so denver airport is twice the size -- >> hope you don't lose your luggage. >> that's right. hey, ash, thanks for all the help today especially for last friday. your numbers were fantastic. well-done, young man, great stuff. >> thank you. stuart: my time is absolutely up. but here is neil to take it away. neil, it is yours. neil: thank you, stuart. i was thinking of you, stuart and ashley by extension of boris johnson, the opposition leader going at each other in parliament. that is wild stuff to watch. i wish we had that here. stuart: yes. neil: you know? stuart: very different system when you think about it. really is. neil: i love the way they can criticize someone. my good man, you're talking out your -- and it is wild. stuart: in parcel they have to be apart a sword's length apart. that is the ruling. neil: i couldn't believe it.

now i forgot the guy's name going after johnson, only like a couple feet tops away. stuart: yeah. neil: just ripping him a new one. stuart: there. neil: there is johnson taking it. that his turn. you don't want to be on delay. stuart: i used to take dates to house of commons when i was a young lad. those were the days. neil: that is wild. you must miss that, stuart, that is the way it should be done, talk to their face. let them know. thank you, my friend very much. boris johnson is barely hanging on by really his nails right now. we're looking at better than 2who -- 27 left the ministerships around him or what they call equivalent of our subcabinet level. they are abandoning him fast and furious. implications for europe, even

for ukraine, remember boris johnson has been the most obvious face of nato when it comes to constant visits to the ukraine and helping president zelenskyy. there is also concern what comes after before great britain right now, the conservatives, who is that backup choice? it is not easy to decide right now but they're abandoning him very, very fast. we're also following as well the latest developments on the oil front as prices slip slide away, 96, 97 bucks a barrel right now. that is translating into lower gas prices, how long that lasts anyone's guess, what driving this the economy is going to be driven. >> a slowdown or worse. what we always say on the show, the solution of high prices is high prices. we'll monitor that. lydia hu following all these developments right now and the spillover effect. lydia. reporter: neil, as you said seems like the oil markets are tumbling again today, as we take

a look, west texas intermediate. looks like it took a dip before i got on air t was down around 3% earlier. looks like, oh, down much more than that, down around 7% now this is following a decline of yesterday, the worst one-day dollar decline since march happening just yesterday when it closed at 99.50 per barrel. brent crude also down here. you can see that is under $100 a barrel, down about 3%. yesterday we saw it settle around 127 a barrel. that was down over 20% from the settlement high back in march of this year. now these trends may seem like a positive because when oil prices are down, gas prices generally fall. today the average price according to aaa, 4.77. experts predict that prices could come down even further. watch here. >> i certainly believe even without a recession, based on how things are looking we could

see some 4-dollar prices by end of the summer. lower gas prices. we could drop another 25, 50 cents over the next month or two. reporter: the reason for the tumble, well that is the problem here. wall street is worried if a recession hits, it is going to cripple demand, consumers, industry won't need to or be able to buy as much gas. now banks are trying to project the oil market into the future. analysts with citi are forecasting crude oil could call to $65 a barrel by the end of this year, fall to $45 a barrel by the end of next year. that happens as interest rates rise and risks of recessions mount. neil. neil: lydia, thank you very, very much. i caught up with the transportation secretary of the united states pete buttigieg yesterday on fox news and asked him what is behind this and whether it is fair to cite the oil companies even though over the last 40 years have been a dozen investigations ftc otherwise refuted the notion they were acting as a cabal.

anyway we took up the issue yesterday with the secretary. take a look at this. your administration has blamed this on the you know the war and that was certainly a big factor but gas prices have fon up 50% already before the war. so to me, that's half the blame, not all the blame. >> what i'm saying about it is when it comes to these sky-high gas prices drivers are mad about it, i'm mad about it, the president is mad about it. oil company executives are thrilled because it is good news for them. neil: then with prices sliding on fears of the global economy is slowing maybe they're not so thrilled with all of this. go to north dakota senator john hoeven kind enough to join us right now. senator, good to see you, this notion that there are evil forces at play and oil guys are trying to manipulate these prices or at very least, sort of sit on them and take profits and run, what do you make of that? >> look it is biden

administration's energy policy. they came into office saying they were going to reduce the supply of fossil fuels, shift people away from fossil fuels, they were going to put policies in place to do that and they have. in fact when the biden administration started we were producing 13 million barrels a day in this country. now we're down to 11 1/2 billion million a day. that is because of their energy policies. neil: where does this go, prices come down all right but for the wrong reasons. the economy slows. people not taking many trips. they, activity slows. companies start laying off workers. where do you see this all going? >> it is supply and demand. you know that very well. and so if we go into recession, obviously that dramatically reduces the demand. so of course the price goes down but the reality is, you got to bring the right kind of energy policies that foster more energy production, not only does that

create more supply and bring prices down the right way, it puts people to work in this country. it creates economic activity and it is also a national security issue for ourselves and our allies. neil: senator, a popular theme out out of the secretary buttigieg as well as the you hear from the administration there, is nothing to compel or motivate oil companies to produce more oil. that it is perfectly fine the way it is now. when i pointed out to him you know demand is such that supply could effectively double and that still would be in favor of demand over available supply. so ifer this really interested in making money it is in their doctors to get producing all the more so they can make a lot more money but that doesn't come through. >> they're trying to produce more but they're stopped by energy policies of the biden administration that prevent them from producing energy on federal

lands both onshore and off. from policies that restrict the ability to build needed facilities, whether the keystone xl pipeline or expand refining capacity. one of the bottlenecks we don't have enough refining capacity. they can't get permits to expand refineries. they can't get permits to build the infrastructure. they can't get permits for leases they have on federal lands. then they're blocked there. then they can't get more leases on federal lands. again it is the energy policy preventing them from producing more supply here at home. at the same time this administration goes to saudi arabia or to ask venezuela for more supply? that is ridiculous. we need to do it here at home. the administration needs to take handcuffs off our energy producers. neil: we have plenty much here to your point, senator. thank you very much, john hoeven. beautiful state of north dakota. if you're looking for summer trips that is a great place to go, outstanding. want to go to another outstanding human being, edward lawrence right now. he is following the president's

upcoming trip to ohio. i guess, edward, the whole purpose to win over blue-collar voters, particularly concerned about their pensions. can you update us? reporter: solidify the union base here. what we'll hear from the president, touting the economy, what he called the greatest economy he is presiding over, also the low unemployment rate but the president will talk about a new plan, under the american rescue plan. money to bail out pensions for unions to make sure they're not in danger of going under until 2051. they will be fully funded. what we will not hear anything about a possible recession. the atlanta fed tracker estimate could be pointing in that direction. i asked that here at the white house an here's the answer. >> we believe we're in recession, no? that is my answer to you on that. we helped steady at 3.6 unemployment rate. consumer spending remains strong and above prepandemic trends. businesses investment remainses strong and household balance

sheets remain strong. so we do not believe that we are in a recession. reporter: however 88% of americans believe the country is going in the wrong direction. the top three concerns, inflation, gas prices economy, above gun ownership, above health care, above crime. economist for the international monetary fund worries about reaction to policy mistakes that led to the reaction we're seeing. >> i'm worried they will take one mistake, both fiscal policy, monetary policy, having run the economy much too hot and go in the other direction. step on the brakes too much. reporter: monetary policy side we'll see what the federal reserve has to say as the fed minutes come out right after your show. neil? neil: thank you very much, my friend, edward lawrence at the white house on that. want to go to douglas holtz-eakin, former congressional budget office director, american action forum president. always good to have you here.

with the slide in oil prices you invariably start thinking inflation could be less of a problem, slowdown, out right recession could be a real problem. all that revenue, you know from the days running cbo begins to dissipate. then we're in more trouble than we thought, aren't we? >> yeah. it is part of the basic imbalance in the federal budget. it is relying heavily on revenue surge that came from the recovery. it faces higher interest costs almost certainly as the fed raises rates. it is highly indebted federal government, big interest costs. compare interest costs last year to this year the cbo concluded it raised deficits $1.8 trillion next 10 years. that is the bigger than the tax cuts and jobs act. it is enormous liability for the u.s. taxpayers. this is a tough moment for the economy. tough moment for the federal budget as a result. neil: doug, can we refinance our debt or at least some of it to

sort of prepare ourselves for that? >> the treasury has an outside committee that advises it on essentially the structure of borrowing. will we borrow short term, medium, long term. that commit concluded there is not a lot to be gain by fussing with maturities you borrow. they continue to borrow at fairly stable composition of debt. neil: in an environment where the depending on the rate and maturity that's pegged to that debt if rates go up another two full percentage points, depends where in the spectrum you're looking, that could add hundreds of billions of dollars to our debt service, right? >> probably more. i would say if you get a percentage point, looking trillion dollars in additional interest costs over 10 years. neil: wow. >> these are all very big numbers. neil: are you surprised then our dollar remains as attractive as it does? it might be a case of being the tallest midget in the global room, i get that but by the same

token, that is where money is going. if there is beneficiary from all of this there is a dollar. if you're a u.s. multinational company that is not the greatest news, foreign earnings translated in dollars, you get fewer dollars for them. so it's a double-edged sword, right? >> if you think about it, that money flows into the u.s. it pushes down rates at the same time the fed is trying to push up rates. neil: right. right. >> so nothing cuts cleanly in this environment. you know really gets hard for the fed to manage the rate structure, to get the economy to slow, but not actually stop. we've seen evidence of slowing but we also still have a labor market that is adding couple hundred thousand jobs a month and very tight on vacancies. people looking for jobs. so there are a lot of cost currents in the economy right now and there is no clean read to be had. neil: i'm wondering you talk about a tight labor market which it is but i also see, doug, the

pendulum swinging away from the workers favor to more the bosses favor and workers might not be so cocky anymore, shouldn't be. what do you see happening? >> i certainly think that is what we should be looking at. if you look at the goods and services market we've seen households go through their pandemic savings and we've seen real disposable income decline. we finally saw a dent in household spending in the last reports. so now all the focus goes to the labor market. meaning employers, looking at a softer labor market don't hire as many workers. can be choosy who they hire, not offer raises we've been seeing the past year-and-a-half. that is really the thing to focus. if that moves quickly in the direction of softer demand for labor, then you've got some real evidence of a slowdown. neil: if it's a global thing, it would also impact companies and countries that buy our debt, right? i mean i just wonder, what are

the ramifications of this? >> this is a global phenomenon. and again, you like to have a nice clean answer this is good news or bad news but it cuts both ways but look at china. china slows down has all sorts of problems with covid. that means the global slows down, less inflationary pressure, oil prices go down, food prices go down, you think wow that is great but at the same time the supply chain problems got worse and they push inflation the other direction. you're always juggling the impact of supply and demand chains across the globe. it is a very, very tough environment. neil: we'll watch it closely, doug, good catching up with you, douglas holtz-eakin, former congressional budget office director. he knows what he speaks. we have a minor selloff of corner of wall and broad. people are focused increasingly on the slowdown evidenced the slip-sliding oil prices and now

all of a sudden treasury notes and other yields coming down, almost presaging a recession if not that, a severe slowdown. we're on top of that. also on top of the betting right now what the federal reserve will detail in the minutes of the meeting a few weeks ago but it's the activity in the fed funds futures markets that bear watching right now what will happen a few weeks from now. eight times as many of these people who bet with money think the fed is going to raise fed funds, the overnight bank lending rate, by 3/4 of a percentage point, not half. eight times as many expect a 75 basis-point hike in rates to essentially double what they did last month again this month. stay with us. ♪.

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♪ neil: mortgage is dropping in this country down 5.4% from a week ago. it is actually down 8% over the last two weeks. that despite slip-sliding mortgage rates right now at

30-year fixed averaging about 5.74%. remember it inched up over 6%. one thing i follow a lot, applications to refinance a home but they too are dropping but at a much faster clip, 8% for the week, even in light, in lieu of what is going on with overall decline in rates. if you're putting this in some perspective versus a year ago, refinancings are down more than 78% from a year ago. it doesn't take much to do a lot of damage. we'll keep an eye on that. keeping an eye on what the federal reserve was thinking about this, fomc members, federal open market committee members decide the fate of rates meeting a few weeks ago. we'll get more details how many members were considering a big aggressive moves going forward, not just the 3/4 point, we saw that one but the growing betting that we'll see another 3/4 point hike in a few weeks when the fed meets yet again.

let's get the read on all of this with the surevest ceo rob luna. good to have you. are you in the camp we'll see another big hike, maybe 3/4 of a point? >> yeah, i am in that camp, neil. the fed as you know was well behind the curve on raising interest rates, trying to combat inflation and i think they talked themselves into the position where they will be almost forced to do that. that being said almost important to the stock market is going to be some of the language we hear. if we continue to hear we're in robust economy, things are great, pie-in-the-sky type of language out of fed that will be issue for the market f they look reality, see what we see in the most recent data, start talking down the economy, i think with a 75 basis-point hike we could see a rally in stocks. neil: sometimes you could put the fed in a damned if you do,

dammed if you don't, don't signal a 3/4 hike in sent. seems market is on the side of being aggressive on inflation even at the risk of slowing the economy, right? >> yeah, i think so. that is what the fed has pretty much telegraphed. it is interesting what you said the fed has been raising rates. we saw the 10-year at 3.5% a couple weeks ago, down to 2.9. we got inversion of the yield curve. yield, i think the most telling data we've been talking about for a while, the gdp now information that the fed looks at is saying that the second quarter looks like there is going to be contraction over 2%. put that in line what we saw the first quarter, that means we're actually in a recession now and we'll probably hear about it sometime in august. neil: so what are we looking at ratewise? the markets again, the rates the fed has no control but certainly take their cue from what the fed is doing seem to be thinking a recession is more than likely. >> yeah. that is absolutely it.

neil: but how does that carry forward? >> well, how does it carry forward? look what is happening right now. as you said the market is telegraphing that. you're starting to see oil fall out of bed. take a look at chevron, look at some other stocks there, absolutely getting decimated. fed funds futures, neil, is actually predicting we'll see a rate cut by july of next year, 12 months from now. neil: did you see that? i saw that as well. i thought, wow that would be a quick turnaround but is that a signal they think the fed will produce this desired slowdown or that they will have gone too far? >> yeah. i think so because remember outside of rates this time we have this quantitative balance sheet we're dealing with unwinding. all these things very tough for the market. i think we are in recession but look, what you need to remember as an investor, stocks that led the way down, those stocks started dropping you know last year, last november.

technology, consumer discretionary, actually a day like yesterday after that bad news on the economy came out, neil, we saw restoration hardware, some of the most expensive software out there, williams-sonoma, 300-dollar salt and pepper shakers. those stocks were up double digits. as an investor that might be counterintuitive. neil: very nice salt and pepper shakers. let me ask you finally where do you see implications for the stock market? obviously if rates back up depends on the end of the spectrum, i know what you're saying, that is competition for stocks, right? that is safe, guaranteed money for investors. maybe they're more inclined to protect what they have than risk what they don't want to risk? >> that is actually it. i think that is what has been going on. you've seen pension funds rebalancing, buying back into to some bonds as you see rates go higher, brought yields down, that competition. neil, we were at zero to 50 basis points on the 10-year,

that is why you saw cryptocurrency rallying. anything out there that attracts liquidity is going up. that changed. crypto is the canary in the coal mine to say hay the fed has gotten it right but i think look, going forward, there are names held up pretty well, i'm sorry, consumer staples, energy that could bring the overall market down but you have to look at your screen. microsoft, apple, al fabet, some of names beaten up 30, 40%, those might be names to look at, not the safety trade. neil: you're a good man, rob. you can explain it ways that i can understand. rob luna, surevest ceo. keeping a close eye on the markets. from these minutes, perhaps get an inkling going into the next fomc meeting a little bit more than two weeks from now. meantime boris johnson says he is not quitting even though at least 27 conservative party members and some top ministers announced they are leaving. they have lost confidence in

him, but quoting from a speech on the floor of parliament, i'm not going to step down. he says that is the last thing this country needs is an election. what many in his own party appear to be saying we could deal with an election. we'll have more after this. o yo? these straps are mind-blowing! they collect hundreds of data points like hrv and rem sleep, so you know all you need for recovery. and you are? i'm an investor...in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to... nasdaq 100 innovations like... wearable training optimization tech. uh, how long are you... i'm done. i'm okay.

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>> will you planning this tomorrow? >> of course, mr. neil. >> next week? >> i appreciate today is a day of events. though this meeting not quite resembled a moscow show trial but certainly they were -- must be quite difficult. i pay tribute to you for turning up today. >> i wouldn't dream of being anywhere else. delighted to be here. >> having said at which point does it become impossible for the queen's government to continue? >> i really think that you know, that, you're underestimating the

talent, energy, and sheer ambition of, of members of parliament. ♪. neil: all right. this is big news across the pond, folks. if you think about boris johnson just a few weeks ago survived a no confidence vote within his conservative party. was getting heckled and abused by fellow conservatives who think it is high time he should go. 27 top ministers and underministers, the equivalent of his subcabinet have all abandoned him saying he has lost their confidence. a lot has to do with the appointment of a guy to serve a top role in the johnson administration who had a nefarious past, with some scandal back to him. it just shows poor judgment, conservatives say and the better part of valor would be for him to step off the stage and go.

we're following all of that. we'll talk to a top british watcher, used to serve with maggie thatcher. she had to endure something like this. it didn't end well with her or prior conservative government leader as well. this is building, and snowballing quite, quite quickly here. at least britain they curse you out to your face which is something we deeply admire here on the show because we like embarrassing people, preferably behind their back if we can get away with it, if you do it to their face, that is a hallmark moment. keeping an eye on that. keeping an eye on the selloff on this neck of the woods. susan li taking a close look at technology stocks first and foremost. susan, what do you have? reporter: boris johnson is definitely compelling but did you know that rafael nadal is down two sets to one in wimbledon right now? i would say over the lawns there in wimbledon, that is pretty compelling, don't you think? neil: okay.

continue. reporter: so i want to talk about tech, yes, a trillion dollar tech giant. we have amazon, 200 million prime subscribers. guess what, they're getting into food delivery. that usually sends a chill over the incumbents and into this market of course. amazon announcing that deal with grubhub to offer food delivery to its 150 million u.s. prime subscribers. grubhub will wave some delivery fees for some restaurants on offer. amazon has the option to buy 2% into grubhub, as much as 15%. if you check across the pond, grubhub's dutch parent rallied 15% in amsterdam on word of this news. competitors like uber, uber eats and doordash selling off. this seems to be a bold andy jassy decision. the only second ceo in amazon's history, succeeding bezos last year. eptering his second year on the job this week. amazon is adding 5% surcharge in

april to sellers to cover higher inflation costs. walmart doing the same. making that announcement, they will charge an extra fee to sellers to cover higher transport and fuel costs that will kick in on august the 1st. walmart news is up on this announcement, because they're protecting their profit margins or trying to. apple's macbook air, next generation chips will be inside shipping next week. you have to remember apple makes its own chips for iphones, ipads, mac books, ending multidecade partnership with intel, one of the largest chip-makers on the planet all of sudden. goldman sachs cutting their price target down to 130. goldman says the slowing economy means hardware sales will be down 2% the next two business years. still consensus on the street neil is still 160. katie huberty morgan stanley, most respected apple analysts calling for 185 for the stock. apple reports july 28th this

month. neil: the stock has already been cut in half. how much more bludgeoning can it take? susan, thank you for the tennis update. i appreciate that. quite the athlete. reporter: quarterfinals. neil: absolutely, bocci ball championship next week. i will cue you in own that charlie gasparino is not only on the tiktok thing because all his popular dances are on that but government regulators sniffing around right? >> you haven't seen me do it, neil. the pressure is building on tiktok whether its shares its information with the chinese government. tiktok is a chinese-owned company. it is owned by bytedance. very popular. billion monthly users of the trump administration sought to get it banned. various deals fell through because they were worried about the data usage that the chinese

government is actually siphoning user data and using it for espionage purposes. senate intelligence committee is getting involved. mark warner, the ranking member, has written the fcc to launch a investigation after a batch of new charges are thrown out there about sharing of this data. marco rubio, the ranking republican is joining him and we do have breaking news how tiktok is now responding this just in from sources close to the company are telling the fox business network that tiktok is reaching out to political operatives right now for pr and lobbying help on capitol hill as this pressure builds. so they're going out there to change the story, at least get their story out there. this is bipartisan, pressures building on tiktok over this allegation it is sharing user data with the chinese government. the chinese government, it's a big surveillance state. yes, people are legitimately worried some of this stuff can

be used for espionage purposes. what tiktok wants to hire people to better tell its story on capitol hill. that story is simply this, it is taking massive steps to safeguard user data. that the chinese government is prevented in a lot of different ways. now they will prevent them even more. the problem that tiktok has right now, neil, there was a bombshell report in "buzzfeed" which someone gave "buzzfeed" tapes where tiktok executives were talking about the sharing of data with the chinese. i mean they were actually talking about it. the pushback from the company to that story was pretty benign or bland i would say like, we're trying to fix that. so this has got capitol hill and parts of government right now, fcc commissioner brendan carr, you know up in arms. he wrote, he has written to google and apple saying take tiktok off your app stores.

tiktok is looking to fight back now but this is hardly going away, given the fact that there is bipartisan pressure on them. again, look for tiktok to hire people to try to tell its story, but man, it will be a tough story to tell out there given this environment. back to you, neil. neil: hard to dance around it, right? >> [laughter]. neil: triering to bring it home. >> you, you are so funny. neil: you, you. charlie, thank you very much, our friend charlie gasparino, the best of the best. i should update you right now in this conservative revolt we've seen going on in britain. what is interesting here, i might have misstated that william ra xp was an opposition leader, opposed to the present leader, head of his own party, prime minister of britain, boris johnson. he is a tory mp. that is like being top senator over there. and saying that you know, right now the prime minister is no longer fit to govern and he

should go. he joins a number of top ministers to boris johnson and a total of 27 individuals who formed what might be the equivalent of the subcabinet, all bolting from him. that could be akin to say half of president biden's cabinet, all democrats, abandoning him, leaving him, saying he is not fit to govern. furthermore extends to government agencies, they too have had it. that is the british equivalent of that. bloody ugly. we'll have more after this. ♪ lemons. lemons,

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hi, i'm nancy. i've lost over 80 pounds with golo. because you did. i have tried to lose weight in the past and i've lost 80 pounds several times, but i was not able to maintain it. with golo, i've maintained this weight loss for over a year. it just works. neil: facebook looking for revenue wherever they can get it, providing incentives for companies to do movies, hot netflix shows, apple shows, you

name it in their locales will reap huge dividends. kelly o'grady in los angeles on how that plays out. hey, kelly. reporter: hey, neil. it is kind of an ironic moment because you have california governor gavin newsom slamming florida's governor ron desantis trying to bring business back to the state but now the golden state is facing a new challenge, this time to hollywood. you can see the iconic paramount pictures studio lot behind me but hollywood is not just entwined with the state philosophically, it's a key economic yen rate tore. states are trying to take that with tax credits. more than half offering film incentive. georgia in particular has become the go-to state. they issued 1.2 billion in film tax credits. many marvel movies shoot there and the walking dead. companies are boycotting the state where company steps into issues such as abortion and

voting rights. arizona is entering the issue at the right time. arizona offers tax credit of 15, 20% in production expenses and capped at 125 million a year. filming brings in a ton of to the community as a whole. >> maul sized, people yum sized, large businesses here want to see the film production come back. offering discounts to go off and beyond to other states that may have gotten complacent what is going on. arizona is very hungry. reporter: as other states grow hungry california loses out. between 2015 and 2020 it missed out on 2.6 billion in wages and 354 million in tax revenue. many of the states offer cheaper cost of living. neil, we spoke to a number of folks, hey, they go shoot a movie in arizona, new mexico, look around, this is a pretty nice place to live and then they don't come back. there could be more of an exodus than we've already seen for

california, neil. neil: just what the state needs. thank you very much, kelly o'grady in los angeles on all of that. by the way for those of you who have been following this brutal, horrific attack, july 4th parade attack, we're getting some new kind of creepy updates on it that the suspect in that attack had planned another attack and a separate attack in the same day. we'll have more after this. i need indeed. indeed you do. when you sponsor a job, you immediately get your shortlist of quality candidates, whose resumes on indeed match your job criteria. visit indeed.com/hire and get started today.

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tell your doctor if your crohn's disease symptoms develop or worsen. serious allergic reaction may occur. best move i've ever made. ask your dermatologist ♪. neil: all right. highland park shooter in illinois has now claimed responsibility for the shootings there. that was not a shock. the fact that more charges beyond the seven killed could be forthcoming, well that could be the bigger news development. let's go to grady trimble in highland park with more. grady. reporter: neil, the suspected shooter appeared in court this morning to face zephyrs agree murder charges. the judge ordered he be held without bail. the alleged gunman didn't show any emotion during the hearing and he only spoke to say he didn't have an attorney. as you mentioned we are expecting many more charges including attempted murder and aggravated battery charges for each of the more than three

dozen people injured in the massacre. we have also just learned the alleged gunman admitted to the police he is responsible for monday's shooting and that wasn't the only one he considered carrying out. after he escaped the shooting in highland park disguised as a woman to blend in with the crowd, police say he drove three hours north to madison, wisconsin. >> he did see a celebration that was occurring in madison. he seriously contemplated using the firearm he had in his vehicle to commit another shooting. there are indications he didn't put enough planning forward to commit another attack. reporter: police knew robert crimo iii well before monday's shooting. in september of 2019 police were called to his house after he threatened to kill his family. they took more than a dozen knives and a sword from the house at that time. just months later crimo iii applied for and received a state

i.d. to legally buy guns in illinois. he was sponsored by is father because he was under 21. he bought guns on four separate occasions according to state police and each time passed background checks. as for the grieving community, there were several vigils in highland park yesterday focusing on seven people killed in the massacre. among those killed, irene and kevin mccarthy, their little boy 2 years old, found by a stranger wandering the parade route alone amid the chaos after the shooting. that little boy was asking where his parents were, according to people that stepped in to help out. even more people stepped in to help out today. a gofundme was started to raise money for the two-year old boy who has no parents. more than two million dollars have been raised, neil. something positive to come out of this absolutely horrific tragedy. neil: thank you, grady trimble.

as grady touched on, there were some signs telegraphed two years ago early as 2019, several incidents, april, later on in the fall, we're learning right now robert crimo was acting not only suspiciously but violentedly. with us a psychiatrist, former director at la dcf. i believe that stands for department of children and family services. correct me if i'm wrong. doctor, what do you make of what you're learning about the alleged shooter here? >> what i'm making is that some of this stuff is right in front of our face and some of these parents are not doing what they need to be doing. why would a father sign a child permit to get a gun when he just threatened to kill his family, whether it was a year ago or a week ago? what i'm learning there are social media cues we should be checking in background checks as well. we do have clues. we may not have exact things, but we have clues to target people to watch them. neil: what is, commonalty i

often see, doctor, is, not consistently, but a lot, a a lor kept to himself, ostracized. spent a lot of time on social media. violent, worrisome, horrific image. >> yes. neil: it does follow a pattern. >> it does follow a pattern, you're absolutely right. and those things don't happen overnight. if you are really parenting your child or watching a family member or anybody, and you see signs of anything that doesn't look consistent or looks like it is changing, those are red flags to follow up on at least at the very least to follow up on. anything from sleeping and those changes happening with sleep. not showing up for school or work. not eating, interacting, any kind of signal you should take a look at, or bring it to someone's attention. neil: if someone all of a sudden starts getting very quiet, a

loner becomes more of a loner. we've seen it with the assailant behind parkland shooting and shooting since. what behaviors are you looking for? >> with pulling back from life they're going in a dark place. that is a red flag. i look at five key areas of someone's life, sleeping, amount of sleep they get, do they fall asleep, do they stay asleep? work or school work are they decompensating in those other areas. are they eating properly. dealing with emotions, you see someone described isolating. are they fun, have any hobbies, are they living. five key areas you look at, quickly identified things that need to be at least checked into. neil: very wise words all, thank you very much, dr. charles sophie following tragic developments. a trend that is not society's friend. we'll have more after this. >> thank you

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prices go higher and companies saying they will pass along the increases to our suppliers and that could extend customers. lauren simonetti following these developed as she expertly does day in and day out. you have to pass along. lauren: even big companies like walmart are no longer swallowing these prices. and some of the supplier fees, and it stores, it starts next month. they are complaining because they don't know what the surcharges are. could be a percentage of the cost of the goods. walmart shares should be higher for the third day in a row because this is a way to counter inflation, the fuel costs run $160 million higher than they anticipated. moving in the opposite

direction, broader, oddity selloff on recession fears. prices at 20 month lows, shares of freeport mcnamara, the largest copper producer in the world cut in half since march and in the next hour investors will get clues from the federal reserve, how strong is the economy to handle inflation, the 75 basis point move, we want to point out any insight into the minutes is out of date because the market and the angst in the market changed dramatically in the last two weeks. we are seeing and feeling that, for the second day the two and 10 year, 10 year bond yield long-term ones and that reports in session. the yield curve has inverted before every recession back to 1955. we will see if it happens.

neil: people go back and forth on that. wants to go to hillary vaughan. we are learning the administration is getting closer to lifting some or all of those tariffs on chinese goods. what can you tell us at this point? >> reporter: they are trying to use this as an inflation fix, the idea that moving import taxes on chinese goods would ultimately lower costs for some consumers but even some officials in the administration say that could shoot the us in the foot, heading into trade negotiations in china. catherine heise says capping tariffs on china would give us key leverage for them. former omb director under trump says there could be bigger consequences. >> i don't think this is something that in the long run will help the american people because it neither get the

handle of the price tackett -- trade practices but gives us geopolitical leverage with our adversary china making is less safe. >> reporter: the peterson institute for international economics estimates if every tariff were lifted on chinese imports that could bring down cti inflation by a fraction of a percentage point but all the tariffs on chinese imports were removed which is not what is on the table. the reports, a tiny tariff package, $10 billion, $370 billion in tariffs on chinese goods right now is being considered. some republicans think this is just another distraction tactic by president biden. >> another example of president biden blaming inflation on anyone but himself. we've had these tariffs in place three or four years and didn't have inflation and when it started. >> reporter: one of the consumer goods they are considering lifting tariffs on would-be bicycles so that may be good news if you are in the market for a bicycle, gases too high, if you are thinking of

biking to work but not good news for people thinking to cut down on everyday costs for things they buy every day like groceries. neil: keep us posted. with us is former assistant treasury secretary for financial institutions under donald trump, chris campbell, what he makes of this. china must be salivating at this prospect. while americans play those tariffs it puts a crimp on the sale of chinese goods. this could lift that stymied sale environment, obviously help american consumers and obviously help china. >> reporter: absolutely. as the biden administration is contemplating unilaterally lifting tariffs with no action, chinese parks, you are right, it could help american consumers but as the lead in

suggest it will not bring down inflation. democrats going into the next election, in a real challenge, they have inflation, the thing that is driving the november numbers right now. neil: how does it work? it get rid of these tariffs, some gold 20%, it is going to make things cheaper. we get a lot of stuff from china. i am wondering if the impact will be significant because we do, this will touch on a broad variety of technology items from laptops and other things because it doesn't cover everything. >> consumer goods will come down. there is talk about the biden advanced ration moving consumer good tariffs, that hit more companies and larger utility issues, large manufacturing,

looking at tariffs, with 0 covid policy, to manufacture these goods and services. host of challenges, and other issues related to china, there are significant challenges, the administration looks long and hard, it is a suit significant challenge to the united states, a growing challenger for the american economy. neil: chris campbell, the chief strategist, much more, the implications for this and you as they come to pass.

what do you think? >> reporter: doesn't look great but the next several weeks and months, the sooner we get the admission we are in a recession by the administration, the sooner we are at the end of this thing. we convince ourselves we are not in a recession then we are than we are not, the longer this drags on, the longer, you want to rip the band-aid on, rip the federal reserve to these debits more accustomed to be more dovish considering there is a massive interest rate hiking cycle but the reality is the fed will come around to seeing, softer than this in the past. neil: what if it is happening, higher rates and higher prices are coming down of their own accord because it may be at

higher rate than anything else but it is not leading to a soft landing but a pretty hard one, maybe a recession. >> prices coming down are a good thing. market reaction, consumers reacting to higher prices with less demand is good for the overall cycle of things but you don't want them to crash too hard because volatility of prices alone will trouble a lot of businesses selling the goods. the other problem with this kind of recession with respect to inflation component is job versus labor market type of situation, jobs are plentiful. we've seen adult numbers out recently, they are very good. labor market is very stressed, very odd as far as not applying to those jobs. i harken back to the advice kim kardashian gave earlier in the spring about getting up and working. she's kind of right. she is coming out here because people are not seeking those jobs. the would help the economy get on its feet and get consumers

back to work and increase wages and combat inflationary pressures we have going on right now. neil: i have been arguing may be incorrectly but i think i am right that this is nothing like the 70s experience yet and we've got into this a lot. it could be that but i don't see that right now. ica strong labor market but another reminder that 11.3 million jobs are open versus 6 million unemployed in the us so a lot of jobs go big lose that is a strong environment that would take a lot to chip away. it could still happen. i'm wondering the economy and the market saving grace. >> agree. those two measurements need to narrow because jobs with big companies that had plentiful jobs out there, started to cut those offering so perhaps the consumer, the job seeker finally finds the job they are

looking for but your point about the 70s we are seeing a similar shock, some other feel how rising prices, rising interest rates have impacted consumers probably because unlike the 70s we had a too good for a few years so the reality is rates are up, they won't staying this high, but higher than the last 10 years as our prices because we are in a massive deflationary environment where the stock market was going up. the fed was accommodative and things were affordable. neil: are you bullish now or cautious? >> i am getting kind of cautious, leaning bullish every day because the faster the market falls and reacts to a lot of band-aid out there the closer we get to our bottom and some of the stocks after apple, google, microsoft are trading at massive discounts than they traded in the last couple decades, tantalizing for investors who work with us with

respect to want to to your high -- time horizon so that is faster after that period. neil: thank you very much. scott martin following those developments. the president will be heading to cleveland ohio, the union training center today and trying to remind his blue collar audience their pensions will be protected and shored up and many that were expected to go insolvent by 2026, aren't looking at that possibility until 2051. the reason i mention this in context about the 70s experience, a great many companies went out of business and their pensions frittered away. we established the retirement income security, better known as a risk as a government fall back to protect pensions. only pennies on the dollar. the president saved the day, 100% of the dollar for some. after this.

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neil: the president will address a union audience, say to union workers and blue collar workers, strong base for the democratic party, that he has their back, might prove easier said than done. he is commenting on how he will shore up work with managing workers to help shore up pension funds. some coming dangerously close to becoming insolvent. alexis mcadams has more from cleveland. >> reporter: the president is not in cleveland yet, but people across this area want to hear his plans about how he will turn this economy around. people are upset about the large spike in gas prices, paying more for everything in northeastern ohio, at this event he's going to be talking about pensions. the announcement, the comments will come today around 3:00. is in the air on the way to talk to union leaders at this

high school as the biden administration says 3 million american workers and retired workers facing big pension cuts highlighting a new program under his american rescue plan the president says could have major investment losses the will be cut. the monmouth poll comes as biden's approval rating has dropped again, and only 10% of americans say the country is headed in the right direction. president biden will talk about the rescue plan. 57% of americans in this poll says the government her their families with the current action. we stopped at a local diner and talked to people, and gas setting record prices. the owner of the diners trying to not read menu prices but for

several weeks he has barely made a profit. >> the customers don't understand. one thing is to spend -- >> reporter: everyone i spoke with talked about the price of gas. in cleveland, $5 a gallon, people forced to make cuts and tough decisions to get enough money to have enough to fill up to get to work, inside, president biden will make those are marks after 3:00 and talk one on one with those union workers, he's familiar with ohio and been here half a dozen times since he has been president because it is a key battleground state, people are closely listening to what he has to say about the economy and pensions.

neil: keeping your cool through the music, nice job, alexis mcadams, the president no doubt going to refer to inflationary pressures still out there. other forces and players, the latest pivot, the transportation secretary pet buttigieg, gas station owners. >> do you think the owners of gas stations in this country are deliberately gouging americans? >> the one group of people we see who are happy about what is happening with gas prices are oil company executives and owners. we have seen them out there saying they are not going to increase production is why would they? the president has proposed a use it or lose it policy, sitting on these permits and leases and not producing. neil: are you blaming them?

an extension of that, where is he getting oil companies behind these gas stations, they own fewer than 4% of the gas stations in this country so there must be another culprit. kind enough to join us, this idea that greedy gas station owners are following greedy gas companies and giants on the gouging americans? >> i fully expect that both secretary buttigieg and president biden should know better and understand how the marketplace works, and they truly should know that gas station owners are not the cause of the prices you are seeing at the pump today. it is very simple.

gas station owners, the quintessential small business of america, these are entrepreneurs, small businessmen, product costs rises, no choice to increase the price they charge for it so i was thinking about this yesterday, president biden is probably looking for some people to blame and deflect. people are angry about these prices but it is wrong to blame gas station owners, very wrong. and i thought the best way to find out and demonstrate would be to ask him a direct question. if you are the owner of a gas station and the gas truck shows up today to deliver more product to your gas station and the cost of that gas is up by

$0.20 a gallon, what should you do with the price that is on your pump? should you leave it the same and eat that increase and give up any profits? should you lower it because gas prices are so high we don't want to anger people more? or should you pass that on and increase the cost at the pump so you can continue to pay the mortgage, taxes, the utilities, your employees and even your own paycheck so you can bring it home and pay your own mortgage and the expenses you have at home? this is the direction the president needs to think -- neil: i try to give the benefit of the doubt to the it ministration, they know it is a foolish argument, you can't be totally ignorant of supply and demand.

i didn't see any violent blame for the energy industry when it wasn't making any money during covid, i didn't see any description in terms of percentage of revenues, oil companies, they do better, entertainment companies do far better as percentage of sale. leaving that aside i think it is easy to throw it out there, that they are evil culprits but last time i went to my local gas station i wouldn't categorize the guy who owned it as a billionaire. he makes more money off of the bakery products i pickup from his attached quick pick or fast food joint that is right next to him than he does offer gas i am putting into my car but i don't think in this environment people are stopping to listen to the facts. >> i can understand the motoring public being confused. i don't, except the leadership

of this country is confused. you are one hundred% correct. if you purchase $10 gasoline at a gas station, that is $45 in a sale and that gas station owner, that proprietor will make $2 or $3. if you get out of your car and go into the convenience store and you purchase a $3 cup of coffee, that proprietor is going to make $2.50 on that cup of coffee. let me ask, which would you prefer the customer purchase? the gas or the coffee? however, if you don't sell them the gas they are not going to be there to purchase the cup of coffee. bleach with charles: that is better explained than i could ever do so don't take my job from me. you did an excellent job. i appreciate that. very good seeing you. >> not looking to take your job but i do have to defend my

members that are being unfairly accused. neil: when we are painting with the same elite grape upon brush i don't know if it is doing anyone any good. i want to bring this to a lot of people because this comes up a lot. we don't have time on this conservative or liberal view on this. i'm not an opinion host, no one cares what my opinions are, nor should you. i look at the facts and the facts of the matter are, let's say gas station owners are making money hand over fist, let them cash out now and sit on piles of money, very few are doing so. often times they are still the same guys who are filling up their car. if that is a billionaire cornering the market, certainly have a funny way of showing it. stay with us.

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>> facing a criminal investigation. he needs to resign.

>> what a prophetic spectacle. the dying act of his political career is to parent that nonsense and ask for those who are left only in office because no one else is prepared to debase themselves any longer. >> the difference between this government and that opposition is we have a plan. and they do not. neil: those were two members of the same party, the tories, where there is growing protest for boris johnson to stay in power. she has lost a number of top managers including the equivalent to our treasury secretary, health treasury secretary, if you include the equivalent of their sub cabinet, they are fleeing like locusts. the former foreign policy advisor under margaret thatcher, so glad to have you. she had to endure the same in party revolt as well. this one seems to have real

traction now. what happened? >> thank you, back from london, this is an extremely precarious moment for boris johnson's future, and his position, significantly weakened over that, the resignation of two key ministers, we have seen 30 resignations, ministers on the government payroll, the prime minister, looks like a gravely difficult situation. having said that boris johnson is an extraordinary fighter, he has 9 lives, he still is in the

fight, i wouldn't underestimate boris johnson's ability to survive even this. what you have seen, a huge parliamentary rebellion in the conservative party which the, the departure of two very senior cabinet ministers and rumors of other cabinet ministers who may be about to redesign, the next 24 to 48 hours, we are looking at a potentially major coup in the conservative party, over the past two decades in the conservative party. it ends up very well. neil: you might survive the moment, you might fight and lose another day, to avoid a no-confidence vote among

members of his own party, now mushroomed into a very different set of events. you can explain this process, a lot of americans, who is the backup choice? if he leaves, who do tories have to turn to? >> if boris johnson is forced to resign which is a possibility, this will spark a leadership contest for the conservative party, whoever wins that contest which could take several weeks or several rounds of voting, whoever wins that contest automatically becomes the prime minister of the united kingdom. the stakes are high. they are ten leading candidates right now, some on the right, some on the left, some in the center of the party. the front runners are the foreign secretary, the new

chancellor of the exchequer and former education secretary, the former secretary, in addition to that, the defense secretary, arrange of other ministers as well. those are the candidates, the health secretary and former chancellor. neil: if johnson refuses to quit or step down. how what do they do? >> it is in the the committee oversees the voting practice with regard in a sitting prime minister, the 1922 committee ruled they will not change the rules to another vote of

no-confidence, to win that vote. neil: anything for at least a year. with the 1922 committee on monday, we have to see what happened, monday is a crucial day on that front, the 1922 committee that will decide whether as another vote of no-confidence if there is another vote i would expect the situation with the prime minister to be extremely grave. neil: you've been very patient with this, when the party or the tories if it comes to that look for a new leader, he is still, until it is all settled, how do they handle that? >> until we have a new prime

minister in place, could take several weeks, 2 or 3 months. the new leader of the conservative party is picked. neil: you are an encyclopedia. the former foreign policy advisor under margaret thatcher, one of the most popular leaders going back to winston churchill can be turned on not only by their own party but general electorate. it is a bloodied mass, more after this. if you used shipgo this whole thing wouldn't be a thing. yeah, dad! i don't want to deal with this. oh, you brought your luggage to the airport. that's adorable.

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they're miles away, or ai that knows what your body will do before you do. cool. introducing elevance health. where health can go. say goodbye to daily insulin injections. intomnipod is a tubeless,th. waterproof pod built to simplify life with diabetes. try it today. go to omnipod.com for risk information, instruction for use, and free trial terms and conditions. consult your healthcare provider before starting on omnipod. neil: little-known fact about china, their space program 10 years ago was virtually nonexistent, it now dwarfs all other spacefaring countries including the united states, russia, iran, ireland, italy, france, england combined, no wonder nasa issued a statement today saying we are alarmed

over the china space race and what is going on. jennifer griffin has more from the pentagon. >> p. not realize the chinese and russians have teamed up to build a research base on the moon by 2035. another example of this burgeoning friendship that has us national security officials concerned. it made a longer be 4 july but there were real fireworks this week from beijing after nasa administrator bill nelson sounded the alarm during an interview with the german news outlet warning of a new space race with china, quote, we must be very concerned china is landing on the moon and saying it is ours now and you stay out. nelson is quoted in the article, china is good but also good because they steal ideas and technology from others. he added china's space station is a platform for learning how to destroy other peoples

satellites and wants to occupy the moon. china's foreign ministry spokesperson accused nelson, a former astronaut and current as administrator, of smearing china, quote, this is not the first time the united states's nasa has disregarded the facts, talked as they pleased and smeared china. some us officials continue to make up facts and slander china abnormal and reasonable foreign affairs. china firmly opposes such irresponsible remarks. china is expected to launch its next generation of heavy-duty rockets into thousand 28 powerful enough to send a crude spacecraft to the moon, the main space contractor said nelson double down on his warning in a statement provided to fox news, the chinese space exploration program is run by their military. this is different from nasa which has always had a peaceful and open civilian space program with international participation. meanwhile, general david

thompson for the pentagon space force said the us is watching china's advance on this new frontier closely. >> they are building and updating their space capabilities at twice the rate we are. >> reporter: the us was the first a lantern astronaut on the moon in 1969, but china's focus on the moon ramped up with an unaccrued moon landing in 2013 and plans to send astronauts there in the next five years. we 20 they have a history in the south china sea of taking over, militarizing all these islands so there is some scary prospect. >> absolutely. neil: thank you, scary stuff. jennifer griffin, the pentagon, on all of that. a lot more coming including the latest concerns at the border that go beyond the sheer number of migrants, but wave after wave of criminals, stay with us.

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this is xfinity rewards. our way of showing our appreciation. with rewards of all shapes and sizes. [ cheers ] are we actually going? yes!! and once in a lifetime moments. two tickets to nascar! yes! find rewards like these and so many more in the xfinity app. neil: not only migrants coming to the board but dangerous stuff including two men just released in california after smuggling 15,000 fentanyl built into california.

>> reporter: bottom line, police arrest two smugglers with enough fentanyl to kill a small town. the courts let them go and they want them back, this new warrant that was just issued is the complete reversal. the question is how did we get here in the first place, 10 days ago deputies arrested was a and bonito for trafficking one million dollars in drugs. four pounds cocaine, 150,000 fentanyl drugs, an hour after booking both are released with 0 conditions, no bracelet, no check-in, different judge, same county issues a new warrant the preemptively set bail at $2 million each so it doesn't happen again. the da blames probation for letting a computer program determine the pair were low risk and should be released, no mention of the crime, the

drugs, the value, the flight risk and that they face 14 years in prison. probation blames the court saying only judges release inmates, not them. the court blames the da for failing to file charges or a detainer keeping them in jail. >> across the state, no pretrial risk assessment should be considered by out judge without a factual basis to some degree, call it a recommendation, start pointing the finger at who is at fault and solve a problem going forward. >> police got two guys working for a cartel transporting a lot of drugs and if the sheriff expects to get either one. neil: incredible, thank you very much.

do not say tom homan did not warn you about this, the former acting ice director joining us now. it has been a while. what do you make of this, another reminder it is not only the migrants we should be worried about but the stuff they are bringing here. >> the public safety crisis and public health crisis are probably more important than the illegal immigration crisis because well over 100,000 americans died from overdoses, the deas on record that 90% of fentanyl -- why is that? the immigration crisis up to 70% are no longer on the line, you're in the processing or transporting to the hospital or airports and bus stations, 70% of manpower not on the line and that is where the drugs cross

and the national security crisis, put on record 50 people at the database. as of today, $875,000, traffic cameras, drones and center traffic, how many of those on the database? that should concern every american, this is turned into a public safety crisis or national security crisis. stuart: you predict a while back the complexion of those coming into the country, most americans are mexican or coming south of the mexican border, better than a hundred countries are represented in some of the latest waves. mexico just let that go?

>> the one hundred 60 one countries, mexico needs to step up. under the trump administration, enforcing migration laws, in the country of mexico to trafficking, also to stop issuing these transit pieces. it is illegal to go through mexico, to transit mexico without what they call a transit visa and mexico, the policy, mexico is not assisting at the level it could be assisting. neil: when the mexican government or mexican president says we promised work incentives and others to those coming here to mexico to stay in mexico, obviously those making their way north said that is fine but we can do much better in the united states. >> absolutely, the president of mexico, these people are coming to the united states. the sad thing, i see a lot of

news reports saying remaining mexico stops people claiming asylum, no it didn't. just had them wait in mexico until they had their hearing but the immigration court data clearly says the last decade nearly 9/10 central americans who claim asylum at the border never got relieved from us courts, either didn't show up or didn't qualify. 9/10. they may be seeking asylum but do they qualify for asylum? 90% do not. neil: to put a fine point on this, those who are now not allowed to remain in mexico but here, their cases are adjudicated here, there is such a demand for these court filings that they can wait for years. to your point, we can't echo that enough, the fact that they will show up for that is grim when you look at a normal time

frame but you are many years out it is almost impossible. >> exactly right. here's the point that really matters. even 56% show up the homeland security report that you can see on the internet, the secretary's report looks -- clearly shows, 9/10 the lose their case, how many leave? if you are unaccompanied you leave 3% of the time. if you are a family group you leave 6% of the time, if you are a single adult, 22% are either left or planning to leave. bottom line, not about how many -- how many follow the court's order and gets removed, 90%, 36% leave, that shows these people are staying in the united states, go into hiding, the data clearly shows remain

in mexico makes sense. they had to wait for their hearing. if they lost they are removed because we got them but let them in, the secretary, this administration knows they have the same idea i gave you by releasing them and not retaining them the chances of leaving even to get removed are very low. neil: that is if we can follow them where they are. that is an impossible task. thank you very much, good seeing you again. the a former acting ice director saying it was a crisis when few people were. stay with us.

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neil: you ever watch or do you watch netflix's "stranger things." apparently become the second series on netflix to post more than a billion hours to watch in the very first month. could be the same guy watching it a billion times. that is a big deal. "squid game" was last one to do it. south korea thriller. there were sequels planned for "squid game" and "stranger things." charles: all it got was barclay's downgrade on netflix this morning. who knows what you have to do please wall street. neil: i don't get it. charles: thanks a lot, neil. good afternoon, everyone, i'm charles payne. this is making money. breaking now stocks are treading a little lower ahead of the fed release. we're looking for the nuggets powers that be have ignored or don't want to share and how