that is 180 point gain. nasdaq is doing pretty well at this point. only wednesday but we're looking ahead to friday. send in the fan friday videos. record yourself, tell us your name, where you're from, say you're watching "varney & company." if you do, if you're really lucky, see yourself on tv. simple as that, folks. my time is up. neil, it i yours. neil: thank you, very much, stuart. we're two hours away hearing from the federal reserve has not done since the late '90s, raise federal funds 3/4 of a point. there are whispers in the "new york post" it could be a full percentage point. that might be a leap here. you know the drill, the fed responds to inflationary pressures. often time leaks information what might come and the fact that sew so many newspapers were

seizing couple days ago that possibility the federal reserve could raise rates by as much as 3/4 of point. mid-them adjusting math. while unusual, would be better prepared. all in response to inflationary pressures that are building. the reason why you're seeing stocks up today not as much as they were earlier on, is this notion maybe just the throat of that, or the rising rate environment is having slowing effect right now. that, for the first time in five months we've seen retail sales slowing, actually reversing. and consumer confidence continues to tick downward here. so that is some of the latest kind of reminding to the fed, that certainly will have to be aggressive on inflation. maybe not as aggressive as earlier thought. and that already it is working out. now that is a big leap here because so much else is going on that could adjust this. the swings are again part of that, you see, normally on a big

fed day. let's go to edward lawrence right now setting up this final day of the two-day meeting, what the federal reserve might be thinking as members debate how pronounced those price pressures are, edward. reporter: you talk about it, neil, the market is thinking 75 basis points last time. 1994 they did that. nancy kerrigan was attacked you may remember that year with a lead pipe. that is the last time they went 75 basis points or more. consumer sentiment they're looking at, lowest level. producer price index showing continued pressure for inflation to move up. retail sales came in lower than expected. as you know previous months were revised down. so major businesses represented by the business roundtable also showing in their survey expectations for the next six months declining sharply. so then you have president and members of the administration ignoring all of that saying their transition for the economy

is working. president biden: since i've become president we created 8.7 million new jobs in 16 months, an all time record. [applause] even last month 390,000 jobs. and 600,000 new manufacturing jobs, they said manufacturing is dead in america. look, folks, our unemployment rate is near historic lows. 3.7%. reporter: so the president is playing word games a little bit. the economy is still 800,000 jobs short of pre-pandemic levels. so the economy is adding back jobs that were already there. so republicans saying that the federal reserve now has to act more aggressively right now because the president biden's policies and decisions. >> he thinks the american people are really stupid and that is going to catch up to him. we all know what happened when governments foolishly locked down our economy during the

pandemic. we created a hole. the government spent way too much and long after the crisis was over, last year, president biden insisted on another $2 trillion. reporter: again estimates more than 90% will be 75 basis-point hike. we will know that decision right here after your show. neil? neil: all right. thank you, my friend, very, very much. before we take a look at the energy component of this, i do want to distinguish here what we're looking at as far as what could get the federal reserve motivated to go, for example, 75 basis points, rather than 50 basis points or even a full percentage point versus 75%, growing consensus. if you look for the hike a lot column, retail inflation running 8.6% clip. you have got 30-year mortgage rates north of 6.28%. keep in mind they started the

year a little over 3.4%. by the way, which is what a 10-year note is yielding. retail activity has begun to slow. that puts you in the column for don't overdo it, federal reserve, switching over to a more, half a point at most, 3/4 of a point hike, is this notion we're already feeling it. it is showing up in our confidence numbers and what we're willing to see down the road with that less confidence comes expectations that the economy is going to chug along but not nearly as much as it would in another environment. so you got the may retail slowing activity. you got consumers in a funk, a 28-year low in confidence. you've already got bidding prices on homes coming almost to a complete stop. you've got listing prices on a home, 25% of them nationally are being ratcheted down. that is a phenomenon that shows

maybe something potentially slowing in the housing arena. so again, you could sort of pick your proverbial poison if you're not a fan of raising rates in general, then the degree becomes whether you do something dramatic today, whether you go to a half-point but even now they're saying 3/4 is building as consensus. we'll know, again, in less than two hours. i wanted to sort that out there. now the catalyst for all of this if you think about it started with energy. that is where it all began. some like to point out on the very first day of the biden administration when he indicated he wants to such keystone down, never mind it was not finished, there was no oil coming from that, nevertheless markets interpreted that as cut in supply going forward. that immediately sent oil prices climbing. there were a number of elements after that, including a lot of government spending in retrospect we probably didn't

need. including what happened so many, many months later with the ukraine war. i want to point out that is not simply war driven. go to grady trimble at the white house. the president, i guess now is strong-arming big oil with the big profits, right? reporter: he is, neil. he is demanding oil companies refine more to produce more gas, hopefully lower prices. he sent a letter toe seven of the biggest oil refiners in the u.s. here is what he said. there is no question that vladmir putin is principally responsible for the intense financial pain american people and families are bearing but amid a war that raise the gasoline prices more than a buckp 70 a gallon, historically high refinery margins are worsening the pain. it is true that u.s. refineries are making less fuel before the pandemic because some refinery ies have closed last couple years. they're operating near full

capacity, 94%. even as president biden is asking the oil and gas industry for help in form of producing and refining more fuel, the administration is also pushing its green agenda. >> the solutions to make us energy cure, make the baltic states energy secure, make the entire world energy secure is to move to clean energy. reporter: meanwhile democrats in congress continue to blame oil companies for making too much money. senate finance whit tee chair ron wyden is planning to introduce a bill to tack what he considers excess profits of big oil companies, profits over 10% would be taxed at 21%. in addition to regular income tax. the industry, not taking too kindly to that saying that a new tax would discourage new investment from oil and gas companies. also this week the department of energy announced the sale of

45 million barrels released from the strategic petroleum reserve, part of the release from earlier this year. they're selling those 45 million barrels in hopes of driving down the cost of oil, therefore the cost of gas but critics, neil, have pointed to the fact they have already sold some of that spr release and gas prices have stayed at record highs. neil? neil: indeed they have. they go higher and higher. thank you very much grady trimble on all of that. the administration as grady said is seriously considering the possibility of temporarily junking the federal tax on gasoline to 18.3 cents a gallon. diesel it is even more 24.3 cents a gallon for diesel taxes. what we don't know is exactly how far such a tax holiday would go. we do know that in just the last three weeks we have risen 18 cents on average price of gallon of a gas.

whatever tax you take off the market, all of a sudden shows up in the underlying price. damned if you do, damned if you don't. where is all that going on the day the federal reserve is meeting to see what it could do to curb the appetite not only for gasoline and oil, pretty much everything that is now taking grip in our economy? scott martin joins us. ray wang joins us. gentlemen, i want to begin with you, scott because the administration's approach to this is anything but for the time-being more domestic production. it is going to try to urge the oil companies to do just that but the oil companies come back and say, well you made it very, very difficult whatever reprieves you give us are very short-lived and very limited but the message seems to come from the white house, you guys are gouging americans and it has got to stop. what do you think? >> it does, neil. you know, you're making the oil companies the enemy when in fact they're the solution and oil companies and consumers are not

stupid. they know this is government policy tried and true. this was the war that president biden declared on the energy markets when he took office. so this is just a follow-through from that sentiment. so instead of being, say friendly to the oil companies saying, how can i help? biden comes out says, you're doing this wrong, change your business or else. that is not going to work. the great point you made about the federal tax holiday. i'm in chicago alone. we have state and local taxes dollar for gas prices today. there are all kinds of help if the government wanted to come out with, give american consumer immediate relief they could do this. instead they kick this political football down the field, it is oil companies, this, that, it is putin for crying out loud. they don't want to address the real problem here. until they get to the real solution which is exactly government policies we'll see prices go up even more. neil: in the meantime, ray wang,

it is federal reserve, whether you like the fed, hate the fed, the fact of the matter the only ones now with the ability to sort of directly deal with this head on. we don't know exactly how they will deal with it today, looking like 3/4 of a percent in the overnight bank lending rate called federal funds which would bring us up to 1 and 3/4% level, likely more to go from there. what do you think? >> yeah. part of it was to get demand destruction. we're seeing implications. auto sales down 3.5%. national homebuilders pretty much said their index goes down in terms of confidence, production of homes. we're seeing retail sales up .1%. when inflation is 8.6, you're behind 8 1/2. market is taking care of some of this. the question, where is the ceiling? if they hit 75 basis points today. then say we do another 50 in july, i think market will breathe a sigh of relief, good, we think that's the top. if they keep moving, move too

far, i think there will be pushing us into the edge of recession. the economy is in a frail point at this moment. neil: scott, i was sort of factoring things out, pen on a napkin, got aggressive, stayed aggressive through the end of the year. i know consensus seems to be, i don't know where you gentleman are, scott, talking with you now, end year with fed funds probably 3 1/2%. there is another argument to be made if the fed really gets aggressive, hikes 3/4 of a point after every remaining meeting, takes you through today, july, meeting, september meeting, november meeting, finally december 13 and 14 meeting, i ad all of those up, if they got 75 basis points with each meeting, i would assume unlikely we would be up to 5%. will we go there? >> we could. good math by the way there, i don't think ion i would have got

that right. i don't think the fed would either. that is the scary thing. the sooner they get hawkish and tight, neil, the better off we'll be. i know that sounds crazy. the market has been crying crazy last year in the 10-year benchmark. 10-year rate. neil: you're right. absolutely right. >> it is telling the fed, neil, i think you got to go 100 basis points today. 75 is a baseline. if they do 100 i got prediction market rallies, equities rally. fed is taking a line in the sand. putting a stake in the ground, no more screwing around. we'll not do 50 basis points anymore. we'll get serious. sooner they do that, neil, sooner recession comes are is over. sooner too, my friend they can actually start cutting if they need to get the market or get the economy back on its footing. neil: that's interesting. you know, ray, sort of like the rip the damn bandaid approach. it will hurt like heck, better that than sort of slowly do it which would still be painful, just painful a little longer.

if the fed were to do something like that, forget about a full percentage point today, that could happen, i heard that, but to raise rates to the point that by the end of the year we're close to 5%, if you think about it, we have inflation rate well north of 8 1/2%. so they would still be unthat. normally that's what history says is your sort of guidelines, benchmark, whatever inflation rate is where the fed funds rate should be. i wonder if you get up to those kind of levels, aren't all bets off? >> all bets would be off but most definitely this is just one side of the problem. i think your earlier point, really around energy prices which is driving the inflation piece, that has got to be addressed. this bar on american energy is ridiculous. we need transition to esg but it has to be a pragmatic transition that doesn't bankrupt everybody. drive down energy, open sources, not just leases making sure the

regulations is built, permit something available. fact, pipelines, transit, all those other regulations are removed but that just means people are not serious about driving down inflation if they're not addressing the energy issue. neil: i'm just wondering, very, very quick, producer will want to kill me, you guys are very good, pick your brains on this, i know you i will be back later in the show, scott, if the federal reserve were to signal, aggressive rate hike, series of them, minimum 75 basis points were in the cards you argue the markets would respond favorably, would turn things around. many say even at these levels the markets are still rich show. do you think the markets remain toppy, even with the 20% plus decline we've seen in the major averages? >> short-term they may be a little toppy because of the valuations that you're referring to, neil. the fact earnings will come down the next couple quarters because we do have a slowdown in

consumer spending. shorter term, two or three days. i think the market loves it. anything short of something hawkish or something serious from the fed today, which is basically 50 basis points or less, to jump back to edward lawrence's amazing reference point of nancy kerrigan, that is your tonya harding. 50 basis points or less will whack the markets in the knees. the fed is not serious about getting a handle on things. if they to higher, market bounces yes, valuations are high, short term not too high enough where the market can rally. neil: i left out looking at nasdaq, technology stocks, they're off, many of them 50%, average itself, well north of 28%. so you could say that's overkill but others are saying it is still rich. do you? >> i don't as well. i think floor on nasdaq will hit around 10. if you're looking at 15-x on pe, as kind of like the low point,

that is probably where we'll sit somewhere between 14 and 15. i think we'll realize in the nasdaq, tech companies are still doing good. earnings are amazing. you saw what happened with oracle a few days back. real question where is the dollar going to be? of course what will happen to the b to c market in terms of consume he sentiment. that will slow folks down. tech companies are growing 20 to 30% especially the big cap ones. neil: gentleman, don't wander too far. i want to pick your fine brains, pick your quotes to make them my ideas. thank you very much. the whole debate whether the market is rich. it is in the eyes of the beholder. i was crunching some numbers this morning because i have no light. looking at valuation of stocks matched against future potential earnings, future earnings, not looking backwards, earnings estimates we're trading down at 15 1/2 times earnings or expected earnings.

that is down marketedly down from 20% but the historical norm is about 15 1/2%. we really haven't budged much. we're in the quasi-sweet spot but you can make an argument that even with the hit that we've seen in stocks, we're still a little rich. so, for people hoping that the fed can adjust that today, all of that is a little rich. they're hoping for relief, ironically, even if they get what they want, they won't get it today. we'll have more after this. ♪. i had been giving koli kibble. it never looked like real food.

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he have ♪. neil: all right, the cryptocurrency selloff continues right now. litecoin might be bucking the trend but it is still down a lot. all of these down certainly in the case of bitcoin down 70% from highs reached late last fall that was then a different world right now. for example we gotten down to

the 20,000-dollar a coin range for bitcoin. so rebound from those levels but the fact of the matter is, it is still looking dicey. some principle players involved are looking rocky themselves. susan li with more on that. what is going on here? reporter: everyone is concerned guessing which company or big multibillion-dollar hedge fund might be next to blow up. overnight you had one of the biggest crypto hedge funds in the world called three arrows being margin called according to numerous and self reports. they're trying to raise cash quickly by liquidating assets. three arrows founding tweeting a hint, possibly confirming we are in the process of communicating with relevant parties and fully committed to working this out. that is exactly why bitcoin is trading down, 70% from those record november peaks. 50% down from the levels we saw in the summer last year, 2021. crypto prices have already been falling because of federal reserve raising interest rates.

you throw in, couple that with companies buckling, right now, with the celsius bank run we talked about to start off this week. talk about that with 40 billion-dollar luna stablecoin wipeout. in the past hour, largest stable coin out there, terra, $70 billion denying any contagion fears, any ties it might have to the celsius failure. with the price melt down, crypto naysayers piling on, including bill gates, saying crypto nfts are 100 percent based on grater fool theory, meaning backed by nothing. interesting, despite the fact bill gates doesn't have lot of conviction in the asset class he is neither short or long on crypto. gates has half a billion dollar short on tesla. wouldn't buy all the crypto in the world for $25. that might also play into the hands of washington, d.c. and

calls for more regulation. sec chair gary gensler yesterday saying crypto regulation should not undermine market regulations. depends on how the government sides to regulate cryptocurrency neil. is it stock or currency or regulated like commodities or doled. if that is the case not under the sec under gensler but under cftc. that is what senators loomis and gillibrand are proposing. neil: raised oversights to the commodities future trading commission rather than the sec. bitcoin investors heralded at a promising move. better a good cop than a tough cop. that was the argument. look at selling since they got together to work on this. we'll watch it, susan, to your point, very, very much. want to go to the cryptocurrency currency investing for dummies. she was on this before anybody

was. time for me to get the read what you see happening now. is this falling out of favor? problems with coinbase, exchange for all of this, laying off 18% of its workers, celsius forbidding selling in this environment, adding to fears on the part of investors, many of whom just want out? >> absolutely. good to be back here and hire's what is happening here. we have cryptocurrencies, we have the stock market, we have inflation, we have some things going on at the same time and the celsius or stablecoin -- what is going on there i think it has less to do with my overall long-term view on major cryptocurrency assets. that was the reason why i got into this field back in 2016 in the first place. bitcoin, ethereum, things making moves and making changes in the longer term asset class. of course because all of it these other companies taking a hit, because of the stock

market, like coinbase, celsius, bill coin is drifting back down. however bitcoin is volatile. we've known this from the very beginning and if you look at the chart right now, it is interesting, because last time i was on your show, talked about the -- 8-k level, the moment that happened in may i bought more bitcoin at 22-k, the 11-k. first went through two nights ago when i was asleep. i am looking forward to purchase more of asset classes as they drop. why? the reason why, i'm not saying you should do this, do your own research we're in tough times right now. we're getting a double-whammy with the stock market, inflation, cryptocurrency at same time, you might want to take less risk choosing assets in the cryptocurrency markets. i'm going with the ones that i have actually a longer term plan for as a value investor. once you do, this should be your lesson learned.

do not keep your crypto assets in somebody else's wallet, not your keys, not your coins. we saw this. people are getting greedy. neil: i understand, i understand that view, kiana, a lot of people keep assets in the new york stock exchange, nasdaq. now they come to find with some of these crypto exchanges their money isn't so protected. that is sort of reigniting fears this is not only the wild west, this is the stick it to me west and i don't like it. >> they're not as regulated. that is why you -- neil: i get that, don't you see this is going, has the potential to burn investors, especially if they can't get out of celsius or locked out of trades, that this sort offing thing will feed the narrative, this is what you get plunging your dollars down in a risky investment. what do you say? >> i say you probably got into all these assets because you heard something on twitter. whether you go to crypto

mistakes.com, go to crypto mistakes.com, avoid seven deadly mistakes before getting into crypto. number one, not calculating your risk tolerance. hope is not investment strategy. 20% yield that is not investment strategy. read the white paper, understand why you're getting into this. understand how much cash these companies have that are offering you this yield before getting into it. i don't want to be i told you so kind of person. sometimes lessons need to be learned. i got into investing, before i floor trader, i got out in 2008. a lot of lessons learned throughout the time. cryptocurrency has not been through recession. be a lesson do not get into a position without actually understanding what it is and how long you're going to be in it. if you don't have an emergency fund, do not invest in it. if you don't understand it, previous reporter was saying warren buffett would not get

into cryptocurrency. you know what? good for him. why? because is is over 90. doesn't understand it, don't get in. that's fine. understand it first and then -- neil: one thing i know about warren buffett, it is one thing not to understand the investment but another thing to not trust the investment house which you can play it and trade it. he trusts the new york stock exchange. he trusts nasdaq. he trusts some other major exchanges. he seemed to have doubts about the structure around this. that might change to your bond, but i -- >> i don't think warren buffett is going to change because he has built a legacy. trust is built. he built trust in things that -- for such a long time. i don't think at his age -- neil: that is what makes him a sage, that is what makes him a sage. we'll watch it, we'll watch it very, very closely. keeping an eye on corner of wall and broad, traditional stocks have a good day. waiting another hour from now. we find out how much the federal reserve wants to hike rates.

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♪. neil: all right. on this day we're waiting to see what the federal reserve does about inflation. the president is saying oil companies better do something, certainly about oil and gas inflation. he is demanding right now that they start producing more and, quit focusing on reinvesting in their companies and their stock when a lot of people are hurting, saying essentially historically high profit margins are simply unacceptable. again, putting onus on them to help deal with all of this. some thoughts from governor mark gordon, wyoming republican governor, kind enough to join us right now. good to have you. so much to talk about, what is happening at yellowstone with this flooding, if i could begin with what the president is saying oil companies should do, produce more, get cracking nor more. they come back, governor, what if we could? you limited our ability to do

so. where are you on this? >> well, absolutely, neil. good to be here and you know the biden ban they put on leasing federal lands is really compromised our ability and companies ability to move forward with any sort of direction. they, the federal leasing program is very much in disarray. people don't know exactly what's going to happen, what lease is availability they will have. that compromised their capital plans. we do have 19 rigs running in wyoming right now. that is a step up. they're trying to do this. they're doing it on private minerals, not looking at federal minerals. all the western states with federal minerals are very much in play at this point because people don't know what the federal government is going to do. neil: john kerry was on the wires earlier you as you know, administration's climate czar or better description, governor, saying you don't need to drill.

it is not a drilling issue right now. i'm paraphrasing. what did you make of that? >> i think if you want to drilling today will affect prices tomorrow down the road and you know, i think there has been a lot of conversation about refining capacity. i will tell you here in wyoming there are a couple of refineries that have been asked to retool for renewable fuels. they can't run regular crude through them now. the renewable fuel program, may be something for the foot but right now, didn't make sense. you have to export from the midwest, soy oil take it down to new mexico, treat it there, bring it back up here. you're taking trains of refining capacity off-line at the same time you've increased energy use in driving those renewable fuels. we need to have all of the above energy strategy and let refining

companies get about what they're supposed to do. neil: i get the impression he doesn't flip over these guys. increasingly these guys don't seem to be flipping over him. there we stand at this kind of a mexican standoff. where do you see it going? >> well i think, what i've got to tell you is, it is driving up inflation. you know with energy prices being what they are it is raising price on everything. for our ag producers it is obviously an issue. being able to get product to market. for transportation it is obviously an issue trying to get product to market. for oil and gas companies, trying to develop or be able to refine their products, all of that costs more. you know, at some point in order to break this capacity we're going to have to make some tough decisions and you know, one of the biggest problems for me is,

as we start thinking about transitioning, trying to do it overnight, just puts disruptions into the entire economy and we've seen those expressed. neil: all right, real quickly, sir, i'm sorry, flooding going on in yellowstone right now, of course a big park spreads way beyond your state of course, but a lot of people plan trips going to the park and right now because of the flooding it could be closed for the rest of the season. can you update us? >> yeah, neil, thanks so much. you know, our hearts go out for those people that have, that have been in the park. i will tell you, i've been on the phone with the superintendent, cam this morning. they are dealing with circumstances as they arrive, as they discover them. water has gone down a little bit. the non part of the park will be affected for sometime. i can assure people watching that the southern end of the

park, they're planning to reopen it. there might be limitations on that but grand teton national park is close by. there is a lot of terrain around the park. in fact that has been one of the biggest advantages to sort see the rest of wyoming from devil's tower to just the shashone, bighorn, teton forest around there. there is a lot you can do in wyoming. we're working to make sure that tourists have access to the park and to grand teton. it is an important part of all of our economies. just with speaking with governor gee giantforte of montana this morning. we need people to understand we're all open for business. people can still come and have a really good time. neil: we'll follow closely, governor. you have your hands full. very good for you to stop by, update us on everything going

on. governor mark borden of the beautiful state of of wyoming, about you get into the park or not the state is just stunning. stunning results from primaries across the country. five states key, what happened in south carolina is very interesting because the trump bump well, got bumped at least for one candidate, after this. ♪ lemons. lemons, lemons, lemons. look how nice they are. the moment you become an expedia member, you can instantly start saving on your travels. so you can go and see all those,

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♪. neil: they call it the trump bump. normally when the former president has his sights set on you as he did nancy mace, the south carolina congresswoman and backed his challenger, katie arrington, that usually is good enough. he has a better than i think 90% track record getting his candidates over the finish line. did not work with congresswoman nancy mace who easily beat back the challenge.

will live to fight another day in the general election in november. she is kind enough to join us now. congresswoman, congratulations. >> thank you so much. neil: you defied some odds here. you had big help from kristi noem and others backing you even in the face of donald trump but i'm noticing the former president did congratulate you saying on his social media website, congratulations to nancy mace who should easily defeat her democratic opponent. he doesn't often do that but he did to you. are we to read anything into that? >> it was a sign of unity. we had big backing from nikki haley. out voting with us last few days as well. this district i always said is different. we march to the beat of our own drum. i promised when i ran in 2020 and flipped the seat from democrat to republican i would truly be an independent voice.

i've done that. i would not to the party line. we worked very, very line. i am glad there is message of unity throughout the party today because we will need that as majority in november. neil: i'm sorry it was nikki haley who campaigned on your behalf, former governor. first female governor of the state. if donald trump wanted to help you in your re-election quest would you welcome that help? would you invite him to the state, your district, what? >> well, my district as i said earlier is very much an independent district. this is a swing district. it is really up to me now as a nominee to keep the seat in republican hands. i grew up here. from here. raising my family here. i continue to care about issues that are important to the district. endorsements only go so far as

we have seen in the race. all politics is local in this particular district. they want somebody fiscally conservative, cares about the environment, offshore drilling, make sure we don't have it here. those are issues that will take us into november. that is where i will be focused. i'm focused on policy, on substance and work i've done so far. i passed several pieces of legislation. i delivered a lot of results for the first congressional district in south carolina. i worked hard for south carolinian families, workers here. that is the message we'll carry forth in november. neil: congresswoman, a lot of people are looking at your state, whether what happened could be harbinger of things to come. fellow congressman battling impeachment vote ultimately lost his quest to survive. so it's a mixed bag in terms of those who voted to impeach donald trump versus those who were critical of him.

you don't vote to impeach. how. of a factor the former president will be in the november election. >> it's really hard to say at this point. endorsements only go so far. i made it very clear in this election that i am conservative and i support his policies in 16 and 20, that hasn't changed but i wanted to make the distinction i wasn't going to to my tow my party line because republicans spending too much. in this district having grown up here, policy does matter. principles do matter. insuring somebody that stands strong, honest, true to their word. it is important to voters in their first congressional district. that is how i know we're going to win the november election. neil: all right. we'll watch it closely, congresswoman, again, congratulations. congresswoman mace joining us now. she will be the republican nominee for the position she holds in a re-election attempt in the november.

meantime here keeping eye on wall and broad, keeping eye on federal reserve possibly doing something it has not done since the early days of the bill clinton presidency, raise rates by 3/4 of a point, after this. ♪ another crazy day? of course—you're a cio in 2022. but you're ready. because you've got the next generation in global secure networking from comcast business. with fully integrated security solutions all in one place. so you're covered. on-premise and in the cloud. you can run things the way you want —your team, ours or a mix of both. with the nation's largest ip network. from the most innovative company. bring on today with comcast business.

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neil. who needs to wait for the federal reserve. mortgage rates already been backing up, 6.28% for 30-year fixed rate mortgage right now. think about where we were beginning of the year around 3 1/2%. layoffs realtor titans, redfin, comcast, hundreds of employees losing jobs. both, how bad does this guess? >> distinguish residential, bhs, versus resident, compass. non traditional model. rates as you know going up. market is changing. a lot of change in the last six months. various factors, war, inflation, stock market volatility. so yes, it is going to be a

little bit after choppy market. so we're prepared for that. we lived through various markets. we were talking when covid hit. that was a tough market. neil: a little while, tight time, do you see this lasting a while with people putting homes up for sale, slashing prices to adjust. how bad do you see that? is this natural? >> i think this is somewhat natural. first-time home buyers are probably going to take a little bit of a pause, because of higher rates. sellers are adjusting price moving into buyers market. this to be expected. rates are going to go up. i always tell i think we'll be okay. neil: that is good to here. sorry for truncated time. thank you very much, to her point, overall real estate

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than they hike rates by half of 1% and the full percentage point as the fed kicks into gear. if they were to raise rates and continue doing so at the next fomc meeting on the 26 and 27th of july, did it again in the september meeting of the twentieth and 20 first. did it again november 1st and second and wrapped it all up on december 13th and 14th, raising 3 quarters of a point every 6 weeks, in federal funds and even then assuming inflation is taking hold north of 8%. it is just the mess as far as gauging that, those inflationary numbers coming down and don't have to go much

higher than that. connell mcshane is following it from the nasdaq. charles: you are telling us you got a raw deal on mortgage. neil: don't get me started. it is all about expectations. that is what we are dealing with in this market. amazing how much you think expectations have shifted. just in the last few days. this inflation peaked off of the table, market pretty much falling off the cliff as the federal reserve comes out to reset expectations and the get a set and get a set for 3 quarters of a percentage point. we have a key piece of data, into the mix, fell in may.

most of it is vehicle sales down by 4% and given everything we've been through inflationwise holding up, look at the big retail stocks, let's see how they react to the decision, just in the last few weeks, wage inflation issue started to catch up with those companies. at nasdaq and elsewhere, it is getting hammered in the recent selloff, could be a bounce back they through the afternoon. alphabet, amazon, all in the green for the time being. one asset class that can't find something is crypto, bitcoin is down, that's the set up for the next hour. the bottom line as we get set for the federal reserve

decision, all these questions in the next hour. the bear market rally, those are sharp if we get what the fed is expecting or more than 75 basis points. one perspective on markets going back to the message this morning, since last week, last wednesday the s&p down 11%. 4 and a half trading days as the market reacts. in the next hour to the fed. neil: i will talk to you later about my first mortgage. i appreciate connell mcshane, how they are dealing with this inflation, hit one after the other. the federal reserve, up to you. >> that is the plan.

folks are bracing for what that looks like. the economy is a big priority for this white house, democratic aide tells fox dispatching top advisors, and can mitigations director kate bedingfield to the hill tomorrow to have a closed-door meeting with democratic conference, how to talk about the economy as they grow increasingly concerned about the prospect, showing americans are not happy with the president's handling of it? president biden wrote the oil companies telling them they've got to ramp up production and cut costs at the pump saying they are taking advantage of the energy prices, biden wrote no question vladimir putin's principal responsible for the intense financial pain the american people are bearing but amid a war that raised gasoline prices $1.70 a gallon, historically 5 refinery profit

margins are worsening the pain. jennifer granholm claiming there is not much more the president could be doing to have it work? >> so much beyond any leader in the globe's control unless they own state owned enterprises that are producing gasoline. if you were in canada you would be paying $6.20. if you were in germany you would be paying $8 a gallon. if you were in singapore you would pay $9 a gallon? it is happening across the world. >> reporter: president biden claimed other countries, and the us inflation rate of 8. 3%, one of the highest in the developed world dwarfing japan, france, britain, italy and canada. the leaderboard, the inflation

rate grew to 8.6%. it is putting more pressure on people's wallets. next month of the president is going to saudi arabia with officials admitting after first denying pressuring saudis to ramp up production will be part of this conversation, the agenda on the table but drawing criticism not only from the right but top democrats including senator dick durbin and adam schiff who say with their record on human rights the president should not be meeting with the saudis. neil: for checking out the remarks about inflation, jackie heinrich on all of that holding him accountable as all the ports should. kelly o'grady does the same thing a specially keeping up with elon musk, talking about what is going on with tesla and how he feels about the government about weighing into

politics talking about how good an idea it is to vote republican. tell me what he said exactly. >> never know where he will go on twitter but he's making good on his promise after saying he would support republicans after being a lifetime democrat, the billionaire did that. he took to social media sharing how he voted in the 34th congressional district weeking i voted for mayra flores, first time i ever voted republican and a massive red wave in 2020 do. he will vote republican in 2024 but he favors ron desantis in the next presidential election. he is a vocal promoter free-speech. the tesla ceo gained concern among conservatives after purchasing twitter but continuously stated his position as a moderate noting 10% on either extreme, the platform is doing something right, he reemphasized the middle position on social media

tweeting i am thinking with the super moderate super pac with centrist views from all parties. this vote coincides with his relocating due to california's restrictive business policies. many folks, flooding to conservative states. 's term a prove that wrong. it is fairly silent on social media. we will see if this perspective keeps them in good favor, with both parties at some point. neil: the candidate talking about that, the first mexican woman elected to congress. he lives in her district and again, that was a blue hold the

turned red and some argue could be a preview to comic attractions in november. consensus, the wall street journal editor at large, on this fine network. whatever consensus we hear and challenging that with a column this week saying it wasn't real but it was transitory and we are told the fed will cure it with a few rate hikes. and the federal reserve will fix this. here we placing too much trust in the fed to make this go away. >> and with 75% in the summer

and fall. the bigger problem is will the federal reserve have the nerve to tighten policy. we had negative growth in the first quarter of this year, the latest estimate for current second-quarter growth calculated by the atlanta fed with gdp now forecast. and and if that tips into negative, and we have a second success of quarter, the fed will be exercising the toughest

squeeze, the biggest monetary tightening on the economy. i'm not sure that will add up. i don't know that they will continue to do that because of the damage they fear we do to the economy and the political pressure they are under. the fed is under tremendous political pressure from democrats in particular nervous about the state of the economy and on the broader political social pressure to do more to target minority unemployment rates and that kind of stuff. if we are looking at the situation where the fed knows to do to get inflation down but facing the risk and probability that in doing that will make the recession worse, that is real dilemma, they will tighten and deal with inflation and everything will be fine. this could get extremely ugly. neil: the wrap against jerome powell that he's a moderate

fellow, cautious fellow, not exactly a paul volcker type who would raise interest rates one full percentage point but that was then and jerome powell always signaled that is not the new central bank chief but what if it is. i've got to get ahead of this and be paul volcker and dan the implications and repercussions of doing so. it is inflation. i looked that. everything is okay. what do you think? >> interesting to watch this afternoon when he gets his press conference. i suspect on the back of what is expected to be 75 basis point increase, have to give a hawkish count, to explain the biggest increase in interest rates in one go in nearly 30 years so he has to explain that by demonstrating how much he

things inflation is a threat, his colleagues are intent to be on top of inflation. i think the ghost of paul volcker will be sitting behind him and hoping in a sense to be enjoying the spirit of paul volcker. a public official who devoted a lot of time to get policy right but they made a terrible mistake, universally acknowledged, they didn't get the inflation story right, dismissed as transitory, they were wrong about that. if they started tightening a year ago we would not be in the situation, does he have the cojones, does he have a steel to push through these tough necessary measures to get on top of inflation.

if the market is crashing, getting from a this pressure from the white house, congressional democrats, it is reasonable to raise that question at have doubts about it. neil: it might telegraph, this is more intriguing how he comments on the move. jerrod jared baker, wall street journal at large. top-notch gas and ruminate on the very things we are talking about, how far will the federal reserve go? you get similar hikes in july. in october and ultimately, you are still up markedly on rates near 0, a little more than a few months ago that are 5 times that.

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neil: the president of the united states just got off the phone with president zelenskyy promising another billion dollars.

don't know the breakdown of that but they said we need more weapons and arms, the faster the better. steve harrigan has the latest. >> reporter: that promise of more aid from president biden comes as momentum east of ukraine is shifting towards the russians. there is a close battle in donetsk. the russians control 80% of that city and the russians have blown up the last bridge in or out of the city making it impossible for ukrainians to resupply their forces or get at the wounded. president zelenskyy of ukraine continues to ask the west for more heavy weaponry. >> translator: our country has the greatest need for heavy weapons in europe. >> reporter: that fight in the east is a scorched earth war at this point, russia relying on

long-distance artillery at nato headquarters, the us defense secretary said the us is resupplying advanced rocket launchers to ukraine. here's the defense secretary. >> providing ukraine's defenders with multiple launch rocket systems. that will significantly boost ukraine's capability especially combined with nato standard rockets systems from the uk and our allies. >> reporter: the challenge is those advanced rocket systems. it takes 3 weeks to train one ukrainian crew to use them and when crew is being trained at a time. it's not clear if there's enough time to tip the balance with these new weapons in the east. neil: be safe, see you in odesa, ukraine. general jack keane, always good to have you. we are hearing as well but french president emmanuel macro

wants to talk to russia to end more ukraine, the ukrainians are not enthusiastic about that prospect. >> reporter: that is one of the problems we have. the united states and particularly nato countries are all over the map in terms of the objective in supporting ukraine. obviously we want to help them but there are different objectives. to characterize them, france and germany want to go to a cease-fire now. they want negotiations. that is not in ukraine's interest. that leaves hundreds of thousands of russian troops inside ukraine to rebuild, reorganize and i don't believe vladimir putin has given up his aspirations to topple the kyiv government at some point knowing full well now it will take much longer, could be greater the new year but his

objective remains the same and we have other countries who are all in. by that i mean the uk, every single day talks about wanting to achieve victory for ukraine, destroy the russian military inside ukraine, the baltic states along with them. poland is a huge supporter and other european countries as well and i think the united states is interesting because we backed off talking about victory for zelenskyy. we are saying we want an independent sovereign ukraine it is economically viable, what we intends to do is provide ukraine, new leverage into negotiations. that is a bit different than, to achieve a victory.

and how much assistance ukraine is getting. fortunately the secretary of defense, to get their support. our own support which is significant, it takes too long to make a decision, are we provoking vladimir putin or not? will be escalatory? as opposed to having a clear objective and the weapons they need to accomplish that clear objective? there are challenges here and we are at a tipping point. they need help now or the russians are going to take more advantage of the ukrainians and they have an opportunity to push back and take territory back, the russians have suffered significantly casualties trying to take this one city.

neil: they are grinding away at it but you mentioned fractures in the nato coalition. that is to be expected but if i am flannery putin i'm looking at this and thinking they are blinking. i am not blinking. >> you put your finger on it. many people read vladimir putin wrong from the beginning. because he was having trouble in the beginning not able to accomplish his objective as quickly as he thought he could that he was looking for some kind of off or exit ramp, not true. letter put naps objectives remain the same even though it may take longer to achieve and the only way you stop vladimir putin and this ends is by force. he will keep hammering and hammering and hammering, nato

countries with a halfstep in germany promised these advanced weapons, significant self-propelled artillery systems, they promised several weeks ago and haven't delivered one of them. there are challenges here. you are absolutely right in the flannery putin is not blinking and he's going to keep pushing forward despite the problems he has with his military. the ukrainians still have the skill, the will, for people. they just don't have the weapons systems they need as -- neil: so much they have to sort out. thank you for your incredible service to this country. that is another very proud story, he never talks about that. i thought i would. a lot more coming up including the expectation the federal reserve will raise interest

rates, bad if you owe money but if you are trying to make some money at put some away, it is pretty welcome news. that side of the story after the break. ♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪ if you lose ♪♪ the devil gets your soul ♪♪ like the time she spotted the neighbor kid, an approaching car, a puddle, and knew there was going to be a situation. ♪ ♪ ms. hogan's class? yeah, it's atlantis. nice. i don't think they had camels in atlantis. really? today she's a teammate at truist, the bank that starts with care when you start with care, you get a different kind of bank.

neil: if you owe money the cost of dealing with the associated problems with higher interest rate snakes is more onerous but if you are trying to make some money but not worried about debt because you don't have a more few of them and trying to stock away from the the you are wasting your time putting away a bank cbo savings account, rates tick off.

greg, we forget about that side of the equation, don't we? >> we have because returns have been so low for so long. things have turned in the sense that in the last three years the situation was the returns on savings fell and inflation took off and we are in a situation where in the course of the next year or two, hopefully eventually inflation comes down, much better fortunes for savers as what they enjoyed. neil: we were showing some rates north of 2%, two years from now rates could be higher so you might not lock into something like the 2% rate. as far as savings rates are

concerned, we inch higher. >> first thing, you have to be looking in the right place, not all banks are raising rates and not at the same pace, larger banks in a pile of deposits, they are going to raise rates so important to shop around online banks, small community banks. to answer the question, the fed is as aggressive as we think they are, if you're going to push the fed funds rate north of 3%, we will see this leapfrogging among banks trying to outdo each other, i would caution consider your returns in the context of inflation. rates are going up but the other side we need to see inflation come down as well. neil: people look at this and

say these rates can't compete with what people think i could get in the stock market. depending where they are, the buckets they have been losing money, maybe they changed their view of what we think would be paltry returns because at least they get to keep more of what they have versus what has been going on in the stock market, the psychology change. >> it doesn't that is one of the things, it does tend to bring valuations on stocks back to earth and that is what we are experiencing since the first of the year as interest rates are taking up and valuation on those stocks not as generous, they look at those risk-free returns and look at the more favorably than they did last year when the market just went up, no downside volatility and interest rates were moving up. neil: i would be interested in

your take on the federal reserve, could be a full percentage point. could be a lot more aggressive and quicker at doing so. so what would the impact of that be if the fed makes it clear inflation is our worry and we hope to hang on and inflation is the worry, everyone has become local. >> i expect the fed will get more aggressive not just today in the months ahead. that's the news on inflation last friday, the consumer price index and inflation expectations of consumers was a national disaster that has forced the fed's hand. a month ago they said they were not considering a percentage hike. that is what we get. neil: we watch closely. you are a calming presence. we need more than that.

it is going crazy here. everyone has to stick up. sentencing whatever is coming down the pipe will help will get ahead of this thing. more after this. ♪♪ ♪♪ life goes on ♪♪ life goes on ♪♪ dshieldmake it easy and schedule with safelite, because you can track us and see exactly when we'll be there. >> woman: i have a few more minutes. let's go! >> tech vo: that's service that fits your schedule. go to safelite.com. >> singers: ♪ safelite repair, safelite replace. ♪ my sister's managing a lot, including her type 2 diabetes. but she's found new ways to stay on top of it all. once-weekly trulicity is proven to help lower a1c and it can help you lose up to 10 pounds.

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day. schedule a free consultation. to finally lose 80 pounds and keep it off with golo is amazing. i've been maintaining. the weight is gone and it's never coming back. with golo, i've not only kept off the weight but i'm happier, i'm healthier, and i have a new lease on life. golo is the only thing that will let you lose weight and keep it off. who loses 138 pounds in nine months? i did! golo's a lifestyle change and you make the change and it stays off. (soft music) neil: stocks might be holding up today, nothing having to do with crypto. down to the exchanges in which you trade them. he joins us with the latest to.

>> crypto is one of the top stimulus trades. the most in 28 years. that is unwinding. they are both down 50% the past year, $40,000 in your bitcoin. 12 months later sitting at half those levels, crypto currency is a fast money receptacle and easy money is disappearing meaning prices will fall pressuring the entire crypto industry, the hedge fund buckling with the price collapse with a bank run, that is managing $12 billion in loans and overnight, one of the biggest crypto hedge funds, arrows that manage $10 billion

in assets at its peak reportedly in trouble over leverage lipid missing stent -- $4 million in its assets to raise cash quickly, to beat margin calls for three arrows on top of $40 billion stable coin a few weeks ago. investors are staring down the losses and coin base ceo brian armstrong calling a crypto winter with deflated crypto pricing for some time to come and an upcoming recession with coin base, the largest crypto exchange cutting 18% of its staff, gemini holding up 10%, block by chopping 10% of its report - workforce@crypto.com. spent a lot of money on super bowl ads. i think it is a learning lesson, buyer beware. don't trade on borrowed money. that's dangerous in these high interest-rate expectations and the billion-dollar investors

say you will lose money and don't try to trade day by day. you heard before you tended to make money on bitcoin but it is buyer beware and you have to know what you are doing. neil: and the exchange you are trading. i have to sell, or what have you. that pooled into this. susan: you don't necessarily buy and sell crypto on celsius, they put their money in their and they are not able to withdraw by cash and that's a big problem. neil: to put it mildly. great job reporting this. a tough story for a lot of people. talking about the backdrop of the fed's move today, the run-up in energy prices in general but there are options we don't hear a lot about, we have to produce in more areas

where to get oil and the like but there is a nuclear component in this. more from new jersey on this. mike: the nuclear industry says i can help. perhaps you see the second largest nuclear generating facility in the country, the salem and hope creek facility in the southern new jersey, the two contentment, and over here you see the cooling tower that is quite familiar. eric carr is the chief nuclear officer, you say nuclear can help. >> absolutely. nuclear power is the best clean energy source we have in the united states. it produces 20% in total of the generation pretty electric grid but 50% of the clean energy produced. jeff: natural gas is 20%, coal is 22%, wind and water and

solar, that is about the same as nuclear. put up these numbers, the cleanest of all energy sources. >> it is carbon free generation. jeff: the total thing, coal in terms of grams per kilowatt hour, 920 gams -- grams, you don't like cold but nuclear, the cleanest of all. >> we are splitting atoms, not burning fossil fuels can we produce no carbon when we generate power. jeff: they tend to be remarkable efficient as well and with natural gas plants, coal plants operate at half their capacity, nuclear is 90%. jeff: 92%, incredibly reliable, 24/7 operations, the workhorse of the electric grid. jeff: maybe we could look at the containment buildings where the reactors are. save energy.

early in the nuclear evolution things, people were questioning the safety. any question about safety? >> non-whatsoever. one of the safest places to work, nuclear power has an excellent safety record and ever since the events of 3 mile island we've done nothing but burn. jeff: the final one, this is china. you say we can do more in the us, china is doing more. look at these numbers. 2037 they hope to have 150 new reactors with investment of $440 billion, billion with a b. we could do that in this country if we had the fortitude. >> there is an opportunity to continue investing in existing nuclear like these plants and new nuclear, the next generation for sure. jeff: appreciate the exclusive up close and personal, the nuclear power industry. it surprised me. nuclear is cleaner than solar and wind. amazing. jeff:

neil: it is wild. i learn with every report. thank you for that. jeff flock following these developed on the energy crunch. those -- don't know what nuclear is doing on the cost front about the energy you see at the grocery store, restaurants and movie theaters and ticket prices have been rocketing. the federal reserve in 14 minutes will address that by rocketing up the cost of barley. the only question is how much today? ♪♪

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neil: a little more than a week ago, the odds of a 70 point basis point, it would have represented 3% possibility, people who trade on this stuff, the overwhelming majority betting on a half point hike, that has split better than 90%, that is what we will see today. overnight bank lending, federal funds increase 3 quarters of a

point. very small sector insisting it will be a full percentage point. the managing director ray wong is with us. everybody wants to rule the world. ray is ruling the world so we threw that into the title, scott martin, cio of fox news contributor ruling the world for young people who want to understand how the market stuff works. welcome to all of you and thank you for joining us, we are minutes from a rate hikes, that we know but will it be 3 quarters of one%? >> my guess is it won't behalf of 1% but it doesn't matter. certain areas of inflation,

otto, housing market, as we get some kind of relief rally, the supply side, affects more. that is not any kind -- neil: the 3 quarter of one% hike in. >> i don't think so. neil: where are you on this? >> 3 quarters. pick up tickets if you can. i will shout it out, they need to do 75. she's right about supply chain concerns, supply and demand, demand is cooling but the market is in such a weird, frisky, emotional state, especially the bond market that

was so gentle and now freaking out needs to see the fed take a stand. i went into the studio because they need 75, a huge selloff. neil: if it is 3 quarters of a point and the fed were to follow with such aggressive rate hikes, now you are talking fed funds rate approaching 3%, 4. 5% by the end of the year, what is an acceptable level? >> a mad world, we would see mortgage rates citing 7.5 which would take us probably 2000-2001. we need the shock and it will quell some of this but definitely a supply-side issue and if we don't solve that

piece we will be in trouble. we will see the two rate hikes. neil: is that are rich market to you? you could make the argument it is still rich trading got multiples north of where they should be and that is after that. where are you on this? >> valuations and ratios with historical high and companies brought back their own stocks and enjoyed their interest rates that will suffer as a result and don't know what valuation is. i want to explain the supply-side inflation doesn't matter. what the fed does about interest rates, can't control

things that cannot be produced like food and energy. doesn't matter if they go 75 or 50. we are in a bear market, inflation will continue where it hurts the most and valuations are loaded and we don't know what fair value is. at some point, we will establish what actual fair value is if you believe in free market ultimately. neil: you can talk about not having an impact on food prices but you can argue the opposite as well. people hereto for were buying expensive cuts of meat and pivoting to cheaper cuts or god forbid going vegetarian. people will in the face of higher costs start making these tough decisions. there lies the fear of stagflation. getting a slowing economy. where are you on this?

>> going plant-based, driving less, flying less, the demand side is part and parcel to that. the higher rates curtail the demand, the market, this will sound crazy, overkill warning here, the market will be head over heels if the fed gets a hold on inflation. they played this too easy and now they got behind the curve and the market is begging them to do something stark here. the market will start to rebound because inflation is the number one concern on the supply-side as michelle pointed out but also the demand side and the demand side will be curtailed. neil: something has changed here. having said that, this is

jerome powell's paul volcker moment. he aspires to be that blunt, that rough, that tough mother cautious jerome powell might not be around anymore. if he is paul volcker we are in some aggressive rate hiking. >> we are. we need a paul volcker here but also a ronald reagan to cut regulation and open up markets and drive down food prices and to make sure we are safe and secure and feel good about that and open up energy. if we were to do that we could cover both ends. the fed is one aspect of it but there's regular tour issues and policy implications not being put to the test. if we go to the policies that drive down costs and be deflationary we would be in better shape than relying on the fed. neil: i wish we

neil: lauren simonetti taking over next hour. 75 basis point thing today. the only thing seems to be in doubt how november and december fare. no matter how they start they are rising and fast. here is lauren. lauren: i'm lauren simonetti in for charles payne. this is "making money." breaking right now in mere minutes we'll going to find out how far the fed is willing to try to rescue the economy from record inflation. only few days ago the wall street consensus was for a 50 basis-point hike but there are increasing calls for the fed to take much more drastic action, 75 firmly on the table. something we have not seen by the way since november of 1994.

that was by green new deal. can't understate the importance of that next hour. danielle dimartino booth and others will join me throughout the hour to give their expertise. at 2:30 all eyes on jerome powell. investors will scrutinize the fed chair language and his tone and any indication about the fed future moves. can guyed the promised soft landing without pushing the economy into recession. lots to discuss. edward lawrence is live at the federal reserve for the decision. reporter: the federal reserve has gone 75 basis points first time since 1994 if you may remember nancy kerrigan got hit with a lead pipe. esther george dissented from the position. only wanted 50 points. inflation remains elevated because of supply chain issues they said related to the pandemic high energy prices as well as the broader price