the man who flew from america to paris non-stop, first guy to do that he was "time"'s "person of the year" in 1927. i'm guessing right after he actually made that flight. he was quite a celebrity in his day. ashley, great show today. thank you for all you do. my time is up. look who is here now, neil cavuto. it's yours. neil: you got the first interview with lindbergh if memory serves me right. stuart: absolutely. neil: you and i can go back and forth on this thing until the cows come home. stuart: why not. neil: thank you, stuart. big slide in stocks right now. we're keeping a close eye what the two-year note is doing, 10-year note is doing. suffice it they're backing up a lot. the two-year is getting close to what the 10-year is. yesterday they were going back and forth. the fact of the matter looking at those securities they have

gone prohibitively higher. most expect that to continue, particularly two year note which mimics expectations what the federal reserve will do. they wrap up the big meeting tomorrow. we're expecting them to hike rates at least half a point. i do look at the fed fund futures contracts. i don't know how much stock you put in them. last week at this time, 3% of respondents were saying that they hike more than half a point. maybe as much as 75 basis points. 3/4 of a point. betting close to 40% we'll see that tomorrow. 3/4 of a rate hike that would be very, very unusual. depending how you read things. it would look alarmist to some. fed getting ahead of the curve to others. backdrop of the president of the united states is trying to put the entire economy in perspective. addressing a big union group today, reminding them the underlying economy is just fine, thank you. i don't know whether everyone in

the room was buying that but edward lawrence with more from the white house. reporter: like "the lego movie" where they say everything is awesome. president touting his economy, talking about how strong he made this rebound in this economy even though we have inflation at 40 year highs and producer price index putting more pressure, upward pressure on that inflation. in fact, you have some targeted probabilities here. cme group is saying specifically this with 94% certainty the cme group believes that federal reserve will raise rate 75 basis points with inflation mounting. experts question whether this can be fixed without a recession. morgan stanley ceo latest to warn of recession. he says there is a 50/50 chance of a recession. if you listen to president biden his economy is booming. listen to this moments ago. president biden: under my plan for the economy we made extraordinary progress and put america in a position to tackle the worldwide problems that is worse everywhere but here,

inflation. reporter: but that is not actually true. we have higher inflation than france, japan, germany, china, just to name a few of the large economies around the world. so the republicans say with a little, a little different take on all of this, now that the president announced he is going to saudi arabia after asking the saudis for more oil. the republicans believe, well, maybe he should look at texas and oklahoma? >> doing the same thing over and over expecting a different result, 100% definition of insanity but we know especially in washington, d.c., common sense isn't common. i may only have a minor in economicking but economics 101, the more the government spends the less we the people get to keep in our pockets. reporter: the president now on his way back to the white house. all the people in the room will have to fill up trucks and cars and go home and see high record gas prices. neil: edward lawrence thank you

very much. jackie deangelis, first of all thanks for stepping in yesterday. i caught you on fox business a little bit what the president is saying presenting what americans are feeling, there is a bit of a gap, isn't there? reporter: sure is, neil. let's start where we are, we're seeing mixed action following days of unrelenting selling. investors are looking for cover now, yesterday marked 120 days since the 2022 selloff started. when we look at stocks year-to-date, it is a grim picture, neil. the s&p 500 now in bear market territory. 20% drop from the most recent high. the dow is down 16%. the nasdaq is down roughly 30%. if you looked at your 401(k), your pension plan it looks ugly but for investors looking for the bottom of the downturn there still may be room for stocks to fall, if you have time, that is on your side. not everybody has that luxury. let's take a look what history tells us. in early 2,000 the nasdaq took a fast and deep plunge, if you

remember, down by 37% within 52 days from march to may and then it experienced a period of rebound but that was due to the technology boom. very different circumstance than what's happening here right now. back in 2008 during the financial crisis s&p 500 fell 46% from october 2007 to march of 2009 but it did recover all those losses by march of 2013. that is where time comes in. the dow hit the lowest point, 54% below the peak in march of twine as well. it took four years to fully recover from that. that was the result of the housing bubble and overleveraging at banks. different scenario again from what we have today. the issue this time of course is that incessant government spending, it does lead to persistent inflation. it is at a 40-year high. we're feeling that right now. this morning edward mentioned producer prices up 10.8%. what that means producers pass off higher costs to you and me.

gasoline at an average of five dollars, historical high there. tech companies warning of hiring freezes and layoffs and target and walmart, those bad earnings report, a barometer what is happening out there. there is the big question, of course are we headed for recession? some would say we're there right now. it would take technically another quarter of negative gdp growth. given how the economy looks, neil, more likely than not at this point, to the president's comments earlier in philadelphia, it seems that he is out of touch with reality. a lot of those union workers do have invests in pensions and 401(k)s. they do have trouble putting food on the table and filling up the tank right now. so we're in tough times right now. neil: yeah. that is probably an understatement. jackie, thank you very much for that. by the way we told you a little bit about the two-day fed meeting going on, wraps up tomorrow, for what it is worth, top economist at jpmorgan, goldman sachs are among those saying given what is going on with inflationary run-up, wholesale inflation running at

record clip, better than 10%, that the fed will raise rates by 3/4 of a point tomorrow. that would be the highest such hike or the biggest hike i should say in 28 years. kenny polcari on that, slatestone wealth chief market strategist. kenny, first of all on that possibility, you know we went from thinking 50 basis points, 50 basis points, one meeting after another and now the possibility that 3/4 of a point tomorrow. are you in that crowd, the 3/4 point crowd? >> i was in the 1% crowd. neil: right. >> i thought the fed needed to shock the system back in march and they didn't do it. i thought they continued to fall behind the eight ball with every meeting that they don't do something more drastic. am i in the camp? i'm absolutely in the camp. am i excited about being in that camp? not really. my sense they're so far behind,

they're losing credibility, i think this move almost screams of desper operation. it seems, we're admitting we so missed it, now, we have been promising everyone 50 basis points, got it under control, nothing to worry about. now going two days before when they make the announcement yesterday in "the wall street journal." somebody spoke to the "journal" over the weekend, leaked the information. i think they have to do it. quite honestly i think they have to do it again in july. neil: the market would be jarred by that, maybe not a response the fed would welcome. they realize this is such a problem they have to get ahead of it. again to your point, kenny, i'm beginning to wonder whether they can? we get back to the concern about capitulation, at which point investors say the hell with it. i'm so out of here. we mouth h thought yesterday might be that day. apparently it wasn't and isn't yet. where are we are on the whole quitting crowd, usually,

usually -- >> so in my opinion it is, you can feel it. it's coming, right? but there needs to be that day where like you said, people just completely disgusted they're throwing everything out including the kitchen sink. you will know that by the speed which is happens, right? i don't think we're they're yet but i think we're getting close. i think yesterday's reaction in the market was confusion over 50, 75, is it 50. why is it suddenly 75. what do they know? oh, my god, people having that kind of reaction which was exactly the fed trying to prevent, leaking information, to put it out there. the market had 48 hours to discuss it, get a little bit more comfortable with it. one way or the other i think more downside to go. 3800 my target for s&p. hoping it tested there for the third time yesterday after april april and may. it failed significantly and failure of technical levels.

algos, broke the technical level. algos will go into the more selling mode. the buyers will pull back because they see the same information. so i suspect there will be more downside. neil: let me ask a little bit about the tone here. if the federal reserve raises rates 3/4 of a point, maybe maintains such an aggressive posture for every meeting thereafter, that overnight bank lending rate could be at 4% or higher by the end of the year. >> yeah. neil: it is fool's game where we end the year, let alone a month on rates but then what? >> so i think it is, i think we're somewhere between 3 1/2 and 4% if the macro data continues to be as strong. if there is no relief at all i absolutely think we'll be somewhere between 3 1/2, 4% rate. if inflation remains elevated at eight 1/2, 9%, some people think it is already at 10% no matter what the government says but if it remains elevated, doesn't respond, doesn't come in, rates

will continue to rise in 2024. i suspect that will happen anyway. last time we were on, you and i both lived it, early '70s, early '80s. inflation was very stubborn, didn't come down until the fed got aggressive, which jammed us into an ugly recession but ultimately had to happen. neil: we forget took almost two years to do that. raising rates often times one point at a time, but even with that aggressive approach it took years before we saw inflation getting under control. sew that is kind of scary in of itself. kenny, thank you very, very much. couple other things we're watching too. you hear about margin calls, people who have bought stock, borrowing against assets that they have already in stock, margin calls typically happen when that gets to reach about 50% or less. a lot of people are on the precipice of that, they have to pony up the cash to make up for that percentage fall off or sell

some more stock. that feeds the proverbial beast. that was a big feature of the 87 stock market fall i don't have. we're not quite there yet but that is a level which people are getting close where they would have to sell some securities or add cash. people are short on cash these days. so that would continue selling securities. it's a phenomena gnaw right now with the cryptocurrency that is exchange which you trade cryptocurrencies and crypto related assets allows you to sell in the first place. one big player does not, after this. ♪.

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♪ ♪ how's he still playin'? aspercreme arthritis. full prescription-strength. reduces inflammation. don't touch my piano. kick pain in the aspercreme. ♪. neil: all right. the craze continues but not in a good way for cryptocurrencies. luna, coinbase a big market for buying, selling, a lot of these securities is going to be laying off a good number of workers, about 1100 workers to be precise and then the online lender celsius continues to suspend withdrawals. like the new york

stock exchange, or nasdaq, you know what? do not sell any of those stocks, technology stocks or otherwise, refusing to do so. so it is adding to the alarm. a lot of people are rushing to the exits to find one way to do that. these measures do not exactly feed confidence into the market. susan li is following all of this closely. what is the lacest? reporter: you're right a panic in the cryptocurrency markets with the crypto a third what it was worth back in november when we hit the record levels. falling prices means less jobs available. we heard that today from the largest crypto exchange, coinbase. ceo brian armstrong. made a difficult decision to reduce the size of the team by aren't 18 percent. the broader market downturn means we need to be mindful of costs as we head into potential recession. armstrong talked about a crypto winter, which means crypto prices will be deflated for quite some time.

coinbase joins other companies cutting jobs. block by, a celsius competitor, chopping workforce 20%. crypto.com laying off 5%. the winkelvoss twins, their company gemini cutting 10% of their staff. interesting conversely i was speaking to one of the largest crypto exchanges ftx in austin at consensus founded by 30-year-old billionaire sam blakeman, the crypto emperor by "the new york times" that they're not freezing or cutting jobs at this point? >> we've been able to weather a storm of crypto prices going down, public market prices going down. we're continuing to expand. we're looking to hire. potential sources of acquisition or other investments across the state. we're able to do that even in times like this. reporter: depend you raise cash, how much cash you have in the bank. crypto confidence has obviously been shaken by the sill sy just

blow it up one of largest crypto lenders. they're pausing withdrawals, transfers and swaps. we're looking for a bank run on celsius right now. there are concerns about who is next in the steep price drop, who could be the next shoe to drop. microstrategy has gone all in when it comes to bitcoin holding 129,000 of them. the problem microstrategy bought the bitcoins at average of $45,000. so at $20,000 they're a billion dollars underwater. they have a margin loan to pay. do they have to put up more collateral to pay off that near quarter bill dollar margin loan? neil, there are concerns about falling crypto prices, panic taking place, and who could be the next company to fall after tara luna, that 40 billion-dollar stablecoin that imploded a couple weeks ago. then celsius was the next shoe to drop. neil: what is interesting about all the exchanges that specialize in this type of trading, even if you believed in bitcoin, some of the other

crypto investments, but you're worried about the exchange which you trade them, you still want to get out having nothing to do with the viability of your investment but the place where that investment is housed. that is a whole another wrinkle. reporter: really just calls into question about the business opportunity there. you have to remember that bank lenders, crypto lenders, they're equivalent to crypto banks. they were giving out incredible yields at 20% in some cases. neil: right. reporter: for your bitcoin or tara luna had block system giving 20% of your money with them. that is unsustainable, to the 0% you're getting from the federal reserve and bank deposits. where would all the money coming from to pay out the type of yields? that is dependent people putting money in. only worth of value what the next person values assets and companies are worth. neil: that old line, you know, susan, that history might not

repeat itself but it sure does rhyme and this rhymes a lot to me like the 2000.com experience where everyone seemed to be taken out to the woodshed at that time with the belief being anything with a tech attached to it was getting clobbered. now we know that there were survivors of that. amazon, apple and even traditional companies like microsoft. but, we couldn't sigh through the smoke. i'm just wondering, in the crypto arena, maybe besides bitcoins and some of the other larger players, who are those survivors that we have so many caught up in this selling froth? you got to wonder who survives? reporter: probably the original fomo trade, neil, fear of missing out. >> exactly. reporter: it was high momentum era as well which pretty much is what cryptocurrency is. it is a fast money receptacle. last two years of money

printing, stimulus checks has gone into high volatility plays like cryptocurrency. but my concern, you saw that after the 2,000, right, neil? when people get shaken out, a lot of these retail traders, these average joes bought in over the last few years, they have not seen this type of downturn before. neil: that's right. >> possibly sustainably. does that scare away the retail investors, day traders like it did in 2000 when they didn't come back into the market for 18 years or so after losing their shirts in the 2000 blowup? neil: took nasdaq a decade to come back from those levels. we're not saying the exact same thing but i'm noticing a lot of similarities. we'll keep a eye on it. reporter: quality matters, right, neil? companies making money. neil: exactly right. i like the old line earning matter. whether you have a good business prospect earnings matter. quality matters. you are that and then some. thank you very much susan li following developments. back to the focus what will

happen on the interest rate front here and sometimes the idea that pushing interest rates higher only slows the economy only more, stagflation worries. we're seeing it in slow motion in britain once again the british economy shrunk second month in a row. they get a lot of attention in quarter to quarter data a fixation in our country. for example the first quarter was negative. the quarter we're in right now, the growing consensus seems to be is negative. that back-to-back quarters will mean technical definition of a recession. they don't subscribe to that in britain the same way we do. but when they have two negative months in a row in the face of interest rates going up, up and away too, many are interpreting what they're doing, sort of a slow motion preview what we could be doing, if that is indeed the case. they continue hiking. deal with the inflation problem, even as it causes well, big stagflation problems.

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♪. neil: all right, another tuesday. we're seeing five states this time having crucial primaries testing everything from the clout of a donald trump endorsement or lack thereof to how the economy is playing out in a number of democratic races. get read certainly from south carolina first. where you find our mark meredith in charleston. mark? reporter: neil, good afternoon to you. turnout in this location in charleston has been steady all day long. we're seeing a steady stream of voters. this race is getting a lot of attention outside of south carolina. we're looking to see whether former president trump endorsements matters to voters or not. trump is backing katie

arrington. she has run for the district before. she lost in 2018. she is betting trump support will make all the difference to primary voters. >> he is still polling in the 80s in this congressional district. he is the heart of the republican right now. he represents hope. that there is going to be a better tomorrow. reporter: arrington's opponent, congresswoman nancy mace was once endorsed by trump, he calls her a horrible person. she criticized his behavior following the 2020 election. she is considered staunchly conservative and has support of some of the state's biggest names, former south carolina governor, trump u.n. ambassador, nikki haley. >> nancy mace is a conservative fighter in this race. she is the person i want to represent me. one i know south carolinaians in the first congressional district want representing them. reporter: we're watching another race a few hours away in the grand section of the state.

tom rice is fight to keep his seat. he is facing multiple primary challenges from trump backed state representative russell frye. this is getting attention, congressman rice is outspoken critic of the president, represents the past of the gop. trump has come out swinging at him. we may see a potential runoff later this month. one thing for sure the heat is ridiculous. 108 with the heat index. people are coming to vote but to cool off. neil: in that heat you're wearing a tie. reporter: i did. neil: that is a very big deal. it's a very big deal. reporter: exactly. election day. neil: great job as always, mark mayor -- mark merideth. hillary vaughn in in evidence couple races scrutinize for the former president and some economic issues in the state. hillary, what can you tell us?

reporter: neil, here in nevada sky-high prices for gas and groceries have soared to the top of the list what is on voters minds when they're heading to the ballot box today. the second big issue, they want to get people in office, that they think are responsible for these bad policies out. >> inflation, gas prices. i mean prices of groceries are ridiculous. there is no need for this. >> the economy. >> fuel, the economy. reporter: republican primary voters are facing a tough choice between two candidates hoping for a shot to take on sitting democratic senator katherine cortez masto in november. front runner former state attorney general adam laxalt has president trump's endorsement. he is a household name in nevada politics. his grandfather served as governor. outsider army campaign sam brown is chipping into laxalt's lead. brown says he thinks lax ought

is the wrong guy for the job. laxalt failed last time he tried to beat a democrat, losing his run for governor in 2018 losing to governor sisolak. >> this is our chance to save nevada. this is our opportunity. they know i'm the person that can beat senator mass toe. this is not just for nevada, but the whole country this is the 51st u.s. senate seat. this is the seat that can stop biden administration in its tracks. reporter: sam brown is a war veteran and newcomer to politics. also in the state nevada. laxalt attacked brown for political newbie and tourist. he talked about brown's failed run for state assembly in texas. >> i worked to beat cortez masto. the schwec equity. that is what we need to change

the middle of the state. reporter: as we get closer to election day, the distance between the two republicans running has only gotten tighter. republican voters that i talk to here, a lot of them are i will undecided. a lot of them are worried, having a tough time making up their minds. they don't want to bet on the wrong horse because of people like "cook political report" have said that masto is perhaps the most endangered democrat in the midterms. which means this is republicans best shot to try to win back the senate. neil? neil: hillary vaughn, thank you very much for that, hillary. go to texas. coupe kuhn following a key runoff taking place there, alicia. reporter: neil this is a special election for congressional district 34. this is a traditionally democratic district. thanks to redistricting it will be even more democratic come november. however the gop is banking on the results of this special election hoping that it will signal that momentum is actually on their side.

republican myra flores has received the most attention on the gop side and the most money with allies dumping one million dollars into her campaign. the congressional hispanic caucus political action committee labeled flores a qanon loving, hate mongering republican but flores counters, south texans who historically voted for democrats are closer to her party's conservative values. >> i've always said, south texas is a republican they just don't know it. my father was a democrat all his life and said why are you republican? i said to him, well you raised me a republican practically. reporter: now democrat dan sanchez is being significantly outspent by flores with national democrats looking more toward november. that is because whomever wins today's special election only fills the seat for remaining months of the term vacated by

democratic congressman filevilla. sanchez calls border wall a failure. politicized by washington. >> i think we need a secure border, but the way to do it, talk to the local border patrol, get their input, see what we need to give them in terms of the ability to do their job? reporter: republicans say they are positioned to possibly flip five democratically held texas congressional seats in part because while south texas helped joe biden win the white house, it was by a slim margin. former president trump had a better than expected showing with hi panic. >> in mayra flores wins seat next several months, be the republican candidate for a full term, she stand as much better chance of winning. that is probably not a bad strategy. reporter: neil, also on our radar texas district 28 where

jessica cisneros, progressive challenger to incumbent challenger henry cuellar. cuellar is considered one of the most conservative democrats in congress. we're watching it all. neil: like two years ago, it was close then, close now. alicia, appreciate it. we're getting ready for elon musk to address twitter workers from a big ol' conference call. anyone from twitter can get in ask questions from the boss they think they're coming their way, if he is still coming their way. after this. you're a one-man stitchwork master. but your staffing plan needs to go up a size. you need to hire.

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♪. neil: a lot has changed since elon musk has first showed interest in buying social media giant twitter. for one thing it is not as. of a giant. the for another, the stock price is well south of the 54.20 a

share offer. some say that will be ratcheted down sharply but he addresses the troops over at twitter on thursday. anyone and everyone can ask him a question. the question whether he will have long-term interest some fear might be eroding. hal lambert with us, point bridge ceo founder. hal, what do you expect of this meeting? >> i think there were two reasons to have this meeting. the first is a show of good-faith effort on behind the scenes negotiations on the part of elon musk. he wants to show he is still wanting to move forward with this merger. the second is to help him in almost certain litigation that will happen when and if this merger falls through, that he showed a good-faith effort. only two-ways to get out of the merger. one say regulators say that can't happen. that time already passed that will not be the case. the other is the financing falls through. he already secured finance ago. but the problem a lot of secured

finance something floating rate debt, margin debt and the other is probably not locked in. you're talking about 25 billion-dollars of neil in financing. everyone% raise in interest rates is 250 million of additional cost. that becomes unfinancial very quickly in the rate evironment we're in. that is what i suspect he will use to get out of the deal if they don't lower the price for him. i don't see any chance going through at $54. the market doesn't see it going through at $54. this all hands meeting, i'm still interested but the price has to come down. neil: now i'm sure musk himself is keeping an eye what is going on with his tesla stock. that was the currency for the deal. it tumbled mightily after this deal started, nothing to do with the twitter bid, but this is his wealth, tied up principally in this country, right? >> right. do you want to get into a situation where you levered up

$25 billion of debt. potentially you have a rate increase. you don't know how interest rates are going to go. no one can completely predict that. you can hedge that. there is hedging you can do around that. on the margin loans, that is difficult as well. there are hedging aspects. does he want a lot of debt floating rate, rising interest rate environment tied to stocks that could potentially go down? i don't see him taking that major risk for twitter. i think he will use that to say, hey, the banks won't finance this there is too much risk with cash flows to continue forward at this price. neil: hal lambert, we'll watch it closely on thursday, see what comes down. we're watching apple and those nifty air tag tracking devices in case you lose the phone or some other device. it also has some sinister uses. we found out about that. alexis mcadams following it all for us. reporter: neil, that's right. these are apple air tags you mentioned. they're small and can fit them

anywhere. they help people keep track of phones wallets. some people say they are used to track people out in indianapolis. 26-year-old gail morris, investigators say she used the device to follow her cheating boyfriend to a local bar. she said she hid the device to the cup holder. tracked him to the bar. she found out he was there with another woman and ran over him three times with a car and killed him. this is police, say one example of a growing and dangerous trend. >> we hear more and more stories how these devices are being used for bad rather than the food they were invented for. we all have to be a little more cautious, curious about these things as it moves forward. reporter: in a statement apple says in part we condemn in the strongest possible terms any malicious use of our products. they have done software updates. right now tracking someone with a air tag is not illegal but 23

states have electronic tracking laws. three other states have bills in the works. out in ohio lawmakers are working hard to pass a new bipartisan bill inspired by a murder of a akron mom. back in january, heidi moon was shot and killed by her ex-boyfriend. there is an old picture of her and her son. investigator told me her boyfriend used an air tag to track her down. >> stuffed down in the seat of her car, shot her with her own weapon. he was convicted felon and was not able to obtain a weapon of his own. reporter: that bill we're talking about in ohio, neil, could pass later this year. that could bring real laws against this. families are worried about this across the nation. beeping sound, someone is tracking you and check for apple notifications on your phone. neil: alexis, thank thank you fr following that very closely. attention on stocks that can't get any traction after

yesterday's big sell-i don'tsel. investors decide that i don't need this, pull en masse from all of this. there are companies trying to think investors doing twice about that by hiking the dividend or offering some goodies. fedex is a good example today. i will explain this. ♪ you'll always remember buying your first car. and buying your starter home. or whatever this is. but the things that last a lifetime like happiness, love and confidence... you can't buy those. but you can invest in them. we believe that your investments should work harder for the future you imagine.

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neil: all right, you know about what's going on the chip shortage front, you know about the supply chain issues, disruptions, all of that but it's not getting better for car shortages and the rest, not getting anymore promising. lydia hu on that with the very latest. reporter: hey there, neil, this car dealership, lex sass in new jersey, they have only a week's worth of new cars on hand in the lot. that illustrates the problem not just here in new jersey but across the country, because the limited supply is driving

prices. the national average price for a new car, it is up more than 12% over last year, reaching $47,148. used car prices are up too, more than 16% over last year. average price there will set you back more than $28,000. j.d. power says that at the beginning of june there were about 850,000 new cars on lots across the country. that's down from almost a million a year ago and down still from two years ago when we had two million new vehicles on lots across the country. that slim selection keeping prices high. it is creating bidding wars for some luxury cars. >> someone came in, they offered $20,000 overlies price. i had somebody personally interested in the car. it went 30,000 overlies price. it sold $50,000 overlies price. people are bidding on cars. they want to get their hands on them. there is no inventory.

reporter: with climbing gas prices, rising interest rates, there are some analysts who say we could see car prices start to come down. >> those things are working to help get us back to balance but, no, there is no scenario i see where suddenly prices fall off of a cliff. if anything, that balance will hit it gently as the data has shown thus far. reporter: now, neil, the experts tell me, if you're in the market for a new or a used car this year, they say their best tip to stay flexible. if you you want particular make or model, want certain bells, whistles, come to the dealership in new jersey, the owner tells me you could wait up to a year for that car to come in, neil. >> paying 30,000 or more over asking, come on, man. walk if you have to. man, oh, man. lydia, thank you very much.

lydia in whippany, new jersey. we have the former white house budget director russ vought. russ, this is getting crazy, isn't it? >> it certainly is. a lot of different things are fueling it from everything like covid and different supply shocks occurring as a result. the fact we have shortages on chips. there are a lot of things fueling this. i don't think there is any end in sight but certainly something i think consumers are taking into account particularly with inflation the decision to go ahead and spend where they can as opposed to sitting, looking at their savings account look less and less on ongoing basis. neil: russ, the president was saying today speaking to a union-friendly audience, underlying economy, jobs are strong, balance sheets for americans are looking pretty good. we're averaging 400,000, 390,000 jobs latest month, that is the wind at our back but even if

that were the case down that force the federal reserve to get even more involved in raising rates and maybe aggressively so, maybe 3/4 of a point as soon as tomorrow? >> yeah. i think they're starting to indicate that's where they might go. unfortunately i don't think anyone fears the fed. that is what we need right now, is the market to begin to fear the fed and to realize that individuals who have been late to the game for the last two years are all of sudden going to get ahead of the game, ahead of the curve and i don't think anyone believes that but when, if you're the biden administration, saying you'll we'll do support the fed, all eyes are on the fed, they're not taking appropriate action or late action, that is why we have the predictment on our hands that we face. that is why i don't think any answer is in sight in the near term. even if they go forward with 75% rate hike tomorrow. neil: if they go 3/4 of a point

tomorrow to your point i can't imagine that would panic the markets. might not. they might welcome federal reserve could be getting ahead of the curve, but just urgency of that, almost desperation of that, that would freak a lot of investors out, wouldn't it? >> probably. i mean i think that is one of the reasons why they tried to get ahead of the news today by putting in all the papers they would at least talking about it. i'm not necessarily convinced they will go forward with it. it does begin to say, hey, we're trying to catch up but at least, at least people will begin to say, okay, they're getting it. they're not making types of arguments they had. at end of last year, jay powell was still saying that inflation is not connected to the growth of money supply. how do you reconfirm a fed chairman who believed that, is saying that, is making the case for a year-and-a-half of inflation being transitory? trying to calculate every single planned statement as if they're

living in response to the taper tantrum? i think that's the problem with this fed for those of us on the outside been warning about this the last two years, we just don't look at them and say, hey, we don't think you got it. neil: 3/4 of a-point move, russ would indicate they got it. they better be ready for a panicked response once they do. we'll see what happens, russ, thank you very much. the dow down 180, 182 points now. adding to yesterday's nearly 900 point loss. no rest for the weary on the selling side. stay with us. ♪. .. he time she spotted the neighbor kid,

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neil: talking about capitulation in the stock market, people give up, surrender, and say it is not worth it, cashing out and getting out because i can't stand seeing my future and investments and financial life disappear before my eyes. a lot of you are saying celine dion was not talking about investments. prove it. anyone? please keep coming. welcome, i am neil cavuto. concerns that the situation has

turned dyer for investors that we are at the point of capitulation, investors say i got to get out and it is not really happening yet or we are not seeing it but the history of prior run-ups, the collapse, the value of the proposal, to a tune of 25%, 30% or more many people particularly those who favor technology stocks are at that point. that capitulation could happen soon. let's get the reed on other areas and the inflationary threat that is compounding all of this and the federal reserve will hike interest rates, forget this half a point hike you hear about, 3 quarters of a point hike. kelly o'grady following that in los angeles. >> reporter: good to see you. california is entering year 3 of the worst drought on record, the driest year yet. i am at the hollywood

reservoir, not just the golden state problem. across the western us all states are facing severe water shortages and 90% of new mexico is experiencing conditions in the worst drought category, 60% of california, 60% of nevada in the same situation, lake mead may reach the deadpool, a level solo the hoover dam could no longer produce hydropower. a big concern is how this will impact food supply, the central valley produces a quarter of the country's food as farmers struggle, they could only farm on part of their land or leave the industry altogether. today's senate hearing on the drill down on watch that could mean for your wallet. >> it increases the cost of food. this is families across the west who can afford it. american families are dealing with skyrocketing inflation and record-breaking gas prices at the pump, the highest in history. can't afford a grocery drought tax on top of that which is going to bust family household

budgets even further. >> reporter: the drought could exacerbate rolling blackouts, hydroelectricity produces 50% of california's power but the eia predicts that could drop to 8%. to counteract that gap california will need to import more lectures to be translating to a predicted 5% bump in wholesale electric power prices across the west, this could mean more inflation on food prices and this is coming as fire season looms with rising temperatures and a severely dry environments, environment, we could be in for a devastating summer ahead. neil: let's go to gerri willis in new york where the impact of higher gasoline prices is being felt. >> reporter: we've had 18 straight days of higher gas prices. the national average for regular unleaded at $5 and a

penny, slightly over yesterday's level. my left shoulder, $5.09, at this gas station the average is $5.01. these oil prices going higher. it is $5.50 a barrel. $5 and one cent for regular . 01 for regular unleaded, premium at $5.69. these are at $5.77. to make some comparisons that help us make sense, regular unleaded, it is less than it is now year-over-year, one dollar and 93 so gas prices are up $2 from this time last year. if you want to know the stay with the highest gas prices, california coming in at $6.43,

the average for gas, 21 states and the district of columbia, $5 or more, jpmorgan chase, gas going to $6 a gallon. it is $6.20 a gallon. imagine that. goldman saying oil prices at one hundred $40 a barrel, individual traders make 150 to 160, 170. we talk about demand disruption, folks at opec are giving the serious thought. sources saying we will see a slowdown in the growth for oil to 2% next year, 2023 down from 3.3%. one fact i found.

gas inventories, could be at levels we haven't seen since the 1970s. imagine that. back to you. neil: it gets more incredible. american energy market strategy partner, good to have you already seeing signs the administration wants to do something to alleviate this, not more domestic oil production but may be a federal gas tax holiday, maybe potentially more oil from the strategic petroleum reserve, what do you see happening? >> we heard this, a federal tax on gasoline, diesel and put that in perspective, roughly $0.18 a regular gallon of

federal taxes on gas, $0.25 on diesel so if you did that 3.5, 4% cut in prices so with inflation running 8% that is nothing, basically putting a band-aid on a deeper flesh wound. neil: the oil industry, complaining we don't let them drill, we have a when you're period where we let them drill baby drill, in other words to put the onus on these companies, i very well know the industry responses been when you do open up it is usually time-limited and the oil beneath is promising but what do you think that would do? >> it would be net positive but what we heard last week, biden said exxon is making more money than god. we have to get that negative sentiment away from oil companies and allow them to

drill, the cost to drill is going up because steel costs are going up, hiring personnel has gone up substantially. investors are requiring these guys to not spend, return the cash flow. we need the administration back away, allow federal permits, remove a lot of the regulatory issues and it starts with sentiment from the top, from the president. we haven't seen that yet, going to saudi arabia in the next month or so. neil: what is weird about that, the same time we are going to saudi arabia to beg them to cough up more oil, plenty of it here, for a while we were out producing the saudis. i don't know why there is not a end strategy. if you want to get oil from the saudis, have at it, you want to clean energy and alternatives in this country, but explore

all of it, drilling for oil. >> exactly right. we look at what will happen the next couple quarters, demand globally up 2. 5 to 3 million barrels a day, the second half of this year. if you look at that that is all of opec's spare capacity, the us will not be drilling much faster this year. we will be coming into dangerously low spare capacity levels so that will take prices higher. we have a lack globally. this is not only a cyclical issue but a secular issue we won't get out of in the next 6 weeks, 6 months or next year so you need to reduce -- like you said, all end policy. until we see that, oil companies will disappear and pay out everything they can to dividends and share buybacks. neil: if you limit what they can do you limit what they can

fix. we will have to see what happens. thank you, michael bradley of american energy. want to let you know, what is going on now, 100 points for the dow but crypto and crypto related investment putting it on the chin. to put in perspective what is happening with bitcoin it is down 70% from its all-time high and doesn't help the exchanges you can trade a lot of this stuff are making it difficult or under financial duress to trade all of this stuff after block chain's ceo. grant, nothing panics investors like seeing the exchange of which they traded comes to mind won't let them. how bad is it? >> it is not good but the most

important thing investors need to be aware of is when bitcoin and crypto are completely separate from the exchange, they are not the same entity. when you're purchasing something on an exchange you need to move into a cold or warm or wallet, when you're protected from anything happening like we saw with celsius or another exchange with economic issues that could bring them down and they could take your bitcoin. make sure investors move this to cold or warm wallet to be protected. neil: in the case of celsius they can't do that for the time being. >> exactly. as soon as you purchase it you want to move immediately. what we see is a lot of new investors entered the crypto space in the last year, a terrific bull market but not many investors have witnessed or experienced a bear market in crypto and it will take a year and i have to two years and we will see a lot of people who

thought they were better than they were get wiped out. that has happened in the early 2000s and likely going to happen now with a lot of smaller players getting wiped out. it is important to intelligently invest in smart assets like bitcoin and ethereum and that you're moving it took cold or warm wallet to protect from hacksaw anything happening like what happened with celsius this week. neil: for those who invest in this it trades 24/seven. i get up early in the morning, when this story was in the wall street journal and others that the fed might be contemplating a leaked story at that, 3 quarters of a point hike tomorrow, i noticed the selling sped up. a bigger than expected rate hike be damned for this investment strategy. >> right. macroeconomics are taking over every asset class right now.

the markets are rattled. it is affecting every investment. it will affect crypto in the short-term but long-term it is going in the right direction. there's a lot of disruption here. this is a new investment class. a lot of new investors on top of the macroeconomic situation that we have now and likelihood of a recession on the way. what we have to realize is if you are planning on the next 5 to 10 years dollar cost averaging you are keeping crypto off of exchanges. bitcoin over the next 5 to 10 years will likely be the best investment over the next we 10 years by a landslide but you have to stomach the volatility and make sure it is less then 10% of the portfolio but the short-term there will be continued volatility and it will impact every sector, not just crypto. neil: are you surprised bitcoin is not holding up data in the stock selloff.

getting hit worse than those stock investments. >> no, i am not. i remember saying on fox we would likely enter a bear market in the first or second quarter of this year. bear markets in crypto are different. each time the plus side is the bottom gets bigger and slowly over time it has increased and we reach new highs and bear market and crypto are serious and investors have to understand there is a part of the process, massive buying opportunity to get under $70,000 for almost 1/4 of low-price. in the next 5 to 10 years we invest in that and stomach it and protect yourself. neil: and story to absorb that. thank you very much. a lot of people say where is the money going in this market? there's always been a big beneficiary of the commodity agricultural commodity index. another big winner up in excess

year to date of 40% year over year, close to 60%, soybean prices in and out of record territory up 68% from last year. when it comes to soybeans and wheat and barley and oats and corn, it is not sexy, is it? it has been profitable. it continues to be, more after this. ♪♪

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neil: you heard of bidding wars to buy new homes but how about bidding wars over rentals on those homes. it is happening now. let's go to madison allworth. >> reporter: it is hard for an american family to buy the american home and as a result it has pushed rentals into an unaffordable category.

they say that the median rent in america has surpassed $2000 a month, the highest they have ever had on record and for many that is not just pricing them out of certain markets at home but pricing from out of their current rentals right now. take a listen. >> for the same money they won't be able to get the same apartment or the same home, they may go to an area that is more affordable, on the outskirts of the city where homes are more affordable but inventory is very tight no matter where you are. it is incredibly hard to find a place to live. >> reporter: a 15% increase in rent is unmanageable for most but in some cities it is far worse than that, looking at the top 5 increases we've seen this year, austin has the number one spot, in one year rents have gone up nearly 50%. %. a shortage of available homes has continued to drive people

into the rental market having it very saturated and the addition of a necklace of people who are used to high housing prices to cheaper areas where they can afford to spread this problem across the country. the federal reserve bank of new york expect that housing and home prices will stabilize, and increasing mortgage rates and inflation impact people. maybe the housing market will slow down, but the issue is inventory, only so much available especially for rentals. it might be getting easier to buy a home albeit at a higher price. rentals and the available rentals are going to stay the same so this will be a longer-term problem for those of us in rentals that your lease ends in december like myself, probably still be a problem when that comes and there is something people need to start budgeting for right now.

neil: scary stuff. we started telling you on this show about the bidding war for cars in the hopes that anyone can get their hands on a new model. in the rental front, desperately trying to land something in a pricey market and illustrations of tight supply, overwhelming demand. the first deputy managing director of the international monetary fund as well as former assistant secretary of the treasury for international finance. these are all illustrations of the same story. where do you see it? >> it is most acute. it is here in the united states.

they have misjudged inflation, this was affordable. we are living with that inflation because policymakers have chosen to allow it and if you think of it, today's tpi presents to me that inflation could rise higher than 9%. than 9%. the only limiting factor is if purchasing power reaches its limit. the president saying consumers are just fine, there's some expectation there could be more pass through between consumer prices and prices, the fed has a choice tomorrow, they can choose how to hike and will they do what they need to do? neil: if they were to hike 3 quarters of a point like a whisper they throughout to the press linked to the press having people think about that, it is another thing to do that.

what do you think the market reaction would be? wouldn't people panic at that thinking this would be the trend now? back to paul volcker type rate hikes and that did eventually call me inflation beat but also drove us into a humdinger of a recession. >> the fed has wanted to take this convenient path until now which is let the markets do the tightening so that ship has sailed several months ago and markets used to have better understanding of what the terminal rate was supposed to be but the fed has been so late, markets are pursuing the terminal rate is much higher, to whip inflation into place. that is why we have chaos in the market. the fed has to get ahead of markets in this scenario. they have to get ahead of

market so at least a hundred basis points but the out the window for pursuing this option, the longer you wait and the more inflation in the economy, the more the s&p has to do to volcker style inflation taming, that is harder on markets. neil: it is not an absolute rule of thumb but you want the overnight bank lender and the federal funds rate to narrow what the inflation rate is but to do that, having a fed funds rate twee 8 times higher than it is right now and then some. how likely is there will the series of rate hikes bring down the inflation number but the fed doesn't have to go that far. >> some of this comes down to the central bank's credibility and the potency of the forward guidance communication results, which include the credit conference and the guidance

where they expect rates to be at the end of the year. the fed's credibility is being undermined by the fact that it's projections are not in line with reality. you need to be more aggressive to reassert your credibility in the markets. to your point, the economy is more financial lysed than in the past so it may not take what it used to require in the past to tame inflation but we don't know. a lot of things shifted in the pandemic era and the structure of the economy so the fed needs to be very committed right to raising rates aggressively until it finds the right point. neil: that is the right point we are trying to get a sense of. i learn a lot every time talking to you and i shamelessly copy what you say and pretend to be the author of those intriguing remarks. very good having you.

thank you, we will know tomorrow whether the fed has gone ahead and moved 3 quarters of a point, half a point. in moving even 3 quarters of a point the question becomes how much further does this get to be the normal approach, has got to be for fed chairman paul volcker in the early 1980s raising one full percentage point at a time. the markets expect that and anything less is greeted with a raised eyebrow, why did you slow down? set up a new series of expectations. we have the dow down 56 points. more after this.

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barack obama was in the second year of his presidency. that's how far back those rate levels going a lot of people say we are nowhere near done. and the cost of everything zooming appear and interest rates are having a devil of a time keeping up. that is the impact on food prices from half a world away, what is going on in ukraine and the mess that created. >> reporter: major problem. american officials say there's 20 million tons of grain in silos near ukrainian ports waiting for export. all that stuff thanks to russia. this russian blockade, the russian invasion is hurting ukrainian farmers. >> translator: the blockade by the russian navy created a global crisis we cannot solve by ourselves and nato is closing its eyes to the problem.

>> reporter: russia is destroying ukrainian agricultural equipment and pilfering ukrainian grain. it is a significant problem the global food prices are increasing and the united nations is morning the world facing the risk of food shortages next year. us officials say they are working to blunt the impact of russia's blockade including boosting production in other countries and trying to dislodge ukraine's products. >> to help facilitate the export of ukraine's grain and also working with countries that were impacted. and blockading of the ports, with vessels containing the wheat. >> reporter: russia stealing and reselling ukrainian grain.

and largely in africa, that they could seldom stolen grain, because of drought. neil: we talk about companies in stores, macdonalds and campbells and other airlines that have been easily able to pass along, farmers don't have it so lucky, the agriculture commissioner fears the year we are in right now is going to be difficult for farmers as they have ever experienced going back a century or more, good to have you. what do you see happening? >> remember what happened in the early days with high inflation, high interest rates, we are headed toward a similar situation.

it was very difficult to deal with and i was on the board of directors of the local credit association and saw what it did to other farmers. neil: what happens? unlike a lot of these companies and your fellow businessmen who look at this stuff, farmers can't willy-nilly pass those along and they are up against the wall. what do you do? >> you've got to pay attention to markets but we have to produce a crop. when you raise the cost of inputs and equipment like we see, it greatly increases the risk the farmer has, production is still important, we farm outside and i say a farmer's

cost is always too cold, always too hot, always too wet, always too dry. that is what we deal with. first we got to make a profit. stuart: neil: i'm old enough to remember life-support measures to support farmers that often times backfired on them. that's the kindness i'm sure you don't want but what kind of help is in the offing? >> i missed it. neil: price supports or something washington could do? sometimes that creates more of a problem than it solves. >> it does. farmers prefer to make their living -- what we need is good market prices which the market hasn't responded commodity prices, and how long that will last i don't know, open markets for us to sell our products in,

we need free-trade and fair trade and we need to produce a crop, these costs have got to come down. my concern is even though the price of commodities is up there will come a point where people in the world can't afford -- never miss an opportunity to tell people hungry people, mean people, that is concern right now. . what he will put and you are right. these are the people who are keeping us going. north carolina agriculture commissioner. this is being echoed in farm states and even not farm states across the country in the situation in ukraine, russia blocking sales of food items and foodstuffs, wheat, barley, only complicating that picture. will have a lot more after this. if you invest in the s&p 500 your portfolio may be too concentrated in big companies.

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>> welcome back to coast to coast. i'm grady trimble on capitol hill, the latest irrelevant in the china competitive this bill, bill that has bipartisan support in both houses of congress, if goal is to strengthen our own supply chains in the united states and reduce our reliance on china but the current proposals are thousands of pages long and lawmakers are working through the finer details. the wall street journal reports the latest iteration would require companies to disclose certain investments, require them to notify the federal government of activity in certain sectors like the semi conductor industries, pharmaceuticals, rare earth elements at artificial intelligence and it would form an interagency panel to review and block investments on national security grounds.

house majority leader steny hoyer hopes to have a vote before the july 4th recess but not everybody i have talked to on capitol hill is that optimistic. >> do you think that's a realistic deadline? >> i don't think it is realistic deadline to pass across the floor lose we will see how negotiations go. one hundred 8 people are totaling that. >> no reason it has been held up. i don't understand. we passed it overwhelmingly in the senate. whatever the differences are, we should work that out. i'm not knowing to find out, it is ridiculous. >> reporter: companies are reducing their footprint in china or leaving the country entirely, some you see like apple, airbnb, nike and under armour. the us's investment from us companies into china fell 33% from 2019-2020, the latest year we have data for. the goal is to make our own

product in the us and have control of our supply chain so we don't see the issues we've been seeing the past couple years. more coast-to-coast after this. ♪♪ every time that flag is unfurled ♪♪ we are coming to america ♪♪ got a dream to take them there ♪♪ they coming to america ♪♪ got a dream they've come to share ♪♪ they are coming to america ♪♪ the potential for rich returns. >> tech: cracked windshield? make it easy and schedule with safelite, because you can track us and see exactly when we'll be there. >> woman: i have a few more minutes. let's go! >> tech vo: that's service that fits your schedule. go to safelite.com. >> singers: ♪ safelite repair, safelite replace. ♪

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neil: a lot of attention paid to this supreme court security bill to protect justices from stuff that have become routine, protesters dancing mere feet from a justice's home. >> reporter: if this passes the house and it is expected to pass the house at some point over the next hour and 90 minutes, supreme court justices add security for members of their families. that is something they've not had before, for a child in the immediate family of a supreme court justice. right now justices are protected by us marshals keeping a watchful eye out for anything suspicious.

the senate passed a bill, would give more protection to justices and members of their families as threats on justices continue. not even a week ago a man threatened to kill justice brett kavanaugh. republicans in the senate and democrats are frustrated with how long this took to get to the house floor. right now on the house calendar members are voting on the senate bill word for word meaning there are no more changes or delays though the house republican leader said the delay to get to this point today is inexcusable. >> passed it unanimously, 100-0. more than a month ago. but madame speaker, the house democrats have delayed it for more than a month. the question the american public asks is why. why would you delay it? >> reporter: house majority leader steny hoyer said the reason for the delay, democrats wanted to offer protection for

family members of court employees, if deemed necessary by the marshal of the court, meaning not only family members of brett kavanaugh but his clerk. ultimately that did not make it into the bill. last night a small group of people protested outside supreme court justice samuel alito's virginia home hoping to changes mind on ending rovio way. president biden says he will sign this bill to protect not only justices but family members of justices. it is expected to pass. neil: we are keeping an eye on states across the country having crucial primaries to test whether the effect of the donald trump endorsement or lack thereof would alter races in soccer line or texas. let's go to karl rove. good to see you. >> thank you. neil: what do you make of the

south carolina test with a candidate who voted for impeachment and is in the fight of his life and another who didn't have a chance to vote on impeachment but is could of donald trump might be fighting for her life. >> we are talking south carolina district where kate arrington is opposing nancy mace. nancy mace is the object of donald trump's opposition and she's the first female graduate of the citadel so is pretty tough and seems to have the upper hand in this race, the seventh congressional district, russell fry has trump's endorsement. tom rice voted for the impeachment of the former president. this will be a test of the former president's endorsement power. we have other races that have significant impact in the fall. in in the nevada senate race an unusual occasion, the

leading republican has been endorsed both by donald trump and mitch mcconnell which is a rarity. there are tweet candidates in that race but looks like lacksalways challenged by sam brown, veteran from texas but is likely to hold on. there are 15 republicans seeking the gubernatorial nomination. the leader appears to be the sheriff of clark county, las vegas, lombardo. former senator heller is running, the former mayor john lease and pretty outrageous journey, advertised widely on television, joey gilbert. this will be settled until lombardo's satisfaction with a win in trump's column. what is interesting is the secretary of state race, two candidates running who are the front runners in this race. marchin is a former one term assembly on who organized the

america first secretary of state coalition of candidates who support the trump argument that the election was stolen. if he wins the nomination in this battleground state will be one of the clearest test of donald trump's message, someone whose sole argument is the election was stolen, donald trump is the real president. texas congressional district 34 special election where the republican myra florez against dan sanchez, democratic front runner, this could be the first time in modern history the republicans win a south texas rio grande valley seat with myra florez as healthcare professional. she is the nominee, in a slightly different district to fill a vacancy created by the resignation of a sitting member of congress but this could be a huge sign to the democrats difficulties they are having with latinos in the state of texas. neil: if i could switch gears

to the january 6th committee, the one for tomorrow has been pushed back but i don't know where you see it progressing but this notion the democrats are setting their sites on donald trump and some republicans welcome that. what do you think? >> it is not likely to change a lot of attitude in the short run but it is building a pretty strong body of evidence what was happening in the white house on election night and the weeks that followed. we haven't yet seen the testimony that will lead us into the days leading into the assault on the capital on january 6th. my personal view is ultimately the trials of the oath keepers and the proud boys will be the ones that cement public opinion more likely than the committee hearings and frankly represent a bigger danger to the former

president. what happens if during the oath keepers and proud boy trials we find out the leaders of those efforts which were violent, those are the guys who let this tax into the capital, the guys who had heavy weapons positioned across the river in northern virginia to bring to the capital to establish order, these were people charged with sedition. if we know they were talking to some of the people in the command center, the trump command center at the willard hotel, rudy giuliani, steve bannon, john eastman, we don't know how much they communicated and what they communicated and those trials may reveal that and if it is revealed they were in close communication with the trump command center, the question will be what did the command center tell him, what did he know and when did he know it and that could represent a real danger politically and legally.

neil: this idea that trump haters will continue to hate, trump lovers continue to love and their won't be much wiggle room do you by any of that? >> i buy most of it but people will be listening to this and remember, we've got the critical element here, people who are up for grabs, people who voted for donald trump because they liked what he did but not how he did it but are open to change and people who voted for president biden because they didn't like how donald trump was handling himself, may be small, 15% or 20% of the population but when we get to 2024 that could be a critical group when it comes to determining who the next president is particularly if we have a biden/trump rerun or trump is the nominee of the republican party opposed by new democrat on the democratic side. stuart: 20 we will have more after this.

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neil: here is charles payne. hey, charles. charles: great to see you, my friend. good afternoon to everyone out there. i'm charles payne this is "making money." tension is so thick you can cut it with a knife. the street has come around to the fed hiking 75 basis points tomorrow. it is military equivalent of deaf -- defcon 1 or defcon 2. peter schiff is here. white house keeps maintaining we're in some historic economic boom. confidence and retirement, folks is free-falling. is your retirement slipping