have been choosing to forgo college and instead enter the trade with money without the debt, i have my fingers crossed, top gun maverick inspires the younger generation to go to flight school semi-fights to get canceled i need to get from a to b. >> air traffic controller somebody in fa. "varney & company" is right now. all the beers. stuart: good morning diggity good morning, everyone. this should the market headline has usually been about wild price with. but the bucket had died today is a little more reassuring for investors. it seems the markets are calming down a little. taking a big risk by saying that. the dow industrial app 20 points available eval. the s&p update and the nasdaq ayman al-zawahiri, greenock that much. bitcoin no reaction to the new

changebridge interest rate to .86%. gas continues a steady decline to an average $4.13. diesel same story continues the steady decline down 2 cents to $5.21. a relative calm for the markets but i know that can change fast. there is no common around taiwan ray beijing has launched about the missiles that landed in the taiwan strait and five more that landed near japan. beijing's air and naval forces established live fire zones all around the island. it look like a blockade or even innovation. the pelosi visit is over but not biden has to do with china's escalation. the new york city story that has applications all across the

country ten criminals in the city account for 500 crimes and all those criminals are out on the streets. the man says the justice system here is insane. it live golf tour, led by phil nicholson suing the pga, though challenging their suspension from the pga tour, the golf split goes to two or. there is this a drag queen performance at a high school in manhattan. it was a pride event held in the school's church. students say they were heavily pressured to drawing and. some were talking in front of the altar. we covered all of this on thursday august the fourth 2022. "varney & company" is about to begin. ♪ ♪ ♪.

stuart: there you have a very nice day, august the fourth. i want to get straight to the markets, adam johnson is with me sitting at the top of the show. i was taking a big risk. the markets are really calming down appeared to be calming down just a little. what do you say to that. >> i say that's happening for several specific reasons. number one earnings are raising 5%, number two earnings are raising 5% because people are still spending money. number three people are spending money because they are still employed. i think that's the key to this whole thing earnings and employment, we all got so negative and down and there are a lot of reasons to be negative and down. i think earnings and employment are the glue that holds this whole thing together.

stuart: is inflation moderating and is the recession just shallow? >> yes to both, we're going to get more inflation data next week. cpi if you look at the estimates it is coming down significantly whereas the month over month change, last month was three and a half they are saying 1.8. >> from three not ten to 1.8. is that why things are calming down a little. if you listen to what ceos are saying on the conference calls coming out of the second quarter earnings season, they're talking about supply chain starting to normalize, that is a huge deal they can about what we learned from walmart and target they both had inventory problems. the way over ordered because they thought it carpet gets bad we need to have staff on hand. as it turns out comey did not get batted now they don't need that stuff in the liquidating. it's what called supply chains to begin with.

if they are ordering less, it's a dog and on inventory that brought gdp down. it is all related. it's okay to feel reassured of the calming down. >> the fact that you feel reassured reassures me. it's almost a reversal where it's taking solace from the skeptic. thank you, sir. stuart: you are welcome, thank you for joining us, good to have you. more on the ongoing debate of what constitutes a recession. joe rogan has joined the debate. lauren i bet he is critical. >> effect change in the world that you're playing the game, he is critical biden and demonstration and he says your rewriting the rules when they don't work for you. >> people think it is trivial because they're talking about the economic downturn but it is not trivial, we always use that term recession, the little really changing the definition which is terrible and it should

be pushed back again to the big way. it should be something that people get angry about. your definitions to pretend that you're doing a good job. >> they're messing with a lot of definitions. what it means to be a woman in some sense. they look at the low polling numbers and they have to convince, try to convince people that what you're seeing and what your pain and reality is not real. so there changing the definition. >> will have thoughts from the white house that suggest there was anger and confusion about speaker pelosi's visit to taiwan. will cain is joining us this morning. well, good morning, i commended speaker pelosi for completing the mission and now she has left and she left president biden with a huge headache. it's his crisis to fix. >> applicable is been on the position that china does not want to have a kinetic conflict with united states of america.

they do not want to back to work, their conducting under the surface culture war in the united states very successfully. in order to avoid a kinetic war unit clarity and understand what's happening unique clear rules of the game and both adversaries both sides of the equation need to understand the other's motivation. i'm glad that speaker pelosi shows strength but clearly she's not on the same page as the biden administration she did not take a bipartisan publishing over to taiwan will need to wonder what were her motivations in her individual ambitions. why did she do this and what message has had sent to the chinese and left the biden administration, they don't want to show the same strength they want to show weakness in the face of the chinese and now we have chinese planes flying gray areas between the streets between the two countries, you have rockets being launched over taiwan all of this means it's a big witness massie and ms can occur when you don't have clarity.

stuart: the slightest crash that was unintended that can escalate rapidly. that is ongoing danger. how do you think this plays out, i'm asking you to speculate it's extremely difficult but the island is surrounded naval exercises, missiles launched, how does this play out. >> i cannot say over the short term but over the long term, here is clarity china is a geopolitical adversary, this is the cold war. marco rubio was with us on "fox & friends" this morning and he said a chinese aggression towards taiwan is inevitable. what were looking at now is a speeding up of the timeline. people are say before 2024 and perhaps the change of the administration and the united states of america. that is a longer-term ominous horizon. i know you're a sports guy. i want to talk live golf, we

have 11 golfers suing the pga the antitrust suit. a question to you how do you see live golf pga playing out. >> not peacefully, there are several golfers who are suing the pga attempting to both live in the live world and play on the two as well. >> liv is an expositional name to the threat. these are some of the best golfers in the universe. they are getting paid nine figures to go play for the saudi backed fund. i don't know the pga, we can talk about the pga, we can talk about the motivation of the liv. the pga business model does not work when there's another entity willing to pay deceptive figures to the best golfers in the

world's people and they have unlimited money. the best golfers in the world are playing on the liv to enact the pga tour, what does that do to the pga tv ratings on a sunday afternoon in the regular-season. >> the liv has to get television coverage first. this is a moral stand against the liv. that will last until capitalism has its say. stuart: thank you for joining us, your answer to question how things will play out. >> we will see if i might. stuart: only time will tell. now you've got walmart, they have announced their cutting hundreds of corporate jobs. what is behind that. >> the warning of all the prophets, now the humor comes down on the corporate side. about 200 jobs being cut across departments that according to the wall street journal. i wonder if some of these were remote workers. maybe they were coming in as much a working as hard as they should i'm speculating that we're going to find out how much ethanol the job market has slowed down we get the jobs

report. if you look at the tech sector we heard a lot about the layoffs and the slowing of hiring and the pulling of positions that were open. 32000 tech layoffs so far this year and then a networking site finds 9% of people that work intact they don't feel confident and secure in their position. >> a will to just the other day the chief executive officer, google said you better perform, perform, work harder be more efficient. >> the most cash rich and the biggest companies in the world will start ups and any other tech companies, you would be worried. >> they were the pushy as places to work. stuart: thank you, check the futures, we've got 19 minutes to go, the nasdaq at 19, the dog down to, not much movement. canada many trump backed candidates came back in the

primary races but would form a trump comeback if he ran in 2024. good question, watch this. >> the first time that i began a second time i did much better. >> what a disgrace it was that we may have to do it again. stuart: later in the show been dominance will join as he thinks trump loses in 24 if he runs. the governor for the ron desantis launched his first tv at the electorate from his constituents thanking him for keeping florida free. we will bring you the full story. i'll pack a modest increase in oil production the president didn't get what he wanted out of the saudi's. edward lawrence has that story after this. ♪

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stuart: we like to bring you the early beachgoers, that is long island 77 degrees. rhode island i got it wrong. a lot of people on the beach we keep bringing you these pictures. president biden took to saudi arabia to beg for oil but did not bear much fruit. opec plus has announced a modest increase in oil production, edward lawrence is with us. what is the white house plan now to increase oil production. >> there still asking u.s. companies to increase production there working on plan b here at the white house they did not get

what they wanted from opec plus but the release in the strategic petroleum reserve with 1 milliot runs out in september removing what the white house called the stabilizing force for gas prices. >> the petroleum reserve at the lowest level in 37 years with 1 million barrels a day, what is the plan after that. >> from my understanding i could get you more specifics we are replenishing the strategic petroleum reserve. i don't have more to share on that but i'm happy to get more information. >> the white house did reach out to be late yesterday evening and they believe u.s. oil companies will produce more oil some by the end of september. that's to a new oil refinery that was closed and coming back online in new jersey. the top economic security advisor tweaking the message from the white house admitting we need oil and gas production.

>> you have to invest today into the energy of the future. that does not mean that we believe energy transition has already ended. we're going to make it the beginning or the middle. we have to have the energy supplies today. we have enabled the oil and gas industry in the united states to increase production. we've called on the president to increase production. >> no actual changes in the regulations or restrictions of the u.s. industry, one more point you can hear this truck again i want to show you what this looks like, you can see from our perspective the check that we are dealing with is next to where i'm standing right now. back to you. >> maybe you could stand somewhere else, is that allow? >> no this is our position, this is where we go on the north on. played well against the background noise. stuart: senator kyrsten sinema is one of the holdouts to the

democrats tax-and-spend bill. what changes does she want to get on board. >> axioms is reporting three changes, she wants more money for the climate. she is from arizona and it's baking in the heat right now there are droughts, she wants more money to go to that. the current bill $370 billion is slated for the environment she wants more reportedly, other concerns the carried interest loopholes and private equity and real estate. the donors and finally 15% corporate minimum tax she wants to ensure that does not hurt workers. i would say she's being thoughtful and considerate right now but honestly she holds all the leverage. >> it would not make that much difference to the overall size and scope of the package. it would still be a tax huge spend. we need an economist. we got one his name is art

laffer into joining us this morning. what happens to the economy if taxes and spending go way up. >> of taxes and spending go way up the economy slows down especially over the very long run, this appears to every distribution where you're taking from one group and giving to another group reducing their incentives to produce in reducing the others to produce in your see that in the u.s. for the longest period of time our growth rates are slowing down we are becoming japan and it's happening very rapidly and this just adds fuel to that problem and i don't know how you undo these problems when she bitten into the apple. it's really hard to unpack this bill once it's passed. it just adds a lot of problems for the future. stuart: i think the current state of the economy we are in a shallow recession, what say you and what happens to this shallow recession just a few months down the road if we get the tax-and-spend measure.

>> let me just say i think you are correct we are in a shallow recession right now i don't know if it'll get worse or not. if this bill passes i think it would get worse. one thing that's more important in a shallow recession, we are in a secular decline in growth rates. we are moving around but the growth long-term growth rate has been diminished because of these permanent policies put into place. while we wiggle around the line the line is much, much lower than it has been. we still has less people working today than we did in february of 2020 and were 6.1 million below. stuart: how do we get out of it? >> we get out of it by reducing government spending and reducing the national debt quite substantially, cutting taxes moving to a low rate broad-based

flat tax just the way jerry brown proposed in 1992 where you get rid of all the federal taxes and the complication and other regulatory nonsense and have a low rate broad-based sound money, you need sound money, we've given it up. minimal regulation and free-trade and then you get the heck out of the way and let the economy solve its own problems. you are far better at doing what's best for your family than the government is. and that's the way that we should be, get out of the way. stuart: dream on it's not going to happen. >> that's what i thought 1978 but it did happen. i was really surprised and 7778. >> that second happened in the immediate future. >> it will in five years who. stuart: can we wait five years, art laffer thanks for getting that in. i want to check features at the top of the show things were calming down. a fairly common market down 70

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stuart: futures not that much change for stock prices so far this morning.

nasdaq up a fraction, the dow down 70, dr barton is with us this morning. i have got to talk big tech. a rebound recently, not doing too bad for this morning. are you buying anything? >> i am continuing to nibble but not right here, i like the downturn that we had the last couple of weeks in the last couple of months and we find a balance down i still like a whole bunch, i still like all of the cloud players, let's throw in their amazon, google, microsoft and in old-school company that i still like a bunch ibm. stuart: ibm, old tech. do you think the cloud rules to big tech? is that your point, pick out cloud winners and run with them? >> i think the cloud stability and growth is going to continue why the other things come and

go. that's what the places we will be able to count on if you look into the next 12 to 24 months that's going to be a continued growth spot as we saw on amazon earnings last week. stuart: does microsoft have $300 written on it it is 281 right now. >> i believe absolutely. i believe microsoft is going to continue to excel their cloud numbers flew away everyone when they reported. again another company that is doing things really well and i think over the long long-term at all the big tech companies that you and i continue to talk about, they are going to be the ones that are going to do probably the best of all of them. stuart: one more, smaller tech stock that is micron it is at $64 a share now, where is it going. >> i think it has a ton of

upside in dirty had a 45% pullback into the low 50s. if you could be patient and wait to pick up micron somewhere in the 55 - $60 range i think that's good to be a great long-term hold to play the chip cycle that has dropped and will come back. micron the fourth biggest chip companies going to be the biggest place to be. stuart: i just heard a big roar from the exchanges as trading began .

the nasdaq composite on the upside, .7%. let's have a look at big tech, apple is down, microsoft down, alphabet dow, amazon and matt are up. some big names reported before the opening bell, they include eli lilly the drug company, down what it have%. >> the profit forecast for the second time, lawmakers passed a bill capping out of pocket costs, lower covid treatments and lower cancer drug sales you have a decline in the cutout. stuart: kellogg, the serial people. >> were paying more for serial and kellogg snacks, they raise the full year numbers in the been rewarded, that is opposite of eli lilly. they can raise prices and people still buy. stuart: what do you by. >> what don't i buy.

stuart: chinos, doritos. >> all of them, we called dinner snack time now. we change the term. >> we need to talk about belltown motors. >> 's quarterly profit thanks to the sale of assets including ohio assembly line they sold to taiwan foxconn and then they said we don't need to raise as much capital this year, that is great news they reaffirmed of the electric pickup and i will start this quarter being delivered next quarter, is a 3-dollar stock but has a 12% gain. >> a lot of action in the electric vehicle including nikola which i think bought a battery maker. >> $40,140,000,000 they will make their own ev there. stuart: lucid is also an electric vehicle car and they are down 10%. >> they had the production targets for the second time, now they expect to produce 6 - $7000

this year versus the prior forecast of 20000. they've had it once and now they had it again. stuart: here's the company i never heard of a mtd digital. it's up a fraction now. >> is a digital syntax out of hong kong, the ipo here last month at $7.80. at 1100 now they went almost 1601. the company says to our knowledge there are no material circumstances that have affected the business that we know about. what is going on the error of the meme stock is still alive there being talked about on social media platforms and among reddit traders, surging 780 last month, now a mtd is at 1100. stuart: there was a breath when we said it stopped at a 70 went to thousand dollars in share, our camera guy over thousand dollars per share take a look at

the restaurant brand, they run burger king, tim horton and others. >> worldwide yes but not necessarily here in the u.s., sales were flat they were trying to fix that and also popeyes in the u.s. overall global sales of 9%. with that stock is up five. >> with toyota i think they reported a pretty big job in their profits. >> down 42% in the past year comparing quarter to quarter, they were hit by the supply chain, covid shutdown in china and rising cost what they say about cost is concerning they are huge they say material cost will go up 17% this year, with that the cost of strong demand they were able to stick to the full-year forecast on sales, their profit margins are going to take a hit. >> we have some downgrades, how about levi downgrading.

>> they were cut at morgan stanley, 19 other price target with ar now, too much inventory and the sentiment across retail after the walmart and target warning nothing specific, they just don't think many players can do well in this environment. stuart: calls who doesn't like them. >> they downgraded them to market performance and took the price target to 30 live from 60, this is pretty severe, they say they are vulnerable and that's the word that the use of the middle class spending less the middle-class wall is coming under pressure with inflation in there to pick the woman's department and kids department coming under pressure. >> there was a time when clorox could do no wrong. why are they done today. >> the forecast was pretty bad they say sales will be down for percent fiscal 2023 and they cut their profit guidance to for next year, that means they say

inflation will hit profits for all of next year. peak inflation may be there starting to cost less but not for all companies. >> you break down the earnings reports into two groups, the group which says we've got pricing power we can raise prices, they go up were looking at the effects of the recession and downgrading our future performance, those stocks go down and adding student behaviors i tell you the last time i sanitized my hands i was doing every time i touch something drink open, that affects the company by clorox it changed our behavior drastically. >> we are in business for six minutes, the dow is 90 points again at the top of the show i said things were coming down your only down .3% and that's the big board how about the dow winners procter & gamble is up there, visa, home depot and nike the top performance of the doubt as for the s&p.

et cetera et cetera et cetera. none of the big names there, nasdaq composite, netflix is doing well back to 230. in tesla, $936 a share. >> a shareholder meeting today. >> tesla is up nicely, the ten year treasury yield, that is coming down so to speak you at 2.71%, the price of gold has not done much recently it is below $1800 announced today, bitcoin holding at $23000 in share, nat gas not that much changed 1%, crude oil, nat gas down 1% could go back to oil you drop below 99 now. actively gas prices will continue to edge down. right now the national average for regular is $4.13.

in california you will pay $5.53. one texas mother calling out schools that teach critical race theory and she's threatening to sue everybody. >> is my daughter is taught crp at all i will sue you. my daughter is taught fpl at all, i will sue you. stuart: it is not just in texas, chris is leading the charge against crt he has startling reservations about the san diego school district, he is on the show. families being forced to shell out a lot more to food supplies read i'm not surprised. will break down the numbers the democrats want the irs to go into beast mode they are coming after you, gerri willis has the report right after this. ♪

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the biggest increase since 2001. they will get more if this goes through the proposal will double the capability hiring 87000

agents. stuart: 87000? i am speechless. i don't know where those people come from how do you find 87000 people. people who have been watching this very closely and familiar with the numbers the really going after enforcement more litigation criminal investigation digital asset i know you're familiar with this there get a peek into your bank account in the getting $40.56 billion just for that the democrats say the supercharged irs will go after high income tax. but i don't believe that and here's why according to the joint committee on taxation congress official scorekeeper up to 90% of the money raised will come from folks that make less than $200,000 a year. >> easier to pay it and fight the legal battle. people in that category cannot fight the labor bill because

they do not have the really expensive tax attorney that cost a pretty penny to be in court every day people cannot afford that they just don't have the resources to protect themselves for sure. stuart: the always called rich people tax cheats, some of them use legitimate deductions to lower their tax bill. >> i have to tell you experts on the irs over the years because they cover this for a long time have always told me the majority of americans want to pay their taxes, going after the tax chief does not yield a lot of money. then i could make the numbers there saying and they're going after the people there only going to make angry. >> the estimate there to begin an extra $300 billion. >> like over nine years but a lot of people complain you can get an irs agent on the phone and if supporting this money into the industry they would staff it with people who can answer honest questions. >> but money is not really going

to do exactly. >> that is the problem. >> thank you for a great report i meant to bring in larry kudlow who is angry about beast mode irs. my question who is the principal target of the irs in beast mode, is that the middle class and small business? that's what it looks like as jerry said that's at the joint tax committee is saying they are going to go after small businesses, wholly-owned proprietorships, pastors, that kind of thing, the gatt says it's going to be 200,000 or less. this is a great story this is the inflation reduction bill all. this is full beast mode this is going to be the greatest d.c. swamp creature with everything with another 87000 agents

chasing after every uber driver and stuart you are not safe, nominal of us are safe there going to chase after tv and radio broadcasters also. this is a function of the complexity of the tax system that virtually no human being can understand, honestly. if we simplify the code. if we had a simple flat tax. get rid of the deduction, get rid of the credits below marginal tax rates, there would be no tax avoidance. we would know what the laws really are and we would not need another 87000. jerry wilson is right there never going to collect exit $200 billion loan. it's never going to happen and never does. i've seen this movie before. think of this i want to go back you will remember, maybe everybody will lois lerner and

the obama years, she was an obama political operative who spent her time in the irs going after persecuting conservative groups, religious groups, pro-life groups, the exact same thing is going to happen eventually they had to fire her put her on administrative leave and she fled washington before the dogcatcher could get her. this is absolute insanity, this would be the biggest d.c. swamp creature we've ever seen and it's awful. >> i knew you were going to say that i'm pleased you say on the show. i presume you were pita at 4:00 o'clock this afternoon on your own show with "kudlow" this afternoon at four. it is great stuff. it really worries me when the irs goes into beast mode that's a good word to you, i'll see you later this afternoon, thank you.

always appreciate it. the legal fight between the saudi back golf circuit and the pga tour is growing 11 golfers against the pga, madison all work brings us the details coming up shortly. are you planning a trip to disney world? you may want to rethink prices have skyrocketed begin to break down those numbers after this. ♪ ♪ ♪♪ i got into debt in college and, no matter how much i paid, it followed me everywhere. so i consolidated it into a low-rate personal loan from sofi. get a personal loan with no fees, low fixed rates, and borrow up to $100k. sofi. get your money right. your shipping manager left to “find themself.” leaving you lost. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates

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i've tried all different types of pills, so i was skeptical about anything working because it never did. but look what golo has done. look what it has done. i'm in a size 4 pair of pants. go golo. (soft music) stuart: film the colson and ten other liv golfers are suing the pga tour. on what grounds are they suing and what do they want. >> they filed an antitrust they say this is anticompetitive behavior, this back-and-forth between the pga tour and liv this is as juicy as golf get it is fascinating. 11 golfers including phil mickelson and bryce are claiming that the league is anticompetitive because the pga tour has suspended their ability

to play and to advance especially the playoffs three within that group are seeking a temporary restraining order they have qualified for the playoffs but the pga tour announced they would not be able to participate if the judge grants them release, they will be able to play in the playoffs starts next week. i got to ask one of the golfers if he thought the pga could coexist. here's what he had to say. >> right now were plated on reaching 14 events in the years coming there is plenty of time to play other events in the big marquee event and supporting other tournaments. i hope we can coexist. i think everybody would really want that. >> we restricted the pga tour and they redirected us to the statement saying it was an attempt to use the tour platform to promote themselves into free ride on your benefits and efforts to allow reentry

compromises the two in the competition to the detriment of our organization, our players and our partners in our fans. here is the thing this is not the only group that is questioning the pga tour the department of justice has launched their own antitrust investigation. it's a series of events after series of events. liv has been three tournaments at all think it's anywhere to be done. stuart: the pga seems to be very nervous and angry and hostile and i think they feel threatened. >> the organization is over 100 years old and the first time they have competition. stuart: i put money on liv winning. they will exist side-by-side. >> if you have huge names like nicholson you could not ignore liv. liberty seen success with a couple months of being in the public eye. part of the controversy is the saudi support but they have the funding and the money that

really helps. >> next is streaming partner. good stuff, thank you. check the markets open for 25 minutes and the dow is down 35 and the nasdaq is up 18. like i said fairly calm. still ahead florida senator rick scott, katie pavlich, chris all in the 10:00 o'clock hour which is next. ♪ this thing, it's making me get an ice bath again. what do you mean? these straps are mind-blowing! .. able training optimization tech.

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- [announcer] call aag, the country's number one reverse mortgage lender. - call the number on your screen. we are showing or playing that song because we are the champions. i believe we are. >> making me feel like a champion this morning. stuart: i'm not going to spell it out but we are doing rather well. we do appreciate it. 10:00 eastern, to the money, dow down if the, nasdaq up 31. like i said an hour ago not much change. prices, the 10 year treasury

yield coming in at 2.68% for the price of oil below $90 a barrel, watch out gas prices, with oil at $89 you can expect gas prices to come down and average below $4 a gallon, as for bitcoin, $23,080 per coin. just after 10:00 eastern mortgage rates up or down? lauren: the froth is coming off the housing market, 4.99% last week down from the week prior when -- back under just barely under 5%. 30 year fixed according to freddie mac. stuart: switching gears i want to talk to thousand 24, ben dominic is here, you said trump would lose in 2024 if he runs. however about -- you are laughing. a lot of trump backed candidates just won their primaries.

he loses if he runs in 24? >> it is so funny. a lot of people are reluctant to put their money where their mouth is but i am opposed to people playing coy and that's why i make the production that i do. i don't think these losses anyway will conflict with the idea the republican party is now party that is increasingly trumpian but one of the things we've seen is a real desire as we saw in a number of different conversations i have had across the country and i'm sure you are hearing as well, fox coverage in arizona of the rally is that was going to happen but so many voters are ready to move on the kind of generation of leadership we've had in america for a long time. age will be a significant factor going into the 2024 election. we've seen the challenges president biden has faced as

the oldest president in american history and donald trump is someone a lot of people view him as someone they were proud to support, accomplished a great deal, would defend and are happy everything he accomplished about ready to move to a new generation of leadership. someone in ron desantis they can go to who represent a lot of the same things as a real challenge. stuart: let's suppose that he was the nominee, trump was the nominee and ran into thousand 24, which of the democrats could he not be? kamala harris? joe biden? peter buttigieg? >> no democrat can feel confident about 2,024 against anyone. not to say you can pick any random republican out of the hat to be them but at this stage their party is heading in a sour direction and they have such a weak bench of support that i think donald trump could

wind that should he be the nominee but i also think there is a desire in the country generally to move on and to have a forward-looking generational shift in terms of leadership and that is something that will come in 2024. stuart: is the republican party a populist party, has gone too far down the populist road? >> i think that is not the case. one of the things that has happened in this is interesting is the establishment and the business community has made peace with the fact that they have to compromise with populists to advance their cause, you see that in so many senate primary elections, missouri is a perfect example, you have someone there in eric schmidt who won as one of the erics being backed by donald trump but also a moderate record as a state senator, that is is a sign that basically the establishment republican donor class and the like is basically saying we will

tolerate a certain amount of optimism as long as we find way to move forward on taxes and trade we are comfortable with. stuart: thanks for joining us, see you again soon. i want to turn to the republican primary for governor of arizona. it is a real close race, isn't it? lauren: too close to call. the former tv anchor declared victory over the pens backed karen taylor robeson, 46. 2, forty four. 4% there, so close, what is that? 11,000 votes their? they are still counting the votes that were cast early so here's the thing, the winner faces katie hobbs, a democrat who campaigned and called the recount in 2020 a threat to democracy. the irony is if robeson sees a jump as they are still counting the votes you can have her saying it is fraud so she comes

out, even though do so close, declares victory, some people are saying that since the narrative or the stage for her to say 2,020 was stolen, something that she says, we can say fraud this time around. >> i hate to see it, rehashing the 2020 election. the governor of florida ron desantis is just launched his first tv ad ahead of his reelection campaign. what have you got? >> is an reading letter sent to him by constituents thanking him for what he has done for florida. >> dear governor desantis, i wanted to write and thank you for working so hard for the citizens of florida. thank you for keeping florida free. >> raised one hundred $25 million the cycle, nearly ten times his democratic challenger charlie crist. he's got the money, got the popularity. >> is announcement is supposed to come around about now,

supposed to throw the liberal media into a meltdown, that is what he said, haven't gotten announcement yet but we are waiting for it. >> he was invited on the view. stuart: and he didn't go. >> they personally attacked him so severely but the view now wants him on because he is a potential presidential candidate and they want him on the record and get to know him. why should he? but i think he will at some point. >> back to the not much price movement stock market, there you have a, nasdaq up 37, dow down 39, david barnson with me now. our markets just, fairly slow price movement, our markets brushing off inflation and recession just brushing it off? >> they spent a lot of the your pricing in different things and you've got to look at the bond market to know what's markets think about inflation, gold prices haven't moved in over a

year, the 10 year is 2. 7%, the commodity prices are rolling over. i think the bond market thinks we've seen the worst of inflation and the stock market is priced in a lot of the bad news. stuart: there you have it, study as she goes. we like to hear your dividend pics. always like to get high yield and make some money without too much risk. you start with gilead sciences, why do you like them? >> they are paying 5% and i want to point out when the market is flat, steady as she goes, dividends stocks are still paying, people are still getting a return from the income and dividends even when prices aren't all over the place, gilead had a great earnings result the other day, stock was up a few% yesterday, they have great diversified portfolio drug, hiv, cancer, they did $2.5 billion of their covid treatment last quarter so gilead is a great company with

a lot of cash on the balance sheet. stuart: and 5% dividend. how about metlife? >> metlife is up this morning nicely, they have a 3.2% dividend. the stock is up 80% from its covid bottom but is flat now for the last year. they don't like it when the yield curve comes like this so that is why i like it, the yield curve will stephen and these insurance company's make a lot of money when that happens and you have a conservative company paying 3.2% and growing. stuart: we like to hear it is growing. thanks for joining us, see you again soon. thanks a lot. i want to take a look at coin base, that is moving up 22%. lauren: black rock, a crypto trading partnership targeting institutional alliances that have a lot of money during crypto winter. something else is happening in crypto, how bad is this winter

because you have bitcoin michael stabler of michael strategies who owns the most bitcoin of anybody comes tipping down, the chairman wants to focus more on bitcoin strategy. begging the question is the crypto winter fraught? stuart: what a move. and ebay, up or down, 5%. lauren: several brokerages, price targets. and the consumer overall is falling down. how often will -- do something expensive now. stuart: on the prompter it says yeti, that is a stock, we used to call them vacuum flasks.

why is it down 16? lauren: they cut their guidance. if you have one yeti do you need another? if you have one cooler do you need another? that is a discretionary category so they cut sales expectations for the year. stuart: people do that. one of whom is. stuart: fox news -- lauren: i brought that for you. i have a few, we engrave all of them. stuart: the cost of shipping containers, skyrocketed since the pandemic and has gone up a lot. 1000%. lauren: to ship a 40 foot container. it went from look at that, pre-pandemic $2,400, peak of covid, $24,000. the company says there average

contract, is more than it was last year. they are profitable, really profitable. and and move $12 million a year. stuart: didn't he -- and and pass that along to the customers. one article compared to a drug cartel. harsh words but very profitable. stuart: thank you very much indeed. now this, the grace church high school in manhattan, new york caters to the sons and daughters of the rich, tuition is over 50,000 a year for the elites, the school imposes and enforces a progressive agenda. recently the school invited a

drag queen to perform as part of pride celebrations. she danced in an orange and blue dress and sank somewhere over the rain. a private school can do what they like but i would like to make a couple points. the event was held in the school's episcopal church. some students joined in her dancing and were torquing in front of the altar. that means and in your face disrespect for christianity. second some students were pressured to join in the dancing, compelled to demonstrate support. one said there was, quote, tons of social pressure to dance along and pretend that this was normal for church. diversity of viewpoint not allowed. it is a private elite i school if the parents are okay with all of this, so be it, they made a choice but they should remember they got where they are, rich and successful, where

diversity of opinion created a prosperous society. still ahead, or people turning to food banks as inflation makes it harder to afford groceries. the president of feeding america, keeping up with the surge in demand. the us and iran will resume nuclear talks today in vienna. florida senator rick scott says president biden needs to stop appeasing the world's largest state sponsor of terror. china's military launching live fire exercise all the way around taiwan just hours after speaker pelosi left. the rising tension is next. ♪♪

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stuart: china has begun its live fire exercises in six areas all around taiwan and a source tells fox beijing could invade taiwan before the presidential election in 2024. >> reporter: taiwan is under fire or at least the area around it a day after speaker pelosi's visit, china conducted unprecedented long-range live fire precision missile strikes on selected targets in the waters near taiwan. taipei saying 11 missiles were launched today, the drills, the largest ever in that area clearly in response to pelosi up stop, china claims taiwan as its own. some of the six target zones overlap taiwan's maritime

border and are close to its coastline, china had threatened to fire missiles over the island through its airspace, taiwan is on high alert, its military on the move, the exercises last four days include chinese ships, planes, helicopters, taiwan calls the drills irresponsible, illegitimate, invasion of its territorial space, shipping in the region disrupted. the uss ronald reagan aircraft carrier continues to steam through water southeast of taiwan, secretary blinken warns against aggressive military behavior. that military behavior could be impacting other countries as well, japan saying chinese missiles landed and what it calls exclusive economic zone. pretty big area but according to beijing, more days of this. stuart: can't wait.

here is a look at china's military exercises. some are within taiwan's territorial waters and airspace. brent, taiwan is encircled. is this a practice for a blockade or pure intimidation? >> a little bit of both. the chinese leadership in beijing, uniform military, have said as much on chinese military that this is a dress rehearsal for how they would actually operate to blockade taiwan. it is political posturing. stuart: what is this ironclad defense, speaker pelosi's words, for taiwan that speaker pelosi was talking about? >> a lot less to be done, there's certainly a lot the biden team looks to do to take lessons from ukraine but there needs to be a strong diplomatic -- make clear the initiative

that what china is doing is escalatory and overblown for the actions that have been taken, but underneath all this there needs to be an acceleration and step up in arms sales given to taiwan specifically harpoon missiles like you saw used in ukraine and javelin missiles, they have been delayed. stuart: if we were to supply harpoon weapons would that be considered clearly escalation, would you be escalating the crisis if you did that? what is the chinese response going to be? >> all eyes are on ukraine. the systems are expensive and the chinese know that from a military perspective. the range is limited. taiwan does have similar weapon systems already.

this would augment and improve the capabilities they have, long-standing us policy to match the cherry threat from mainland china to keep them in the terry balance table. stable. stuart: the bottom line i am looking for. is our response, diplomatically and militarily forceful enough? >> not yet. it needs to be more explicit and sustained for quite a long time, not just a few talking points at press briefings. it needs to be sustained and backed up with military presence quietly for many months to come. stuart: what is your judgment of the president's performance thus far? >> the military presence has been somewhat surprising and the diligence, a persistent carrier strike group presence which has been a challenge and right now you have a reagan strike group, two amphibious

ready groups off of them. here where i am visiting, the lincoln strike group on its way. there's quite a lot of force. stuart: always appreciate it. the white house is lobbying democrats to stop a bill that would deepen ties with taiwan. >> the bill was formally designated taiwan as a major non-nato ally and provide security aid to the tune of $4.5 billion, sends a message the us is willing to defend taiwan and democracy as china feels emboldened. blue on the white house is not prepared to do that? >> they don't want to pivot from their decades long strategy of ambiguity towards taiwan, don't want to ruffle any feathers as china is firing

ballistic missiles around the waters of taiwan after speaker pelosi's visit. they don't want to ruffle feathers so they think bob menendez wrote a great piece defending why this should happen, he is a democrat, the white house is not ready to go this far. stuart: thanks. moving on. we have an update on the britney griner case, russian prosecutors are asking her to be sentenced to 9 years in jail. the verdict is expected to be delivered in 20 minutes. griner was arrested for possession of cannabis oil. we will stay on this one. the markets not moving much, the dow industrials down 80, nasdaq down three. still ahead, the happiest place on earth may be the priciest, tickets for disney world have jumped 4000% since 50 years ago. we will tell much it will cost now. chuck schumer wants to put the

inflation reduction act to a vote by the end of this week. florida senator rick scott says this will launch an all-out war on see years. the senator joins us next. ♪♪ rivers and oceans by travel and leisure, as well as condé nast traveler. but it is now time for us to work even harder, searching for meaningful experiences and new adventures for you to embark upon. they say when you reach the top, there's only one way to go. we say, that way is onwards. viking. exploring the world in comfort.

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stuart: market still marked moving, nasdaq down 14. lauren is looking at the big movers and bookings is moving big. lauren: it is the consumer theme, they will travel as much or spend as much. stuart: the outlook in the recession environment is not good and stock goes down. lauren: shake shack same reason as booking, they are weakening at the end of the quarter in the month of june, we feel some impact, with consumer patterns and inflation. stuart: let's go back to crocks. they are down 12%.

lauren: a bad outlook. don't feel bad for crocks, in the past six days, 30% giving it back today. stuart: just letting this come to us, florida's governor desantis announced he is suspending the state attorney, the soros backed andrew warren due to neglect of duty. here's what desantis just said about this. state attorneys have a duty to prosecute crimes as defined in florida law, not to pick and choose which laws based on his personal agenda. judge susan lopez will lead the office through the transition. this is the announcement the governor said would lead to a liberal media meltdown. haven't seen the meltdown. senate majority leader chuck

schumer looking to hold a vote on the inflation reduction act by this legal of this week. senator rick scott joins me now. does this have to be completed by friday night. it is thursday morning already. >> i don't think they are ready. the name of this should be the war on seniors act. since biden got elected, seniors all over florida saying i can't afford the gas or the food or my rent so they are delaying retirement, coming out of retirement, taking second jobs and with this new bill they will cut $280 billion out of medicare come out of medicare, that will be good for seniors somehow, less likely by saving drugs, increased tax burden and gas prices up, this is just a war on seniors, let's remember biden cutting medicare

when he was in the senate, doesn't surprise me biden is doing this but a war on seniors hurts a state like florida. stuart: does it have to be done and voted on by tomorrow night or can it be extended into september or something? >> it can be extended as long as they can keep people here to vote for it so the issue that schumer has is do something at the last minute, this is where we go on recess and try to force everybody to stay here. we don't know what is in this bill or what the bill text is. it will be 700, don't expect us to vote on it an hour after it comes out so we will see what happens but what frustrates me is they hurt the seniors in my state and they are hurting seniors all over the country and why do they want to do this? less life-saving drugs? why do they want higher taxes on gas? why do they want tax rates or

tax burden to go up. stuart: why are they doing this? >> there working for the radical left trying to satisfy the radical left and don't care about seniors, don't care about working people, keeping people alive, democrats, the things they are doing, taxes will go up, fewer life-saving drugs, gas prices go up and the radical left might be happy i guess. stuart: can senator schumer, the senate leader, can he force you, a republican senator to stay into the recess period? >> he can't force anybody to stay but it is a 50/50 senate, we need every republican senator to stay here to make sure that we can do amendments, to try to stop the bad things in this bill so every republican senator has to stay here and say they are fed up and we ought to do this in september when everybody has time to hear from their own

constituencies. stuart: are republicans in the senate united? nobody crosses over on any issue? >> every republican senators united, they know this is bad for america, bad for our economy, we are going to a recession and they are going to raise taxes by $750 billion? who does that? ? does that? maybe the radical left like this but not americans. stuart: i want to change subjects. as you know china has fired multiple missiles into the taiwan straits and there are sources telling fox news that beijing could could carry out an invasion of taiwan before the 2024 election. are we to take that threat seriously? >> absolutely. i was in taiwan, the chinese ambassador complained the entire time i was there, china ran sorties in taiwan airspace and taiwanese jet had to escort them out.

let's think about this. we have to understand take china at their word, they want to invade taiwan, they took the rights of hong kong citizens, they want to dominate the world, when you get a package that says made in china send it back, do not do anything to help the government of communist china, this is a despicable government, the does not, our way of life, do not ever get another package in your house that says made in china, stop doing it. stuart: do you think president biden's response to the encirclement of taiwan is strong enough? >> no. biden is an appeaser, he thinks he can have a nice conversation. biden is not standing up to dictators anywhere in the world, that is why we have a problem we have in ukraine where russia felt emboldened to invite ukraine, we have china, shooting off missiles close to taiwan. this wasn't happening before biden got elected. there is a cause and effect, biden gets elected, the world

order is falling apart. stuart: thanks for being with us, hope to see you again. china dominating the us in multiple supply-chain sectors, industry groups are warning democrat spending bill could do more harm to the progress being made here in america. grady trimble on capitol hill, how could this hurt the items being made here at home? >> reporter: manufacturers say the tax provisions in the bill would disproportionately hit them, that they would bear the overwhelming geordie of the tax increases, the tax foundation found that over the next ten years the bill would reduce economic output and illuminate 30,000 jobs, that is a big concern for republican lawmakers especially when the vast majority of every day items like batteries, antibiotics, even air conditioning units are not made in the us, they are made in china.

>> we are seeing a lot more investment over the last few years. and it is the wrong policy, discourage investment. >> reporter: we haven't heard from senator kirsten sinema about this bill but she is concerned about key features that manufacturers in their state, have spoken out against, the 15% corporate tax, democrats are telling me they may have to make changes to the bill to win support and get it through. >> there might be small weeks and we will stay until this gets done and knock it out this week. >> we will see a new estimate

by the congressional budget office that the bill would reduce the deficit by $102 billion over the next 10 years so that could sway kirsten sinema but she is meeting with business groups in her state trying to dissuade her from voting. stuart: thank you very much indeed. a vote for the voice of reason, more colleges are scaling back their covid rules ahead of the fall semester, time to redefine covid as endemic. new york city's mayor reveals ten criminals responsible for 500 arrests since bail reform laws took place. in a career criminals are on the streets, we have that story for you. ♪♪

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stuart: the mayor of new york city eric adams blasting the criminal justice system. she says a small group of criminals responsible for 30% of all shootings in new york city since 2021. nate foy joins us. >> 716 people account for 30% of the shootings since last year, half of them have an open felony. criminals feel emboldened, listen here. >> new york remains the only state, considering threats to public safety when making custody, determination. >> no one is talking about the victims.

all we hear is how do we assure those who commit crimes get justice? how do we assure those who are victims of crimes get justice? can we have that conversation? >> this puts things in perspective, 25% of people arrested for burglary have been arrested for another felony within 60 days, that is a 208% increase compared to 2017 before the bail reform law was passed, mayor adams used this example last week in calling for tougher bail laws, you see the teenager on camera beating a new york city police officer, this was three days after being released without bail for a robbery arrest. many of these repeat offenders are committing crimes in manhattan were district attorney alvin bragg has been criticized for soft on crime policies and according to the nypd one of the worst repeat offenders was busted one hundred one times including 88 since bail reform, 74 larceny arrests all in manhattan, bragg

is responding to the mayor's criticism, and proud of the work his office is doing. many called for bragg's job. so far has resisted calls to do that. ashley: stuart: you can say the story was true, almost any big city in america. >> since bail reform,people were arrested. stuart: 485 times just in new york city. welcome to new york. a new da, brooke jenkins, revoking dozens of plea deals made by her predecessor. lauren: too many dealers operate with impunity, revoking 30 pending plea deals.

one was revoked, arrested 6 times. that is the courtroom but social service the center. chesser bodine offered one misdemeanor charge to settle those 6 cases, that's not isolated, she is cracking down and last year, no, 0 fentanyl drug dealers convicted in court. if you don't keep anybody, it is easier to keep the illegal deadly drugs on streets. stuart: more people die. parents are suing one school district for allowing decisions about their gender identity without parental consent. we have the latest on nancy pelosi's husband, paul pelosi was arrested for driving under the influence, complicated story but jason rants sorts it

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stuart: we want to bring you

this, we are looking at britney griner. she is behind bars in a courtroom in moscow, she is waiting to hear her sentence for carrying cannabis oil to the moscow airport, prosecutors want her to be in prison for 9 and a half years. she will find out what her sentence is momentarily and we will bring it to you momentarily. there is this. house speaker pelosi's husband paul pleaded not guilty to two counts of driving under the influence and was in a car accident in may. no complaint claimed pelosi had a drug in his system the night of the accident but napa county prosecutors are walking that back. jason rants is with us, they are walking back the idea he had a drug in his system. sort it out please. >> reporter: there's a rubberstamp element to some of the charters, when you look at

certain laws they include more than one issue and sometimes it is the one issue and not the other that gets put into the paperwork. i limit this in a general sense, washington, i have seen lots of errors like this. we call them areas that are not technically an error but the way it works, i've seen misspellings of the names of suspects on top of it. it seems sloppy to an outsider and a lot of criticism in the process but i don't necessarily view this as evidence of a cover-up. unless you have actual evidence that there was a drug in his system and we haven't seen that yet. stuart: the story of what paul pelosi was doing that night and his response to police officers and what did he do to the police, details on fat? >> reporter: we haven't seen the details, that is important or - can footage.

that automatically going to be this assumption because of the pelosi name that there might be some favoritism shown here but as you talk about in the last segment you've got criminals committing violent acts, getting treated lightly and wondering if we will see that in this case not because it is paul pelosi but left-wing policies. stuart: we have a parental rights organization suing a school district in iowa. the school policies allow students to make decisions about their gender identity without parental consent. that is in iowa. is this common throughout the country? >> reporter: it is. this is iowa, you would have this assumption that in a more red state you wouldn't get this kind of egregious violation of parental rights but it is happening and it is happening across the country, this isn't

even the worst policy i have seen, there has been this movement by educators to pretend they are the actual parents, that you are the parent, you are not in charge because you might make the wrong decision how to raise your kid especially when it comes to gender identity but there are kids who might be confused at a certain age and are being pushed in a certain direction when it comes to gender and i think the best way to deal with that is to have parental involvement, bringing parents together with their kids instead of tearing families apart. i think parents need to look at this and say clearly we need to take better control of our districts, our school districts and make sure we are communicating with the school about our expectations but more portly with the child, have these conversations, be open about it and we can push back against it. stuart: i would like to know why does necessary to have gender preference conversations with 4, 5, and 6-year-olds. still ahead, katie pavlich, joe

durand and dan heninger, speaker pelosi was in taiwan for 19 hours and she set up a crisis that is only just beginning. a weakened president biden has to deal with it next. ♪♪

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>> this is the inflation reduction bill according to george orwell. this is going to be the greatest dc swamp creature we have ever seen with another 87,000 agents chasing after every uber driver. none of us are safe. >> 6.1 million below, we get out of it by reducing government spending and reducing the national debt. >> the republican party is increasingly trumpian. so many voters are ready to move on from the generation of leadership we had in america for a long time. people are ready to move to a new generation. >> china is our geopolitical adversary, this is a cold war.

people are saying before 2024. that is a longer-term ominous horizon. ♪♪ ♪♪ that's the way ♪♪ i like it ♪♪ stuart: that's the way i like it. the statue of liberty on a nice day in new york harbor. it is 11:00 and this is thursday, august 4th. first to the markets. i set up the top of the show that it was fairly calm and it still is. the dow is down 40, the nasdaq is down a tiny fraction. i call that fairly calm. show me the price of oil, it is down to $88 a barrel. that means gas prices will come down some more probably falling below an average $4 a gallon look at the yield on the 10 year treasury, not much change, 2.66%. that now this.

speaker pelosi was in taiwan for 19 hours but she set up a crisis just beginning. a weakened president biden has to deal with it. the chinese military has established six live fire zones surrounding taiwan, aggressive naval forces are the closest they've been to the island. sure looks like practice for a blockade or even an invasion, certainly extreme intimidation. no one knows how this will develop china is unwilling to back off, xi jinping can lose face, he hopes will make an president for life, biden can't back off after afghanistan he can't afford to look week. looks like high stake tension that runs on and on. one thing is happening because of the threat to taiwan. the all important chip industry is on the move, that an industry dominated by taiwan

semi conductor which manufactures half of the worlds computer chips. at a news conference speaker pelosi said significant taiwanese businesses are already planning to invest in manufacturing in the united states. that is a 19 our visit. the speaker found time to visit with and meet the chairman of taiwan semiconductor. the world can't run without taiwan's chips, it is now biden who has to deal with the aftermath of pelosi's visit. third hour of varney starts right now. look who is here, katie pavlich. the president can't afford to look week. what is he going to do? >> so far the president line repeated yesterday by the white house press secretary is to,

quote, manage whatever beijing plans to do in response to speaker pelosi abstract meaning there have been threats before she went from chinese statement it media, and we've seen the white house apologize and we hear from senator tom cotton that it was the white house that leaked the news the nancy pelosi is making this trip rather than having around it when she landed there on the ground and the narrative we've seen from the white house on china meaning managing what beijing wants to do is the same thing we saw with russia invading ukraine, we want to respond to what russia is going to do which is playing defense rather than offense. taiwan is a world player on terms of the chips they produce and for our own national security, chips go into every piece of defense we have, all the javelins we've been sending to ukraine, they all have a

chip in it so it is a national security problem and the president is feedback saying i will wait for beijing to make a move and maybe we will respond in kind to that. stuart: doesn't look strong on that one. here's something i find hard to believe, almost back to school time, students in washington dc must get vaccinated for covid or they can't go to class. this applies to all children over 12, students of private, parochial, interdependent schools. i have strong feelings about it and i think you do too. >> it is so unjust to put this requirement into the dc school system. 40% of black children in the system will not be in school, threatening to expel these students, they have fallen behind on years of education in a system the was failing them beforehand and it is unscientific. listen to what doctor marty makary has been saying about

how they rushed the approval on these vaccines for younger people, there have been a number of people leaving the cdc, nih and fda as a result of politicizing the process. maybe we can look at this through a silver lining and think this can be an opportunity for the school choice moving to rely on them for being expelled from unscientific mandate to go to a different school and have a better option in terms of education. stuart: that would be great. i find it incredible you can be expelled from school for not getting a vaccination that doesn't work in the first place. i want to spare time for this one. a new show on fox nation. i know all about it. it is called luxury hunting larges of america. i want you to give me your 45-2nd elevator pitch. >> got away from politics with someone you know very well who did a great job on your show

and go to a number of spaces and experience the luxury, lifestyle and combination with the great outdoors so i grew up outside and spent a lot of time in the tent with my dad hunting and camping but i was able to go to these different places in louisiana, oregon, montana and show everybody you can be both. if you like the outdoors, your spouse or family would rather hang out at the lodge, the perfect show for you. stuart: i'm in, consider me in. luxury hunting lodges. great subject. thanks very much, see you again soon. breaking news, russian court found wnba star brittany grinyou are guilty, of drug smuggling with kamil intend, she is still awaiting sentencing prosecutors are looking for tween 9 and a half years behind bars. when we get the sentence we will tell you immediately. back to the markets not showing

much movement, joe durrant shows us things are calming down, this is a good thing. do you agree with me? calming down? >> no doubt about it. we wanted to be calmer. the beginning of the year, very rare, 6% of the time, over a 6-month period, the traditional balance had a tougher start, very rare to have that incident and things are calming down, the inflation picture, food products are coming down. a little more optimistic. stuart: you are raising your recession expectations for later this year into next year. tell me more. >> time has passed, typically from the moment the fed start increasing rates takes 30 months before there is a recession at that happen 60% of

the time, 40% of the time there's no recession but when you look at what is happening there is enough strength in the economy even when we have the gdp period, the economy, unemployment is reloaded and will continue to be really good so i think it takes a while for the increased rate hikes and as we see this work through the system it is not this year, we think the market will be higher by year end with some volatility. next year a high likelihood of recession over the next two years. only 40% the next 12 months and little likelihood. stuart: if you say prices will go up 5% to 10% by the end of this year, i'm pretty safe saying we are not going back to the lows of june. >> typically you don't see the bottom very often so it would not be unusual to see at least

a scary period, we might not get back to the lows with don't be surprised if we don't get little bloodshed because that happens with the markets but inflation, inflationary period, we tell them don't look for investment solutions look at lifestyle decisions, you're better off controlling spending, stocks are where you want to be in an inflationary period, that's the best long-term hedge against inflation, the stock market because companies make more money as well but recommend you do a lot of drastic actions, balance your portfolio, make sure you can stand your out location this appropriately at risk and everyone has to compromise right now. stuart: for all those viewers who ask where is joe durrant from, i will tell you that is a zimbabwe accent. am i right? and i right? >> not a lot of people get that. new zealand.

stuart: you are all right, thank you for joining us, see you again soon. now this, the president of the san francisco fed says, quote, feel the pain of inflation anymore. lauren: mary daly is being called out of touch and this is what she told reuters, i see a crisis rising but i can make substitutions. i'm not immune to gas prices rising, food prices rising but i don't find myself in a space where i have to make trade offs because i have enough. many americans have enough. mary daly makes $120,000 a year. to lower inflation so every american can make their dollar go further.

stuart: doesn't come out well. when you express it that way i've got enough. lauren: we are trying to hike inflation. disney world, opening stores 50 years ago, the ticket prices have gone up 4000%. one million migrants crossed the border into texas this year. an officer tells fox news the flow of illegals is nonstop and consistent as temperatures hit triple digits. the border report make up. parents sick and tired of woke curricula in schools. >> i will sue him. i swear to you, turn into a national lawsuit. stuart: there you go.

chris rufo is leading the charge, to respond to all this. ♪♪

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♪♪ stuart: back back to school again. that is austin, texas, 85 °, going up to one hundred 5. what do you expect in the middle of summer? mom is threatening to sue over

critical race theory in schools. >> if my daughter is taught crt at all i will shoot you. if my daughter was taught fpl at all, i will sue you. i am encouraging every parent i know to sue you. it free teacher and principal, and the chain, move tired of you all. stuart: she is litigious and parents getting upset about what is going on in the schools. you've got an original story, thomas what you found in the san diego schools, what are they doing about hetero normativeity. >> i spoke about them promoting critical race theory, one of the worst offenders in the united states and this year from document i obtained it appears they are teaching radical gender theory rate

training teachers that heterosexuality is a system of oppression, categories of male and female were invented by white europeans 2 oh press racial and sexual minorities. they are taking these wacky theories from the university and injecting them in the k-12 system, the mother you just heard opposing crt also start opposing radical gender theory because that is on the menu in many schools today. stuart: we have a private school in new york city, reportedly forced students to attend a drag show at their up this couple church, part of a pride month celebration, it is $50,000 and up for the elites, parents choose the school they want to send their kids to go cup they have freedom of choice the kids in public schools, their parents don't have that choice.

>> i oppose it substantively. the situation is very different. new york city public schools sent to hundred thousand dollars in recent years on drag queens performing in public schools where children are forced to attend by law and what they are doing is quite simple. we have to be clear about it, adult men dressed in women's clothing talking about sexuality with children with the full power of the state behind them. parents should not be scared to oppose it because it has no place in schools, i think it is inappropriate. stuart: what do you make of the decision from the dc school system? all children over the age of 12 must be vaccinated when they go back to school and if they are not vaccinated they are out. that is appalling. >> it is catastrophic, it is

appalling. we see learning lost during covid, having more catastrophic effects than at any time since world war ii, kids in some cases two years behind, dc is not a great school district, and you can learn the basics of reading, writing and math. the government is condemning these kids, this is an outrageous and indefensible decision. >> leading the charge for our children which we much appreciate. on the same lines here going the other way, some colleges are scaling back their covid precautions for this fall.

lauren: depends on the school, different school by school. they are getting rid of the masks, and they are not treating it as an emergency anymore. they are going to require in boston that you are vaccinated but don't need to wear a mask indoors, in charleston, allowing students to test negative. this is california, will not require vaccines. the pandemic phase is over. in new york, if you test positive just wear a mask. you can stay with your roommates in your dorm room. don't have to go to work quarantine isolation room. just mask up. stuart: before my head explodes i will move on. lauren: it is different at every school, is that why you're head will explode? stuart: can't understand why

the least vulnerable group of people, college students and kids in school, why do they require all this protection which is not protection at all. lauren: this is progress, living in the right direction and you're head wouldn't explode, can't make you happy. stuart: i will question this one. what will it cost to send your kids back to school, school equipment going back to school, supposed to be more this year than last year. lauren: only $15 more this year than last year but kindergarten through 12th grade, $854, school supplies, electronics, the national retail federation, $37 billion. stuart: it will cost this much money, $864. lauren: they are usually right

on, $1200 for college kids in the worry is this is so expensive, and the same backpack as last year. kids want a new backpack every year, just went working for them, starting at $55. stuart: i am really old. can't do that but some kids will. stuart: let's get to disney. the cost of a trip to disney world, florida, how much does a ticket cost 50 years ago, >> $3.50, $3.50, one dollar for a child. they start at $109. stuart: everything else is going on. lauren: if you go to the gift

store you get everyone a gift, a backpack or something like that, 95 today, water bottle used to be $5, 30 and but mickey ears, that silly mickey head and his $30. we won shouldn't parent start to say no, you can't have that, not paying for it. what is wrong with that? lauren: literally a $10,000 family trip, don't know if you cannot get the kid a pair of mickey ears. we won will you say you can't have a new backpack every year? >> they are a family operation. you have to make unaffordable. >> giant chunk of metal just fell out of the sky and crash landed on a farm in australia, took a while but now experts

finally know where it came from. 65% of food banks, more people in june than they did in may. why is that? inflation starts or the recession, jeff flock has the report after this. ♪♪ about two years ago i realized that jade was overweight. i wish i would have introduced the fresh food a lot sooner. after farmer's dog she's a much healthier weight. she's a lot more active. and she's able to join us on our adventures. get started at longlivedogs.com

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we keep them. a promise is everything to old dominion, because it means everything to you. >> just getting this, russian court just sentenced britney griner to tween 9 years in prison. president biden reaction to the sentence, was unacceptable. the dow is down 100 points. not that much price movement. paychex got bigger and a dozen cities across america. which cities? >> smaller cities like abilene, texas, grand junction, colorado, they saw weekly wages

go up by one hundred $50 compared to last year according to the government. the wages the went up most in washington state, $254 more each week bringing weekly wages 2 $887. looking at new york city, wages dropped, making more if you live in new york. it fell in san jose. people are moving out, wages are falling. stuart: food banks seeing a surge in demand, jeff flock at a food bank in camden, new jersey. what the explanation? has it inflation a recession or what? jeff: it is inflation for one. look at all these people. a line that runs around the block the things cost more so

people who otherwise, people well-dressed in line, not at a food bank but they are. a group called that -- a group called mighty writers. this is a group that typically teaches people to write. what they are getting there, they said we need to help people to write but also need to eat first and foremost. >> how can you learn if you are hungry? one of the basic necessities of life is food and we all need it. one way to give back to the community is weekly distribution four days a week. >> reporter: that's the big hunger group in america. half of their members are finding they need more help now and they are getting.

>> pre-pandemic we were sitting 90,000 people weekend we are 140,000 people week. >> reporter: you try to be as healthy as you can but healthy food costs money. fresh produce. >> not only is it costly but perishable. they need items that will last. they are finding those items for us is getting to be expensive as well. >> reporter:'s been around this way. i want to show the line of folks, families, single people. to get some food. >> hunger hits every community in the us. people right now are struggling for the first time with inflation and rising food costs. people finding, paying for gas

or food. >> reporter: we are in camden, new jersey, and inner-city community but this is a nationwide issue. west virginia, poor areas of the country, cities or rural this is a problem. the last look at folks in line. it it is not getting better anytime soon. stuart: that is an astonishing line. i want to bring in katie fitzgerald of feeding america. 65% of all food banks saw an increase, big increase in demand compared to may. i will ask the same question. is it because of inflation and or recession was there something else at play here? >> thank you for drawing attention to this issue. we are seeing a hunger crisis

in this country that is in some ways worse than we saw at the height of the pandemic so inflationary pressures on the budgets of american families and seniors is driving more and more people many of whom to food banks, who never got this kind of help before and the problem we are seeing is food banks are not immune to these pressures so they are dealing with trying to address this issue, facing insurmountable costs to their way of conducting business. stuart: it must cost you a great deal more to buy the food for the food banks, where does your funding come from? >> this is weird. we are seeing this lack of any reprieve in demand and as you reported 65% of food banks

reporting increases in demand, it is still at elevated levels. food donations are down, the supply chain and tight inventories in the food supply chain making it difficult to get food donated so food banks are trying to purchase their way out of this problem. and on purchasing food this year, those costs are 30% to 40% higher. members, really, asking folks on communities who can help to local food banks, and helping donate food wherever possible. stuart: at this moment can you supply food to all those people who weight in these lines? >> at this moment we can but

this is not a sustainable situation. we believe this is a problem that can be solved, 66 billion pounds of food that goes to waste every year. we can recover more of that food and another billion in the retail channel alone but we need everyone to be part of that solution, government, private sector food donors and folks who can contribute and raise awareness about this solveable problem. stuart: katie fitzgerald. 2400 people have been arrested with guns in new york city this year. 80% are on the streets,% on the streets, crime out of control in new york. the governor of texas slamming the mayors of new york and dc for refusing to visit the border, roll tape. >> a bunch of hypocrites, they are fine with illegal immigration flooding across the borders in a process caused by the biden administration as

long as it stays in texas. stuart: griff jenkins has that next. ♪♪

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greenfields projects. talisker resources. stuart: more than 1 million migrants crossed into texas this year alone. scorching temperatures, dangerous river currents not stopping them. what are you seeing today? >> reporter: neither the triple digit temperatures was 106 yesterday or the treacherous river conditions, making it dangerous for the crossing. 1 million crossers in the top 3

sectors in texas. the drone shot a needle pass, texas, you see how many are in this group, coming across every day, it is a daily occurrence and the number one thing i hear from people here is why don't i see more of this in the national media. the impact it is having on local communities. >> reporter: ranchers are overrun, farms overrun, neighborhoods, homes, everything is completely altered because of the extraordinary number of people going across the border, people don't come and see, simple he cannot comprehend. >> reporter: how bad is it? if you look at a group shot from early this morning, went out at 5 am with texas dps and came across an area in la jolla 5 to 6 miles of pure river border, only one border patrol

agent in that area. the entire 5 to 6 miles, he had to babysit them and process them, leading 5 to 6 miles wide open. i spoke to one in this group, from guatemala, he told me where he wants to go but take a listen. >> washington dc? the capital? >> reporter: he is going to washington dc, the mayor, muriel bowser, new york mayor eric adams want to come see this firsthand. stuart: thanks very much. block chain made millions by shutting production down during the historic heatwave in texas. how does riot block chain make money shutting down? lauren: if they turn off their operations temporarily and voluntarily and sell energy to

the grid which they did they make $9.5 million in credit. they are a crypto company. uses a lot of electricity, the electricity for that. lauren: had they operated at peak times they would spend money. bitcoin is down, bitcoin rose last month and with this money-saving operation which is genius by management, block chain stock rose 75% in july. it is volatile. stuart: you make money like that -- i want to know about the chunk of metal that fell out of the sky and landed on her sheep farm. lauren: look how big that was. a space x mission, space experts in australia think it came from a capital used in 2,020. local reports say neighbors heard this loud bang and that

space junk fell out of the sky, literally landing in the middle of her sheep farm and this is happening more often, because we are sending more flights up to outer space, you are supposed to report it. stuart: a big chunk of stuff. lauren: especially when you hear it. stuart: it landed in new south wales. lauren: in the middle of nowhere. stuart: fortunately landed there, don't even think about it. back to the market, a sense of the market. i see a lot of selling, 3 quarters of the dow 30 in the red being sold, going down in price and the dow is down one third of one%. inflation is running hot, crime rampant and the woke mod is powerful, dan heninger says there is still hope. he hopes all these problems could be good for conservatives. dan heninger is next. ♪♪

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stuart: the dreadful news out of moscow, russian court sentenced brittany griner to 9 years in prison finding her guilty of drug smuggling with kamil intend, president biden says the sentence is unacceptable and calling on russia to release griner immediately. let's get to real crime, the mayor of new york, eric adams says career criminals racked up hundreds of arrests since the new bail reform law began in the city. sounds awful. lauren: these are real numbers, ten criminals responsible for 500 arrests. in the 6 of those 10 are on the street right now. this means repeatedly police do their jobs and courts get there's, it's a revolving door. if you look at crime in new york city major crime up 37%, robberies up 40%. transit crime up 53%. there is one instance of a man arrested 101 times mostly for theft.

if you're able to arrest someone 101 times look at the other stuff. and encouraging other people. stuart: almost any big city in the united states, it doesn't work. the conservative case for optimism from ramp to crime to closed schools, america's culture is trying to right itself. dan heninger wrote it. how is it america's culture trying to write itself? >> there is a case to be made for optimism. i'm not sure about using the word optimism in public. people are seized with gloom and doom. for conservatives things are beginning to go their way. start with the supreme court, the dobbs abortion decision was a decision on behalf of federalism, returning power and authority to the states, west

virginia versus the environmental protection agency which greatly limits the power of federal bureaucracy. the administrative state, a battle conservatives waged for 100 years. a culture. we were talking about crime. most people think crime is out of control. well, almost. new york, i have to admit, there is a problem because kathy huchul is the only person who can fire prosecutors in new york city come she's running for reelection, she won't do it. san francisco, of all places, prosecutor bodine, george gascon in los angeles is heading for a recall, and defeats by voters, progressive prosecutors around the united states. it is not working so well. one of the biggest events of the pandemic was the union led

forced closure of public schools and that looks like it is coming back to haunt them as parents attempt to retake control of their schools. a recent poll shows most americans now trust republicans for the education of their children rather than democrats, that's the historic reversal. they don't like dysfunction whether it is crime, schools or authority of washington. stuart: is the power of wokesm, the power of socialism on the decline? >> i think the left has gone too far with wokesm like transgender politics and the average person out there is beginning to react against it. the arrow is pointing down. it will be up to republican candidates to talk about these things. i think voters are showing they do want the culture to write itself.

it is gone too far, seeing that reflected in elections around the us. at the moment i am beginning to allow myself a little bit of optimism. stuart: the conservative case for optimism, op-ed written by dan heninger, we could use a little optimism. i like that word. you know what time it is? coming up on 11:50, the question of the day, how many american presidents have served in the military? don't look it up. take a wild guess, 21, 31, 26? 45 presidents i do declare. how many of them served in the military? the answer after this. - look, this isn't my first rodeo, and let me tell you something. i wouldn't be here, if i thought reverse mortgages took advantage of any american senior or worse, that it was some way to take your home.

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stuart: okay, how many, first of all, i made a mistake, okay? nobody in the studio correct me. there have been 46 presidents of the united states and nobody corrected me. >> we're all looking at each other, huh? stuart: how many american presidents served in the military. 21, 31, 26, 36. >> 31. stuart: i'm boeing with 31 too. it is 31. got that right. last president to serve in the military was george w bush. he was a first lieutenant in the texas air national guard.

send in "friday feedback" questions, comments, critiques, we do it all. send in the fan friday videos. record yourself, tell us your name where you're from. you have to say you're watching "varney & company." you do that you could be on television. i have 10 seconds to pitch to jackie deangelis. i might pitch her the show five or six seconds early. maybe she could use the time. jackie: send mine in the email, stuart, thank you very. welcome to "coast to coast," i'm jackie deangelis in for neil cavuto. stocks lower after the best day in a week. we are following swings ahead of the july jobs report. mass layoffs and hiring freezes are causing tech workers to lose confidence in their job security. plus mortgage rates sinking to the lowest level since april. how it could help bring some perspective buyers back to the housing