covid hit. so the economy has taken some supply-side hits. and so we're sort of saying, oh, well, the labor market's strong, but actually we're way below peak employment, so we are in a weak economy that hasn't fully recovered. it could have been, should have been a v-shaped recovery, it's not, ask now we're paying the price. maria: okay. great conversation, dagen, nick, kenneth, kevin, we appreciate it. market down 35 on the dow industrials, "varney & company" begins right now. stu, take it away. stuart: good morning, everyone. you can call it what you like, recession or or slowdown. i'll just give you the straight numbers. in the first three months of the year, the economy contracted at an annual rate of 1.6 percent. in the second quarter, april through june, at an annual rate of .9%. so in the first half of the year, the economy did shrink. i'm going to call it a biden recession. also in the gdp report, 8.7% or

inflation. so, yeah, we're in a are recession. we have inflation, and i'm going to call that stagflation. bide within's stagflation. biden's stagflation. that's where we are. this is other big news. senator joe manchin has caved. he's done a 180. for months he said no spending, no big tax hikes. now he says, oh, it's okay to spend $370 billion on climate and green energy, and it's o.k. to take a half trillion tax hike and stick the it on big business. strangely, this new plan is called inflation reduction act of 2032 -- 2022. hard to believe. the dow was up 400 points yesterday after the big rate hike from the fed, this morning down only maybe 40 points at the opening bell. the s&p up 100 yesterday, that was wednesday. this morning, down maybe 4. no reaction. the nasdaq up an astonishing 9 percent this week, and today it

might be down, what, 30 points at the opening bell, despite the muse on the recession and inflation -- the news. maybe the market thinks the fed will be forced to pivot. we'll see. take a look at meta, that's the parent company of facebook and instagram, the stock is down, what, 4.5% this morning. big gains yesterday for the big with tech companies. today all of them on the downside but not by much. remember though, we do get two giants reporting after the belled today, apple and amazon. well, remarkable actioned today in the markets and in politics. and there's this too: bubba watson, he's considering joining the saudi-backed liv tour. his pee for joining is said -- fee for joining is said to be $50 million. if -- mr. trump will be at bedminster today. there's a lot going on, real drama today. i'm still scratching my head about joe manchin.

what made him cave? thursday, july 28th, 2022. "varney & company" is about to begin. ♪ ♪ these are the days to remember ♪♪ [laughter] stuart: i'm laughing because i've never heard of a band called the 10,000 maniacs -- lauren: i'm laughing at the title and the lyrics, these are the days. a recession, of inflation. stuart: that's you putting those lines -- lauren: yeah. stuart: that's not the lines in the song. [laughter] lauren: i thought producers chose this song as making fun of the times. stuart: okay. i'll go with that. all right. let's get serious. come on, now. it doesn't matter what the white house says, we are in a are recession. we have confirmation of that

this morning with the gdp numbers. lauren: i know. much worse than expected. it was supposed to be positive, and it came this negative. contracting in the spring by .9%. inflation is hitting consumers. you know that. you've shifted your spending from goods to services. service spending in this report up 4.1%, but goods spending down a greater 4.4% meaning, yes, the airports are full because you're taking that that vacation. it's an experience. you are not going to walmart. i also looked at the gdp price index that measures prices for goods and services, it's up 8.7%. we know that because we've seen cpi at 9.1, but that's the highest since 1981. so when you see two negative quarters of contracting growth and your -- you're debating if it's a recession, it's a duh moment. stuart: the economy has contracted in the first six months of this year, and inflation is running at an 8.7%

rate. professor brian brenberg, economics professor, no less. brian, are we -- i say we're many stagflation mode. what say you? >> yeah. yes. we have stagflation, stuart, and we have 10,000 maniacs in washington, d.c -- [laughter] because in the midst of stagflation these guys want to spend more money! a rl dollars week -- the trillion dollars week in money that passed the senate and that is proposed by schumer and manchin. this is insane. we got into stagflation because of overspending and all of this green new nonsense, and now we're going to do more of it! coming out of d.c., that is a recipe to take what you saw today and extend it for months to come, stuart. stuart: now, do you have any explanation for why senator manchin did this 180? i mean, just a couple of months ago he was saying no new taxes, no big spending on green energy, we're not having any of that.

and now he put forward a plan, as you say, with over a half trillion dollars in taxes and 370 billion on climate and energy. why did he change his mind, any idea? >> the worst possible timing. you could not pick a worse day for that announcement to come out on than today. look, he's a politician, stuart. a democrat, and his party matters when it comes to his re-election. and he's doing his political math. that's the problem when the economy is controlled by politicians. they're interested primarily this in their own prospects to get reelected, and he thought he could sneak something in here, spend some money, give democrato back him again, maybe not ruffle the deaths of the people in west virginia. if you're in west virginia today, you ought to be incensed that your senator is talking about three-quarters trillion dollars in tax hikes and spending. that is an economy killer. stuart: one quick with point.

the language in this new plan may allow some more rapid permitting of pipelines. did you know that? and one of the pipelines -- >> yeah. stuart: -- which could be permitted is the mountain valley pipeline that takes nat gas from west virginia, manchin's home state, to neighboring virginia. i wonder if that had anything to do with it? i'm being kind of snarky here. >> yeah, yeah, yeah. well, probably. and i hear that they're dangling that as part of this deal. i've also heard that's supposed to come later as part of this deal. i'll believe it when i see it, stuart. hey, how about this? do the pipeline by itself. you don't have to spend all the money, do the taxes. do the pipeline, actually help americans save a little money and for once fight inflation. but they're not doing that. they're spending, they're centralizing power, and american budgets get squeezed, federal budgets grow like crazy. stuart: you're far too rational, professor. [laughter]

10,000 maniacs, i got that. very good. hey, professor, thanks a lot, sir. >> you bet, good to see you. stuart: david bahnsen is here. there's the futures, not much reaction to the inflation/stagflation report. david bahnsen's with us this morning. we're in a deep recession -- we're in a recession. we've got stagflation. can the fed keep raising rates rapidly? >> no. at some point they're going to have to ca pitch if late, and they were always going to capitulate, and they'll say it's because they want to counter the negative economic aspect. it's really because, ultimately, the fed is a coddler of financial markets. and eventually whether it's housing, stock market, credit markets which is a huge thing no one's talking about the, the fed will end up chickening out. but i don't believe that the fed believes that them raising rates is actually the antidote to this inflation because we do not have high inflation because we've had low interest rates. we have distorted markets

because of low interest rates, and they need to be higher. but the interest rates are not what caused energy production to go so far down. we have a supply-side-generated inflation problem. that's the real truth no one wants to talk about. stuart: and will this extra trillion dollars worth of spending that's been proposed just this week, will that lower inflation? >> well, of course not. i don't know are where people are getting the trillion from. i've read the entire bill, and everything i'm seeing is absurd spending and silly, but it doesn't come close to a trillion. so i don't -- [audio difficulty] but of course it isn't going to lower inflation. so putting a label on it of the lower inflation if act is similar to my diet plan, stuart. i want to lose weight by increasing steak and chinese food. stuart: i know that all of our viewers look forward to your dividend plays, and you've brought two with you today. first of all, 3m. what's the dividend, why do you

like it? >> yeah. 3m has been one with of the great dividend growers in american history for almost 100 years. they've grown the dividend every year, but they had the best report this week that they've had since we bought the stock about two years ago. and so the dividend is about 4%, great dividend growth, and they're spinning off their health care unit which is going to create a lot of value. stuart: the second one is the simon property group, mall operators. why do you like them? >> yeah. they're going to announce earnings monday afternoon, and i think that the stock is down a lot this year because people think, oh, folks are shopping less and the economy's tough. but the landlords still have to pay rent, and they own great assets, great real estate, and there's just a lot of value in this. but, stuart, you're going to love this, it's paying a 6.5% dividend. so we like the stock price being low, earnings coming up and a great 6.5% yield. stuart: wow, i could go for

that, definitely. david, thank you very much. we'll see you again real soon, good stuff. thank you. >> yes, sir. stuart: dramatic news this morning, wheat -- and this is my opinion -- we're in stagflation. we've got 8% inflation, and we've got a contracting economy. the market's only down a couple of points. all right, coming up, radio host charlemagne god slamming president biden and the democrats for not protecting our rights, he says. roll tape. >> let's keep in this mind we voted for the people we thought were going to protect us from, you know, the bad guys. and it looks like right now the bad guys are winning. stuart: we'll tell you what else he had to say. and there's this: more than 50 republicans call for president biden to take a cognitive test after his recent gaffes. is he up for the job at 79? jason chaffetz takes that on later in the show. ♪ ♪

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♪ oh, this is how it starts -- ♪ lightning if strikes the heart, it goes off like a gun ♪♪ stuart: looks like a nice day right there. that is miami, florida. currently it's 84 degrees. it probably goes up from there. look at futures. a bit of a conundrum the, i've got to say. on day we get news that we have, indeed, gone into recession, the market actually goes up. the dow is up 4, nasdaq's -- down 6.

market is not selling off. and it had a huge rally yesterday. not selling off this morning despite the news on the recession and inflation. extraordinary stuff. and then we have gop leader kevin mccarthy, house gop leader i should say, he met with republicans trying to come up with a midterm strategy. what are they going to do in the november elections. the democrats have a strategy of tax and spend. all right, lauren, what is the republican strategy? lauren: well, they're going to try to find one. he's telling kids -- lawmakers, go out, talk to your constituents, what are the issues that matter to them, and then we'll figure out how we're going to address that. they want to copycat what newt gingrich did in the '90s, right? the contract with america. it helped republicans flip both chambers back in 1994 in a big way, and that's what they want to do the here. it should probably be for something instead of against something, right? we're going to invest in, we want to keep crt out of schools. we -- me, i -- constantly criticize democrats for some of

their policies, but with maybe republicans need to be for something -- stuart: come up with their own. [laughter] all right. i want to get back to senator manchin and his total flip-flop on taxes and spending. mercedes schlapp joins us now. i keep coming back to this. why do you think he did this total 180? why? >> right. well, you know, it was interesting because i've talked to several sources who have said that, actually, this has been in the making, deal has been in the making for quite some time. i think he put certain markers down where he did -- joe manchid a lot of money like build back better and so was trying to reduce the amount of climate and energy subsidies that they were providing. and also the $300 billion deficit reduction had to be part of it. i think that's where they got joe manchin. now, it's perplexing to me that he went forward with this deal because at the end of the day

the democrats are not going to be able to improve their standing with the american people if they are pushing more government spending. it's very unpopular to do so right now. but i think the democrats got very nervous that you were going to see premium increases in their obamacare, their health care plan, and that, i think, was the are red flag for the democrats where they said, look, we've got to act now and fast. i don't think you're going to see there be in any way a blue wave with even with this piece of legislation being passed and signed by the president. stuart: they're hanging their hats on this new plan which is, what, $370 billion on climate and energy. which includes subsidies for health care and lower drug costs. you don't think that's a powerful enough argument? you really think that government spending at this time is really unpopular? because it's a form of buying votes. >> well, again, the government spending is part of what's causing some of this inflation that a we're seeing, and i think

for the american people they want to see food prices going down, they want gas prices going down. obviously, i think don't want to see increases in premiums, but are they going to give that credit to the democrats? i don't know. i think that you're seeing these poll numbers of the democrats and of president biden being so unpopular, the right track/wrong track numbers, i mean, they're turned upside down for the democrats. and so they're in trouble. they're trying to salvage what they can, and they think that by passing this legislation it's going to help them, but you're focused on climate subsidies and energy subsidies while america is not energy independent, that's troubling. that's not going to be a winning message for the democrats come november. stuart: your message, the republican message, has to be one with of growth. smaller government and growth. you've got to get back to that, surely. >> it's energy security, it's economic security, it's national security, and it's border security. just think about that. what a concept. it's about having safe

communities, strengthening our families, making sure our kids are not being indoctrinated. these cultural issues are also playing a huge role, these culture issues, in these elections. in addition to the economy being the top, top theme and issue that you're seeing republicans run on, how are we going to bring this inflation down, how are we going to insure that american families are able to get through these very difficult economic times. and, quite frankly, we mow that the biden economic approach, well, first of all, they're in recession denial. and secondly, they're not solving these economic problems quick enough. stuart: that's right. recession denial. i'll use that expression myself. mercedes schlapp, thank you very much, indeed. [laughter] see you later, thanks. >> thank you. stuart: and radio host charlamagne tha god says he voted for president biden to, quote, protect our rights. doesn't sound like he's particularly happy about his performance, does it? lauren: he is powerful in bringing in the youth vote and

black votes. and he did express i'm going to call it some reluctance with the administration. >> we all just did our best. we did our civic duties, and we went out there and voted for the president we thought, you know, could protect our rights. doesn't look like those rights are being protected all the way right now. let's keep in mind we voted for the people we thought were going to protect us from the, you know, bad guys, and it looks like the bad guys are winning. lauren: i think the bad guys are republicans, and he just conceded the bad guys are winning. do you remember when he interview ised kamala harris, and he asked who's the president, manchin or biden? i think that shows his frustration that the party's being pulled left -- stuart: to the center -- lauren: when the left wants it more to the left. that's not where the country is. stuart: let's check futures again, because we've got a turn around. now the dow industrials are up 5

points, s&p up 3, nasdaq's down only 20 points. it was up 4% yesterday. no selloff this morning. we'll take you to the opening bell next. ♪ ♪

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♪ stuart: all right, very interesting picture emerging on the market morning despite the recession news and the inflation news. dow's going to be up, the s&p's up, and the nasdaq's barely down. gary kaltbaum with us now. gary, i've got a feeling that investors are saying, hook, we're in recession, we've got this economic problem, the fed has to pivot. it can't go really aggressive. is that what the market's saying this morning? >> correct, my friend. my hashtag whenever i put in the markets on twitter is hashtag easy money because that's what the market loves. and it just took a few words yesterday from jay powell about potentially staying around here with interest rates and not, you know, raising rates to 3.5 or 4% fed funds that did the trick. so the notion that we're in recession, we're in slowdown and

jobs still remain okay has the market thinking mr. powell can be easy and, thus, the futures turn around a little bit. but just keep in mind i am not so sure we're off to the races. even today on earnings a bunch of names are blowing up, and i don't think it's going to be an end-all, be-all, you have to be selective. stuart: so you're not ready to jump back in with both with feet at point. >> no. last week for the first time in a long time i bought into the market. not necessarily individual names, because of earnings coming out. i think les a chance of going higher -- there's a chance of going high higher. in bear markets two steps down, one stop up. we have a chance here for really first time since last november, we need one more push to the upside, and i can tell you not necessarily off to the racings -- races, but the trend may be changing. bear markets sting. stuart: we just put up on the

screen the yield on the 10-year treasury. it's all the way down to 2.68%. what's your -- i find that fascinating. i don't know why it's dropped to such a level. can you tell us why? >> that is the market screaming slowdown, simple as that. just remember, the market started bottoming when yields started topping out. we hit almost 3.5, and so we've come down can markedly. and with the cost of capital coming down, that's always going to help the market to a certain extent. but i will tell you this: if the job market gets in trouble and the recession deepens and lengthens, i can promise you no easy money's going to help the market. we will head down and we'll have another leg down. i'm watching the job market as close as anything at this juncture and, hopefully, it stays strong because, if it doesn't, look out below. this market's to not to going to be able to tak i i ua ar tb km,tbauha tou y ry wait aut mut you n i i spatin ment?omen

m a a i barnd me up te to tell me, tellshi that varney guy he's the coolest dude on tv, and i'm not making that up. [laughter] stuart: gary, thank you so much for that. i really wanted to hear that. you make me feel so much better. it's easy to charm me. [laughter] it's easy, i tell you with. all right, here we go. i 9:30. we're in recession no matter what the white house says, and we've got inflation no matter what the white house says, 8.7% in the latest report. the market is open, and look at this, we've gone higher. the dow has opened with a 70-point gain. not quite a quarter percent, but it's up. microsoft up another buck there, it was up 16 yesterday. the s&p 500 also on the upside despite recession, despite inflation. we're at 4,030. the nasdaq, dead flat to ever so slightly higher.

look at that, you're in a recession and you don't have a selloff on the market. big tech, microsoft is up, apple is up, amazon is up. they report afternoon. meta, though, nearly 5% down, and google pulling back after big gains recently. okay, meta stock is down 50% this year. lauren: and down another 5% right now. this is a big deal. they reported their first ever quarterly sales drop. it is very hard to sugar coat this report card. their ad revenue, their growth engine, their moneymaker, it was down. their ad prices fell, and then you look at the reality labs division which houses metathe, which is meta, it lost $2.8 billion. so, you know, hen you have the ceo, mark zuckerberg normally starts the call saying we that another good quarter, that was another great quarter. he didn't do that. he said we're reducing head

count, and we're goinged to do so steady lu over the next year -- steadily over the next year. we're making smart decisions. stuart: that's a rotten looking chart, straight down. left to right, straight down. all right. now, a variety of bug names reported -- big names reported earlier this morning. comcast is down 7%. lauren: this is ugly. they actuallied to add subscribers -- they failed to add subscribers for the first time ever. their broadband, their growth engine, grinded to a halt. a lot of competition especially from the wireless carriers now. the good news is their movie studio and theme parks are r rebounding. stuart: pfizer reported. i'm interested this in their thought. since the pandemic began it's gone from 35 to 50. lauren: paxlovid, the pill, topped $8 billion in sales. ba-5 is the new variant, right?

they stuck to, they did not increase their full-year forecast. you've got to remember they do business overseas, they're hit by the strong dollar, and they took a $2 billion hit because of it this quarter. stuart: tell me about harley davidson. i see that stock is green this morning. lauren: bigtime. 5-10% in the motorcycle division full-year outlook, best quarter. sales fell but the -- i know you love that -- in the latest quarter because of the two week shutdown. they had to stop work for two weeks, but a 7.5% gain on an outlook is very solid. stuart: very solid. same with ford motor company. that stock the up 3%. it was up more than that earlier with. lauren: yeah. they're making money selling electric vehicles but also traditional cars and suvs. their margins are 9.3%, basically tripling mt. past three months. they did take a big hit because of their investment in rivian. if you take that out, they tripled profits.

that's a good report card. and i think we wanted to to show you their new police car. it's not a car or a blazer, anything like that, the f-150 lightning. it's kind of cool. it has things that can power the lights when they respond to tens on the highways -- accidents on the highways, and they do business with 12,000 police departments across the country, so this is a moneymaker for them. stuart: how about qualcomm? i know hay had a huge jump in sales, why are they down? >> because their forecast -- it's all about the forecast for the current quarter with. they expect smartphone sales, that's their moneymaker, to fall 5% this year. so that's negative commentary, and that should hit other chipmakers as well as companies like apple. stuart: look, this afternoon after the market closes we're going to get apple, and we're going to to get amazon. two of the largest and most successful companies in the world. they will report this afternoon. can you give us any kind of preview? if. lauren: let's start with apple.

profits should fall 11% at apple. are revenue to grow a modest 2% to an $82.8 billion quarter. that's how big apple is, that much money in one quarter. their iphone, that's where they make a lot of their money, those sales are going to fall for the first time since 5g was introduced back in to -- 2020. then you have china shut down. maybe they set the bar low and they've warned enough. they're not -- [audio difficulty] it weighs so much on the overall market -- stuart: it's all baked in though, isn't it? lauren: it could be. stuart: apple at 156, so the slightest encouragement would put them up, and the slightest discouragement take them down. how about amazon? lauren: profits to fall 8 82%. can you imagine? $119 billion revenue in three months' time. cloud, that should are -- be

reliable. they've warned us we've got too many warehouses, too much stuff which means there could be a second prime day this fall in october. stuart: news on the airlines, specifically jetblue is going to take control of spirit. now, can you tell me -- what are you laughing at? lauren: because it's your favorite story. stuart: we've got a conclusion. lauren: since april, finally. stuart: stupid, incremental moves. no, we've got a deal. we're going to take spirit, so what kind of airline? lauren: the fifth largest in the u.s., and i was going to saudis count carrier. maybe -- say discount carrier, maybe a cheaper alternative. i hope jetblue upgrades spirit airplanes -- stuart: you're flown on spirit and don't like them? lauren: sorry. it's been a while. it was a onedone experience. stuart: but they are a super discount can, right? lauren: yeah. it's the middle between the legacy traditional carriers expect discount carriers, but

who noses if the anti-- who knows if the antitrust regulators are going to approve this deal. who's to say they're going to green light this? one hurdle done. they've been bidding since april, now they have another headache to get the green light from the regulators, so we'll still be talking about -- stuart: i thought it was done, it's not. there'll be more incremental stories which i absolutely hate. great stuff. thank you very much, lauren. lauren: anytime. here to seven. [laughter] stuart: despite stag nation, the dow is up 68 points. look at the dow winners, please, i've got the list. at top of that list we have honeywell international. they reported earlier today, very solid report. strong business, strong profits, they're up 2%. caterpillar, nike, cisco, chevron, dow winners. s&p 500 winners, show them to me please. solar edge -- lauren: solar edge technologies. stuart: 11%, we'll take that.

oh, royal caribbean is up 9%. got to be some kind of covid news there. etsy, aes, nasdaq composite winners, please? show me big tech. no, we can't do it. [laughter] okay. i'm working on it, folks -- lauren: align technologies. tesla. stuart: yeah, tesla. 846, is your price. honeywell's on that list as well, cadence and kraft heinz all doing well. we're just learning that president biden will deliver remarks at 12 noon eastern time. these remarks will be about senator manchin and senator schumer's reconciliation deal. we also have this: 15 states have dropped below $4 a gallon for gas. will that trend continue? i'll ask gasbuddy's patrick dehaan after this. ♪ ♪ tried to hard -- so hard to give you what you need ♪♪

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stuart: we're in recession. it's basically stagflation, but the dow is up just a fraction. s&p is up just a fraction. nasdaq down not much. take a look at solar stocks, up big on news of democrats' spending deal which includes nearly $400 billion for climate provisions. there is, indeed, also a provision for $30 billion worth of subsidies for solar panel and wind turbines. that's why the solar stocks are all up so much. electric truckmaker rivian cutting 6% of work force. i thought that was going to be a problem for the stock. they're having a hard time raising money, right? lauren: well, and the ceo says global capital markets are extremely tight right now. so if you don't have anyone that wants to lend to you, you need to save any cash that you have.

stuart: right. lauren: how do you do that? you cut cost. so they're cutting about 6% of their 14,000 work force. they're also trying to make production targets, they're behind, and open another factory to make cheaper rivians. they want to do that in georgia. all this costs money. stuart: yeah. but they also will get the $7,500 tax credit for buying an electric vehicle. i know there are income restraints on that. lauren: and that's why they newsed that -- need that that georgia factory, so if you want access to that $7,500, you need cheaper are rivians on the market. stuart: stock is up nearly 3% as we speak. thanks very much. the price of a gallon of gas, regular, $4.27, that's the national average. that's down 61 scents in a mont. patrick dehaan joins us now. are we changing our habits because of $4 gas? >> well, we have been, stuart. really because of $5 gas.

we have seen a slight drop, 5-10 forth of -- 5-10% of what we'll call demand destruction because of those high prices. americans seem to be responding just a little bit to the fall in prices. you mentioned 16 states now under the $4 average. i'm sitting here waiting for new mexico which will be the 17th state any moment. but keep in mind, stuart, prices have fallen. but if it wasn't for 2022, they'd still be at record levels right now. stuart: you don't hi this is going to be -- we do have a down trend, obviously. 16 states are below $4 a gallon for gas, but you don't see that trend continuing, do you? you think that's going to -- the dow trend will slow down, that's what you're saying, i think. >> that's primarily what i'm worried about. oil prices have popped up a little bit recently, gasoline inventories last week plummeted, and that will likely put a floor under where we're going. i still don't know if we're going to get under $4. i think we could pop back up.

and if we see any major hurricanes, we still could go up as quickly as we go down. stuart: that is the fly in the ointment, isn't it? hurricane season and problems with the refineries. if you have a problem with a hurricane or refinery, probably gas prices start going back up again. is that accurate in. >> oh, absolutely, stuart, without a doubt. inventories remain extremely tight especially on diesel. diesel prices are down close to 50 cents from the peak, but those inventories would be the likely quickest to respond if there is any hurricane-related shutdown. gasoline prices also now close to 80 cents lower than they were at their peak, but still inventories globally and in the u.s. are extremely tight, and any disruption will be magnified by the fact that we're still in the summer driving season. stuart: all right, patrick dehaan, thanks for joining us. there is one gas station in utah which temporarily lowered their price to $2.38 per gallon. why such a specific -- lauren

lauren they don't say. i speculate it's about the price of gas when the president took office in utah. right now in utah it's about $4.90 to fill up, so this political advocacy group was covering the difference for this 4-hour time gap, and the cars lined up around the block. they said our message to washington is this: cheaper gasoline, people want cheaper gasoline. unleash energy independence, oh, and watch your spending. they proved it by selling what gas used to cost and all the people lining up. stuart: a nice stunt. lauren: it was a stunt. we'll see if it works. stuart: good politics. i don't know whether you know this story, this is interesting. the energy crunch is having quite an impact. i'm going to start with west london over there in britain. they're actually banning new housing projects in west london. is that because they haven't got electricity? lauren: they do not have capacity on the energy grid for more homes because homes now

require low carbon technology. the charger for your tesla many your garage, your devices that are all smart and hooked up to the grid. so there are three neighborhoods in west london that are actually 11% of all of london the's housing supply that might not be able to build because they won't be able to tap into the energy that's needed. everyone knows we need to upgrade the power grid, but you don't do it like that. it could take a decade. stuart: same thing happens over here, guaranteed. lauren: it could. stuart: coming up, could chewing gum do more than freshen your breath? a new study shows that gum could trap covid and reduce the spread. we'll talk to dr. marty makary about that. speaker pelosi under pressure as calls grow to ban congressional stock trading. guess what? her husband just made another big stock move. lauren has the report on that after this. ♪ ♪ if -- i like to wait, see how things turn the out ♪♪ if

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stuart: all right, we've got it, the president has just released a report on the negative gdp number. he does not mention the word

recession, he because not reference the 8.7% engrace contained in that report, he does not use the word stagflation. in his statement he says: even as we face historic global challenges, we're on the right past, and we will come true this transition stronger and more secure. he says my economic plan is focused on bringing inflation down without giving up all the economic gains we have made. okay. house democrats will introduce a bill to ban lawmakers from trading stocks. lauren, when does this arrive? lauren: the text could come as soon as next week. it would ban lawmakers, their spouses and senior staff. so it's broadening out, from trading stocks. they would have to choose from put your assets in a qualified blind trust or -- completely, okaying? >> a lot of pressure on house speaker nancy pelosi because of her husbands trades. let's give you the refresher. this was one month if before president biden's executive order forcing all federal vehicles to be electric.

he bought tesla stock. and we discussed this one, he bought microsoft two weeks before they got a government contract for their headsets. he's invested, as you see here, in a lot of silicon valley heavyweights, and most recently he bought then sold nvidia. i think both of those trades are fishy. he sold the stock just ahead of the house vote on the chips plus act that the senate passed that supports domestic semiconductor manufacturing. the president hopes to sign it any day now, right? before the august break. he took a loss of $341,000 doing that. that's nothing for him, but it's the optics. he were getting so bad for the pelosis that they had to do something even as nancy continues to say, well, les nothing to see here. >> -- during the course of your career, has your husband ever made a stock purchase -- >> no, absolutely not. lauren: paul pelosi.

stuart: so the deal is you put everything in a blind trust or you get rid of everything. those are your two options. lauren: but if you're paul pelosi and you work in the industry, do you have to quit your job? if a lawmaker's spouse works in the financial -- do they have to quit? stuart: that's not part of the bill, is it? lauren: no, but it leads to all these questions. stuart: yeah, it does. check market. we've taken a turn. we were up about 10 minutes ago, now we've moved lower across the board. dow's down 100. i don't know what caused the turn around, but it happened suddenly, just the last few minutes. we'll figure it out. still ahead, congressman dan crenshaw, bret baier, dr. marty makary and chi point lay executive chris brant -- chipotle. the 10:00 hour of "varney" is next. ♪ ♪

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♪♪ i'm going to wish i had a store morning ♪♪ stuart: storm warning, that's all about warning that a recession is coming. a recession is on us, no

question about it. i will call it stagflation. it is 10:00, welcome to stagflation america, straight to your money. in the last few minutes the dow turned south, down 130, nasdaq turning south, down 100 points, the 10 year treasury yield is all the way down to 2. 66%. that could be a flight to safety, could reflect the slowdown in the economy. price of oil this morning in mid 90s, $97 a barrel, bitcoin barely stable above the $20,000 mark, nearly 23,000. i call that stable bitcoin is this week, 10:00 on thursday morning, mortgage rates, what do we have? lauren: they fell from 5.5 to 5.3%, purchase demand continues to tumble as rates go up and they will continue to go up.

stuart: i would take 5.3% on a 30 year fixed. lauren: it is more than it was a year ago. >> i took out a 12. 5% mortgage rate and ashley webster, 14% in the 1980s. lauren: we are sweating at 5%. %. stuart: quit complaining. now this. it looked for a while like senator manchin would save us from the tax and spend policy but for whatever reason he has done a one hundred 80 and breathed new life into build back better only now it is called the inflation reduction act of 2,022. having gone rogue he has returned to democrat orthodoxy now he is okay with spending $370 billion on climate change and green energy, $450 billion

worth of tax increases on businesses. this will cut inflation and lower the deficit. how is spending hundreds of billions of dollars lower inflation? taking half $1 trillion out of businesses produce economic growth? tax and spend does not unleash the economy. it shackles it. subsidies don't bring prosperity, they bring dependence. what's going on? with four months to the elections democrats are buying votes. guess it is understandable when your party trails badly in the polls but hard to understand why joe manchin changed his mind, one small item might help explain it, the inflation reduction act of 2022 contains language that makes pipeline permitting easier and that would include the mountain valley pipeline which would take natural gas from west virginia to neighboring virginia. if that's part of the deal

manchin came cheaper. second hour of varney just getting started. stuart: jason chafe it is in new york. don't understand why joe manchin pulled this extraordinary 180? >>'s commitment against taxes this is a tax increase, clearly clearly. the irs provision does bother me, they suggest that enforcement will lead to hundreds of billions in additional revenue to the treasury, that never comes to fruition, smoke and mirrors, washington dc inside the beltway smoke and mirrors, don't think that's going to happen. the big question is where is christensen mode, she took the same type of pledged and they have to have her vote, will she

cave? nobody knows. all cameras on her because she could put a wrench in this deal. stuart: when this news came through that manchin had done the 180, it is news to me. >> if schumer didn't bring kristin sinema through all the discussions and talk i think they are thinking if every democrat in the country will lean on them. the reason stereotypes become stereotypes, democrats fund tax and spend and that is what manchin is reverting back to. stuart: 50 house republicans, 50 or 60 signed a letter calling for president biden to take a cognitive test, not going to happen, is it? >> it is telling. why not? every day we see the gaffes happening out there.

everybody knows this is happening and i think the ones in the white house are the ones to look to to figure out if this is true, the chief of staff, ron klain, susan rice, these are the people closest to the president and should be stepping forward and saying this is how he's really acting. stuart: i would like your insight into the nancy and paul pelosi frockcoat. >> nancy pelosi is mad at her husband, no way that bill, prohibition on training stocks comes to the floor less nancy pelosi is checked off at her husband and this is the right thing to do, should have happened a long time ago but the timing is not a coincidence, she is piston. stuart: trying not to use that word. you are staying with me for the hour. let's see what we've got now.

president biden met with 14 of hunter biden's business associates when he was vice president. surely that directly contradicts his former statement that he never talked to his kids about business. lauren: he met with mexican, ukrainian dealmakers, powerful people. we looked at hunter biden emails and in one of them hunter says i did everything you asked me to, but you in front of everybody you wanted to meet in my family and you are ghosting the. she wanted an energy deal with that executive. that is one example and many paint joe biden as the go-between between hunter and these rich powerful people and gop lawmakers want hunter's financial advisor to cement documents to what banks reported about suspicious activity so following the money trail.

the banks flagged 150 transactions that didn't smell right. >> what is fascinating is when he was vice president going on trips to mexico hunter biden was on the plane with jeff cooper, his business partner. why was he flying on air force 2 to meet people he was going to do a deal with, i don't know anything about this, are you kidding me? why is he on air force to? hunter biden's business partner. stuart: if republicans take control of the house in november we will hear more about this. >> we already are and we should. stuart: i want to know where that laptop is? who has got it? is it in police custody? the new york post got it? don't know who's got it. >> the fbi. blue one we are not going to get that. back to the markets, plenty of red ink this morning, dr barton

joins me. 8.7% inflation in this gdp report. is that peak inflation? >> we are getting really close. we talked for a couple weeks now about the big number of drops we've seen across raw materials and raw foodstuff like wheat down 40%, corn is down. gasoline is down as you covered and oil obviously along with that so we are seeing some things not just zooming to the moon and that's a good thing but i think the word, the ugly stagflation word you are throwing around is a little bit of a reality for at least a while. stuart: are you buying any big tech names at all? some of them have had a nice run in the last couple weeks? >> it's interesting, as we lead

up to earnings season we talked about what we liked and what we didn't. microsoft and google came through strongly. i loved what microsoft said about cloud business going forward. i think there's still money to be made in the biggest companies, if you are more conservative you can play microsoft right now buying these lowes and going higher, that you will have a chance if you are more of a gunslinger to go after amazon on big dips because they are going to have some surprising news maybe not today but over the next quarter or so they could do all kinds of things with their business to reveal more value if the powers that be want to unleash additional stock market upward oomph. there are still some plays in

the biggest companies in the world that continue to be, they are learning double-digit growth still. all the big four are earning double-digit year over year revenues and as long as that happens there's money to be made. stuart: i would like to do that, see you again later. lauren is looking at the movers, and stanley, black & decker. 11%. the expectation game and they went out and cut their forecasts for the year, tripled bad whammy and stockist offering as a result. stuart: wait a minute, we have the cruise line on the list again. >> all up nicely so their loss wasn't as bad as expected but here's the news, dropping their cover 19 testing for vaccinated passengers on shorter sailing starting next month. stuart: we get applause from jason.

>> america wants to get back on the ships. stuart: you are cruz guy? >> don't want to pack my bag, go port to port. i love it. don't miss a meal. come on, you don't get a body like this by missing a cruz. >> a lot of people recently cruised and the testing is obnoxious, and annoying and there is so much testing, then test positive and got to stay home for 5 days, it is a headache. stuart: done with royal caribbean, now we move on to et assy and they are a patent at half%. >> several brokerages increase their price target, they like the numbers they put out and there margin so that's the news on etsy. rollup the prompter, i miss the prompter. my fault. i put some stuff in there that confused everybody. stuart: this is another one for you.

that's what the prompter is telling me. congressional budget office predicting when our national debt will double. when will our national debt be double our gdp? lauren: by 2050 one, the debt is 98% of gdp. it's going to go to one hundred 85%, hence doubling over the next 3 decades or so. the upshot of this is important because what lawmakers do about it with reduced investments because it costs more money to borrow and companies are constrained. stuart: this is setting up the debt bomb crisis which i've been in america for 40 years and there's always a debt bomb down the road and it never actually arrives. >> we are spending $1 billion a day in interest on the national debt. that was when it was near 0. the interest rates, the other thing that is a major problem

is they are so upside down on states and pension plans, that is by the trillions of dollars the unfunded liabilities on their books. stuart: are we now shelling out one billion dollars a day in interest? >> one billion a day. we are about to overspend, surpass the spending but we want national defense to go towards servicing the national debt. stuart: as interest rates rise servicing the national debt is much more -- a situation. we have amazon prime day two weeks ago. is there another two day prime day coming up? >> haven't announced it but reports say october and it makes sense. everyone sitting on this inventory and consumers want to deal because we are soaked by inflation, you could see prime day 2 right before the holiday season. stuart: our travel chaos toy, the ceo of heathrow airport

sounding the alarm over ongoing travel nightmares. he says we could be in for another summer of cancellations and delays. anthony blinkenen says there's a release of wnba star britney greiner, we have details on the swap. migrants flooding across the country creating a backlog immigration cases. texas congressman dan crenshaw has an idea how to fix that and he joins me next.

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neil: reading all over the

place, down 160 on the dow, 111 on the nasdaq but huge gains yesterday saw minor selloff this morning, look at tell doc down 23%, this company was once a pandemic darling but goldman sachs cut their price target from 35% and the stock is down 23%, there's speculation this administration will offer a prisoner swap for the release of britney greiner. we would release the merchant of death in exchange for her along with another american. congressman dan crenshaw joins me now. as a former military man how do you feel about this exchange of prisoners? >> that's the first i've heard of it. there is obviously pros and cons, don't want to let someone go who was a mass murderer and

we want to get us citizens back in these are the deals you have to make, we will see the details as it unfolds. stuart: sorry to spring that on you, didn't realize you didn't know about it. i thought it was a good story. in the united states at the moment the very large number of illegal migrants and i think you've got some kind of plan to do something about that. what your plan? >> any time you look at the southern border you've got to look at a lot of factors and the solutions are multifaceted. i've talked about reforming the asylum process and the floors settlement and infrastructure, walls, security cameras, all of it but you have to deal with what is happening in immigration courts, 1.6 million court cases backlog, 10 times more ct. cases than even 10 years ago because of abuses in the asylum process.

we agree with democrats on one thing, they want to increase immigration numbers. we should increase immigration judge numbers but you have to follow that with ice prosecutor numbers, if you don't have the government represented in that courtroom what you could have is administered of closure which means the immigrant is forgotten about almost indefinitely and get back to the back of the line and never search for years if ever. that is a real problem. i'm introducing a bill that fixes that problem. it is very simple. dhs needs this and tackling problems that are often overlooked. stuart: given passage of your bill and hiring more prosecutors and judges this problem is going to be with us for decades because the problem is so large, so many people, you can't deal with it in a

speedy fashion period? >> if you begin to reform the asylum process you will at least stop the inflow and that has to be our first priority in the deal with estimates go up to 20 million people who are here undocumented. this is a part of dealing with that. stuart: thanks for joining us, sorry i sprung that story on you. next time i will give you plenty of warning what we are doing. the chief executive at london heathrow airport has a stark warning about travel disruptions. spell it out. >> chaos will last another 18 months and that means to the end of next year so another popular holiday season like this one and if you are flying out of heathrow there is that daily of 100 passengers a day so that will likely stand last another 18 months but he also

said something funny recently. the issues because they are having trouble staffing all the partners at the airport, too many people carry black suitcases it has taken time to identify which one is yours can we go out and we buy hot pink or aluminum suitcase that will fix the problem. stuart: don't people tie ribbons on them and big signs on from? >> they are not big enough or bright enough. stuart: jason doesn't want to come into this discussion. >> that is the lamest excuse ever and shows how the brits think of americans, can't figure out which suitcase. neil: stuart: some colleges and universities forcing faculty to sign diversity, equity and inclusion statements making data condition, don't get a

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>> the dow is down 209 points, nasdaq down 141, news of the day, we are in recession, we are in stagflation mode because we have 8.70% inflation, the market is turning south on that news. we have some movers, southwest airlines way down 9%. lauren: a lot of airlines down because of the deal with spirit and jetblue worried about cheap prices, spirit is the only airline at last check but southwest news, they reported higher costs and a slowdown in revenue after posting record earnings so looking forward things won't get much better for them. the other movers best buy, they also reported last night, they were downgraded two notches and took the price target from

10762, that is just ugly. they are dealing with inflation also. stuart: how about baxter international? >> healthcare company focusing on the disease, they cut their annual forecast, blame the usual culprits including diesel fuel prices. how does that affect the healthcare company? because they have to move their products and their drugs and it affects everybody, the cost of energy is a tax hike for businesses and consumers across the country. stuart: double from what it used to be stop laughing. riding lawnmower, you are comparing that to a john deere tractor? let's get serious. stuart: here we go. some colleges and universities are promoting diversity, equity, and inclusion, some forcing faculty to sign statements on diversity and

inclusion in order to get tenure aura promotion. bill bennett joins us now. to me this sounds like political intimidation. >> it is political intimidation and another chapter in the decline and corruption of american universities the diversity, equity, and inclusion is not what it is about. it is about satisfying the mob and being more woke on university campuses. the notion that faculty would have to sign a statement with 20 or 30 years ago been something done in the soviet union but here we go. what i'm hoping for is parents will look at higher education the same way they took a look at secondary education and middle school education and say we want other options. it costs a lot of money to send

kids to college, people may examine a better use of that money and this is something they have done to themselves. stuart: on that note, on tuesday on this program the founder of turning point usa, charlie kirk, said college is a scam, he thinks students jump straight into a business, form their own business, don't need to go to college. what do you say to that? >> that is right. i did a book called is college worth it and co-authored it, if you take roi, return on investment it doesn't work very well for most colleges despite what it says in the catalog it is fiction most colleges don't payoff. what about not the financial side but the side of introspection, reflection, the marketplace of ideas that has been lost. they are talking diversity, equity and inclusion and at

george washington university, as a result clarence thomas will no longer teach the seminar at the law school. she took himself out. the university said he was welcome but this was mob rule and that is what diversity, equity and inclusion means. is it not crazy if you're a law student not to want to listen to a supreme court justice particularly with personal history of clarence thomas, just crazy. time to look elsewhere. stuart: clarence thomas was born dirt poor. he had nothing, nothing at all, educated himself and now he can't teach at george washington university, what a disgrace, you are a former education secretary, if you are education secretary today what would you do about the demise of public education, and colleges? what would you do? >> i would call for the same things i was calling for back then, greater school choice and

greater accountability and we are getting school choice, homeschooling is exploding since covid, people looked over their kids shoulder, saw what was going on in schools and people said we want other choices so that parents have a greater say in what goes on in look at the price tag of colleges and universities and say i wonder if i gave you this money as an investment may be it would be better use and you could do better and be all in favor of that and that was than and more so now. blue when i did that with my children, offered them money instead of going to college, none of them took it, they all went to college and they took the money afterwards but that is another story. you are all right. you are, good stuff. see you again soon. >> your daughter turned out beautifully. stuart: you do know my daughter. let's get serious in another way. florida's parental rights and education bill, known as don't

say gay is now facing a lawsuit. who is suing? >> this time from a florida family with three children and their oldest identifies as non-binary, their family says their constitutional rights to free speech and protection are being violated because the law in florida bands the teaching of sex and gender in kindergarten through third grade but they say our younger children aren't going to be able to talk about their older sibling because the teacher could get in trouble. stuart: what do you say to that? >> everything you teach your kids doesn't have to happen in the school. a lot of this bears a response. of the parent, it is their response ability, not the state of florida. stuart: gender preference should not be discussed by teachers. >> shouldn't be taught, but i don't think anything would happen if they spoke about their non-binary older sibling in school, nothing would happen to them. they can talk about it, just

don't want the teacher to explain it perhaps or instruct it. stuart: my head is exploding with these comp located ideas i have to deal with. what else have we got? inflation hitting essential back-to-school items. lauren: i reebok my daughter going to school for school supplies and cost me $63. you are facing your eyebrows. blue encanto number what it was. lauren: you have to find a certain plastic folder, i never know how much i spend. i had the pta do it for this year and it includes year and that includes donations, $63, is that a lot of money. stuart: how much is it up? lauren: we don't have exact numbers, the national retail federation will look how much the average family spends compared to last year.

whatever the number is, half of adults are concerned about affording the supplies for their kids. stuart: 50% of adults are concerned about affording school supplies. is anybody going to say i am not concerned? lauren: they cut back another areas. stuart: what say you? >> how can they afford the labor. running out of money because they can't run for gas the way they are i would love to know how school districts are dealing with rising in summer recess. stuart: look at this.

gum as in chewing gum, the key to fighting covid? medical chewing gum could reduce the transmission of the covid virus. doctor marty makary will speak to that. should nancy pelosi change course about her trip to taiwan? bret baer is next. ♪♪ stand by me ♪♪ stand by me ♪♪ ♪♪

neil: stuart: we are showing a big tech. microsoft is the only winner among big tech stocks up 16 bucks, another two today.

looking at alpha better and apple, apple and amazon down at the moment, they report after the bell, an important report could move the market depending on what they report. president biden did hold the conversation with chinese leader xi jinping. do we know what the call was about? >> they were going to speak about climate change. charged issues, to inject more stability and intention in the relationship between the countries, it was intended to stabilize relationships, nancy pelosi's visit, and the us deepening support for taiwan, but some people say nancy pelosi needs to go.

>> it sends the message that the chinese government, not the american government gets to decide the national security posture in the south china sea and that would be disastrous. >> this comes as biden is considering relaxing donald trump's tariffs on imports from china to reduce consumer prices but rolling back would have minimal affect reducing inflation by 12:45% because chinese imports account for 2% of goods included on the cpi. and chinese intellectual property theft, and taken seriously when chinese intellectual fat cost the american family $225 billion, and $600 billion a year according to the fbi.

climate change is going to be addressed and president biden would push president xi against the war with ukraine as we learn about that. stuart: thanks very much. a top chinese official warning there will be firm and resolute measures in response to speaker pelosi's trip to taiwan if she does visit taiwan. bret baer joins us of this morning. i would say the speaker has to go now because if she didn't go, china is calling the shots. >> a way to confirm that as of yet. the congressional delegation, to asia and there wouldn't be

this fanfare about she is going and the fact that it got out there, the back and forth, if she doesn't go it is a win for the chinese, makes the us look weekend if she does go it stirs up the pot, taiwan gets anxious about everything. i think she will go but amazing they got to this point. stuart: i want to ask about senator joe manchin, the senator told you, a big no, got that out of it. he is on board with big spending on green energy and the rest of it. why do you think he caved. >> haven't talk to senator manchin, don't know how the evolution came to be. i want to go through with a fine toothed comb, there is a

pipeline in west virginia. an agreement to vote on oil permitting, reform changes, deficit reduction, it raises the corporate minimum tax to 15%. takes the depreciation possibility, investing in buildings and things and it is good for the economy that does not happen. if there's corporate minimum tax it is 15%. there will be a little pushback, a lot of pushback from business community and don't know how kristin sinema will look from arizona. stuart: she was surprised when she heard news of this deal, the first she heard of it so how she reacts in the long-term i don't know.

i want to leave time for golf. always get that smile on your face. did you know bubba watson is reportedly the latest star to jump ship for a reported $50 million. >> some of these guys, the amount of money on the table, it is said there is this pulling apart but live has added, donald trump will tee it up today, with dustin johnson, bryson shambaugh, getting creek mass of pro-plaps that are leaving, some not at the end of their career, some at the beginning and that's the concern for the pga. blue when did you ever play with the president? >> i have. it's always interesting, he's the best president golfer we had. is a good putter, very interesting to listen to.

>> you can't leave it at that. >> the stories. stuart: give me a story. please. >> no i can't. stuart: don't say i didn't try. we will be watching you tonight at 6:00 pm eastern on special report, appreciate it. still had, chipotle will raise prices another 4%, will people keep paying for a burrito. i asked the chief marketing officer who joins me in the next hour. the annual us congressional baseball game is tonight. activists trying to shut it down. we will report from the national spark after this. ♪♪

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stuart: we heard bret baer talk about golfing with trump. he wouldn't tell us any stories. but jason has played golf with trump and will tell stories. >> it was really fun.

i hit my drive, the balls couldn't have been 6 inches apart, he looks down to figure which dollars which, sees line and kicks it to the side and went ahead. he is a very good putter. he hits every single fairway. a lot of fun to golf with. never talks politics the whole time just tell stories about golf, passed away but the prime minister, prime minister abe, he was fun. stuart: a good golfing partner. the annual congressional baseball game in washington dc, climate activists want to shut it down. chad program at the national spark ahead of the game. why are they taking this event to protest? >> reporter: it is high profile. that's the main reason.

we are here on capitol hill a couple blocks from the us capital at the hampton inn. i brought my first baseman's glove. don't know if somebody could jack the ball all the way up here but brought my gloves just in case, they play the game for charity, expect what he thousand fans here tonight, they will raise $2 million to the boys and girls club of washington dc, democrats lost the game last year to republicans but have the advantage in the series. jimmy panetta, the co-mvp last year, expecting the democrats to win. >> of course the democrats but we have a lot of work to do. >> what happens in november? >> there's a lot more at play when it comes to that. the country understands that.

>> reporter: roger williams, republican congressman, the farmhand, he says the national pastime is a healing salve. >> president bush, the first pitch we have ever seen brought us out of 9/11. and we hope to bring everybody back at it. we need to get america moving. >> you mentioned the climate protesters. security will be tight, tighter than you would usually see at a baseball game in the major leagues, the security of members, them shooting of steve scalise, roger williams says let them play. >> that is their problem. $2 million for charity.

why would anybody be for that and green grass for crying out loud. >> reporter: sam rayburn, the speaker of the house canceled the game in 1958, too many members of congress, the players, were getting injured. stuart: got it. i want to thank jason chaffetz for submitting himself to an hour of punishment. >> integrate program and honored to be on. stuart: the chief marketing officer of chipotle, brad blakeman and doctor marty makary. and randi weingarten has been elected president of the american federation of teachers, running the union for 13 years and it has been an utter disaster, that is my opinion and it is "my take" next. a mountain? a tree weathering a storm? (thunder)

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believes in them raising rates is the antidote to this inflation problem. that's the real truth no one wants to talk about. >> that ugly word you are throwing around, the reality for a while. ♪♪ stuart: i don't know that outside. lauren: hang yourself on this one. it is kalvin harris, am i right? you are younger than me. >> i like 70s rock. stuart: come on, everybody, let's get serious. i would rather have the beatles than the stones. that was up 17, s&p is up four,

nasdaq down 23 points, the 10 year treasury yield all the way down earlier. where is it now. 2.67%, a sharp drop in yield, the money pouring in, lowering the yield. is that a flight to safety? don't know. is it a sign of recession coming? i don't know but that is a very low yield, big tech all over the place, huge gains yesterday, mostly lower this morning. only winner is microsoft which is upper percentage. oil is at $97 a barrel and gas keeps edging lower. now this. for the eighth time, randi weingarten has been elected president of the american federation of teachers, that union has 1.7 million members and run the union for 13 years.

it has been a disaster. randi weingarten has politicized america's public education system, tried to turn youngsters into political activists. she is woke and wants us all to be woke too. she's okay with gender preference selection for elementary school children, pushes the device of critical race theory and it was during the pandemic the worst damage was done. it seemed the union didn't want the kids in school, there were roadblocks going back to class even though remote learning was a dismal failure. minority kids in big cities, two or three years behind. parents were in revolt taking children out of public schools and record numbers. 1 million youngsters are homeschooled and randi weingarten doing her best to suppress charter schools and bachelor systems. what a shame that so many dedicated teachers represented

by a union the but public schools into crisis. third hour of varney starts right now. the big financial news this morning was we are in a recession whether the white house defines it that way or not. we have an inflation problem 8.7%, revealed in today's gdp report, the market is not responding to the numbers, the dow is up, the s&p is up, the nasdaq is down a couple points. ryan payne, market watcher of the day is with me now. i defined this, do your own drum roll. i defined this as stagflation. we are in recession and got inflation. >> it is all about wages.

we are in the stagflation area because inflation is high, we saw the 10 year treasury down under 2.7%. inflation is coming down but meanwhile wages stay high, baby boomers are coming back to the workforce because we have so many jobs to fill. that's not going away anytime soon. we when you are not buying doom and gloom. >> not buying it at all. stuart: what does that mean for the stock market? >> 100%. we are at the bottom at this point. the bottom is in, markets close to 10% since last month. everything we've been talking about a negative, the market is aware of that, the market priced in, 70% coming to beat earnings expectations.

market melt up, the news was good. the biggest risk is positive news. stuart: got to tell me about the federal reserve, 8.7%, and taking their foot off the break. they are going to do that or pivot? >> i think that is what he told you yesterday, the undertone of that is inflation is coming down, we will get more dovish. they are flexible in what they do with monetary policy. stuart: what are you buying? >> i love financials look great, energy sector for a long time, peak demand not for another decade away, they are increasing this year, and

coca-cola looks great, the old-school names. stuart: i will listen and maybe i will buy it too, good stuff. next case, brad blakeman, we welcome him back, good conservative guy that he is. the white house put out a statement about what i call the recession without mentioning the word recession. i'm calling it stagflation because we got inflation and recession at the same time. where do you stand on this? >> it is a godsend they told us we are in a recession because how else would we have known it? just go to the pump. and and 2 straight quarters of negative gdp is the standard by which you judge whether the countries going into recession and they are redefining it because it doesn't fit what

everybody knows is happening. it's unbelievable, they can't get away from it and can't do anything about it and that is what is so fraught with danger with the american people, our government doesn't seem to be responsive, and and more taxing and spending. stuart: re-surprised that manchin had done a 180, complete flip from one side to the other? i'm sure you were surprised but to me, it redefines the democrat party as tax and spend, that's what they are taking into the next election in november. i don't think that works, what do you think? >> can't understand why joe manchin would do it. you've been against taxing and spending, held the line and now you cave on the eve of midterm

election, look at the approval ratings of joe biden, the worst of any president in history. why don't you look at the wrong track right track paul where 80% of the american people think we are on the wrong track and spending over 10 years on things we don't need and don't want how is that going to help the american people as they go to the gas pump or they buy milk or eggs, we need help now for the american people, we don't need to be spending and taxing and giving something to their base to stand on the doesn't help the majority of the country. stuart: what we need from the republicans is a growth plan, isn't that what we need? we don't want to spend a lot of money, don't want to keep taxing everybody and we got stagflation, we want to grow out of it. will republicans come up with a growth plan before november and publish it and say what they are going to do? >> 100%. we need to go back to newt

gingrich's 10 point plan for america. a new contract for america, it has to be positive and forward thinking and help americans today. this is where republicans can set themselves apart from democrats, what will republicans do if we are able to gain the house and senate back? i agree with you 100% we need a plan, we needed published and we need a consensus of republicans to buy into that plan. stuart: brad blakeman, long time no see but we hope to see you again soon. warren is with us, some movers, wink stop, 28%. stuart: a chicken restaurants, chicken prices coming down big time. declined 19% in the quarter. they will not increase prices like every other restaurant is increasing prices.

and finally, the menu price. stuart: the news is chicken prices for that chain are coming down. that is news to me and fits your hypothesis. uncovered something here today. ali baba moving big time. lauren: the wall street journal is reporting jack ma plans to give up control of the financial arm of ali baba and subjected to sweeping restructuring by beijing and the ipo obviously derailed, that gives up the control and put the ideal back on track. stuart: community health. lauren: hospital operator. it is down 51%. market was halved.

you never want to surprise investors and blame high cost of labor. people are not getting as many procedures. that's an ugly report card an ugly reaction. stuart: 36%, a real knockdown. president biden wrapped up his call with china's xi jinping. we don't have a full readout but the call lasted 2 hours and 20 minutes. as soon as we find out what was said we will pass on to you. chipotle is testing a robot that can fry their famous tortilla chips. are they rely on technology to help with the labor shortage? i will ask their chief marketing officer who will join us shortly. some fed up former republicans and democrats formed 1/3 political party, former presidential candidate andrew yang says they will not fail.

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tourists are coming back to america but not spending so much. lauren: travel spiked 93% since june 12th, the administration lifted the covid testing requirements. they are not saying as much because they look at receipts coming in. they are predicting the numbers to travel back but not going to return to the spending levels for another three years. a lot of catch up to happen. stuart: and the strong dollar. if you are european coming over here you have to spend very expensive dollars, everything is much more expensive. lauren: i remember what it was like to go to europe, you can't buy these and the conflict

doubled, and people think i'm a tourist. you open your mouth, go to a restaurant, and they think you're an englishman and don't tip so they put you next to the lavatory. there is 1/3 political party. lauren: it is called forward, cochaired by andrew yang and christine todd whitman, former governor of new jersey, launching it, the centrist party want to move forward, stop bickering and get things done, want to be on the ballot in 15 states so they can potentially be on the president about. stuart: are they in favor of tax increases or tax cuts? lauren: we will find out. i would imagine tax cuts but i don't know that. stuart: the governor of florida

is ron desantis taking a swipe at woke companies. lauren: he is hitting efg investing and companies like disney and paypal who often cut off go fund me pages if they don't like the cause. he's trying -- let's play it. >> the thing about the politicization in the economy in this way, it benefits the largest, most powerful corporations. this is crushing the little guy. for every master of the universe prattling on about no emissions i don't see many of them giving up their private jets. lauren: he's trying to push a law in florida that prevents state pension funds from using political factors to make their investment decisions, he doesn't want politics in finance. stuart: he is running for the

presidency, staking out national issues. lauren: used to be you didn't talk about politics and this is why you have companies feeling they need to take a stand and maybe they don't. stuart: a new report highlights the woke guidelines medical students are being taught in medical schools, the diversity, equity and inclusion competencies include fluent, being fluent in intersection hourly, having knowledge of intersection hourly of a patient's multiple identities and knowing that race is a social construct that is a cause of health inequities. doctor marty makary joins us now. i call this political education. >> when medical students come to school they want to learn anatomy and physiology and how

to take care of patients, insulin management and to sew up wounds. we are acutely aware of the socioeconomic issues patients to bring when they come to us but this disproportionate enthusiasm to change the vocabulary in medicine is a blind to many major in equity issues. how about vanderbilt and children's hospital of pennsylvania accept medicaid instead of changing the vocabulary. stuart: surely race or should you react to a patient according to their race? should you do that? >> we should treat everybody equally, that is what i believe. certain conditions are more prevalent in certain races and that has been in our textbooks for decades. stuart: stuart: is this a powerful movement in medical schools? >> i haven't heard of it.

i saw this report and rewriting our entire lexicon and changing the curriculum with this vigor and enthusiasm leadership has. stuart: we have a report. covid hospitalizations, rates nearly doubled, is a rough fall. >> the winters not as bad as we braced for but we are dealing with some unknown, ba 5 is increasing, 35,000 people in the united states in a hospital with ba 5 can we don't have a compass, somewhat incidental covid ba 5 infection, half of covid hospitalizations there for covid from one report, the staffer calling out sick, if

you had omicron this year you got an 80% level of protection against the current ba 5 variant. stuart: i want to get to this story about another study, medical chewing gum could reduce transmission of the covid virus. does it work and how it works. >> we are not sure how but two mechanisms, there's a protein in this plant-based chewing gum that may trap the virus and increasing their saliva production klinzing the upper respiratory tract. there may be something there with other medical conditions and high-risk, i would stick with paxlovid. stuart: see you again soon.

just because you are famous doesn't mean you are rich. and hbo times so that she barely makes money to survive. will explain why she blames streaming for her shrinking paychecks. tripoli will hike prices 4% next month, the second price hike this year. customers don't seem to mind. chris brent joins me next. ♪♪ about two years ago i realized that jade was overweight. i wish i would have introduced the fresh food a lot sooner. after farmer's dog she's a much healthier weight. she's a lot more active. and she's able to join us on our adventures. get started at longlivedogs.com hi, i'm eileen. i live in vancouver, washington

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♪♪ stuart: another singer or band i have not heard of. that is fire island, new york, 79 degrees. the nasdaq is up 50 points and s&p up 23, this is on top, and

and and we have new york's famous bacon egg and cheese sandwich. how much they cost? >> one bodega used to charge 250, up 80% to $4.50. and inexpensive breakfast, bacon, egg and cheese, what a new yorker does on saturday morning. stuart: i eat those things. i have eaten them in my time. they will raise their prices 4% next month. chris brent is chief marketing officer.

you believe you got pricing power, people will keep paying for your product, you've got pricing power, you that. >> rapid price increases whether it is food or paper, we would rather not take what we have to and the price increases, very resilient. and the next price increase, great value and compare ourselves to other people and given the quality of the food that we give you, would rather not do it but if we do -- stuart: you are investing in a company that makes need protein alternatives using mushroom roots.

it is a market for that? >> we know plant-based alternatives are rising in popularity. this company, we like their product and think it is good. we don't have plans to roll that out but what they are doing is interesting and we have a fund investing in companies, to help us down the road, to show an automated robot and spend time with folks at the restaurant and would like to automate and make the more effective and making chips like we do in our restaurants. and bring some automation to them on that task for culinary things.

stuart: you mention a plant-based alternative, and a product in your stores. what is the demand like? what proportion of your products which have fake meat in them are being sold? >> chicken and steak are the dominant ones. ready to rollout. stuart: is it 5%? what is the share? >> we don't call it fake meat, organic soy-based product, or any given day. stuart: that is more than i thought. i don't see people buying that product.

can you tell me what the price of a burrito. >> the chicken burrito, the most popular things, $9, it will be more or less a place that is less expensive and right around $9. stuart: what was it before the pandemic? >> we were amid $8. stuart: it has not gone up much. >> the next price increase is 12%, 4%, 8 or $9. stuart: not bad. thanks for being with us, see you again soon.

and actress on hbo's hit show euphoria says she barely makes enough money to survive. sounds dramatic. don't know how much she makes at euphoria. lauren: $350,000 has been reported, not a lot of money. stuart: why can't she makes legals meet? lauren: she is a solid actor, has a hit role but white lotus, very popular shows, just bought a house for instance, she has endorsement deals, if i wanted to take a 6-month break, i don't have income to cover that, they don't pay actors like they used to and with streamers you no longer get residuals, i have to pay my publicist every month. if i just acted i wouldn't be able to afford my life in la. cry me a river, you are 24

years old and you are a star on two hit shows but does she have a point? she gets paid $350,000. . stuart: she lives in california. stuart: and lives in california? she complained about the taxes. >> that something she did not complain about. 5% to her agents, 3% to her business manager. and can't take 6 months. stuart: why not say had to pay 50% for to the government. thanks very much. negotiations are underway. our government proposed a prisoner swap. the first half of the year saw 75 rocket launches around the world which happens to numbers like that since the space race.

the space economy is exploding and we will break down the numbers for you. ♪♪

stuart: astronaut buzz aldrin auctioned off some of his space memorabilia that he wore on apollo 11. a big package of stuff. >> the most extensive item was that white teflon coat that he wore and that's a record for any space alone artifact. there is this water dispenser that could put out fires but use it to rehydrate freeze-dried food and that sold for $320,000. people want to own a piece of

history. stuart: the space industry is in real boom mode at the world, the number of rocket launches is astronomical. got some numbers? >> 1000 spacecraft launches putting it in perspective. this is from last year, $469 billion. that's a record. more civilians going into space, the industry needs to build infrastructure and make investments to get them there. he grows to $630 billion by 26. stuart: still on space. i heard the russians were going to exit the international space station. now i hear they are not exiting it, they are going to do something. lauren: they want to stay in the partnership with the us with the international space station until they build their own. they were scheduled to leave but now they wait until they have their own completed report. some say that's not going to

happen. stuart: they will build their own space station. lauren: so will the chinese. stuart: the biden administration suffered, offered a substantial proposal to russia for the release of wnba star brittany griner and paul whalen. do we know the terms of the deal? >> we are getting some details of that possible deal and first reaction from russia. washington is looking to free her. on trial facing 10 years in prison for drug charges and whalen now or so -- a security executive for alleged espionage. the biden administration could give up russian victor bout, the soviet military officer

served 20 years in us jail convicted and sentenced in 2012 for illegal weapons sales, contracts from the terror group, conspiring to kill americans in connection with the colombia guerrillas. the merchant of death has had reported dealings with a range of nasty folks from the caliban and al qaeda to militias, in asia, south america, the kgb successor organization and some people close to russian president putin. no wonder russia wants him back, russian officials confirmed today what secretary blinken said the talks are ongoing but won't confirm how close the us and russia are to a deal even if there was a meeting with russian foreign secretary lavrov. there is a recent precedent, former american marine trevor

reed was released in april for a russian drug runner, what many people talked to, a very bad thing to give up. stuart: thank you very much. we give you a sense of a market by showing all 30 dow stocks. a lot of buying going on and plenty of green on the right-hand side of the screen. 79 wildfires burning across the great country, the heatwave could make things worse, the wildfire report after this. ♪♪ you did! pods handles the driving. pack at your pace. store your things until you're ready.

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stuart: we really need a market check because it is up all over again. the dow is up 200 points, nasdaq still up 57 points. look at the 10 year treasury yield. all the way down to 2.68%.

that's helping the nasdaq in particular. a very low yield, way below the yield on the 2-year. that a recession indicator and we have a recession. price of gold going nowhere. it is up 2%, $34, $17.72. is bitcoin rallying? it is up $23,700 a coin. oil $98 a barrel going up a little bit of a natural gas $8.42 per million british thermal units down today, the average price is down to $4.27. in california you still pay $5.66. dow winners by honeywell international, 3%, nike, walmart, cisco, microsoft on the upside, dow winners, honeywell, nike, cisco, microsoft, change the screen so

i can read it. ets dagen: energy companies, nasdaq composite, big winners do we have any big tech? no, we don't. a line technology, honeywell, and industrial conglomerate rather than a technology comedy, the dow is up 229. 6 million acres, the summer heatwave could lead to even more fires. where are fires concentrated? lauren: the answer is alaska. wildfires burning and 50 in alaska. we are in the middle of the severe heat wave. it could park even more fires. we are seeing flash floods in kentucky, knocking out power,

washing away homes, the governor says they expect some people have died in these flash floods. weather is dangerous. stuart: fox weather has a new documentary coming out tonight called ruin and resurrection, the furies of hurricane maria. here's a preview. >> across puerto rico -- >> the real struggle that puerto ricans face on a daily basis. >> the fear that we've been abandoned. >> it will not be pretty but it will be the truth. >> should this problem be happening? >> it shouldn't. stuart: nicole valdes joins me now. tell me more.

>> reporter: quite the emotional story as we met several puerto ricans who are still struggling to recover from the hurricane even though it has been nearly five years since hurricane maria impacted the island, it made landfall as a category 4 storm but looking at the damage, $90 billion in damage done to the island of puerto rico alone. 1/3 costly just under hurricane harvey and hurricane katrina and we all remember the devastation that came with those storms. truly it has been such a challenging recovery for puerto rico not only in the physical side of the damage, lives lost in the storm and the story takes a deeper dive into what problems facing those on the island today and why recovery has been delayed. stuart: i don't think when the hurricane hit a lot of people left the island especially in

the aftermath because of the devastation but not all gone back. >> the island of puerto rico's population dropped and that plays a big role, hurricane maria left many with homes beyond repair, some they could not afford to get their homes back the way they were. a tough discussion for many people, the example and whenever you talk about hurricane maria you bring back that fear and puerto ricans know that won't be the last major hurricane they deal with. many are focusing their energy and efforts on what do we need to do to prepare for the next one? stuart: the electric grid been restored fully? >> it has been restored since hurricane maria. it was down an average of 11 months after the hurricane but it has gone down several times since then. you know the explosion that happened in april and there are

many scenarios that caused it to go down which is outdated and causing problems. stuart: fox weather will run this today. it is running now if i want to watch it. >> tonight at 10:00 eastern on fox weather, there are several ways to control on youtube tv, but we encourage you to download the fox weather apps, a highly useful tool if we see more devastation in the weather across the country. stuart: thanks for being here. 11:55, time for the trivia question, another good one. how many english workers doesn't american on average know by the time they are 20? 35,000, 42,000. the answer after this.

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stuart: how many english words does an american on average know by the time they are 20? what do you got there, lauren? >> i think 42,000. i'm going to be optimistic on the intelligence of our young people. stuart: that seems like a very high number. 42,000 words by the time you're 20 one? i would bo lower than that i would go to 21,000.

>> that's awful. stuart: i'm sorry. >> are you right? stuart: what is the answer? you were right. >> i use big words to my kids. stuart: send in "friday feedback" comments and critiques. send in the fan friday videos, say where you're from, watching "varney & company." do that hey you're on tv. neil it is yours. neil: i love that line we want it all. remember the queen song, we want it all? stuart: yes i do. neil: i thought i would share that. thank you very much, stuart. we're officially in a recession whether you buy the two negative quarter in a row thing but indeed we are. if you think the markets are panicking think again. celebrating the notion, maybe the plusside that you limit upside in interest rates. you take what you can get. edward lawrence at the white house now. how the administration is playing all of this, hey