screen. we saw what happened going to the gas stations this weekend. it was unnecessary. we can still fix it at least in my mind. liz claman, back to the last hours of trading, buckle up and hope for the best. white knuckle i think is what we will call it. >> liz: i'm sweating already. >> charles: yeah. >> liz: thank you, charles. >> charles: you got it. >> liz: we have folks a full-fledged fed freakout hitting wall street at this hour after friday's worries over the red hot may consumer inflation number carried across the weekend and all the way into the final hour of trade. could stubbornly high prices push the federal reserve to jack up rates wednesday more than 50 basis point projection? we will look at the wall street fear gauge, volatility index through the roof, up 19% right now at 33. it is up 88% year to date. a lot of concern about what is to come. you want to see concern? look at the dow, s&p, and the

nasdaq. they are all looking at four straight days of losses. you've got the dow jones industrials down 756, low of the session, loss of 899. s&p down 128. the nasdaq down 461. you can see where the russell and the transports are. but within this picture, here's the most specific point, the s&p 500 is in bear market territory right now, down 21% from its record high back on january 3rd. you flip it over to the nasdaq, tech especially anything with sky high valuations that were so cool last year and the year before, all those names are getting kicked to the curb as investors fear tech stocks will be hit the hardest by the federal reserve rate hikes. but it is the small and mid cap russell 2,000 names that are the worst hit of the major indices here. look at the russell, down 4.3%. earlier it was down 5%. so these are names that are truly struggling. we've got an all-star lineup of economists and traders ready to

walk -- run you through the sell-off and tell you how to prepare for a possible fed surprise. bit coin no doubt the disaster of the day. the crypto of record getting swamped by serious selling as investors rush to cash out in some cases to cover big stock losses. bit coin cratering earlier, below 23,000, slightly above that right now. it's instantly dropped below the 1 trillion dollars market cap for the entire crypto market. crypto genius joining us in a fox business exclusive. wait till you hear why he's bullish and where he believes this price needs to go before he's ready to start piling in. we have 58 minutes left of trade. how much worse can this sell off get? right now pretty bad, not the worst of the session, though. we had investors diving for cover immediately dunking the s&p into that bear market at the

open on fears that tomorrow's ppi, the producer price index, which in essence gauges inflation at the manufacturing level will be as hideous or maybe even worse than friday's cpi which showed consumer inflation soaring at the fastest pace in 41 years. now, any loss of more than 63 points on the s&p at the close will solidify the first close in bear territory since the pandemic of february 2020. nasdaq already in bear territory. as you see it at the moment, it is down 32 1/3% off its most recent record. anything with even the slightest of risk is getting tossed in the sale pile. look at the laggards, advanced micro devices, nvidia, one of the favorites of about all of our floor show traders. they love this chip name. today not so much. it is down 7%. you have tesla down 6.7%. now, boeing and sales force, those are the two names that are

really the anchors around the dow's leg. at its lows the blue chips had had fallen about 900 points. right now down 762 points -- make that 741. these numbers are changing quickly. that's why we're keeping our tick by tick eye on each one of these. we will keep you up to speed on just about everything. let's get to boeing. boeing is the major drag on the dow jones industrials, down 9 1/3%. we mentioned bit coin at the top; right? there is an investor exodus out of just about the entire crypto verse. look at ether. it is down 452 bucks. it is well below $1300. we've got [inaudible] coin. it is looking terrible too. we have xrp down 18%. and at the moment, so [inaudible] coin at 5 cents. we look at all of this in the big picture. which is at the heart of this multi-asset sell-off? there is no doubt the federal reserve will vote to raise rates by at least 50 basis points on

wednesday, but now, we've just gotten these fed funds futures numbers in, just in the last couple of minutes. the probability now for 75 basis point cuts continues to grow. it now stands at 31%. this is for wednesday. okay? 75 basis points, 31% odds of that. by the way, on friday, and being the nerd that i am, i kept all of those numbers, but friday that was at 13%. so it's now of course more than double. what does this mean for treasuries? let's get right to it. we've got the two-year and the ten-year yield. the two year is at its highest since 2011. -- 2007, rather. the ten year highest since 2011. they briefly inverted earlier today where the two year was yielding more than the ten year yield. that's a sign of recession possibly coming. but you know what? forget about this. let's get to our floor show traders because the here and now is what matters most. joining us now kenny and scott,

our traders and michelle, great economist. michelle, thank you for joining us. let me talk to you first here, kenny, what metrics are you watching the most closely in the final hour of trade and what are they telling you right now? >> i'm watching the s&p; right? i had 3800 as my target. if you go back and you look in may and april -- april and may, we tested 3800 bounce. we tested again, it bounced. it needed to test it for a third time, but it also needed to hold. we pierced right through it. we traded as low as 3750. we're struggling all day. it's been trying to take it back. my sense is if it fails to take back 3800, as we move into the end of the day, the [inaudible] is going to light up and put more pressure on the market and 3600 is the one that's in sight. that's the one i'm focused on. it is very important. >> liz: when you say out goes, you mean the algorithms or the high frequency -- >> automated trade, to initiate

sell orders. 3800 was identified as technical level in those algorithms. as long as it breaks there and doesn't hold, it will send that signal to keep going. if the market doesn't take it back by, you know, in the next 10 or 15 minutes, i think what you will see is you will see a reignition of more sell orders that will sell it off. >> liz: for those of our listeners in their cars right now, 3767. kenny says in the next 10 or 15 minutes we need to see it get up to 3800. michelle you could arguably pinpoint much of this sell-off and the trigger to it to what happened in the treasury market. way early this morning, we could see the yield curve inverting between the two and the ten year. as we say, that is often seen as some type of recession warning. i'm asking you, right out flat, is a recession now inevitable, michelle? >> well, i've always felt that it was -- you know, inevitable is a very strong word, but i have to tell you, i've felt for

a while it doesn't necessarily have to be a 2022 story but that ultimately if the fed is going to be able to get inflation all the way back down to 2%, it probably needs to slow demand enough that the economy may have to slip into a recession in order to bring supply and demand -- as i said, get the inflation rate all the way back down. i haven't thought it is really a risk this year. i do think there's a good deal still of some momentum supporting the consumer. there's still savings. you still have relatively low debt -- [inaudible]. there are factors here that show the consumer today is not stretched, but boy, when you look at the tightening of financial conditions, you look at the higher level of yield and of course the higher prices that everybody are being forced to pay, you know, it really -- it just suggests to me that at least perhaps some downturn at some point, you know, is starting to look almost inevitable.

>> liz: what do you think is going to happen on wednesday, michelle? do you expect a 75 basis point hike by the federal reserve just to finally douse this inflation in a bigger way, at least? >> well, you know, unfortunately, because they for whatever reason took 75 basis point increase in june, july off the table, to come back now, you know, they are sort of dammed if they do and dammed if they don't, it will look like they had to reverse course, like they are panicked, i just don't know if the fed chooses to just signal that more rate hikes of 50 basis points or more are likely, further into the fall than what they had initially expected. >> liz: okay. we will get to scott now. scott, you could argue this is getting close to an oversold market? i'm not sure. i don't know what you think, but if you were short -- because i know you. you've been shorting some things. if you were short, do you cover those shorts ahead of wednesday

where we could see some type of oversold bounce? >> i feel like last week everyone was looking at that around like 4100 in the s&p, we weren't sure if the oversold bounce would continue or break on thursday. it was lower. that's probably when strategic traders put in some shorts, including me. right here, minus 55, i do think it's a little bit more prudent short-term, you have to cover some of the shorts, but sometimes you get a bounce the day before the fed, where you get a lot of volatility the day of, so at this point, like kenny said before, the 3800 was key. at this point, you know, we broke below it. i do think sometimes they bring it below it, they [inaudible] some shorts and get a little bit of overold bounce. i personally think the corrective stage is not over. at some point this summer we will see the other level of 3600 which is where i think you could put some more longer term money to work, and then wilson's call is 3400 matches up to the 2020

pivot area. [inaudible]. but trading wise, we're on our toes right here because it's a hard spot to buy and a hard spot to short. last week was the major opportunity on thursday to short. >> liz: wilson the morgan stanley calling for 3400. kenny, what are you buying on a day like this, if anything, if you are brave? >> honestly, when it gets to be like this, it is better to sit back. i'm buying nothing as a long-term investor today because when the market gets this anxious like this, it is better to build up a cash position and be patient and wait. it typically take twos or three days after a move -- takes two or three days after a move that we had friday and today to let the markets to see where they stabilize. considering what's happening tomorrow ppi and wednesday fomc, i'm happy to sit back and watch the action. >> liz: michelle, before we go, we have a strong labor market. may jobs came in with a gain of

390,000, but there are a whole host of companies that have started to freeze or slow down hiring. we're talking about everyone from meta. meta by the way down 50% year to date. you've got sales force, netflix, all names that have said you know what? we're going to slow down or pause hiring, carvana, robin hood, tesla, microsoft, nvidia, lyft, snap, are you worried we will start to see sort of a retraction when it comes to job creation or at least a market slowdown. >> you can see it would be prudent. we're all debating about the possibility of a recession, being inevitable. with the outlook for demand so uncertain, it's prudent for ceos to just take a pause and wait and see until there's more clarity whether or not it makes sense to be adding, you know, more workers or to be investing in new equipment. i think the other thing to think about, though, is it's one thing to pause and have a hiring freeze, do we actually see, you know, companies start to shed

workers? they were so desperate when things were good to find those workers, having gotten them, i'm not sure we will see layoffs, but it seems like a pretty easy step to at least pause on the hiring. >> liz: michelle, thank you. scott, kenny, as always, we appreciate it. check the dow right now down 813. the nasdaq down 488. the crypto collapse is kind of unfolding before our eyes. bitcoin, ethereum, light coin all of them falling through support levels. as investors rush for the exit, at least two crypto exchanges halt withdrawals. despite the crisis selling, one of bitcoin's top voices now says a generational bitcoin buying opportunity is close. he makes his case right here next. 47 minutes away before the closing bell rings. the claman countdown is watching every single tick of just about all. we do have the vix increasing the fear number here, up 20% at the moment. we started up 18%. we are coming right back.

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>> liz: got to get the crypto currencies which are in the midst of a meltdown.

bitcoin nose diving below 23,000 this morning. right now hovering just above 23,000 at 23,271. its lowest since december of 2020. ethereum has lost two thirds of its value this year. we have ether down 457 points. that's a loss of 27%. light coin xrp, they are getting stampeded here. the value of the entire crypto market has now fallen below 1 trillion dollars. now, the crypto collapse arguably started over the weekend, but seriously accelerated sunday when digital currency lending company celsius network froze all withdrawals and trance transforms on -- transforms on the platform due to what it called extreme conditions. it caused a domino effect. the world's largest crypto exchange suddenly blocked all

bitcoin withdrawals for about an hour. the ceo said that the pause was caused by a quote stuck transaction which triggered a backlog on the network. now, this is the crypto universe, right, contagion darkened immediately at the open. micro strategy whose ceo is a huge crypto investor is taking a beating right now, down 28.6%. the company has lost 1 billion dollars over its nearly 130,000 bitcoin bet and is down 70% year to date. coin base, this is the largest crypto trading platform in the u.s. fell as low as $46. it is at 50 and change now, but still down 13%. we've got bitcoin marathon and digital holders, block chain plunging in the red. one of bitcoin's biggest names says we're not there yet, but he believes we are getting close to a, quote, generational buying opportunity. joining me now in a fox business exclusive, pomp investments

anthony pompliano. let me get to this, what do you believe is at the heart of this sell-off? >> yeah, it's very obvious that the federal reserve is in control right now. in many cases all assets are just one big tray at the moment. if you take a look, going all the way back to the beginning of 2020, going back to january 1, 2020, with hindsight kind of on your side, and you could buy any asset. you would have bought bitcoin. it outperformed stocks bonds, real estate, commodities other currencies etc. but that doesn't mean that it is in any way insulated from the macro environment. what we're watching right now is the transfer of bitcoin from weak short-term oriented people with weak hands into the long-term oriented strong hands. you see that on chain with the various wallet metrics but also see it with a lot of wall street firms seeming to dump bitcoin that they got into the last over 8 to 12 months and you see a lot of the people who have been around for a long time saying hey, i've been here before.

i've seen this happen. and i got a really long time horizon, and this is really attractive to me. >> liz: let me drill down here. the institutional guys along with some of the marginal people, you know, people on the side who had a couple of bitcoins, they are getting extremely anxious or maybe, pomp, they are driven by the fact that they have lost a lot of money in the stock market, and they need to raise cash and they are doing it by exiting bitcoin. >> i think there's two ways to look at this; right? first, if you look at the institutional folks, bitcoin began to get institutionalized, and bitcoin is the riskiest thing in their portfolio. and so if they are going to go risk off, they sell bitcoin. and they happen to have a lot of bitcoin. they have a lot of money in their portfolios. bitcoin started to dump just like every other risk asset went down as well in the last eight months. one of the things to pay attention to and i think a lot of people who are a lot of bitcoin native, been around for a while, we are watching a divergence. price and value are decoupling

right now. price is down from $69,000 high in november, down to around $23,000 today. but [inaudible] hit all-time high today. the bit coyne network has never -- bitcoin network has never been more secure than it is today. taking a look at the bit coin wallet addresses, .01 bit coin, .1 bit coin in them, hitting all-time high. and the networking capacity is hitting all time. decoupling as the fundamentals continue to hit all-time highs and strengthen while price is falling. i think at some point fundamentals and kind of the value of bitcoin will meet price, but the question is where and when that happens. >> liz: they will meet is what you are saying. a bit of worrisome news from a crypto exchange and wallet company, they have this interest bearing accounts, they announced this they are trimming their headcount by 20%. they said it would basically affect everybody at the company. this is all a lot of bad news k

and that said, you feel we are getting close to a buying opportunity, at least in bitcoin? we're at 23,187. talk to somebody who is skeptical here. >> i think there's two different things. there's bitcoin, and there's the equities in the industry. i don't want to comment specifically on the business i'm an investor in. these are still businesses where there's cash flows and balance sheets and they have to run businesses for the long-term. so naturally as you head towards what many people deem to be a bad time in the macro economic environment, you are going to get folks looking and saying how do we shore up our balance sheet? how do we get to profitability? that's not a bit coin or crypto thing, that's all of industry. when it comes to bitcoin specifically, i think the value investor framework is being applied to bitcoin by bitcoin. that puts a lot of the legacy finance folks, their heads go into a blender when that occurs. you take the timeless principles. warren buffett, buy great assets

and hold them forever. >> liz: what's the price where you will say it is a generational buying opportunity? >> historically when bitcoin trades below the realized price, or the on chain cost basis, that tends to be a pretty good chance. we're there now. who knows how much lower it could go, or go sideways or has a strong recovery? there's a lot of bitcoiners who are saying i'm buying an asset where the price has dislocated from the value or the fundamentals, just like those value investors would do that with traditional businesses, the bitcoiners are salivating right now. you see them gobbling up as much bitcoin as possible. >> liz: not moving the price though. dramatically lower at the moment. as we continue to watch all of this and more, we have bitcoin down about 20.6%. anthony, great to see you. thank you for coming on a very major news day, especially in the crypto space. >> thanks for having me, liz. >> liz: anthony pompliano. travel stocks hitting major turbulence in the sell-off.

the hotel, airline, and cruise etf, ticker symbol c ruz tumbling. that's at a 52 week low. all the news is not bad for travelers. we will take you straight to newark international airport as covid testing restrictions finally get relaxed for those coming into this country. 36 minutes away from the closing bell. we will show you the airlines coming up and much more.

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>> liz: if there is a message coming from travel booking stocks, it could be the consumers might just kick the vacations to the curb, if the country tips into a recession. that's a big if. we don't know if it is going to, but look at expedia, at $106.45, it's just a little above the 52 week low it hit earlier of 105. air bnb, expedia, trip advisor,

booking holdings getting slammed. trip advisor down 10%. the airline stocks are losing altitude. southwest, dell tashg united, jet -- delta, united, jetblue, american, earlier it was united that looked horrific along with jetblue, 10% loss here. hotels sliding marriott, hilton, hyatte, wyndham. cruise liners, carnival, royal caribbean, norwegian down 10 to 12 percent. norwegian down nearly 13%. the sell-off comes as the industry was finding its footing again and getting some good news. covid testing for international travelers entering the u.s. expired yesterday morning. let's go live to madison at newark liberty international

airport and find out how that's being received and how things are going. madison? >> it is great news for travelers coming in from international destinations. the bad news, as you can very clearly tell is that i lost my voice this past weekend at my college re union, but i saw some international friends there. they had to get the test because this rule only went into effect yesterday. so all the travelers behind me who have flown in from international destinations, this is the international terminal here at newark, none of them needed to get that test, within a 24 hour period. it alleviates a ton of stress and honestly travel industry experts are hoping this will mean more people will be traveling. a lot of experts in the travel industry as well as political leaders from major city hubs in the united states really pushed for this change because it's been slow to see those international travelers come back. i want to show you some of the numbers of what we're talking about. you know, it was founded by the

u.s. travel association -- it was found by the u.s. travel association that 54% of foreign travelers were avoiding travel to the united states because of the testing requirements here. those people coming back should really help with domestic recovery. >> the most important things we have is people come to the united states and feel good about america and americans. we project that lifting this one-day pre-departure testing requirement will have an impact of 5.4 million visitors and over 9 billion dollars to the u.s. economy by the end of the year. >> you know, this could not be coming at a more expensive time for the average traveler. that might as you were kind of alluding to earlier have an impact on whether or not people even want to travel because if you take a look at the prices, hotels are up over 22% in the u.s. year over year. air fare soaring. that's up over 37% year over year. and not all covid restrictions

have been lifted. if you are traveling into the u.s. as a non-citizen, you still have to show proof of vaccination in order to be let into the country. and just like with anything with the cdc, they have left the door open to revise this rule. so if in 90 days, there's another spike in cases, it might come back, but for now this is a huge relief for travelers that already have trips and for people who have been waiting to come and didn't want to get stuck in the united states. liz? >> liz: a big relief certainly. madison, great work. thank you very much. we need to just quickly look at the markets here. we just hit session lows one minutes ago. the nasdaq dropping the most. the dow inching close to a 1,000 point drop. we do have the dow down 948. s&p losing 155. kenny warned you; right? he said you got to watch out, if we don't take that 3800 level, which we're not, the algorithms -- the electronic trading will kick in, and we might see more acceleration to

the down side. that appears to be at least at the moment what we are seeing. although you never know. the nasdaq hitting a fresh session low, down 534 points. so as we watch all of this, we need to, you know, madison was just talking about the travel names. didn't get to the casino names. casino names, particularly those with exposure to china's gambling mecca of macau are swooning down about 8 or 9d percent. -- 8 or 9 percent. there is another flare up of covid cases in the region. the numbers do remain in the low 100s. while investors were hoping the local government would markedly short the 14-day quarantine period, it has not. and that's why those stocks are down. digital world acquisition corp., can we look at this? this will reverse merge with former president trump's social media app truth social. it is falling down 13% after disclosing that the securities and exchange commission has expanded its probe of the

company. regulators started the investigation into it last year. it's not into trump's company. it's now issued a new subpoena seeking additional information which may delay its merger with trump media and technology group. charles schwab has settled charges that the firm's robo advised funds misled clients about the returns they would get on their portfolios. federal regulators say schwab agreed to pay 187 million dollars to clients to resolve the case. the sec says schwab's robo advisor portfolio kept up to 29% of the cash from those portfolios instead of investing in stocks or other securities as they had promised they would. schwab shares down 3%. and revlon stock hitting a another record low, $1.08. it is about $1.09 right now, continuing the tumble that began friday after the "wall street journal" reported the cosmetics

maker is planning to file for chapter 11 bankruptcy, possibly as soon as this week. the journal says revlon's debt stands at 3.3 billion dollars, and the company has engaged in restructuring negotiations with lenders ahead of the debt maturities to try and push out the due dates. but at the moment, revlon down 47%. all that glitters isn't gold. it's actually green, as in the u.s. dollar. the dollar is at 20-year highs, while gold, the ultimate safe haven caught up in today's sell-off. but the greenback hitting those multidecade highs. economist and a mega investor are up next at better places rather than under the mattress where they say you should put your stronger dollars on a day like today. we are 26 minute ace way from the closing -- 20 minutes away from the closing. we are at 3754 on the s&p. the nasdaq down 519, below

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rest of the interest rate world, then you start to see pullback if how many people originate mortgages. we do see that lennar and nvr are hitting 52 week lows at the moment. let's get you the fox market alert. even the safe havens aren't safe in the market sell off. precious metals pretty much a mess. we have gold down about 2.7%. palladium, this of course is a very much an auto play, the substance that makes catalytic converts convert down 6.7%. they are getting tarnished as the u.s. dollar strengthens on bets for steeper interest rate hikes. let's look at the goldminers because a lot of you may own those versus physical gold. we have a lot of red on the screen here. laggard here is anglo gold down about 8.7%. u.s. dollar index, it hit a multidecade high, two decade high; right? it's become the safe haven de jure. the greenback muscling. what to do right now.

let's bring in a chief investment officer, 631 billion in assets under management and wilmington trust chief economist luke tilly. luke, okay, interest rates, what are you expecting on wednesday because that really comes to the heart of why we're seeing such a dramatic sell-off? >> yeah, liz, as you said, investors increasingly pricing in the chance of 75 basis point hike. we don't think that that is the case. we think they will go with 50, but with a strong suggestion that 75 basis point hikes are on the table in the future. really what's at play here is the fed doesn't like to surprise markets, and what powell having stated a couple of months ago previous meetings that they weren't thinking about 75 basis point hikes, he wouldn't want to surprise the markets. however, that expectation also hinges on how inflation unfolds, and we saw the inflation numbers. we know that it's running hot. so they could go with a 75 basis point hike. we think it is a bit of a toss-up, more likely to get 50. i think the important thing is

the communication. the fed operates so much more with communication. they've already pushed the two year so much higher. 250 basis points since they got hawkish. they pushed long term rates higher, and a lot of that is through communication. we know they have that as a tool. we expect them to use that. >> liz: got within 9 points of the dow dropping about a thousand points. steve, talk to me about what you feel is a real opportunity here. i remember tat lows in march -- at the lows in march, at the lockdown lows of 2020, you said it is time to ladder in. don't go nuts, but ladder in. where are you laddering in right now? >> we're still staying defensive here, liz, in really the defensive dividends which are paying solid dividends above treasury yields and some of the cheapest [inaudible] in the market. >> liz: such as? >> -- on companies that sell things people need, not what they want, kimberly clark, exxon, you know, sells oil, you

know, stocks in that level, staples, tobacco companies, things that people need. if you want a leg in to something a little more aggressive, i would start to look at the banks, but, you know, it still depends on are we going to tilt into a rocky landing which is at least what we're in now into recession. i think you can leg in a little bit at a time, but we're holding cash back. we've been defensive, overweight cash and dividend stocks and kind of get paid to wait. you know, the market we think is getting close to fair value, but it could easily plum 2 or 300 points lower the next few weeks. you don't want to get too aggressive. >> liz: trying to find a bottom here, but can't quite do it at the moment. we've spread everything along the ticker and the bug on the lower right hand. we have the big board. we do have the dow down 976. luke, it's easy to say the fed

was well behind the curve. but now it looks a little bit frightening considering they had an opportunity to start raising rates much earlier than they did, and now we're stuck in this position, with the war in ukraine. we have the supply chain problems. and of course wages rising. what's your biggest worry here about what happens next in the u.s. economy? we have the first quarter gdp print where we saw a retraction, right? we did contract. and so i'm wondering, you know, do you expect a contraction for the month of june -- i mean for the second quarter, rather? >> yeah, i think it's important -- you make a good point. i think it is important to remember that it was really weak exports that pulled us so far into the red in the first quarter that businesses were still spending very strongly and so were consumers. we'll get a little more indication on how domestic consumers are doing later this week with retail sales. but we know that jobs are being added. wages are high, but are decelerating closer back to normal with so many people

moving back into the labor force. so we are concerned about some weak gdp numbers going forward. i think my biggest concerns are, one, that the commodity prices, oil prices, and especially food prices are going to weigh so much on the consumer, domestic and international, that it's going to pull spending away from the other categories, and then also we do expect inflation to slow as we go forward, and if the fed overtightens ahead of that, then that could accelerate the problem. we think we are facing those risks going forward, and they stem from commodities. they stem from the fed. they create challenges for that so-called soft landing that people are looking for. >> liz: steve -- >> but we still do expect growth this year. >> liz: steve, he's right. i mean, we're looking at crazy [inaudible] why not invest in some of those names. you know people have to eat >> right. that's where we're staying, liz. i would add that in the last several years, we've always worried about, you know,

economic slowdowns, earnings, recessions, this time around could be more of an economic recession and earnings slowdown. we have nominal revenue growth in the economy and corporate america is probably going to be 7 to 9 percent this year. even if there were a real recession. so with that, even with margin pressure, you can hang in there with earnings. that's why i think if you stick with the companies, selling things people need, not what they want, you're going to do okay here until things get better, but it is probably a little bit early to get more aggressive than that right now. >> liz: that's what we have been saying here for the past few weeks. go for what you need, not what you want. i just want to let our viewers know, we're going to kill all commercial breaks between now and the top of the hour because we are looking a little shakier here at the moment, the dow is still down 939, off the lows of the session. the nasdaq down 4.6%. luke, where do you see green chutes when it comes to

opportunities on the globe? >> yeah, well, we definitely think that some of the risks are around europe of course because of russia and ukraine and the emerging world is also facing a lot of challenges because of commodity pressures. you've been mentioning the movement up in the dollar. that really poses challenges for the national economies and equities. the central banks need to raise rates. what we're really watching for right now is an opportunity to redeploy in equities. i think more likely in the u.s., but we'd be looking for opportunities internationally as well because at some point, this is going to bottom out, where you are going to see resistance at the bottom, even if there's a recession, we expect it would be a mild one, pretty mild for consumers, if you think back to 2000, 2001, that was an equity market and cap ex recession. consumers kept spending throughout that. a lot on more of what you need rather than what you want. but at the levels we're at right

now, there's definitely room for it to move back down, but we don't think that we're looking at a collapse like we had in equity markets in 2008 or 9, so i think that there will be opportunities and the market is trying to find the bottom. >> liz: yeah, definitely. i'm pretty amazed because this morning i noted that the ten-year yield was at 3.23%. and right now we do have it at 3.38%. just a minute ago, it was at 3.5%. but very interesting moves here. buckle up, everybody. thank you, gentlemen, luke and steve, we appreciate you coming on. market 10 minutes to go before the closing bell rings. the automakers, can we check on those? they are hitting the skids at this hour. gm, ford, and honda all hitting brand new 52 week lows. you will note that tesla is down 7 1/2%, but it is not at a 52 week low. gm, let's see and honda as you can see down about 2.9%. the real laggard here, ford and

gm down 7% a piece. the price of oil topping $120 a barrel earlier and is still there as we see in the aftermarket session. tight global supplies, outweighing fears that demand would be suppressed by a sudden spike in covid-19 cases in china, but can we look at an intraday of crude? i say this because it was well below the flat line earlier, and then it peeked its head up just around noon. you can see the dow jones industrials now down 1005 points. we can see an acceleration in the losses here. energy by the way is the biggest laggard when it comes to the sectors. we do have news crossing just moments ago that u.s. oil output from top shale regions such as the [inaudible] and shale area is set to rise in july to the highest level since november of 2020. that's not going to help the price of gasoline in the short-term, but the national average currently sitting at a

never before seen record of $5 per gallon. that's the national average. nothing compared to what californians are paying at the pump. but let's get to kelly o'grady live in l.a. yes, we have sky high prices that drivers obviously are forced to pay to fill up their tanks, kelly, but demand destruction, it looked like we were there this morning and then of course crude got up off the bottom. >> yeah, absolutely. i mean, you mentioned the national average, right, $5 a gallon. clearly that would be a relief here. you know, you can see 6.89 over my shoulder. and the state average for california, that's $6.43, it's just in time as you said right demand for summer travel, the expectation to get back to work. now, of course records are nothing new, right, 34 of the last 35 days we have seen record highs across the country. the national average for gas is now 15 cents higher than last week. $1.93 increase from what you were paying a year ago. let's put that into context. a toyota camry, the national

average a year ago would cost you $49 to fill up, now it is $80. liz, look at this here, i mean, what, 10 gallons, that's roughly two thirds of a toyota camry. i want to show you what it might look like to fill up a ford lightning -- f-150, rather. $175 for 25 gallons of gas. we spoke to drivers here, and they are extremely frustrated and starting to change their habits. >> when is it going to end? you know what i mean? it's a lot to take in, but you have to get it. >> definitely it comes into play every single day. do i want to drive to the beach now? or am i going to stay put? >> had to turn down jobs that are in simi valley and stuff like that because i can't afford the gas money. i would end up making just enough to cover the gas money essentially. >> this is likely to get worse. many analysts predicting oil will top $150 a barrel this year, and in the 120 to 150 range, folks are predicting a

recession. right now it's roughly about 120. last time i checked. but i did want to highlight diesel as well. i mean we already have a truck driver shortage that's impacting the supply chain. i mean, you can see 7.27 for diesel, imagine filling up a 300 gallon tank. that's why your groceries are costing more, liz. >> liz: that's why there's a wait list for the all electric ford f-150 lightning, all electric because these prices are getting absolutely crazy, in the orbit here. kelly, thank you. check the dow jones, again, we did just fall more than a thousand points. let me just say, yeah, the low of the session was a loss of 1019 points for the dow. we're just off that now. so we're down 928. the s&p looks to close in bear market territory. and if we can look, yeah, it is down about -- let's call it 22% since its january high for the s&p 500. the nasdaq down 4.7%. now, remember, let's rewind.

friday we got may's consumer price index, inflation at the consumer level. tomorrow, the may ppi, the producer price index or manufacturers index on inflation. it could be the key to the federal reserve jacking up rates higher than the 50 basis point increase that's been widely telegraphed by jerome powell and company. here is the expectation that may -- well actually that's for the cpi. let's look at ppi, the estimate here, up 10.9%. 8:30 a.m. the number comes out tomorrow. core, that excludes the often volatile food and energy, up 8.6%. what if the fed looks at that 10, nearly 11 percent handle and says 75 basis points, we need to increase the fed funds rate there. let's bring in today's countdown closers with five minutes left to trade. we have ceo dory wiley and head

of integrated equity ernesto ramos, 699 billion dollars in assets. ernesto, i will begin with you, what if, what happens with the >> so i think there is a good chance they want to front end the 75 basis points. they said they would do, market is pricing in they will do 50 now, a in july. why not front 75 now, give market confidence that they are determined about killing inflation. right now the market is trying to thread the needle between higher inflation and recession and i think the fed has to get in front of the curve with respect to that. so it would be great if they would front 75 basis points. liz: you're not worried ernesto, that the markets would completely freak out? let's say they did, saw even bigger selling pressure than

we've seen today, what would you be buying in that case? >> well, two separate questions. i think market would see a sign of relief. they can always take it back and not do 50 at the next meeting if the, if inflation starts coming down in fact. what we're buying, what we have been buying for the last few months is lower risk, profitable, companies with solid business models because we're in an environment where demand has to be destroyed in order to bring inflation down. liz: yeah. >> you don't want to be long the consumer the day the consumer starts to get completely annihilated. you don't want to be long duration stocks. those have been quite crushed. , low risk, profitable, that is what we're buying in sectors such as bio farm that. energy has own dynamics. they're strong as well as, those

are two sectors we like. liz: yeah, biopharma has certainly gotten beaten down. it is getting slammed today. dory, you like energy. energy has very strange behavior today. as we mentioned crude oil began to plummet along with the energy complex. a couple of hours into trade it peaked its head up a couple cents, turned into the green. we can't stay there at the moment. what names, what type of energy in the subsector do you like? >> first of all i wouldn't get hung up whether energy is going up or down today fundamentally. markets crashed because they're oversold, not because they're overvalued. because we were getting close to a crash scenario today and officially in a bear market. i expect it to continue. i think investors ought to be wary. energy is only place where analysts are upping estimates where they have a chance of

hitting their forecasts. hitting something like pioneer, where the limitations of the administration and government policies are not as effective. permian, they dominate the permian. the dividend flows are huge there. that is a great stock to own as well as chevron. there is a beta play obviously in most of these energy stocks but my favorite is pioneer. liz: i do have to say though, ernesto, dory has been on the right side of this because energy has been the winner. today it is the loser here but in the macro picture where do you see the markets going for the rest of the summer? choppy trading, kind of plateauing? >> until we see a couple or three sequential month to month cpi prints going lower i think it will be super choppy, super volatile. as the market sees those three

sequential month on month declines they will start pricing in the end of tightening that will be when the market can lift off again. liz: earn knows toe, dory, in final few minutes you guys brought it. [closing bell rings] s&p fish i enters in bear market territory. all three major indices at 52 week lows. ♪. larry: hello, everyone, welcome to "kudlow," i'm larry kudlow. during the war of 1812 an american naval camo commodore defending lake erie reported to general henry harrison. i will quote, we have met the enemy and they are ours. those words spoken by oliver hazard perry. he was