. was that little too rosy for you? >> i think it is an awful lot of economists are talking about most people do not see a recession this year mainly because monetary policy takes a year to kick in. for most people who are anticipating a recession and that's not everybody, expect that to happen maybe midyear next year, that would be the more likely timeframe. as far as the growth and the rest of the year i think he is too optimistic. 2.5% is where we are landing, that is the atlanta gdp now number, that is what a lot of economists have come down to for a couple reasons. one, the job market is beginning to look a little queasy. consumers have been very uplifted by and in cripple employment market and rising consumer net worth as their

stock portfolio and home prices went up. now all of those things are beginning to reverse and we've seen that in consumer sentiment which completely collapsed in the last 2 or 3 months so i'm not as sanguine about the consumer. people are really nervous about inflation and also getting a little more nervous about the fact that whatever retirement portfolio they had on a stake they built up is getting trashed right now. we are in a bear market. dave: i got to emphasize the fact that the federal reserve has access to all kinds of information is normal mortals don't have. i take great caution at criticizing any fed president because they have access to this information but we have access to the financial records of walmart and lows and target and they looked bad this week. that's why we saw 25% cuts in market in one day for those companies. that is a significant event,

market event that is a reflection of the economy and i didn't see that reflection in his remarks. >> and by the way i agree, the fed has a lot of brainy people working on the forecast they come out with but they missed inflation. why did they miss it? consumer net worth increased tens of trillions of dollars in the two years leading up to today and basically they ignored the impact, it has a number impact on spending so look. in terms of profits announcements we heard from retailers, you and i have been around long enough to know what happens in inflationary times is some companies are able to raise prices and others are not. a big retailer vying for competitive market share via pricing is not in a very good position to raise prices. i thought it was stunning that

people were so shocked that they hadn't been able to push along the cost increases all companies are experiencing not just because of goods but also labor and that is what happens when inflation takes hold and it is pretty ugly. dave: it is happening to these stocks that provide stuff everybody needs day-to-day to get along you see what is happening, the nasdaq is the more discretionary company, the companies produce things we don't necessarily need and the startups are getting killed, we had david sachs on yesterday from craft ventures, he's a good venture capitalists, has been in the market for decades. he said 80% to 90% of the deals are falling apart over there. >> one thought on the venture capital world, people were throwing money at people coming out of school if they had, before they even had an idea.

it had gotten ludicrous in my view. as far as tech, tech companies, some of that spending may be discretionary but some is not, some is companies responding to higher labor costs by automating facilities more in terms of communication and secondly a lot of tech companies like apple come to mind to raise prices. i think the texting has been overdone. i think we will see strong spending on tech and i am talking about someone who doesn't follow the day-to-day commentary on apple very closely but it seems to be this is the wrong emphasis. i think much more worrisome to me are consumers goods who don't have much pricing leverage, the make something just like everybody else does and that's the problem. dave: we only have 10 seconds. do you agree with bullard that there will be no recession this year? >> not this year, next year. as that good to see you, thank you very much. elon musk meanwhile speaking of

tech getting hit with more political backlash after saying he would vote gop in the next election, charlie gasparino has news on why he's motivated to say this. charles: he said we are already in a recession, sometimes you don't know you are not recession. dave: more often than not. would with george w. bush -- let's back up -- confluence does not equal causation. i don't want to assume that elon musk is ready to get charged and head to the clink but it is pretty interesting what is going on, going to read a couple notes. he's clearly intimating by his tweets that regulatory charges are looming as he continues a soft bid for twitter, he said he put it on hold, is still interested.

and it is interesting that he put his bid on hold as we were getting information at fox business and others have followed us like the wall street journal that the sec is ramping up its various probes into him including how he disclosed his twitter bid so as all this is coming together, he's not there saying i'm switching parties, the sec is run by democrats, gary gensler, longtime progressive, no fan of free-speech i like elon musk, run by democrats, he has switched his party to republican and if you put this together, it seems like he is preparing for it. i'm not saying it is totally political, maybe there is some basis. if you talk to short-sellers they think he is always fudging numbers, that their side, not saying i agree with that but they would say that.

sec listens to short-sellers sometimes, often a lot of times, the other thing -- dave: we are looking at the stock down 10% today, the market is in huge market selloff going on, test and print drop is pretty significant. >> maybe they think he's going to buy it now, sometimes the toes law slide is indicative of how close he's going to buy, how close he is to buying the whole thing, twitter meaning. the other thing is john coffee, esteemed professor of business law at columbia. he told us he is surprised musk hasn't been charged by the sec because how much he taunts them, how much he seems to violate the spirit, checked by various monitors, filing disclosures for the twitter bid seems to be off. something is brewing. he's preparing.

what is fascinating about this story as it is not going away for a while and twitter is not the same, doesn't want to renegotiate, we are going to have a ton of fun. dave: you just said something that stuck in my head that i wasn't aware of all of his tweets are supposed to be cleared by the sec? i don't think they would have gotten that poop tweet he sent out. charles: the way i remember, he settled with the sec over his unfavored say fake bid to take tesla private at -- funding secured for $420 or whatever it was, don't member the exact numbers, whatever it is, probably wasn't happening or only marginally happening, part of the settlement with the sec was he would have his tweets reviewed independently by the

board, a monitor. dave: don't see many signs of that. charles: he signed something with twitter that said he wouldn't disparage them and he disparages them every day and he signs these things and doesn't abide by it and that is why a lot of people were talking as we reported the other day, if twitter takes him to court and the judge imposes some sort of injunction and he thumbs his nose at it which he might, you never know with him, he's going to jail. that's violating a court order, you go to jail, journalists that don't hand over their noise -- dave: what he's doing right now taking on the entire corporate woke culture, that is a big thing for anybody to take on. do you think that he could win this because he's taking them on at a time, they are doing stupid things like taking him off the s&p woke list when in fact his company is greener than exxon which is still on

the list so what do you think, how's it going to end? charles: one thing i like about elon musk is he called out the woke list of the sec on the s&p, it is complete garbage, think about this. this is why it is hard to hate on the guy even though he may have violated rules and regulations. you could follow all your esg standards and nasdaq, big stock exchange has all the standards for companies to list, except it doesn't apply to russian companies. it doesn't apply to chinese companies, i asked the nasdaq how many chinese companies put leaders on the board and it shows how stupid this is. dave: to your point on a day when all the markets are down twitter is trading about even so there may be signals you're saying that he will go ahead with this deal or at least

sooner rather than later. it's only down 0.3. charles: i think he bids 35 a day coming down from 48. dave: coming up next, we take a break from already in the screen and go to the preakness stakes making a big comeback, off to the races next. ♪♪ customizing your car insurance, so you only pay for what you need. if anyone objects to this marriage... (emu squawks) kevin, no! not today. only pay for what you need. ♪ liberty. liberty. liberty. liberty. ♪ you're a one-man stitchwork master. but your staffing plan needs to go up a size. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire

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call today to request your free bond guide. 1-800-217-3217. that's 1-800-217-3217 dave: the preakness stakes returning to full capacity for the first time since the pandemic. oh wow, you look great, what a wonderful chapeau you have on their. that's where it all happens come with the very latest, but is new besides your dresses there? >> reporter: we are so excited to be here and return to full capacity this year. we are expecting 100,000 people or more to pack the stand here tomorrow to watch the big preakness stakes that kick off tomorrow at 7:0 one p.m. one pm but before we get to

the preakness, we already know we are not going to have a triple crown winner because the horse, the underdog that beat the odds and won the kentucky derby two weeks ago is sitting this race out but there are other contenders, horse trainer stephen newsom is here at the epicenter fresh off the second place finish at the kentucky derby. >> it is what we think about all year and can't wait to get to it and as soon as it is over you can't wait to get back. dave: something else we are watching as the wagering, last year even with reduced capacity at 10,000 spectators in person, all bets placed on preakness day set a record all-time high of one hundred 12. $5 million so we are waiting to see what will happen tomorrow with so much enthusiasm happening around the event being back in person again,

start time 7:01 tomorrow night. dave: you are dressed for it, appreciate you being here, take a look at at the markets. they've recovered a little bit since the jim bollard interview we had, the s&p is still in market territory just barely so the dow down 400 points, a lot more to come right after this, stay tuned. ♪♪ ery trade, which saved investors over $1.5 billion last year. that's decision tech. only from fidelity. if you used shipgo this whole thing wouldn't be a thing. yeah, dad! i don't want to deal with this. oh, you brought your luggage to the airport. that's adorable.

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>> no recession this year? >> not this year. >> next year? >> i don't think so. that's not my case. recessions would have to come because there is some really large shock and i can't rule out that there would be some really big shock, maybe there would be but i'm not seeing it near-term. dave: no recession this year according to james bullard who was talking to fox business. a more optimistic tone despite what we've seen with the markets although they have improved since the interview and the news got out of him saying no recession this year. daniel garza, great to see you again, bullard may not feel we will have a recession this year but a lot of average people do with biden's approval particularly among hispanics dropping like a stone.

>> this is a kick in the shins to latinos and freeware. they are having to pay like their fellow americans $5200 more a year because of inflation. it is a punch to the gut in the sense we are feeling this pain. biden is resolved of suffering from a 26% approval rating by the latino community in america i would tell you latinos are not turning on biden for no reason at all, they are turning on biden because he turned on them and i think biden's policies and his ineptitude is putting the american dream further out of reach for a lot of americans. dave: it is exactly why a lot of latin americans came in the first place, or parents or grandparents, because of the american dream and it seems more out of reach than ever. >> that is right. it seems he is more concerned about the latin x community than the latino community.

dave: let me stop you there, for those who don't know what you are talking about, that politically collect phrase latin x instead of latino or latina, it is a non-gender way of saying it, that kind of woke talk doesn't get you far in latin american community i can tell you. >> it is a small community, a niche community of folks are interested in progressive politics in the community that is more interested about controlling your thought and behavior and conversation than they are about the working class that is suffering out there because they are having to pay more at the pump or more at the grocery store. look, this is real pain americans are feeling. we contracted in this first quarter. our economy is diminishing and people are feeling the pain. that's why you're seeing the numbers and it is not just biden. he's a dead weight to a lot of candidates in the democratic party coming up in the midterm

elections and this is going to be an opportunity for new districts like colorado and hunt in houston, you are going to see reelection of tony gonzalez in florida and texas and new candidates like myra florez in south texas and kathy garcia. dave: the biden administration keeps courting exactly those marxist dictators that people come here to get away from, the cubans, the nicaraguans and again i'm talking about the leaders, not the population. these marxist leaders in venezuela, cuba and nicaragua are what people are running away from. we only have 30 seconds but breaking news, biden officials consider inviting cuba representative as observer to the america summit, stuff like that gets under the skin very quickly. you only have 10 seconds. dave: >> they are cut out of the same cloth, they make the plantagenet's and the tutors

and the borgias proud with the way hunter biden has been fleecing americans. dave: closing up to tyrants is not good for people who are running away from those tyrants and that is what is happening to a lot of people, daniel garcia, always a pleasure to talk to you. the interview with james bullard seems to have -- column is the wrong word but stopped the bleeding in the markets. charles payne is here to take you through the rest of the day, anything could happen. charles: obviously the biases to the downside, we will do our best. good afternoon. this is making money. breaking now the s&p 500 has joined the nasdaq composite officially entering bear market territory. by the way not all bear markets are the same, and they don't coincide with recession. i will cover all the different scenarios. my guests will share how you should be navigating treacherous waters.