40%. lauren: ooh, okay. stuart: that's it. that's according to harvard. they also say that 80 percent of the 137 million homes in america are at least 20 years old. not sure how that works, but nonetheless. i'm surprised, i thought a lot would be older than that. apparently not. all right. you know, it comes that certain time of day, we're approaching noon. my time is up so, neil, it's yours. niewl niewl -- neil: all right, stuart, thank you very much. a selloff at the corner of wall and broad, a bit of a wash in the month of may. there's a tug-of-war going on between those optimistic about business growth, we saw that in salesforce, after hours trading showing robust business growth. we are not seeing it in a host of other areas, most notably among technology companies that are starting the beginning of what could be a layoff process right now, layoffs in that sector the highest we've seen since 2020.

so this push and pull over what's good news or bad news and how the federal reserve would respond to that, that the continues to be a dominant theme. this is the sixth month in a row we've seen that play out right now at the corner of wall and broad. and, by and large -- with the exception of may -- more on the selling side than the buying side, even though i believe the nasdaq was down about 2% for the month of may. the other averages basically a watch. let's get the read from grady trimble. opec looking to say, russia, we know you're part of opec+, a sister community of oil-producing nations, but we don't want to hear from you. something like that. what's going on? >> reporter: yeah. so the price of oil is still elevated. you see it there, $116 a barrel after the european union voted to ban most russian oil imports into the union by the tend of the year. of course, gas prices are extreme treatmently high right now -- extremely high right now in the united states. "the wall street journal" reports some opec members are

exploring the possibility of suspending russia from an oil production deal. russia's crude oil output is expected to fall about 8% this year thanks largely to western sanctionings. exempting russia could open the door to countries like saudi arabia, the united arab emirates and others to pump more oil which would eventually bring more supply to the market, a big problem right now and something the biden administration and the g7 countries have been pushing the opec+ countries to do since the war began. despite the news that more supply could be on the way, canary's ceo says oil could hit $150 a barrel in the near future. >> supplies staying the same and opec has been unable to add as much supply as they said they could, the u.s. isn't adding more supply, it's very difficult for us to put more supply in the system right now, and the administration keeps throwing

wet blankets at us. so it's the harder and harder and harder to move forward. >> reporter: he says we also could hit $6 a gallon for a national average for gas by july. by the way, the opec+ producers are set to meet tomorrow. they're expected to approve a planned increase in production of 432,000 barrels a day but, neil, most analysts say that's not going to be enough to, you know, create this balance of supply and demand. we're still going to have this huge imbalance which is going to create high gas prices, high fuel prices in general through the summer. neil: yeah. that's not great news. thank you very much for that the, grady trimble. and to his point, gas now at a record nationally of $4.57 a gallon, it's up 60% in just the last year, and if stephen schork is right, this could be around a while. he's the principal of the schork group, he's been following this very, very closely steep. , first off, these anomalies you see in different parts of the country where in one part of l. a. county they're over $8 a

gallon. now, a lot, i would assume, of that is driven by special environmental surplus charges, state and local taxes and the rest. but we do see a wide spread of prices. what do you make of that? because the average in california is a little bit north of $6.14 a gallon. still high and still way over the national average, but what do you see happening? >> yeah, well, of course california and, unfortunately, my home state here in pennsylvania lead the nation in tax increases. so we've seen nothing but a consistent rise in taxes in california over the last 15 years. so that is a good chunk of the disconnect between california prices and the rest of the country. to your point with regard to epa charges, regulation, you have to blend a very specific grade of gasoline in california. you have these fuels that go from market to market, so you cannot comingle these fuels in the pipeline, in the storage

system. so you have artificially created supply shortages because we simply don't have the pipelines or the storage to segregate all these boutique fuels. so, therefore, you are keeping supplies artificially low just because of the regulation. then you add in the environmental charges, the taxes, and you california which sets itself apart from the rest of the country where prices are high in the other 49 states, but they are especially high california, and that is because californians are paying the price at the pump. these are the prices they voted for; i.e., these are the politicians they continue to put in sacramento who create these laws, this market environment and create this disconnect. these prices are high, and they shall remain high for the foreseeable future. neil: i repeat it often enough on this show, stephen, but i think the solution for higher prices are still higher prices, and there's a point at which americans say no mas. we didn't see it over memorial

weekend even in the face of those prices, but there's got to be a sort of crescendo event where that happens. what are you seeing? >> yeah. that event is, of course, a recession. if we are not in a recession now, neil, we will be in recession probably by the end of the summer. /. neil: really? >> every recession going back to the '74 oil embargo has started with a massive rise in oil prices, energy costses and a massive rise in food costs. that has been the catalyst. no different here. well, it is different here because the prices in surgeries we are seeing both energy -- surges, both energy and food we've never seen like this before. to you point, the consumer spending has been good, but the grave i have train the has stopped. personal savings rates are down 4.4%, the lowest since, i think the, 2003. so we've run through the stimulus, we're going into our piggybanks, real disposable

income has fallen, we simply don't have the money anymore to spend so this is, neil, the last hurrah. we will see a big demand summer for energy costs, but then it ends. neil: right. >> you run out of money and, essentially, the only thing -- to your point, that inflection point of when do consumers say no mas -- they say it at recession, and we are knocking on the door right now. neil: let me ask you, many people cling to the idea that the rate of increase, you know, not only for gas prices, but for prices of goods and services has been slowing. in the latest period 6.3% year-over-year from 6.6% the month before. core prices now running at about a 4.9% annual rate from a 5.2 annual rate. that's still very, very high, and we don't want to leap at that as a preview of coming attractions, but what if that's what we see play out for a few

months in a row of data where, still increasing, but not as much? >> yeah, absolutely. now, when economists look at inflation, they like to look, to your point, at core inflation -- neil: right. >> -- which excludes food and energy. so inflation on that respect, neil, might be moderating as long as you don't have to eat, you don't have to drive -- [laughter] you don't have to stay cool or turn the lights on, you don't want to stay warm next winter, then, yeah, inflation is moderating. but from that standpoint, from a food and energy standpoint, we haven't seen the worst of it yet, neil. we are putting fewer seeds into the ground today because fertilizer prices are high because we've created a war on natural gas which is the primary feed stock of fertilizer. so when you take those seeds and they germinate and we take them out of the ground in the fall, we're not going to have our yield. so we're not going to have enough food come the fall. so, yeah, the core might be moderating, but it's not going

to moderate for energy costs, and the food costs are high and only going higher between now i and going into the holidays. so, yeah, the inflation is here to stay. s it has not peaked for the every man and, therefore, we are sowing the seeds for lower incomes, disposable income will continue to fall as inflation remains and continues to move at higher rates. neil: i'm so glad you said that about core prices, because if we just take out eating and filling up our tanks, we'll all be fine. >> yeah, exactly. neil: right? unless you're, you know, eating in your car as you're filling it up. stephen, thank you very, very much. stephen schork -- >> thank you. neil: peter doocy at the white house on how they're trying to get this notion across that they're on top of it at a time it looks like prices are still continuing to get toppy. peter, where are they know on -- now on this? >> reporter: well, we're hearing two different things from different participants of the biden administration.

on the one hand, we've got this brand new and kind of surprising admission from the treasury secretary that they miscalculated how bad inflation was going to get. >> well, look, i think i was wrong then about the path that inflation would take. as a i mentioned, there have been unanticipated and large shocks to the economy that boosted energy and food prices and supply bottlenecks that have affected our economy badly that i at the time didn't fully understand. >> reporter: but then the on the other hand, you've got white house officials who are telling us to refer all the way back to the state of the union address, three months ago, to learn about biden's inflation-fighting plan, as in they're not trying anything new. instead, continuously trying to blame rising prices on supply chain issues tied to russia's

invasion of ukraine. does president biden take any responsibility for his policies potentially contributing to inflation? >> his policies have helped the economy get back on its feet. that's what his policy has, his policies have done. in the -- when we talk about the gas prices right now, this is, indeed, putin's gas hike. >> reporter: prices were, of course, rising before putin did anything in ukraine, and now there are various reports the president is upset with his comms team for not emphasizing inflation and what the administration was doing about it sooner. neil? neil: all right. peter, thank you very much for that, peter doocy. let's get the read from brendan daniels, key player in looking at our supply chain, all the problems associated with that. that's not going away, brandon. you can talk about inflation, rising prices, how stubborn they

are, how much they're stick thing and continuing to stick, but the supply chain is a whole other layer of nonsense, right in. >> well, neil -- and thank you for having me on, it's good to see you again. neil: same here. >> i think, i think we're fighting different fights with the same weapon, and that's why we're losing. so, you know, when steve the was just talking to you before and bringing everything back down to oil and gas derivatives like fertilizer shortages then creating grain and feed shortages, he's right that there are shortages, but there are shortages due to the reverberating impacts of supply chain a inadequacies. so russia and china both being subject to a war and lockdowns reduces the availability of total distribution of food and the equipment and the capabilities and the underlying

manufacturing componentry needed to actually fuel our food industry. so we've got these supply chain issues over here, and then on the other side we're raising interest rates to combat inflation which are actually the repercussions of the supply chain problems. so we're raising interest rates to fight inflation, but all we're actually doing is we're sucking investment out of the market because everyone's now saying, oh, i can hedge inflation by moving into, you know, these higher interest rate products or more traditional products or hedges and moving out of equity positions. so we're fighting the fights with the wrong weapons. we're taking much too far of a blunt instrument into this fight against inflation. neil: i don't know what feeds what though, brandon. you could argue with the rising costs, disproportionate costs of

gasoline -- diesel as well in california, and california is where we get a lot of our basic food supplies for this country. not exclusively, obviously, but a good deal. that's going to make it difficult for truckers to transport that from california to other states. so you've got this self sort of feeding spiral here, and the end results are higher prices and more headaches for businesses, for truckers, for you name it. now, if it is, indeed, feeding on itself, where do you see this going? >> i mean, it is a vicious cycle. so we need corporations, we need the u.s. federal government, we need the democracy 10, right, the g7 plus south korea, australia and india to get together and to talk about the reshoring major aspects of the supply chain. we also have to be the working with the nations in africa to

reset our expectations of the breadbasket of the world. you know, there's major tectonic shifts that we need to make into the supply chain redesign that corporations both public and private partnerships need to be established to fix those issues. and if we don't fix those and attack those at their heart, this will keep getting worse. and then if we keep trying to fight supply chain-based inflation whether it's in oil and gas, you know, neil, or if it's in core componently or neon-making chips, wherever the supply chain issue if we keep trying to fight it with an interest rate, you know, weapon, we're going to end up continuing to drive a sort of flee to safety into more traditional assets and outside of equity and growth, right? that's why you see tech stocks taking a pummeling.

neil: commodities not, right? those who buy, you know, pegged on that you've been richly rewarded, and i'm wondering if you're right about this. you've been pretty canny about where we're going. do you think that that continues, that those who invest in commodities of all sorts it seems these days including energy, including agricultural items -- maybe less so the metals -- that's the place on the -- to be? >> it is the place to be because, one, it'll see growth because we need more in order to essentially fuel the economy of the future and, two, prices aren't going down in that space. and so i think the people that got in and are riding the wave are very happy right now and will continue to be even through a recession. i think it's potentially got the opportunity to be the recession-proof because people are investing to secure the supply chain for tomorrow. neil: yeah. someone is always making money

in any given bear market or tumble. >> that's right. it's like matter. never destroy or created, it's always i flowing from one place to the other. neil: right. we were just trying to get a better handle on who exactly is it flowing to. brandon, thank you very much. brandon daniels, exiger ceo. by the way, another component is the federal verve. i'm not talking about raising interest rates. sadly, no, more hikes to come. but beginning today it's beginning to unwind that balance sheet of nearly $9 trillion. so that could be another one-two punch because the more you start adding potential supply to the market like treasury notes and bonds, that kind of stuff, you put further pressure on the prices of those items which the bond market, as you know, only lists those yields. here we go. more after this. ♪ ♪

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first psoriasis, then psoriatic arthritis. even walking was tough. i had to do something. i started cosentyx®. cosentyx can help you move, look, and feel better... by treating the multiple symptoms of psoriatic arthritis. don't use if you're allergic to cosentyx. before starting...get checked for tuberculosis. an increased risk of infections some serious... and the lowered ability to fight them may occur. tell your doctor about an infection or symptoms... or if you've had a vaccine or plan to. tell your doctor if your crohn's disease symptoms... develop or worsen. serious allergic reactions may occur. watch me. neil: i know you've heard this one before, but the prospects for getting some sort of common ground legislation through to the address all the violence we've been seeing particularly with the texas school shooting last week and the week before that the shooting up in buffalo at a grocery store, that the two sides are finding more common

ground than you would imagine. not across the board, but some whisperings of potential links here. irish a shah ofny following it all from capitol the hill -- aishah hasnie. >> reporter: hey there, neil, that's right. so the good news the is the talks have not broken down yet, and i can tell you there are a lot of talks happening in the senate right now. in fact, today there are a group of senators that are getting together and talking about gun legislation. this one is led by senator chris murphy of connecticut, then there's another group also led by with murphy and senator cornyn of texas that had a talk yesterday over zoom, and that one apparently went really well because senator cornyn released a statement about it. in it he said this: senators murphy, sinema, tillis and i had a very constructive conversation about the best response to the horrific events in uvalde last week. we asked our staff to continue to work together to address some of the details that we hope to be able to discuss at some point

soon. these are all good signs. now, those talks for that particular group centered around red flag laws, school safety and mental health. now, democrats, neil, would love to see expanded background checks be a part of these talks. we're talking about a 50-50 senate here, and even house speaker nancy pelosi has admitted that democrats are really going to have to compromise to get something across the finish line. >> the background checks would save the most lives, but there are other things that we can do to reduce the access and the incidence of the violence and the gun -- in order to get something done, it's probably going to have to be a compromise. >> reporter: so that's been very interesting coming from the speaker as house democrats are pushing a massive gun reform package that some are calling partisan and just for show. it's called the protecting our kids act. it includes raising the minimum age to buy semiautomatic rifles from 18 to 21, includes banning

sales of high capacity ammunition magazines. it's massive. it's not likely to go anywhere in the senate, but the house judiciary committee still planning to have a mark-up on it tomorrow, and you can expect that mark-up to be, i would say, interesting at the very least. jim jordan, the ranking member for that committee, told me it's going to be, quote, intense. so expect some fireworks. neil in. neil: yeah, we've come this way so many times before -- >> reporter: we have. neil: great seeing you, thank you very much. aishah hasnie on capitol hill. want to go to senator roger marshall, sits on the senate small business committee, senate energy as well. senator, it's always good having you, and i wanted to relay on item that shows maybe some middle ground or acceptable ground even among conservatives and those, you know, second amendment advocates and the like who are saying maybe if we tighten the restrictions around gun ownership, that was used in

today's new york post, a conservative writer says people under 21 are not allowed to buy cigarettes or alcohol, and there are already rules that prevent 18-year-olds from buying hand guns in many states, so she's saying what would be wrong with limiting these types of purchases, semiautomatic weapons and the rest, to the 21 and over crowd? what do you think of that? >> yeah. well, neil, like you, like many of your listeners, i'm still mourning with the people of uvalde, texas, and grieving with them. you know, as a physician, if we had a bad outcome, we would try and listen to learn from the situation as well. so i think we need to be careful not to be yielding our political sabers right now. but what we can't do is punish law-abiding citizens and take guns away from them. in rural kansas the sheriff's office is often 30 minutes or longer away, so we do can use

them for self-protection, but i am listening. i don't claim to have the answer. i'm proud of what we've done before when republicans were leading. we worked hard to make our schools stronger, harder, safer, and i think there's more things that we could do. there's covid dollars left out there for those grade schools and the middle schools, high schools that they could use to make their schools even harder. we did a good job improving background checks as well. but i'm going to stand up and defend our second amendment. neil: well, i agree with you that there are far, far, you know, good and responsible handgun owners, gun owners in general than there are those with mental issues and the like, but it's those with mental issues that somehow in the present background setup we have don't get discovered. i don't know why that is, senator. you know far more on this subject than i do, but time and again we see people who should have been fingered or their name should have come up maybe with youth violations that never made

a background report because we don't put them in such reports. but do you think therein lies the potential solution to get ahead of the possible dangerous types who could get their that hands on weapons? >> right. so, neil, certainly we do have a mental health epidemic, and we're not going to fix that overnight. so, therefore, how do we handle the situation? i know an inroad that they have -- [inaudible] technology to make their schools safer, technology to pick up through social media channels these people that are having a mental breakdown for lack of a better word as well. but we do need to improve that process. again, we can't punish law-abiding citizens. neil: but all be open to maybe looking at the wrong people getting their hands on weapons of all sorts? >> i'm listening as well as i can right now. lots of kansans are reaching out, and we're trying to find a

good spot. neil: got it. you got a good deal of attention not too long ago helping someone who was at the border who was suffering from heat exhaustion. could you tell us a little bit about that? because you said it reminds us of some of the the bigger issues here that go beyond just numbers. >> yeah. so i took a group of sheriffs' officers from kansas to the border. kansas is now a border state. we have somebody die almost every day from fentanyl poisoning. we rode with some sheriff's officers, and they're the true heroes here. we did encounter a person that was being human trafficked and was able to rescue her. she was having heat exhaustion. she hadn't had water for two days and really we gave her some simple first aid as well. but these problems that we're having in texas the down on the border, the arizona border's now impacting all of us, and just so proud of the officers there, the efforts that they're making. but this human crises has been created by our president.

he needs to go see this for himself. the very people he thinks he's helping, he's putting them in harm's way. just a tragedy that they're going through down there, it's just horrific. neil: senator, thank you very much. i'm sure that particular individual that took advantage of your kind care appreciates that. thank you again, and we'll see what happens next. by the way, we are following this conning selloff at the corner of wall and broad as we kick off the sixth month of the year. a lot of people looking for some sort of closure in the month of june. after all, we'll complete another quarter with, we'll be at the half-year point and all the major averages are down. they were kind of flat in the month of may. i think most traders would take that over a freefall like we experienced in february, march and april. but for the time being at least as we kick off this new month, they're not getting it. stay with us. ♪ ♪ -- you can't go home -- ♪ there's only one place that

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neil: well, elon musk is nothing if not blunt, and apparently this whole idea of, you know, commuting from home or virtual work from home, he's had enough of it and essentially saying come in or just get out. something like that. susan li, what's he arguing here? >> reporter: yeah. not even three days a week, but elon musk says he's somebody that will not tolerate remote work. so we had a leaked tesla memo posted online on twitter, and he was pretty blunt. he said remote work is no longer acceptable. anyone, by the way, who wishes to do remote work, he says, must be in the office for a minimum, and he says i mean minimum, of 40 hours per week or depart

tesla, meaning you can leave. and this is less, he says, of what we ask of factory workers. and he also caveats it has to be a main tesla office, not a satellite office which is unrepresented to the job -- unrelated to the job duties. and he gave an example of h.r., having your office in another state. in response to this online, this was a leaked e-mail and a memo, musk can't either confirm or deny that it was real. in fact, he said, you know, he just tweeted that they should pretend to work somewhere else. currently i've counted, neil, there are four tesla factories around the world, fremont, shanghai, austin and berlin. and the reference to tesla factory workers in light of what's happening many shanghai was puzzling to a lot of people in the market because during those covid closures in shanghai, those rolling closures for several weeks, he had thousands of staff being locked into the shanghai factory, and they were working 12 hour shifts

6 days a week. yes, some would say they worked pretty hard there for elon musk. maybe it wasn't 40 hours, but do they get more money, more pay and maybe more benefits as a result of all that hard work? if you look at tesla's stock right now, not much reaction. it's reacting probably more to what's happening with china competitors for tesla because you heard from xpung and the like pretty good deliveries in may. really this discover hang, neil, on tesla's stock has been the twitter takeover, and we still don't have anything i a firmtivt yet. tetes la last week hit an 111 -- 11-low. it depends on how shanghai and twitter turn out. neil: twitter is much more likely to be a company that utilizes remote work than tesla ever could or would, so maybe that was a veiled signal to them. [laughter] i don't know. >> reporter: very smart. yeah, i think they're probably

paying attention in terms of what the new owner might want. neil: i got it. susan li following that. scott martin, his firm has told the workers you are in person 24/7, and i'm going to call you at three in the morning just to make sure you are. he's a cruel man, king's view asset management cio. >> hi. neil: good to see you, scott -- >> i am a, and, neil, just for the record real quick, it's more than 24/7 at king's view. if you want to work here, it's got to be 28/12 or something like that. neil: i can hear you now, are there no prisons? [laughter] you know, obviously, musk is sending a signal. i always hi he's smarter and more clever by half when he sends a signal. i don't necessarily think it's toward tesla workers exclusively, but maybe a veiled reference to those in the technology community for whom this is now seen as almost a birthright. what do you think? >> it is. it's a bit austere, i guess, on surface. but i think he's got a point.

i mean, you've seen the robotics orders in the united states, neil, surge again in the past quarter because of the fact mainly more -- on the high end, it's been more the plastics and metals side. you're looking at the automation, automotive industry the, things like that, factories and such. that's where the robots have been able to step in. but similarly so, robots nowadays can do a lot, and they actually show up for work. and nowadays you've got the american worker that's almost nowhere to be found. they hem and haw about benefits and pay, and, therefore, these robots can somewhat take these jobs. you've got two jobs out there right now, neil, for every one person looking for a job, and we're still not filling those jobs even to boot after all of that. to me, this is something that companies are getting wise and smart about and will probably continue with. neil: and despite that 2-1 ratio, there was a time when it was almost 3-1, and we are seeing technology companies out of the blue laying off workers. i know this was the 60 some odd

companies and 16,000 positions over the last, you know, year or so, but that's something we never used to see. >> we didn't. now, i would say part of that is the effect of the technology sector the, look at all these companies that have now since taken it on the chin, to say the least, with respect to their stock prices. i think that industry got a little boated as far as jobs, pay -- bloated as far as jobs, pay and benefits. it needs to come down a little bit especially on the tech side when it comes to advertising and spending. but certainly, yes, you're right, these numbers are getting pretty stark, and they're going to start building up more and more as we go into the summertime. but that will come back around as the economy resurges but, hopefully, we get there sooner than later. if. neil: yeah. we get cocky on the one side and all of a sudden workers think they're indestructible, then you realize, oh, that's right. life is all about pendulums swinging. great job, my friend. and i don't think you're that cruel. you're a nice boss but a tough

boss. >> thanks. neil: scott martin following all of that. we just call him captain bly. he was very flexible with remote work, just did it in the ocean. we have a lot more coming up, including this new push for mask mandates in light of a pickup in covid cases. are they warranted? are they necessary? after this. ♪ here i go again on my own. ♪ going down the only road i've ever known. ♪ like a drifter i was born to walk alone ♪♪ at fidelity, your dedicated advisor will help you create a comprehensive wealth plan for your full financial picture. with the right balance of risk and reward. so you can enjoy more of...this. this is the planning effect. at adp, we use data-driven insights to design hr solutions

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neil: well, i hope you didn't the throw the away that covid mask just yet because now the justice department is pushing an appeals court to return to some of these restrictions that were in place before they were not in place. jonathan serrie has a more in

atlanta on all of this. what's happening? >> reporter: got my max right here: neil: there you go. >> reporter: the justice department argues that the cdc does, indeed, have the authority to impose mask mandates when it's in the interest of public health, and according to the filing the cdc properly establishes the nation's transportation system presents unique risks, people from diverse parts of the country share tight the quarters. and health officials say wearing masks, reduces the risk of transmission. the biden administration has been keen to restore the federal government's ability to impose mask mandates. cdc officials have yet to say whether they would actually reinstate the travel mask mandate if the d the oj wins its appeal. the agency's web site continues to recommend people wear palacings in indoor -- masks in in indoor settings. infections are rising in the u.s. 59% of active cases involve a

new subvariant that early studies suggest can still infect people even if they developed immunity against the original omicron variant. while current vaccines cannot block all infections, federal health officials say the shots along with anti-viral treatments significantly reduce the number of hospitalizations and deaths. but whether they take the added precaution of bringing back mask mandates on planes remains up in the air. neil? neil: again, this is for mass transit in general. it's not a requirement in stores and that sort of thing for the time being. >> yeah. planes, trains, buses, other forms of public transportation. neil: all right. i thought you were going to say planes, trains and automobiles -- [laughter] great movie there. no masks involved add -- at all. thank you, jonathan serrie. two-thirds of americans owe more than they're worth: that's not shocking, but now they have some company. the united states government. i'll explain after this.

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♪ neil: all right, no pearl of wisdom here, but generally you want to own more than you owe. but further eyes government now -- for the united states government now, what we owe is beginning to really dwarf everything we own. that's called our debt, and it is out of control. hillary vaughn with the latest numbers and implications of all of that on capitol hill. hey, hillary. >> reporter: hi, neilful well, some experts say there is doomsday ahead. the committee for a responsible federal budget saying that the the u.s. financial health is in danger even if congress does not pass any new spending. the group says the national debt could reach 125% of the gdp within 10 years, pushing the deficit as high as $3.1 trillion by 2032. the committee saying this: these current projections may prove optimistic, however, since they assume policymakers will allow a number of temporary policies to expire and only grow discretionary spending with inflation and won't pass any new

deficit finance legislation. but the bad news is democrats have not given up on their dream dos of more spending. treasury secretary janet yellen saying today the biden administration has not given up on a reconciliation package as president biden continues to blame inflation not on his spending, but on putin. in an op-ed he penned monday, biden listed off his solutions for reining in inflation, but none of them included a pause on new government spending. so even some democrats now are saying it was spending that created this problem. >> we're all paying the price for having overstimulated this economy during the pandemic and putting too much money into people's pockets which created a lot of this inflation. and there's no free lunch here. now they're going to -- we're all going to have to pay the price. >> reporter: and, neil, of course the president says he is focused on debt reduction, but to do so they're not looking at putting a pause on my new spending. instead, they want to raise taxes to generate some more

revenue to pay down the debt instead. neil? neil: hillary, thank you for that, i think. to danielle dimartino booth, former dallas fed adviser who was warning us about this actually years ago before anyone if was paying much anticipation. danielle, i've always been amazed when you think in terms of the country, all we have, all the assets, the land, the things that make america great are dwarfed by the things that make america not so great, what we owe, and it's not even close. what do you think? >> no. you're talking about apples and oranges here. and to the point of we overstimulated the u.s. economy, and now we're paying the price. we're paying the price in fades. and, you know, americans are -- in spades. americans are living paycheck to the paycheck even making good sums of money in what is still a tight labor market. the notion that raising taxes when you're headed into a recession is somehow going to help anything, all it's going to

do is create higher joblessness in this country. we absolutely have to get this debt under control. the federal reserve has a role to play. i'm sure that they'ring with really -- they're being really pressured by the administration to not raise interest rates too much because, god forbid, we don't have the money to service this pile of debt that we've got. neil: yeah. if you think about it, even if they go slow on rate increases -- and people have strong views either way on the, i'm not here to debate that -- but they're starting this greatening winding of all these assets and money on the books totaling almost $9 trillion and relinquishing that could compound the problem right now, right? >> it certainly could. you're seeing corporations in america have trouble whether it's a small business or a large business. you're seeing corporations have trouble accessing finance at these levels, and now we're going to be pull liquidity the further out of the market at such a fragile time, you have to wonder if you're going to see a

continued increase -- which we're already seeing, by the wae going bankrupt and in companies that are defaulting. these are real, real world problems, and they involve real world people who are at risk of losing their jobs the worse this gets. neil: so when this quantitative tightening versus quantitate thive easing and they start the getting rid of mortgage securities and treasury notes and bonds, all that floods the market. now, obviously, not at once and it takes a while. what do -- play that out for me. >> well, you're obviously going to have to have the buyers of the new debt that's going to be issued by the treasury, but ill dare say that -- i would dare say that the public pensions, life insurance companies, some of these entities are absolutely begging for, they're dying for higher yielding debt so that they don't have to play the federal reserve's other game which is taking on too much risk in the junk bond market or in the stock market. it's inappropriate for the retirees who are relying on them

being very good fiduciaries. neil: so what does the federal reserve do? i get a feeling they're going to continue hiking rates and try to maintain this or try to crack inflation a little bit. i don't know whether they succeed, but now in combination with, you know, up loading all these treasury securities, it's the only game in town. it's the only one doing something. whether you like the fed or not, we're not seeing that out of anyone else in washington, so what happens? >> we're going to wait and see, neil. i think that there's a very orchestrated reason that the federal reserve is not planning on having want tative of tightening ramp up fully until after labor day. neil: right. >> they might be looking to pause on rate hikes. they want to see how this is going to affect america. they don't want to crash the plane, so to speak. neil: got it. well put. thank you very much, danielle. i know it gets a little wonky, but all these mortgage securities, treasury securities, you unload them, that increases

the supply, could cheapen the price. the cheaper the price, the higher the yield. the professional a term is a mess. we'll have more after this. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ..

neil: was really big in the

1970s, the last time we had double digit inflation. all these concerns we are ruining the entire globe and this country in particular. i associate them with the money supply and i don't know. to your point, edward lawrence might not relate to that but we are seeing the markets fear that again we are going to relive the 7-day experience with prices going sky high and leading to a slow down and the economy but just in case, edward lawrence is ready with his leisure suit. he is at the white house. >> reporter: i saw the musical. neil: that certainly counts. >> reporter: the president meeting in an hour and 45 minutes with major baby food formula produces, the message for the president is produce more as quickly as you can. the administration is playing

catch up from a recall that happened with food manufacturers, trying to pressure these companies to fill the void from february. they are working on this since the recall happened. the president announced united airlines agreed to fly for free, 3.7 million, twee 8 ounce bottles of baby formula from london to the us. the fda approved the company selling here at this meeting today, the president will get an update on abbott factory back online in three days. the product being made will not be on store shelves, supply chains not happening at all. >> the strength of the economic recovery, the work we have done on the supply chain side for the last we 9 months of

consistent, focused effort working with different parts of the supply chain. >> reporter: it was just one more thing the president broke. >> businesses just came out of a pandemic and 11%. they are the cause of this. what created this and they are trying to spin it as someone else's problem and no idea how to do that. >> reporter: it was because our recall what happened in the abbott factory. other companies had trouble getting the resources and stuff they need to increase capacity to fill the void. neil: hopefully this is a sign they can start addressing that void. following a number of

developments, lauren, in the tech sector, it is unthinkable. >> the trends we are watching, 66 firms, 16,800 pink slips. overstaffed and tightening their belts and higher prices, capitalist money is drying up if you look at the nasdaq. it fell 2% last month. look at at the chart. it is down 24% this year. you see small companies like the thin tech bulk cutting 1/3 of their staff, facebook's meta, microsoft and google slowed. job openings came in, 11.4 million in april. suggests that wages are likely going to rise, they might not rise as much, they get the

government data on the job market on friday. it is expected to show the annual increase in earnings eases a bit to 5.2%. in addition to tech the housing market. applications for mortgage, 40% from last year. demand fell to the lowest level of 2,018, despite a decrease in interest rates. the reason is inventory tight, prices high and rates might have come down but they are still talking 5% and i can add this fear of a looming layoff whether you have any other type of job, are you going to purchase them? may be construction layoffs should the economy or housing market pool off a bit more. not saying that is happening

but something economists are watching. stuart: does follow a domino like trajectory. we are talking about that, retail price watcher on the homefront, a spike in home prices that might be one last burst of activity. we have lydia on this push up in gas prices. this does not end, does it? >> no it doesn't. overnight we saw the average price for a gallon of gas across the country spiking another $0.05, now the average, reaching $4.67 for a gallon of regular but right behind me, we are at $5.19. i can tell you when i got here, the price is higher at $5.37. why did it come down? possibly because new york state

started a holiday on gas taxes shaving off $0.16 a gallon for consumers and depending how you look at this, this last the rest of the year. you could say it will save consumers or the flipside, costs the state of new york $585 million through the end of the year. new york not pursuing the measure, a handful of other states cut drivers break temporarily suspending the gas tax. critics say this is about policy, the concern is cutting the tax will encourage more gas consumption and force prices even higher. >> they are politically popular, expedient, not solving the problem. >> reporter: while new york suspends the gas tax other states like california are raking in the tax revenue from consumers as gas prices soar. california has the highest average price per gallon of

gas, $6.19 right now. it has the highest state tax on fuel, $0.51 a gallon. it expects to raise $8.8 billion on sale of gasoline alone this year. now you see gas prices spiking $0.05 on average overnight. the conversation is cutting taxes, a way to spare us the pain at the pump or should we be talking about producing more oil and gas to get prices down. neil: the battle goes on and on, not just gas prices, you are seeing on the housing front which would seem to be an oxymoron. if you are worried about interest rates moving up, that would put a floor or ceiling on the number of people looking at homes but demand remains robust, so robust that home

prices in the latest month have 20% over a year ago levels, something our next guest saw coming before a lot of other people did. the managing partner, great to have you. i understand the demand for housing is such that people want to get in when the getting is good. they are also facing higher interest rates in that environment. even sellers are putting their homes on the market to take advantage of this. the math is favoring the seller and not the buyer. how long do you see that happening? >> it will take another quarter to see accurate statistics. the stats are always flawed in the sense that interest rates are rising earlier in the year. many people locking in a low interest rate with a 90 day lock which are all the details that are closing at the higher valuations we are accustomed to. the increasing interest rates in the next quarter are more

indicative of the impact on the guy in the housing market. as transactions start to close that went into contract in the last month or two. a significant design in transaction volume but not a significant decline in pricing. it will impact pricing but i don't think it will be a catastrophic measure, it will hurt more than anybody else. neil: it seems likely, stagflation, i don't see it having lived here in that period. i don't see that and i am wondering how you see this playing out. >> i can't imagine rates will continue going in the direction they have been going but for

many sectors of the economy the situation we are in is based on low cost of funds and low cost of debt and the biggest beneficiary of that, the fact that we live in a 2% to 3% interest rate environment for two years. we are talking interest rates, you go back not long ago, 9 months, we were talking rate of 2.6, 2.8%, money was essentially free and the cheap cost of debt is one of the reasons we have robust spike in housing appreciation. you are seeing rates come down slightly in the past couple weeks and at some point we will have to find a happy medium. a healthy environment where money is not essentially free, we are not increasing rates. the more affluent buyer's to making these increases in rates

as opposed to entry-level buyer and it is not going to impact, the rich got richer and the last two years. the increase in rates don't hurt the luxury market. the person who saved every penny to put down 20% where potentially $500 differential in mortgage costs on a monthly basis, prices out of the market entirely. neil: if the market gets hurt how far does this go. how spoiled they become with 2.5% mortgages, that couldn't last and even moving to the levels now seems relatively cheap by a certain age group but leaving that aside, i am wondering how this does affect that end of the market that is trying to get in, barely put the 20% down, might want to turn to adjustable mortgages that themselves have locked in, rising rates.

what do you tell that segment of the market? >> many are in adjustable-rate mortgages, an increase in the last couple years, that happy medium that i'm describing with a lower interest rate but quite honestly this isn't addressed relatively soon, you end up taking a chunk of what would be a homebuyer market and an opportunity to get into the housing market that door may close rapidly if this isn't addressed. neil: the dow is down 500 points, they have been stable the last couple weeks. the federal reserve, back to the races again with much

higher rates but that is the debate. what is much higher or much higher? it would seem to move some rate in the 6% to 7% range. we are not there yet but could be right after this. ♪♪ big game today! everybody ready? alexa, ask buick to start my enclave. starting your buick enclave. i just love our new alexa. dad, it's a buick. i love that new alexa smell. it's a buick. we need snacks for the team. alexa, take us to the nearest grocery store.

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neil: apple is getting a lot of attention not because of new features in its latest operating system which will be out shortly, germanic announcement in the fall of the new iphone and concerns about supply shortages but apple is moving a lot of that capacity from china. to vietnam. we will keep a close eye on that whether vietnam becomes a new hotspot for this manufacturing activity saying nothing of the new market. we are keeping an eye on that. also keeping an eye on the biden administration, pushing a clean environment, clean-air agenda that comes at the expense of fossil fuels but

tiptoeing around the idea of how far you go on restrictions here and opening up these alternatives. kelly o'grady following those developments. >> the biden administration now looking to use wind to tackle the energy crisis. about 8% of california powered by wind farms you see behind me, they are not really moving right now so one of the big issues is wind energy is unreliable. the march 2021 turbines, march 2021, turbines created 44% capacity in july, 23%. that could be problematic when they are prone to rolling blackouts. in addition to those clutch rations wind energy is not as efficient as gas which runs at 62% capacity beating out solar and experts warn leaning too much on developing technology could destabilize the grid.

>> a baseload or reliable energy source, that is the biggest problem. if you are talking 5% of wind energy that is perfect but when you get too high we are running into all kinds of problems with instability in the grid and that kind of thing. >> space is a big issue. i want to show you how big these are. when you have a compact gas line that could produce thousands of megawatts an hour. this means two acres, two to three megawatts and because you need when the environment the requirements mean you can't build these anywhere and when you do transmission lines have to run to where the power is needed and that will be tough with the new proposed leases, they will fit offshore of northern california with the potential to power one million homes. while most experts argue investing in an environmentally

friendly alternative, these aren't going to be, americans are looking to for relief will. >> if there's a cloudy day and there is no wind, the wind power thing isn't going, the solar thing isn't going. it is not that. have we seen these windfarms, and very few are spinning around. kenny polcari, chief market strategist. i would like to get you read on the market today, particularly technology stocks and the first signs that the hiccups are happening. 60 some companies laying off workers, relatively small amount, we've never seen that, better than 16,000 pink slips.

that could be a preview to coming attractions. >> how big the iceberg is. and the next couple months. and a coming hurricane which doesn't slow down, considering i live in florida and it is hurricane season but one way or the other it is coming to fruition the idea that the fed either is behind the 8 ball or lost control, talk about chris wallace's comments talking about getting more aggressive, williams and bollard. it plays into everything i have

been watching happening and expect to happen. neil: higher rates can't get any doubt of that but, slow unwinding of corporate securities that it owned, $9 trillion worth. the process is beginning to get unwound. it is won't in won't be overnight but that trend has not overly rattled the rates over which the federal reserve has any control. i am wondering what that tells you. i'm not minimizing the backup in the 10 year note which is renewed from the last couple trading days but what do you make of that? >> i'm not sure the market knows how to react to it. they have been trying to prepare the market but they are talking about coming to $95 billion a month rolling off and while that might be small and the larger scheme of a $9

trillion balance sheets, we are in a new place we've ever been. i think that will be a concern and start to affect investors psyche as we see how that goes. the market seems to be okay but like anything until it actually happens people don't know what to expect or how they will react. that is the uncertainty that is ahead of us. neil: neil: the fed president saying this fight on inflation is straining the fed's credibility on dealing with inflation. inflation expectations could become onboard without credible fed action. sounds like someone who wants to be pretty aggressive but a delicate balance. >> he has been overly aggressive. last december he talked about a 75 basis point increase.

he has been a vocal aggressive member of the fed. 's comments don't surprise me at all. waters didn't get is aggressive in terms of the size of the move. he was very aggressive, every meeting, big control. the market coming under pressure just because it reinforces the idea the fed has lost the disinflation fight. neil: a good historical sense, i tell young people tell us about inflation when jimmy carter was president and i tell him it was a lot more than it is now. i am not negating the possibility that it could get

bad but i don't see the underlying economy what it was, so how do you see this back-and-forth on stagflation and that is just around the corner. >> i agree with you. in the late 70s and early 80s, the times are very different but my fear is we will go into the wage price spiral type of inflation. wages are forced up and this could potentially take us back to the 1970-80s. i am bracing for the worst and i would be surprised if it doesn't happen. i am bracing for that to happen. if it does i am not going to be ill prepared or unprepared. if it doesn't happen it is a win/win.

neil: you tend to cut your mike when you're not agreeing with me. we will see how that pans out. kenny polcari following the market is only he can. whether this goes back to the 70s, i don't see that happening. i read a prompter for a living. right after this. (vo) while you may not be a pediatric surgeon volunteering your topiary talents at a children's hospital — your life is just as unique. your raymond james financial advisor gets to know you, your passions, and the way you give back. so you can live your life. that's life well planned.

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neil: post the texas school shooting there is progress on a bipartisan reform to make these type of incidents less frequent but the devil is in the details of what they come out with. republicans are open to some sort of gun restriction for some ages, not all but by the

same token democrats, it is all about guns comes saying republicans are on to something, say this is about some mental issues that have to be addressed. enter my next guest, a psychiatrist, for medical director from los angeles with some i guess you could say way overdue type of mental illness address. what do you see happening? >> way overdue before pandemic a venue at a pandemic and way overdue. we are up to 60% of children under the age of 18 needing mental health help before the pandemic and now it is getting higher every week. we 20/70%? obviously that doesn't mean people who are violent but it is a gaping hole in our society, is it not? those with serious mental issues, there is no place to go. >> not only is it becoming a gaping hole to get service but we don't have enough professionals to get service so

there's the whole inequality that is happening as well. neil: where do we go? this is what you do for living, you look at this and are concerned about it and preaching this when nobody wasn't all of a sudden we have another incident like we did in texas last week, and in the buffalo grocery store the week before and on and on, 2 dozen of these attacks that are becoming more and more routine, how would you advise congress to fix this? >> what we have to understand is things like these shooting, these people don't get like this overnight. being able to understand what the red flags are early on, educating people, putting the screenings the need to be in place at schools or doctors offices or wherever, to educate people to see red flags and warning signs before we get close. neil: what are the red flags? youth reports, we generally

don't see put into records, kids do stupid things, we don't want to put that in but you are saying it would do us good to put some of that in so what would you look at? >> i tell people to look at 5 key areas of their life, if you see your child or anybody under the age of 18 who started to not sleep well jump on it. if they are not doing schoolwork jump on it. they are not eating or dealing with their emotions or starting to withdraw or not out with their friends, any change like that you've got to do something quickly. neil: when we had the case of the shooter in texas who didn't show up on anyone's radar, evidence might come forward now that i haven't seen that shows even in youth issues, certainly no one ins with the police issues that came up in the background check how would you

tighten those checks? >> we should not only look at camilla background check but foster care system check to see if the child has been to a place they may have been abused or neglected and those stars -- scars are the start of a person to do this. he was living with his grandmother and there were issues so we are not looking everywhere we can for history. neil: in the case of the florida shooter he was well known by students. when the shots first rang out four years ago many suspected is this guy so kids tend to know more than we do, even the community does. should be here the more? >> many times i have children brought into me for an evaluation because their peers took them to the school administrator saying we are worried he's going to shoot somebody because he talked about it or looks or is angry so we have to hear them. they are on the ground with their peers, they know better than anybody. neil: thank you for looking at

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neil: the media is all abuzz about disarray at the white house, the president tired of his handlers and bar handlers tired of the president, it is a mess. jackie heinrich following it right now and the white house's concerted effort to say they are not adrift. >> that is right. the report had a lot of interesting nuggets from the allegation the president was upset his team didn't brief them on the baby formula shortage until a month ago,

adding to speculation his chief of staff might be on his way out the door but the piece of the report met with immediate pushback from the white house was the allegation the president is upset that his aides often walk back statements that he makes which undermines him and fuels republican criticism that he's not in command. officials say every clarification they have issued came with direct approval from the president but this is haven't on many occasions, most richly when biden was in japan and said the us military would intervene on behalf of taiwan if china attacks. and poland the president asserted a putin would not remain in power and in both of those statements a white house officials with the came out with a statement saying biden was not announcing a change in us policy and the president's critics say none of this is helpful. >> the president's interview said the use aren't gaffes, when he speaks they are truth. the problem is the white house

knows the things he says are wrong, shows incompetence and could put the american people in danger. >> approval ratings have dropped below donald trump's lowest level in the it ministration needs to shift, to quote that report and an assumption baked into biden's candidacy was he was provide over smoothly running administration with decades of experience in public office yet there are signs of managerial breakdown that anger him and his party. house majority whip jim clyburn among those saying the poll numbers have been bad for too long and should not remain there and that is significant from the man whose nomination, whose endorsement propelled biden to the democratic nomination. neil: it is tough when your team is turning on you. my staff does that. i don't know. you are young, it will happen

someday. charlie gasparino, such a mount rushmore iconic figure. no one second guesses what he says. >> you are so full of it. that is all they do is put the genie back in the bottle. did they deny biden's statement that first lady, harris -- they never denied that. maybe there is something to that. neil: you and i can remember when they are underwater in the polls, you hear a lot of sniping. whether that spills into other agencies, what do you see? charles: i can tell you wall street's perspective is it is a

white house in disarray, biden could change his mind often, speaks off-the-cuff, could be a blowhard that says ridiculous things all the time. that is part of the problem when you can't get messaging down you have to work double hard on policy. forasmuch as people talked about saying crazy stuff and changing the news with these crazy tweets the white house ran according -- a lot of democrats telling me, very smoothly. you know what steve mnuchin was doing, they had a clear agenda. you do not have that here. you have fiefdoms, people going off on the deep steagall.

one of them is this guy. gary gansler. there's never been a chairman that veered into more uncharted territories. it is an agency designed to be in investor protection. they disclose their carbon footprint, going after crypto when it is supposed to be the province of the cftc, turn the market structure upside down when there is no need to do that. stocks are trading fine. he's doing crazy stuff. biden doesn't know it and on top of that is a mini mutiny, significant mutiny in the fcc. they lost a dozen people in the enforcement division. it has been described to me as unprecedented, they want to stay at the commission, problems with the sec union.

a lot of people bristling about the workload and going into these obtuse areas for the fcc but also can't stand working for him. i have covered the sec chairman going back to richard in the day. arthur 11 can be tough, mary joe white is tough. republican are democrats. i did not get this, what i am hearing about gary gensler. you don't get the impression the white house knows or cares. neil: two quick things, a verdict has been reached in the johnny depp trial, see what the jury has decided. also we've got the dow down

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neil: an interesting developing regarding china which is conducting the terry exercises, readiness patrol over the skies of taiwan and russia having a field day with division among european leaders as to how much more aid to provide ukraine. there's a possibility the west could lose their resolve here. may be too early to confirm a lot of this but the skittishness is palpable right now. many feel by continuing to aid ukraine into poor good money after bad, won't do anything good. claudia joins us now. what do you think of this? >> reporter: we are on a

difficult trajectory. the bottom line is we need much better leadership. if i can lay out all the problems, you laid out some very well just now but we are not going to get there on the current trajectory. neil: what does that mean for those looking -- out of the eu when it comes to still more sanctions, economic punishments, beyond oil into insurance, banking and all of that are the pieces they are. but some of the sort of wayward countries, turkey comes to mind, not so fast. where is this going? >> an american president and administration trying to run a collectivist global approach to foreign policy. soft power, rash and stopped ukraine to fight the russians

but not necessarily win, that is practically what is going on and it is important. look at the big picture. a lot of similarities to 1980 when the failures of jimmy carter landed us with the islamic revolution in iran, the invasion of afghanistan, trouble cooking all over the world, then came ronald reagan and by this legal of the decade he had started out by winning the cold war. we are in another of these periods when president biden is effectively downsizing the us military, choked off the energy independence we recently enjoyed and trying to maneuver via places like the united nations, the world health organization, to make everybody just follow our example and be good and it is inviting. a rising conglomerate that i would call not an axis of evil

but the conglomerate of evil, there are huge problems with iran's nuclear program. north korea resumed testing missiles, has a nuclear arsenal. china is a serious problem, obliterated through nonmilitary means freedom in hong kong, test run of destroying a free society, first time this happened since world war ii that hong kong has been -- and it is threatening taiwan. xi jinping is building a military to do that. what we need is an america that is militarily strong, has a strong economy and energy independence instead of shopping in venezuela. if that is not happening now, it will fall to whatever leader

is finally willing to do this and can be elected to try to recover a very bad downward spiral. we are in trouble. neil: when you hear the united nations worrying the ukraine wars overshadowing the climate crisis i am beginning to say there is some repositioning going on here. >> the problem is not the climate and dollars discussion of the climate in 50 or hundred years works to the benefit of china which is not actually doing much about the climate, taking territory, globally ambitious and if you want a sample of what this grim new world order is look to the bamboo curtain that has fallen on hong kong where they are not allowed to mourn on june 4th over tiananmen, you will go to prison for doing that. look at the threats to taiwan,

look at the open war in ukraine. that is the taste of where this goes if america does not rally. we need leadership. i don't know exactly where that comes from, but we need someone, not a president who gargles his words and a team that is trying to jointly fix the climate in a century. we have a real crisis building now. we need real leadership. neil: to your point, as frightening as we speak, apologies for jumping on you, we are losing time but we are seeing significant event in the un getting to the point there are other things to worry about too, other countries saying that within nato itself and including the friction about having sweden and finland joined turkey's leader among those saying why now? not too keen on that.

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neil: all right charles payne to take you through the next hour. charles: i'm digging the tide. that covers for two st. patricks day. neil: blame it on money. just work with me, my friend. charles: i'm trying thanks a lot good afternoon, everyone. i'm charles payne this is " making money" and breaking right now, the street trying to figure it all out, we're just, are we just in a bear market rally because we've been warned of that? there are signs that the something bigger and more positive is cooking under the hood, what it all means for your money plus the day has come for the fed. they are going to start winding down that balance sheet and all that liquidity. well, some of