>> that's awful. stuart: i'm sorry. >> are you right? stuart: what is the answer? you were right. >> i use big words to my kids. stuart: send in "friday feedback" comments and critiques. send in the fan friday videos, say where you're from, watching "varney & company." do that hey you're on tv. neil it is yours. neil: i love that line we want it all. remember the queen song, we want it all? stuart: yes i do. neil: i thought i would share that. thank you very much, stuart. we're officially in a recession whether you buy the two negative quarter in a row thing but indeed we are. if you think the markets are panicking think again. celebrating the notion, maybe the plusside that you limit upside in interest rates. you take what you can get. edward lawrence at the white house now. how the administration is playing all of this, hey,

edward. reporter: neil, you're exactly right listening to what the fed chairman said looking in september. here in the administration side of it, the white house president set to speak this hour about the inflation reduction act, that revamped "build back better" act. no doubt he will get questions about the gdp number. you may remember the first quarter gdp came in negative 1.6%. the second quarter first estimate was negative, negative .9%. that second quarter number will be revised. you remember the first quarter number was revised down when the final number was locked in. no doubt the american people feel recession in the gas pump, grocery store, making hard choices money they make won't go far enough. republicans pinning recession on president joe biden's policies. >> american people know when they get their pay stubs, they're making less in real

wages. and every day the american people understand the simple truth. we cannot afford democrats failed policies. we are certainly paying for them. reporter: in a statement the president tried to deflect the blame for the slow growth down to the federal reserve saying that as they are making their moves they expected a slowdown. now in the statement it defends more spending saying we are on the right path and we will come through this transition stronger and more secure. as white house economic advisors make the rounds spinning the administration's message. >> when you're adding 1.2 million jobs in a quarter, over 2 million jobs in the first half of the year it is simply inconsistent with a recessionary call. reporter: if you go back to the last two times we had two quarters of negative growth, that was during the beginning of the pandemic. that was the last one. the one before that was the great recession. back to you. neil: i remember covering that, indeed. i go all the way back to the

depression, edward. that is another story for another time. edward lawrence at white house. connell mcshane following all of this. markets are so much not so much on the recession talk, for the most part, connell, earnings are not nearly as bad as they would be, something like that? >> probably. maybe the fed won't go as far as they would be as well is part of it. earnings, looking over the last 24 hours they have been telling us you can certainly make the recession argument, some companies, a lot raising prices. some are reporting lower sales, you see consumers cutting back but you have others we'll get to in a second sailing right along. jump in best buy which is not sailing right along by any means this is example of consumers feeling inflation, forecasting larger than anticipated decline in annual sales. customers are spending less on computers and tvs, things like that, which are obviously discretionary items how you look at it. the stock in today's market is up.

market sentiment is up almost over 3%. example on struggling side is southwest airlines. it says its costs will keep going up, revenue is going to slow down. it has been able to hedge higher fuel costs. if you follow southwest it has been able to do that very, very well. its other expenses are up as much as 15% since last year. that stock is feeling it, down 7%. best by un$38 per share, or southwest i should say. another one to watch on the consumer side, currying dr. pepper. this one is up by 2.25% t raised forecast, a better example in many ways of a company that tells we're not feeling consumer downtrend. in fact just the opposite is mastercard. this earnings report was really interesting, it beat the street with earnings. seeing a pickup in travel, especially around the world, outside of the united states, kind of offsetting impact maybe of higher costs and other parts

of its business. when they eased up the travel restrictions in, for international travel, testing requirements and what have you for covid, these credit card companies, they can charge more for overseas transactions. people start traveling more overseas. that is good news for mastercard. stock is little higher up a little more than 1%. bottom line, neil. we see the recession argument. make them in a lot of earnings reports we have. inflation impact. best buy is example of that. we also see the other side of it, what you hear with a company like mastercard reflecting this consumer in a relatively strong labor market still out there traveling that is still out there spending. so it is not as clear-cut from these earnings reports. you see both sides of it. neil. neil: indeed you do, thank you very much, connell mcshane. before i go to my brilliant market analysts. i'm only one in the world interested in this. go out get a little lunch and come back here. we hear a lot about the inverted

yield curve. i was talking to charlie brady, senior editor that narrowed a little bit. one of the more weird things is happening with overnight money, overnight funds rate which federal reserve took up to 2 1/2%. which is darn close what you're getting for a 10-year treasury security. so think about that. you're getting about as much for your money, 2 1/2%, as i say, for overnight money, the federal funds attached to that, rate federal reserve controls, and a then year government bond at around little bit north of 2.6%. i don't know, that is just weird. i don't think i have ever seen that. i'm seeing it right now. as are you. what to make of that with larry glazer, mayflower advisors. luke lloyd, chief wealth investment strategist. they call that a flattening yield curve, gentleman. we can get into details whether that that is good or bad for the

economy. what do you think it is telegraphing, luke? what do you think? >> i think it is telegraphing things are a lot worse off than people realize. market rally is a trap for the future. i think the market is rallying of possibly lower interest rates because this recessionary print. things are really bad. i don't think inflation will come down just because of a recession or come down a lot. if we still have five or 6% inflation, that is not good for the long term. i'm less worried about's negative gdp print, worried how many more quarters of negative gdp growth over the next year. you need to be forward thinking and both the federal reserve and federal government are not being forward thinking. to shoot straight with you, neil, i'm not confident that the people in charge of monetary, fiscal policy frankly know what they're doing. frankly the white house changing definition of a recession was smoke and mirrors, knowing a recession print, tells me

they're not representing people, they're representing themselves. talk about forward thinking. did you see the inflation reduction act that congress is passing raising taxes on all corporations. next shoe to fall is rising unemployment rates. what do you think of companies already hurting get their margins compressed? they will lay off more people. these tax heights don't hurt corporations. they don't help inflation much, they hurt the middle class. it will help inflation but not targeting the right people. neil: we can talk, so glad you mentioned that, luke, as he mentioned this, this climate bill, whatever you want to call it if at first you don't succeed i guess you can keep trying it, but a lot of spending got us into the pickle in the first place. this climate measure could be that on steroid and the tax hikes in them, not just the very rich that will be paying them. when you include depreciation allowance changes, offset of getting rid of a lot of writeoffs and deductions, that is the equivalent of raising

taxes not only on businesses but individuals, far from the just the super wealthy. i'm wondering that is not a good one-two combination. what do you make of that? >> of course the question of the day, are we in recession. that is what everybody is asking me. they see inverted yield curve which is recessionary. negative gdp print which is recessionary. consumer sentiment diving. all those indicators suggest recession. you make a good point, so does luke. the real action with the federal reserve, when i looked into the eyes of jay powell he looked tired. he look underred appreciated. i wish these crazy people in washington would stop spending money to fix the problem. i felt bad for the guy. you have to have a little bit of empathy. actions speak louder than words. you know doesn't believe he is in recession. of course he does. he has to play out the script. washington was the last to admit

we had inflation even though everybody knew it. and last to admit we were in recession. because everybody knew it. he needs to be in florida on a beach relaxing because this is a no-win situation for him. and the market sees it. he just wants to cut rates. he wants to cut rates, neil. that is the go-to playbook. that is what he will do whether he has a chance and an acknowledge. neil: one of those metal detectors. luke, recession, we're in one that is the case. that is classic definition we're looking at. i get it. i look at that job growth. i look at the fact it has steady she goes. 3.6%. we have 11 million jobs going begging right now. i don't think that is sustainable. i think that is much stronger perch that you typically have going into recession. so there is that.

or am i just clinging desperately to something here? >> listen, i hate to be pessimistic, i'm natural not a pessimist. i like to be an optimist. i truly don't think we've seen the shoe drop when it comes to unemployment rates, labor market. we have 10 million job openings. we haven't seen really true pain right now in the economy. we have with inflation. people are living off of credit cards. they're living off of debt that can last six months, year, maybe year-and-a-half. right? what happens when people can't pay their debts anymore. did you have to start cutting back on groceries. maybe downsizing, selling the car and downsizing their car? there is so many different ways people can save money. people have not done that yet but they're going to. the economy got addicted to stimulus, liquidity really over the past decade. buy the dip now turned into sell the rips, right? what we're facing are withdrawals from liquidity being taken out of the system. what you give you taketh, eventually. whatever you giveth you taketh.

the market is used to a strong bull market for the past decade. many investors looking to jump back in, leading to strong 10% rallies. i don't think the final low is in that. insider transactions for stock increased roughly 20% since beginning of this year. insider transactions are half what they were during the covid crash and financial crisis. i think a lot of insiders still think their stock is expensive and the economy is actually going to be in worse shape than a lot of people realize. >> if i could add, neil. neil: real quick, buddy. real quick. >> bulls have argued about the job openings. those are fan tome job openings. we're seeing those begin to fade. i every day talk to tech ceos, biotech companies, those jobs are real jobs. they will vanish faster than a bunch of munchkins at a glazer barbecue. we're seeing numbers, a great optimistic sign. that is not a real number. the jobs are not there they will not get filled over the next 12

months. neil: you're both bumming me out. thank you, nevertheless. meantime here the one strength of this economy is what is going own in the hospitality an airline arena where so many are so busy booking flights, even though a good many of them are seeing flights canceled or delayed. former transportation secretary of the united states what she makes is what is going on. the present one, pete buttigieg said airlines should be held accountable when that kind of stuff happens? what does elaine chao think, former secretary of transportation? we'll ask her after this. ♪.

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neil: calling it the great reversal, others saying things you can't repeat on family snow. aishah hasnie what is happening with senator joe manchin, on spending he was deploring more than a week ago. what is happening? reporter: neil, senator joe manchin would disagree with you. he spoke with reporters. he did not reverse or flip-flop

his position at all. he is pushing back on these criticisms and claims that his bill is going to add to inflation. he does not believe that is the case but the deal, neil, is far from a vote. that is because covid is spreading through the senate. joe manchin and now dick durbin are both out with covid. and we still actually don't know where senator krysten sinema stands on all of this. she was not present at a democratic caucus meeting this morning. now either way, all of washington, practically stunned last night as manchin and schumer announced this new 740 billion-dollar energy tax and drug deal. they say it is going to reduce the deficit by 300 billion, by increasing corporate tax rate, reforming prescription drug pricing, increasing irs enforcement. the deal is also going to invest a whopping 369 billion in energy

security and climate change provisions and that includes $7500 in tax credits for those new electric car purchases. now it looks like schumer and manchin may have pulled a fast one over leader mcconnell with this the deal came mere hours after the senate passed chipped plus bill, something mcconnell previously support if democrats tried to move ahead with any part of "build back better." neil, this could have consequences for other pieces of democratic agenda. mixed opinions how this could affect gop sport on gay marriage act. republicans are whipping house in the chip plus in the house that could be in trouble. here is gop mccarthy this morning. >> the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result. so what you really should do, go with changing the definition. we all know across this country

what caused inflation. democrats winning the house, senate, and the presidency. reporter: neil, back here in the senate it looks like leader schumer will try to keep the senate in session for at least the next 10 days as we're hearing from some democrats who are putting on their n95 masks on to try to stay healthy. neil? neil: incredible. back with a vengance. thank you for that very, very much. aishah hasnie on capitol hill with all of that. delighted to have with us right now, elaine chao former secretary of transportation for the united states of america. good to have you. >> thanks so much. i was also the secretary of labor. it will be central florida haven't to what we're talking about -- relevant. neil: regardless what your position, labor secretary or transportation secretary, this is lot of money no matter what department we're talking about. i wonder what you make of the latest spending initiatives with the chips measure which you

might or might not support, this one you're getting past trillion dollar range. what do you think? >> well you know, the democrats own experts, you have, you have is. >> son fuhrman and others said all the spending would increase inflation. larry summers, former treasury secretary, former director of the domestic policy council, national economic council, he also warned against all of this government spending which is going to be such a stimulus to increasing the conditions that we have now. neil: so when you look at what the administration has been saying of late, pointing to the fact that gasoline prices have gone down i think for 44 days now straight, secretary? >> still very high. neil: quite right, but the worse might behind us, that the trend i think they're saying the trend is their friend, what do you say? >> i look at the gas station out

outside of my house, the current gas price is $5.99. that is devastating to ordinary folks who have to drive, who have to get to work. you know, that is devastating for their lifestyle. and also my dad and i go to burger king. used to be a double whopper was two for $10. one is $11. so consumers, americans, are i seeing these incredible prices increase all across the sectors in their daily or weekly shopping. at the grocery store at you know, stores all around. it is devastating. inflation is really taking a bite out of the quality of life of workers. that is what we all should be concerned about. neil: i don't want to give away where you live, secretary, where are you gas is costing almost 6 bucks a gallon? >> on capitol hill. i'm in washington now. i live in louisville, kentucky. i worked in washington. neil: that is way above the

national average. you're quite right, different cities and different folks. this inflation thing, secretary, comes back to how much americans are willing to spend. some of that, they have no control over but they can decide whether that annoying trip this harkens back to the transportation days is worth it. hassles with delays and flight cancellations it is out of control, yet we're told by some major airlines that demand is still robust. american express saying still robust. even with these has sills. what do you make of that? >> every summer we see concern. summer storms present quite a challenge to smooth airline travel. we see all the delays and congestion all the time every summer but the difference this year we're coming out of the pandemic and there is such pent-up consumer passenger demand for travel. people are sick of staying home. they have cabin fever. they want to get out and travel

and resume their lives. so on top of that, what we are seeing is a tremendous shortage of workers. all the workers across all sectors of our economy, but since you brought up transportation, let's talk about the transportation sector. we're seeing a shortage of pilots, of flight attendants, of baggage handlers. we've seen thousands of bags stranded in london airport, for example. we're also seeing a shortage in tsa security agents, gate agents. we talk a lot about the labor shortage. well now, it is really coming to the forefront. we're seeing the lack of a shortage of the workforce having an actual impact on our quality of life and also the recovery of the economy. neil: you know, your successor has been talking increasingly about holding airlines accountable for the delays and cancellations, even fining them

them. a number of u.s. senators, secretary caught up in the maelstrom and promised action on this. would you support punishing airlines, fining airlines, for this sort of thing? >> i really don't and i couldn't say that too much as secretary of transportation because you have to be very balanced, very judicious the way you talk. airlines don't want to see this happen. they have just suffered through two devastating years in which they lost money. they are so glad to see the end of covid, they want to see air travel come back. so that they can once again return to their former profitability so that they can give better jobs to their employees and they can have you know, a better options for their investors and also a better experience for the traveling public. neil: but they're not, right? they're not getting that. i'm not saying that is their fault, secretary, but i am saying there is frustration here that consumers are the ones stuck. >> of course. neil: sometimes they're marooned

at these airports. >> absolutely. neil: they can't even get their their air fare ticket back. i am wondering what is the acceptable response. >> i'm not going to, i'm not a defender, or a apologist for the airline industry but it is a tough industry and they actually make very little money as an industry. they understand the difficulties and the challenges. neil: but we have given them over $60 billion, right, secretary, not you specifically. >> the money went to the workers. the money, they were just a pass-through. the money went through them -- neil: that is a lot of money. that is a lot of money. where did it go? >> $2 trillion was given out in march of 2020, in an effort to revitalize our economy and to give people, to give companies the monies with which they can pay their workers, so that people -- neil: it didn't work. now they can't find workers.

that was money wasted. >> what happened they let off all the workers a little too quickly. they have found it is harder to bring them back because you just can't reinstate a pilot. you have to, these pilots have to go through training. they have to go through -- neil: by the way, are you for, secretary, are you for raising the retirement age to 67 from 65, would you be for that? >> senator lindsey graham has a proposal to increase the retirement age of pilots from 65 to 67. neil: right. >> we're living longer these days. we're healthier than ever before. i think that is a proposal we should be looking at. neil: i'm just saying because pete buttigieg doesn't seem keen to the idea. when i had him on, really there is a reason for that, more or less saying not open to that. >> i think all officeholders, those who are in office are terrified of being accused of compromising safety anyway. there are so many stakeholders out there and we are a

democracy. so there is a caccophony of voices about what to do but clearly our airline industry needs help and the major problem with all of the delays and the congestion are the lack of skilled workers. we have seen a tremendous decrease in the workforce in terms of availability of workers. there are 11 million jobs that are say can't and i dispute the previous speaker, there are currently right now in may, at least about 11 million jobs. neil: to your point they're growing begging. could i switch gears if you don't mind, secretary. >> one more thing, the labor participation rate is very low. it is only 62.2%. that is lower than march of 2020. when i was secretary of labor the labor participation rate was 66.4 on average over eight years. many times it was over 67%. so where do all these workers go? we're missing millions of workers who otherwise would have come back into the workforce. neil: you wonder where they're

going, what they're waiting for. you're quite right about that. i would be remiss, secretary, a lot of people didn't know this after the january 6th insurrection on capitol hill you resigned as did education secretary, betsy devos. i'm hearing the january 6 committee want to potentially talk to you and miss devos, are you open to talking to them? >> of course. neil: how do you feel about those who said that donald trump brought in on and should be held accountable? >> well that something i would be obviously talking to the committee about. neil: you obviously resigned. so you were frustrated by that. the former president has been critical of your husband, mitch mcconnell, the senate majority leader. do you -- >> mitch is very calm, very steady. neil: he is. how is he handling that, the senate republican leader i should say, how is he handling that? how do you feel when you hear

these comments from the former president, not only about but more to the point these days about your husband? >> well you know as i said many times before we have our jobs. mitch is very calm and very steady. i think he is a great leader for our country. and he has a task and a mission to accomplish and that is what he is focused on. working for the american people. neil: he has also said, i don't know how you feel about this secretary, if donald trump turns out to be the republican nominee for president in 2024 he would support him. would you? >> that is kind of his, you know his job. neil: right. >> mitch is the senate leader and as such he has to support his party's nominee. but i think you should ask these questions of him. i look forward to working on issues i'm concerned about. when i was in office i was really into transportation, technologies that will transform the transportation system of the future and so i'm really interested and working on av,

autonomous vehicles, ev charging stations, hybrid power trains and internet of things and how do all of that improve the quality of life for our residents and citizens and also create the new transportation system of tomorrow. neil: so just to back on the january 6 thing, if you don't mind my saying secretary, sounds like you're open to talking to the january 6 committee. we're told separately the committee is ready or poised when all of this is done to recommend criminal charges against the president, former president. that is obviously up to the justice department, attorney general to pursue. how do you feel about that? >> we're a nation of law and it will lead to what it leads to. i have tremendous respect for the law. and as a patriot, i worked in the previous administration because i believed the american people should have a functioning government. i'm an immigrant to this

country. my love for this country is obviously quite evident. my family and i have lived the american dream. we're so proud to be americans, that is the most, one of the most important titles that we take great pride in having. neil: secretary, thank you very much. good catching up with you. elaine chao, former labor secretary of these united states. we'll have more after this.

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- trust aag for the best reverse mortgage solutions. so you can - retire better. 'r: wetold twetontdent wrap his phone p i w xi xixinpnk the phone call was 2 1/2 hours. i couldn't understand the whole translation thing, 2 1/2 hours, yikes? jackie heinrich are more from the white house. that is a long phone call, jackie. reporter: neil, longest phone call between the two leaders since biden took office, two hours 17 minutes to be exact.

it happened against the backdrop of speaker pelosi's planned visit to taiwan. we got the chinese readout of this call. there is a little bit of difficulty translating from chinese to english but they do mention taiwan quite a few times there, foreign minister, had warned if pelosi does end up going to taiwan, they will have serious reaction, firm opposition to speaker pelosi potential visits to taiwan. if the u.s. side insists making visit to challenges china's red line, will be recent lt. measures. for any consequence there off. what the chinese said before, it is pretty clear pelosi does plan to go. invited republican congressman michael mccaul. can't make it because of prior commitment. someone may go into his place. the white house would not talk about how pelosi's plans to interact with president xi. they would talk about the war in ukraine and trade practices.

this morning president biden had decided whether or not he should lift trump era tariffs on chinese made goods. the white house was splint for weeks whether it would help inflation or harm union workers w the gdp reading out showing second quarter of negative growth, prompting recession fears there is big pressure on the white house to bring down costs. they are still, as you've been reporting denying that we about in a recession at all. rnc has been sort of hitting back at that, circulating video of biden's own economic advisors as recently as last may, defining a recession the old-fashioned way, two consecutive of negative growth. while the white house is rejecting definition now, economy is healthy looking at other indicators, they're not laying out what exactly would constitute a recession. we'll surely hear more about that later on today, neil. neil: by my math, jackie that was two minutes. you still have two hours and 15 minutes to go. is that it for now.

thank you, jacqui heinrich, jack keane u.s. four-star general fox news contributor, great honor and distinction. general, the china conversations, backdrop of this as you have indicated is pretty tense to say a leaving aside the islands and military of south china sea, provocative behavior, with taiwan, so much so that there were asia raid drills in taiwan this past week, protesting, nancy pelosi likely visiting in the near future, it sounds like a mess. what do you think? >> certainly, the number one threat to the united states. there is bipartisan support for that in terms of the threat being china. the american people get this as well. and there is serious tension here certainly. and what we're dealing with is, a very ambitious and aggressive leader. we haven't had anything like

this since mao tse-tung. certainly his ambitions are very much external with china where most of mao tse-tung's ambitions to china, which is the major difference between two of them. what he has been doing for the 10 years in office, neil, is increasing significantly the intimidation and coercion as it pertains to taiwan and in the entire area of the south china sea writ large. and the reality is that he has said time and time again that taiwan is a part of china, much as putin said ukraine is a part of russia, and we were not successful in deterring him from mail fairy invasion. president xi said the same, taiwan is part of historic china f necessary, we will take it by force and believe knee we should take those words very seriously. and increase in his intimidation and coercion is obvious. year-over-year it is getting

worse, so much so that many of us who are looking at it think that the conventional wisdom, based on some of the challenges russia is having in ukraine, that may actually cause a pause to president xi in terms of what should be done reference taiwan. i happen to believe that because of the economic headwinds that president xi is experiencing right now, they're going to get worse over time, that secondly the united states capability, while not what is should be now. deterrence has eroded it is increasing every single year. he knows full well in four or five years that the united states will likely have the kind of capability to that would seriously impact him if he kid conducts an invasion. what does that mean? that means he could go sooner rather than later in next three to five years. that is the tanker -- danger we're truly facing. neil: you're right, china an economic power in its own right,

knows all of that, goes away about they invade taiwan, if it was looking at the sanctions thrown at russia, you know, it has a lot more at stake. that has been sort of the prevailing argument, they won't do this, they have so much to lose, you argue just the opposite? >> i'm just going along with president xi and what he says. neil: yeah. >> it doesn't get reported in american media that much. but in the chinese media, what he says is very strong when he is talking party congress. what he is talking to the chinese communist party, when he is talking to the chinese people writ large. very aggressive. i think i should take him seriously. i believe the united states is beginning to fix the problem that we have. i also think we've got to change the policy of self-censorship and

and self-detouring ourselves we'll spook the chinese that policy failed miserably. he increased intimidation and coercion every year, it doesn't work. what works is standing up to him. neil: got it, general, thank you very, very much. words to pay attention to, jackie, thank you very much on all of that. bigby partisan baseball game tonight in washington, d.c., that is where the bipartisanship likely will end. we'll explain and explore after this. wow, we're crunching tons of polygons here! what's going on? where's regina? hi, i'm ladonna. i invest in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to the nasdaq-100 innovations, like real time cgi. okay... yeah... oh. don't worry i got it! become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq i have moderate to severe ulcerative colitis.

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neil: welcome back, my guy is doing coffee. touche to him. we have chad pergram right now. he is looking at a big baseball game tonight, democrats, republicans, someone unites the parties, but it kind of ends on the field, chad. what are we looking at? >> good afternoon, neil, i'm here across the street from gnats park. that is where they play the

game. i brought my lee may first baseman's. my dad's glove. he played for orioles and astros. i think they will not jack one here. they have to get across the fence. there is 21,000 fans here tonight. there is concern about climate protesters. >> baseball, non-partisan, baseball game, raising money for charity for crying out loud. i don't worry about it. it will be a safe place. strikes and winning the game. >> democrats are expecting peaceful protests. aguilar is the starting pitcher. >> we would not have practiced this much if we thought the game would be shut down. we're out there at 7:00 a.m. >> mike doyle, representative from western pennsylvania, he is retiring at the end of this congress. he is the democrat as manager, but he was the game in the p

when he played a few years ago. listen. >> i paid a pete rose slide into home plate, that i didn't really execute the way pete rose did it and busted my nose and, you know, the chalk from the batters box was like all over my face except the red blood squirting out of my nose. reporter: this attests how hard they play the game, how hard they practice. get up 4:00 in the morning. starting practice, 5:30, 6:00. in 1914 champ 7 clark, democrat from missouri, he was speaker of the house. he didn't like this game. the reason why, he was trying to get a bill across the house floor and all the members were at the ballpark at the congressional baseball game and he had to send the house sergeant-at-arms to the ballpark to get the players to come back to the capitol so they could actually debate the bill on the floor. neil? neil: what i learn listening to your ports. thank you very much, chad

pergram. chad talked about the climate protesters at the stadium tonight, they just got a huge gift a huge gift after this. new projects means new project managers. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. when you sponsor a job, you immediately get your shortlist of quality candidates, whose resumes on indeed match your job criteria. visit indeed.com/hire and get started today.

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because your clearchoice day is the day everything is back on the menu. a clearchoice day changes every day. schedule a free consultation. neil: you heard about the congressional baseball game tonight, climate activities protesters are expected to make the presence known. ro khanna, democrat from california, armed services committee. good to see you, congressman? are you at the game tonight, a player or watcher? >> i'm going to go as a fan. i used to go up going to the vet, watching phillies games. now i'm a fan of giants. i'm watching tonight. protesters will be there, they got a huge gift with cobbled together schumer of had manchin deal will address a lot of

concerns. what do you think? >> i think activism is why we have great deal. it's a great deal for the country. will unleash trillions of private dollars spending. venture capital, the private sector will put trillions of dollars now because of the clean tech tax credits into a renewable moonshot. i think this is going to be transformative. we'll be making this stuff? the united states. i hope climate activists will celebrate what could get done. neil: you know, spending kind of got us in this pickle, are you concerned you know putting it on warp speed is going to make things worse? >> no, for two reasons, neil. one the trillions that i'm talking about is actually incentivizing the private sector to spend over the years. it is not government spending. two, the person who is in the room cutting this deal was joe manchin. he has been talking about inflation from day one. he has got provisions in this bill to lower the deficit. there are provisions in there to

lower prescription drug costs. there are increases of taxes that are deflation airy. larry summers. neil: wait a minute. wait a minute. you got a lot of taxes on corporations, super wealthy, all of that. how is raising taxes on anyone in an environment like this ever beneficial? >> well, because it is anti-inflationary because it lowers the deficit and it means that the fed -- neil: do you really this is going to lower the deficit, congressman? >> 300 billion as i understand the framework will be put. neil: i can put a framework i will say i lose 10 pounds. neil you need to lose 50. i goes what i'm saying here, this is not the first time the program has been introduced as paying for itself and then some. not a one ever has. so what makes you think this is going to be different? >> two things, neil. one larry summers who has would acknowledge has been the biggest voice against inflation, says this bill is good bill. this is going to lower the

deficit. it is going to inflation. joe manchin would never sign onto something that was inflationary. he has been, unwilling to sign on to any of the bigger packages and so i think this is a bill that is focused on lower prescription drug costs, focusing on increasing taxes and corporations that are not paying them and making fundamental investments in clean technology. neil: all right. let's say it does all of that, in an environment right now where inflation is still a problem. the administration is making the same pitch that you just did there, but the administration's track record on everything from we're not in recession to discovering we are, to inflation being transitory, to discovering that it is not, i mean, you can understand why the american people are saying you know, i don't know, right? >> i get it. that is why i invoked larry summers he was not for some of the earlier spending, he has been correct about inflation and he is saying that he is locked

at this bill and he believes that this is the right economic policy. neil: you're banking all of this on larry summers? if he likes it you like it. fact of the meatier is with a lot of money we don't have. that is not new but on top of spending we've already seen why sort of poke the beast here? inflation has been beastly? >> a lot of this is lowering costs, right, lowering medical costs and prescription drug costs that did i definition is lowering inflation. neil: if it ever comes to pass, if it ever comes to pass. >> having investments, making things in america. better than having it shipped across the ocean that will lower costs. having tax revenue put towards lowering deficit. that will mean less federal borrowing, lower costs this is not a big social spending bill. neil: we see this differently. i respect your opinion a lot of things, congressman. we'll hear the president in a little under two minutes.

probably talk a little bit more about what you just did but he is also no doubt going to have to address this gdp report came out as you know t was negative. technically by the classic definition we're in research. do you agree with that, that we are officially in a recession? >> i will acknowledge gdp slowing is growed, we're in difficult economic time. we have inflation -- neil: that is not what i asked it wasn't slowing. it was contracting. we had two back-to-back quarters of that. that is the classic, you're quite right not only definition of a recession, when you go back to the constituents acknowledge, guys we're in a recession, we're out of it, what do you tell them? >> my constituents concerned, about airlines getting canceled,

formula shortage, food shortage. i tell them we have to lower prices. this bill we help pass will do that. neil: they don't think we're in a recession? you must have a very wealthy -- >> ordinary folks i think are more concerned about the cost of living because the job numbers are still pretty good and. neil: you're right about that i'm jumping on you congressman. president speaking right now on all of this. president biden: yesterday i spoke with both senator schumer and manchin offered my support for a historic agreement to fight inflation, lower costs for american families. it is called the inflation reduction act of 2022. some will see a lot of similarities between not all of it but if we move in anyway. simply put, the bill will lower

healthcare costs for millions of americans and be the most important investment, not hyperbole, the most important investment we 've ever made in our energy security, developing cost savings, job creating, clean energy solutions for the future. it's a big deal. for the first time in a long time begin to restore fairness to the tax code, begin to restore fairness by making the largest corporations in america pay their fair share with no new taxes on people making $400,000 a year. experts even experts who criticize my administration's in the past agree this bill, this bill will reduce inflationary pressures on the economy. this bill will reduce inflationary pressure on the economy. it is a bill that costs -- cuts cost of living and lowers the

deficit, strengthens our economy, and climate leaders, like former vice president al gore who said it is long overdue and necessary step to ensure the united states takes decisive action on the climate crisis that helps our economy and provides leadership for the world by example. inflation hawks like larry summers said, quote, this bill is fighting inflation. progressive leaders like elizabeth warren say, quote, this is a bill that is truly about fighting inflation and putting it on sounder economic footing, here's how it works. the bill finally delivers on the promise washington made for decades to the american people, giving medicare the power to negotiate lower prescription

drug prices, see years and consumers pay less for prescription drugs, medicare will save in the process $290 billion and in addition changes the circumstance for people on medicare by putting a cap of a maximum $2000 a year no matter how many prescriptions they have for all the prescription drugs which is important for people with cancer and long-term diseases. it is a godsend, literally a godsend for many families. second, the bill locks in place healthcare premiums for the next three years for millions of families that get coverage under the affordable care act. and average savings of $800 a year for 13 million people.

invest $369 billion, invest $369 billion to secure energy future and address the climate crisis bringing down family energy bills by hundreds of dollars, providing working families tax credits. they give folks rebates for new and efficient appliances, to weatherize their homes and tax credits for heat pumps and rooftop solar and gives consumers tax credit to buy any electric vehicle or fuel-cell vehicle, new or used an tax credit of $7500 if those vehicles were made in america. the investment in environmental justice israel and provides tax credits that corey ate thousands of good paying jobs, manufacturing jobs and clean energy construction projects, wind projects, clean hydrogen projects and more by giving tax credits for those who build

those projects in america and let me be clear, this bill would be the most significant legislation in history to tackle the climate crisis and improve energy security right away, give us the tools to meet the climate goals that we have agreed to by cutting emissions and accelerating clean energy, a huge step forward. fourth, this bill requires the largest corporations to begin to pay their fair share in taxes. by putting in place 50% corporate minimum tax. i know you never heard me say this before, it will come as a shock to you but 55 of the fortune 500 companies pay no federal income tax in 2020. you heard me say that 10,000 times, but the fact is they paid no taxes on collected income of $14 billion. guess what, this bill ends that.

they have to pay a minimum of 15% tax on that $40 billion, whatever the number turns out to be. this package reduces federal deficit by $300 billion. already on my watch deficits come down my first year by $350 billion and record $1.7 trillion the end of this fiscal year. this bill will keep that progress going. this legislation will bring down the deficit, bring down the deficit. the sixth point is this bill will not raise taxes on anyone making less than $400,000 a year and a promise i made during the campaign, which i have kept. i know it can sometimes seem nothing gets done in washington. never crossed any of your minds, but the work of the government and be slow and

frustrating and sometimes infuriating. than the hard work of hours and days and months from people who refuse to give up pays off. history is made. lives are changed. with this legislation, we are facing our biggest problems and a giant step forward as a nation, and it happened yesterday, the bipartisan decision as a nation to invest in america's manufacturing technology of semiconductors and additional funding for basic research and development and cutting-edge industries of the 21st century. i think i want to thank speaker pelosi. it added to the benefit, creating tens of thousands of additional good paying jobs.

the ability not only to compete with china for the future but to leave -- lead the world of the 21st century. you heard me say a thousand times we have to invest in research, development, and growth. i hope the house will pass this bill today. my plea is put politics aside, get it done. we need to lower the cost of automobiles, appliances, smart phones and so much more and you can't do it. all these things are powered by semiconductors and tidy computer chips the size of a fingernail tip. we should pass this today and get moving. it doesn't include everything i have been pushing for since i got to office. i have been fighting in the future to bring down the cost of middle-class families that matter.

by providing affordable accessible childcare, affordable eldercare, preschool, cost of preschool, housing, keeping students with cost of college, healthcare coverage, not the fancy way of saying it, expanding medicaid that refuse to do it and more. this bill is far from perfect. it is a compromise. it is often how progress is made, by compromises and the fact is my message to congress is of this. this is the strongest bill you can pass to lower inflation, cut the deficit, reduce healthcare costs, tackle the climate crisis, promote energy security. all the time reducing burdens facing working-class and middle-class families so pass it. pass it for the american people.

pass it for america. i will have more on this later. i want to thank leader schumer and manchin for extraordinary effort it took to reach this result. s. thank you. let me speak to one another issue, the gdp and whether or not we are in a recession. chairman powell and many significant banking personnel and economists say we are not in a recession. let me give you the facts on the state of the economy. we have record job market of 3.6% today. we created 9 million new jobs so far since i became

president, businesses are investing in america at record rates, record rates. foreign business investing in america, trillions of dollars total. $100 billion in semiconductor investments announced by intel, samsung, texas instruments, more than one hundred billion electric vehicle battery investments by ford, general motors, hyundai, tesla, and more. last week, sk corporation of the republic of korea announced $22 billion in new investments in semiconductors and medical devices creating 16,000 jobs here in america. this is the strongest rebound in american manufacturing in three decades creating 600,000 manufacturing jobs. passing the chips bill will put another $72 billion for incentives and tax credits to

expand semiconductor production and the inflation reduction act, $370 billion in energy tax credits. and domestic production of solar panels, wind turbines, and critical materials processing. that doesn't sound like recession to me. >> how confident are you we are not heading towards recession. >> you wait to see if the president will respond to reporters questions, doesn't sound like a recession to me, dismissing second quarter gdp number, the economy contracted in the second 3 months of the year at a rate of 0.9% which on top of 1.6% negative reading we had for the first quarter meets

the classic description the president's key economic advisers said define a recession when you have two back to back quarters that show contraction going on, referred to the backdrop of a strong adopt arena and the climate initiative, and climate and tax package, with chuck schumer, as further evidence that we will be out of whatever funk we are in in short order if it comes to pass. this big measure here is in the eye of the beholder, and supported something that were similar to the thing he railed against in prior attempts in build back better and all that, that was then, this is now in an environment where a lot of folks are already saying the recession is on and certainly consumer sentiment indicates they think we are not recession a matter the official status beneficial stats are telling us

we are in a recession. the adjunct professor of economics at george washington university and peter morici from the university of maryland, welcome to both of you. the notion that we are not in a recession and the president says we are not and whatever the classic definition is, and interstellar ways in on this, and do you think we are in a recession right now? >> we have two quarters of negative growth, a recession is defined by republican administrations, two quarters of negative growth, and if president biden wanted to reduce inflation and the 40%

increase in gasoline price over the last year he could expand oil and natural gas production at home instead of going to saudi arabia begging them to expand their oil and gas production. neil: does this meet the definition of a recession at this measure the president is hoping to see past will make a brief slow down. >> it won't have much of an impact at all. and after they see things like personal income for this period, the final jobs data, inflation is increasing and look at this measure, people standing online, and subsidies to buy them, that won't lower the price, it will increase it,

there's an income on it. upper income people will have to pay more for these vehicles than before, to do something when they don't want to do it. detroit can't deliver the cars and this will make a bad situation worse. stuart: when you look at this and the president says this measure is going to be fully paid for in the tax increases in that our target on the wealthy and corporations the dog the taxman what do you think of that? >> we heard today, private domestic investment was done by 13% on an annualized basis, the president wants to tax corporations by 15% makes no sense at all. you would only believe this, that it is a free sort of tax revenue that will not change

corporate behavior. and corporations go abroad and produce next. the last thing we need is an increase in the corporate income tax that will not give us revenue at a time that we just heard today that domestic investment is down by 13%. neil: no matter where people stand on the tax thing there are times to consider such an increase in times not to. i imagine in this environment it is not that time. what do you say? >> the basic problem is all the cash in people checking accounts, the left over pandemic money. lsu tax savings accounts you won't do anything about access demand. people's incomes are growing slower than prices, they are not bidding up the prices but being victimized by the higher prices which come from this administration's neglect of farm problems. we would have had food price problems even without the

situation in russia because of the conditions of the american west which is not addressing adequately and even releasing oil from the strategic petroleum reserve doesn't help if you have no place to refine it and cracking down on refineries as the administration has that means less refining capacity. he's basically manufacturing shortages of fossil fuels for what purpose is beyond me because we can't substitute out of them until more electric vehicles are available and detroit can't yet make them. it is out of sync and basically someone who is rushing to oppose an ideological agenda for the clock is up and the clock is about to be up. i suspect looking at his approval ratings the republicans will not do very well in november. neil: the democrats are not going to do well in november. >> democrats are not going to

do well in november and as a consequence you won't find 50 votes in the senate. neil: it is true, winning over manchin you don't win kristin sinema or mark kelly who is running to protect his seat both from arizona so what you gain you could lose, no guarantee this becomes reality. >> in washington if you bet against a bill you are more likely to be more right, but very serious geopolitical problems with russia cutting off natural gas, more oil and natural gas, speeding up pipeline construction, and the instructions he's given to his individual agencies.

and looking at that in light of earnings and disappoint and guidance from a lot of companies, a steady climb continuing, winning procedure the month of july, when all the major market averages, tomorrow is the final day of trading for the month, the dow in excess of 5%, the s&p 7%, the nasdaq more than 10%. if they are alarmed, a little more after this. ♪♪ ♪♪ meet ron. that man is always on. and he's on it with jardiance for type 2 diabetes.

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neil: elon musk and twitter bound rages on but things could get moving as soon as september. charles: we never know what to believe about elon musk, did he or did he not have that affair? does he not have sex anymore? why do we care?

in that spirit i report the following from bankers and financial advisors, they say a couple things. they believe he believes he's going to lose, the twitter will win something against him, backing out of the deal by twitter, but he still has an eye on buying and this is a weird gamble the way they describe it to me. he loses in october when the judgment comes down. he appeals to the delaware supreme court, and plays the long game and drags this out while twitter twist in the wind but shareholders, he doesn't want to pay $54.24, how about $38 billion or something like that.

that is his game. he has not given up on twitter. he always liked it. the market moved against him so he didn't want to pay top dollar including his own currency, shares of tesla have been down and that's the game plan. you never know, did he or didn't he have sex for the last three years. lauren: the i couldn't believe when he weighed into that thing. where does this end up. charles: i think it is what i laid out. he's going to lose probably. precedent on how to back out of

a deal, a whole $44 billion, it could be something in the middle, and he appeals and that is where it gets interesting, you drag this thing out and read the latest on twitter, financials are horrendous. the company is in disarray, and the advertising business is or. we popped the stock when i tweeted this out, more exclusive details. and he might want to buy it. if he was out the uncertainty could crush that stock, and this will play out, the gift that keeps on giving. and the overhanging question,

did he not have sex for the last year? sources tell me they don't know. neil: thank you, i think. is the phone ringing? my lawyer. more after this. riders! let your queries be known. uh, how come we don't call ourselves bikers anymore? i mean, "riders" is cool, but "bikers"...is really cool. -seriously? -denied. can we go back to meeting at the rec center? the commute here is brutal. denied. how do we feel about getting a quote to see if we can save with america's number one motorcycle insurer? should flo stop asking the same question every time? -approved! -[ altered voice ] denied! [ normal voice ] whoa.

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neil: 2 hours and 17 minutes is how long the president spoke with xi jinping on a call today. they got into everything on the part of chinese to so many details we don't know at this much we do. it was important and there was a lot of ground covered. let's go to lydia for the fallout. >> reporter: in that call that lasted two hours speaker nancy pelosi, taiwan was top of mind. president xi told president

biden china opposes taiwan's independence and external forces during the call and added that the us should abide and act in line with its words and when it comes to taiwan those who played with fire will get burned, the us defense secretary lloyd austin says he's concerned how aggressive china is acting, some including john ratcliffe say pelosi should follow through with the visit. >> the chinese government, not the american government gets to decide the national security posture and concerns in the south china seas and that would be disastrous. >> reporter: the call comes as president biden is considering relaxing donald trump's tariffs on imports in order to reduce

inflation but rolling back on the tariffs would have a minimal attack, 12:45%, and tariffs were imposed with decades of chinese intellectual property, and it was not taken seriously and that would be a time when chinese electoral property still cost the american economy $225 billion, and $600 billion a year. with the gdp report showing a shaking economy, there would be growing pressure here, to take action on tariffs something that would make beijing happy. neil: thank you for that. i'm talking about north carolina republican, you heard about this long phone call the

president had with xi jinping. there are a lot of people wondering whether they should come off right now, the tariffs donald trump imposed, sort of cleared off. how do you feel about that? this administration says it would charge average americans a lot of money. >> can't allow china to determine whether a member of congress should visit independent taiwan. she should bring republicans along on congressional delegation. neil: are you for having them removed? >> they may come in minuscule affect, in response to decades of predatory practices of china towards the us, they need to lead them in place and this is leading to inflation. it is biden policies on energy

and antibusiness policies, in every walk of life. neil: hate to be rude but the treasury secretary is responding to the latest development and the latest gdp report out, president biden talking about the fact we are not in a recession. >> driven by this administration's policies, particularly to fiscal support in the rescue plan combined with vaccination efforts and allowed businesses to reopen to allow americans to get back to work, over the course of the administration our economy has created 9 million jobs and the labor market is now at full employment. in 2021 we showed the biggest single year decline on record and the biggest year economic growth in four decades.

investment added to pre-pandemic trend in two years, in the last two recessions this never happened. we reduced the deficit by one. $10 trillion. these statistics are not abstractions, they represent american workers back at work, families with more financial security and businesses small and large, as president biden has said, we entered a new phase in recovery, focused on stable growth without sacrificing gains, there are changes ahead of us. growth is slowing globally, inflation remains an acceptable high. this administration's top

priority to bring it down. we know how difficult prices can be for families. how they can squeeze a budget and have challenging the past two years of disruption caused by covid 19 have been. that's why this administration mounted a historic vaccination campaign to get the pandemic under control and how we are laser focused on bringing down prices, the same factors that have driven inflation to record levels internationally in canada, the united kingdom and the euro zone, these factors are hurting americans as well. these challenges also include vladimir putin's illegal and shameful war in ukraine, more than half the inflation experienced in 2022 reflects rising food and energy costs,

global fallout from russia's invasion and lingering impact since the pandemic particularly in china where repeated lockdowns brought their economy to a halt. the federal reserve has the primary role in bringing down inflation. the president and i are committed to taking action to drive down costs and protect americans from global pressures we face. that includes the president's historic release of 1 million barrels a day from the strategic petroleum reserve which reduced the price of gas between 17, and $0.42 a gallon according to treasury analysis this week. americans have seen additional relief on this front, and prices declined by $0.60 a gallon in total. our efforts include the work

we've done on the price of russian oil, way to ensure a steady flow of oil onto the global market. denying putin revenue for his military. at the time of global anxiety over prices, a price on russian oil is one of the most powerful tools we have to address inflation by preventing future spikes in energy costs. the reconciliation package announced yesterday will help ease inflationary pressures by lowering the biggest costs families face including energy, healthcare and prescription drugs while making historic investment in fighting climate change and reducing the deficit. importantly, this bill will make sure we have the resources we need to ensure that wealthy

americans are not able to avoid paying the taxes that they'll. these efforts are long overdue and congress should pass it immediately. this context including the successes of the last year and the global challenges we face is critical in understanding today's data. most economists and most americans have similar definition of recession, substantial job losses and mass layoffs, businesses shutting down, productivity slowing considerably, family budgets under strain, some broad-based weakening of economy. that's not what we are seeing when you look at the economy. job creation is continuing. household finances remain strong.

consumers spending and business is growing. when example in the last three months our economy created 1.1 million jobs. and each modern recession outside the pandemic our economy lost 240,000 jobs on average. spending by businesses and consumers, the core of our economic activity rose 3% in the first quarter of this year and continued to expand in the second. industrial outlook, the measure of mining and utility sectors has shown strong average growth the first half of the year compared to sharp average declines in past recessions. in the context of today's report it is important to look

beyond the headline number to understand what is happening, the contraction in gdp driven primarily by the change in private inventories, volatile component of gdp subtracted to percentage points of quarterly growth. today's report shows continued expansion and consumer spending overall and services in particular in addition to notable strength amid exports. overall with slowdown in private demand this report indicates an economy transitioning to more steady sustainable growth. this path is consistent with inflationary pressures while maintaining the labor market progress of the last 18 months. our economy has been resilient in the face of numerous shots over the past 2 years, there

are numerous risks on the horizon many of them global, we remain highly attuned to. they include the outcome of the war in ukraine, covid lockdowns in china and pandemic related supply chain snarls, this makes predicting the future difficult. she must be clear eyed and vigilant about the threats they pose will. we cannot lose sight of the progress we have made from the depths of the pandemic and the resilience our economy has shown thanks to the hard work and perseverance of american workers, families and businesses as well as effective politics. this gives us a solid foundation to confront the challenges ahead of us. in the months to come, and it is possible to maintain that

strength particularly in the labor market while using the tightness that is driven inflation. with that i would be happy to take your questions. >> regardless of whether or not we are in a recession, you seem to be indicating not, many americans are feeling some pain right now. last time we had to tame inflation at this level was the early 1980s and took two years to do that. do you anticipate the fight against inflation will be a long and grinding one or will it be faster, do we need to see job losses to bring the inflation rate down? >> with respect to how

americans are feeling about the economy, they are experiencing great stress from high inflation. we haven't seen anything like this since the 1970s and see what's happening to food prices and energy prices, rent and other prices in the economy, making families concerned about their household budgets and this is pressure that is real, the president's top priority to bring inflation down. and the federal reserve's, they are clearly moving to address that and vindicated their commitment to bring it down.

very unusual situation in that coming out of the pandemic we have supply-chain challenges that continue to affect the economy. example being the ongoing shortage of semiconductors holding back production of vehicles, hard to know what timeframe is for supply-chain pressures to resolve and ease. there are positive signs that suggest inflation is likely to come down in the days ahead. the fed is taking the right measures. the administration and congress are taking supplementary

measures like releases from the strategic petroleum reserve, one factor working to bring down gas prices and the legislation that will make an enormous difference to prescription drug prices and serve to hold healthcare costs down. investments in energy to address climate change will over time improve our sense of security about energy and make us much less vulnerable to global shocks and we are working with allies on the price to avoid further upward pressure on oil and gas prices. >> thank you very much. i would like to follow up on david's question by asking do you think it will be necessary

for unemployment to rise above 5%, in order for inflation to reach the longer run target of 2%? >> i believe as i said that there is a path to bring down inflation while maintaining a strong labor market and most estimates of the natural rate of unemployment are lower than 5%. this is not a certainty that that can be done but i believe there is a path to accomplishing that and as chair powell has said repeatedly, that would be his objective to try to accomplish that and i would consider that a good outcome. we are seeing a slowing in the economy and in demand that is

appropriate and necessary to transition from rapid growth, from shortfall and very strong labor market, we need to see a slowdown in growth. i believe, by which we maintain a strong labor market like that.ou say a little more about how the inflation reduction act, how much that would obstruct track from inflation from the timeframe? >> don't have miracle estimates but it is an important

contribution to lowering the cost of prescription drugs which is for many households a severe burden on their household budget. this is something policymakers and members of congress have sought to accomplish for many years and it is a great achievement if it can help and with respect to healthcare premiums the funding that is provided is important in holding down health insurance costs, for many americans, important contributions we should see come into play as soon as legislation is passed and put into effect. beyond that, there is deficit reduction in the bill and over

time i see deficit reduction as an appropriate accompaniment to the policy changes the fed is putting into effect. >> in today's gdp report we saw high nominal gdp growth. how does that high level of growth job with the idea that the economy is slowing at does it suggest the economy will have to slow down at a more aggressive pace in order to get back to 2% inflation? >> we had high nominal gdp growth because inflation is high and it shows up in gdp, real growth is reported in this advance report as a negative number and that's a better metric to look at, the overall

performance of the economy. i see the last several quarters exhibiting a significant slowdown in the pace of spending in the economy but when you look at the details in terms of spending components we are in a period of significant fiscal drag, government spending made a negative contribution to gdp. we saw negative contribution this quarter huge from inventories but consumers spending remains positive, definitely the real data, there is a slowdown in progress.

this is tight, the source of the inflationary pressures not all of it by any means, the supply chain problems, those are important. for every unemployed person, the level of tightness in the labor market. the slowdown in the economy, the restoration of higher-level rebound and labor force participation not sure if that will occur, taking the tightness out of the labor market while maintaining a strong labor market. that is the plan to bring down inflation.

>> thank you, madam secretary. is there such a thing as a mild or partial recession? what would that look like? are you committed to staying in this role? >> i will stay in this role as long as president biden finds my contribution useful. i serve at his pleasure. what was the first part of the question? mild recession. recessions are different and we had an extremely severe recession following the global financial crisis when unemployment rose to around 10% and it took a decade for the

economy to get back to full employment. we've had milder recessions than that. there has usually been significant increase in the unemployment rate. this is a very unusual situation where we slow the labor market remains very tight and we so much mile using a pressures in the labor market and yet continue to feel we've got a good strong labor market operating in full employment. >> there has been a big run up in the dollar in currency markets, that's hard on emergency markets. the degree of dollar appreciation is appropriate and should we worry about feedback loops?

>> there certainly has been depreciation of the dollar and part of it is driven by interest rate differentials, in the united states and other countries to tighten monetary policy. it attracted capital inflows pushing up the dollar, typically something that occurs in cycles, and risk safe haven type flows that exacerbated that. i'm worried about the global outlook, the imf and world bank on several occasions downgraded the outlook.

pressures on their economies especially with dollar-denominated debt, and rising interest rate strong dollar environment can create pressures in other parts of the world especially a time when all of us are suffering the impacts of driving up energy and food prices and creating real burdens, and likely to experience debt distress. this is a stressful environment for many countries around the world, some countries are benefiting from higher commodity prices.

it is self reinforcing cycles and don't see that occurring at this point, don't see that kind of distress developing anywhere that i am aware of. >> thank you. the polling shows that most americans feel we are in a recession, why have this drawn out frantic battle to find recession, they feel they were misled, with recession by the definition, why has it become this battle? >> i agree with you and we should avoid semantic battles. i tried to do that in my

remarks today. when you say americans are concerned about their economy, their biggest concern is with inflation and high prices that they feel they can't afford to put gas in their gas tank, and people worried about their retirement savings and whether they have enough to retire. and the discomfort households feel is not because of the job markets, jobs are readily available and most americans feel good about their employment prospects, layoffs have been low. and the labor market will weaken but i think

. that's why that is our top priority in terms of the addressing that. i when you look at the economy the official arbiter of what is a recession is going to be the national bureau of economic research. they will decide it sometime in the future. so i think what we can constructively do is talk about what is the state of the economy. and as i traded to describe the labor market remains exceptionally strong. that is not what we see in past episodes that the nber has labeled to be recession. on the other hand, we do see significant slowdown in growth. that's to be expected, given how rapidly the economy grew when it was recovering. neil: you're listening to

janet yellen, treasury secretary of the united states, it may be a battle of semantics here but she does not buy her boss does not buy the two back-to-back negative quarter thing as classic definition of a recession. up to the national bureau of economic research, dozen are or so economists that weigh on what a recession started and ended. they haven't decided that stocks racing to the high of the day. they're not worried so far. let's go to charles payne. charles: in weird way market is celebrating recession, neil, during the show. it has been remarkable. can't wait to talk about all of it. neil: all right, bud. charles: good afternoon, i'm charles payne, this is "making money." i know this is not new to the vast majority of americans. for the record, folks, we are in recession. the market likes news. it means the fed might stop hiking, could soon start cutting. main street hates the news. be honest the pain