military will put together something like this and not realize how ridiculous it is. >> and jess, three hours. [inaudible] we've got a consensus on that but thanks to jessica and charlie that is it for this week. charlie will be back next week at more in-depth interviews right here on the wall street journal at large but thank you for joi >> "barron's roundtable" sponsored by global x etf. jack: welcome to "barron's roundtable" where we prepare you for the week ahead. good news for consumers. 's retailers are about to offer big price breaks. dana pelty will explain.

income investors have reason to celebrate where to find higher yields. we begin with the three most important things investors should be thinking about. we closed the books and an ugly first half, three mysteries to solve the puzzle of where we go next. a big travel weekend in the us but airline stocks are losing altitude. uncertainty about niekro soft's $69 billion call of duty for activevision blizzard may have created an opportunity. my colleagues, andrew bary, carleton english and jack hough, good to see you again, you are better looking than you were pre-covid. ben: i feel strong, how's my hair and makeup? carleton: i feel good. jack: despite one good day on friday in the market, it is an ugly first half, the worst first half in decades, the

worst for bonds. ben: super old as you know. s&p laughed -- last 20%. bonds, deutsche bank said it was the worst half of the 10 year treasury or any of its predecessors since 1788. it was a terrible year. jack: my 401(k) did badly that year. ben: three different bath stocks slipped on a bar of soap. bed, bath and beyond fell 23%, disastrous earnings, bath and body works, restoration hardware doesn't have bathroom in it but they sell things, last 10%, lower lowered guidance for the second time in a month. there is no economic term for triple stock collapse. i call it a bearish naked splash. it hasn't caught on but i'm waiting to see it.

is this a broader deterioration for consumers? i will be listening. the consumer is the key to three scooby doo mysteries. how we entered a recession? the second is what will it due to inflation? jack: i can't do it. jack: will corporate earnings estimates fall for stock investors? that would be -- [making noise? jack: exactly what america is all about. jack: what do we do, you talk about how awful it has been. a lot of investors tempted to cash it in. jack: depends how tactical you are. i speak with strategists who say shares look cheap in emerging markets, everyone has problems, their currency looks cheaper. you can ship more money overseas. if you are like me, you keep it

and rebalance it once in a while and see what happens. jack: the dollar is strong, another reason now might be a good time to buy. speaking of overseas let's talk travel, huge travel weekend july 4th. airline stocks are doing poorly even though everybody says they are flying to spy cancellations, price ticket prices are up but stocks not going up. ben: airports are jammed, airplanes are fool and get the airline stocks are down 35% to 40% the last couple months. the big fear is a recession but a couple factors for the airlines, capacity growth, doesn't look like that will happen. it can't find pilots. air traffic control problems and it looks pretty good. stocks look attractive. the major ones including united, delta and southwest.

take delta right now, trading at $30 a share down from 45 a few months ago. they expect to earn $7 a share in 2024, four times earnings. historically when they had big declines, big gains after that. jack: the biggest single cost for an airline, jet fuel, the price is through the roof. is that what the market is worried about? andrew: they are passing on indications now. if you think fuel prices are heading low-end oil markets are suggesting that it could be a bonus. jack: let's switch here, carleton. despite a lousy or slowing year for m and a this has been the biggest am and a year for video games and this proposal by microsoft buy activision.

carleton: it is better than a coin flip, it is $95 a share. the issue is competitiveness. under the biden administration, hitting the ftc there is a huge focus on going tough on big tech mergers. the ftc may want to make a point on this one. might not be the deal, when you look at how much of the videogame market activision has, looking at 4%, it is not that anti-competitive but might be one where the administration is looking at these closely. jack: this is not a hill lena con wants to die on, amazon subsidizing retail, that is what she's worried about but 4%, the bottom line according to barron? carleton: we are looking bullish on the stock. if it doesn't go through there could be a quick adjustment of 20% but this will be a time for activision to reset.

jack: my son things active call of duty is cool. supply chain is easing, some stores that had empty shelves last year are flush with last year are flush with merchandise today. lemons. lemons, lemons, lemons. look how nice they are. the moment you become an expedia member, you can instantly start saving on your travels. so you can go and see all those, lovely, lemony, lemons. ♪ and never wonder if you got a good deal.

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jack: rising retail inventories could mean deep discount for consumers. is now time to purchase that big-ticket item or get a jump on holiday shopping? which retail stocks are good buys right now? joining me is dana telsey, always good to talk to you, really good to talk to you live and in person. >> the first day of your new studio, congratulations.

jack: we wanted you to inaugurate it. let's start with supply chains. i'm hearing contradictions. the wall street journal reported the cost of transporting goods fell 4 x but it is more expensive than it used to be. we are getting stuff from china faster, it is 100 days versus 50 in 2019. what are you seeing in the supply chain? >> disruption is continuing in the supply chain. orders are coming in that were placed a mile ago. a mismatch in terms of timing of what the goods are for when they are arriving. the new goods, place earlier but we are seeing a reduction in the cost of ocean freight that is coming in. some companies using airfreight because they want the goods to maximize full price sales. jack: that is really expensive. you go to inventories and

walk-through target on the one hand, they bought too many tvs and appliances, but another aisle is bear. what's going on? >> inventories are heating up. i'm hearing of order cancellations from wholesale customers and some companies are beginning to pack and hold goods that have arrived already. in the apparel world we will have a promotional back-to-school season given the increase in the amount of inventory. jack: what are we seeing in terms of price increases or could there be a decrease? >> most prices going up mid single digits to double digits, not just the cost of supply chain and freight but raw materials like cotton and we will see price increases through the back half of the year but it means a bifurcation. the lower income consumer who lacked the stimulus they receive last year's pulling back on spending.

jack: the trend on wealthy consumers is they are keeping up with spending so that suggests another bifurcation in which retailers will benefit and which ones get hurt. >> exactly. the wealthy consumers everyone is watching closely, they are correlated to the stock market, the volatility in the stock market, s&p, consumer discretionary was down 30% of the retail etf down by 30% so that will be watched closely but when you think of the stocks you are seeing essential still work, look at costco and the demand for costco, the value they offer, kroger on the supermarket side and we are back in person. estée lauder and makeup we are seeing our recovery. jack: people are getting ready to go to a wedding. >> those numbers are big, 2.6 million wedding suspected this year compared to an average of 2.1 million a year.

at this time, the occasion it is here, anxious to see the planning as we go through the remainder of 2022. jack: costco is interesting, it is known for attracting wealthy people and has a tailwind if everybody wants cheaper gas. are there other companies like tjx that does well at both legals? >> one thing we are seeing, they will be a beneficiary of inventories coming in in dislocated places and they are watching closely placing their orders, more is still to come but they will benefit for their customers who may be want to bargain more than need a bargain. jack: interesting dynamic when someone over orders in one thing it can sneak up on the shelves. >> exactly. that will benefit outlet stores also as long as there are enough people regarding the gasoline prices.

jack: a little bit of a pullback on online sales. >> we are seeing a pickup in traffic. everyone wants to engage in social engagements, shopping is an activity and whether it is friends going out to purchase new dresses or to get something to drink somewhere. all of a sudden they are going into stores and buying things they haven't had in the past, styles are updated, sizes have changed for people in the innovation of product is there. i'm seeing the traffic pickup and moderation in online spending. jack: one more detail looks attractive? >> talk about makeup you got to look at that also. thank you very much. you see, son, with a little elbow grease, you can do just about anything. thanks, dad.

that's right, robert. and it's never too early to learn you could save with america's number one motorcycle insurer. that's right, jamie. but it's not just about savings. it's about the friends we make along the way. you said it, flo. and don't forget to floss before you brush. your gums will thank you. -that's right, dr. gary. -jamie? sorry, i had another thought so i got back in line. what was it? [ sighs ] i can't remember.

jack: the market can be scary for investors but it can be a great time to buy. andrew bary is the author of this week's cover story and you write it is time to celebrate for income investors. something i'm interested in is pipelines. explain. andrew: pipelines are vital to the energy industry, they transport natural gas, diesel fuel and gasoline and the outlook for these companies is quite good, stocks are down 10% to 15% from recent highs and you can get dividends of 5% to 9% which looks secure and growth as well. jack: there's talk about building these things, it could be good for investors. andrew: it hard to get

permitting us for pipelines, some are 90% built but can't get final approval so it is difficult environmentally but you could see movement because given the biden administration is realizing energy independence and security is important for the country. jack: one thing to explain to investors is multiple ways to buy into these things, there are tax advantages but an accountant might be angry. andrew: many stocks are partnerships with energy transfer, energy enterprise products. they are taxed as partnerships and corporations like williams corporation and tinder morgan. they are favored more from a tax standpoint and a little west in the partnerships right now. jack: it is a return of capital so you don't pay taxes and then a big one.

andrew: the taxes can be complicated. investors prefer the simplicity of a 1099 which you get with a corporation. you are getting a higher yield to deal with complexity. carleton: we spent a ton of time talking about bank stocks. the common stock, yields around 4%, which do you favor? the common or preferred? andrew: depends on your risk tolerance. if you are risk-averse and want more security you can purchase the preferred, it yields 6% up from 4%, talking about jpmorgan, wells fargo, goldman sachs. investors who want a tax advantage, usually it could be a good deal. ben: companies are putting out better snacks to lure their workers back. i've been talking to chips ahoy

and the other old backpacks, office buildings, real estate investment trusts, which should investors prefer? the big yields on offices and malls or the scrawny yield on sturdier stuff like data centers and warehouses. andrew: rents are through the roof. you try to rent an apartment, you can be the landlord and equity residential, avalon bay, mid-america and they are down 20% from highs earlier in the year, fundamentals are important. carleton: a lot of excitement in the muni market. advantages for people who want to get in higher taxed states like new york and california, what are the opportunities? andrew: the yields are 1% to

2%, if you are in a state like california or new york with high state income taxes, 4% yield is equivalent to 7% on a taxable bond, with better yields right now. jack: if you live in california or new york you want to fund that invests in state bonds and see what the issues are. andrew: you basically benefit from the triple tax exemption in new york city or california. could be a good deal for residents of high tax states. jack: junk bonds are scary and headed into recession. is that it time you want to be exposed? andrew: yields are 8% or higher and that is under 5% at the start of the year to get paid for the risks you are taking

now. mutual funds, etfs, it is a pretty attractive area right now. jack: carleton and i are big fans of our bonds, 9.2% yield, tricky to purchase them. andrew: for a family, for each individual will, views are above 9%, there is a tax advantage. the tax deferral, high current yield. if you want to invest $10,000, tip yields 8%, it is very liquid and you don't have the liquidity issues you would with an eye bond. jack: we should be looking for great opportunities in the market. andrew: a big selloff is

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visit foxbusiness.com/"barron's roundtable". jack: you smell a good deal at the mall. jack: i want to go to the bath and body works downgrade, jpmorgan says look out, they've seen seasonal merchandise from last fall and winter. i was looking at the website, stores are too perfume emacs for me to walk into but i see a lot of pumpkin scented candles, punk and peak on waffles, 2450 on sale for $14.50. vanilla pumpkin marshmallow,

sweet cinnamon pumpkin. i'm initiating the carol melt pumpkin swirl, fourth of july week and no one is thinking about pumpkins. you turn them around on ebay closer to halloween and make 20%, no guarantees, you can thank me later. jack: i don't buy the pumpkin spice latte. on a more serious note let's go to actionable ideas, what is yours? andrew: target is down 40% this year, the company misjudged consumer demand and got stuck with too many inventory in stock has been hammered but looks like a washout, stock is around 140, treating 11 times next year's earnings, 1/3 of the price-earnings multiple. jack: they are making inventory mistakes.

carleton: as i look at at&t yielding 5%, it is a defensive play. even in the downturn we won't turn off our cell phones. jack: thank you very much, great to have you here and thank you, jack. check out this week's addition at >> and the fox studios in new york city this is maria bartiromo's wall street. maria: happy we can to all but welcome to the program that analyzes the week that was an helps position you for the week ahead. i am maria bartiromo. happy july 4 weekend everybody parade there is frustration in america this weekend and it is growing as inflation soars the majority of the country now believes we are on the wrong track. i'm spoke of the former ceo of home depot and chrysler. of what needs to be done right