feel based on what you say on a television screen or in a newspaper. ultimately that's what's going to go on, brian, people will vote with their wallets and feelings. brian: that's such a good point. there's story lines and then there's the story line, you've got to pay attention to the difference. we have to leave it there, joe. thanks for being with us. that's it for us on "the evening edit" we elizabeth macdonald. we'll see you next time. maria: welcome to the program that analyzes the week that was and helps position you for the week ahead. i'm jackie deangeles in for maria bartiromo. the latest analysis for the inflation reduction act shows families are more likely to get tax hikes than breaks. the media blames republicans for fear mongering about the irs budget. house rankerring member kevin brady will respond.

consumers slammed. feds calling inflation exceptionally high and planning additional rate hikes and i'm asking wealth market strategist how long it could last and where he's putting his money right now. and a new energy tax that will increase your pain at the pump. u.s. oil and gas association president tim stuart sounds off. first, the hill claiming the gop making the irs a boogie man and wrote "as republicans rail against the fbi in the wake of the search at mar-a-lago, they're hyping the danger to voters from another three letter federal agency: the irs". washington post fact checker glen kessler tweeting in part, "the gop is praying on people's fear of an audit, which is basically nil". joining me now house weighs and means committee kevin brady. let's dig into the so-called inflation reduction act and the notion that an expanded irs will

increase audits and taxes on those making less than $400,000 a year. the administration says absolutely not. some of the bipartisan and nonpartisan committees that review these numbers essentially say, it's impossible that it won't impact the low and middle class. your thoughts. >> yeah, the democrat claims that there are no new irs agents in this bill is really -- which is parroted by the media, is frankly the big lie in this bill. look, it's been debunked by treasuries own documents, by congressional budget office and the joint tax committee on taxization and by the bill itself laying out only 3% of this new funding going to customer service. the bulk goes to enforcement. and common sense is the congressional budget points out says if there are no new irs agents, how do you squeeze $200 billion out of taxpayers? the fact of the matter is, treasuries own documents, page 16 of last year's treasury plan

on how to force people to comply with the tax codes lays out the nearly 87,000 new agents and joint committee on taxation and congressional budget lays out how middle class families, i call them budget shoppers. those who i would see, my neighbors at wal-mart and target and others, will face about 710,000 additional audits as a result of this bill. so, look, it kind of makes sense. more cops, more arrests. far more agents and you'll see far more audits. jackie: yeah, this notion is the irs is the boogie man, that might be a bit of a perrlative way to look at -- superlative way to look at it and their tax percentages or brackets baa they'll be paying more on top of everything else they're paying more more. >> jackie, i've been on the weighs and means committee and

in congress for 26 years. for many, many years, privately irs would tell you they believe the tax sheets are, you know, farmers -- cheats are farmers and small businesses and they've never been able to figure out how to target them, but i think plan a was that banks have their own scheme. remember the track transactions and accounts over $600, that didn't get across the line so plan b has been to unleash tens of thousands of new irs agents and the congressional budget office again, independent sources said tens of billions will come from the middle class families. jackie: moving on, congressman, president biden canceling nearly $4 billion in student debt this week for people defrauded by itt tech. for everyone else, the federal student loan pause is set to expire on august 31st. biden could extend that or keep his campaign promise to forgive student loan debt for millions of americans at a time that the administration, the democrats, just continue to spend. what do you make of this?

>> yeah, so, you know, if you didn't like paying off your student debt, wait till joe biden forces you to pay out of someone else's student debt and that's where he's trying to head. it's not legal of course to do this. i think -- i just think ethically it's wrong to force people who have either worked their lifetime to try and afforo afford college or work add lifetime to pay off their debts to be forced to do this for other who is made their own choices but the president is desperate, his poll numbers are still rock bottom panel toll. they're trying desperately to salvage this november election. they're going to fail and a good point too by the way on the inflation reduction act, people aren't buying this. three out of four voters in the new poll yesterday said that they believe this bill will either make inflation worse or no impact whatsoever and independent voters by a 2-1 margin say it'll make inflation worse than better.

jackie: most people can read between the lines and with respect to forgiving student loans if biden goes down that road, of course, people like freebie that could help the democrats in the midterms, it could help his poll numbers go up but having said that, could also be detrimental to the country. meantime despite some of the policies. gnat minority leader mitch mcconnell down playing the chances the senate will flip in november and says there's a greater chance for the house but not the senate. and you've got some messaging like this as well. the new york times op ed calling the republican party a threat to the democracy and how concerned are you about republican chances in the midterms and the senate is definitely much tighter but given how people feel, what the sentiment is out there, there's hopes that both the house and senate can turn. >> yeah, look, democrats aren't going to give it to us. they're desperate right now and they'll say and do almost anything and they'll continue this on through november but there is fear mongering by the new york times and other media

fear about republicans, but truth of the matter is i'm confident that republicans will take back the house and voters will do that. i'm hopeful that's the case in the senate as well because everything has been so radical with this administration, and almost every american is living in a very cruel economy thanks to joe biden and his bungling of the economy and you see rise in crime in our state. obviously this border crisis, these humanitarian crisis is just cruel frankly in our state, and i think other states are starting to figure this out as well. we are, but we are as republicans, we are not taking anything for granted. we'll earn this win and end with a very positive agenda that focuses on families and not on some radical agenda. jackie: yeah, i'll add the last cpi report showed fuel price came down and having said that housing and fuel costs went up in the inflation reduction act and new gas tax that could raise

gas prices and we could see them go further from here. congressman kevin brady, thank you so much. near record high inflation cutting into consumer spending. kekenny is here with the affectn your investments, next.

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i have tried to lose weight in the past and i've lost 80 pounds several times, but i was not able to maintain it. with golo, i've maintained this weight loss for over a year. it just works. jackie: a look at where markets ended the week after retail sales for july came in flat and below expectations and shoppers are indeed paying more at the stores and the feds still calling inflation exceptionally high. joining me now slate stone wealth chief strategist kenny markari. this has been my prediction moving past the summer and heading into the fall, you'll see that and it'll be reflected in corporate profits. companies already guiding a little bit lower. warning as well. many tech companies have started slowly laying off. i think this is the kind of

stuff that builds up heading into the colder months. what do you think? >> i agree with you 100%. to your point, we were all told that by the -- during the earnings season as the ceos and cfos were indicating about slowing down hiring and starting to lay people off. then we've heard it in the week subsequent, we've heard of the layoffs beginning to happen and to your point, it'll happen more now as we move into the fall. jackie: yeah, let's talk about the markets and their reaction because we've seen a pick up in trade, we've seen markets move higher in august. essentially on the notion that okay, the cpi number came down, inflation doesn't look as bad so jerome powell won't have to be as aggressive, kenny, on rate hikes and maybe not three quarters of a point but maybe a half point and the market likes that, i understand. but having said that it's not moving higher because the fundamentals are improving and that troubles me. >> i agree with you and that's going to be the problem because it's moving higher based on the fact they've convinced

themselves that the fed will slow. that inflation has in fact rolled over and is dead. inflation is not dead, we're still running at 8.5% year over year, which is four times more than what the feds target is at 2%. why anyone is talking themselves into the fact they think the fed will start to pull back or pivot is beyond me. do i think this rally is a bit long ended tooth? i think it is and we'll test lower as we move into the end of august, end of september and october, which tend to be seasonally difficult times of the year anyway. jackie: i know the last cpi number pulled back to the 8.5%, kenny, but many are forecasting gas prices will go up with this new tax and the inflation reduction act on big oil and gas companies and that's one aspect and with all the excess spending and chips act and anything else in the inflation reduction act, that hasn't hit the market yet since the bills have been just signed. >> that's right so we've yet to

see; right, what the impact of that will be. look, the congressional budget office has already come out to say that the inflation reduction bill will do anything but reduce inflation. in fact, their argument is that it'll increase inflation yet nobody on the left wants to admit that or discuss that. they're going to point to, you know, the cpi which rolled over weeks before it was even put into place that the inflation reduction act is already starting to work, which is really amazing to me. jackie: yeah, let's talk about jerome powell. even if he backs off just a little bit from where expectations were in september, kenny, initially before all this spending, the expectation was he might be a little aggressive through the end of the year but that next year we could possibly see rate cuts again. your thoughts on what the pattern looks like given the balance here. how the administration is leaning on jerome powell and we'll put the pedal to the metal and we'll continue to spend. powell, it'll be your problem to fix it.

>> right, that's exactly what they're saying and i don't see how the fed will at all be able to cut rates in 2023, especially if inflation remains elevated, which i think it's going to. in fact, i think it's going to turn up again before it ultimately levels off and goes down and so i see continued hikes through the end of this year. i see continued hikes through at least the first half of 2023. then especially if we see inflation kick up even more as a result of the two spending packages and the fed will be in a position to continue tightening beyond what the market expects will happen. i'm continuing to expect that there's going to be chop ahead. jackie: okay, if that happens, if your prediction on the rate hike is correct and i agree with you, what happens to the housing market? that has been one of the thins that's been hold -- things holding everything upright now because inventories have been low and they'll probably stay relatively low and some are forecasting the housing market take as big hit and others are saying it'll pull back a bit but stabilize moderately. your thoughts because that plays

into the picture here too. >> of course it does. that's going to be completely dependent upon how aggressive the fed has to go. every time the fed raises rates, mortgage rates follow. we're now kissing 5.5, 5.75% raising rates by 75 basis points in september, they'll kiss 6% and if they continue to raise, mortgage rates in 6.5 to 7 and 7.25% and that's going to put a cap on housing prices. it has to. you can't afford -- you know, people cannot afford mortgages at 7 or 7.5% with prices where they are. so there's going to have to be, you know, a fallback in certainly areas that have gotten way, way out of control. other areas, you know, that maybe were held back a bit that didn't spin out of control will see of declines, but i think the housing market is in for trouble. if you bought a house recently, you have to expect to stay in it for at least the cycle and the cycle is at least a decade.

jackie: we're in for a rebalance as well and we'll be watching closely and lots to follow after labor day. many thanks, always great to see you, kenny polcari, thank you. >> thanks, jackie. jackie: prices at the pump declining from this year's record highs but the clang could cause them to spike again. a new tax you should know about, next. >> $12 billion in new taxes is in this bill against the fossil fuel industry. i mean, they are killing the middle class and the poorer americans in this country with this bill.

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jackie: the biden administration says lowering gas prices is a top priority but republican lawmakers are warning the inflation reduction act will only make it worse.

that's because of a revived and increased oil fee that will be passed along to consumers at the pump. joining me now is u.s. oil and gas association president tim stuart. tim, so glad you could join us to talk about this important topic today. gas prices retreat add little bit bringing some relief for americans at the pump but the expectation as a result of these new taxes is that prices will continue to move higher. 16.4 centss, that's a new tax on every barrel of oil. the expectation is they passed that right along to the con consumer. >> jackie, thanks for having me. that is a great point with regards to the inflation reduction act. honestly there's some other things in there beside that very sort of visual 16-cent fee per barrel. that's going to have obvious impacts on consumer prices but even the long term residual impact is what's happened to the federal lands component and the number of hidden fees and taxes

put on the small producers go forward trying to conduct federal leasing. that's equal if not more concern for the american consumer is what's the long-term tail going to be on this thing. jackie: the administration continues to say that tapping the spr has been the right move. it's helped them reduce prices at the pump whereas some people say, you're depleting the spr without refilling it if we have an emergency, this could be very problematic, and the million barrels a day really hasn't helped out that much. having said that, why aren't they tapping producers, incentivizing them instead of taxing them to produce more and put more supply on the market? >> a great question. we've been asking that as well. we've got in ground all across the lower 48, a reserve that's bigger than anything we can put in the petroleum reserve. we're waiting to see how the drawdowns when they end in the middle of october, we're waiting

to see exactly how much market distortion was built into that. i think if i'm the white house economic adviser, i'd be telling my twitter team, jackie, to back off because some of the tweets they've been putting out about gas prices won't age very well and there's a great deal of uncertainty about where the markets will go and particularly when they go up probably in the fall. jackie: what do oil and gas executives tell you about sentiment in their industry when this is an administration that came in on day one, tim, and essentially said we want to put the fossil fuel companies out of business and responds with the inflation reduction act and its massive climate provisions to promote clean energy and the agenda adding insult to injury here coming to domestic oil and gas? >> without a doubt, in my 30 years working in this industry, the past 18 months has been the most difficult regulatory and

political climate that our industry has ever been in. it's been incredibly difficult and you're exactly right w. you come in on day one and essentially tell the global markets we're going to de-bank the u.s. oil and gas industry and we'll do everything we can to drive them out of business, it has long-term impacks. to our credit, jackie, we've responded and plowed through that. our production is up. our rig counts are up about where they were pre-covid, which is great news for production and consumers. the sentiment on my members and the u.s. oil and gas association is made up among the industry and the small independent and family owned companies. we're like the farmers, we're price takers and we can't do much about the world market beside get product into the system. i have an interesting knicks between the bears and bulls on my side. i grew up on a farm and my dad watched the weather religiously, and i think our -- my memories are doing the exact same thing watching the markets religiously.

on the bear side, oil prices where we were in january. there's recession fears and indicators and china slow downs and what happens if raining crew gets dumbed in. they're watching that and on the bull side, oil prices are where they were in january as well. first half of the year characterized by supply-side constraint saint, and we've caught up to that and there's a large drop in inventories and the bulls are pawing the ground saying we think there's particular upside in the market going into the fall. the impact of the peak spl troat yum is the dis--- t petroleum is the distortions and if you pull it off the market, there's significant impact. jackie: pull it off the market and put it back in the coffers and i applaud the oil and gas industry for ramping up production and i know had we made more investments a year and a half ago, part of me had the industry made more that production could be

substantially higher from where it is right now and gas prices would be substantially lower instead of seeing this president go over to saudi arabia and try to talk to the countries to get their production up. it's really very frustrating for some. put it that way. my thanks to tim stewart. always good to see you. thank you. >> appreciate t thanks. jackie: don't go anywhere, more wall street after this.

jackie: welcome back, maria will be back with another big show next week so tune into wall

street every tried at 7:00 p.m. and catch her 10:00 a.m. sunday morning on the fox news channel for exclusive interviews with senator marsha blackburn, lieutenant governor and new york senate candidate joseph. start smart every weekday from 6 to 9:00 a.m. with mornings with maria on fox business. that'll do it for me, thanks for watching. gerry: it may not be what republicans want to hear. this is biden's border crisi