stuart: all right, let's reveal the correct answer, it is canada. fascinating. i didn't guess this one. canada has a coastline of 151,000 miles long. there you have it. lots of beach places in canada i would guess. ashley: very cold. stuart: thanks for egg, ashley, great to have you on the show. appreciate what you did for me on friday. neil, it is yours. neil: thank you for that. we're following the same selloff you have been, down 600 points. the real anomaly to watch, the yield on the two-year note got a little bit higher than the 10-year note. people look at that as a sign slowdown or recession is coming. coming close to even, a tad more on a 10-year than a two year but defend much of this has a view you can't win. used to be if we get strong economic data that would worry

the markets. they start thinking all of sudden the federal reserve would continuing a aggressively raising rates. saw that in the factory orders report. flip that around you talk about recession, nevertheless you talk about oil, in and out of $100 a barrel. that has maybe the market is telling us as yield on some treasurys. we do know that about the only beneficiary in all of this seems to be the u.s. dollar, a haven of course when the world gets a little antsy. certainly coming at the euro's, you know, risk here because right now that is at a 20-year low versus the u.s. dollar. all of these crosscurrents at the same time. to ken polcari, slatestone chief market strategist. always good to see you, my friend. kenny, what is looking at this the way the bond market is reacting, then stocks are reacting it is interesting that they kind of seem to be on the

same page anticipating a slowdown. do you? >> yes, i do and i've been talking about it for a while and i think friday's atlanta gdp forecast where they lowered second quarter gdp to negative 2.2%, well even below the first quarter of 1.5, was a catalyst to get this going. gave people over the weekend to consider it, consider the fact gdp forecast is not only going to go negative on thursday, negative 1%, got revised much lower. that brought up the issue are we in recession. most people think we are. other people are saying no, not until 2023. i am not not sure what part the country they're living in. the stock market and bond market says if we're not already there we're much closer than not.

neil: maybe it telegraphed what happened in commodities. page one of "the wall street journal" we were talking about this last week how some commodities have broken down certainly the last few weeks, and i include lumber, cotton, tin, corn, wheat, soybeans. >> right. neil: not all the time but a lot of the time what happens with commodities since they're sort of like the ingredient that fuels the economy, they go down. you think that translates into the rest of the economy down the road, not all the time. but i'm wondering whether that is something we're missing or not appreciating? it is a big deal, it isn't a big deal, where are you on this? >> it's a big deal. as the dollar gets stronger commodities come under pressure pause they're priced in dollars. stronger dollar puts stress on commodities. i think it's a big deal. i think they have been foretelling. i think commodities have gotten way, way too out of whack. the swung way too far. some is normal retracement.

look at oil, down nine dollars on the back of this report, number one what is happening in the north sea. number two this demand destruction that is supposedly coming. you will get the wild volatile reactions. that is what you will see. part of it is pullback, reaction to prices way overdone. i do think it suggests that the economy is getting weaker. people need to be prepared for recession is coming if not already here. they will need to you know, set their portfolios up respectively. neil: kenny, what do you make of, i don't want to make a huge deal of it right now, it is noteworthy even though the dow is down a lot, about 600 points, the nasdaq has clawed back to almost even money, down 4.4% as we speak a let of big technology names come back. a lot having to do what happened on the interest rate front, sensitive to all of that, depend how long that lasts, what you do make of it?

>> nasdaq is also down the most of all the indexes. high growth sexy names have gotten absolutely creamed this year. any sense that the fed will blink or pivot will cause a lot of money to go into those if for nothing else a trade, because they're all overdone. the fact that rallied back. now they're taking money out of the broader names does make some sense to me. you saw what happened to the 10-year treasury today. that has gone lower. talk of the fed blinking, maybe pausing is now all the chatter. that is helping that sector. neil: you know if you're worried about inflation to get back to what we're talking about, you don't see it in gold. it is now a six-month low. you don't see it in silver. down about 3%. you don't see it in copper, that is down 5%. i'm beginning to wonder whether markets moved from inflation now to recession, recession, recession? that is topic one, two and three? >> well, it certainly is the

headline, right? funny how inflation is very much a concern but now the media talking about the coming recession, now with the atlanta gdp suggesting it is already here well ahead of -- neil: where is the haven, kenny? where is the haven? i mentioned the dollar in the aggregate, a lot of people, some trade currencies but it is not exactly for the novice so if gold isn't a haven, quasi-havens are some bonds, all of that, where is money going to find a safe place? >> certainly going into treasurys. you will see yields come down there. see movement into utility names, they're boring, defensive. they will pay you to own them. look what they did on friday, they were up almost 3% utilities because in anticipation of this realization that it is going to be tougher times ahead. neil: all right, kenny, we'll watch it very, very closely.

talk to you just a bit, my friend. kenny polcari following all the developments. dow down 590 points. nasdaq is still down but not the two, 2 1/2% it was looking at right after the market opened, i believe about that so we're well off that so some of the premier names are having a bit of a comeback. oil, big story, seems to be slip-sliding away in and out of $100 a barrel. look at that, down to 99.41. i tell you that is bargain. what you get used, 110, $120 you start thinking gas prices starting to come down not what we're seeing with the price of oil. we following that with mike summers, american petroleum exstatute president. great to have you back. >> thank you, neal. neil: before we weigh into washington developments, mike, what is doing on with oil? is this global recession issue,

a slowdown issue, what? >> i do think there are a lot of concerns in the global marketplace about pending recession here in the united states and throughout the world and that is one of the reasons why you're seeing some slippage in oil prices but the long-term demand picture looks very bright. demand continues to go up in the united states. we had a record holiday weekend in terms of travel. so we expect demand to continue to outpace supply both in the united states and throughout the world. neil: all right it comes all with the backdrop where exxon indicated for its second quarter, the final, final numbers are not out but anticipate as 18 billion-dollar profit for the quarter. against revenues that is not so nearly eye-popping but it's a big number. once this is officially out, we get the official numbers, you know the president will do a beeline to say, see, these guys are making money hand over fist at your expense. what do you think of that? >> well, we have to remember

exxon lost $20 billion in 2020. as a consequence of demand destruction because of the pandemic. so these prices go up and down and revenues are going up and down with the price of oil. the truth of the matter is that the oil industry continues to make far less every quarter than pharmaceuticals do or for that matter tech. no one is calling for windfall profits tax on apple at this point. we need to realize prices are very volatile particularly in time of war in russia and ukraine and at a time of industry still adjusting to the pandemic economics and coming out of a very significant demand destruction that came out, came as a consequence. neil: you know, without politicizing the issue, mike, whatever people think of the traditional fossil fuel industry, your entire industry still supervaluable important the way it is treated here, abroad it is a very different story where germany is boosting more traditional fuel sources particularly coal for that

matter but again in a similar affinity with oil among some key european players. dare i say the movement behind climate change itself. so they're open to that. we are not what do you think of that? >> well it is pretty unfortunate that the president of the united states this weekend actually used the independence holiday as a weekend to really slam small businesses who really are the ones that are ones that the coretailers in the oil and gas -- neil: he went after gas stations. my local runs my station, he is a wonderful human being he is not a billionaire, not a millionaire. i don't think he is multi100,000 heir. he run as gas station, he is who he is. all of sudden refiners of own about 3 1/2% of all gas stations in the country. i'm thinking myself, that doesn't jibe what we're hearing.

>> your local retailer, the guy you referenced makes more money on candy bars and coca-cola then selling gasoline. neil: he certainly does with me. he has a quick pick attached to it and i empty shelves but i digress. go ahead. >> it is too bad, at a time the president of the united states should declare energy independence on the july 4th holiday, instead he decides to slam small business owners. the truth we need to invest in oil and gas development here in the united states. we need to invest in more refineries more supply here in the united states, so we don't have to be dependent on foreign regimes for our energy. neil: we're not quite there yet, are we? mike summers, thank you very much. mike is with american petroleum institute. president and ceo. targeting gas station owners, you have to have a appreciation how the industry works, independent operators, next time i see my gas station guy, no i'm not paying you for this twinkie,

i'm taking it. but it is amazing. it is what it is. getting some more updates on tragic shooting outside chicago and more details about how this seems to happen at the unlikeliest of times, in the unlikeliest of places, parades in copenhagen over the weekend in a shopping mall. no matter where you go people feel a need to look over their shoulder for a good reason. after this. ♪ new projects means new project managers. you need to hire. i need indeed.

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♪. neil: all right, local officials do plan to update us on that highland park, illinois, shooting yesterday that killed six people, wounded more than 30. grady trimble is there with more. what are we learning? reporter: neil, any minute now we're expecting law enforcement officials with the highland park police department to walk out of those doors and give us an update but let me start with what we know right now. we know that suspect was arrested about eight hours into a massive manhunt yesterday evening. a officer with a neighboring police department spotted the suspect in his car about five miles from the parade route. they took him into custody in the middle of the road after surrounding him around 6:30 last

night. police identified the gunman robert crimo iii. he allege he had grew up in the community where he caused so much harm. he posted disturbing videos and picktures on social media, including one depicting the aftermath of what looked like a school shooting. we're also learning the names of two of the six people killed in the horrific attack. jackie sundheim was a school teacher at local synagogue. they confirmed the it on their website. nicholas toledo was visiting from mexico as well. 30 other people were hurt, victims ranging from eight to 85 years old. police say the gunman opened fire on the crowd below from the roof of a downtown business. that was around 10 yesterday morning at highland park 4th of july parade. he got up on a unsecured ladder

attached to the building. in terms of the weapon police describe i hads a high-powered rifle. the mayor of highland park said on the morning news this morning that he obtained the gun legally. people who were at the parade yesterday, including parents and young children described running for their lives as gunshots rang out. >> boom, boom, boom. one after another. it's a sound, i don't know how i'm going to get it out of my head. >> my daughter said, mommy, i don't want to die. i was holding back of her friend's head. i said, honey it is all right. let's keep running. reporter: several of the concerning social media posts were removed from various sites in the hours following yesterday's shooting. we still have one big question, neil, which we hope to ask in this press conference set to start any minute, that is why this alleged gunman opened fire on a crowd of innocent people

just enjoying a parade on the 4th of july. we'll keep you posted. neil: grady, thank you so much. grady trimble. you know, we always ask these questions after these tragic events. we were asking the same type of questions more than 30 years ago. i don't know if any of you remember, a woman named laurie dann. she stormed a win net can, illinois elementary school. one child died. she took a families who damage. the man who was shot, that young man survived, grew up to be an fbi agent. he was kind enough, ills kind enough to join us now offering his expertise. i always find his insights particularly remarkable. phil andrew, thanks for joining us. >> thanks for having me, neil. neil: i know, i always wonder in your case, phil, when you hear these type of incidents, besides

the deja vu, the commonality, i don't know enough about laurie dan, what you went through decades ago, that was hardly routine. sadly these days it is. it is common theme. an out cast, someone who had troubles. a lot of people didn't seem to know the depth of those troubles. what are you gleaning what you're hearing from the alleged shooter? >> very similar, neil. what we find both as an fbi agent and survivor of that shooting 34 years ago, even the facts of this case, as with many others that we have a despondent person disconnected from the community showing signs of predisposition to violence or ideas around violence and then easy access to a dangerous weapon and it ends in these kind of tragic consequences where they sort of unleash on the community and then we're left a little bit guessing what the

motive is. but what we had is some preincident indicators that somebody was disconnected from the community, reaching out or crying out with their social media posts or other behaviors. we missed opportunities for interventions. whether they be social interventions, law enforcement intervention, using law enforcement tools, like red flag laws to get the guns out of their hands while they're despondent. neil: you've again on to do a lot of good from the horror you experienced, besides the fbi work, anti-violence for the catholic church for one thing but there is certainly now a new era which live, people think i can't even go to a parade without thinking something could happen, or the in case of cope copenhagen, shooting the going shopping or in aurora, colorado, shooting at a movie theater,

gives people pause when they go in public wherever they are, that is something unprecedented, isn't it? >> it really is. the images, these experiences, they really drive a lot of trauma, a lot of fear with people, even statistically though that mass shootings like this are still less than 3% of overall gun violence in our country they really do contribute to our consciousness that drives a lot of that fear. and, unfortunately, you know, we're not doing enough to prevent these things from happening and, i think, in some cases folks are justified in bringing some of that near to these public spaces because we need to do more to keep dangerous weapons out of dangerous hands. neil: i'm just wondering if anything in the legislation that con grass passed would have -- congress passed would have addressed something like this? nothing was in this alleged shooter's past that would have

telegraphed problems. certainly online there was, a lot of worrisome postings and the like over many years, but what do you think? >> well you know i think there are interventions really need to be holistic. that in some cases legislation and having some law enforcement tools you know to stop people from getting guns, whether it be through background checks or the ability to remove weapons through restraining orders, those are great tools to have. but we also have tools where the community kind of self-identifying folks that are in need or despondent and, a much softer approach where maybe there is some social services. maybe a city social worker. maybe the school has an opportunity for an intervention. so we really need to think about this with all the intervention opportunities, even the community ones where the community itself can raise concern about somebody not necessarily to get them arrested but to get them to resources, get them the connectivity they

need to bring them back into the fold and off-ramp them from the cycle that drives this kind of mass violence. neil: are they always the answer? i'm thinking of the parkland, florida, shooter, who was getting special attention and understanding from the school and from the district. he was an odd duck, he stood out. they were trying to do everything they could to help him, facilitating his staying in school. some people say that led toot problem down the road. i'm not here to say that was the case, what is the balance there between trying to help someone who is alienated and as interest is zood, recognizing -- ostracized, roansing in some cases evil is evil? >> there is when the interventions are taking effect when you're seeing progress, when you are not seeing that progress. you need a clear escalation to

distance themselves from dangerous weapons and in some cases you can ask families, they will step in and remove the dangerous weapons just because they know that -- is trying to support it. in other case i think law enforcement needs to intervene. those tools are now more and more so available but you're right, in some cases those interventions don't work, somebody needs to step up to say i don't think we're seeing progress we need to say. let's make sure they don't have weapons while they continue to our intervention attempts. neil: i always learn a lot talking to you. what is remarkable about you, i'm not blowing you smoke, my friend what you have been through, the good that came of it. i don't know if i could do that. i fairly can say i would not have been able to do that but very good to see you. thank you very much. >> really kind to say, neil, i think what you find is when tragic things like this happen, people want to memorialize them with action and really have

impact in these not happening again. i think that is what you're seeing in the work that i've dedicated myself too. neil: not everyone joins the fbi or gets a chance to be approved to join the fbi but, these are all unique insights from someone uniquely qualified to address them. phil andrew, former fbi special agent, still trying to take good of an incident that darn near killed him 30 years ago. we have a lot more coming up including what is going on right now with all of the flight delays. they're still delayed. a good many still canceled. people survived the weekend. although we're told a good many are stuck at the nation's airports. more on that after this. ♪ fishing helps ease my mind.

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♪. >> is this the new normal or is it going to get better? >> this can't be normal. we can't have this number of cancellations and delays and accept night what is the message to the airlines? >> we're counting on you. we're looking to you to provide the service to match the tickets that you sold. the bottom line is they need to deliver. neil: but what exactly does it mean they need to deliver? i will ask the transportation secretary pete buttigieg later on "your world" four eastern time on fox news. to madison alworth at newark liberty international airport where delays subsided a bit. industrywide, it was a weekend of thousands of flight cancellations d delays. on it goes. madison, what is the latest there? reporter: hey, neil. the latest we're coming off a chaotic july 4th travel weekend. anyone in the list of delayed or canceled flights would love to

know the answer from secretary pete buttigieg. we saw widespread problems. taking a look over 21,000 delays from friday through monday. over the same time period when it comes to cancellations, 1800 flights canceled. these troubles are coming after major airlines slimmed down summer schedules because of staff shortages in order to avoid problems. this is even after $54 billion in pandemic relief that was supposed to keep airlines operational through the pandemic, but even still the industry lost 31,000 workers by 2021. many of those positions which range from pilots to ramp staff have not been filled, leading to these problems now. you know i've been talking to passengers all morning. i met one individual, jay, he was supposed to fly into this airport last night. but then there were problems. he had to book a last minute ticket to get here today. take a listen. >> i spent around $1000 for booking through jetblue for four people. i have totally booked day today

for work. and pretty much i'm running to, it is, i cannot do it because getting delayed. so we have somebody to come and pick it up. we were supposed to be here yesterday night. reporter: $1000 later on top of the ticket he already bought he is finally here. jay is unfortunately far from only one with problems this weekend. american airlines had a glitch in their scheduling platform which allowed pilots to drop thousands of trips in july, a headache as the company tries to avoid disruptions. in a statement to fox business the airline said in part, quote, we already have restored the vast majority of the affected trips and do not anticipate any operational impact because of the issue. today is looking better. i have some good news. so far we had 285 canceled flights. now of course if you're on one of those flights that is day ruining, trip ruining, but compared to friday, we are doing slightly better. so trending in the right direction. let's hope it continues that

way. neil? neil: have to do better by now with the whole weekend over. madison, thank you so much for that. we're looking at the dow down 517 points. we're off the worst levels of the day. nasdaq was briefly turning around. a lot of this on interest rates slip sliding a way. that has been very much underpinning for the markets and this inflation worry here that seems to have subsided a bit, at least recessionary impact of all of this. this occurs with the backdrop too of inflation, right? that is a big deal. right now the administration is apparently toying with the idea of ending tariffs on china, that had been in place since president trump. let's about to mark meredith with more at the white house on where that stands. reporter: neil, good afternoon to you. we're waiting with bait the breath to see if the decision on tariffs could come in matter of hours or days. there are hints of this as the white house is looking to roll back number of different tariffs

imposed by the former administration which allowed them to bring down costs of goods on number of consumer staples. we're looking to get the exact list what it will be and under consideration. it is certainly possible that cokicked down to tomorrow. the president will go to ohio to deliver a speech on the economy. i would imagine it is certainly possible we see any major announcements saved for then. the white house briefing 3:00 today. we'll see whether or not we get any new tea leaves where things stand. the thing about gas prices administration is facing a lot of questions on. they have been blaming russian president vladmir putin and u.s. oil and gas industry for high prices. over the weekend the president drew a lot of outrage over a tweet he issued, my message to companies running gas stations setting prices at pump. this is time of war and global peril. bring down the the price at the pump to bring the cosco you're paying for product. with outrage and mockery from

u.s. energy producers. he seemed to get amazon founder jeff bezos. u.s. oil and gas industry fired right back. we're working on it mr. president. enjoy the 4th of july. make sure the white house intern that posted this tweet registers for econ 101 for the fall semester. it is not a surprise, that everybody knows gas price ares up. 4.80 a gallon average but they're down 20 cents in mid-june when it was a record. the political calculation that the white house has to face as midterm elections are looming, president faced repeated questions about his economic strategy even though as you mentioned there are constant talk whether or not the recessionary fears are going to slide off or not. the president though in his speech last night for the 4th of july mentioned things where they stand with the economy. seems to hint he knows americans are not always thrilled about what they're seeing. president biden: our economy is growing but not without pain.

liberty is under assault, assault both here and abroad. reporter: we're not expecting to see the president back on camera today. any major economic news would likely happen tomorrow when he is going to be in cleveland to talk about all things with the economy, neil. i will let you know if we get any word from the white house. maybe that is the news coming in there. neil: i think a trip to pick you up. they didn't like you were saying. put meredith in this thing. thank you, mark meredith. kenny polcari is with us. kenny, i would be remiss if i didn't mention stuff mark is getting into. one is idea of easing tariffs on chinese goods. americans pay those tariffs. we pay the extra amount for that. it is not china, although it will help china if they're removed with the understanding that more americans would buy more of those goods. where do you see this going? >> you know i'm not sure it is going to help in the situation because if it would have they would have removed the tariffs a long time ago. i'm into the necessarily sure

removing them will help any consumer in the u.s., feel like suddenly they want to buy more chinese goods. i think inflation in this country will overrule that and i think you will start to see the demand destruction. it will start, i don't think it is there yet, but i do think if this remains elevated like this, inflation remains elevated like this i think you will start to see that as we move into the fall and i don't think tariffs have anything to do with it. neil: there is a flip side to the higher inflation environment and the idea it will spur higher bank savings rates, cd crates, particularly for those on fixed incomes like social security, it will adjust and help adjust the cost of living adjustment, so-called cola for social security could go up 11% next year. what do you think of that? >> i think that for someone on fixed income of social security it has to happen. the cost of living has gone out of control. anyone on a fixed income, seen that, hurt them the worst. from a savings rate while rates

interest rates may go up on savings accounts, it will be very difficult for people to try to save extra money with prices as high as they are. whether it is energy. whether it is food, whether even trying to go on a vacation, prices have gone through the after. people stopped doing that they have stopped going away. stop buying unnecessary items. maybe they take the extra money, put it a way. it might be a small benefit but i think, i think the rate of inflation is going to really get in the way of that. neil: kenny, thank you very much. my friend kenny polcari, slatestone wealth, chief market strategist. a lot of people emailing me, messaging any way they can on the social security hike, cost of living adjustment could go up 11%, many inquiring whether they should start getting social security early. don't want to miss out on the boat. you don't miss out on the boat whether you take the social security right now or delay it until 70 where you get maximum benefits. it is always factored into your payments and returns. in other words it ends up being

11% more, that is factored into the combined social security benefit you get when you want to get them. you don't miss out whether you shouldn't pounce into this, the social security, the earliest possible age, 62, or latest possible age, 70 plus. we'll have more after this. a. it's easier to do more innovative things. [whistling]

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il: ne: ght. prespresonferencon i highh land, , illois,uts,uts,5 les rth of chago.ag fewetails tllegedededed shooter, robert crimo. they believed crimo pre-planned the attack for number of weeks. he used a high-powered weapon. i don't have the identity of the exact weapon purchased in illinois and appears to have been purchased legally. he fired more than 70 rounds from this rifle. other sites say it was all over in a matter of about 18 seconds. again, that is all we have for

the time-being. six were killed in that. more than 30 injured including two others we're told who are clinging to life. we'll give you more details when we get them. stay with us. dad, when is the future? um, oh wow. um, the future is, uh, what's ahead of us. i don't get it. yeah. maybe this will help. so now we're in the present. and now... we're in the future. the all-electric chevy bolt euv with available super cruise™ for hands-free driving. - dad. - yeah? do fish get thirsty? eh. find new answers. find new roads. chevrolet.

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don't use if you're allergic to cosentyx. before starting get checked for tuberculosis. an increased risk of infection, some serious and a lowered ability to fight them may occur. tell your doctor about an infection or symptoms or if you had a vaccine or plan to. tell your doctor if your crohn's disease symptoms develop or worsen. serious allergic reaction may occur. best move i've ever made. ask your dermatologist every search you make, every click you take, every move you make, every step you take, i'll be watching you. the internet doesn't have to be duckduckgo is a free all in one privacy app with a built in search engine, web browser, one click data clearing and more stop companies like google from watching you, by downloading the app today. duckduckgo: privacy, simplified. neil: all right. russians are saying right now full control of the east of

ukraine. president zelenskyy ukraine has disputed full control part but not disputing the need for more aid and help what could be$50 billion to rebuild the country when all this ends. let's get the latest from nate foy in lviv right now. reporter: neil, we're seeing a similar approach from president zelenskyy as we've seen with military aid and get as much help as ukraine can possibly can. this is not a local project rebuilding ukraine but the responsibility of the entire democratic world. he said 80,000 buildings in the country were damaged during the war and you mentioned price tag of $750 billion to rebuild the country. that is an statement right now. the price tag will go up as the war continues. looking forward to peaceful times, president zelenskyy is talking about the nato alliance today. listen to this. >> translator: we need security and safe space even conditions

when we're not in the alliance. the main goal to have no gray safety zone. we're on this path, and they're must be certainty and certainty now. reporter: neil, president zelenskyy tweeted this today after meeting with british prime minister boris johnson. he said the two talked about not only security guarranties but food security for the world. president zelenskyy says russia is blocking the export of over 20 million tons of ukrainian grain, something russia denies after pulling out of snake island in the black sea. look at this video, neil. in the east a russian offensive was held back by ukraine forces. this is the donetsk province of donbas. this is expected to be the russia focus after taking the luhantsk province last couple days. back out here in lviv. we heard air raid sirens ten minutes ago. the much bigger concern is the possibility of a bela russian invasion.

we met with the mayor's military leadership. they confirmed that the military is working with the city to make sure the resident and critical infrastructure in lviv are protected in case that happens. send it back to you, neil. neil: incredible. nate foy in lviv. want to go to general yak keen jack keane, that the possibility of belarus getting involved? what do you sympathy about that? >> i think it is unlikely. possibly rockets, missiles, things like that for sure. belarus doesn't have much military capability. they have only a few brigades and their performance would be actually worse than what the russians are doing. even if they do get involved it will not be militarily decisive. certainly what's been reported here is significant. the russians have taken the luhantsk in our words the province that is the eastern province of the donbas. they started in april, neil this

has been really tough for them. they focused all of their resources on this one axis of advance to be able to take the remaining cities in luhantsk. it has cost them dearly. they have suffered significant casualties, so much so, that even putin this weekend after he pinned medals on the two four stars involved in the operation, and by the way they were involved at the tactical level, very unusual for people of that rank, and he said that his forces needed to rest. and that's an understatement. they need to refit and rearm. it will give the ukrainians, neil, an opportunity to conduct counteroffensive operations. we'll see if the supplies and arms and munitions problemmed them will keep coming because without it they won't be able to succeed. neil: are you surprised, general, best of our knowledge, no one has tried to overflow

vladmir putin? there has been no coup, there has been no uprising. there might be things happening behind the scenes but what do you think? >> well, first of all a couple of reasons for that. number one, it's a great question. but the majority of the people in russia are still supporting this war based on putin's narrative of the war which is a false narrative, that it is ukrainians who started this because they were conducting genocide against russians who were in the donbas region, russians and also russian-speaking ukrainians, excuse me. so it's a completely false narrative. the second thing is that putin has knocked off all of his political opponents and he has been intense about that ever since he took power back in 2000. much as we've seen president xi

do so successfully in china as well. so the idea that somebody can put something together and do that, they would have to take control of some part of the military, and based on all the evidence we have putin's military is still very loyal to him. i think that is very remote something like that will happen. neil: general, i always wonder how this ends. obviously drags on and on. i cannot imagine putin leaving the country and all the land that he has taken over back to you guys, i'm out of here. we already heard in polls, 89% of ukrainians involved leaving any land with the russians, they're dead-set against it? where does this go, how does this end? >> we don't know for sure but there are some pretty unsatisfactory endings for the ukrainians and president zelenskyy. freezing in place not good for

them because that is what we were in 2014. that means there is hundreds of thousands of russians in southern ukraine, that the ukrainian economy is literally cut off because there is no exports, no agricultural exports coming out of the country because the russians are blockading it. that would economically devastate the ukrainians. even if there is some kind of negotiation i don't believe zelenskyy would ever agree for russians taking more territory than what they had prior to february 24th. the best of all options obviously are that zelenskyy is able to achieve what he wants and that is drive the russians off of his land, at least the territory that the russians have gained since february 24th and even with that, putin will still have a presence there and i don't believe he will ever give up on the aspirations to take the country over and topple the government. this is going to be a problem

that we're going to be dealing with for years to come. neil: for years to come, wow. general, thank you, i think, jack keane, fox news strategic analyst. of course a genuine hero in our country and looking at the sacrifices he made for our country. i think that carry as little more gravitas than your typical analyst. dow down 574 points. ken fish, what he says happening after this. ♪ -- ken fisher. [acoustic soul music throughout] [acoustic soul music throughout] [acoustic soul music throughout]

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neil: apparently a lot lower. very good song. because we've had down weeks for the dow, 12 of the last 14 weeks. charlie brady will correct me instantly if i am wrong. particularly in the nasdaq we have an interesting anomaly going on. a lot of big tech names are down a lot from where they were.

they are weathering this a little better because we've seen a slide in rates. when we see a hint in the bond market and other securities that disproportionately hits a lot of nasdaq stocks but less so right now is a 2 year and a 10 year are close to being at the same rate. a lot of people look to these developments and say that is a sign or preview of coming attractions where it is a slow down or worse, basically yielding close to the same. inverted for a while yielding 10 year but almost always previews a recession but one of the weird things going on in the market where the recession is fixating fears and not so much what the federal reserve does. what the federal reserve is doing is expected to bring a slow down nora recession. what is the greater worry right

now? there isn't much of a flight to quality. anything right now, the us dollar itself, running to gold, not running to oil which was $100 a barrel for a while. outside dollar denominated assets, in the end would include the treasury and bond markets. fox contributor jonathan honig and susan li, how can i take advantage of strong dollar, the 20 year high, currency trading is stock trading and people brush up on it. you see this hitting the retail community, we are not seeing any other investor.

stuart: susan: the cheapness you get in 20 years, from a stock perspective, you heard this from big companies, microsoft warned of a market, because currency head winds, a strong dollar means cheaper currencies elsewhere since the yen or the euro and that will impact earnings from overseas when they bring it to us currency, that will hit the big tech companies hardest, apple has a huge footprint overseas and big technology names, that is the big concern. neil: when you look at these markets, how individual investors respond to this battle, inflation versus recession, the federal reserve hopefully doesn't overdo it on rate hikes, anything that hints at a slow down, that isn't good either, right?

>> and etf tracks the value of the dollar, using the due diligence, against other currencies there's an etf for that. zuckerberg, musk, jamie dimon warning about the state of the economy. they are the economy. that has been a favorite of retail investors, susan followed it closely. it is more than cut in half. extraordinarily week, there are so many negative signs consumer confidence is at an all-time low that tends to be a buying opportunity in terms of the market, there is not a bullishness out there yet. neil: sometimes they get right in front of you, not to use this as a harold, getting a mortgage in this environment but rates have come down,

nothing near where they were but a long way from the high. what i am asking is whether investors take advantage of this not so much for stocks but real estate activity. susan: real estatewise you should expect tracking of the 10 year treasury yield coming below 3%, looking at the lowest since may, seeing that reflected and these are growth concerns reflected in commodity prices, you have west texas, one hundred dollars a barrel, the lowest we have seen in six weeks, this is the kind of demand destruction targeted by the federal reserve, the reason they are raising interest rates so they can bring down inflation with a blunt instrument picking up interest rates so let me ask you this. if you want to see some positivity in the market look at speculative tech, high-growth names, zoom, roblow

x, they are rallying today, the treasury yields, have earnings far in the future making them walk more bargainy and cheaper. stuart: to your point, anyone's guess, another thing i want to ask, we will get the next wave of quarterly earnings, the estimates are they will move north of 5.5%. year over year revenues might be north of 10%. i was thinking when i saw that we still have s&p 500 earnings growth but it is slowing, nothing like it was, half the pace of the prior quarter but still growing albeit not as rapidly. what do we make of that? >> the market is always looking at those multiples. when you are buying a stock you

buy a multiple expense. high valuation names, microsoft, facebook led the market for so long they are not leading the market, the strongest groups have good earnings and high visibility which is big pharmaceuticals, merck, johnson & johnson do extraordinarily well, you have to go where the action is and it is not in big high-tech names despite the bounce today. neil: i want to thank you both. taking a look at how you are feeling about this economy you fly and travel and have fun. maybe post covid get me out of here though folks have a lot of trouble getting out of there. charles watson at hartsfield international airport with more on how things went and how they

are going right now. >> reporter: good afternoon. pretty packed, sites like this one behind me, long lines at tsa checkpoints and long lines at ticket counters made less then perfect weekend for millions of americans airports across the country, despite numbers can not quite recovering to pre-pandemic levels. let's look at the breakdown, 2 million people traveled through tsa checkpoints nationwide each day this weekend, the grand total was not quite as high compared to 2,019. you see the numbers on your screen, the us fall short by 1.2 million travelers, airports continue to stay busy. >> lines are pretty long. a lot of cars out here, we are on the same page as a lot of people. a lot of peeling -- people feeling that right now. >> even with lower travel numbers, airlines are

struggling to keep up with demand after being forced to let go of staff during the pandemic, they are scrabbling by hiring flight attendants and pilots, pilots unions pushing for higher pay after record over time this year. >> we take great pride in delivering passenger safely and on time and doing our part by picking up record amounts of overtime so delta keep the operation running. >> airlines had to cancel or delay thousands of flights over the holiday weekend between july 1st and july 4th, there were more than 22,000 delays in 1800 cancellations. not every one faced a frustrating travel experience, listen to this traveler. >> got really lucky in that we

haven't had any issues, no delays, no cancellations, got lucky. >> not every one so lucky for the holiday travel weekend. we reached 2000 delays according to flight aware and we are seeing more cancellations than we saw monday and sunday so looking to be another busy day. neil: we have promising news on the baby formula front but it could be limited. let's at the latest from jeff flock who is following that. what have you got? >> reporter: forgive the blowing hair but that's the price you pay for being on the tarmac with the air hub in philadelphia where in 2 hours time, the latest of the fly formula shipments from australia, maybe you see those aircraft behind me, 747 will be

here shortly, the government says the biden administration, 37 million bottles, 8 ounce bottles or equivalents have been brought in by formula, today bubs, the company from australia, has a contract for 25 million of those bottles, 2 million are coming on aircraft today. despite that the shortage continues, not as bad as it was but typically you have 10% if you look at the numbers out of stock stores in the middle of june, last time we got numbers, 25% weekending june 5th, '27% weekending the nineteenth. if you look at some stores you will find formula particularly regular formula, specialty formulas tend to be out of stock and depending where you go you might not get any. this upset republicans and democrats when it comes to leadership.

rafael warknock writing to the fda, quote, it is clear there are serious issues at the fda. it is alarming it took 6 months for the fda to act, talking about the fact they got reports that michigan plant in september, didn't start an investigation until february. we hope to have life pictures, the latest one coming in. ups partnering with the federal government to try to solve this problem. neil: in the meantime, we are telling you about inflation and all fat, the supply chain and the problems ongoing with that. kelly o'grady taking a look at one of the key areas it hit the hardest, chip shortage. what can you tell us? >> reporter: good to see you.

frustration over the chip act is sitting a boiling point with the legislation stalled in congress, chip stocks taking it on the chin with major players in the semiconductor industry warning of more delays and possibly waning consumer demand. before the pandemic some firms complained of chip shortages but now it is much worse. gm currently has 95,000 vehicles without chips and with evs using more chips than a gas powered car that sector is hurting more. chipmakers like intel and taiwanese companies announcing plans to bolster the domestic supply chain morning these investments are contingent on passing the chip act, $20 million ohio plant may not move forward, the case of our expansion in ohio will depend heavily on funding from the chip act, that funding moved more slowly than we expected and don't know when it will get done. time for congress to act. $5 billion texas plant will not

happen either without funding and secretary of commerce gina rome ondo says it will not be passed by labor day. democrats push revamped billback better legislation, lowers prescription drug prices among other contentious issues. minority leader mitch mcconnell tweeting let me be perfectly clear, there will be no bipartisan us ica as long as democrats are pursuing a partisan reclamation bill. they are accusing mcconnell of choosing to help china outcompete the us. the political theater is coming at a momentous time. chipmakers taking it to europe and asia as these regions offer attractive subsidies, the us would not only lose out on jobs but more share of the tech landscape. neil: we are looking at the july 4th shooting at a parade outside chicago. if you are not safe going to parades, a lot of people feel

unsafe going to shopping malls in light of the copenhagen mall shooting, where are you safe and how it is affecting us in our thinking and whether we go out at all. ♪♪ your shipping manager left to “find themself.” leaving you lost. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire

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neil: this past july 4th weekend it wasn't just highland park, illinois violence erupting across the country. it is going to be almost a common scene. molly lines looks at all of up from boston. >> reporter: you said a remarkable weekend, july 4th operations going on and in philadelphia during the fireworks show as the concert was going on, shots fired, scrabbling crowds, two police officers were wounded but survived, very chaotic scene, this is close to the benjamin franklin parkway. unclear if the officers had retargeted but one received the grays wound to the head, that bullet was found in his hat. the other officer hurt was a member of the montgomery county bomb squad. both were treated and released from a local hospital. >> we don't know if this was a

ricochet from celebratory gunfire or if it was intentional or if this was someone taking the shot from on range. >> reporter: littering the street in downtown minneapolis, investors work on following a shooting at blum island park where people gathered to celebrate the -- several in critical condition. there was no pause in the violence plaguing new york city. dozens were shot across the city throughout the holiday weekend from july 1st through july 4th there were 38 shootings, 50 people wounded and tween 9 killed. this happened in various incidents across the boroughs including the tight confines of a bodega in britain were two young men, wave of violence giving investigators a lot to do. in a continuing effort to get guns off the street.

neil: i remember quite a few people saying this one in highland park, illinois means you can't go to a parade, add it to the long list, going to it all, similar efforts here. it is giving people pause not to the point they stop going out, they are free. what do you tell them? >> to carry on life as usual. back on these shootings, just another day, across the united states, an individual targeted this parade.

on the other hand in philadelphia someone letting shots go, the two police officers are okay, random violence across the 5 boroughs, the criminals that are out there. that's the whole thing, they are changing their game, that is where it has to stop. neil: the shooting in highland park, paris planned this attack for weeks, a high-powered weapon purchased in illinois, fired 70 rounds, one thing came out as well, even though he himself didn't relay concern from those who knew him online, what he said and posted online, scary as all hell, what did you make of it? >> we had this conversation, social media needs to be held

to a higher standard than they are now. they cannot randomly pick and choose targeted politicians or commentators the way they want, they have to monitor everybody as this fell through the cracks because they don't have a system set up that you have a keyword. it is one thing to see lee harvey oswald at the college will heisel student doing an essay on it but when you combine that with other things it should pop up on their radar and they immediately should be mandated to notify law enforcement so these things don't fall through the cracks. that's not what is happening across america. it is a big political football and that is all it is. instead of getting to the heart of the issue and saying this is what we need to do to change it that is not happening right now. neil: even with this legislation, thank you very much. retired nypd lieutenant, sees

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neil: just when we hoped we would stop the second half of the year on better footing the dow jones industrials dropping 500 points, interest rate slip sliding away with oil, south of $100 a barrel which many argue that presages a slowdown or a recession. you can assess that is a good thing or a bad thing.

let's go to ken fisher, investment founder, one of my favorite guests here. it is good to see you. >> thanks for having me back, good to be with you. neil: let me ask what the markets are telling us today, you are a big picture guy and you focus in the to buy take weeds here but the dollar is the only game in town today. how do you see it? >> what people are saying is today's the day the market is starting to price in the reality of recession. the fact is it is ridiculous to make a presumption about a single day in the market. what is interesting today, counter to things i have been saying recently, all this year there has been a high correlation as i said on days that are up, where tech is up more than the market, days that are down, text down more than

the market, we have more down days than up so tech has been lagging but it has been hugely correlated to up or down so counter to what is going on today, you tell me which direction the market is going and i will tell you if it is better or worse. that isn't happening today. doesn't have significance? i don't know but i will make a point, which is this period, my 50th year in this business, this phenomenon, this year to date reminds me a lot of what people said about this time shortly before i got into this realm of endeavor during the relatively small bear market of 1966 which was still talked about a lot when i got into the market in 72. that bear market followed 24% bear market top to bottom starting in january, don't make much about how this is the worst start since 1970 but that

start was almost identical to the start. it went on a little longer but had double market going on the next ten years rallying 50%, so many similarities in that bear market, rising inflation, fed talking of tightening and some tightening and raising of rates if you want to call it that. prior political discord associated, not dissimilar to the protests associated with black lives matter, democratic presidency, house, senate, midterms go the other way which they did ultimately. all of those features were very parallel. what didn't happen was the recession everyone expected after a market. neil: sometimes it takes a while even if you don't see an outright bear market, you could see a nothing market, you mentioned the 66 experience,

1000 on the dow or teasing of them, didn't close over 1000 to 1982, looking back at the tech bear market when shattered after the boom, in 2000, you weren't back in the money until 2010. are we in for something like that? >> i don't know and i don't think so. may maybe people don't want to listen to me on that. the market tells me every day. in fact, when you don't know you are wrong it is a bizarre statement. if you think about that period if you decided late in the period as so many do, this is a bad time for the category that is doing badly, in that case tech, you miss the point after that bottom for the next 13 months tech beat the market and was up relative to the market

by 60% normally what happens in a bear market is that which lags the most on the way down, bounces the most early in the next bull market the blue market went on another 30 months after that but the fact is if you missed tech over the first 13 months, moving away from tech today is almost certainly a long-term mistake. what happens next week, next month, i don't have a clue. if you were at this point in 1966 you couldn't have predicted what happened in the next couple months thereafter. neil: a lot of people draw the 70s comparison, jimmy carter, outside the fashion statements which i'm happy to forget, i don't see it. might get there but no doubt back then it was crazy back

then, there were long lines to fill your car and all that. i'm not playing politics with this, we are starting from a much stronger labor market than we were then. i'm curious what you make of that comparison. >> to remember a period like this, it to be at serious risk of dementia, the fact of the matter is if you go back to my 1966 analogy, unemployment is 8.3%, labor shortages were pretty common, it was hard to get workers, the fact is folks didn't much want to be in the labor force at that time. i don't think this period has any real similarities to the 70s when you had rising inflation for a long time, now back to the 1960 period when we

have the ukraine war and the relatively early phases but the ongoing phases of the vietnam war and the parallels are more to that evolutionary time period after a longer, prior run. a run that for most important ways started similar to a sharp 2020 bear market followed by continued upturned act a lot like a prior market. that's parallel to the market but largely started in the 50s and kept going, 1966 bear market but didn't get a real bear market until the 1969-70 bear market. neil: what can you tell people, a friend i was talking to, i understand you don't lose anything until you sell it. $200 a share for apple, that is

his high. i don't know when he purchased it but now, 35, 36 and doesn't necessarily want to wait for it to return. don't know if we are at that capitulation. i know i lost a lot from my highs, everything i thought would come back has not come back and i can't take this. >> going back to the 1966 period, the beginnings of simon and garfunkel, slowdown, you move too fast, got to make the moment last. most people have a long time period again. they will see multiple bull and bear markets from this time on. if you think you can time the

bottom of this bear market, you are probably a fool. if you are probably a fool and do something foolish the older i get the more strangely patient i become, knowing at my age as a septuagenarian i have multiple bull and bear markets and the most important thing is not trying to avoid the bottom of this bear market but to make sure the next few blue markets ahead. neil: a lot of people sticking with it or long-term, perspective based on age. the person about to retire, what do you tell that person? >> it is a pretty simple issue. be sure you have enough cash set aside to get through a few years no matter what. you should always have that. the higher returns that stocks, other liquid assets, this bear market going back to my point

about this being ghostbusters like, is going to other places isn't very rewarding. trying to hop and jump among risky and downward moving places is further to a fool's game, this in my opinion for most everyone is a time for patients to look to a longer-term future, don't be sure about the wiggles that happened, when people tell me i have been right all year. i have been right all year. i have been right all year. which people say to me. be careful because that is very dangerous turf than people who say i have been wrong, got to do something. my point is don't just to do something, stand there. calm down. patience is a virtue. neil: we will see. not quite as mature as you where longer-term is maybe lunch tomorrow but we will look at that.

if you're going to quote simon and garfunkel, more more relevant is maybe getting when a man loves a woman percy sledge, maybe that gets us away from the market. just throwing it out there. thank you. >> thanks for having me on. neil: or you can't hurry love with the supremes. a market that doesn't exist, see what i did there? i guess you did. a little more after this. ♪♪ [whistling]

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neil: is not just oil company heads. a lot of corporate chieftains are getting impatient with this president, that could be a worry for this president.

charlie gasparino following this and more. charles: not just elon musk but jeff baeza's. they are in position to go after the biden administration and the president himself. basis doesn't quite run amazon, the ceo does it. musk is musk, say what you want i guess. other ceos are mostly quiet but if you talk to them behind the scenes, big investors and ceos are worried this is an administration that has no clue what to deal with the economy. it keeps coming up, i make these calls regularly but often do the matter president biden says something kind of art or not smart and the statement about the gas stations not reflecting the decline in

prices of oil and this has something to do with the refineries that are price gouging, so out there so i made some calls and it comes back to this. corporate america doesn't think he has the chops to deal with the economy, to major investors. make no mistake, the volatility in the market is baked into a white house, president biden said deal with inflation by raising taxes. and that deals with inflation. it is not just this but many things, where does this leave the president?

if you talk to ceos they may not say they will vote for trump but they are talking relief when the republicans take over and that is what i keep hearing, the crew that is running the show is not ready for prime time at least that is what they are telling me and a lot of these are democrats. it is bipartisan based on what i am hearing. neil: you should see what they say about me. the hat trick we got there. thank you very much, charlie gasparino. a lot more coming up. this was an odd one. california governor gavin newsom doing commercials but here's what is weird about these, showing in florida. ♪♪

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break free from the big three and switch to xfinity mobile. >> freedom is under attack in your state was republican leaders are banning books making it harder to vote restricting speech in classrooms, lysing women and doctors. i urge all of you living in

florida to join the fight. neil: gavin newsom of california with these ads in the sunshine state to using ron desantis and floridians in general, looking to be a mecca for a lot of fed up with high taxes and everything else going on in california but what is good for the goose -- i don't even know what a gander is. kayla magee probably does, very smart woman of the washington examiner. looking at this strategy i am beginning to think governor newsom's strategy to get president biden to decide not to run for president, here i am. >> he seems to be positioning himself or potential 2024 run and a lot of democrats are thinking the same thing but the irony behind newsom's florida message is so many of his own middle-class and even upper-class citizens have let his state for florida in recent years.

10% of all inbound migration to florida was californians in this year alone. the irony is stark. neil: whatever the taxes are in california, low taxes make italy's look tame. real estate still very strong, prices beyond crazy. a number of people want to be there. he is taking the row v wade decision and other things desantis has done to say is it worth, is this really what we are all about? i wonder, that as a theme, will it galvanize the base? this comes down to an angry democratic base. >> absolutely. republicans would be foolish to treat newsom, to not treat him as a threat because he does stand a good chance of selling

the message he can make progressivism work. california makes up 20% of the economy, still a successful state in spite of its taxes, in spite of the burdensome government regulation and the woke culture, if this is newsom's strategy there's a good chance it pulls and a lot of the progress of who are fed up with biden and moderates who thought biden would be the candidate for them and if he doesn't run again in 2024 newsom will be a dangerous threat. neil: if he doesn't run again, a lot of people say that might happen or might -- in this position, a lot of the big-money guys in the party are reportedly hoping he opts not to run, that is the president. normally when something like that happens it is tougher the party in power whether they are challenged out right with the president steps down to avoid a fight like lyndon johnson did in 1968, that party goes on to defeat.

>> it is a tough situation. biden has no choice but to say he's running again. anything else would force him to a lame-duck presidency for the rest of his two years in office and an admission this experiment allowing him to run the country has been a failure at his party doesn't want him to run again and if he were to say he wasn't going to run again it would start a different battle who would replace and whether it is kamala or newsom or pete buttigieg and they want to avoid that as long as possible. neil: they will resurrected january 6th committee hearings, next week or the week after. are they having an impact on how republicans feel about donald trump and picking up the mantle again? >> i doubt it. donald trump has a solid grip on the party and a voice of influence especially among republican voters. as long as he has influence

over republican voters republican leaders are going to be wary of publicly challenging him. that said, after the midterms we will see how those go. into 2,024 if he does decide to run again there are plenty of other options who will also throw their hat in the ring. it could be a messy primary but there is a lot that remains to be seen. neil: seems like ron desantis and others are going to run whether donald trump does or not. it used to be they would hold back until they got a clear signal from him. >> absolutely and you he reports that glenn youngkin is considering it. neil: he just got elected governor. >> has virginia election was so successful i am not surprised he would position himself as a candidate who is able to win a swing state that donald trump lost in 2020. there are going to be a lot of great candidates. i hope they decide to run even

if trump does run because the party would benefit from a challenge but we will see. neil: kaylee magee of the washington examiner, governor youngkin might take advantage of the time like barack obama, joined 99 other senators when running for president, each looks at the moment and seizes on the moment. we will see. ♪♪ ♪♪ . .

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cool. introducing elevance health. where health can go. neil: all right. i tried for charles payne. we're down 484 points. we we have nasdaq. he has all the screens. >> i have all the slides ready. thank you, i appreciate it. good afternoon, everyone, i'm charles payne. this is "making money." breaking now recession watch sent markets tumbling out of the gate. as neil alluded to there are poxkets of buying strangely that make the establishment more frustrated there are bargains. the question, what should you be guying? i have the ultimate bull, brian belski will join me. presid