ashley: very good. lauren? >> boston, question mark? ashley: i would have gone with boston too. we're all rubbish. the answer is new york city. >> darn. ashley: the parade was held on september the 5th, 1882, no, start varney did not cover that. he did not. mark, lauren, thanks so much for being here today as always. neil cavuto it is yours. neil: ashley, thank you very much for that. corner of wall and broad there is a little bit of buying. there is a lot of confusion over the some slowdown information that might get the fed slowing things down. don't necessarily buy that but we've seen consecutive days of selling that sliced 1600 points off the dow. we're trying to claw back today. this is push and bull over the overall economy whether these rate hikes started to ding the economy, key parts of the economy. i want to go to gerri willis

following that and a lot of other big headlines. on the jobs front an interesting development, gerri. reporter: according to payroll processer adp adding inflation worries reported annual pay up 7.6% for the month. private payrolls grew by just 132,000 in august. that is a dramatic deceleration from the 268,000 july gain. economists had expected even more, a gain of 300,000. service jobs accounted for most of the new jobs with 110,000 added positions. leisure and hospitality grew by 96,000. meanwhile shares of snap are rising after the company announced it will lay off 20% of its more than 6,000 member workforce. ceo evan spiegel telling the employees the company needs to restructure to deal with financial challenges. in addition to the layoffs, the

company will scrap several projects including its pixie photo taking drone and its lineup of snap premium shows. the company say being its 8% revenue growth rate is well below expectations. and finally shares of hp are lower after the company reported fiscal third quarter sales down 4.1% from a year ago. the numbers pushed lower by 32% decline. number of notebook computer units sold. earnings a disappointment. hp lower than expected quarter following less than stellar results from rival dell and chip-makers like intel. neil, back to you. neil: thank you for that, gerri. this is the kind of stuff the federal reserves follows and the betting seems to be when they gather next week, next month i should say, will hike rates by 3/4er of a point.

mark sandi, mark let me ask but the data. whether it warrants the aggressive fed tightening we've already seen. what do you think? >> well, i think job growth is slowing but not as much as today's data would suggest. i suspect we get the data point from the bls, bureau of labor statistics on friday will show a job gain of 250-k, 350-k. obviously down from 500-k, average monthly job growth over the past 12 to 18 months but it is not slowing up, to be consistent with stable unemployment we need job growth no more than 100,000 per month. we still need to see significant slowing. from the fed perspective they want to see slowing now, not three months from now, not six months from now that would argue for more rate hikes, obviously the rate hike in september you mentioned but also in november and december. they got more work to do. neil: so that next move in september, are you in the camp that that it is going to be 3/4

of a point? >> i'm not going to debate with anybody if it is half a point or 3/4 of a point. the we'll see what the job number is on friday. cpi will look really good for month of august. will show decline because of decline in oil and gasoline prices but probably the deciding factor will be so-called inflation expectations. what people think inflation will be in the future f that stays about where it is today i say, 3 have 4 of a point. but if it comes in like it has since powell's speech last week at jackson hole maybe 50 basis points. 50, 75, i will not debate anybody. neil: bottom line it has gone up a lot, right? i was doing a little gander at rates now versus where they were a year ago. guys i think we have a printout of this if we can. for example, short-term rates obviously had the biggest move. if you look at fed funds essentially zero, now 2, 2 1/2%, that neck of the woods, could be

3 1/2, four. think of where we were. 3-month bill was essentially flat a year ago, now 1%. one year bill was essentially 0%, 1.7%. two year note, not a you quart i of a point, 3 1/2 today. 30-year fixed rate mortgage going for just under 6%. theres was a little surprised. a year ago at 4.29%. we haven't seen a doubling in the mortgage rates, nor have we seen in the 15 year fixed. i only mention that as we take a look at one year cd and five-year cd, the fear impact, all the rates followed consumer, lending rates followed what is happening on the shorter term rate front we would be in even worse shape, wouldn't we? >> obviously. i think the key interest rate, the rate that is having the biggest impact on the economy is 30-year fixed-rate mortgage at

6%. if you go back to the low point in rates which was not quite about a year ago, maybe, you know, year-and-a-half ago we were down to 2.65. so you know from the bottom in rates, in the wake of the pandemic till now, that is more than a doubling of interest rates. 6%, that is, give you a statistic, median household making median income, buying median priced home, 20% down payment, paying current mortgage rate today compared to when it was 2.65, my monthly mortgage payment is now $700 more a month. that is a big difference. why is the housing market is struggling with this. why home sales are down to degree they are. first-time home buyers are getting locked out. the rate effects are significant and accumulating but as you know, neil, rate hikes affect the economy with a lag. these rate hikes will affect the economy more significantly as we move toward the end of the year, certainly by this time next year. neil: a lot of people looking at capitol hill making the fed's

job a lot tougher. this latest measure the president wants to forgive a lot of folks student loans, up to $20,000. 40 million americans will take part in that, presumably enjoy that for a lot of others who won't are not happy about it, but this argument it is going to make fighting inflation tougher, you're not buying that. you're saying there might be other factors but this isn't one of them. could you explain? >> yeah, sure. a lots of reasons why one might not like this plan and others might like it but i don't think, you know, what it means for the economy and particularly inflation, certainly in the near term in 2023, 24 should be a factor. neither here nor there. just to break that down a little bit, you know the debt forgiveness part of this, that is inflationary because you forgive debt. that frees up borrowing capacity. people spend more that is growth, obviously in the current environment that would mean higher inflation, but, the fact that as part of the plan people who aren't paying on their student loans now will have to

start paying at the start of the year, that's, they're going to pay on student loan, they can't buy as much stuff. so that slows growth and that works to weigh against inflation, disinflation. so you net out all those crosscurrents, headwinds, tailwinds, inflation, it is basically a wash. like it, dislike it, i get it but that thinking shouldn't be based on what it means for the economy, certainly not what it means for inflation in the near term. neil: i see your point but you could argue net-net, when they start repaying loans beginning of the year including those who are not part of the republicans called the gravy train here, they will be paying less than what they had been and i'm just wondering if that itself when factored becomes the inflationary threat down the road? there is a delayed response and the delayed response is higher prices? >> yeah. there is a lot of arithmetic here. i with i will say the economists

look at the, at the debt forgiveness, there is a wealth effect. you feel wealthier. you are wealthier. you have less debt that has a small historically impact on consumer spending but if you ask people to start repaying on the debt that cashing flow, kind of a loss of income, that has much higher impact on spending. take those things into consideration. again, it is pretty much a wash. we're talking basis points on either side of this. so i'm not sure that this should really be part of the discussion. neil: all right. in the scheme of all federal spending i heard some one say this is just a spit in the ocean but it's a big ocean. we'll see what happens. >> and i would say, i would say at this point we should be focused on deficits and debt, don't get me wrong. i think that is very important. any policy we do do, no matter what it is we should think about it in the prism what it means for the fiscal situation. neil: we never do that. we never do that. we just don't do it.

with he refuse to do it. both parties are guilty of that. mark zandi, great seeing you, moody's analytics chief economist. erin gibbs with us now, the main street asset management cio. erin, on this view that more washington spending, that this is just the latest wrinkle, the loan forgiveness but there is the inflation reduction act, there is the chip measure, that's a lot of planned federal initiatives. what do you make of it. >> no, i do. i think we've already been able to somewhat measure the impact of the american rescue plan from covid and that basically created its estimated two to 4% of inflation came from that act. when you start adding up all these additional acts, again, very big estimates but we're still estimating between one and 2% of an inflationary pressure. when all we're trying to do is fight it and get it back down. neil: does it complicate what jerome powell wants to do?

>> absolutely. neil: if he was thinking half-point cut does he premove to make it a 3/4 point cut? >> the fed loves to say data dependent. they will wait for it to happen then react. neil: these responses are delayed when it comes to federal spending. >> exactly. neil: another wrinkle in the future. >> ultimately what it means we'll see rate hikes further into next year rather than what wall street was hoping initially of even cutting rates sometime in the second half of next year. neil: that is off the table as far as you see it? >> like once these plans gone through, that says we'll not see rate hikes for next year because we have so much money coming in next year through federal programs. neil: what does next year look like to you, then, economically? some people say, recession. others argue we already have the classic definition of recession but i need something that picks up considerable steam south ward? that is the lay yacht for next year, do you buy that? >> certainly i could see

recession going into the second half of this year. technically looks like we'll be contracting. i'm not sure really just how strong from an economic standpoint we're going to be when it comes to, just how far they will let unemployment go, if that will really be able to rise. what i am worried about from a corporate sense, from and investing sense, we're looking at very low profit growth for next year. we're looking at about 5%. neil: really? >> 5% profit growth. neil: that means even with the kind of selloff we've been seeing last few days that could add some speed, do you see that? >> and consistently also below inflationary levels. they're not increasing levels at pace of inflation. neil: they're not making money. >> that could put pressure on valuations. neil: even at these levels? a lot of people said what happened last three days, 1600 points on the dow, big slide we've been seeing that is going too far? if you're right, it isn't. >> that is what wall street,

right now wall street is sort of looking at the 10-year following that. they're highly correlated. neil: yeah. >> certainly right now, we're looking at valueses at same level ever 2019. neil: is that right? >> 17 1/2. neil: that is considered rich then. >> i say a little rich. neil: what's a little? what's a little? 5%, 10%? >> 5%. neil: really? >> 5% would be closer to fair value looking at an environment with raising interest rates. we could still if profit growth could really grow. that is all about are we going to pull back the economy so much that profits come down even further? analysts are known to be incorrect. they're known -- neil: not you. not you. if you're right on that, we're getting hints of it, with these, you know the latest adp private sector, half what people thought it would be, even companies like hp, hinting that business demand isn't there following tepid consumer demand. layoffs that sort of thing,

beyond just what snap did, getting rid of 20% of it the workers we could start hearing more of that? >> we could. ultimately if we finally see that consumer slow down just as if mortgage rates go up, you've got bigger payments you've got to do, spending comes less, companies have to pull back. so i am certainly worried about what is going to happen next year and just how companies are going to be able to navigate these higher interest rates and compound the inflationary pressure with a lot of these programs. neil: quickly a lot of people seek you out for investment advice, as they should. you're very good at this. a young person comes up to you, says, i know it's been crazy, i want in, i want to get into this market, what do you tell them? >> at this point i feel pretty safe even if we see a 5%, even 10% down from here, it's relatively a safer place to get in right now. neil: particularly for younger person. >> for younger person. now if you need the cash the next six months, keep it in cash

but if you don't need that cash for the next five years, trying to time the exact bottom is really tough. neil: really. >> i think we're pretty darn close to it. if not we've already seen it. we might sort of stay flat, which is more than you will earn in simple bank accounts. and this is a time to invest. neil: simple bank accounts, sorry to go over, guys,cd rates, two year cd rates, one, 2% next few years that is a little bit of competition for stocks, isn't it? >> not much [laughter] neil: people are losing money. all about protecting what you have. >> yes. if you need the cash in the next year, absolutely. that is where to go. if you're ready to look a little farther ahead this is safer place to get in. i say go for it. neil: nicely finessed. erin gibbs. corner of wall and broad, a lot of technology stocks taking it on the chin on the prospect of higher rates to come. if erin ask right, no reason to doubt her, nothing markedly

changing the gameplan here. whatever you heard out of jerome powell last friday remains pretty much the rule of thumb today. don't doubt him, don't fight him, don't mess with him. stay with us you're watching fox business

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neil: all right, still more than three weeks the fact a lot going own with drama where it goes ever since the president's home, donald trump's home was raided by fbi looking for classified documents. they found them, the president is saying he doesn't like the doj deciding what is out there, what isn't out there, including by pictures released over the last 24 hours show some of those documents at the mar-a-lago home that. fbi agents raided, in the meantime he separately is looking for an outside by a master if you will, to sort of look through all the documents and check for themselves what are paramount and what are not. mike emanuel on all of those developments in washington. hey, michael? >> neil, good afternoon, 36-page filing from federal prosecutors meeting a federal judge's late night deadline last night. they argue president trump's motion for a special master in this case fails for multpell independent reasons. prosecutors write the government also developed evidence that

government records were likely concealed and removed from the storage room and that efforts were likely taken to obstruct the government's investigation. the government also releasing this photo which contains a number of files with bright yellow or red cover sheets signifying top secret material. they appear spread out over a carpet. the court filing says were recovered inside of a container in the former president's office. prosecutors note three classified documents that were not located in boxes but rather were located in the desks, in the 45 office. the justice department says it seized 33 boxes, containers or items of evidence in the august 8th mar-a-lago search which contained more than 100 classified records. prosecutors say that includes information classified at the highest levels, adding, quote, even the fbi counterintelligence personnel and doj attorneys conducting the review required additional clearances before they were permitted to review

certain documents. the former president responding today on his truth social, terrible the way the fbi during the raid of mar-a-lago threw documents haphazardly all over the floor, perhaps pretending it was me that did it, started taking pictures of them for the public to see. thought they wanted them kept secret. lucky i declassified. the trump legal team has the opportunity to respond by tonight. then tomorrow both sides will make their arguments, federal court in florida. neil? neil: michael, thank you for that, very much. mike emanuel following that drama, it's a long way from being over. katie cher kaskey, former federal prosecutor, constitutional law attorney. we're always talking remotely. great to see you. where does this go, katie? what is your best bet, first on this idea of some sort of master third party observer looking at everything, what do you think? >> well that doj's filing really tells us what i think we already knew, this is a document dispute

but they kind of brush over how significant that is, but because president trump did have declassification authority that is something that really will be litigated all the way up through the supreme court. neil: really? >> in terms of actually moving forward with any sort of indictment if that is what they're looking to do, if there was suspicion they were looking to get back the documents but i think the filing last night shows they're really interested pursuing this criminally. neil: that is tough one, isn't it? you have to prove, they have been hinting that he might have obstructed justice here. he did argue that the, you know had given them everything they wanted, when it began with the national archives. there is nothing here here, they obviously felt differently and found stuff they said he didn't have. does that mean he lied to them? >> well i think that a dispute about the ownership of documents especially from a former president who had carte blanche authority over them is not obstruction.

if there is really a dispute about what he should or shouldn't have had, that is something again not comparable to any other government employee, any past prosecutions. it is something that i think is going to be a very difficult road in terms of a prosecution. now in terms of the other people involved including attorneys that made representations, that could be a different story in terms of their own liability but for former president trump i think that there has got to be a more significant analysis of the actual jurisdiction but the doj thinks that they have to indict him for offenses that are connected to his time in office. because even though now he is obviously not in office. these documents were all from his time there. he is claiming he declassified them. he does not need to prove he declassified them. this is criminal forum. this is presumption of innocence. the doj would need to prove beyond a reasonable doubt that he didn't do so. of course there are other offenses that don't discuss the classification level but any release of executive branch information was really within his authority.

so i think it is going to be a difficult thing to actually get to an indictment phase but -- neil: his saying he didn't have the documents they wanted and sort of turn around say, i declassified it anyway because i could, i was president at the time, it is clear he is going to be treated differently than anyone else who was in this situation. and that's where he comes in and says i'm being treated far differently than sandy berger was who had documents in his pants or certainly the hillary clinton situation where he argued she got off very, very lightly what do you think of that? >> it is totally different analysis in my mind, a president, first of all they don't possess a security clearance whatsoever. they are the clearance, classification authority. neil: but issue here too is, does that remain when you're a former president? >> i think what we need to remember is that the documents that he had were taken from his time -- neil: in office, right. >> at what point does this turn criminal according to the doj?

i think they could attempt to issue an indictment but i think they will run into constitutional issues on the vagueness side of things in charging because of his authority. so any other government employee, even at highest level is subject to laws regarding classified materials. neil: i'm reading between everything. you're the genius, or not. i watched a number of legal shows. i think as i told you i qualify, that, there is no criminal charge that is going to come his way, whether people feel he deserves it or not. it is just not happening. i don't see it. >> i don't think there is a sustainable prosecution based on the evidence that we have. now i think -- neil: unless they know something or uncovered something we don't know. this was heavily redacted affidavit. >> well, exactly. i think we have to remember in a criminal form it is proof beyond a reasonable doubt standard which is very, very significant. doj knows that, merrick garland knows that. i don't think they want to pursue a prosecution they cannot win. neil: yeah. >> this is far from a guarranty in that respect. for the other folks involved, including attorneys as i mentioned that made

representation, there could be some trouble for them potentially but it is very specific to the actual timing how these things took place before there could ever be an indictment that issued in my mind. neil: we're looking, if you don't mind switching gears i meant to ask you that after we last chatted, how credible it is to you, president biden did not know that this was coming down, or, that anyone at the white house didn't know this was coming down because at face value we do know that the white house counsel's office was aware of the pleas from the national archives folks hey we want our documents, these are missing documents so it does seem to bend credulity, what do you think? >> it absolutely bends credulity. the president is the executive branch owner. merrick garland serves at the pleasure of president. he is in charge of justice enacted out of executive branch. in terms of keeping things

non-partisan with the doj there are certain appearses. i think we're far past that point. we all know it is very political. whether it is criminal or not may be the case. president biden owns the doj. that is his agency and he has the authority -- neil: they had to realize the magnitude of this. we are going to raid a former president's home. might that -- >> exactly. neil: wise to get people in the loop on that? >> i think he should insert himself a bit more. their strategy was to look uninvolved but not political but i think it is backfiring because it is so unbelievable and totally as you mentioned bends credulity to suggest that the white house was not involved with something so unprecedented and so politcally, regardless of the underlying alleged criminal offenses. it is political through and through. this is based upon trump's actions while he was in the white house and it continues to be something that is a debate regarding his powers as the executive. so it is certainly political regardless of what the white house is trying to make it appear to be.

neil: katie, you're great. always great to learn so much. katie cher kaskey on all the developments. news we're getting out justice department and trump's legal folk what is they're having to say on all of this, looking for a third party observer to look through all of this. we're talking about in the next session meant, city behind me, a lot of people are not back in the buildings behind me. that could change. an edict from a top brokerage house, get your fannies back, we're taking away final excuses you have for not coming in after this. ♪

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neil: all right. we got charlie gasparino here. we're showing you the markets, some big financial players, people walking around the city. not as many milling around in the city right now because a lot of people are still telecommuting worried about covid. they're in no rush to get back. signals from the wall street titans, get back, they're not asking anymore. charlie gasparino on that. what have you got? >> you didn't get it? you have to google gasparino, what you got? neil: good to know. good to know. >> we won't go there. kudos to my old protege, lydia moynihan breaking the story that goldman sachs is ordering back its workforce. neil: is it ordering them back or strongly suggesting? >> they're saying you have to get back. if you don't -- neil: what have they done with all the covid protocols? >> i get to that in a minute. neil: maybe that is what you have, that is what you got. >> that is what you got.

kudos to ellie, my new protege, that morgan stanley has gone even further. morgan stanley went out there two days ago. we reviewed the internal memo sent by the head of hr, all covid protocols end on the 5th. that's labor day, right? the 5th is the labor day? neil: end in the city on the 59th. >> everything. neil: city requirements end the same day, labor day. >> not getting tested or contacted. neil: no reason to be at home. >> by the way we want you back in the office. okay. jpmorgan hasn't put the final stamp on its similar thing but from what i understand they're moving in that direction too. neil: they have a 23 billion-dollar skyscraper to fill up. >> jamie dimon is not exactly, not a guy that wastes money, okay? neither is james gorman at morgan stanley. these are all people that look, that are cost cutting maniacs so to speak. neil: right. >> so what we have now all the big three, essentially saying you have to get back in the office. i'm pretty sure everybody is

going to do it. what are they premising this on? just the fact that the latest strain is not of covid is not a hospitalization strain for the most part. and while there are cases, even though they're going down, they go up and down, we're at a point now where you know, you're unlikely to die. that was the problem in the past. there was a chance you could die. neil: yeah. >> we're not there right now. i think, they all, for example, morgan stanley essentially said that in the memo. this is not. neil: they're a different type of business, right? it is a people to people thing. but they did very well with so many workers. >> they're highly regulated business. neil: yeah. >> you have brokers working from home. you don't know what they're doing. you don't know who -- neil: right. >> this is all stuff that is extremely confidential. it is client money and you know, who is in the house do we know it is secure, client information? neil: you welcome this? you think this is a good idea? >> listen i don't care what they

do. neil: well you care. you're a caring human being. >> i am, but i come to the office. neil: but a lot of them feel this is like a threat. >> well, you know here's the problem. a lot of the kids, meaning i shouldn't say kids, the milled len millenials, what is the one below millenials, again z? neil: stop yourself. step yourself. >> i will not say lays did i but they're entitled. they think they have got the sweet spot there was -- neil: why can't they mix it up? >> here the thank, david solomon, james gorman, dimon want them all back. there is no better way to be productive everybody being in the office five days a week. neil: i see that for brokers,. >> traders, bankers. neil: but for support staff. >> depends on the support staff. neil: okay. >> it really does. i think that is where we're going now. they're also under pressure from mayor adams we should point out. he wants -- neil: a lot of people there, mayor adams they're concerned

about crime, that is a big issue. >> mayor adams, the wall street guys pointed that out through the new york city partnership if you really want people to come back, stop this stuff where people are getting thrown off subway platforms as they're going to work. neil: right. >> this is, this is, this is like the new iteration of what we're going. i think the wall street firms, we spoke with gary goldstein, runs whitney group, been around forever, made a good point, dynamic is changing. market are the slowing down. we got red today, really red the last couple days. we're in for a funk with the market, might have a bear market. significant bear market, might have a recession. put all of that together it looking looks like, the power dynamic with the workers initially. neil: that the pendulum has swung, right? >> now if you don't come to work, guess what? we might fire your -- neil: heinie. >> i didn't say it.

neil: wouldn't that be a kick come back to work, companying tells them to their face, now we'll lay you off. >> thanks for coming in. now we lay you off. i said if they fire me, bring security, i will run away from them. i'm not letting. neil: i'm not a runner. >> i'm not letting them, you know escort me out. i will run away okay? neil: i would hide in closet. >> do we have time for bed, bath & beyond? neil: real quickly. really falling apart. >> falling apart. ryan cohen who is this investor created gamestop, put three board members on board, a chunk of stock. before the whole thing blew up sold it all. now, it is raising a lot of eyebrows. people, securities lawyers say this is ripe for a sec investigation. we should point out sold at high level, not 9.41. diluting shareholders, borrowing money. it is a mess. his representative said the sec is not investigating as of now.

so you know, a lot of talk that they are. telling you his guys say nope they're not. they say they have done nothing wrong. they completely disclosed everything they needed to do. neil: understood. is that all you got? anything more? >> who do you think you are dylan ratigan? neil: that's enough. good seeing you. >> i like the vest. neil: you never wear a tie. you're your own man? >> every now and then i do, if it is important occasion. neil: you made it clear this show is not important occasion. >> you got that. neil: charlie gasparino, he is the mold and everyone else just tries to keep up. but we have a fun time doing it. at corner of wall and broad, to charlie's point, we picked up 30 points outside since he sat down here. so the gaspo effect is alive and well. stay with us. you're watching fox business. your shipping manager left to “find themself.” leaving you lost. you need to hire.

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♪ neil: all right the administration is still standing behind that initiative to forgive the debt up to $20,000 worth of debt for some 40 plus million students, former students, former college students. but a lot of folks saying it doesn't add up, and a lot more are saying that there are plenty of angry americans who are behind on their college debt as well, to say nothing of other debts that don't get anything. kevin cramer is the north dakota republican senator. joins us right now. sits on the senate banking and budget committee. senator, i don't know even technically if the president can do this but he wants to do it and will go full throttle doing it let the courts work it out but he thinks it is a winning election issue what do you think? >> i don't think, neil, that it's a winning election hish h issue because a people i talk to many are upset at unfairness this. i was at at veterans a wearers

in event. you tell that president there is native-american veteran in north dakota who wants his money back. i want my g.i. bill benefits even back. if you're going to do this, what about me? i paid a price as well for my education. so he, i think he represents probably millions of other people. various reasons, neil, some cases they didn't, they didn't accrue any debt. some cases they paid off their debt. other cases they had to make choices that led them in a different direction. maybe to serve in the military so they could go to college. then you ever people who a accumulated debt but didn't do it through the federal system. and so they, they're not eligible. which brings up your point about whether he can even do it constitutionally. if he can, it will be for a very narrow group of people that, you know, that he might have some aauthority over. neil: you heard obviously the president come back at republicans, senator, saying they had nothing to, you know to argue about when it came for tax

cuts that disproportionately benefited wealthy. that they're against college kids who can't pay their bills. you say? >> so, yeah, i would say to him, after the tax cuts and jobs act which did not dispronothings natalie help the wealthy as much as anything helped middle class, working class in this country, which had booming economy. we had everybody working. salaries and wages were going up. we had very low unemployment. very high wealth creation at every level including young people getting jobs and getting paid well to do them and to your previous, to charlie gasparino's point showing up for work in those days. and so i would say, yeah, let's cut taxes across the board if you want. let's cut regulations. let's create more job opportunities and wealth. to suggest this is the way way especially inflationary time, free money? giving away money for a product by the way, neil, already more

inflationary even than the consumer price index. that is of course higher education. neil: you're right about that. it runs four times the pace of the cpi. we'll watch it closely. senator, good catching up with you. >> always a pleasure, thank you. neil: in the meantime we're keeping an eye on russia right now. as you know mikhail gorbachev passed away yesterday at the age of 91. vladmir putin speaking about that but in measured words after this. do you have a life insurance policy you no longer need? now

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neil: you ever get the feeling when it comes to the ukraine war it is oddly enough vladmir putin having the last laugh, maybe reason enough for him to continue adding more troops, 137,000 by last count to the war in ukraine? and now putting european community between a rock and a hard place by closing off the nord stream gas pipeline all together. we don't know for how long. but that led to dramatically higher energy prices. good for vladmir putin who has found plenty of willing customers for his stuff, not so for europe right now which is being deluged with higher prices and rocketing utility bills because of all of this stuff. lieutenant colonel danny davis with us right now, defense priorities senior fellow, military expert. you know, danny, i begin to

think suddenly it is vladmir putin who is getting the better of the very countries that wanted to go after him to get the better of him? >> well you know, that is the way it is shaking out. it puzzles me a lot of this stuff is really kind of self-inflicted wounds. it was plainly obvious. i think too many people in the west, neil are trying to deal with things as they wish they were and not as they actually are. you can't slap all the economic sanctions on russia, talk openly about wanting to harm them and expect russia to do nothing. russia has levers to pull. this is one of them. this issue with the nord stream right now with claiming that it is for maintenance or whatever. they're going to cut it off until friday, we hope. then turn it back on. it shows they have complete leverage over this. of course that sends prices of gas through the roof as you just mentioned there and there is probably a lot more to come but i think that you can see that on the ground, russia is playing for time. they're not putting the troops

as much risk. they're using a lot more firepower, knowing it will get a lot tougher on the west to maintain the unity it has come the winter when the prices start to really bite into us. neil: all of nato pitching a note to fight the good fight in ukraine. we make up more than 80% of that money. i imagine that percentage will get even higher and vladmir putin knows it? >> well look, we just talked about this, 3 billion-dollar deal that was announced by the white house is for long-term. they're talking about having a named operation at the pentagon all of which says this is what we expect long term to continue to pay and just don't know how much longer the american people will continue to be willing to have this open-ended, you know, payout of money and the diminution of our own military capability. there was a report from the pentagon just two days ago our own stockpiles of artillery ammunition is running very low because we have given so much away. should we have unexpected deport

we'll be in trouble. neil: i want to get your thoughts, danny, vladmir putin commenting on the death of mikhail gorbachev. i don't think i ever remember anything so cautiously worded. mikhail gorbachev was a politician and statesman who had a huge impact on the course of global history. he goes on to say, led our country in complex transformations, extensive social, political, economic changes and profound need for reforms and sought to propose his solutions to the pressing problems. nothing else. >> you know it is funny, mikhail gorbachev was awarded a nobel peace prize. in the west he is almost across the board hailed as someone who was a very positive figure except in russia where he is widely viewed in negative terms and i think putin is kind of trying to draw the line there, walk that fine line where he doesn't want to bash him like many in russia do.

they view him having given away to the soviet union and -- neil: putin is the guy that wants, i'm sorry, colonel, putin is the guy that wants to piece it back together, right? >> not so, i don't know how much he really wants to piece it together but he wants to hold the power that he has got and certainly expand it in the area of ukraine. that is pretty clear. so he doesn't view gorbachev in that high of a light. neil: yeah, i think that is an understatement. always good seeing you, colonel, appreciate it. danny davis, served this country honorably. that is understatement. not an understatement to say we got more selling, fourth day in a row of it. tepid volume. this is final few days before the labor day weekend. typically one of the lightest trading weeks of the year. in this case living up to that, in this case living down to that. stay with us. this... is the planning effect.

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neil: a fast food fight in the golden state could involve half-million fast food workers in the state. with the state setting their pay and benefits. that's not going down well with folks who pay them right now. it would have to follow whatever the agenda would be. kelly o'grady, what is going on?

>> reporter: good to see you. it is called the fast food recovery act. it would establish a counsel that had the authority to set hours, working conditions, wages, that is where the headline number comes in, california is at $15. unsurprisingly we talked to a number of folks in the restaurant industry and there's a lot of pushback. one reason is the inquest -- increased cost for owners and consumers, some call it the california food tax. labor costs could increase 60%, prices could spike 20%. folks are operating on single digit profit margins and they can't afford wage increases without passing some on to the consumers. higher prices could exacerbate the inflationary headwinds we are seeing leading to less sales potentially and these fast food spots are the first place people turn to for food will -- affordable food options

with better value than grocery stores. additionally the bill targets change with 100 more locations but dismissed them as big corporate brands, local mcdonald's most likely owned by a franchisee. the 14,000 franchisees, nearly 70% own one location. it means shutting down and this may not just affect california. mcdonald's morning these labor unions are i and other states. the lopsided hypocritical and ill considered legislation hurts every one, not as a cautionary tale, workers and business owners. proponents of this bill made clear they want to see it expand across the country. mcdonald's sharing that if this legislation becomes law it would impact any expansion plans in california or they can leave the state altogether. it is up to governor gavin newsom, his department of finance did release an

analysis. he will be balancing voters and small businesses with powerful labor unions. he has until september 30th. neil: whatever starts in california is spreading elsewhere. thank you for that. kelly o'grady. next case worried what could go down in the golden state, international franchise association president, this could be very costly for your members. >> reporter: thanks for having me on. these franchisees, small business people, men and women, business owners, this could be back. these costs get passed on to the consumer, people who patronize these locations. they are on tight profit margins. labor unions sticking it to

marches. that is not who will pay it, it will be borne by the smallest franchisee and that is the thing that our messaging in the office right now. neil: no indication what he's going to do. hourly pay has on average $15 north of that for many establishments. mood like this could bring it to $22. now you are talking something that gets pretty pricey. >> $20 and as short as the next few months. these wage increases are phased in over time but it is not about minimum wage. this is about much broader efforts to renegotiate everything in the franchise model which they have been

trying to do for many years. neil: to unionize those workers. >> that is the end goal. the franchise business model gives greater value to workers than any other business model. we looked at the pay raise in franchise versus non-franchise businesses and they are higher, with other forms of tuition reimbursement and transportation. franchisees are better in touch with local employees than some corporation is going to be. that is one of the great things, what we are trying to protect not just in california. this is nationwide if you do this in the fast food sector, who is to say they can't do this in other sectors, not just a wake-up call for our members not only in california but

other states but any industry and any policymaker that wants to abdicate their responsibility, effectively what this bill does, to set working conditions based on a big lie about there being a need to greater protect these workers. california's own data does not support there's higher rates of wage violations. a group called the employment policy institute looked at the data in california found the restaurant industry, lowest rates of workplace violations of any sector of the economy. this is not based on facts or sound policy, something we could stop with governor newsom and other states. neil: on the other side, we are doing it, have yet to hear back. jared leavy is here, great read

on the stock market. i want to get your take on whether something like this if it even happens in california would make you look at fast food stocks differently. >> if you are talking, lots of pieces did this. it fuels inflation, deadness consumers, just overall and if you have a morphing of the franchise model, these aggressive special interest policies which i would say that in a certain amount of states, could have dramatic effects. at this point, the least of my worries but one of the things i am putting on the back burner and watching it shake out, see what gavin newsom does toward the end of the month.

neil: the fourth day in a row selling here and smart people reminds me think of the time of year, the last four trading days, 1600 points, an awful month, whether this has steam that goes into september. >> a few things playing right now, one is we have a lot of technical breakdowns, algorithms, we fell yesterday below the 50 day moving average, and living in the digital age, they accelerate a market selloff. you have a trifecta, the reduction plan, they are trying to figure out how it plays in. the debt cancellation change the coming in my mind, a high

probability changed the mind and trajectory of the fed, we heard that from jerome powell, and that changed the trajectory where people think rates are, from 4. 9 to 5. 5 in a week. what is happening now, and early to mid next year, now with this cut and forgiveness of student loans we see more inflationary pressure in the last quarter and that could delay the peak of beginning of cuts. right now there is fears a lot of it is around interest rates on markets. neil: when you look at the news today, the service sector jobs, we'll have the likes of hp,

consumers not only slowing down on buying that but so are businesses. the kind of news that would make the fed think twice about overly tightening, investors still selloff on it. >> i having algorithm following keywords in news and we are seeing over the last two months an extreme jump in the announcements of layoffs. those layoffs are not necessarily taking place right now, they are here in the final corner and going into next year. challenger data which follows us job cuts was at its highest level in 16 months in july. we see this rise, stuff is lagging but there's pressure building at the headline level and the corporate level. the environment is not great, the feds got benchmarks and

going to take into consideration moves by washington. neil: i want to be clear this latest move to potentially forgive student loan debt, that is something they have to plan for longer-term. >> think about it. anecdotally i talked to tons of friends of my younger and older, this is great, they are out shopping, i was just -- they are like student loan thing, there's conference i see in social media feeds. all is forgiven, my debt is canceled, they are excited, that will trigger spending and transit to higher prices and if you don't believe that you are not in my opinion and it has got to be factored in. we don't know because it has never been done.

it needs a couple months to shake out and the fed is taking back and the inflation reduction act, the student debt cancellation, what is the impact? they are watching. neil: to his point it does go on relatively minor. this is half the value on we normally see in some sectors. the results we see, the fourth day in the corner of wall and broad, we will update you on the battle between the department of justice and what donald trump over the raid on his home and some startling developments here where they are beginning to play with some fire after this.

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what the justice department got from that home is what the president is saying they got from the home. david spunt in palm beach, florida. >> the third-party to come in, to potentially return any evidence not in the scope of this investigation but there are serious allegations in the department of justice. i want to show you a picture tucked away on the back of this document shows some evidence, the first we have seen of the documents taken from mar-a-lago, secret, top secret, sensitive compartment information, the highest levels of classification here. the document in the photo show the framed magazine cover, the filing last night, the most

significant concern, highly classified records were intermixed with other records continues as an initial matter, the former president lacks standing for oversight and those records do not belong to him, it is clear the united states has ownership position. tomorrow, trump's team will fight in court for a special master. in early june the department of justice went to mar-a-lago to meet with trump representatives, former president popped by the meeting and when he insists they were fully cooperated, the justice department says that's not the case, twice as many documents with classification markings as the, quote, diligent search for president's counsel and other representatives had weeks to perform calls that represent the june 3rd certification and cast doubt on the extent of cooperation.

it is simple trump team won't be in court tomorrow, the department of justice will be in court in west palm beach arguing the trump team for the part of justice against this special master, ultimately she will mecca final decision. neil: what a beautiful backdrop. are you sure that isn't a green screen? stunning. it is real. thank you. the former deputy assistant attorney general of uc berkeley, smarty-pants as i like to say. what do you make of where we stand particularly with trump forces wanting a special master. where do you think this goes? >> the justice department has a blow trump out of the water filing here. there is no indication the justice department and trump people want to reach an agreement, handle this without

having to go to court, they are all ratcheting up the volume to level xi. it would have been better for both sides to handle this as past presidents have, to turn them over, and instead both sides are going to the meta-plaps, 2 other legal trouble. and and that's the kind of thing you will hear trump and his team complaining about if this keeps happening. >> this is -- this picture is attached to the public filing the justice department made late last night.

that picture wasn't necessary. they reason they included is donald trump's defense in part has been these papers are mixed up with lots of other papers. there's a chaotic move, and that picture is not from the basement storage room. these pictures or documents are held in donald trump's personal office, maybe his desk. they have top-secret covers which all classified documents have, anyone looking at them will know they are classified and hold national defense secrets, not just pieces of paper piled with time magazine covers and passports. neil: is that criminal? >> there are criminal statutes they put in the search warrant affidavits and can't take away presidential documents, can't

obstruct getting him back. and can't mishandle information for national defense. the justice department had the legal right to search for these documents given the those are crimes. was it necessary to go to the nuclear option is get a search warrant, rather than trying to reach a agreement which is how these disputes have been handled in the past. why we have said this is about flexing muscles and preparation for future fight over january 6th related searches where the justice department is telling the trump side we are going to play hardball, we are not going to be flexible, so get ready. neil: someone wording something this vaguely likely obstruction in this investigation, that is explosive to say even the most

impartial observer so does donald trump have a point to say they are going after him with a loaded gun? >> to use language like that is to accuse the president, his lawyers, to lay the blame on donald trump's two lawyers, corcoran and bob who are the ones dealing with the justice department for the search but to say they are responsible for that, it is a serious accusation. no former president has been indicted for a crime, has ever the subject of a surprise search warrant to. to raise it to that level, that is not going to be whether you misplaced documents and getting them back, we may be charging people with crimes for the first time ever in american history.

neil: we are going to watch it closely. thank you very much. >> i don't have a great backdrop. neil: it is very impressive. the whole elaborate -- it fits him. thank you very much. good seeing you again. in the meantime we are following this quiet quitting. you've heard a lot about it and i am thinking where a lot of big investment bank titans, no matter how you feel about covid, whether that is going to get more of this quiet quitting after this. ♪ ♪ ♪ if i could reach the stars ♪ i would give them all to you ♪

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neil: i got nervous when madison said we want you to do a story quietly. you know this phenomenon where a lot of people make it clear i can only take so much and then i don't know. i am going to walk. employees have been in the drivers seat through covid and everything else and now a lot of investment bank say get back to work. don't assume employees will respond that quickly to that. it is a trend. >> what we are seeing is quiet firing. quiet quitting is when employees do less but get paid the same. quiet firing will prevent any future mobility. the goal with quiet firing is to push an employee that is underperforming out by not giving them raises, taking away their responsibly's and generally passing them up for

any sort of advancement. you are not going to do more work, we will not do more for you either. half of employees say they have seen quiet firing happening in their workplaces. experts warned doing the bare minimum or even less stretches beyond just your work. >> when you quiet quit you take yourself out of the game not only in the short term but in the long term because the work you do, maybe pays your rent or your mortgage but funds your retirement. it funds your ability to make good choices down the word about starting a family or buying a home. >> reporter: the problem stems from employees not being engaged with their jobs which 54% of the youngest workers in the workforce today say they experience. therein lies the problem. if your response to not feeling engaged with your job is to be even less engaged with your work, your situation is not going to get better and if you are quiet fire awful on fired

that makes it worse. neil: isn't your generation doing this? >> it is. that is a generation that feels not engaged. bleach with the kind of entitled, selfish. >> you might say that. i don't know if i would. that's the problem with engagement. the solution is to kind of give up you are not going to better your current situation and your future. something i found in my millennial career is people you work with previous jobs help with future job so, why did you come work here again? if you are quiet quitting and your coworker sees you not picking up your slack they are not going to help you in the future. think about the coworkers that will be your references or help you get that future job, they won't be happy if you're putting more work on their plate. neil: well said, just joking, madison is one of the hardest workers. and it is a real phenomenon. let's get the read from rob

luna, the research president and let me get your take first on what madison was pointing out, it's a real issue, not going away, the pendulum could be swinging toward the bosses, demanding people do more work or get back physically to work. >> the larger picture, the post pandemic period we have seen a major rethink about work, how things, how people view it, how they want to do it and a lot of people were unhappy with their jobs and what prevented quiet quitting was coercion, you went to the office and the boss was means you so you did it to keep him off your back. now people have had a reassessment about what it is that is important to them and i think that is going to

transcend a bunch of people we want to dismiss as lazy but whole nature of work and that filters into getting people back into the office 21/2 years after the pandemic began. neil: i am surprised they are having difficulty enforcing that or getting workers who are into this trend may be rethinking the trend. to push by investment banks to say they are dropping a lot of covid protocol so you have no reason to be home anymore. i wonder where that is going. >> the bigger issue, the pandemic exacerbated this but this is a communication problem. when you talk about the millennial generation they are not talking to people anymore. the ability to articulate, build relationships with people. it is all on the phone, something as simple as i'm doing great has been reduced to a big yellow thumb. if you personalize it you match

it to your flesh-colored. building relationships, articulating guidelines for people, those are the things we need to give back to. and locking people away from each other is not good for business, not good for society. neil: look at what is going on now, a million more essentially quit the workforce, 11 million in no rush to get back so i am wondering there has got to be a disconnect here. >> there definitely is. it comes down to the nature of work. this is not a gender the --gen z thing. it is across the spectrum. as far as the idea we need to have better communication i will push back on that. the real fault is managers.

a bunch of managers that whine and complain that no one is coming to the office but don't try to manage people remotely. they have to learn this is the new thing now. neil: maybe it is not. >> it is. it is 1/3 of the workforce is remote. of third of the workforce, not ready to go back to the office. they attach a monetary value to it. they could demand they come back, what goldman sachs is demanding for the fourth time in your, demanding people come back to the office, the first three times didn't work, we will see if this one works as well. neil: there is a cockiness with respect to what jim was saying that i can't soil myself, my noxious boss, and different times now, to address that, i

wonder if the pendulum swings back. is not all by all means. they are going to have to read the new writing on the wall. >> i will push back on you. you are saying managers. managers are people in the ability to communicate, articulate the needs, outline the clear guideline and path for people is now more important than ever. if you are able to manage this remote workforce, over communication is the key because you are not right in front of people. there's been this big disconnect where everyone has been sideload and that is what investment banks are talking about. collaboration is where these ideas come from. i don't think we are going back to where we were but i think we will get back to a more normal environment. some flex work schedule but as the pandemic gets put in the rearview mirror and the economy starts to slow down, power shifting back to the employer like we are seeing the real

estate markets, going back to a buyers market so they have new choices, they will have to catch up with that. neil: we will see what happens. a lot of people love to be around people and other people don't. that is the conundrum. thank you both for that. we are getting word out of walmart that sam's club is raising annual membership fee, 9 years to be exact. annual fees will rise this fall, increased to $50 from $45 and $110 from $100 for members of the highest level plus which include additional perks. that is if they decide to show up at the store. more after this.

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neil: the fda has gone ahead and approved the updated covid 19 boosters, supposedly covering the sub variants. a lot of folks were waiting for this revamped booster shot to be available to address these sub variants. they are up and ready and approved so we will keep you posted on that and how you should take advantage of that. in the meantime we are taking a look at a backdrop for this, how this post covid world has been affected by this including markedly lower lifetime survival rates, in other words how long people live but that is going in reverse for the past couple years. steve harrigan following that from atlanta. >> are markable and troubling numbers out of the cdc when it comes to us life expectancy. it has taken the sharpest drop

over a 2-year period in the past century. three years ago average life expectancy in the us was 76, down 3 years off that and a lot of health experts say it is not just covid but other factors in play, >> -- >> it is the most significant -- caused the most significant rise in mortality but not the only factor. the continued declines in the pandemic. >> when it comes to drug overdoses fentanyl is key. the past three years the number of deaths in the us from fentanyl overdoses are up 56% and in the past when you're alone 108,000 people died in

the us from opioids. as far as life expectancy, hitting some groups harder than others. black americans lost three years of life expectancy since 2019. average life expectancy, four black americans is 70. 8 years, 6 year gap between white and black and the difference between men and women continues to widen in the us, it is 73 years, average life expectancy for a man 79 for a woman. back to you. neil: i don't know the gap has ever been that wide, want to draw your attention to session lows, the dow was down 180 points, no doubt some layoff news in corporate america and startling slowdown news as to whether it is inflationary or not or recessionary or not. susan has more on all of this.

susan: let's talk job cuts, snap confirming this morning they are cutting 20% of their 6400 employees so we are talking a thousand jobs including the hardware, the drone photo division and snap originals premium shows and also sales growth as well much slower than anticipated at the start of this year and it might stretch into 2,023. is this a big surprise? not really, we had the slowest quarterly sales growth in the spring, the slowest since the company became -- wasn't listed on the stock exchange but trying to find half a billion dollars in savings to preserve cash so a number of factors, all of social media, tiktok competition slowing at revenue, apple's privacy changes and that is impacting the likes of meda as well but this shows you white-collar high-priced high paid tech jobs are being cut or

jobs being frozen so look at meda and the other social media stocks as well, some people think maybe we hit bottom when it comes to advertising revenue slowdown and if these companies could find savings like snap is doing that might pad the bottom line which i want to show you bed, bath, and beyond, they announced a turnaround plan, closing 150 stores, $500 million cash lifeline in the form of a loan and also a loan facility as well and they are laying off 20% of corporate and supply-chain staff and possibly more shares in the future. they filed for that option. ryan cohen is reviving these meme stocks, selling off his 10% stake in bed, bath, and

beyond and this is after the stock rallied after he bought in but over the last few days and since he sold his shares it is down 60%. the original company, the pet products retailer how he made his money, sold that for 31/$3 billion in 2017 but chewy made money instead of losing money but their guidance was weak so what does this tell you? jobs are hard to come by. big companies cutting staff to prepare for a possible upcoming recession and dealing with high inflation. neil: preparing for a storm. want to be you back to date on the real estate situation, seeing activity slow or collapse. we had some numbers that could reveal both after this. ♪

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neil: mortgage rates going up and real estate prices and home sales going down. the information is not that black and white. katrina, i'm not too shocked when you see the soaring activity reduced to something decidedly less and it is not happening across the country in your neck of the woods but it is a worry and we are seeing fewer people enjoying this. mortgage applications down 2%, even more for those who like to refinance their homes. what is happening? >> interest rates are definitely affecting buyers across the nation. in some areas more than others. we've seen a slowdown of sales that are absolutely necessary in my opinion because it is a sellers market, you are seeing very low supply which is why sales are still going up.

it is a slower progression. buyers needed the negotiating power they have once again. the days of waiving inspections, sellers getting 10 or more offers are over and that frenzy was not healthy for anybody in the market. the market is balancing itself out. that said we have low supply because builders caused new-home stars, the cost of owning a home has increased. you are seeing areas like miami, palm beach, sarasota, part of the country like the west are slowing down more so than the east. that's going to continue and it is healthy. i also think people are going to hiccup now that the fall is here in the summer months,

let's remember the summer months are very slow. june and july tends to be slower and we see that this time around because people are going back on vacation in getting their kids back to school. we 20 for homebuilders to say it is affecting their psyche and potential buyers psyche. it could help in terms of existing home sales if the new home sales, the folks who build them and are behind them slowdown. what do you see happening? >> as a little he, the fact that builders, let's not forget there is a lot being built which is why they are taking a pause which makes sense and it is great for sellers, existing home sellers who are considering putting their house on the market because the buyers will have more options and more opportunities for existing home sellers. a lot of home sellers decided to put their house on the market which is why we see an increase in inventory. we have very low inventory and

one important point is, miami and palm beach and sarasota continued to remain strong. the influx of people coming to florida, 295,000 new residents will enter florida per year through 2,027 and to put that in perspective, orlando every single year. that is why florida continues to remain strong while the west is going to suffer a little more when it comes to the real estate market. builders will pick up once they deliver the product in the pipeline right now. neil: there is this sticker shock for new floridians realizing the growth and appreciation of homes, here, the higher real estate taxes. florida is not at the end of that. >> absolutely and let's not forget florida is not immune to insurance costs. the price of insurance has gone

up as a result of many people exiting the state of florida when it comes to insurance and still people want quality-of-life so what i have experienced is people are still migrating. the net influx is greater than other states which is why we see demand in florida, continuing to see prices go up a little slower. lee 20 knock on whatever you knock on with real estate. the dow down one hundred 55 points. some of the real estate players including homebuilders caught up in this pinch, more after this. past extraordinary landscapes into the heart of iconic cities is a journey for the curious traveler, one that many have yet to discover. . .

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neil: i don't know where we will end the day but most certainly end the month of august trading on a down note here. all the major averages already down at least 3% in the case of the nasdaq north of, should i say south of 4%. here charles payne to see what he can do to correct that. charles: we call this the summertime blues,. neil: there you go. charles: i'm charles payne. this is "making money." the market frantically trying to find its footing while the federal reserve is frantically trying to destroy all hope. will the fed destruction go too far or maybe they're talking tough? i will have the best in the business to weigh in on this throughout the hour. the new work place trend. quiet quitting. a tiktok sensation, some part of the anti-work movement. that along