great. dagen: [laughter] i can hear the beeping, as you were talking we were rolling the video in the background. the beeping to cover up his cursing. i appreciate that, maybe i had too much. tiana, and francis thank you so much for spending the morning with everybody. that does it for us, "varney" & company starts right now. stuart take it away. stuart: good morning, dagen, good morning, everybody. every time we begin a new week, every monday morning, i figure that first, you want to see how your moneys doing. after all, it was a great rally friday, as it carried through. well, not in the early going this morning. the dow up 400 friday, it's going to be down about 220 as of this monday morning. s&p, nasdaq also down. now, this. china's economy suffering a consequences of its zero-covid policy. china has lowered interest rates again. that's not a good sign, and it is a negative for stocks this morning. oil is down. that is also the result of china

slowdown. news this morning that saudi aramco made $48 billion profit in its second quarter that's as big as if not bigger than the profit that apple makes in a good quarter. oil this morning $87 a barrel. for the first time in two months gas has stopped falling 3.95 is the average for regular, and for diesel, well it's still down just $0.01 but your average is $ 5.03 per gallon. no big decline for bitcoin, holding right around 23, 900 or $24,000 a coin. let's get to politics. a week ago, the fbi removed documents from donald trump's private home. now, he wants them back. on truth social, he says, i respectfully request the documents be immediately returned. he says some attorney-client protected material was taken. karen jean-pierre insists the raid was not particularly motivated and the white house insists president biden knew absolutely nothing about the raid beforehand. meanwhile, the department of

homeland security reports an increase in violent threats posted on social media against federal officials and facilities , including a threat to place a so-called dirty bomb in front of fbi headquarters. the president still on vacation at the beach, but he will return briefly to washington to sign the inflation reduction act. whoever gave it that name has a sense of humor, because it's a climate bill with big tax and spending increases, nothing to do with inflation. monday, august 15, 2022. there's no summer doldrums here. "varney" & company is about to begin. days go by, i can feel the fire like a handout the window in the wind ♪ stuart: okay, well that's a moderate, nice pleasant music to start monday morning, nothing excitable, nothing like that. it's sixth avenue new york, on a

monday. traditionally desserted because people only come to the office three days a week and monday is not one of them so let's go. here we go. a new week begins and it's a big week for the retailers. walmart, target and home depot of this world will be reporting this week. lauren we're going to find out about back-to-school shopping in the upcoming holidays? lauren: we'll hear from those two retail giants that already cut their profit outlook s, and took their stocks in the market down when they did that's walmart they report tomorrow and target reports on wednesday, add in home depot, lo ews, department stores like kohl's and tjx. here is the deal. retailers are stuck with too much of the wrong stuff so they are discounting to get rid of it that discounting hurts their bottom lines. we flush everything out with july retail sales they come on wednesday. that's a signal of back-to-school shopping. a lot of the country the kids are already back-to-school. stuart: they ordered lot of stuff at the end of the pandemic lauren: uh-huh. stuart: and they got the stuff delivered now they can't sell it that's basically it. lauren: they can sell it. there's a mismatch between what

customers want and what they have and now they have to pivot and discount it to get it off the shelves. stuart: look whose here to comment on this , jeff sica, the man himself, from new jersey that's not funny. nothing funny about coming from new jersey. i'm a jersey boy. >> i know. stuart: you realize that? [laughter] what's the most important retail report this week, walmart, target, that's it? >> well i think this is the holy trinity of retail, with walmart, target, homan, but keep in mind, walmart and target, when they warned last time, we saw this tremendous concern about being in a recession. these two companies give us a snapshot of the consumer, and the consumer is 70% of the economy and they've been broken. it's a matter of walmart and target telling us how much they're broken and how much we can expect going forward. stuart: well what do you think they are going to say? do you think we're going to a

recession, they say hey, here it comes watch out, folks. >> i think, stuart, i thought when they had originally warned, i thought that they were being, they were given a very dire prediction and i think they're going to say that things are still slow, that they're not seeing apparel purchases that they need to see , and i do think that they're going to be concerned whether or not there could very well be a bounce in the stocks, because they have been, i think, extremely cautious, but they're going to show us a very very concerning picture going forward. stuart: they got you worrying all right, jeff, hold on a second. we also have a lot of housing data coming out this week and you're in the housing market very significantly. is the housing market cooling? >> well, i mean, what i see with the housing market is that we've had this tremendous concern about what are mortgages going to do. what are they increase in interest rates going to do to

new home starts and purchases, so what i see is that we're going to ultimately see a scenario where there will be a not as many as new home starts as they anticipate. there will be not as many existing home sales as they anticipate, but i do think that prices are going to stay relatively high, because we have this decrease in supply. stuart: i might like to tell our audience that jeff sica is the tv professional because in the middle of the interviewing which i just conducted, put him on camera again. do you see that little thing sticking out of his right ear? it's called an ifb. it came out in the middle of the interview. our floor manager immediately came over, we took him off camera, stuffed the ifb back in his ear and he proceeded without a single glitch whatsoever. >> i have to say i've never

been so panicked on tv as i am right this second. lauren: [laughter] stuart: great start to a monday morning. you're a fine man, jeff. lauren: welcome to the club, jeff. welcome to the club. stuart: the jersey boy. jeff thank you very much, indeed stick it back in your ear. the white house is taking a victory lap on the passage of this massive tax and spending bill. watch this. >> could not have laid it out more clearly the choice here that the american people are going to have in the coming months between the biden vision, the democratic vision, and the republican visions. so, you know, this is something that president biden campaigned on. you remember, he talked about creating an economy that works with the middle class, creating breathing room for the middle class, and so this week he stood up to the special interest and got it done. stuart: it's just so wonderful isn't it? david avella joins me now. all right, david, everybody thinks what's this going to do to the november elections and i put it to you that taxing the

rich, sicking the irs on the billion billionaires, lowering the drug cost and saving the planet might be popular in november. what say you? >> we don't have to start crying ourselves to sleep just yet, stuart that the democratic prospects are getting better because when the reduction inflation reduction act doesn't reduce inflation, as it will not in the next few months, you have voters still saying wait a second what are we getting out of the biden administration? think about this. a year ago, for a household of 50,000 or less, that paid 24% of their income on food and fuel alone. this year they're paying 50% of their income. now there's no reason to believe that in two months that's going to change and when you're the party in power voters hold you accountable and there's every reason to believe democrat s are still held accountable for this economy and where it is. stuart: fair point. democrats are noticeably reluctant to support president biden for a second run and this is noticeable these days. >> it's almost to the point now , where they will be openly campaigning against biden and hoping that he doesn't come to

their state. if you're a swing state democrat whether that be in colorado or arizona, where you just voted for a tax increase, do you want the champion of these bad policies coming into campaign for you? i say no. stuart: so, the democrats are still looking bad in november? and president biden is not going to be running in 2024? is that your conclusion? >> well he'll decide that. let me just say this. never has an incumbent president at this point, where he is standing in the polling, not been challenged by his own party he may run, but he very well likely will have a democratic opponent. stuart: i be interested to see any polls that come out after this signing of this tax and spend bill. i've not seen a poll since it was passed in the house. >> it's august. we will see many polls go up and down. the one that hasn't changed is voters concern about the direction of the country which is still 72% disapproval. stuart: that is true. david avella, thank you very much, sir. let's return to the radon mar-a-lago. is the media still having a

field day with it? lauren: one week ago today, and msnbc tiffany cross was interviewing a legal analyst and she says, what does charging a former president look like? and the legal analyst, surprised her and says well tamp down your expectations. tiffany cross was not satisfied listen in. >> i think a lot of people want to show the difference in this country, the difference in the justice system that many people navigate. i think a lot of people do want to see , you know, donald trump handcuffed like episode of cops and walking out. we want to see that and we may not. lauren: a perp walk? people want to see equal treatment under the law. stuart: i think they do. lauren: yeah. stuart: all right, move on. check futures please monday morning, we're going on the down side at the opening bell down 200 for the dow, but remember it was up 400 on friday and coming up, white house press secretary karin jean-pierre was pressed on whether the inflation reduction act was orwellian.

listen to what she had to say. >> when you put it in its totality you will see that it will bring down lower the deficit, which will help fight inflation. it has been proven, it has been said by economists across-the-board on the republican side and the on the democratic side. stuart: so, is it like george or well's book 1984 is it orwellian? i will ask the well-read brian kilmeade shortly. trump says fbi seized attorney- client privileged record during his raid on mar-a-lago. ashley webster has that story and he's there, next. ♪ ♪

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♪ stuart: you know, it really is a beautiful day. you're looking at north topsail beach in north carolina, i'd like to be on that beach right now, but i'm not. last week, we showed beach shots and everybody, they were packed. all right, futures indicate some red ink at the opening bell this monday morning, but not a lot of it. dow is going to be down about 200. former president trump says privileged records were seized during the fbi's raid on mar-a-lago and he wants them back. ashley webster is there. the latest, please, ashley? ashley: yeah, good morning, stu. he wants them back for a variety of reasons. now, more than 20 boxes of materials were taken from mar-a-lago here behind me a week ago. they included items like a binder of photos and personal

written handwritten notes but also the fbi claims some documents that were classified. in fact if you break it down, they say, four sets of top secret files, three sets of secret documents, and three sets of so-called confidential material. now the warrant indicates that the fbi was looking for a possible violation of the espionage act but to your point, donald trump says you know what? i've done nothing wrong and i deserve to get these items back. besides, he says, those that were classified, were declassified by him, himself. trump attorneys also claim that other documents are protected by attorney-client privilege, and should be returned immediately. nothing back from the government on that, by the way. republican lawmakers also calling for the affidavit to be made public. they say it should provide a clearer picture of why the fbi believed an unprecedented search was necessary. that includes republican congressman scott perry of pennsylvania, who, by the way, had his cell phone seized by the

fbi and said all of this is a clear abuse of power by the justice department. take a listen. >> anybody that doesn't bend the knee and that isn't intimidated that isn't with the narrative is now subject to these kind of third-world banana republic tactics politically, and that's what the you're see ing is this horrific overuse, abuse of the doj and the instruments of federal power ashley: and, stu, the justice department has setup what is called a filter team, a separate group, of agents and attorneys who will review all of the documents, a process that could take months to play out but this should also be pointed out that trump's attorneys wanted an independent panel to review all of this and they were denied, so, lots of angles to this story but bottom line donald trump says a lot of the documents belong to him. back to you. stuart: got it. ashley, thanks very much we'll be back to you later. tom fitton is with us this

monday morning with judicial watch and joins us. >> good morning. stuart: where do we go from here what's next in this saga? >> well, by 5 p.m. today, the justice department has been required by a federal court, the same magistrate who signed off on the warrant, to respond to judicial watch' demand and the demand of now media companies that have come into release the underlying affidavit and other related materials that were used to justify this raid, so now the justice department is going to have to tell the american people and the court what's out there or what should be withheld, if anything, and why they're withholding it. stuart: but they might not have to release all the details of the affidavit. they could refuse your request, couldn't they? >> oh, they could black it out, we might not even know what to tell the court unless, well the court did order a decision that could be made

public, or a filing that could be made public by the justice department. look, you know, the lack of transparencies on this further highlights the concerns that millions of americans have about what i think is an act of desper atism by the biden administration. i baseless hit targeting of trump. stuart: did you say desperation, which is it or despartism. [laughter] pick your poison, but you have terrible economy, so there is desperation to distract from that, but to abuse law enforcement like this is despoti sm. look, judicial watch has been fighting these record issues for nearly 30 years. the position of the government has been that when a president has documents that he's taken with him, they're presumptively personal, so why did they change the

position? well the obviously answer is because it's trump. they hate trump and any reason or any investigation that could be manufactured to target him and to try to jail him at the radical left has been pressuring garland, we see what's happened. he did it. stuart: i can't imagine an arrest warrant for the former president, and a perp walk for the former president. it's not going to happen, is it, tom? >> not only, i think, is it not going to happen but of course you know with this lawlessness you don't know. despotism they don't follow the rule of law. in my view none of these records should have been taken by government. all of them should be returned. they're all personal under the law, and but you heard it from the earlier report. they want to drag this on for months. stuart: oh, that's it. >> up until the election, shortly after the election, into the new election campaign for

the presidency. stuart: yup. and spin it out and use it. tom fitton, thanks very much for being with us today. we'll check back at 5:00 to see if you get what you wanted, see you later. >> thank you. stuart: white house press secretary says the department of justice has not been politicized what exactly is she saying? lauren: that the white house has nothing to do with the investigation. >> i can not speak to that. it be inappropriate for me to speak on that, because the president has been very clear and unequivocal about this is that when it comes to law enforcement, matters, investigation, the department of justice has complete, complete independence. we do not interfere. we do not get briefed. the department of justice, again , when it comes to law enforcement matters, it is independent, complete independence, and i'm just not going to comment on that. none of us will because we're going to let merit garland speak for himself. lauren: it's just hard to imagine that the president didn't know. it was an unprecedented raid. three months before the mid-term

s, but you have a bipartisan push for transparencies. florida senator marco rubio, west virginia democrat mark warner sent a letter to the dni and the a.g. demanding information. what exactly was behind this? stuart: that's what tom fitton wants as well. check futures please, monday morning big rally last week. down market this monday morning, dow is up about 100 points, the opening bell is next. keep your eye on the money, keep your eye on the money ♪

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stuart: check those markets just a few minutes before we open, three minutes to go down about 180 for the dow. keith fitz-gerald with us this morning. keith, why are you watching apple, so specially today? >> that's an interesting question. apple is among the single-most widely-owned most liquid stocks on the planet, as apple goes, so goes the market, because every major institution, retail investor, or fund, must own that company if they want a piece of the action. stuart: so, watt do you think they're going to do. are they going up or sideways or what? >> well i'll tell you what i'd like to see it take out 180 this

week if it does that clears the deck to $200 a share. apple's clearly got the moxy to do it and i think we just need a little positive energy and it's going to get there. stuart: well what about this , the stock buyback tax? i think it's 1% on the big corporations buying back their own stock. i believe apple -- >> can i speak bluntly, stuart? stuart: yeah. >> i've got to tell you that is one of the dumbest things i've ever seen implemented because stock buybacks are actually a perfectly viable financial decision, when a chief financial officer has to maximize shareholder value. that's what they do so if they can't find a suitable investment they buyback their own stock that's good for investors if they are going to tax it that is going to impact tech companies, medical companies in particular that have that kind of assessment risk for lack of a better term. stuart: it is going to affect apple because apple is reinvest ed or bought back hundreds of billions of dollars worth of its own stock. i think it's almost a half trillion dollars bought back over the years. it's going to suffer if they

have to tax that. >> well, i think you're right. i mean, and again, it will suffer short-term, but longer term, cfo's are a lot smarter than government officials, and so if i'm looking at this , i'm going to go with apple every time because they are going to find a way around it and figure out how to use that capital. government, they are just going to figure out how to spend yours stuart: this week, target and walmart report. are they going to tell us that a recession is on the way? >> you know, i think we're already there. i think that what we're going to hear from them is going to be critical. did they or did they not have the right inventory on hand? walmart has already warned preemptively saying it bought too much of the discretionary items. people went for the necessities so i'm going to be watching have they fixed supply chain issues? do they have the right, how much discounting is going to really hit the board? i think people are going to be shocked at how bad these numbers are potentially. stuart: but you're not expecting a big sell-off in the overall market this week, are you? >> well, you know, the china stuff threw a monkey wrench in it admittedly. everybody knew that those number

s were going to be bad but the computers reacted to them this morning so a little bit of unanticipated hit but i think again, the numbers are stronger, underneath all of this , and they have been since june than a lot of people want to recognize so assuming that stays true i think we could have a pretty good week actually. >> [opening bell ringing] stuart: okay we look forward to that, good stuff keith, thanks very much indeed we'll watch apple i'd love to see it get back above 180. the market is about to open. boom. it is now open this monday morning. we're off and running and right from the start, we do have some selling. the dow industrials i can see four winners up top there mcdonald's, amgen proctor and gamble and -- lauren: johnson & johnson and up a mere $0.94. i'm just at a better angle. stuart: you have better eyes. dow is down 160 from the get go. the s&p 500 down a half percentage point the nasdaq composite on the downside to the tune of .39%. not that big a drop. big tech most of them, all of them on the downside, but just

fractionally that's it. apple, amazon, meta, alphabet, microsoft literally a fraction down, but look at tesla. we got something going here. elon musk celebrating a milestone for his company. am i right in saying i think you know the number, he's built 3 million cars? lauren: correct. 1 million from shanghai, in press ever, because of everything going on with the chinese economy falling drastically and 2 million from freemont, california. there's another catalyst coming for tesla. it's president biden signing the inflation reduction act, because if you look at the tesla model y, best-selling ev in the u.s. , the model 3 second- best. some of both of those models qualify for the federal tax credits, and then if you look at the sales of the y through this year, 230,000, double the next 10 popular ev's in the u.s. combined. stuart: that's very good for tesla. those tax credits. lauren: and they don't need the tax credits but they are getting some of them. stuart: i want to take a look at

peloton because i know they are in for a total makeover of the entire company. tell me about the changes. lauren: so the news came out on friday and the stock jumped 13% 14% on friday so that's when the big move happened. the changes 800 jobs cut, they are shutting some stores, raising prices on their exercise equipment so between $500 and $800. stuart: for a bike? lauren: for a bike. stuart: they put the price up? lauren: yeah. stuart: sorry to interrupt. lauren: no that's actually a good thing because jpmorgan says it helps maintain premium brand positioning, so that's why the stock was up on friday and kind of doing nothing up just fractionally right now but actually a decent month at peloton. stuart: it takes kind of a gutsy move, you raise the price by 500 bucks but they aren't doing very well already. my goodness, me. how about the streamers? put them all on the screen, please. every streamer we've got, they're up there. here is my theory. are they struggling to keep subscribers for an entire year, or are we moving in and out of streaming services?

lauren: moving in and out you want to see this show on this platform, you sign up, you watch a show, you cancel. we're doing that over and over again. stuart: really? lauren: 19% of subscribers canceled three or more subscriptions in the past two years. so they signed up for a service when they wanted to see a special show, or just try it out because you were stuck at home, so this unbelievable churn since and netflix lost what, about a million customers in the most recent quarter. stuart: is it easy to cancel? lauren: i've never had a stream ing service but it has to be easy if everybody is doing it the numbers are big. stuart: i never signed up for a service. lauren: you share passwords. stuart: i do indeed. bitcoin, right now it's at 24, 100 but i think didn't it briefly just briefly go to 25? lauren: over the weekend for the first time since mid- june. we are seeing this really tight correlation to risk assets like stocks, so the s&p 500 up four weeks in a row up three-plus percent last week on the cooling inflation data so you saw bitcoin recapture 25,000 briefly

, stocks are down today, so bitcoin and the other cryptocurrencies are down too. stuart: still at 24 grand, got that. show me china's internet stocks, please, mixed picture. they're mostly down because of china's weak economic data, and that weak china data is also hurting our market too. lauren: the data in china was just awful. factory data, retail sales data, credit expansion, all down, all missing expectations, all squeezed by their zero covid policies so in a surprise move, china central bank cut rates to spur growth, but when you look at 16-24-year-olds their unemployment rate is 20% in china. stuart: 20%? 16-24? lauren: yes, they don't have money to spend and the threat of these lockdowns when you can be in a costco, for instance, and all of a sudden, they get on the loudspeaker and say we're looking down because there's one person in this entire store that might have been exposed to someone who came down with covid that's a really scary feeling,

so all of this hits their growth especially when you're looking at alibaba, retail companies. stuart: i just don't see how they get out of this zero-covid policy. lauren: i can't believe they are still in it. the people in your country rebell, i guess. at some point. how do you live like this? stuart: all right that's china stocks, how about dollar general they are down. lauren: yup. stuart: just 1% what's going on? lauren: downgrade at bmo to market perform. they kept the price target at 265. they basically think look the idea that dollar stores do better in recession is already baked in to the stocks, so that's why they are maintaining their price target. i went to a dollar store yesterday, not dollar general. usually the balloons are a dollar there, which is why i go. you come out with a nice bouquet , spend like $10. 2.50 per balloon. stuart: really? lauren: uh-huh, with the sign on the door apologizing to customer s for the drastic increase. stuart: extraordinary stuff. there was a pizza house at a small seaside town on cape cod

which i go to and on saturday night despite crowds of people, on saturday, the whole day, they were closed. notice on on the wall saying " sorry we're closed, we couldn't find enough staff to operate." there was crowds all over the place. they would probably have done 20,000 bucks worth of business that day, closed, can't get the help. really? something. lauren: so sad. stuart: we're in business now, for five almost six minutes and the big board shows a loss of about 160 points for the dow industrials just a little under a half percent down. who are the dow winners in a down market? well i'll show you. walt disney is up there back to $123 a share. salesforce, proctor and gamble, j & j, visa, all active big board winners list. illumina tops the list from the s&p 500, moderna, gillead, nasdaq composite winners, illumi na, tesla, and ok ta, now 9.19 per share. the 10 year treasury we haven't checked that yet, i'll do it now

277. the price of gold is at 1,800 bucks an ounce, no it's 1,794. bitcoin just holding on to 24,000 bucks a coin. nat gas, oh, sorry oil, way down today, $5 lower. $87 per barrel. look, well that's the china slowdown. slowdown in china, less oil, price of oil goes down. nat gas also down, again that's the china slowdown probably. the average price for a gallon of gas, unchanged overnight. first time we've seen that in about two months 3.95 is your average. california look at that 5.36. coming up, the border crisis, oh , it's so bad, even elon musk is chiming in. we'll tell you what he said to our very own reporter, the star himself, bill melugin. congresswoman kamilla jayapal, downplaying inflation. roll tape. >> inflation is like a theoretical word that economists because but what families feel everyday is the up or down or cost. stuart: it's just a theoretical

kind of thing. economist stephen moore responds , to the congresswoman, in a moment. a california mom really pushing back, and i can understand this. against the new cell phone policy at her daughter's school. it says officials can read any text message between students, even after school hours. do you believe that? we'll bring you the details, in a moment. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ wow, we're crunching tons of polygons here! what's going on? where's regina? hi, i'm ladonna. i invest in invesco qqq,

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- look, why don't you call aag and find out what a reverse mortgage can mean for you? - [announcer] call aag, the country's number one reverse mortgage lender. - call the number on your screen. stuart: all right, the markets are still showing red ink but it's not that bad folks dow down 130, nasdaq a mere 40 points. the white house claims we had zero inflation in july. they are choosing to focus on the month-to-month number, however, new analysis shows just how wrong they are. hillary vaughn on capitol hill. how much is inflation costing,

the average household per-month, hillary? reporter: stuart according to the joint economic committee over $700 a m for the average american household just in the last month alone but even though prices are up over 8% in july, democrats are backing the president up when he said inflation was 0% in july, congresswoman primala jayapal, the chairwoman of the congressional caucus cutting inflation is not as important as bringing costs down for people in other ways. >> that is going to bring costs down for people, and it is ultimately going to lead to a reduction in overall inflation but most importantly, to the budget that people have every single day. inflation is like a theoretical word that economists use but what families feel everyday, is the up or down or costs. we have 0% increase in inflation in july. prices have continued to come down. reporter: but, a lot of prices haven't. meat is up over 7% in july, eggs

38% more expensive, fish up 8%, milk 15% higher, fruits and vegetables over 9% pricier from the year before, coffee is 20% more expensive, republicans say americans filling their grocery baskets do not feel like inflation doesn't exist. >> this bill will only make inflation increase and will prolong the inflation crisis that we're in. we're currently at an inflation of 13.7% since joe biden has taken the oath of office. you can not spend your way out of inflation and you definitely can't tax yourself out of a recession, but this is the democrat's recipe. reporter: the president is on a high after congress finally passed what they are calling inflation reduction act. the white house announcing today they are going to send cabinet members on to 23 different states over the next few weeks to campaign on its benefits. stuart? stuart: oh, good luck with that. all right, hillary i was just being sarcastic and facetious

but that's me. stephen moore is with us. a real genuine economist is with us this morning. stephen, i don't know if you heard congresswoman jayapal just a moment ago but she says this bill, reduction act, is going to save american families $1,000. what do you think, stephen? is that going to happen? >> yeah, well, according to her , inflation is just a state of mind, right? stuart: exactly. >> i think it's pretty obvious that when you add, look, let's be very clear about what happened on friday, and i think that it's a total abomination. congress increased government spending by $750 billion, and they increased taxes on businesses by roughly the same amount. both of those things, the increase in spending and the increase in taxes, both work in the direction of increasing inflation. if you increase taxes by $750 billion on our businesses, stuart, what do you think they are going to do? they are going to have to, many

will have to raise their prices to be able to afford to pay the taxes. stuart: yes. >> so all of this , everyone knows this. all of this gets passed on to the consumer. now the good news is, we've seen , it is true we've seen a slight decline in inflation. the july number was pretty good, but don't forget, when you have year-over-year inflation, of 8.5 %, everybody has different numbers. my numbers the number we put together at heritage is the average family is paying about $4,000 a year more in real terms, and what that's doing is shrinking the paycheck of middle class families, so that's why i call this a middle class recession. stuart: we're getting worse off, not better off. we're getting worse off and this will make it even worse. >> yes. stuart: i need your input on this , because i really don't understand it. the number of workers in america has dropped by 400,000 since march of this year. >> uh-huh. stuart: how did that happen? where did all of the people go? >> i think that i have a pretty good explanation for this. nobody knows exactly what's happening, but it's pretty clear

that one big factor is that during covid, we emasked all of these welfare programs and all of these payments, stuart, that paid people not to work, and again it's not complicated. if you pay people money not to work you'll get less work. stuart: but that moneys run out. >> not going back to the welfare reforms now that covid is over we still have not all of these but many of these programs still in place. let me give you one example. in the bill that just passed on friday, there is a massive expansion of obamacare free healthcare subsidies. that's not tied to work. this is going to actually encourage more people to dropout of the workforce, because look, you get from the government, stuart, free healthcare, free rent, free food, free this , free that, free payments for your kids. that's like britain during the 1950 when we paid people not to work. that is a disastrous policy and that's why employers can't get the --

you experienced that in britain right? stuart: yes, i remember it well but good explanation there, as to why we've got 400,000 fewer workers today than just in march of this year. extraordinary stuff. stephen thank you very much. i'm afraid i'm out of time i could talk about this all day. >> thanks stuart. stuart: we're still facing a 40- year high inflation but i bet we're going on vacation spending money. lauren: because we didn't for two years so now you want, you're craving that experience, and you saved up for it so look at these numbers. 6.2 million workers took days off during the first two weeks of july or technically june 29 to july 11. that was 7% more than the year before. we're feeling confident, confirm ed by the university of michigan data last week. vacations are actually getting cheaper, because gags is coming down, airfare is am coming down, ditto for hotels and we're see ing hotels, cruise lines, theme parks, lien las vegas all say spending is up, people are coming having a great time. stuart: good. lauren: beating inflation. stuart: but we need a vacation

don't we after all this pandemic stuff. lauren: but at some point, the party has to stop. stuart: okay. hey it's monday morning, don't be such a downer on a monday morning. lauren: sorry. stuart: here is something for you. united, that's the airline. lauren: where are you sending me stuart: nowhere yet. it's going supersonic. that's the overture, that is the world's fastest airliner. in a moment we'll tell you how fast it'll take you from new york, actually from newark to london, when it goes into service. lauren: two hours? stuart: three i think. democrats dodging questions on whether they'd support president biden in 2024. roll tape. >> are you encouraging him to run again? >> i'm encouraging him to focus on what's right in front of us. >> i don't want to answer that question because we have not, that's not, i don't want to answer that question. stuart: okay, peter doocy will have the full report, after this how do you get up from an

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psoriasis really messes with you. try. hope. fail. no one should suffer like that. i started cosentyx®. five years clear. real people with psoriasis look and feel better with cosentyx. don't use if you're allergic to cosentyx. before starting get checked for tuberculosis. an increased risk of infection, some serious and a lowered ability to fight them may occur. tell your doctor about an infection or symptoms or if you had a vaccine or plan to. tell your doctor if your crohn's disease symptoms develop or worsen. serious allergic reaction may occur. best move i've ever made. ask your dermatologist stuart: president biden might be on vacation, but he cannot dodge his low poll numbers, or the growing number of people from his own party refusing to

say if they'll support another run. peter doocy at the white house. what do you have on this , peter reporter: it's pretty interesting to see , stuart, because there is a lot going on in the world but president biden doesn't want to talk about any of it. >> mr. president? >> will you come talk to us? >> no. >> [laughter] >> [indiscernible] reporter: he plans to sign that climate and tax bill they call the inflation reduction about this week, and within the next two weeks, expect a major victory lap. we got our hands-on a memo written by jen o'mally dillon, and this line stands out " between sunday and the end of august cabinet members will travel to 23 states on over 35 trips touting the inflation reduction act and the administration's accomplishments" but the good vibes here at the white

house are not being felton the campaign trail. vulnerable democrats are still keeping the president at arm's length for personal, political reasons. >> so are you ready to get behind the incumbent president of the united states for re-election right now? >> yes, if the president is running for office -- >> if? >> if he's running i will support him. reporter: there's an item in politico today that half a dozen potential democratic presidential contenders have already started reaching out to south carolina democratic party officials laying the groundwork for potential primary runs just in case biden bows out. stu? stuart: peter i'm very glad that you used, you call the inflation reduction act a climate and tax bill, because you're right. and it is not an inflation reduction tax bill, but there you go. peter you're already, thanks for joining us, we'll see you again soon. check those markets on a monday morning, coming back very nicely , in fact the nasdaq has turned positive and the dow is only down a mere 30 points. still ahead, will cain, brian

kilmeade, kt mcfarland, and dr. frank contesessa. the 10:00 hour of "varney" is next. ♪ ♪ . .

♪. stuart: i tell you, this is what we should be playing right now, start me up. monday morning, it is almost 10:00 eastern time. lawrence is fired up with caffeine. so is everybody else. look at the money, we've got a turnaround, folks. we opened lower. do you was off 200 points. now we rallied. dow is up three, s&p down 2. that is nothing. nasdaq rallied up 13 points. narrowly mixed markets. treasury yield 2.77%. price of oil way down. news on china's economy is weakening that pushes oil down because of less demand from china presumably. 87 bucks a barrel. bitcoin touched $25,000 a coin over the weekend of the now it

is down to 24,160. just in to us now the latest read on homebuilder sentiment, very important for the housing industry. what have you got, lauren. lauren: fell six points to 49. if you're keeping track it is down eight months months in a rt the lowest level since may of 2020. low mortgage rates, high cost of construction impacting sentiment. stuart: not good i would say. jerry howard of the homebuilder association will join us later in the 10:00 hour. now this. the cdc seems to be admitting they got it wrong. they have changed some covid guidelines. they are tacitly admitting vaccinated people can still get covid. if you had it, vaccinated or not you do have some protection against serious illness. where does that leave all the people who were fired for refusing a vaccination that didn't work? with respect to the schools the cdc said students have been exposed can stay in class, no

quarantine. they must be aye symptomatic and wear a high quality mask for 10 days. because one youngster has been exposed quarantine is no longer recommended this is a retreat. this is reversal. instead of trying to eradicate the virus instead of slowing the spread the cdc is admitting we have to live with it. good. trying to get rid of it had dreadful impact. mask wearing and social stancing really hurt churn's socialization. face it, for many remote learning was a dismal failure. the whole country was divided by covid policy. red states started walking away from the cdc guidelines last year. it didn't harm their economies or their schools. florida and texas did just fine, thank you. blue states largely followed the cdc and paid the price. the truth is the country has moved on. the mood has changed. the anxiety level is way down. back to school has arrived, back to normal has broken out all

over. looking back on it, trust in our schools, truth in public health policy has been shaken and it will be hard to restore. second hour of "varney" just getting started. ♪. stuart: i need fire from my guests this morning, i'm just telling him that. will cain with us from the fox news channel itself. all right. the cdc finally catching up to the rest of the country, too late? >> absolutely too late. you said in your take which was absolutely fire, the american public lost trust in this institution. this institution is not alone sadly. i challenged some of the listeners on the will cain podcast to come up with american institution that retained credibility trust over the past years. teachers unions, science community, medical community can no longer define what is a

woman. cdc, irs, fbi, name me the american institution that truly retained credibility and trust. i challenge you. the cdc is done. if not formally, stuart, in effect. americans cannot simply take cdc guidance that it is free of influence of teachers union. not just that they got it wrong. pandemics are hard to predict, we make mistakes. many saw the mistakes as they were being made. you werefieded by the teachers union and biden administration. you do not get to come back out in another year give us guidance we'll take blindly on faith. you have lost the american public. stuart: well-said. i asked for fire, look what i got, furnace, that is really very cool. another one for you, the white house claims vigorously that the department of justice is not politicized after this raid thing. watch this. >> i cannot speak to that. it would be inappropriate for me to speak on that because the president has been very clear

and unequivocal about this when it comes to law enforcement matters, investigation, the department of justice has complete, complete independence. i'm just not going to comment on that. none of us will because we will let merrick garland speak for himself. stuart: you don't think the white house knew anything about this whatsoever before the raid? >> before i move forward let me take one step back. i want to say karol markowicz has a awesome column in the "new york post" about abolishing the cdc. move for word with karine jean-pierre. if you want me to believe this is free of politics, application of fair justice, you better come up with something. trust me the fbi is trying to. i think this is egregious. the nuclear codes change on daily basis to administration by administration bases. you better come up with something a red flag.

unequal application of justice. hillary clinton emails, hunter biden's laptop, suggest this was politicized move. as to the biden administration was informed or they know i cannot say. we can follow common sense think anything unprecedented would have to go to the highest levels. don't try to convince me. it is free of politics. the fbi is not free of politics. stuart: it is politicized. got it. hey, will, that was spectacularly good. >> i love being on "varney." stuart: what are you doing on a monday morning? good stuff. next case, florida's governor, ron desantis he was a headline at campaign for arizona republican gubernatorial candidate, that would be kari lake. she is a trump backed candidate. in his speech did he bring up the raid? lauren: absolutely. like will, he brought up the fire. >> these agencies have now been weaponnized to be used against

people the government doesn't like. you look at the raid at mar-a-lago and i'm just trying to, i'm trying to remember, maybe someone can remind they did a search warrant at hillary's house in chappaqua, she had a rogue server and laundering classified information. i don't remember them doing that. i do remember them manufacturing a false conspiracy theory about russia collusion. >> so, what did kari lake say about ron desantis? because she is very pro-trump. we hear all the reports of animosity between trump and desantis. she goes look, he brings trump's strength to florida. we embrace desantis. we embrace trump. i mean they're singing the same tune right now. stuart: nicely done. thanks, lauren. back to the markets, please. pretty flat this morning, this monday morning. a little red ink but not much. ryan payne is with me this morning. you know i read your stuff, okay. >> i'm flattered.

stuart: i read a lot of stuff. what is this about you're saying there is a bull stampede coming? >> look what happened last week. we had this inflation number came in much lower than expected. if you think about markets, stuart, the way they trade is the gap between expectations and reality. and every money manager out there has been very, very negative what they think is going on in the economy, what will happen with the fed and they have been dead wrong and now all of sudden they're sitting with more cab than they have had in 20 years with their proverbial pants down, we'll say it that way. now they have to play catchup. the market recovered half of the losses since middle of june. we're down 20%. what do we do as money manager? you have to get in the market, get invested which will cause this bullish stampede. stuart: fear of missing out. >> fomo. stuart: guys are managing billions of dollars. they're not in completely, they're worried i'm out of this, i have to get in, is that it?

>> if they had listen a month ago they would have made the right decision but they didn't. stuart: you're backtracking saying you got it right a among ago. you're saying a bull stampede a month out but takes us to where. >> highs by the end of the year. stuart: i have to nail this down higher than november of last year, new highs, this year, complete reversal. >> very realistic. s&p 5000 is realistic. oil is down -- stuart: s&p 500 at 5000 by the end of the year? >> you heard it here first. stuart: where is it now? >> 4300, 4200. stuart: that is a 20% rally between now and end of the year for the s&p 500. >> that's correct. stuart: you're on videotape saying it. >> when i come back and i'm correct stuart, i don't know we'll have to play the stones again. stuart: start me up. that is interesting, ryan. you make a good case. we'll be of course watching, hoping, praying that you're

right. let's look at some of the movers including poshmark. i never worked out what they do but they're up 12%. lauren: we start this one to talk about. it is online site where you sell new and used clothing. barclays upgraded them to overweight, price target from 13 to 17. they're not out of the wood yet with the consumer slowing down but the active buyer base is growing. if you ask me you get a discount on pork mark. i would think this -- poshmark. i would think this company would do well. stuart: what is with department force, dillard's. lauren: jpmorgan gave them upgrade, 298 from 210. their rivals filed bankruptcy or liquidated that benefits dillard's. stuart: i would imagine with oil, 86, 87 bucks a barrel. i imagine that exxon is way down today? lauren: oil is down four dollars. the world's largest crude

importer is china. their growth is slowing dramatically. you have iran. there are talks to revive the 2015 nuclear deal. iran's oil supply could come back to the market if iran and u.s. sate the offer from the european union right now. the deadline for iran to respond is midnight tonight. more supply, less people using it. stuart: thanks, lauren. 400 this migrants have illegally crossed our border at del rio sector, 400,000. the number is so shocking elon musk is chiming in. we'll tell you what the elon headline of the day is later. president biden meets with china's xi xinping later this year as they plan to conduct more military drills around taiwan. kt mcfarland has the store coming up. as we mark a year since the fall of kabul, a new gop report shows

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stuart: the markets are not showing that much change in price. dow down 30, nasdaq down 31. got it. moderna, that up or down this morning? i think it's up significantly, nearly 4%. the reason? their booster has been approved in britain. moderna up by nearly 4%. lauren: second best stock in the s&p right now. stuart: second best? okay. it is now officially one year since the taliban took back power in afghanistan. trey yingst is in kabul right now. trey, what is it like there one

year later? reporter: stuart, good morning. we've been in the streets of kabul today where taliban fighters are taking another victory lap. much of the civilian population remains fearful and in the shadows especially the american allies left behind. here is a look what it is like under taliban control. the 11-month-old struggles to breathe as his mother looks on. the african is one of one million children under five who are acutely malnourished in the taliban controlled country. it makes me very sad when i see him in condition. 35-year-old fatima explains. i have lost three other children. this is the fourth one. a year into taliban rule, afghanistan's economy has collapsed. the united nations now estimates 97% of afghans are at risk falling below the poverty line. the taliban's controversial and a ai can governing style increased international

isolation putting at risk billions of dollars of aid that acts as a humanitarian lifeline for this country. a strict interpretation of islam is guiding live under tall pan control making it impossible for separation between mosque and state. right now in afghanistan listening to music is outlawed. women must be covered when in public and the majority of teenage girls are banned from participating in secondary education. the taliban claims this is equality. are women free in afghanistan? >> of course. >> reporter: women can't go out in public alone at night. they can't serve in senior government roles. they have to be covered when they go into the streets of kabul. how can you describe this as free? >> the laws of the country regulate how people conduct themselves when in the public. that does not in any shape, way or form mean that someone is free or is not free.

>> reporter: we also pressed taliban fighters about these topics today and they are adamant this is a society that will be ruled by islamic law. stuart. stuart: all right, we hear you. trey yingst right in the middle of it in kabul, afghanistan. thank you, trey. ktkt mcfarland is with me. one year after the takeover by the taliban, one year on, what are your thoughts on the withdrawal now? >> it has a shambolic withdrawal because of the way biden did the withdrawal. the point at which united states power in the world began to inexorably diminish. when we leave americans behind, our president says this is great victory, everything was done really well the american people look and scratch their heads we don't believe you, what are the pictures showing us? but the rest of the world looks at that, right, america is in decline. it has a president who doesn't know what he is doing and the withdrawal is a perfect example

of that. stuart: do you think that putin would have invaded ukraine and xi xinping would have encircled and threatened taiwan in the way they did had it not been for that withdrawal? >> not only that withdrawal. there were other factors as well but that withdrawal made the united states look incompetent and impotent. the other thing that encouraged putin to do it when the price of oil went up. biden's war on american fossil fuels drove prices sky-high. what did that do? it gave russia the resources and piggybank to go to war. what did it do for china? maybe this our window, our opportunity to be more aggressive on the world stage particularly with taiwan. stuart: kt it was reported this morning that president biden and xi xinping are going to meet in november of this year. what could we get out of that meeting, america, what could it get out out of the meeting bearg

in mind, you're laughing but it is election time. >> yeah. i mean i guess biden thinks he will get an election bump? here is the thing about the timing of that. the timing is in november. what will happen in october? so the chinese are going for their party congress. happens every five years. they will elect a new president. well the new president will be the same as the old president, xi xinping. he will have an unprecedented third term which effectively makes him emperor for life. he will be doing that amidst all the potential discipline problems he has in his own economy an his own domestic problems but then who will come lapdog behind, hey, well-done, xi xinping, you're now emperor for life, joe biden will come. biden may do it for american political purposes. he may do it to shore up somebody's legacy, but it will be perceived throughout china and asia, here is the chinese president, emperor for life, here is the guy to come

kowtowing to china? the american president. the symbolism of president american president going hat in hat going to china, it will be spun differently in the united states. you can't spin it around asia and around the world. the world will look at the picture. this is a picture of america in inexorable and inevitable decline and here is china with an emperor for life which will be the dominant superpower in the world. stuart: is biden's foreign policy a success, an outstanding success anywhere? >> maybe in his own mind? i don't think anywhere in the world. certainly not in any sense that matters. i mean look at the united states. where are we in international organizations? we're not leading international organizations, china is. where are we on energy independence, in fact our energy dominance? we're not energy dominant anymore, we're not energy independent anymore. where is our economy? our economy is sputtering around

the world. where is the ability to take asian nations into anti-china or containment of china organization? that is not happening either. it is sort of step after step. the problem i find with anything the biden administration does he never foresees the consequences of his actions. war on fossil fuels. did they not think that would drive the price of oil sky-high? raid on mar-a-lago. did they think there would not be a reaction on part of the american people to a raid on a president's house? come on. stuart: come on. didn't the president say that come on, man? he says that. kt mcfarland, thanks for being here. always a pleasure, see you soon. >> thank you, stuart. stuart: group of lawmakers following up on speaker pelosi's trip to taiwan. they're in taiwan at the moment. who is there? lauren: democratic senator ed markey of massachusetts. he is leading the delegation, joined by democrat house members, john garamendi, john low when thal, representative

don buyer from virginia and a delegate from american is a moment yaw. they're there to discuss things of interest, u.s. taiwan relations, security, trade, climate change. since speaker pelosi's visit taiwan's defense ministry said china sent missiles, warships, warplanes into the seas around taiwan and today some crossed median line of the taiwan strait that is the unofficial barrier between china and taiwan. it is provocative. china's military says this, we continue to train and prepare for war and will resolutely crush any form of taiwan independence, separatism and foreign interference. stuart: foreign interference okay. lauren: consider that, another delegation foreign interference. stuart: that is asia. let's go to our southern border. the crisis there is getting so bad even elon musk is chiming in. he responded to our star reporter bill melugin. what has musk got to say about the border. lauren: he seemed shocked no one

else was covering what fox is covering and what bill melugin is tweeting, that is what he sees. bill tweets this, these two large groups totaling 200 plus crossed illegally into eagle pass this morning, predominantly single adults. eagle pass is part of the del rio sector which has seen approximately 400,000 illegal crossings since october. bigger than the population of new orleans. musk responds in disblow leave, 400,000 from one border crossing in a year? bill made that it correct. musk responds, strange this receives little attention in the media. more are attempted to cross the river. well, people are playing on u.s. golf course. look at this, that is the backyard. stuart: that is what local people have to put up with when they're on the border.

lauren: yep. stuart: those young men are walking across, they're supposed to be turned back. they just walk in there. everybody walks in. no big deal, you're playing golf, that is what you see. no one is talking about it. stuart: media not reporting on it. when you think about it, no reports. goodness me. rising prices causing many young adults to move back in with their parents. roll tape. >> this your place? >> no. no, no, no. no, i live with my mom. >> oh. >> yeah. >> you hungry? hey ma, can we get some meatloaf? stuart: what a dreadful thing. we've got the story coming up for you, believe me. homebuilder confidence down to its lowest level since may of 2020. real estate guy jerry howard is on the show. he will give us the state of the housing market. that is next. ♪

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♪. stuart: looks flat doesn't it. that is des moines iowa, iowa is flat. lauren: it looks green.

stuart: green and flat. 71 degrees right there right now, if you like the music we play, just follow us on spotify. you search "varney & company" or scan that qr code right in the middle of your screen. we're running a free music service here. we really are. what a service we have. check the markets please. not much price change. we have the dow down 20. nasdaq down 26. lauren: it is flat like iowa. stuart: flat like iowa. okay. we're looking at movers. let me start with gaap, gap. lauren: they own athleta version of lululemon. they might be exploring a spin off of that athleta brand. stuart: tell me about beds bath beyond. lauren: highly shorted stock. it is being bid up by traders forcing short sellers to unwind the bets by buying it back at

more expensive prices. it is at $14 but up 180% this month because of the social media chatter. stuart: we're back to that. lauren: we're back to that. stuart: disany. lauren: dan loeb's hedge fund has taken a huge stake. wrote a letter to bob chapek and the board. they want to make changes. that they spin off espn. suggest cost-cutting moves. they were behind the push to disney plus to streaming a few years ago. we'll see what happens with this one. stuart: disney is up on the news. 123 per share, got it. earlier this morning we found out homebuilder confidence dropped to a reading of 49. that was the month of august. more than half of homebuilders believe business conditions are bad. jerry howard is with us. he is the ceo of the national association of homebuilders. he joins us now. is home building sinking? i mean inclined to expect that. i see construction about everywhere i go?

>> i think there is still a lot of projects underway. the fact our index has declined for eight straight months, the fact it is now below 50/50 being neutral, means that we are sinking. we're approaching a point where we have to say we're in a home building recession. stuart: that means that there is just not enough homes to go around now, that gets even worse in the future. does that mean those home prices go up the same demand? >> well, certainly means that you're going to have a supply constraint. that would indicate if we don't go into an overall economic downturn, that prices would go up, making housing affordability all that much worse, leading to what i guess will be one of your next stories about kids moving back in with your parents. that's right. >> first-time home buy requires being priced out of the market. stuart: priced out of the market, first-time home buyers. that's because of what?

because prices are up so much? >> the cost of construction for homes in the price point of a first-time homebuyer is so high, it can't be done officially by most builders. so there is a real shortage of homes across the board but particularly at first-time home buyer price point. that is the price point, that is the segment of the market which really drives everything in single family. first-time home buyers are able to buy homes it helps with the move-up buyers, it helps with the baby boomers starting to downsize. it even helps with the availability and prices of rental housing so until we get something going on here in the first-time home buyer sector we're going to be in a real problem in housing. stuart: do you get any help, any relief for the housing industry in this inflation reduction act? >> zero. in fact if anything that bill would discourage construction of single-family housing. stuart: why?

>> it puts in place or encourages local governments to put into place what are the in essence federal building codes and we just think that's a bad idea. it's something that hasn't ever been done before and increases the cost of construction again. stuart: in which state if you can tell me this, in which state are the most new houses being built? i would guess florida or texas? >> texas and the carolinas are really strong markets. idaho is very strong. stuart: jerry, thanks so much for joining us. we're about to do the story we told you about earlier, what you're interested in. here we go. more young adults than ever before are living with their parents. as jerry said because they're having a hard time buying their first home. lauren: let's put a number on it. it is 25% of young adults are moving back with their parents. that is up from 9% way back in 1971. these are boomerang kids. they moved out and moved back

for variety of reasons. happened during the pandemic. they're struggling to afford rent or their own home because prices are so high. you live with mom and dad really nice, in terms of meals cooked, laundry done. stuart: used to be you're out fairly soon. here is another one, beginning today, mcdonald's launching of a week of deals. this is honor of back to school. what are the deals? lauren: so today the mcchicken sandwich, one dollar and one cent. breakfast sandwich and coffee for 2.01. chicken mcnuggets 3.1. then friday, big mack and fries. stuart: i think -- lauren: i think the 01 is play on mcchicken 101. back to school class how they beat popeye's in having a great chicken sandwich. going out on a limb. no one pays with cash.

they pay with credit and debit cards. stuart: really? lauren: sew would be annoying if the teller had to give you 99 cents. stuart: so i'm annoying the tellers? lauren: i think about that a lot. i think they get annoyed when i give cash, right? so much easier for them to do nothing for you to put the card in the slot, right? stuart: i suppose so. i will move on. this is a serious subject. i have to move on to it. polio was found in wastewater in new york city. are our children safe? good question. dr. frank contasessa will break it down in the next hour. novak djokovic not allowed to play in the u.s. open because of covid rules that has john mcenrow fired up listen. >> i think it is bs. the guy is one of the greatest athletes in any sport. he is very careful about anything he puts in his body. it is really unfortunate. stuart: i'm with john mcenrow for sure.

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stuart: the markets are showing very little price change this monday morning. the dow is down 15, the nasdaq is down 12 but take a look at the pot stocks, please. the ceo of tilray says the legalization of cannabis at the federal level would be a 100 billion-dollar opportunity for the united states. we still have not done it even so pot stocks are up this morning. nice gains, 5% up for tilray, 5% for canopy growth. i have extraordinary video to show you.

ikea shoppers in shanghai, rushing from the exits prevented from leaving. what is going on? lauren: health authorities are locking down the ikea, they learned one person in the entire store had been in contact with a 6-year-old who did not show any symptoms. so they went on the loud speaker and they said we're shutting down. so when everybody heard that, they rushed to get out so they wouldn't be stuck in quarantine. the security guards tried to prevent them. it was a mob. for those people who didn't get pout a large majority of them, they had to stay until 8:00 that evening in the store. they're taken to a quarantine hotel. that ikea doesn't open until tuesday. how do you survive by that draconian level of lockdown. stuart: you survive by getting out. lauren: i feel so bad for them. stuart: that is zero covid. thank you very much. japan's economy is back to its pre-pandemic levels.

what fired up japan? lauren: what a parallel. end of covid restrictions. they were all lifted in march. the second quarter starts in march. then the second quarter, well after march, thank you very much. april, may, june. in april, may, june, japan saw the size of its economy rise to over four trillion, more than it was before covid. stuart: tale of two asian countries. china locking down and japan opening up. lauren: opening up. they get back to the growth they had before covid. stuart: here is another story that intrigues me, tennis star novak djokovic is not allowed in the u.s. open because of covid rules. lydia hu has the story. why can't he compete? >> reporter: federal government requires proof of covid vaccine for foreign travelers. that is required for novak djokovic. that requirement still stands. the cdc revised guidelines to

treat vaccinated unvaccinated people limiting social distancing after exposure. wheel djokovic assured fans he wants to play in the u.s. open and this travel policy continues to prevent his participation, that is not sitting well with 10 is legend john mcenroe. watch this. >> i think it is bs i think he should be allowed to play. my personal opinion, i've been vaccinated. i had a booster shot. that is up to the individual. it is really unfortunate. reporter: now it is up to the federal government to change the travel rules. according to a statement issued by the cdc it is reconsidering the requirements for travel but there is no timeline on a decision. so with only two weeks into the u.s. open some are getting frustrated and pointing to hundreds of thousands of migrants streaming across the southern border with questionable vaccine statuses. >> maybe novak djokovic just needs to head down to mexico. put his backpack with the tennis

racket on, head across the southern border and head up to new york city to play in the attorney meant? >> reporter: one last point, stuart, new york city granted exemptions for unvaccinated athletes. so they could play in the big apple? the same city that is going to host the u.s. open. one example of how many rules on covid who can do whats when and where. according to protocals. just produce results that leave your head-scratching. stuart: just makes no sense, that's a fact. lydia great story, thank you very much indeed. lydia, see you again soon. after the raid at mar-a-lago, the fbi and justice department warn of increased threats to law enforcement. terry turci worked at the fbi deal. he will deal with that in our next hour. abc's jonathan karl calling out the white house claiming that massive spending plan will bring down inflation. watch this. >> congressional budget act, office which is non-partisan said there would be a negligible

impact on inflation this year and barely impact on inflation at all next year. isn't it almost orwellian? stuart: glad youught it up, jonathan. the report directly contradict what is democrats are saying. brian kilmeade takes it on next. ♪ i got into debt in college and, no matter how much i paid, it followed me everywhere. so i consolidated it into a low-rate personal loan from sofi. get a personal loan with no fees, low fixed rates, and borrow up to $100k. sofi. get your money right. hi, i'm eileen. i live in vancouver, washington

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♪. stuart: why do we have a look at big tech? all of them are down. apple, microsoft, meta, alphabet, amazon, all down, not by much but red ink across the board for big tech. it is 10:51. you know what that means, brian kilmeade joins us now. brian, unvaccinated novak djokovic can't compete in the u.s. open because he can't get into the country unless he is vaccinated. i think this is absolute rubbish, brian. i'm appalled by it. i think you are too. at least i hope you are. >> upset when australia did it too, it made no sense. we have to use our heads. i looked at the cdc new guidelines. i don't know if you seen them. now they changed now the election get close. we will not differentiate

between vaccinated unvaccinated people. no longer six feet apart. no quarantining. we can't let one of the most fit, athletic people in the world play tennis against somebody else 30 feet away hit a ball? after you done with the court, do me a favor, after you're done, go to the locker room, we'll set up a little room for you. you're the best player in the room. the people of queens and the people of america at the u.s. open deserve to see you. what an embarassment. john mcenroe said i got double vaxed and booster, says he has to play. what an embarassment. stuart: why doesn't he fly to mexico, get a backpack, go to the southern border, walk across because he doesn't have to be vaccinated? >> i would pay him to do it. i would pay him to do it. hop on the bus, texas bus and be greeted by eric adams at the port authority t would be fantastic. he will stand out.

absolutely. i will chip in for that one. let's get serious. karine jean-pierre was asked if the inflation reduction act was orwellian, roll tape. >> it is called the inflation reduction act, but the congressional budget act, office which is non-partisan said there would be negligible impact on inflation this year and barely impact inflation at all next year. i mean, isn't it almost orwellian? >> making sure that billionaires in corporate america are paying their fair share, making sure that the tax code is a little bit more fairer. so when you do that, when you put it in its totality you will see that it will, it will bring down, lower the deficit, which will help fight inflation. stuart: george orwell's book, 1984, was about perversion of truth at government level. that is what is going on here because the inflation reduction act does not reduce inflation.

>> bernie sanders said it. all the other experts. cites that 100 economists it will reduce inflation. doesn't make any sense. in fact the minute it passed, matter of him signing it at this point, they started immediately saying $369 billion worth of climate investment, highest in the american history, excuse me. i thought it was about reducing the deficit. excuse me, inflation. as soon as it passes they pose it for what exactly it is. it is embarrassing. this is insult to us. like they're saying today afghanistan was a success. endless war had to stop. excuse me, way it ended, what you did, ignoring reality, that is the issue. if you want, you want to reduce inflation what you do you reduce spending is one of the things you can do. at the same time you up interest rates through the fed which is happening. this whole thing of spending instead of cutting it is a new way to handle inflation. called your agenda, not what is good for the country. stuart: i would love to know who

it was who invented this name, the inflation reduction act of 2022. who did that? they have to have a sense of humor, a cynical sense of humor to do that because it is the perversion of the truth there you have it. i'm afraid i'm out of time, brian. normally i like to extend these things as long as i can. i have a hard break. you know how this works. >> even more powerful than the host of the show, the hard break takes precedence. stuart: it does. you don't want want to be cut on your prime. here is goes. brian, see you soon. >> thank you, stuart. stuart: joe concha, patrick de haan and dr. frank contecessa. inflation reduction act of 2022, we talked about it has nothing to do with lowering inflation and the democrats know it. that is in "my take" next. ♪

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>> none of these records should have been taken by the government. all of them should be returned. they want to drag this on for months, up until the election, shortly after the election, into the new election campaign for the

presidency. >> if you want me to believe that this was free of politics, this was simply an application of fair justice, you better come up with something, and don't try to convince me. it's free of politics. the fbi is not free of politics. >> the average family is paying about $4,000 a year more in real terms, and what that's doing is shrinking the paycheck of middle class families so that's why i called this a middle class recession. >> the market now has recovered half its losses since the middle of june since they were down 20% and now it's like what do you do as money managers? you have to get into this market and invested which is going to call this bullish stampede. ♪ stuart: this music is just, look at that, serene. yeah, you like to start the show at the top of the hour and really get worked up. we're talking politics on monday

that's serious stuff here. stuart: okay it is 11:00 on the east coast and monday, august 15 and look at those markets, down across-the-board but not by much , dow is off 60, nasdaq is off 40. show me big tech. down pretty much across-the-board and i don't see a winner there at the moment apple, microsoft, the whole, they're all down fractionally. check out the 10 year treasury yield where are we now? 2.78% down just a little. all right, now this. whoever chose the name has a very cynical sense of humor. i'm talking about the inflation reduction act of 2022. its got nothing to do with lowering inflation and the democrats know it. but they also know that inflation is their biggest problem, and they ought to be seen doing something about it. so, they slap a ridiculous name on a massive tax and spend bill. they must but we're really

gullible. polls consistently show that climate change is way down the list of voter priorities, but climate is what the inflation reduction act is all about. they've simply dressed up climate with a different name to make it somehow more palletable. democrats don't like the tax and spend label, so they stick an inflation reduction label on a gigantic tax and spend program they play the inequality theme constantly, and then say, they only want to take money off billionaires. that's nonsense. they are going after small business, and telling us that somehow, that cuts inflation. they are sticking big companies with the minimum tax as if that won't be passed on to consumers with higher prices. how does that cut inflation? the president will sign the inflation reduction bill this week, but with less than three months to the elections, it's nothing more than an exercise in expensive and deceptive political spin. third hour of "varney" starts right now.

you got to look at this because i think it's an agreement with my editorial moments ago. it's in "the hill." biden front runner for lie of the year award, as many in media look the other way. joe concha wrote than at joe concha is sitting right next to me now. the word lie is a tad strong. i call it deceptive spin. >> interesting to be called an invalid truth. a lie is a lie. inflation reduction act, stu. why don't we just name the big m ac, this is an idea, the waistline reduction sandwich because it only increases inflation or at least does nothing about it and you had this administration that thinks the american public is very very stupid, because when they start renaming these things , right, or when the president says we had zero inflation last month, that's not how inflation works, right? it goes year to year. what was in july 2021, what is

it now in july 2022? 8.5%, there's no spinning that and a friend of mine gave me a great analogy. he said let's say you have 104 fever and you're really really sick and a day later it goes down to 103 you're still really really sick but you can't say hey, i don't have a fever any more because it went down one point. stuart: that's true. >> that's where we're atria this point. they rename what recessions mean , they rename what infrastructure is in terms of re defining that and inflation is not what you see and feel everyday you go to a supermarket stuart: that's obviously, frankly but we've got a host of msnbc saying people want to see trump treated like a criminal. roll that tape. >> i think a lot of people want to show the difference in this country, the difference in the justice system that many people navigate. i think a lot of people do want to see , you know, donald trump handcuffed like an episode of cops and walking out. >> of course. >> we want to see a perp walk on trump.

stuart: the most ardent trump haters. >> exceptionally well by the way. stuart: they want to see trump in handcuffs. >> yes. absolutely. stuart: what about everybody else? >> everybody else sane and sober people don't like the fact that you have a district, i'm sorry, attorney general, merit garland, who is investigating the potential opponent of his boss. merit garland should be recusing himself right now. just like jeff sessions did before the russia investigation, right? because at this point clearly he's compromised. he works for joe biden. he works for the president, and joe biden may very well be challenged by donald trump, but i don't know why we listen to these people, stu. these are the people that said there were russian bounties on u.s. troops and they presented the steele dossier as gospel instead of the gossip that it was and i could go on and on about russia collusion. stuart: i presented that sound bite to show everybody this is what a section of the population is thinking. to me, it seems that the trump derangement syndrome has been going on for six years and it

ain't over. they hate him so much they want to see him in handcuffs or anything else. >> they just don't want to see him on the campaign trail. stuart: how long will this run for? >> forever. as long as donald trump is running for president, then you will just see this movie over and over again, but no one really trusts the messenger. stuart: they will still go after him even if he says i'm not running in 2024. >> you know why, right? stuart: tell me. >> they don't want to talk about the issues, inflation which we just talked about and gas prices still being above $4 and crime skyrocketing in cities across the country and education system going sideways and u.s. border allowing 4 million people to come into the country in legally in the first two years of his presidency, the fentanyl crisis killing young americans, and they make it all about donald trump and the person instead of what people care about, the things that affect them everyday. stuart: you've got a point, joe concha. >> you're all right, stu. stuart: you've got your son in the audience. >> my son and daughter are both

here. stuart: can't put them on camera lauren: your daughter is crawling. that is a first. stuart: i've gotta move on at this point, don't you care adjust that. joe thanks very much, sir. got to get back to the markets. you know what we do here? we do politics and we do money. we've done politics extensively. here is the money bit. not that much change for the market this morning the major indicators we got the dow down 26 points, and nasdaq is down 19 and s&p is down 9. we're not used to this. hardly any movement. things are calming down. let's see if jason katz, our market catcher of the morning thinks that. first of all, is the market calm ing down because people think inflation has peaked? >> it's calming down because it's summer. a few doors away at ubs, you could hear crickets in my hallway today, but it's also the hope that inflation has peaked. we talked about this months ago, rather weeks ago with respect to the market. is it at a bottom and my answer to you then was, it's not a point in time. it's a process.

the same exact thing could be said for inflation. it's a process, so the operative word, stu, are less bad. it's encouraging that cpi and pp i are less bad. it's encouraging that we're see ing gas prices, oil prices, wheat and lumber come down but let's have no illusions here and joe said it before. 8.5 some odd percent inflation, you still have that 103-degree temperature and you're still sick, so this is a six-12 month process at-best to get to the fed's target of roughly 2% inflation. stuart: okay it's a little less bad on the inflation front. >> exactly. stuart: any other positives or mild positives i'm thinking about employment for example, or maybe the hope of a soft landing for the economy? positives? >> for sure. so look, negativity was so pervasive and so many investor were caught off guard. they didn't expect the job numbers to be as strong as they were. they didn't expect inflation to perhaps have peaked here and they didn't expect the fed may

take their foot a little bit off the gas, but look, the money who is so massive , we're talking about the most cash on the sidelines since not only the covid crisis but since the fall of lehman brothers, so it's fomo and look, the market is unlikely, like one of your previous guests said this morning to get to 5,000 by the end of the year. the nasdaq is up 20% off the lows. stuart: that forecast was really out there. that's an outlier forecast. >> s&p up 15% off the lows we're at 18 times earnings so trees don't grow to the sky but at the same time they don't fall forever so i do think that we found a market bottom, and we are at peak inflation. now we have to get that 103, joe , down to 100 and maybe 97. >> 98.6 is a normal temperature my wife's a doctor. stuart: if we get the temperature down to 98.4 on inflation, we'll be looking good. >> indeed. stuart: all right thanks very much, jason. always good stuff and we'll see you again soon.

>> very good. stuart: looking at the movers. gillead, is up 4%. lauren: they have a breast cancer drug and positive survival rate data. so with that, the stock is up 4% stuart: okay, we had homebuilder sentiment, pretty bad this morning. what's with the homebuilders? lauren: the u.s. is in a housing recession, as you heard here, an hour ago and you have homebuilders including kb home down not drastically but in the red on that report. stuart: there's something on the prompter which i don't know, vita cocoa. lauren: drinks, the drink people like a coconut drink. it's a pretty big move of almost 9%, they got a series of price target increases today, evercore puts them at 15. it's interesting. stuart: wait a minute so there's pricing power for coconut milk? lauren: no price target increases, but yeah that stuff is expensive too. can't tell you the last time i had it. it's not cheap. stuart: is it still popular?

almond milk, and all the rest of it? lauren: i think it is. i'd say yes. an 8% move is big though. stuart: that is a big move. lauren: there's a lot of movement in the food stocks. stuart: what was the price target? lauren: evercore isi had it at 15 so it's near that right now. they went from 13 to 15. not a very convincing day but it was a big mover. stuart: never been there. >> if you mix captain morgan with it, suddenly it becomes really tasty. stuart: that be rum wouldn't it? >> i found that out saturday. lauren: it refreshes you, big in the yoga community. stuart: that's what i was looking for , an explanation of why coconut milk is good for you i'll move on. lauren: coconut water. stuart: you have to be entertain ing because there's not much movement. one company claims, this is i'm interested in this , this is what i want. lauren: [laughter] stuart: a company claiming their new plane can fly between new york and london in three and a half hours. i want it. it's just like concord.

gotta do it. iran claims they were not involved in the stabbing attack and the country had previously offered 3 million bucks for anybody who would kill him, with ev a report. the fbi and department of justice say there has been an increase in violent threats, following the raid on mar-a-lago is that domestic terrorism? we're into it, next. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ we believe there's an innovator in all of us. ♪ ♪ that's why we build technology that makes it possible for every business... and every person... to come to the table and do more incredible things.

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call today to request your free bond guide. 1-800-217-3217. that's 1-800-217-3217. hi, i'm denise. i've lost over 22 pounds with golo 1-800-217-3217. in six months and i've kept it off for over a year. i was skeptical about golo in the beginning because i've tried so many different types of diet products before. i've tried detox, i've tried teas, i've tried all different types of pills, so i was skeptical about anything working because it never did. but look what golo has done. look what it has done. i'm in a size 4 pair of pants. go golo. (soft music) stuart: let's get back to the raid on mar-a-lago. we're just learning that the justice department has opposed a request for an independent review. ashley webster is right there at mar-a-lago. the latest, please, ashley? ashley: yeah, hi, stu.

yes, indeed. the lawyers for donald trump had asked the justice department to review some of those documents that were taken from mar-a-lago behind me, one week ago. some of those papers were reportedly marked "classified, top secret" but the president says, whoa wait a minute some of those documents were in fact most of those documents were declassified by me. now, the justice department pushed back on that independent review request saying no, even in the case of documents that maybe protected by attorney- client privilege. the kind of documents where donald trump be talking to his private attorneys, but, the doj and through the fbi said no dice meantime, donald trump, by the way, spoke with fox news digital this morning. it's the first time he's spoken to any media since the raid, and he agreed during the interview that the temperature of the country needs to be brought down. he says he's going to do whatever he can and he's already told his representatives to reach out to the justice department to offer help. apparently, there's been no response yet from the justice

department, but, trump went on to say this. "the country is in a very dangerous position. there is tremendous anger, like i've never seen before, all over the scams, and this new one. years of scams and witch hunts and now this " so clearly the anger from donald trump coming through in that interview with fox news digital and by the way we're waiting for florida magistrate judge to rederivative a decision by 5 p.m. on making the affidavit that was attached to the search warrant public. that is the key document, because that affidavit will layout all of the reasoning behind the fbi's raid, one week ago here, so we'll wait and see. most cases, stu, they do not release the fine details of the affidavit unless it goes to an indictment and we could be many months away from the justice department decides what the to do after gathering all of these documents here. stuart: this is such an extraordinary case, raiding

the home of a former president whose engaged in a presidential campaign. that is ridiculous. that's something different. >> right. stuart: ashley good stuff. the fbi and justice department are warning of increased threats to law enforcement following the raid. terry church is with us he's a former deputy assistant director at the fbi. terry, do these threats add up to domestic terrorism? >> well, they certainly have the potential to do that, stuart , and in the report that you just had, the term, "the temperature is up in the country" any time the company is up in the country especially in response to something like the fbi raid last week, you're going to have an increased threat of terrorism , so it's only natural that from the domestic terror perspective, the report that was issued, the fbi agents, fbi personnel should be more alert and pay attention to what's going on they could become more susceptible to this. what really is troubling to me is, and i worked domestic

terrorism all through the 90s primarily on the front lines in the mountains of north carolina and in the continental divide when we were arresting the uni bomber and all the things that went with that, and i have to tell you that what is really mysterious to me here is we try to foresee these things ahead of time. if you're going to take a step, you need to know the consequences or all the range of consequences of that step, and i just don't think anything has come to light that would have merited what happened last week in the way that search was conducted, and so they actually asked for this , and you do not reduce the temperature in the country by this continuous display of bad decisions, and i'll give you a direct example. inside the fbi, go ahead. stuart: i need to get this in. republican congressman mike turn er, he wants merit garland to testify about this raid. just watch this , roll tape,

please. >> no one is above the law. donald trump is not above the law and attorney general garland is not above the law either and congress has the powers of oversight. he needs to comply. we've seen material like this before. we've seen materials that have been submitted to courts for warrants. this is not unprecedented. his actions are unprecedented. stuart: do you think that the fbi, actually, politicized itself? >> well, yes, and i don't even think that's an arguable point anymore. remember, they brag about the robert mueller transformation of the fbi. he transformed it to a national intelligence agency, and it automatically defaults to being at the beck and call of politicians. that's what that means. it used to be an investigative agency, so we do need to have these hearings, and we need, these need to be the beginning, but we need to start cleaning up what happened to the fbi over the last 21 years, and the only

way to do that is to roll up your sleeves and get started right now. stuart: what's morale like within the fbi right now? and do we know if any fbi agents objected to being involved in the raid? was there any internal dispute about it? do you know? >> i have no information specifically about that. i can tell you i've been bombarded with e-mails and calls from former fbi agents. i know they're all upset. this is not the fbi that we worked for. we'll alltel you that. almost to a person, what is going on inside the fbi now, i don't know. i don't think fbi people now even understand the difference between the "new fbi" and the fbi we were in. we had independents and we voiced it and we really were able to express our judgment about things like raids and searches and the conduct of them way before we ever engaged in something like that and we encouraged it so that we would make sure we avoided the very kinds of things we're seeing now

we don't need the temperature in america to be any higher. stuart: terry, since you're involved in anti-terrorism, moscow now says if america designates russia as a state- sponsored terrorism, it will be "a point of no return." what does that mean? >> well, i don't know what they mean. i think what they are trying to do is threaten and they are trying to of course make a lot of noise so we won't do that but let's face it. russia and china over the last 10 years had become very very close and are essentially allies of other countries who are state sponsors of terror. obviously cuba, obviously iran, north korea is potentially in the mix. all the things that could go on again in afghanistan, so we need to be paying attention to this. they need to make the best decision they can, but again, they also need to understand the consequences. when you make a country a state sponsor of terror if we have a bomb go off here and we start arguing about whether or not

they might have been behind that , or not, we better be very careful about the decisions we make, because responding to something like that means we respond with some sort of an attack and there's a big difference in attacking russia and attacking the iraqis. stuart: yes, there is. terry, thanks for being with us. you know what you're talking about and that helps us a lot and we appreciate it. we'll see you again soon. >> thank you, stuart. stuart: yes, sir, you got it. iran gave a statement on the stabbing of solemon rushdy. years ago they offered a bounty on him. lauren: $3 million then. they're denying any involvement. instead they say rushty should blame hill self and his supporters. he was stab stabbed on friday right before he was supposed to give a speech in western new york. he has liver damage, nerve damage, likely going to lose an eye. the alleged attacker plead not guilty. he had been condemned for years by iran's

late iatola for the book that he wrote back in 1989 the "satanic versus" and since then they wanted him, his head with aishah hasnie bounty of $3 million. and now he's stabbed and they are denying involvement. stuart: how are we possibly negotiating a nuke treaty when this is going on. lauren: can we trust them? stuart: i'm not going to answer that one. polio has been detected in new york city wastewater. why is that happening? i thought we eradicated polio decades ago. we have a report on it. the average price per gallon of gasoline is 3.95. the big news is prices have stopped falling after weeks of decline, we've gone unchanged overnight. still 3.95. gasbuddy, patrick de haan is going to tell us where to from here. ♪ yes i'm going to be a star, you can drive my car and baby, i love you ♪

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♪ stuart: what are we playing? lauren: i knew you were going to say that. stuart: reverb on that one "like a g 6". okay! that there is hartsfield jackson

which otherwise is known as atlanta airport where it's 80 degrees looks kind of nice to me and now we're playing a song, there's a reason. lauren: uh-huh. stuart: because the world's fastest airliner is set to debut this reminds me of concord. lauren: it should. okay, you won't hear, you know, supersonic boom. you aren't going to hear that on the ground with this one it's called the overture, that boom is going to happen over the ocean. stuart: just like concord. lauren: united signed a deal to buy 15 of the jets supersonic travel. it can fly at mach 1.7 over the ocean that means you can get from new york to london in half the amount of time, three and a half hours, tokyo to seattle eight hours. it can carry 80 people. do you think supersonic travel is making a comeback? will people pay in this case it's five to $8,000 for a round trip ticket. stuart: five to 8,000? lauren: uh-huh. stuart: they will pay that. i believe they want to take off from newark airport, not jfk, newark airport and fly over to london in three hours and 30 minutes. lauren: thought it was new york city but okay. stuart: people will pay for that lauren: you might have to wait,

2029, i think, is the earliest they will launch this. stuart: sure, but i have the good fortune to fly on concord a few times and it was a sensation. it's a terrific experience. lauren: did you feel it being in the plane? stuart: yes, yes. you're sitting there it's like a thin pencil. this was concord years ago and you're sitting there and the captain would come on the air and say you might feel a little kick in the back as we put on the afterburners. sure enough, there was a readout on the front of the plane how fast it's going, and suddenly, woosh. it would go 700, 800, 900 a thousand miles an hour. lauren: anybody could go on on the concord, you didn't have to have physical ability to handle it? stuart: you have to pay for it. lauren: they retired it back in 2003 so i've never been. stuart: maybe you'll get on this new one. if you can, do it. it's worth it. we better check the markets. not that much movement quite frankly. we've got the dow down what, 15 points? the nasdaq is down 1 point and the s&p is down 7.

not much movement. now, this. fox news contributor phil flynn who says saudi arabia could be looking to take advantage of america releasing oil from the strategic reserve. jeff flock in philadelphia. how would saudi arabia gain from us releasing a little oil from the reserve? >> well we're not releasing just a little, stuart. we're releasing a lot and that gives the saudis an edge when it comes to pricing if we've got less ammunition to fight them with. fairness to president biden, i think the release from the spr has brought prices down but at what cost? take a look at the spr by the numbers right now. you know it holds 727 million- barrels of oil. by the time president biden took office, it was down to 638 million-barrels. that's 88% of capacity. now, we are down to 464 million- barrels. that's 64% of capacity and if we look at what's ahead, more oil to be sold, a million barrels a

day, through october. that'll take us down to the lowest level since 1983 about 49 % of spr capacity now is it half empty or half full? i don't know, depends on your perspective. what phil is concerned about is that opec now is saying in q 3 it's going to pump less oil per day, about a million barrels plus less per day, because we have put this oil into the market and prices are going to then stay high and if we get another price spike, it's going to be bad news for us because we have less ammunition. here is one thing i want to leave you with. the last four presidents, what did they do with the spr? only president biden president bush added to the spr when his administration was done, 162 million-barrels added. president obama in eight years drained 18 million-barrels. president trump in four years drained 57 million-barrels. sounds like a lot, until you look at president biden who in less than two years has drained

173 million-barrels. that's a lot of oil. stuart: yeah. just let me add this. saudi arabia, saudi aramco, the oil company, made a profit, a profit of $48 billion, just in the second quarter. that's a three-month timeframe, 48 billion profit that's as much as apple makes in even a very good quarter. i thought i'd leave you there with that. >> that's real money. stuart: yeah it is. the price of a gallon of regular gas, sitting at 3.95. that's the one in red bottom right hand corner there. no change from the previous day. gasbuddy patrick de haan with me now. patrick, prices seem to have flattened. they now start going backup again? >> well, stuart, that certainly was in the realm of possibility here. we've seen the national average declining nine straight weeks, whether or not we get to 10, well as you just showed their oil prices dropping today, a little over $4 a barrel on china

's economic worries, the potential that it seems like that for the 40th time iran is talking about this nuclear deal. will it eventually happen pushing oil down so the drop today may open up the door for us to potentially get to a 10-week decline, stuart, but i think we're getting closer either way to seeing national average to decline start bottom ing out. diesel prices now maybe the beacon of hope. they could drop under a national average of $5 a gallon here this week. stuart: okay, is demand down? we hear a lot about demand destruction because of high prices. can you tell me conclusively that we are demanding using much less gasoline? >> i can tell you that, certainly in a concrete way, according to gasbuddy down 1.6% last week, now that's a seasonal decline so before we start to worry the economy is in shambles we do tend to see gasoline demand drifting lower, schools are starting to reopen, vacation

s are wrapping up so there is a softening to gasoline demand that should continue in the weeks ahead. stuart: i'm reading between the lines, patrick, and you don't sound like you're convinc ed that prices go backup again. in fact you seem convinced that prices, diesel, and gasoline, will continue to drift down slowly. is that your forecast? >> well, stuart, i think we could remain below $4 a gallon nationally with the exception of a major hurricane, of course keep in mind we still have in the peak and prime of hurricane season, for potentially the next four to six weeks or so. i'm hopeful that will stay under $4 for gasoline but we could go backup. i'm hopeful that if we do we will not be going backup to $5, but still, everything is on the table. there's nothing impossible, just things that are improbable and i think that's $5-gallon average is improbable. stuart: i don't know whether you cover natural gas, but i look at nat gas over in europe, where it's like five, six, seven times the price that it is here in new york, and the price of nat gas

at the moment is 8.64 per million british thermal units. does that price go up or down as we approach the heating season? >> well, stuart, the eu and germany has done a good job filling up its reserves. now at 75% of capacity of course they want to hit benchmarks of 85 and 95% in the months ahead. it's looking okay now but mother nature could come in and ruin that with colder than expected weather. the eu will remain sky high. we'll have to see if they continue their injections of natural gas ahead of the winter but for now maybe a little bit of a break and keep in mind u.s. exports are set to increase when the freeport lng terminal comes back online in the next couple months. stuart: you got it, patrick de haan, good stuff, thank you very much see you again soon. >> thanks, stuart. stuart: parents divided over one schools new phone policy. school officials can read their student's text messages even after school hours. that's setting up a huge privacy

debate and we are on it. look at this. 500 migrants cross through egg el pass, texas into america, in the span of one hour. lauren: they're all men. stuart: that's right. bill melugin has the border report after this. ♪ stuck between a rock, and a hard place ♪

stuart: in just one hour, yesterday, more than 500 migrants crossed the border illegally at the eagle pass entry point in texas. bill melugin is there. all right, bill. it was so bad, even elon musk responded your report. what do you got for us? reporter: yeah, stuart, good morning to you. that's exactly right. he tweeted at me and was surprised by some of the images we were showing, and said that

he is surprised that it's not getting more media coverage, that's something we agree with, but you talk about the numbers. listen to this. just in the last 24 hours alone here in the del rio sector, dhs sources said there have been more than 2,200 illegal crossings. that's continued today. take a look at this video we shot earlier this morning. it's raining, storming out here, and that is not slowing things down. this is a group of about 200 that crossed illegally, all of the exact same time. they are predominantly venezuela ns and cubans, but we saw much bigger groups yesterday take a look at this piece of video we shot after sunrise yesterday in normandy outside of eagle pass, this is a group of 300 who crossed illegally all at once predominantly single adults there aren't as many kids or family units anymore, and you can take a closer look at the video and a lot of these people are dressed very well with smartphones, air pods as they wait for border patrol, and you'll then see that some of

them start walking over to a local highway almost walking on to that road, before they are stopped by texas dps troopers. then this third piece of video, another group yesterday, two groups actually totaling more than 200 people crossing illegally here into the eagle pass area, once again, all single adults for the most part, and listen to these numbers. just since october in the del rio sector, there have been 401,000 illegal crossings. that's double the same time last year, and it's equivalent to the city of arlington, texas, coming across the border. now, yesterday, i spoke with texas congressman tony gonzalez, he represents this area. he just got back from visiting those northern triangle countries. he met with their leaders. here is what he had to say. >> i recently visited guatemala and i sat down with the president there and i asked him, hey, what the would it take in order for you to take back more guatemalans that do not qualify for asylum and his answer is all it would take a phone call from the president of

the united states. biden has failed to even call these leaders from northern triangle. i sat with the foreign minister el salvador and she said they have never spoken with the biden administration. reporter: and what the congressman said is pretty remarkable. essentially the leader of guatemala and el salvador say they have heard radio silence, essentially nothing from the biden administration recently, despite the biden administration claiming they are trying to solve the root causes of migration, in those specific countries. we'll send it back to you. stuart: bill you know you're a star when elon musk starts to watch you and tweet about you. well-done, young man, well-done indeed. see you again soon. thanks, bill. overnight, another busload of migrants arrived in new york city. all right, what do we know about this? who was on the bus, families, single men and how were they greeted in the city? lauren: let's watch them coming off and they appear to be mostly single, young men 52 people in all. a few families but just a few,

and that's what we've been see ing since these buses started arriving last week. 400 people in total in the past 11 days, 400 people. just to contrast that to what bill melugin reported, texas, that one sector, the del rio sector, 2,000 in one day so how were they greeted? mayor adams is overwhelmed by it , doesn't like it, 411 days, one sector in texas, 2,000 in one day you can't compare. stuart: this is a sanctuary city they be so proud of it oh, we'll take everybody but not now. lauren: did you see this? some migrants had the cops called on them when the bus heading up the east coast from texas stopped in pennsylvania, a pit stop, a mcdonald's worker says the migrants were panhandl ing. roll the tape. >> and the two young ones kept on growing from here to over there to the gas station, just trying to get money from people saying they got dropped off and they are trying to get to the airport to go to florida.

had to get the police to remove them. lauren: we don't know exactly where their bus was headed, but -- stuart: they wanted to go to florida. lauren: i'd want to go to new york city if i were coming across, opportunity, the dream, right? stuart: sanctuary city. big apple. why not? thanks lauren. it's that time when we give you a sense of the market look at that. all 30 of the dow stocks, it looks to me like about two-thirds are up and one-third down. very roughly speaking. i don't do math very well and the dow is up 49 points. 33, 800 that's the level. the cdc just updated its covid guidelines, just in time for back-to-school. one big change? unvaccinated youngsters no longer have to quarantine if they have been exposed. a doctor is here to respond to that. the doctor is next. ♪ turn the beat around, love to

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stuart: one mother has sparked a serious online debate about privacy, after posting new cell phone rules at her child's school. okay, what are the rules and what's the problem?

lauren: yeah, okay so the mom posted the rules, and she said this. this is part of the tweet. school officials can read any text messages between students even if the texts occur outside of school hours. nope, nope, nope! that's been liked more than a half million times. a lot of people agree with her that kids should have privacy if the school wants to read the messages during school hours , okay, for some people, but after school hours, that's not their property or their right. stuart: right. and that's the debate about privacy fair enough. now i really want to get back to this video. it's actually extraordinary. ikea shoppers in shanghai are seeing, they're seeing i don't know what that is, let's go to the video tape please. in shanghai this is an ikea store, rushing for the exit. take us through it. lauren: because the loudspeaker just went off in that shanghai i kea saying there's one person exposed to covid in this school. we've laider found out it was an asymptomatic six-year-old kid

people heard it and ran for the exits because they didn't want to quarantine for days. some got out but for everyone else that didn't they stay in that ikea until late that night and then taken to a quarantine hotel. stuart: what? if they couldn't get out like those that did get out they stay in the store for a few hours and are shuttled off to a hotel and quarantined? lauren: yes, in quarantine for a few days and undergo multiple testing and this happened over and over again. remember that nice island in china they call it the hawaii there? they kept all the tourists and the vacationers in quarantine. just like that. snap quarantine, lockdown, there's exposure or too many cases and then you're stuck footing the bill for this expensive vacation. stuart: over here, the cdc has updated covid guidelines for schools. students who have been exposed can now stay in class, they no longer have to quarantine. they have got to be asymptomatic and wear a high-quality mask for 10 days but nonetheless no quarantine. dr. frank contacessa is with us.

doctor, do you agree with this change? seems to me like it's long overdue. >> i do agree with the change, stuart, good morning and thanks for having me back. you know, when i see that video i shake my head in disbelief and every time i think that the cdc is a little bit behind the current guidelines i look at what's happening in other parts of the world like in china and shanghai where they are pursuing this aggressive zero-covid policy and i say well at least it's not that bad. so yes, i certainly do agree with the changes and really, the changes also have to do with vaccination status prior to these changes, if you were un vaccinated, or not boosted, the recommendations were different, and now, they are finally catching up to the science and reality on the ground which is that it really doesn't matter at all for transmission purposes, whether you had the vaccine or were boosted or not so yes i totally agree with these current guidelines. stuart: doctor, polio was just detected in wastewater in new york city. i can't see this being a big problem, or a big concern,

because i thought that most americans are fully vaccinated against polio. >> well that's true, stuart. most people are, but the vaccination rates are diminishing over the last few years and that's for a couple of reasons. it actually started even before covid. the controversy of whether the childhood vaccines were responsible in some way for the increase in autism that we've seen over the past 20 years, have led some communities , religious communities and some people to not want to vaccinate their children out of fear of autism. that led into covid during which the politicization of vaccines and that sort of a thing also shied people away, so the rates have gone down. when you see that they've detect ed polio in the wastewater , doesn't mean that there have been cases of polio. there have really only been one since 2013. one case, doesn't mean that people are getting polio and getting paralyzed. it's a warning sign and it means you have to stay vaccinated for

polio. stuart: yes, sir. dr. frank contacessa thanks for joining us, sir, i'm moving on real fast here. the monday trivia question here it is. where were the first o limericks held in greece? 1,225 bc, 899, 776, why so precise? the correct answer is after this if you used shipgo this whole thing wouldn't be a thing. yeah, dad! i don't want to deal with this. . . have to wai t around here again. like ever. that can't be comfortable though. shipgo.com the smart, fast, easy way to travel.

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guess? >> number two. 1092 bc? stuart: i'm saying 776. on -- thank you, everybody. the games were held that summer 776. they were created to honor the greek god zeus. athletes would leave gifts to thank him for their success. my time is completely up. i want to introduce, say, hi to david asman. david: you have a such a fine oiled machine. the people are really good. it was my pleasure, stuart. thank you very much. welcome to cavuto "coast to coast." i'm david asman in for neil. looking for markets to kick things off. they are vitally higher to reverse earlier losses. a new report saying one big part of the u.s. economy is shrinking, not growing. why the workforce is signaling a slowdown. homebuilders say the u.s. is already in a housing