obsessively focused on race and gender and sexuality we need to teach them to read, write and do math they can learn about that other stuff later. >> is revolutionary to thank you very much indeed. tom bevan carrie chappelle that's it for this person this week but i'll be back next week at more in-depth interview is a wall street journal at large next week. thank you so much for joining >> barons around table. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ >> welcome to barron's roundtable but we got behind the headlines prepared for the week ahead. i'm jack ohta bread coming up strong economic data print markets relief this week but how long will last? deanna niles with insight. and later, hot off the presses barons out with its list of top u.s. ceos realty who made the

cut and how they a big change their companies. we begin as i was the three things investors should be thinking about right now. stocks showing signs of life thanks to data point to soft landing forgetting big market moving events next week, or to be go from here? after a decade of weak performance, stock pickers are apparently beating the indexes but even kathy wood had a great week. should your portfolio include active managers? do they stand a chance against the god of thunder? moviegoers are flocking to the theaters. why aren't movie stocks my colleagues ben levisohn, jack hough. we know earnings are coming down. yet stocks were up this week. what can engineer a soft landing. big number this week with the jobs are portrayed as a great number print much stronger than expected over 20000 jobs or if

you look at the details you sell the wages were not terribly hot. they're actually going out. not as much as inflation. solid wage growth lacking inflation means may be can actually engineer the soft landing. without having to block the economy. >> avoiding the wage spiraling at the center not buying it. >> not really proud there's a lot of wishful thinking right now. if only because those two things you mention the fed is raising rates and earnings are decelerating pretty put those two together that's not a great combination for this not been very good for the market. jack: richard bernstein has simple box with each of those things where the wrong box. so what are you looking for next week to maybe tame this excitement? works earnings are going to get a lot of attention pretty specially for the banks. really watching ctia comes out on wednesday. if we get a hot number it could really be the thing that says hey wait a minute this has gone too far for a no commodities have pulled back sub but we still things that like rent to their former sticky and that could be a problem. jack: that she was yet to drop.

so carlton we mention even kathy would had a good week. think her fund was up 16% on the week. she's not alone stock pickers in general are having a very good year. actually not having a good year. but stock pickers as opposed to the index is after 13 years of index outperforming pizza what is going on behind this question should be think about active management? >> is a type of market situation active should outperform. in many cases it has. more than half of the active funds. >> much better than usual. especially look over the last ten or 13 years. in a rising market what you're looking at active funds is notice trends are happening before the passive funds catch up to it. the shift from say stay at home trade to kind of the return to work, that's the active funds could take care. also active funds could hone in on what companies are going to do better in a rising rate

environment. whereas which are going to be lacking. spangle stocks did so well for so long. if you are on an index you own a lot of zoom in the active guys can sell that. one interesting dynamic here is it is much easier for an active manager to beat the index when he or she is charging a low fee. the ad the fee onto their gains to be the index rate. >> yes that's part of it. with active management you're obviously paying for that activity for your seeing fees 75 basis points to 1%. on the active funds are charging reasonable peace. also you have to look for long-term performance. wall street is littered with one hit wonders for their tons of these guys must a pile in to their father they never it. when you are looking and relative to the benchmark and their peers they have track record of outperforming peers.

our colleague took a look at a few some of the highlighted for all cap opportunity fund. the large group. spend less to the movies. so jack, minions, top gun killing it at the box office. not so much with investors however. >> stocks have not come around. $3.7 billion in first half of box office receipts for that's more than triple last year. and the u.s. to beat china on box office for the first time in years but definitely good signs. we talked earlier this year about paramount. it's been a basically everyone in china's locked in their house. >> early we talked about paramount testing different movies with different audiences, screen with the young men among the first to go back to theaters. and then the lost city for couples, sonic for families with the fort never went release of a spring that big gun let's bring out the top gun movie they're putting off as a monster hit.

you mentioned minions the rise of guru. it was the biggest fourth of july weekend ever. there's records being sent. there is some gratuitous minion new mostly buttocks don't worry too much. it's about a new female for movie it is called love and thunderbird i'm guessing that is the nickname of natalie portman's and buy fits by health it fit she seems to have gotten for this movie the early box often signs are good. movies are not everything for companies like disney impairment they make lot much from theater tv but they do revenue for the streaming content is a good sign. despite all it brought up their big guns but was let this year to attract people to theater? >> i am watching avatar for there is a sequel to avatar. it will not come out until mid december. are you feeling passionate about avatar? it cannot remember one name from the original movie. i can't tell people going to ship this movie.

disney has a multi- sequel deal with james cameron pretty seems risky to me but i asked bob about that want to be said avatar was the biggest worldwide box office hit of all time. there is that. he does make a good point there. >> you to why? every character is a baron's blue that's a secret to avatar because he should've gotten paid on that. >> match the fed that's great. jack: big tech rebound how soon it will last. fund that danette niles on where things go from here dad, when is the future?

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satori fund finder dan niles joins me now. thanks for coming on the show. congrats on a good first half. the market got clobbered but you were up on a growth basis at least, well done. >> thanks jack appreciate it. jack: you highlight two factors is going to put pressure on the economy and the mark of the coming years paid the federal reserve hiking rates, company earnings falling. tell us about that. >> sure, my view is really simple. like you said don't fight the fed. historically that's been used in a positive way with the fed stimulated the economy you want to go with it. it also works in reverse with the fed is at the beginning of a tightening cycle. they've only tightened three times. got a lot more they have to do. you are probably going to get another 50 -- 75 basis points at the next meeting. my guess is closer 75. inflation data coming out next week. it will probably still be pretty hyper that's going to drive multiples down. the second part, as you mention,

is earnings. the going to start the earnings season and you have a lot of really big things going wrong. the dollar is up six -- 7%. had commodity supply chain issues pressuring margins. and you have got inventory stacking up. give very big companies already negatively preannounced three -- six weeks of giving guidance including names like microsoft, target, restoration hardware. it's going to be in earnings season coming up. samantha ugly is the key word here. just how ugly does a gap for the markets? what is your prediction for the s&p finally bottoms? >> so, we started the year think it's going to be down at least 20%. inmate we change that the thinking it was going to be down 30 -- 50%. because you've got to think that it happen. why do you have had a multiples come down and. they have not come down is much as they need to giving inflation

is. if you want to be incredibly optimistic say pete cpi's going to a dell from 8% down to 3%, with cpi about 3% that market multiple for the s&p is still 15 times. today is it is at 19 and a half. in addition to that you've got a earnings. those are probably going to have to come down ten -- 20% before this downturn is over. and that is just going to start. that is going to continue for several more quarters. that is how ugly i think i can get. jack: that is ugly math. so how should an investor position his or her portfolio given all of this? >> i think it depends on what you're able to do. if you can watch it daily and get short and you don't mind treating around, you can try to use that to make money. but i think most investors sitting in cash in sync look i'm going to deal with losing six to 7% to inflation and then i will

buy in the depths of the recession when the fed is finished tightening and then put my money to work. i think that makes the most sense for the average investor unless you can get aggressive short stocks in trade around positions. spent let's talk about a few ideas you have right now. places to hide out during tough times. one of them seems like a scary neighborhood to me, chinese internet stocks. what is the case there? >> well, there's a couple of things but if you look at the u.s. names in technology you have got problems they are dealing with, which are economically based. it is cost going up in that dollar going up. and demand falling off et cetera. if you look at try to what you have there a lot of their issues are self-inflicted. if you remember it started blocking the financial ipo for ali baba way back in 2020. that continued with heavy regulation.

in addition to that you had the chinese locking down cities. know what they are doing is backing off of some of that regulation. mostly done. starting to reopen some of the cities where they change the travel bag from 14 date or quarantine from 14 days, to seven days. they've actually pulled an infrastructure spending for next church of this year. so the chinese are stimulant their economy while the u.s. trying to kill off inflation and tighten it. and so those are two very different scenarios. a good way to participate in that. if you look at this last month, the kate webb was up 12% where the s&p and nasdaq were down eight -- 9% during the month. it has hung in the well. part of that is it has gone down for it is gone from peak to trough at one point where it had to work through all these earnings issues and multiple compression and all of the stuff that we still think is a progress in the usa. jack: thanks for your insights as always a day on.

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>> burns out that the list of top ceo have led their companies to success for the cover story this week written by our own jack hough with a cameo by carleton english project starting with you. tell us how you go about choosing the ceos. >> we start with screening. we move it quickly to a panel of editors and beat reporters who basically they nominate ceos. they have initial debate they have further research. they come close to a compromise and we argue a lot. jack: arm wrestling pray.

>> arm wrestling at the end and finally we agree. the purpose of the project to say these are stocks you should by now. it's not to say these are the most admired companies in this moment. these are the ceos whose recent actions have made their companies stronger and more competitive. >> as she went through the list once it was chosen, did any themes emerge where there are hallmarks of what a great ceos doing right now? >> i expected to see inflation over and over as a theme. and we did. i was surprised how much artificial intelligence came up for non- tech companies brought give some examples, john deere's ceo talked about his sprayers using ai to spot weeds and tell them from crops give them a little sprint so instead of spring the whole field you basically save 90% on your herbicide by using ai priest coming out the thomas tractors later this year. they're going to have battery powered ones. you could have fully automated court in soybean production with a lot of subscription revenue

for dear by the end of the decade. so editors, they are using the latest monoclonal antibiotic technology for people to make medicines for its sheepdogs and achy cats. they also have ai blood scanning for pets. there using it there for pets and proving it can work for humans at some point down the road. so lots of ai. >> i am just curious. talk about john deere it's called the tesla farming but the ceo of tesla itself is not on the list. spoiler alert. and that ceo is what's going on here? >> he has been in the past. but jim farley at ford is basically blown past gm i think for what matters when it comes to electric vehicles which is putting these iconic vehicles and customer driveways now. they had early plans at ford what jim describes as a previous, of bolts or a light car and he said i don't like it

and they scrapped it and what with the cars that they know people like to buy that at the f150 lightning crossover at mustang they have electric transport they've all exceeded expectations. musk says it's a wonderful company, impressive guy no extra points for tweeting. [laughter] but karo i do and to ask you a question for i know you focus a lot on banks you participate. two companies in america and j.p. morgan. two respected ceos in the past. one is on the list this year, who and why? >> it's bank of america brian. intima check to the executive the term you will hear over and over is responsible growth. no response. i think it's the market excited that slow, steady, sustainable growth. but when you start to hit a downturn you start to realize that caution pays off and let

stay tuned dividends later on. that is why brian got the nod this year. in the case of j.p. morgan still a very fine institution. has some issues earlier in their talk about rising expenses. investing more in technology that is becoming a little bit more of a show me story now. >> another comparison. fed x has become a verb that is how much we fuse that company. and yet ups it turns out is taking share in that list. >> the first outside higher in the century plus history of ups. you are right at this company as an outsider during the pandemic for the say you've got to win over a half million workers and by the way here is a zoom screen to do it because there's a pandemic going on. she had to turn around years of losses. market share losses with small and midsize businesses. she has done just that market share is up and morale is up. >> we talked about movies earlier. it's not disney, it's not netflix he made the list it's paramount spirit i always

thought there kind of an afterthought. [laughter] they are bigger in streaming than you think nobody talks about pluto tv. take basically you repurpose content you arty have tommy sell advertising against it. in addition to leading the box office during the first half the growing faster than disney and netflix when it comes to streaming revenue. they were early with this advertising base model think it should be cheaper to your both disney and netflix have said they're going in that direction. now i don't doubt disney can do it. netflix might find it's harder than you think to build an advertising department from scratch. >> a lot more interesting names on the list. you're going to have to read baron's a pick that up because we are out of time. thank you guys. coming up then and carleton will tells about stocks they are eyeing. and jack looks mama >> tech: when you have auto glass damage, trust safelite. this dad and daughter were driving when they got a crack in their windshield. [smash] >> dad: it's okay. pull over. >> tech: he wouldn't take his car just anywhere... ♪ pop rock music ♪ >> tech: ...so he brought it to safelite.

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jack: i suspect you have noticed the price at the pump has gone up a bit in the last year so. so jack, i'm hoping you're going to tell me now i can fill up my car was soybean oil. >> we do not talk enough on this show about being squeezing. i think i've said a thousand times before. when you squeeze soybean to get soybean meal which is used to feed animals you get soybean oil which is used in people food. but you can use it to make biodiesel. now these soybean prices are down a lot. that has brought down shares of a mean squeezer called bungay. don't you dare pronounce at bungee i know you're thinking of doing that. so in addition to soybean oil you can use animal fat by the way to make biodiesel. now demand is about to soar for soybean oil there's a lot of new bio diesel capacity coming online per j.p. morgan said there's more than 20% upside

from here for funky shares for there's a company called darling international. we don't about fat rendering on this show. you make up bio feedstock which is a parlay of darling international does. >> is this going to ring down enough to bring down the cost of diesel? laugh nope it is going to take a while. spinning with that, carleton the nation of the south's experience a third heatwave of the summer. your stock may benefit. >> obie wesco air-conditioning distributor it was a pictures or doubt about 20% this year. it yielded 3.6%. little bit of concern on how the slowdown for they also get most of the revenue from repairs. >> then you've got a company that may benefit in tough times. >> yes is the very quality company is dropped 20% is not cheap it's 24 times it's a lot cheaper than it was at the start of the year. right on the stock looks like

it's trying to basis forming a bottom there and if they can keep this going it might be good time to buy. >> and ben, thank you project wonderful as always. to read more check out the source edition of barron's.com. to the rest of the ceos we don't forget to follow us on twitter that is at barron's online for that is all for us. we'll see it next week on we'll see it next week on barron's roundtable. dr. michael youssef: hello, my friends. today you're going to have a special treat and a special message from my son, jonathan michael youssef. he's going to talk about living in the world of uncertainty while we have confidence and certainty in the lord. you don't want to miss this message, and you really want to download it even after you hear it because it's going to continue to bless you throughout the week. god bless.