new york, forgot new york, pennsylvania, ohio, michigan, minnesota, north dakota, montana, idaho, washington and alaska. >> wait a second i i ohio bordes with canada. said no, no. of course i was right. stuart: just when you're right the time is up. thanks for being with us today. neil, it is yours. neil: stuart, thank you very much for that, good to know. cocktail party conversation fodder there. corner of wall and broad we're off the worst levels of the day. drip, drip of selling continues. wholesale inflation report looks even worse than the retail inflation report. middle of this before i get to some of the particulars, fed governor chris waller is on the wires right now saying among other things, if we don't get inflation under control, it will cause all sorts of damage. you think? we didn't handle things right at the fed from risk management point of view.

another prominent figure saying we missed the whole transitory thing statement. farm transitory inflationary tiff. pretty much everyone but the president acknowledged they governorred. there is nothing wrong with saying we goofed an moving on. wholesale prices 11.3% year-over-year. core, running 8.2% clip. you know the drill. we get drilled. we're brac to the levels we saw ronald reagan presidency was picking up steam. back then for example, to put it in being ways i can understand, why i don't think there is an appreciation what we're going through when people hear nine, 10, 11% aggregate inflation, it is bad enough. it is actually worse than that some of the things that you and i buy have gone up much more markedly going back to 1981. that is not fair, just to put the whole runaway inflationary

period, people were complaining then when hotdogs got up to $1.78 a pound. today they're $5.22 a pound. eggs, i can remember with my mom, 60 cents a dozen. they're $2.71 a dozen 40 years later. coffee, $2.46 a pound then. neil: closer to six bucks. closer to $5.80. put in perspective, five to 10% advances. this is the stuff most folks know. what are they buying i'm not. butter up 21%. mens suits are up 24.9%. kind of interesting there, butter and men's suits are following the same pattern. air foreis air for up 34%. health insurance up 17%. hotels, i could add gasolines, gone up 60%, heating oil gone up

45%. you get the point, when people bemoan the higher prices they're not looking at it from an average, aggregate or simple amount, they're looking what they see when they go to fill up their tank, that is obvious. when they go to the store, the department store, they try to pick up, let's say you go to a store that has men's suits at the same time eggs, bottom line no matter where you go you can't hide from this. dan geltrude with us, larry glazer with us. good to have you both of you. dan, this is non-stop, there is every indication now it will continue for a while. i have already seen those who were betting on the federal reserve maybe starting to cut rates the second half of next year, have put it off to well into the following year, 2024. where are we on this? >> well, here's the problem, neil. there is a number of problems. first of all we seem to be fixated what the federal reserve

is going to do. as if that is the only thing available to us. it's one of a number of things. okay, raising the interest rates, we already know and we talked about it endlessly. what is that going to mean. if interest rate goss up enough, we throw ourselves into you know, a pretty deep recession as a result that is not such great news, is it? of course not. why don't we go really where the problem is. the problem is out supply side here. i truly believe if we address energy issues, if we changed policy, we could really take a big bite out of this inflation rise without having all the damage that rising interest rates are going to cause in the rest of the economy. neil: you know what is interesting too, guys, oil is getting back close to the level it was at before russia invaded ukraine. i think we're at 92 bucks a

barrel. at that point we're down to 94 as we speak, way over, beyond oil, energy, gas, all of that. that might be returning to putin levels if you will but nothing else is. what do you make of that, larry? >> let's not beat around the bush, even though this is july or in the heat of summer this economy is in for some tough sledding, neil. we're seeing that play out in the weakness seeing commodity prices. currency challenges, we're seeing in the weak euro. seeing inverted yield curve. we're seeing weaker long-term interest rates, suggesting inflation is not a long-term problem. all send a signal that things are slowing. it's a red alarm we're heading towards recession. today's hotel inflation data, bank earnings confirmed what many of us were worried about. there is positive, bad news we're worried about. jamie dimon didn't sugarcoated

it. he said what we need to hear. cutting buybacks, loan reserves. it's a difficult environment. we need not to candy coat it either, level with people. washington needs to do the same thing. they need to explain to people how difficult it is. they need to take the difficult action. the good news, this week we realized jay powell is not paul volcker. has gravitas of political world to raise rates to rip the bandaid out he wouldn't have the guts to do. high inflation will allow him to do. hopefully we get to the other side of this within six to 12 months. neil: dan, i had a flip side looking at the pathetic bank earnings and disappoint there, enconcluding jpmorgan and morgan stanley, they didn't make up for that on their banking investment banking revenues, in other words how much they make off of trading. you would think if people are selling that is in order too. you take it and you run with it. so there is a flip to that maybe not everyone is selling or they're holding pat here.

i wonder what you glean from that? >> well i would think that most investors should be holding pat here, obviously to sell low after buying high is not the right formula. so the proper approach here is to hold off and just wait and see you know, how long this storm is going to wait or how long we have to wait until this storm passes. you know, neil, i just want to bring up one other point here related to the other side of the impact of inflation. that's related to wages. for a while we were saying oh, well, there is inflation but these wages are going up. that has stopped now, neil. wages are nowhere near rising at the same pace of inflation. there was just a report out today i believe that showed that the average annual wages for americans have gone down $3400 since joe biden has been in office. neil: is that a real wage, that

a real wage factoring in inflation then? >> well, it is $3400 less in terms of their salary, not talking about the inflation impact. so it's a double-whammy. neil: i didn't know that. larry, real quickly, what he is is saying is, in the mass aggregate if people were looking at heady days, 5% wage gains, 6% wage gains, but you have inflation running at 10%, 11%, depending where you are, we mentioned some of these examples that show for most folks that inflation is running at a far faster, higher clip, they're screwed, that is the bottom line, right? >> i think the risk is you get into a sentiment spiral where people didn't realize how difficult the economy was because they were getting stimulus money from the government. it was masking some of these issues. there was a pew research study

came out. it showed most americans are acknowledging washington's policies are making the economy more challenging for them. so i think the message is getting to them. it will show up in retail spending if we don't instill confidence, demonstrate policies to address, washington unable to do that, unwilling to do that. this is the pivotal moment we need to see leadership to step forward. this is crisis for families. we need to take action. it will be challenging if we don't do so. neil: final word, thank you, guys, very, very much. meantime i raised a very issue with jared bernstein white house economic advisor, talked of the administration plan for more strategic investments. i raised the point with him repeatedly, isn't that what got us into trouble in the first place? nevertheless the administration is still pushing more targeted spending investing, no matter what you want to call it, it is money that we don't have for an economy and inflation right now that many would argue we don't

need. all that aside, they're still pushing for it. let's go to hillary vaughn where all of this stands on capitol hill. hillary? reporter: neil, democrats are chugging ahead in spite of the high inflation number to pass a chunk of president biden's "build back better" agenda. trillion dollar spending reduction package before the midterms. republicans say this will make inflation even worse. some democrats could say it could actually lower some costs for americans. >> the most important thing in the reconciliation bill is to bring drug prices down. your station way not want to cover how democrats are bringing drug prices down, republicans, are always, always doing bidding of drug industry. that is a fact. that is what we're aiming for in the rec sill is. reporter: democrats are getting skittish in the inflation number. joe manchin will not sign off on any new tax hikes or any new spending in the skinny

"build back better" if it will add to inflation. should there be a complete pause on any new government spending? >> basically everyone should be very cautious what we're doing, how we're approaching things now, looking at anything that could inflame the inflationary high numbers that we have. so i'm going to say, if you're going to err, err on the side of caution right now. that's all. people can't take much more. reporter: neil some democrats may need a brand refresh for this reconciliation bill. senator elizabeth warren saying they can call it the joe manchin deficit reduction act if that is what it will take to get it passed. she says she thinks reconciliation sounds like a bad romans novel. neil? neil: hardly a romance, hillary vaughn on capitol hill. this is causing trouble for the housing industry, that is probably mildly understating it to put it again mildly. the fact of the matter is that all the major homebuilders have been getting hit hard.

a lot of them have suspended building so-called spec homes, reducing the size of communities which they're building to guarranty buyers as costs go up and a lot of potential buyers start to bail. the read from jerry howard, the national association of homebuilders ceo. jerry, how bad is this? i guess bad enough for them to be looking for capitol hill for some help. >> we recently, neil, had over 600 of our members up on capitol hill. we had 200 meetings with different members of congress asking them to inter seed. as the previous guest said, the fed can only do so much. this has to be handled by policymakers on capitol hill and the administration. otherwise we'll be headed into a significant housing recession if not an overall recession. you know, jerry, we're get sporadic reports, but one that instruct me, foreclosures returned essentially to pre-pandemic levels. they're still extremely are,

foreclosures are quite low in extremely bad recessions but i notice in my state of new jersey for example, they're running at second highest rate in the country, about a quarter of a percent of all housing units are now in in for closure to put in some perspective. that is still higher than the worst level we got pre-pandemic. having said that, we're also seeing buyers canceling sales on a lot of prospective homes. i'm wondering, that combined, with a lot of people just rethinking buying a home, whether it's a new one or an existing one, where are we going with this? >> well, our economists have just revised their outlook for next year and we believe that single family starts next year will be down 13%, 13%. that means we will not cutting into the deficit we have already

in housing availability. in fact we'll be adding to it which will exacerbate the problem. we're looking at a very tough time unless the policymakers take the bull by the horns and take action. neil: you can't take action on rates, right, unless you sort of force rates. right now i know mortgages are starting to climb again. i think a 30-year fixed back up 5.1%. that is up from 5.30 last week at this time. and a trend that had gone down at 4.67, about double where we were a year ago. no matter which side you're looking at you're getting clobbered. >> we're getting clobbered everywhere we look from regulations to costs of materials, to the supply chain. now to the cost of capital, not only for the end-users but for the mortgage, our builders having trouble getting capital now to buy lots and entitle them for building. this is a serious problem.

i just wish congress would recognize the importance of housing. housing has led us into every recession since world war ii. if they don't do something quickly to address it, unfortunately we could be leading us that way. neil: i hope you're wrong, jerry, i hope you're wrong my friend. jerry howard, national association of homebuilders. he is the big cheese there. good news but consumers might be retreating buying homes but amazon finished up the best prime days ever. they sold, 8% more in sales a year-over-year, that is impressive but i look at number of items they were selling. 300 million items in the two-day period, versus 250 million last year. so the dollar figures is important. of course in revenuewise it was strong but it shows that you know, americans are still chasing bargains.

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>> they have a responsibility to understand their role in the global economy to make sure there is enough supply in the market to ease those prices so we don't see inflation continuing to rise. neil: all right. that is another administration official talking about the need, i guess, drill, baby drill as weird as that sounds here. another push for producer to do more, running at flat rate, 95, 96%. the industry come back many times we would love to give us more land which to drill. be that as it may, nick lor. soc3 solutions. that is like me giving dietary advice to people, don't go there, don't go there. open up more lands to drilling, that is what this is about, right? >> that is exactly what this is

about. first american energy producers are stepping up. we've seen oil production hit its peak towards the end of june. we're above 12 million barrels a day. the oil industry has all the incentive in the world to increase supply to take advantage of these higher prices, what we really need, what the administration needs to be responsible for is regulatory certainty to provide american energy producers to expand. we have not seen that in decisions to cancel energy infrastructure and decisions to really slow down production and investment on federal lands and waters. neil: i always wonder too where this goes? if you're not asking the industry to do its part and you made it very difficult to do its part, in fact going to saudi arabia to ask the saudis to do more their part the industry has to be betwixt and between here. i look to people who hate energy companies, if you take at lowest level, they love to make money.

it is fine, it's a capitalist society. they argue they can make a lot more money doing a lot more drilling because no matter how the economy slows demand for oil and energy dwarfs the available supply. if they get their hands on more potential supply they will make even more money, right? >> that is exactly right. they need that long-term certainty they will not be kneecapped by current regulations as well as future regulations, because these are huge, huge expenditures for industries and take multiple years of the plant out. that future supply will take time to come online. they need the ability to make those investments or it will not be profitable. if it will be unprofitable due to burdensome regulations and this is true for oil production and expanding refinerying capacity. i think it is also important to mention that it can be in

alliance with the administration climate agenda, if we don't produce here at home we'll offshore the production to countries with lax environmental standards and emissions will be even higher. a true energy and climate agenda should expand supplies here in the united states and make it easier to build everything from more oil and gas infrastructure but also renewable and nuclear. that is what americans want to see. that is what ultimately will drive down prices for families and businesses. neil: we're not there yet to your point though. nick loris c3 solutions with all of that. getting tired of crowds at the airports, missed a plane or plain outright canceled. the read from former transportation secretary under obama ray lahood. and views on his successor, the current transportation secretary

after this. ♪.

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♪. neil: the baby formula crisis eased somewhat because we're getting more pro abroad. it is not that easy and not anywhere near done. lydia hu from new york city on where we stand. lydia. reporter: neil, despite efforts to increase production domestically and import baby formula overseas we're still seeing shortages remain. the latest data from ini, all formula types are about 20% out of stock. if we look ad powdered formula specifically, that is mostly what is being imported we see around 28% are still out of stock. before this crisis, the out of stock rates would hover around five to 7% for some context there checking around to various

retailers in new york city area, partially stocked shelves, limit on purchases like target, customers can buy no more than four formula products at a time. cvs is acknowledging shortages and limiting customers to three products to a purchase. >> penalizing though with a big supply because they stocked up. you're also penalizing, typically the lower income mothers who didn't have the money to stock up. reporter: now the formula shortage was sparked by the shutdown of abbott's facility in sturgis, michigan, in february. it reopened for the second time on july 1st following severe weather and it has restarted production of formula for babies with allergy but shipping still not happening yet. that is expected to come within the next few weeks. meanwhile dozens operation formula flights have been completed. by sunday, enough formula for

55 million bottles will be imported. that is only slightly more than what american consumers need for just one week. neil, it seems like retailer have some supply of baby formula, one outlet has none is the food bank for new york city which supplies 800 food pantries across the big apple with food and formula. they say they have none and they don't know when they're getting more back in stock. neil? neil: that is a life and death supply chain issue. lydia, thank you very much. lydia hu following all of that. meanwhile getting a little easier flying these days. i don't want to overstate it here. you will still deal with crowds. deal now and then with people with a bit of a temer. you have to move around me at the airport and you'll be find. ray lahood joins me, the former secretary of transportation under barack obama. ray, thanks for joining us. >> good to see you, neil. neil: neil: same here. what do you make of the problems flyers are having?

the airlines agreed, almost every airline to curtail its schedule, to scatter flights. even united limit where they go, a number of small cities off united's map now, still problems. what do you make of it? >> well i think what the secretary is doing, secretary buttigieg is important. he has been meeting with the airline executives, trying to figure out what the solutions are. one of the things, neil, that i thought about, this idea that pilots have to retire at 65, i think it is well within the realm of possibility that d.o.t. and the faa could extend that in a temporary basis until enough other pilots are trained and hired on the airlines and, i really believe that is something they ought to think about. if the pilot shortage is a big part of the problem, then, they ought to trigger some kind of a

temporary fix for that and, but i think the airlines are working hard to try and fix the problem but it obviously is very frustrating for passengers. neil: yeah, the closer i get to that age myself, secretary, the more i'm open to increasing it but i did raise it with people, the transportation secretary. he did not seem too keen on it. this is from pete buttigieg. comes to pilots, i think the retirement age remains 65, should it? would you be for increasing that to increase the pool of available workers then who could fly these planes that often times they're begging to find pilots? >> well, i'm much more interested in raising the bar on things like compensation and job quality than lowering the bar on something like safety and when you get to these training hours, retirement age, those things, those are fundamentally safety

regulations. the united states of america should be able to have a robust aviation system without watering down our expectations on safety. neil: you know what struck me, secretary, his boss will be 80 years old. nothing wrong with that, heart surgeons, cardiologists surgeons, well into 70s doing their jobs. i wonder why the 65 limit for pilots, maybe 70. each one is their own age group, i get it, but that would do a lot to ease this pilot shortage we have, wouldn't it? >> you know, neil i think this, i think when we have gone through what we've gone through over the last two plus years and there's a pilot shortage, we need to find a temporary fix and i think it would be incumbent upon -- i get the safety aspect of it and i applaud the secretary for emphasizing safety

and i applaud the airlines for emphasizing safety but i think in this interim period here when there is a shortage of pilots it is well within the ability of d.o.t. and the faa to say, hey, maybe four 18 months we're going to waive this requirement, allow these pilots to fly that are 65 and older and, while we're hiring and training new pilots. and i think given what we've been through in the last 2 1/2 years it's legitimate to do that for the very thing that you said which is there are a lot of other professions that allow their professional people to continue to practice, whether it's medicine or whatever well beyond the age of 65. neil: i'm trying to do it in reverse secretary here at fox, getting rid of anyone who is under 60. this way it makes life much easier for me. stepping back, you've been

hearing all the press back and forth and troubles for president biden. you worked in the obama administration when he was the vice president. a lot of these democrats who are concerned whether he should be heading the ticket in 2024, how do you feel about all that? >> i think that what the president has done in the last year-and-a-half is quite extraordinary. he said he was going to take care of covid and he did it. he took care of covid. he said he was going to pass a multiyear transportation bill, something that president trump talked about but never did, even though he had the votes to do it. a trillion dollar transportation bill, thanks in large part to president biden and he was able to get 17 republicans in the senate -- neil: you're right about that. there is lot of things he has done getting lost in the sauce,

with the inflation and tumble in the markets. but poll numbers are record lows for a reason. i wonder if americans had it with him and frustrated, what do you think? >> won the last election and we won't know how popular he is until there is another election. i believe he will run for re-election. i think he should run for re-election. he should base it on his record of doing what he said he was going to do for the american people. i know inflation is out of control. i know the economy's abysmal but i think the things that they have put in place, not only with the fed chair and federal reserve but their own solutions eventually will work, neil and two years from now when we're looking at another election, we'll judge him on what he did for the past 3 1/2 years. that is how he ought to be judged. not on the first year-and-a-half but, not, he is trying to fix these things and i think what he

has done internationally is quite extraordinary but look it, i know the economy will be the issue and certainly going to be the issue in the midterm elections but, you know, let's give the guy a little break here. he has done a hell of a lot and accomplished a hell of a lot and he has done it with a very slim majority in the congress. neil: i didn't think you were going to trash the guy but i found it very interesting. i thought i would get you at a weak elder moment you would do that. but you didn't. ray lahood, thank you very much. good seeing you. >> neil, always good to be seeing you always. neil: former transportation secretary on the united states under barack obama. something to talk about people and their age, whether they're up to the job. there is middle ground here, adding two years to a pilot such an outlandish idea? i don't know. more after this. ♪

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consult your health care provider before starting on omnipod. simplify diabetes. simplify life. omnipod. ♪. neil: all right. greg norman out in scotland of course for the big british open, i guess origin, genesis of golf itself, essentially telling those who are critical of the liv golf series which is prominently paid member to ease up. said the saudi-backed liv league good for the sport and good for female players. didn't exactly take on tiger woods damning it but zinged him a couple times. let's get where this is going, doug eldridge, sports agent extraordinary, a walking encyclopedia on this subject. doug, good to have you back. do you any it is overkill trying to kill off liv.

this is free market? >> 100%, i said free market discussed it this a month 1/2. these guys are independent contractors this is not collectively bargaining like the nfl. they should have a ability to -- [inaudible]. to your point the pgs over correcting almost like the seven stages of grief, anger, depression, they're not quite at the bargaining stage yet. saw them initially dismiss it. didn't give it attention. then they got angry, punishing players. now they're trying to discredit the liv tournament as a whole, ceo, two-time open winner, greg norman. neil: are they acting like a bully? is that why we're hearing justice department might be look into this, that is the pga? >> i feel like a bully is a subjective term. objectively speaking there is

really a basis for potential antitrust claim. the doj purportedly have been contacting player agents to look at the underpinnings of anti-competitive behavior, not the least of which how they're adjusting player rankings. remember players make money two primary ways. number one, winnings based on larger tournament. you have to have a certain ranking to qualify unless you're a past winner and off the course earnings, sponsorship. pga burned the rope from both ends in terms it of manipulating player ranks and leaning on sponsors who have complex relationship with pga tour. nicholson lost entire portfolio of sponsors for a variety of reasons but liv is the -- [inaudible]. bridge tone at last week which was a lucrative long-term agreement. they specifically cited participation in in liv there is underpinning for basis of anti-competitive investigation for sure. neil: there is the hypocrisy

element. i can understand being aghast at saudis, the killing of jamal khashoggi, i get all of that but it is not as if the pga isn't above linking up with countries that have nefarious human rights issues. china comes to mind. so it just, it just strikes me as really, get over the lecture? >> i agree with you. if we're calling balls and strikes let's keep the role of umpire. if you're a fan in the stands you can yell anything you want while drinking a cold beer and having a hot dog but i think too often commentators conflate two roles. objective balls and strikes sense, they're absolutely right. nba $500 million, close to billion dollar relationship with china. i heard, many of whom i respect greatly, jim gray talk on the program and others this is sports washing. every corporation tries to align with athletes because they're

seen as role models in the most holistic sense, accomplishment as well as lifestyle required to achieve it that is absolute endorsement. call a ball on china and strike on saudi arabia seems objecttive and entirely out of the strike sown. neil: i wish the encyclopedia you are that pga is hitting the rough, got into it its own sand trap. i can't give you this stuff, thank you very much, my friend, doug eldridge, the sports agent extraordinaire. what is the old line, who he is without sin cast the first stone? i don't know if it was a golfer but it might be this. more after this.

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peter doocy there with more. hey, peter. reporter: neil, the president says he is hoping for diplomacy with iran and a second crack at the nuclear deal with iran while also trying to reassure the israelis nervous about a nuclear deal, at very last resort the u.s. would use military power to prevent iran getting a nuke. to put that in writing president joined a declaration, the united states never to allow iran to acquire a nuclear weapon and it is prepared to use all elements of its national power to insure that outcome. no meeting with iran in this trip. he will huddle with saudi leaders and focusing advancing american interests in the region so middle eastern countries do business with the u.s. instead of china and russia. president biden: when i see the saudi leadership tomorrow i will carry a direct message, a message of peace, extraordinary opportunities that a more stable

region could bring to the region and quite frankly the whole world. reporter: president biden really does not want talk on this trip to veer into the murder of "washington post" journalist jamal khashoggi whose murder was approved by the crown prince. he will meet with tomorrow according to the u.s. intel community. the president will not commit to bringing that murder up tomorrow. president biden: i will bring up, i always bring up human rights, i always bring up human rights but my position on kashoggi has been so clear. if anyone doesn't understand it in saudi arabia anywhere else, than they haven't been around for a while. reporter: and the president's comment there shows how delicate this diplomatic trip is because the president is basically saying, very vaguely, that it is tough to tell somebody murdering journalists is bad and then ask them to help pump more oil on to the market. neil? neil: yeah, i understand can

schorschgy thing right there, a chance to tell the saudis to their face. i guess not. let's go to david rubin. former mayor of jerusalem, good to have you back. >> neil, good to be with you. neil: how would you describe the american israeli relationship these days? >> the american israeli relationship is based on a value such. when i hear the declaration about iran, it has been recycled many times and israelis have getting very impatient about that but i have to tell you, neil, this visit to israel is not about israel. the visit to israel is about saudi arabia and, what you have here is a situation where president biden doesn't really understand the arab world.

in the arab world it is all about honor and you know, basically he, when he was running for president he greatly insulted the crown prince of saudi arabia. i'm not talking about right or wrong. there seemed to be good reason, but to insult him. now he has to come back with his tail between his legs to saudi arabia practically begging the crown prince's forgiveness so he will up the oil supply because of a problem that the president himself created when he cut off domestic production. that is how i see it. neil: you know, mayor, it is interesting too, you hear from the white house, or at least in between the lines in the white house that you know, crazy times you know, almost command crazy responses, even if they appear to be complete reversal in position. that the ends will justify the rather awkward means here for

the administration to show its support for saudi arabia, for targeting iran, for still fighting the good fight now along with israel on making sure that iran never gets its hands on nuclear weapons and that they cannot let this issue over the killing of jamal khashoggi get in the way. i don't, seems to be, mayor, the way they're justifying this. how do you look at that? >> well i certainly understand that. certainly makes sense to justify it in that way but, again, i stress that the issue here is mainly saudi arabia. israel has been pushing the united states to help, to help us to stand up against iran. the problem is that we're at the point where only a military response is going to stop iran and israel is prepared to do what needs to be done.

we just want the support of our american friends when the time comes that something has to be done. no way iran is going to solve the problem. neil: one way or the other israel will do it with or without others, is that right? >> that is right. of course we would like the support of our american friends. however i must point out that saudi arabia and all of the persian gulf countries are behind the scenes acting as very, very energetic cheerleaders because they want to see it done as well. neil: they got their priorities to your point. mayor, david rubin, very good seeing you again. thank you so much. >> thank you, neil. neil: the dow down about 460 points weighing the possibility rates go a lot higher. the betting increasingly couple weeks maybe the fed will increase rates a full percentage point. yikes! ♪.

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more likely right now that a lot of people feel the federal reserve when it meets in a couple of weeks will be hiking rates, not three quarters of a point may be as much as a full point spread got all of this covered with one prominent tech company is responding by some big layoffs that startled folks. susan lee on how it's also crypto leverett not all but a good many components grady trimble in chicago on how it has already been hitting the mortgage industry particularly mortgage applications. restart right now with charlie on the microsoft hit, charlie? >> this is details of what is been previously announced less than 1% cut in microsoft workforce. i'm getting insight microsoft as this is mounting to more than jobs present a tiny cut it is over all if you have it work force of 180,000 that microsoft has.

it's more than a thousand continents more the than people thought it would happen. this is on the high side of the less than 1% cut from what i understand from inside the company. what does this mean broadly? a big tech is reacting to what you're seeing on the screen, read, fears of a recession. tears of a bigger rate hike that is coming down because of inflation. we should point out, as you know the fed overt shoots often on the rate hikes. even though we might have hit peak inflation of 9%, 9.1% in the last read it worries about inflation coming back. the likelihood of a 1% cut is a port 75 basis points is pretty high right now given the last money printed. companies see that were heading for a recession. they start cutting back. i keep hearing this for my sources on wall street that jp morgan, morgan stanley, all the

big banks will fall in line with some minor cuts or modest cuts i should say as this recession starts picking up. start raising rates you're going to get an economic slowdown. i think the fed unfortunately is the only game in town. the bite administration is not living with any fiscal policy remedies to increase the supply side of an ration agenda. as you know we have excess demand, not enough supply leading to higher prices. the regulatory environment is not changing in terms of fiscal policy therefore you will have one lever that's restricted monetary policy that often causes a recession. back to you. neil: only game in town my friend only game in town. charlie thank you very much. danielle, you have heard the talk that maybe it is a full percentage point hike and a couple of weeks, what do you think? >> i think markets are rational. it's not normal that the united states is following the bank of

canada. that would indeed be the case they raised bite one full percentage point yesterday. that was kind of a shock to the market. neil: as a person the bank in canada has done that is in it? >> yes this is unusual part wishes to the federal reserve and the driver seat globally. the biggest economy is over the u.s. treasury for the entire world and yet we seem to be behind other central banks in this current episode but especially given what you just said. inflation rising at an even hotter pace on the wholesale side. and to it just talking about and layoffs we have got jobless claims up nearly 50% off their march 19 at low's. whenever that is happened in the past we have been looking in the rearview mirror at recession. it was a tense thing by the time you get jobless claims coming off their lows of 166,000 on march 16 as we have now. neil: are beginning to see it as you said the last time you were

here, danielle, likely 1000 job cuts at microsoft. under 1% of its workforce, google saying it's going to slow it's hiring right now. twitter resending job offers to college graduates. but there is a pattern to this and it is building, what do you make of it? >> there is a pattern. it is building. what he found to be most unusual in this morning's data where jobless claims are rising the fastest is neil, it's much more than a silicon valley phenomenon startups that over hired another ham to pare back. charlie was just talking about this bleeding into financials but of course this will bleed into the financial sector where we have seen a robust hiring and post pandemic era. of course it well. my greatest concern it's broadening out across the entire economy and that is going to affect everyone for the time. households continue to struggle the highest inflation the

highest price pressures for the essentials, energy, home, food. neil: i looked out at the future vets and people make. is not necessarily the stuff often times they are wrong. but the bedding now not that all that long ago we see the fed started to cut rates on the latter part of next year. now they are apparently putting that off until 2024 are you in that camp? >> you know, neil, i would be shocked to see that u.s. economy withstand the kind of pressure that is being priced in by investors. you say they play the game, right? there's two full percentage points price into this market before we hit new year's 2023. i just cannot see standpat over next are the implication is we be in recession i cannot fathom

that. >> you have to go a lot higher in two full percentage points you would get up close to run 4% if got inflation now running north of 9% of the retail not that it has to get up to that level. but those rate hikes those slowdown. the 2% goal, that seems unattainable for the time being. >> it seems like it is pretty far out there. especially when you consider prices have come down off their highs but they are still very stubborn. it also takes time for housing and inflation as it begins to decline to actually show up. this is going to be a big nemesis for jay powell and federal reserve officials were. >> great catching up with you. i think in this case with got a hit on issues to bump some out, you are good at the stuff danielle i appreciate that. also appreciate susan lee taken a second look at what is coming on in the crypto arena. let's just say all of these developments and a couple of key

crypto exchanges in serious, serious trouble. let's take a look at where we stand right now. >> would have the crypto continuing one of the largest crypto banks and lenders around. the celsius bank has filed for bankruptcy. we knew this was coming. it's the third crypto company to file for chapter 11. remember that was also one of the first to hold client withdrawals but crypto has three arrows over leverage and its down with other companies including the crypto exchange voyager along with it. celsius at its peak it is much as $10 billion in assets under management. 100,000 plus customers. it's other big competitors were also in trouble. it was caught up in the three arrows blow it. block bite was extended a lifeline by crypto billionaire, freed owned ftx as you know he extended the line of credit option to buy for $400 million.

spf's called in the crypto market and he declined actually to provide the same help the same lifeline digs to the chapter filing for celsius it's a big creditor to celsius as well through his other two funds and not the ftx directly. it's becoming the worn buffet was in 2008 becoming similar to that in the crypto collapse. during the collapses of buffet accented cash to bank of america to keep them alive and that is what it's doing right now. he's trying to backstop any future collapses which mike hurt and scare away crypto hopefully not for long time that's we try to prevent. also knowing bitcoin is up today that suggests we have some divergence with the broader stock market itself. bitcoin, as you know commas advertises digital gold is a hedge against high inflation and

bad government policy. the problem is bitcoin is not acted that way pretty specially in this order when your high inflationary environment we live in. it's really been moving lockstep the past fears and brought with the broader stark market. very heavily correlated to the nasdaq. more hedge funds, more mainstream investors have bought into bitcoin. but here's the thing the latest data suggest an bitcoin is up today as we have stock markets falling, is that correlation is only at 50% rate meaning only 50% of the time when markets go up does bitcoin go up and only 50% of the time at market sell off bitcoin goes down along with it. physics art susan thank you for that. following the crypto arena. if you are still brave enough to take a look at what's going on the mortgage arena, have added. grady trimble is in chicago look at mortgage applications. not surprisingly sliding. don't think they expected it sliding this much, grady what is the latest?

>> no, they fell by a lot but we are also seeing, neil, prospective buyers decided maybe it now might not be the best time to buy. that is because of recession years, raising mortgage rates and inflation but all of those contributing to what the new survey from quicken inc. found. of those who are considering buying a house this year or even planning to buy a house this year, about seven in ten, 69% are now reconsidering or scrapping those plans entirely. for buyers their money just is not going as far as it would have a year ago or so. it's a combination of high home values and rising mortgage rates making homes, especially for first-time buyers too expensive. you are also seeing higher rent and inflation making it really hard for people to save up right now for a down payment. so as a result we are seeing mortgage applications decreasing, falling 4% from the previous week and 18% drop from that same week last year.

rex we offer almost the last two years. now were going to typical business work of leveling off. they're not crazy buying but there's a lot of demand out there. >> okay maybe not a complete crash in the market to come. but certainly a leveling office with that realtor said. we are also seeing deals falling through at the highest rate since the start of the pandemic. that is partly because mortgage rates are going up. it is also because once again, buyers are having homes of praise and inspected. remember for a while they were completely waving those appraisals and inspections. it seems like those days are over for it as a result we are seeing more deals not coming together in the end, neil. thirty-six you grady trimble in chicago and all that. this is been a good news kind of scary newsweek the stunning

images from the web satellite telescope a million miles away from earth that are showing galaxies in the universe. 13 billion light years away. and closer to home, the moon, we want to go back there for a of us the chinese. a lot of people here want to take over, after this. >> that's one small step for man. one giant leap for mankind.

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and asking themselves, "why can't i lose weight?" for most, the reason is insulin resistance, and they don't even know they have it. conventional starvation diets don't address insulin resistance. that's why they don't work. now, there's golo. golo helps with insulin resistance, getting rid of sugar cravings, helps control stress and emotional eating, and losing weight. go to golo.com and see how golo can change your life. that's g-o-l-o.com. neil: alright nasa has something they are excited about, something to be worried about pretty excited on the left-hand side of your screen. images of the universe that are just reaching us 13 billion years away. all of that is very exciting from the new web telescope it's going around a million miles

away. unobstructed view of the entire galaxy, the universe. taking these stunning images we've never before seen it. closer to home there is the moon. of course we conquer that a long time ago. and now everyone is back to trying to use that as a base of operation for further lunar travel and beyond print including the chinese better putting more money into the effort more than all other countries including our own combined. that is wearing a lot of folks. they're growing fears the chinese are going to do on the moon what they tried to do in the south china sea and are doing. taking over islands that do not belong to them and militarizing them. should we be worried? jim bridenstine joins us again. great to see you again. >> great to be here. neil: what you think about these chinese beer they do not come in peace? >> i think is important to note they are going to the moon. they are going with russia.

and the united states of america needs to take it very seriously in the sense that we need to go to the moon her lineage both our international partners through niche commercial program so nasa is in fact a customer and one customer of many customers in a robust commercial environment. and we need these commercial providers to go get include international partners. that directness china is going. with the united states america needs to do likewise. >> it's a new version of the space race we had with the then soviet union. and maybe some of these theories are too paranoid. we should look what the chinese has indeed done make it military basis.

there is precedent. you lead with the james webb space telescope. we are talking about images that are from 13 billion light years away but that's a very long distance as far as we have ever seen. and yet the united states of america can do it and we do it with our international partners. we now have landed on mars nine times in human history. we've explored every planet in the system. international space station for 22 years. we've got the parker solar probe flying to the atmosphere of the sun. we have so many great

accomplishments that we in the united states have achieved. we are doing it with our international partners. here is what i think we need to be nervous about. the fact that china is moving forward very rapidly and they are telling the world they are going to be the leader. do great things i need a partner of china. here is what we know, neil, we know the united states of america do great things for it we need the international partners that we have helped develop their space capabilities, we need them to be with us as we continue to astonishing things. and yes the james webb space telescope does images that will forever change our understanding of physics. that was an american leadership effort per we can do great things, we just have to make sure congress is doing it and the achievements we are trying to perform, that they span multiple administrations. it cannot become partisan. it cannot become political.

james webb is a perfect example of a project that stands multiple administrations. >> the allure of the moon all over again, what is it about? is it using it as a base for other space missions going forward? what change from leading at 50 years ago and reconsidering it today? >> the key here and this is very important we need to get to mars. mars is the destination but when i was an administrator we discovered mars is covered in complex organic compound. the building blocks of life exists on the surface of mars. they do not exist liquid water 12 kilometers under the surface of mars. what we know about liquid water on earth? whatever exist there is life it doesn't matter if it's a raindrop on mars the methane

cycle matched mars that does not guarantee life on mars. but the probability keeps going up. there is going to be a discovery one day of whether or not there is or maybe it was in the past life on mars. that discovery needs to be made by the united states of american our allies as we move forward. because it will forever add chapters to history books and science books. it is part of who we are as a nation to this type of exploration. where the moon comes in is we need to understand how to learn. we need to learn how to live and work on another planet for long periods of time. the challenge with mars is earth and mars are on the same side of the sun once every 26 months. when you go to mars you have to stay there for almost two years before you can come home. the value of the moon it is a three day journey they are. it is a three-day journey home for it the south apollo 13 things can go wrong you can still come up for the moon

safely. the moon is the proven grout it's how we learn to live and work on another world. mars is the destination because that is going to change help children learn, about history and science. and the united states of america. neil: for other the reasons the challenge of learning something new. jim bridenstine thank you very much but never the famous speech by john kennedy hood conquered mount everest. we do it because it is there. rather simple rather direct. because that is in our interest as a species. bubbles bubbles so many bubbles!

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neil: right pedal he is going to

lose another prime minister in case you're counting the 29th the prime minister since adjust the end of world war ii 1945. it's offering to resign right now. he is former head of the european central bank. so when italy recruited him to take over there, it was like recruiting a rock star. he was a global favorite. things could not get done it quickly deteriorated. a key member of the coalition government that was supposed to go along with the spending initiative in italy bowed out of it. suffice it to say it's out of there. and on the way out it's just telling people i enjoyed it i am out. will keep you posted what happens now. keep you posted what's happening here the same thing the devil and telling devil us in spades. their inflation resell half our own and it is getting bad. not bad enough people are skipping out eating out. they are being more selective in what they order. webster all of that in florida.

hey ashley. next i am on my tenth coffee right now i'm a little jittery you will understand. i am with the potato patch at diner that's been your for some 25 years it's a favorite everyone knows when they come to the door. hyatt skyrocketing inflation have had an impact pretty wanting to shoot a couple of folks will bring and denise, you've been coming here 15 years. >> are you coming here as often as you were before since we've seen this massive inflation take hold? >> no i am not. i used to come twice a week, sometimes three times a week. now i come once every other week. >> you lived on a fixed income you are retired. things are getting so expensive. how hard is it to manage? >> is very hard to pry bite less at the grocery store pray don't fill my vehicle up anymore i cannot afford it. the raising my rent $500 for. >> let me bring in now doug.

you are the owner of this diner part. >> i. >> ingersoll exposed food, gas supplies, everything is going up. how are you parting on this extra cost to your customers? >> yes and the laborers and other big. one price increase about a year ago things are not coming down there getting actually worse. they big prices that the double probably in the last year. on the stables up? >> who knows? i'm not sure how you actually define it and believe when they talk about it. but we have seen a drop here by the restaurant is not seen a drop it's more higher end. they have room to space people out little higher than steak and seafood for. >> who do you blame for all of this? >> i think the government is not

helping at all. i think we should involving more internal or domestic like we did on mr. trump, president trump. they are not making it easy for small businesses estate and business at many levels, insurance included. quickly asking the same question who to blame for this? >> i blame the government, i blame biden. we were doing great under trump. i voted for trump. and if he comes i'm going to vote for him again. because i believe he will try to do as much as he can. he cares about the regular people. i don't get the feeling joe biden cares that much. fix both of you thanks so much. big fan. >> a big fan also by adding an item to the menu is called the "build back better" on much free to get half for twice the price. [laughter] for six that's exactly what i thought you should say. see what i did there?

seeing all you guys i appreciate it. in florida beautiful neck of the woods. you feel the pinch there you feel the pinch for customers. one of the most successful chains handle all of this? i am talking about vicki's barbecue pit. they are everywhere. but laura, i have a bone to pick with you. i love your food. but you never alerted me that a couple of days ago was national mac & cheese date. i know you celebrate in high time and not even a shipment of barbecue to my office secretly done. how did that day go by the way? kidding by the way. >> i promise. [laughter] i promise next time i will definitely send you some mac & cheese. we did get to celebrate that with our brisket mac & cheese brood ticket to celebrate that's a good thing. very good day for mac & cheese levers. >> doing stuff is a strategy to it too, recognizing it you have a lot of that stuff you have a

great barbecue and all that. but you know, your customers are average folks too. and they feel the pinch. are they changing what they order? what are they doing? >> absolutely paired we are definitely seeing recession type behavior but we are seeing folks use more coupons but we are seeing folks, and what leftovers so they are buying more family packs as opposed to individualized meals. they are ordering more daily specials. we are seeing different than recessions before as we are seeing folks who are or drink more delivery because they are not wanting to pay for the fuel themselves seemingly. you might think folks would be reducing cost. but the fuel is so high that folks are opting to pay a set delivery price per that's an interesting trend we are seeing. neil: matter where you go we look at the benches and everything everything else that you put into your stuff. the beef, the port, the chicken but no matter where you look you cannot hide from all of this.

how do people to put their orders? i am just afraid the nation goes vegetarian i hope that does not happen. fax no, no, no. [laughter] neil: what you seeing? >> i'm always an optimist i look for the good news. while we are seeing some relief in the protein market we are seeing for example brisket was down 20 cents a pound in july. ribs were down about 90 cents a pound in july. check and we are finally expecting to see some relief of the smoked chicken wonderful smoked chicken wings about a 17% reduction over july that we expect to hit in september. i did not see that myself to the fourth of july at barbecue. of the fuel cost. but we are seeing the good cost in protein it's the fuel cost impacting every piece of the supply chain but that is why you're still seeing incredibly high prices. >> on the chicken price is not really slowing down. how do you handle that?

>> so, in fact they are up 103% over last year. that is incredibly high. the goodness for chicken again, try to find the optimism, you have a short production cycle. you can meet demand a little bit better than brisket. interesting what we are seeing a brisket is more 2008 conditions. going back to that looming recession. preachers are sending more of the herd into production because of the drought and because of their own increase in feeding costs. that will provide temporary relief, which is good news if we do expect that to swing back up in september. the weight we move around soa highlight and what we focus on our menu. thankfully with eight proteins, we have 12 sides. we absolutely suggest to folks there topped with their favorite barbecue, or wonderful sandwich is a great way to go. different things that kind of offset that protein cost find

relief on the menu. physics and i just got over mac & cheese i'm just throwing it out there at national italian anchor day. just do with it what you will. thank you very much continue success laura rea dickey dickey barbecue pit it's a pretty big operation. they are everywhere, everywhere. inflation is everywhere it so out of control but even compelled our president to go to saudi arabia. scripture saint hat in hand to help us out. how's that going to go? after this. finding my way forward with node-positive breast cancer felt overwhelming at times.

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might not come up at all, listen person. alex hogan with the latest. >> hi neil pre-present binds trip here to saudi arabia set to be one of the most delicate and scrutinize political dances. even coming here to saudi arabia is considered a turnaround from previous comments we have heard him make in the past, raising the alarm against human rights concerns and calling the kingdom a pariah. he set is expected to be with nine heads of states the crowd print mohammed bin salman. and essentially the kingdom's ruler. the u.s. accuses the crown prince of approving the myrtle of journalists and u.s. resident jamal khashoggi in 2018. and rejected the accusation calling it false and unacceptable. biden answered questions about this today at not shying away from his take on the matter.

>> i always bring up human rights. late back on jamal khashoggi has been so clear if anyone does not understand it in saudi arabia or anywhere else they've not been around for a while. >> biden went on to reaffirm there's a broader point to this trip. the white house had the goals include a focus on energy, security and the rising oil prices around the world. especially residents at home feel the economic strain for the focus here also includes iran's nuclear powers and nuclear deal talks. another major topic will be relations between israel and saudi arabia. biden will be the first u.s. president to fly directly from israel to saudi. president biden said this is a message of peace and a symbol of progress of acceptance of israel. biden today also commented on the importance of not leaving a vacuum in this region that would

then only be filled by the president potential china or russia, neil. neil: alex hogan thank you for that per let's get the latest here at home for it if we are not going to get more oil from the saudi's are we looking at alternatives to traditional oil here? the ministration so far, as you know is not proven wildly open to the idea of more energy production here. there are alternatives plenty of alternatives. but all over the country exploring them including nuclear jeff joins us and pennsylvania with more on that. >> neil hello to you. couple reasons nuclear has been popular again, couplet nuclear reactors outside of philadelphia but what you see coming out of there that is not co2 that is just steam. that is one of the attractions. it is not a polluter. in addition we've got nuclear that is price competitive again.

take a look at energy not pretty at all anywhere but energy up seven have presented last month, 41% in the last year. that has made nuclear essentially competitive again. and the administration kind of realizing that they need nuclear. the infrastructure bill with $6 billion to keep nuclear power plants like this when open. two and half billion dollars for research on new infrastructure smaller plants to be easier and cheaper to build smart making the plants open not do it some have done what you shut them down prematurely. listen. >> we do not want to go down the road like germany were they prematurely shut down all of their nuclear reactors and an

under found decision. and now are turning their coal power plants back online and increasing their admissions portfolio. >> now i would be remiss we are not a polluter people would point out those that oppose nuclear power there is the problem of spent nuclear fuel. it has got to be dealt with. at this point, most of the nuclear fuel is stockpiled at the plants where it was generated right some people think that's not such a hot idea. beyond that though, i will tell you, the administration has said it's going to be climate goals, nuclear is essential for even the administration admitting that. neil: thank you on that. with all of the troubles we are having with inflation and everything else, most states not get help during covered. they get a little cocky about they have a little money. state comptroller in new york that says to be on the safe

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neil: you really want the guys overseeing your tax money to be spending it wisely bright and impressed with the state controller thomas dinapoli. a lot post covered, as saying we won't always have this flusher. let's be more careful plan for rainy day or recession. thank you very much. >> thank you very much good to be with you. neil: what is the reaction you're getting on both sides of the aisle? are you raining on their parade or how would you characterize it? >> i think we got a fair hearing from the legislature from the governor. i will say one of the admonitions we have out there over a number of years is that we needed to build up our rainy day reserves. new york has not done as good of

a job in that regard compared to many states for number of years with action this year budget agreement we saw a significant increase in that rainy day funds. most importantly commitment to build them back strongly over the course of the financial plan. what's happening right now, neil, one of the recommendations made was perhaps it's time to accelerate building out those ready date reserves. new york sells a strong cash position we should be even more aggressive building up those reserves. thirty-six what i admire about that position is many people just assume. it is individuals as well your flesh and cast you think it's going to last forever and you spend like crazy in the realize boom it's gone. we do not prepare ourselves. that's individual families as well not to say anything of the federal government for the time that ends or ended everything goes in cycles. how worried are you about that in new york? the financial industry is crucial to revenue. in the city and the state. i am just wondering what you see happening?

>> too that point, neil, heart recommendation we said last year when wall street had near record profits it just was not sustainable. that was not going to last. and especially for the state the taxes we derive from the securities industry accounts about 18% of total revenue. was a concern about where we were headed. i guess the goodness in the short run, we are still adding jobs. new york of course was hit hard particularly the city with the pandemic. with the national job recover it we are still creating jobs that's good news. tax revenue perspective, withholding is a strong area of tax revenue. personal income tax revenue still seems to be higher than a bunch of projections for the could have numbers very shortly. or for june and it still going to show a strong performance as far as tax revenue. but with all the headwinds that are out there reporting all of

the challenges of that situation changed rapidly. inflation, geopolitical what the fed is going to do. so we really have to have that bright yellow light of caution out there. >> you mention the banks and some disappointed earnings for their stocks are getting hit to your point the market in general is getting hit. normally that is a slow down and the host of other sectors. maybe we are arty seeing it in real estate and across the state. particularly in manhattan in its own little universe. are you worried there is a reception? excessively worried the sum of the analysis. there's so many contradictory trends right now. there certainly some very negative data points we are seeing. but i still have it back to the jobs continuing to grow. it seems counterintuitive. we will see if that situation

holds up and what it all adds up too. we are starting to see as far as the energy of a trend that will accelerate? who knows but with a be a settlement in the war in ukraine, not likely but who knows parade there is so much that happens on a rapid basis. i am concerned about it, that's why we have to be more cautious and build up is reserved for the rainy day maybe here we need to pull out the umbrellas with our reserves. i just want to say new york is not spending all that federal money we received all at once. it has built into multiyear the financial plan. we popped the pole and some of that money that was targeted help get through this time but we want to cut back on some of the services support for childcare, healthcare, education we think will be important to keeping families home during this tough time. neil: 's very impressive to watch. how you are looking at your

recovered $292 million in overpayments, third-party insurance coverage, the medicaid arena. you are looking at those kind of numbers and you are dealing with billions of dollars, that is a good sign for taxpayers. thank you very much. thomas dinapoli at new york state comptroller. there is a concept, prepare for just in case a worst-case scenario. individuals can do it, congress can do, states can do it. ♪ meet jessica moore. jessica was born to care. she always had your back... like the time she spotted the neighbor kid, an approaching car, a puddle, and knew there was going to be a situation. ♪ ♪ ms. hogan's class? yeah, it's atlantis. nice. i don't think they had camels in atlantis. really?

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neil: this is it in a nutshell. why we're taking it in the market again. retail inflation out of control, wholesale inflation out of control. what you are paying eventually down the road, given this producer price index report gets worse. here is cheryl casone right now, with the latest. cheryl? cheryl: thank you, neil. i'm cheryl casone in for charles payne on "making money. record inflation hits every aspect of our daily lives. producer prices jumping more than expected in june, fresh off yesterday's hotter than expected cpi. adding to the turmoil disappointing bank earnings with jamie dimon sending a chilling warning. comingp