stuart: in which year did the first human travel into spaces? i'm convinced that i know the answer to this one, and i think i've got it right. what's your guess? lauren: 1955. stuart: strong, 1961 -- am i right? april 12,s 1961. there you have it. time's up. neil is yours. neil: that's cheerful, thank you very much. stuart, a real quick question, i always love your exchange with viewers, people really like you. but you've never been to a movie theater lately? stuart: no. neil: there's some great movies, the elvises movie, jurassic movie. stuart: i just haven't been in the right place, right time to go and see a movie. i don't object to it, i'm just not motivated to go. i'm a couch guy watching fox

news and fox business on tv. that's what i do. neil: okay. just checking. stuart: thank you. neil: working a little too hard, my friend. [laughter] thank you. have a wonderful weekend. stuart see ya. neil: inflation still very, very real problem. we've got such a packed show today because this is the one thing that so long ago ray dalio was worried, one of the most successful investors in human history, warning about what's going on and now seeing it all ball out. he's going to be my special guest on this show. can't wait for that. but here's a bit of a teaser for you, what he sees going on like right now. take a look. >> i think inflation will come down a bit, but it's going to be very high, and money's going to get a lot tighter. so you're going to have a stag police station. neil: -- stagflation. neil: is it going to be a '70s type, revisit the carter years?

he sets way back on this, the guy who runs the largest hedge fund on the planet, his read on everything that has happened. i talk about inflation. he's a kid that came on the wrong side of the tracks, had nothing, built something mighty that few investment professionals have seen before or since. his view of the world, and it is a world view, here and only here coming up. in the meantime, inflation. you know, there might be doubts about whether we're in a recession or not depending on with whom you've talked, no doubt we've got an inflation problem, and it appears to be getting worse. edward lawrence from the white house. >> reporter: yes, stag police station, shrinkflation, inflation, can we just get rid of all of them? this was a really bad week for economic data that's coming out and today is no different, the indicator that came out today, pce. inflation is now at 6.8% year

other year, the highest level since january 1982 when modern problems was the number one movie in america, talking about going to theaters. the core pce inflation increased to 4.8%. that's without food and energy prices, the highest reading since april of this year. inflation if has taken off, month over month it doesn't look better. the increase in pce inflation, 1%, the highest level since march of 1980. inflation doesn't appear to be peaking just yet. republicans say the policies of this administration continue to hurt americans. >> they're doubling and tripling down on failure. at a time when we may be in recession, at a time when american people are hurting in so many different ways, for them to wail consider -- actually consider raising taxes on job-creating businesses and the like, packing their climate

agenda -- >> reporter: so the white house many pull spin mode. we heard from the -- full spin mode. if you ask the treasury secretary, she'll say nothing to see here, move along. >> at its core, our remarkable progress since then has been driven by administration's policies. particularly through timely and targeted fiscal support and the rescue plan combined with the vaccination effort that that allowed businesses to reopen and americans to get back to work. >> reporter: and if you ask almost anybody just walking on the street, prices are way too high, and that was not the case pre-pandemic during the last administration. so wanted to keep that movie theme going along. [laughter] neil: right. i can't believe it, he doesn't go to the movies. there's great ones out this summer. >> reporter: top gun. you forgot top gun came out -- neil: really?

that's one i don't want to see, but that's a whole other conversation. i recommend the elvis movie, off the charts great, but that's just me. thank you, my friend. gerri willis with us right now with something that could complicate this inflation picture, and that's what's happening with government spending. it's back on with a vengeance. joe manchin, who signed on to that climate deal, says, don't worry. but, jerry weu8 lis, there are doubts, right? >> reporter: yeah. a new reconciliation bill, hey, it'll do just the opposite according to critics who say the billions in spending and proposals will raise consumer prices and taxes will hurt companies' bottom lines even as the recession grips the economy. called the inflation reduction act and negotiated by chuck schumer and joe manchin, the bill proposes $485 billion in new spending including a raft of expenditures promoting the

president's green agenda including 40 billion dollar in tax credits, 30 billion each for clean electricity grants and clean agricultural funding. plus, the 3-year extension of subsidies for the affordable care act. critics say expanding tax credits and aca subsidies will result in higher prices for consumers, not lower ones. few infranation numbers as ascribed today mean 40-year fresh highs for prices, and a recent study from the san francisco fed concluded that pandemic relief packages, they already spent $3.5 trillion, that has added an additional 3 percentage points to inflation by the end of 2021. but manchin disagrees about the bill. listen. >> so people say why didn't you wait for the inflation figures? because i know i'm not adding to inflation. >> reporter: now, the offsets totaling $790 billion include a 15% minimum corporate taxing as

well as a drug price inflation cap and negotiation of certain drug prices. the committee for a responsible federal budget concludes that the bill will result in net deficit reduction of $305 billion and is result in a slight reduction in inflation. neil, back to you. neil: all right, thank you for that, jerry gerri willis. bob, you know, you've been around the financial world for a while, don't look a day older for it, my friend. but i am curious to this argument more government spending, that this is different, that it won't, you know, make the inflation situation worse, i'd just be curious your thoughts on that. >> inflation prevention act, inflation reduction act, i don't get it. since when do higher taxes and more spending heed to less inflation? i scratch my head. having said that, neil, this is now coming out, the announcement of an agreement, about the same time inflation's going to start

falling. i am in the camp that says second quarter was the peak inflation rate. we're not going back to 2, but we'll back off some, and they may say, see, i told you so. [laughter] but it won't be that. it'll be the slow economy, declining commodity prices, some solve in the supply problem, but inflation's probably peaked. neil: in the meantime, there's no doubt we have inflation. there's a back and forth among particularly those in the white house whether we're in a recession. i raised that issue with gene sperling, one of the prime minister's economic advisers -- president's economic advisers, trying to get a sense of if it isn't a recession, what is it? this is my conversation yesterday. when you say that we're to not in a recession, you know, whatever hope you get from that and americans hear that and remember some of the stuff that i'm talking about, they think you're just out of touch, gene. >> except we aren't and i didn't. i started by saying every family is the greatest expert of their situation, that people feel

squeezed or -- neil: no, they're facing a recession, they feel it's a recession. okay. americans feel a recession, they have no doubt about it. i know the back and forth on whether two back to back negative quarters constitute a recession. if maybe you could settle this argument, bob. how do you see it? what definition do you use? what do you look at? how would you characterize what what we're in? >> look, we're clearly slowing. whether it's a recession or not is somewhat meaningless. we are slowing. you look at the employment numbers, yeah, there are a lot of jobs available, but employment is slowing, layoffs are rising, consumer spending is falling. and until and unless we solve the inflation problem, neil, we're in hot water. and in the meantime, the fed is between the proverbial rock and hard place. neil: so it's not across the board. to your looking at ve session -- recession and what we're going

through the right now, there is evidence to support much of the administration's argument that if this is a recession given the job growth we've seen and given some of the companies that have talked about strong consumer demand can, look at apple, of course, strong demand for those iphones. they're not exactly cheap items. you've seen, you know, sales even with record price increases at donald's and chipotle, covers the gamut. now, i know this isn't everyone, but what do you make of the resiliency of the consumer true all of this? -- through all of this? >> the consumer still has a lot of cash accumulated when the government mailed them trillions of dollars and when they stayed at home in their pajamas because they were scared of covid. that money's sill on the balance sheet, so they're using some of that, neil, that's giving us robust areas of our economy. but it's starting to fragment. it's not like everything was -- look at the second quarter earnings. they're mixed. less bad than fear, for sure, but probably slowing from here.

that's the problem, the trajectory is in the wrong direction. neil: you know, bob, you mentioned we might see through the worst of the inflation problem. are we through the worst of the stock market problem? in other words, given this month unless something falls completely out of bed in the next few hours, we're looking at heady gains in all the market averages including the nasdaq, up more than 11%. will we look back at this time as the turn around, or how do you see it? >> neil, look, rally's been the most impressive since the bear market started. but we still haven't seen the give-up that occurs at natural bottoms. so i don't think we're out of the woods, absent a significant recession i don't think there's a whole lot of downside. but i would believe second half of this year from june 30, december 31, stock prices are likely to be up but maybe not by a whole lot. neil: bob, have a good weekend. always good catching up.

bob doll. don't forget, we have ray dalio with his view of the world. by the way, he does look at not just country by country, he looks at inflation and economies around world as sort of joined at hip. he sees history repeating itself and that old line it might not exactly repeat, but it sure does rhyme. wait until you hear where he thinks the world is going from here. that's coming up. in the meantime, the latest on that li, v tournament, time going on in bedminster, new jersey. donald trump, of course, among those hosting this big event at his own club. he is speaking out in support of the saudis sponsoring this new golf league, but a lot of folks are saying enough already. but they've got money, and the money talkses. a swedish professional golfer on what she makes of all of that, after this. ♪ ♪

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if you have at least 10,000 dollars to invest, call and talk with one of our bond specialists at 1-800-217-3217. we'll send you our exclusive bond guide, free. with details about how bonds can be an important part of your portfolio. hennion & walsh has specialized in fixed income and growth solutions for 30 years, and offers high-quality municipal bonds from across the country. they provide the potential for regular income... are federally tax-free... and have historically low risk. call today to request your free bond guide. 1-800-217-3217. that's 1-800-217-3217. neil: all right, the saudis can't buy publicity like in this, a golf tournament being hosted at the president's club in bedminster the, new jersey.

it's the saudi-backed golf tournament at that, starts today, complete on sunday. if that isn't a reminder to the pga that this is a force and a phenomenon building considerable steam, probably nothing will. annika sorenstam joins us now, thed swedish professional golfer, an iconic figure in the golf movement. i'm sure, annika, maybe you look at all of this and say, i don't know, if they open this up to women, would you be interested? >> well, hello. first of all, thank you for having me on the show. neil: thank you. >> -- to the women, some way or another, i know lpga is willing to talk to them and see what they come up with. neil: would you be interested? >> well, as you know, you are a retired golfer -- neil: there are one or two who are no longer active professionals, but saudis are wooing them just the same. >> you know, the last 14 years i've been working on trying to

grow the game amongst young girls especially, and if i'm a big supporter of lpga and continue to work with them. i've played in a few tournaments this year, and i'm kind of with the lpga. they're going to the to talk to them, i'm here to grow the game. if we can find innovative ways to grow the game within a positive image, which i think we're all looking for, and making it more inclusive. i'm here to listen and look at opportunity. neil: you know, there are many in your sport, annika, who are saying, you know, money does talk. the saudis have plenty of that. they've been very successful at wooing a number of players, talk that they will eventually go way onjust golf, way beyond for the time being just men, for example, and that the pga is just nervous, and that's the reality. like it or not, saudis are here to stay with. what do you make of that? >> well, i must say i think we're all surprised really how fast it's gone and is what an

impact they're making. as you know, money does talk, and people go where the money is. it's been amazing to see many of the big names on the pga tour leave for the liv. so i think we just immediate to find a way to work together -- need to find a way to work together. everybody should have interest of growing the game from a long-term perspective. let's make this good for everyone. i think right now it's creating different camps, a pro camp and an anti camp, and i don't think it's good for the game. if they're serious about making a difference in the game, let's chat, let's get people included, and let's get something good out of it. neil: that's not a bad idea, ann a ca -- annika, not a bad idea. we have a lot more coming up here. with the dow up about 142 points and that despite confirmation of still more worrisome inflation numbers, you might be asking yourself where are we going with

this and the tensions with china, where are we going with that? ray dalio's here the weigh in on both after this. ♪ ♪ neil: -- china more, we say, but you say, no. mutual destruction, right? >> who cares if it hurts china more? neil: yeah. >> like, is that a win, when it hurts you terribly? okay, so when you have a war, both sides lose. i'm not, i'm just trying to be practical here. ♪ ople remember ads with young people having a good time. so to help you remember that liberty mutual customizes your home insurance, here's a pool party. look what i brought! liberty mutual! they customize your home insurance... so you only pay for what you need! ♪young people having a good time with insurance.♪ ♪young people.♪ ♪good times.♪ ♪insurance!♪

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that's probably cliche, but in running the world's largest hedge fund and tallying up records that would make the most successful investors in history blush, ray dalio has found opportunities where where others see only disaster. and sometimes in the midst of those opportunities when others are cashing in fearing nothing can go wrong, there's old ray saying, well, everything can go wrong and profiting just same. it's a rags to riches story we see play out for modern day horatio alger story, hi italian-american version, against all odds, against the background that that didn't hint at the success he would have and the world to look at impressivelied today. it was a rare opportunity for me to sit down with this most successful of investors and get his take, first and foremost, on the state of the world. and more importantly right now, on the state of the economy. more to the point.

ray dalio. >> the way it really works is you take money and credit away from if people, right? and something else costs them, so they spend less. and because they spend less, then you have less inflation. all of them have been painful, and we produced a whole lot of debt. and so now even the federal reserve is going to start selling 1.1 trillion. and then you have the treasury selling a trillion. and so there's a lot of selling. and what that does is it takes private credit. how bad -- neil: at expense -- [inaudible conversations] >> you know, the way the system works really is when you get a little bit, you get weakness, you get a shot of credit, and it's like a shot of an upper. so that gives you buying power. and it shouldn't be surprising that when you buy a lot more -- [laughter] inflation goes up. neil: right. >> and then --

[inaudible] to this degree? because, actually, you did. >> i expected it to go up about where it is. neil: right. >> but then we also had other things, you know? we had the ukraine and we had something -- there's nothing precise, but i expected it, yeah, to go up quite a lot. because inflation is due to the total amount of money spent divided by quantity of goods sold. nothing more than that. so when there's -- giving buying power and you spend a lot, we've increased the money supply by any other measures, an enormous amount. neil: yeah. can we get a soft landing doing what we're doing right now? markets kind of hope against all odds that we can and we avoid a recession, but what do you think? >> you can't keep spending and bring down inflation. so here's what i think, i think that we're not going to be able to bring an interest rate to a high enough level to give a good

real return to holders of credit without causing a contraction in economic activity. neil: worse than what we're experiencing. >> right. you are at an 8% inflation rate. look at what people get, and we're talking now about a 3% interest rate and people think that that's good. neil: right. >> so you're going to lose money, lose buying power. i think inflation will come down a bit, but it's going to be very high. and money's going to get a lot tighter. so you're going to have a stagflation. neil: like we had in the '70s? worse? >> these things -- similar to the '70s, but none of them are all the same. there's always a paradigm shift. it's like there's a 10-year period, and almost every 10-year period is opposite of the 10 years before. neil: right. >> the '70s produced the '80.

neil: yeah, it was nice to see that. it bears doubt, doesn't -- out, doesn't it? >> well, reason is at the end of that period of time, everybody believes that the future will be like the last 10 years, and everybody's positioned that way. neil: right. >> so when you look at the environment over the last 10 years, not inflation, low interest rates, availability of credit, so these moves take place typically over a period of 10 years and, let's say, 2 legs. 2 legs to the move. so you have a change in mindset. people thinking what is safe. used to think that cash was safe, a safe investment. but cash doesn't -- can it loses buying power to inflation. so now as people realize that that loses buying power and as the fed has to deal with the tightening of monetary policy, you get the paris leg. and that -- the first leg. and that's the first leg that

we're in. and when that runs its course, which it probably would run its course i would say in the next 18 months or so, then you have -- neil: 18 more months of tightening? >> yes. 18 more months of -- and, by the way, there's nothing precise, and i'm not sure that i'm right in this. but i'm just saying, i'm giving you what i think, right? that if you take the cycle, you have to raise interest rates high enough that it produces an adequate return, otherwise the sellers, heir going to sell their instruments -- they're going to sell their instruments. and if we look at the supply-demand for credit, the federal reserve's going to sell 1.1 trillion, you have the government sell a trillion and you have others selling because it doesn't provide a good return. that creates a certain tightness of money. that creates a fall in the contraction, you have a contraction in spending power, credit. and so that's what's likely

ahead. so you have the first leg of the move. like all classic -- neil: this is just the first leg. >> well, the big -- yeah. these things take place until the opposite is true, until people believe that cash won't be a good investment, until there's inflation. so i think that you have the leg. like 197 1 into '7 # and then '3, tightness in money policy causes 1974, '5, bad recession, bad market, easing of monotarian policy. hen -- monetary policy. then you get another leg up, '76, '77. then you have the higher level of inflation, the tight money policy. and at that point everybody believes that i never want to own a bond, i never want -- i only want inflation hedge assets because that's how they're positioned, and then the opposite happens in the '80s. so it's that kind of a situation. and that's happening in a political environment. because we're talking about markets, but we can't separate

markets from politics. and is we can't -- we can't separate politics internally from external politics. so we also have political situation this terms of the left and the right and the extremity of that and what that might mean in terms of policy. neil: so it matters who's in charge in that environment. >> of course it matters who's in charge. there's the fight over wealth and power, and it's an irreconcilable difference politically. you know, we have populism, and populism -- a populist is a person who will fight for that one side and won't lose. they won't compromise -- neil: donald trump. >> donald trump or it could be the opposite. but the ability -- neil: i don't think joe biden's a populist. >> no, but i think there are also populists on the left -- neil: got it.

>> -- and there are populists of the right. and neither of them may have irreconcilable differences, and they won't lose. neil: that that's why they don't get anything done. >> that's why question is in the next election, will either side accept losing? think about us americans asking, will both sides accept losing? will we respect the system? so it makes an inefficiency in the economy. then we take other hinges, not just the -- things, not just the printing of money, but we're spending without a limitation. you know, normally if there was not a fiat monetary system or you as an individual, you ask how much money do you have to spend. but now we think we have spending on defense, spending on rebuilding the ukraine, spending on this program, spending on that program. there's not a limitation. these things are connected. so, yes, leadership and the

efficiencies matter in terms of the economy, and they matter in terms of lifestyle because we have these internal conflicts and external conflicts in which there's worries about self-sufficiency in case of a war. in orders, we think about trade. all of those enter into the picture. so you have a dynamic that is very similar really to the 1930s dynamic or even -- neil: well, the 1930s dynamic, a lot of people are saying now we have to to get ready for china. you think cooler heads and hope, you talk about cooler heads possibly prevailing. you talk about the taiwan issue, and you say that taiwan is a one of a kind interest that china could would fight for because of its belief that there is but one china, and taiwan is part of china. it's doubtful, you say, that the u.s. would consider it worth a major fight to defend, though it might. this seems to me to be only possible trigger for a military

war between the two greatest powers in the next ten years. you had to do an under and over on that, what would you say? >> well, i would say 30% of a military conflict. i think both sides recognize how terrible a military conflict would be. but you could take something like nancy pelosi's trip -- neil: right. i was just thinking about that. >> okay. neil: could that trigger it? >> the fact that we're simply talking about it, that we're so close to the edge, it's not the old days. the old days -- neil: that doesn't take much, right? >> the united states used to be a dominant military power. think about it, the new world order began in 1945. the united states won the war. we had 80% of the world's money. gold was money then. we were half the world's gdp and had military power, so nobody wanted to fight. if you look at the history of

these things over a period of time, when you have then comparable powers and there's disagreements, it can be resolved quite often by a conflict. and so that's the nature. we're no longer the dominant power. so it becomes closer. so now when we deal with exist ten, issues for different parties, there is a risk of these things. neil: it's supposedly in both our economic interests to avoid that. >> of course. neil: things are always avoidable -- >> in china became russia, think about the economic consequences of how we're intertwined. 22% of american manufactured goods, imports come from china. so just imagine if china became like russia. in other words, you say i don't want to take imports, so people don't buy their nikes, their apples, they don't buy things that are produced in china and so on. do you know what that would mean

economically for us in terms of the inflation rate and the consequences? neil: the argument would be it hurts china more, you say, but you say mutual destruction, right? >> who cares if it hurts china more? neil: yeah. >> is that a win, when it hurts you terribly? neil: yeah. >> okay, so both sides -- when you have a war, both sides lose. i'm not, i'm just trying to be practical here. when if we're looking at this, you asked the question where are we. we are at a risky position, right? we understand this. what would the consequences be? i'm describing the consequences. member nistically. i'm not ideological, i'm a practical guy -- neil: what i love about book, you go through history where powers come and go, among others, china, england, spain, russia. but it all goes in waves. where are we in this wave right now? >> well, there's an arc -- neil: yeah. >> the way it works is there's a new order. and a new order comes out of a

conflict, and one side wins. the last world order began in 1945. there's one -- then there's the dominant power economically and on. and hen as they become the dominant power, you have a period of peace and prosperity because nobody wants to fight it, people work together. it's a great equalizer also. wealth gaps are less, people come back and they produce that generation. then what happens over a period of time is things get better, you change the generations, you've changed the approaches, and then you build up larger wealth gaps, larger, you know, wealth is something in our system that is not distributed equally or you build up resentments -- neil: are we at that pressure point many. >> >> we certainly are. that's not a controversial statement. neil: right, right. all right. we'll continue with ray dalio. the book is "the principles for

dealing with the changing world order," it is a series of books on principles. in this one they examine why nations succeed and fail. we're going to get into a little bit about what he picks apart because part of his investment strategy is not to look at investments period, but the way the world is swinging and changing in the cycles. when we come back, we're going to be exploring specifically his worries about china. later in the show how he thinks that that all stacks up as an ongoing concern. as he points out, it doesn't really take much to get a war started. think of the way world war i started with the assassination of archduke ferdinand and his wife, and then it grew to the to include more than two the dozen world powers fighting each other. it was settled by that simple -- set off by that simple act. wasn't so simple, but that's what happens with wars. no one plans for them or invites them, they happen. economic or worse. stay with us.

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slip-up could make much worse. what do you think? >> well,ing i disagree a little bit in terms of the over/under. i actually think it's more than likely we will have a war with china. i say that, neil, because you can look at history. history's filled with all of these different situations where you have a rising power like a china that meets, i hate to say it, a relatively declining power like the united states. and i say that just because we compare our power advantages after world war ii. compared to that, we have declined a little bit. but i think the challenge which the chinese understand in the long term that the united states does not want them to dominate the asia pacific region. they have declared the south china sea their own sovereign territory. so that's a big deal, and that's why i think there is a real possibility we have a war. neil: it doesn't take much, and you're a great student of this history, for something to dig therer something much worse. i mentioned about world war i

and the assassination of archduke ferd if demand and his wife. who would have thought they would lead to complex relationships that brought it to a war, the first world war. it's hard to envision whether a trip by nancy pelosi to taiwan, for example, would trigger something like that, but what do you think? >> actually, i could see a very real scenario. let's say, for example, the chinese decide that they want to flex their military muscles and they start doing missile tests. let's suppose they fire some miss sills that they want to go off might be 20 miles off the coast of taiwan. let's say that accidentally one of guy dance systems fails and it lands in downtown taipei? those are very real possibilities that could trigger a war. taiwan responds back, the united states starts moving forces to back taiwan, china responds. i mean, this is how war withs happen. it doesn't have to be -- neil: no, no, no, i see exactly what you're talking about,

harry. one other thing, we always assume in this country that china looks at the boycotts, the punishments that have been meted out, sanctions against russia in light of the ukraine war, and probably figures there but by the grace of god go i, and we don't want anything to do with that, we depend on the rest of the world to keep us the economic and military power we are. so they don't want to risk pushing things over the edge with the united states or any other western power. but we might be wrongly feeling those assurances, huh? >> you know, i agree. i mean, if you look at the structure of how china has built their military the, i won't go too geeky, but they've built it up for a very powerful first strike capability. in other words, when they think things are going to the tipping point and military action is probable, they're going to attack in every domain possible. that means cyber strikes, that means utilizing the missiles they have built to destroy our

satellites, the carrier missiles that they've been building for 30 years to destroy our carriers because they realize sort of attack to wipe us out in one big blow to deter us so we wouldn't want to move forces 6-7,000 miles -- neil: sort of like the way japan was thinking when, you know, it attacked pearl harbor. we're not going anywhere. this is kind of our moment. we surprise them and strike them, we're on our way. i know it's a little bit of military apples and oranges, but do you think that chinese leadership is seriously hiking that through, that it would -- thinking that through, that it would are have a chance to defeat the united states? >> it would be pearl harbor on steroids. and, neil, you're on the right idea here because the chinese understand that they're at the tip of their military and economic power. think of it this way, by 2100 the chinese population because it's getting older and not replacing its population, will

drop from 1.4 billion to 570 million. that's a drop of two-thirds. the u.s. population because of immigration and, you know, illegal and legal -- we can debate that another time -- will actually be a little bit higher. the chinese may sur surpass us for a little while because of demographics, but the united states is right up there behind them. what i worry about is that the chinese may think this is their time, and that's scary. neil: real quickly, harry -- i love talking to you because you look at the big picture -- it looks like this was going to be the start of the year where we would eclipse the growth of china in terms of the economy. it would be the first time we were going at a faster pace than china i think since 1976. now with these back to back contracting quarters, that doesn't look likely. and the chinese seem to be in a better economic position than we are. how do you think -- forget about how we're digesting that, how they're digesting that. >> well, i think in the short

term they feel the advantage, but i think in the long term they see those demographic trends. the one thing that has driven the chinese economic and military power is having that big population, having lots of children, bringing them out of poverty. and i think next five or six years you will see the chinese bring a lot of effort to bringing those hundreds of millions on the outskirts of china9 into the cities. as hopping as the united states doesn't create a massive -- as long as the united states doesn't create a massive debt bomb -- neil: always good seeing you with, harry. have a good weekend. >> you too, thanks. neil: all right. a covid update, l.a. county, remember when they had the spikes in cases there? they were very, very close to reimposing a mask requirement. apparently, that is the off the table as number of cases are have begun to stabilize, but the cdc is apparently looking at new jersey a tad differently saying there have been enough spikes in

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neil: you know, americans love air show, and the largest one is going on in wisconsin right now. commercial airline executives like to go to these things too because they think they can find future pilots. grady trimble there with more. grady. >> reporter: hey, neil. yeah, half a million people here including young kids with their parents. those are people aha all of major airlines are here to try to attract, convince them that that becoming a pilot amid this pilot shortage is a good career option. we talked to to a captain with united airlines who came here when she was 8 years old with her dad. that inspired her to become a pilot, and now she's trying to inspire the next generation. listen. >> for many, many year with we've had -- years we've had the honor of having an overwhelming number of very highly qualified applicants. and now we just immediate to make sure that the -- need to make sure that the next generation sees what a fantastic career this is. >> and we are here so that the

youth of tomorrow kind of see us and want to fly our awesome aircraft and want to join the military. >> reporter: the airlines are here, the military is here trying to recruit, and we had the opportunity of a lifetime while we were here in oshkosh as well. we went up with the aerobatic team in a world war ii era t-6 plane used for training back then. we did a loop and a barrel roll. personally, my first time going upside down in a plane intentionally, and we do fly a lot, but i've never done anything like this. they told us we pulled 4gs, four times force of gravity. they are part of the air show here, and they also are former commercial pilots trying to encourage the next generation, the next crop of young people to enter aviation whether as a pilot or a mechanic because the airlines need both of those jobs to be filled right now, neil. neil: incredible.

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♪♪ it's friday friday ♪♪ got to get down on friday ♪♪ neil: indian the weekend a month on bullish notes. it has been a strong month,

strongest month we've seen in a couple years with the dow up 67% to the nasdaq up close to 12%. you will be hearing more from ray dahlio for his take on what to make of these markets and washington demanding rich guys like him and others with more cash, he's open to it but with a huge caveat coming up later. keeping a close eye on where some of this legislation is going on capitol hill, hard to vote on anything because so many women, senators have been stricken, and our chief editor, >> i used to be a baseball

manager for this, congress is a lot like baseball and democrats found themselves losing early to the gop in congressional baseball game last night. >> it ain't over until it is over. >> that's precisely why democrats are trying to rally to pass attacks package with climate provisions next month but there could be issues with the senate. >> stringing people along, can't worry about the senate, the senate will do what is going to do. but you're confident that's going to happen. >> yes. >> senator joe manchin said the gop is tarring his tax and spending plan due to election year politics, speaking from covid quarantine, gives his plan a chance. >> i hope my republican friends will look at this bill, it will

take time to look at the bill and what is really in it. it will have to be all politics to be opposed to it. i hope they would look at it with clear lenses. >> here's the problem for democrats. they need all 50 of their members on board to pass the bill, use a filibuster exempt process called reconciliation but dick durbin is out with covid, patrick leigh he is recovering from two surgeries, there is no remote voting in the senate. >> it made life harder in a 50/50 senate but we have to persevere. >> if kristen sinema is a no, democrats strike out. democrats never rallied in the game last night, they were stumped 10-love. neil: we are plowing through

earnings season. how are things looking? >> reporter: companies are cautious but it is the last trading day of the month. we talk about the bullish note, the dow up 6% for the month and the s&p up 8% and the nasdaq composite 11% for the month and earnings season has something to do with this. numbers look good and apple was a representation of that, earnings came out after the bell, company beat on revenue and profit and expect growth to accelerate but did acknowledge there will be pockets of softness. the company didn't give formal guidance, indication of uncertainty ahead but better than expected results in a challenging operating environment according to the cfo is a positive for the iphonemaker. big oil reported exxon and chevron reported record profits.

oil prices are elevated due to concerns about global supply. we are off the most recent peak, but west texas intermediate around one hundred dollar mark. it was a hit earlier today, now it is at 9933 and average price per gallon of regular at the pump down to $4.25 according to aaa. it would be adult friday, elon musk was trending down, more chesler commodity prices trending down than up. having said that it looks like we will close july with pretty good numbers and they said selling may go away, didn't happen this year. neil: i didn't know fwiw stands for what it's worth? maybe you can help me explore this lol thing i hear from kids today.

you guys and this internet social media thing taking the world by storm, dick is former stock exchange chairman and ceo with a good read of the markets and where the country is going, always a pleasure to see you. a lot of tension and concerns, china, nancy pelosi, the government spending thing and these markets, here they are climbing the wall of worries. what do you think of it? >> we have to remember in every down cycle in the market there will be rally is so the question prevailing, is this a bottoming process and will the market head backup, or is it a bounce? i think the earnings numbers we have seen this month and in the last couple days particularly

from apple and google suggest the bottoming process is a real one. however, very large however and i complement you on your excellent interview with ray dalia. when you pour money into the economy and just look at the reconciliation bill and the chips bill which are on the table we are looking at $1 trillion worth of new money potentially coming into the market. that is going to impede if not accelerate inflation, not curb inflation and the warning signals are out. you and i remember the way paul volcker, the inflation cycle 40 years ago, that breaking get of

inflation caused long-term government bond to be 153/4 of one%. we are a long way from that. stuart: i am wondering, the biting picks up and seems to find that is the market, positive news and even bad news when big companies disappoint they look at a pocket of growth, amazon could be cloud activity, apple, could be that they are selling a lot of iphones though not as much of other stuff so they are predisposed to look at the half full glass. don't know how long that lasts but what do you make of it? >> you've known me a long time. i am a perennial bull. this is a cycle, it is a vicious one and people are spinning the numbers to meet their political objectives. the reality, you wouldn't expect any of the current

administration to use the dreaded our word but the reality is 2 quarters of consecutive gdp contraction by all economic measures is indeed a recession. they point to the strong jobs numbers, peeled and onion back and ask yourself the question how many jobs that have been created are people taking second jobs because they can't support a family on their first job? how many of those? >> we both lived through the 70s and sound like two guys, having said that i am wondering whether we are tying ourselves to the stagflation period prematurely. it is tempting but i think this is not at all like that period.

i remember no a backdrop of job gains at all, no jobs period and i remember you had that combined with hyperinflation as well and i'm just beginning to think it is possible down the road to see the stag part of this become an issue but are the markets jumping not that they are the greatest barometer but are they jumping because they think the federal reserve won't have to go crazy and get as high as the 15%, 16% because they will be able to pad this down before rates get much higher? what do you think? >> markets are forward-looking and measurements of gdp are backwards looking. the thing is we have an opportunity given a sane amount of spending to stimulate but

not to create a flame under the cost of maintaining a family. ask yourself a question. if you are a cop or a fireman making 100 grand a year and raising 3 kids and look at gas and fuel and they don't care how we define what is or isn't, what they are going to pay at the pump or at the grocery check out and our leadership in washington, not to speak to one or and other side of the aisle, our leadership has got to start talking to the people that i am talking about, cops, firemen, construction workers, people making $100-$150,000 a year and have seen gasoline double, have seen chicken go up one hundred%, beef go up 70% or 80% and that's the target audience

and i do think, come back to your question, can we come out of it? absolutely. but we've got to take a reasoned approach to how we stimulate as opposed to throwing money at goods and services. right now for congress, both sides of the aisle, both houses of congress have got to step back and start talking to the american people as a whole, not the people in silicon valley, not people -- the people in middle america and ask a question, what do you need and that's what they've got to deliver. i was disappointed senator manchin signed on to this reconciliation bill because senator manchin is going to have to go back to west virginia and explain the taxes

in this bill applicable to coal production. it's going to have some interesting dialogue with his constituents. stuart: you are right about that. former chairman and ceo, never forgot his roots. some people have done big success stories and a lot of money but they forget where they came from, he never did. pick was mentioning west virginia and what is going on. in view of the climate change measure, there are a number of banks in west virginia that aren't too keen on what a number of major banks are doing on that front. connell mcshane is next. ♪♪

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neil: climate change the huge issue. not in keeping with many of his wall street peers. connell mcshane on how in west virginia it is district.

>> you talk about joe manchin taking the side of pushing climate change at his state pushing back the other way, not the first time we've seen estate go after wall street but this is a first in that you have banks being cut off because of the push to fight climate change and big names, black rock, goldman sachs, jpmorgan, wells fargo, not going to be banned from doing business with the state of west virginia. >> we have financial institutions boycotting our industries so to hanauer dollars over to them which are generated from coal and gas and oil, there's a conflict of interest so we are not going to pay for our own destruction. >> reporter: the treasurer sent letters to 6 institutions saying u.s. bancorp was able to argue it does not actually boycott fossil fuels, he says the others do not in his view although i will say they tried to in statements provided to

us, the decision is shortsighted and disconnected from the facts, that's what jpmorgan said. morgan stanley says it does not boycott fossil fuel energy companies. wells fargo values its relationship with first -- west virginia and our client and we disagree with the decision, black rock issued a similar statement and if you think of it it's ceo larry fink has taken a leading role in the wall street push towards more socially conscious investing. goat goldman sachs did not respond to our requests for comment about from the bank's side the one banking official in our reporting told us, pointed us towards this analysis that was done suggesting west virginia's decision might be risky saying a similar move in texas to ban banks refusing to fund gun manufacturers has backfired because of reduced banking competition and here's his response. >> any downside risk, usa could

change their policy, their top 5 largest bank in the country, we do business with truest and the they are the sixth largest bank in the country and we will have no breaks in terms of our operations, total continuity of operation in the treasury and state government. >> is confident the banks will step up and see if this as an opportunity to do more business in west virginia. neil: a complicated mess, very good at explaining what is going on. it is getting more crazy by the minute. thank you, connell mcshane, following all of that. whatever you make of the climate change push congress is trying to cobble together, ray is worried not about the climate push but the spending and whether it will do the job. it's a big issue for him and says it should be a big issue for the world after this.

>> we will face a lot of cost, the cost of clean energy attempt is -- the cost of social programs is costly, the cost of building the defense adequately is very costly, the cost of inefficiencies which come from the fact that there is independence and self-sufficiency is in all these things is costly. and the way it works is simple. you will run a deficit and you will either tax it from people are printed.

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neil: ray dahlia doesn't want to be a politician but some want him to run for office for his clarity and smart and the fact that he's good at making

money even at a time when it is impossible to make money or it would seem this crazy year for the markets. his associates, the flagship fund at the hedge fund giant is up 32% for the first half of this year. how is that possible? that's another story for another time, we will be exploring that on our fox business website, his view on the push for climate change, he is all in on that but not quite sure the latest attempt is the answer. >> i'm just a mechanic, not an ideological -- what i am describing here is the fact that there is a limited amount of time and enormous cost. the technologies have not been

t nostnon n n vepmenpm otfosst alsls lsso ocreacrppte dlyand.lyanlyay a ot h hccom hccisplinplpl der r changean sinam sscientifly.ly neil: the administration approaches don't look at fossil fuels. >> that is costly. i am saying the bill, how much money -- neil: before going all in on all types of energy? >> i'm telling you what the costs are. okay? what your preferences for society as a whole to decide on its particular preferences but there is i am saying we will face a lot of costs. the costs of clean energy attempt is very costly. the cost of social programs is

very costly. the cost of building defense adequately is very costly. the cost of inefficiencies which come from independence and self-sufficiency is in all these things is very costly. neil: who pays that cost? >> it is simple. you will run a deficit and you will either tax it from people or print it. because you have the money. taxing it is very difficult. just speaking mechanics because you are taking it away from somebody and nobody wants to have a take away. neil: they want to take it from the wealthy. what do you think of that? >> i am a mechanic. neil: a very wealthy mechanic. >> i believe people like us if

we are not investing in the education of our children and let the infrastructure go down and continue to print money and living in a way which is wasteful we will pay a terrible cost. the most important thing is are we investing in things that will make us productively competitive. you can't give away money. you can only invest in those are those things. education -- neil: we have money to invest. >> you have to get it one place or another, tax me and so on but make it productive. neil: wall street when you say stuff like that. >> most people would say it depends how it is spent. they don't understand. a lot of people in private understand. is it going to be spent productively?

because you have to produce productivity. if you don't produce productivity you can't eat money, you can produce money but can't eat money. money isn't wealth. what is wealth is productivity. neil: let me step back, you talked about three big themes. we are in a world, there are extreme differences piling up everywhere. what are the big things you look at that they are watching, what do you see? >> i've seen this play out like watching a movie over and over again. there are three classic big things, the financial. are you on sound financial footing selling more than you are earning. the you have the internal conflict?

is there the differences we talk about, the wealth differences or is the country of equal opportunity? i was lucky i grew up in a country of equal opportunity and historically where does it come from? do you have that are of a conflict? when you have the two combined it is a combustible combination because when you have a financial challenge and at the same time like bad stagflation and at the same time a lot of conflict, you see the dynamic, the polarity. you saw in the french revolution, the cuban revolution and so on, that worries me and if you are not strong relative to the outside opponents and outside competitors that's a dangerous situation.

i see those things, the financial, internal conflict and external conflict as risky things and yet we have the power. let me tell you the goods part of this. we are more inventive than we have ever been. the world is more inventive, technology, artificial intelligence, the ability to come up with vaccines and so on. if you can work well together to deal with this together and you avoid the conflict and you are responsible like your parents raised you, are you going to have the basics of those things? if you do those things you will, the world can have a better than ever life but we have these risks, financial risks and external conflict. stuart: does it make you worry about the world?

looking at sweeping history, we are repeating some bad history, we are in that phase that makes me think we are at the end of the british empire? >> nothing is predestined. i have a principal. if you worry, you don't have to worry and if you don't worry you need to worry because if you worry, if i can help people think is this logical? should we worry about it? than the worrying will let us make sure those things don't happen, can we work together as our country and the bipartisan way and look at the consequences of not doing that? investing in the things like education and infrastructure, investments, can we not go to war externally?

because if we know what those are like and what vote worry is like and avoid those things we will have a better future. neil: a good leader comes along when you least expect it, you can argue you were nobody growing up, our caddie, multibillionaire, we seem to find the right people when we most need it. can we find it now? looking at that list, someone out there you see? >> there is a possibility of it but let me explain what i mean by the possibility, i am not -- i am not -- the question is can

our population elect a president of the united states, a president that represents the majority of people? look at that analytically. depending how you define extremism 25% or 30% of the population is fairly extreme to the right and 15% or so is fairly extreme of the left, their dominant, very forceful within their parties, we see in the parties we are getting a tendency for more extremism. moderates, what each side wants is fighters for them to win at all costs, that dynamic is producing that. can we get a strong leader of the middle who will bring the country together? i don't have any unique insight. we can reverse the question.

neil: whoever it is would have to win buyer landslide. >> the middle, let's take those percentages. 40% of the population would be fairly extreme, 60% of the population is still relatively moderate and as we think that there is no platform for the middle, no candidate in the middle in a sense and analytically that is the question. do we agree we need somebody to bring our country together and to be strong? second, that we are together and do the right things and those will be difficult things, people won't like those things, can we have somebody do that? you're asking me the probably, you can assess the probability as well as i can but that is what the mechanics are like what would you say? it is probable? it is not probable but it is possible. i hope we do.

neil: very good seeing you. good luck with this money thing, see how it works out. i had asked about running for office number before i got the question out, no! his principles from your books, how this principle theme like principles dealing with the changing world order, life and work or success, to put it in perspective a lot of these veer into videos on youtube and the very latest, close to 20 million people have heard him and his views on life, on infesting. think about that figure that is bigger than the kardashians or shakira or any of these dance

videos that pop up on tiktok, this is a guy who is generally issues a lot of these venues but is bigger than all these other players on these venues. that is clout, that is class, that is ray dahlio. more after this. so you know all you need for recovery. and you are? i'm an investor...in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to... nasdaq 100 innovations like... wearable training optimization tech. uh, how long are you... i'm done. i'm okay. ♪ if you shop at walmart, you get it. ♪ you're not just getting by. ♪ you're getting the most out of what you've got.

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likely to have inflation for a long time and basically saying in order for the fed to give investors of bonds a real return, not a fake return you have to raise interest rates dramatically and sounded like he didn't think they were going to go there, the fed goes and addresses inflation where the economy may bounce back but inflation stays above its 2% number which means they've got to keep going back to the well with these small rate hikes that will slow down the economy but won't quash inflation totally, the 1970s all over again. he did say this is what happened in the 70s.

the fed would take a strong hand raising rates to quash inflation. you would have the economy improve but inflation out-of-control eating through whatever improvement and then go back and do it again and volcker said enough, we are going to take interest rates way up, going to steep recession, reagan did stuff to increase the supply side at the same time so we got out of that within two years. charles: you need a 1-2 punch, paul volcker stamping out inflation, ronald reagan comes in and you've got a battered economy afterwards and the tax cuts, we know the rest of that. what else are you following? >> we are following what's going on with the gop and a massive crackdown, whether it is the regulatory state or in

congress against anything china use, you pick your term, the chinese through social media apps or apps, trading apps are stealing information from us consumers and giving them to china for espionage purposes. we've done that, and pressuring apple and google, and he wants the sec security and exchange commission to go after two companies, lulu and web bull, chinese trading apps. on the same suspicions they are using us data and giving it to the chinese government. whether this goes anywhere i can't tell you. gary gensler rarely registers

anything the gop says when it is in the minority but the gop gets in the majority this will get interesting because they will have hearings with gary gensler on his whole agenda including what he's doing to crackdown on us information by chinese firms but also look for google and apple to come under pressure because these apps are automatically allowed into the apps stores. sometimes like tiktok you get it automatically and the other ones you can download obviously so they may go to the source and get apple and google to not allow these companies on their platform so if and when the gop gets the majority in the house and maybe the senate this will be a huge issue in this is just the dry run. by the way great interview with him, i did enjoy it. >> just because you change parties doesn't mean your annulus stocked.

charles: the gop is not friends of big tech anymore. they wasted that on them, becoming so woke and canceling conservatives, that train is done, whatever cliché that is. neil: good thing you were never woke. >> some ask my political affiliation, i don't know but i know one thing about me i am not woke. neil: if my viewers stay awake, set a low bar, good seeing you, have a safe weekend, you are the best, you're looking at them. a lot more coming up including the dow at session highs, racing to complete one of the best months in years, we will have more after this.

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>> welcome back to cavuto coast-to-coast. 17 migrants and 13 children found in stash houses in washington dc along with cocaine, they cannot comment, they say they disrupt and dismantle the transnational

criminal organizations involving human smuggling. buses arrive in the capital city offloading migrants block from lawmakers offices, a situation mayor muriel bowser has deemed humanitarian crisis. migrants were seen sleeping overnight outside union station, temperatures reached 90 one degrees last night. now bowser is calling in the national guard and expects fema, the us military and president biden to get involved. >> we need the federal government to be involved. they want to deal with a humanitarian crisis. how we expect to escalate the number of people crossing the border seeking asylum, we expect to only go up. >> reporter: the pentagon is working on it. they tell fox news, quote, the secretary takes the request for assistance seriously.

the white house is blaming republicans for the crisis. >> republicans using migrants as a political tool and that is shameful and that is wrong. >> reporter: this as the department of homeland security reports people who crossed the southern border illegally without being detained by border patrol since october. neil: a lot of the cities and towns are beginning to get an appreciation for what texas has known for years. >> goes to show bad policies lead to bad results so mayor bowser has a policy for dc, so that is a pool factor that attracts illegal aliens like having open border policy like the biden administration does

leads to millions of people illegally crossing the border so for her to call uncle with 4000 in dc is remarkable, she's not calling for it to stop but calling for more money and this will continue because they are not seeking to prevent illegal immigration in the first place. neil: how much of a game changer, governor abbott is turning the tables, we can't process all of these folks and house all these folks. we need you to share what we are dealing with, it is considered inhumane, it is -- have at it. people are not enjoying that.

>> and keep processing as many illegal aliens into the country without people noticing, what governor abbott has done by sending them north to dc and others to new york, that's what this administration does not like but in terms of the net affected is sending people north and a better practice, better policy is to prevent illegal immigration in the first place which means returning to remain in mexico, completing the border wall as requested by agents and stopping the asylum fraud that is rampant in the system. neil: a surge in migrants but no surge in the number of people necessary to deal with migrants at the border, the math is getting worse. >> this administration continues to neuter isap

civility to enforce the law, to arrest, detain, deport, they continue to cut detention beds and both ice and cvp are becoming processing agents just processing all these illegal aliens north and that is why we continue to say every town is a border town and mayors of new york city and dc are admitting it. neil: it gets worse and worse as you did predict. i want to pass along some news, very confident the two updated covid boosters will be ready by the fall, we talked with doctor anthony fauci who warned people not necessarily to wait for the new vaccines and boosters because they will address the problems but these will address the new variants. we will see after this.

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southern b.c.; and a vast pipeline of world class greenfields projects. talisker resources. neil: here's charles. charles: great stuff with ray dalio, neil. neil: thank you, my friend. charles: thank you. good afternoon, i'm charles payne, and this is "making money." the market continues to bounce with, extending a rally that began without fanfare in mid june and now has delivered the best month of the year. we are at a crossroads. lots of questions, could bear bounce be something bigger? will the fed pivot sooner rather than later? have earnings been good enough to justify higher prices?

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