royal family even in its entirety but nobody loves megan more than she loves herself and i think that's evident with each passing week two of this a good note to end and thank you for joining us this week, will be back next week with more commentary and interviews on wall street journal and thank you and have a great labor day weekend will see you nex >> "barron's roundtable" sponsored by global x ets. >> welcome to "barron's roundtable" where we get behind the headlines and prepare you for the week ahead. i am carleton english in for jack arter. the price of the pump is

heading down, energy analyst tom klausa. analyst expect more volatility. new investment ideas to get you through the rest of the year but we begin with three things investors should be thinking about right now. markets rally this week even though the jobs report is inflation fear. how the fed could react at this meeting. keeping advanced semiconductors out of the handle china and russia, what this will mean for american chipmakers. apple will unveil new iphone it next week's conference, will this movie start? on "barron's roundtable," ben levinsohn, al root and nick djaczinsky. ben: the markets got crushed. what makes it worse is there are three days the market opened above previous day's close and couldn't hold on to

those gains. nowhere was that more obvious than friday when we had a great opening, everyone was excited about the jobs report and the market was up one% and finished down around 2%. the dow is up 3% or so. carleton: let's look at the jobs report. we are in undated with companies like snap, bed, bath, and beyond but that is not showing up in the jobs report. what stuck out to you? >> the official numbers strong, 300,000 down from july, still a great number no matter how you look at it and there are even more jobs, we saw an increase in participation rate, a lot of people not looking for jobs are now looking for them. we have a cover story that looks at the labor market. the labor market will be shrinking because of the aging

population and there are many imprints in the country. carleton: what the next piece of economic data? ben: the next cpi reading in a couple weeks. the fed is focused on jobs because wages are going up and if wages go up that is a real problem. we will watch the inflation number. that is great news for the market. carleton: wasn't just the market. nvidia also did. what is going on their? >> what happened was the us government basically essentially imposed restrictions on nvidia's ability to select ice chips to russia and china. it amounted to another piece, another straw in the camel's

back of russia, china us tensions. the two largest economies in the world picking at each other and chips at the center of it. we worry about taiwan semi after speaker pelosi went to visit the country. nvidia is caught in the middle of it. it has been a terrible year pushing stock 53% year to date. carleton: it is not just geopolitics driving the move, what else are you seeing? >> a few things. for nvidia specifically analysts were expecting 8.5 million in third-quarter revenue. they said it will be 5.9 million, a huge missed. miss. one of the things we learned, crypto mining applications where nvidia was sending its

chips, i understood, our colleague kim is all over this. you have semi conductor shortage we've been talking about for years. things are getting better at the margin. the rate of change starts to change and things start to dip. not just the entire stock indexes 35% year to date. carleton: we have apple next week hosting a far out event, what can we expect? nick:that is at hp and cooper and the up is iphones. the new iphones are rumored to have faster chips and satellite connectivity far out, the big question is pricing. apple is able to pass higher

and maintain super profit margins. carleton: apple has held up reasonably well. do we expect next week's event. it? >> it is not much of a catalyst. the week of actual event doesn't move much differently than broader markets. the next 6 months beating the market by several percentage points. this time around there's a little bit of a debate as consumer demand holds up in the global economy, a lot of inflation and we are locked into the apple ecosystem. everyone loves the iphones. ben: not all of us, google here. nick:the installed peace around the world, at web. 350 million of those haven't

been upgraded in 3 years so potential for a big iphone cycle. carleton: your out of the cool club but thank you so much. consumers are getting a break from high gas prices but home heating costs will new projects means new project managers. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. when you sponsor a job, you immediately get your shortlist of quality candidates, whose resumes on indeed match your job criteria. visit indeed.com/hire and get started today. lila: before i was diagnosed, there was nothing

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carleton: a lot of people are traveling this weekend. are they seeing better prices at the pump? >> compared to the middle of june they are seeing prices around $3.80, one dollar and 20 one cents. if you want to put a bright light on it americans are spending half $1 billion less this weekend than they were in the middle of june. that is not bad. carleton: we saw the recent price drop but is it sustainable? >> i don't agree with people who say we will go back to $3, this was too many crosswinds in the world right now so i think we will have a plateau very shortly but one thing working for us is gasoline demand always drops from august september, big banks think it will go up this year but that

would be contrary to history, what we have seen for the 21st century. carleton: you make a point about the summer travel season, the winter heating season, what household expect especially in light of the news coming progression to keep the nordstream shot. >> we are not seeing the prices europe sees, but natural gas, europe could go ballistic or parabolic at any moment. you are going to be paying $5 a gallon. vladimir putin pushing various buttons. in the united states, we are a privileged continent in north america. natural gas prices here are a seventh of what they are paying in europe and the seventh of

what they are paying in asia as well. carleton: i understand geopolitics, we have the g-7 countries slamming for a price on russian oil. what is your take? will that do anything? jack: "my take" is when politicians get involved in oil trading and supply, the notion of price gap is probably more of an experiment than a reality. the reality is when you have a cartel in the cartel that violates all the rules of capitalism i don't think a cartel on the buy side is possible. since february russian oil hasn't been impeded, mostly to asia, china, and india. we see pressure on vladimir putin, in ukraine and russia, i don't think the price will get

much traction. carleton: are there any other wildcards emerging? we are going into hurricane season for instance. >> there are a lot of wildcards and we threaded the needle through most of this hurricane season so far but here in florida, it starts in september and ramps up in october. if you get a storm in the gulf of mexico, whether or not it makes landfall, it will impede progress or result in some proportion every shutdowns. you can't operate a refinery, 24 to 48 hours tropical force winds the loan hurricane winds. carleton: the energy industry and investing angle, one would expect the whole sector would be benefiting where prices, oil and gas prices have been but that may not be the case, can you break that down for us?

>> i would break it down into oil production, refining and retailing. oil production has been doing quite well. generally the breakeven price for barrel of crude oil in west texas is $25 a barrel. producers are doing well. the refiners doing epic returns on gasoline but now making a lot of money on diesel, heating oil and jet fuel. they will probably do well for the next 6 or 7 months and the real beneficiaries over the summer have been the retailers, the public retailers and private retailers. it used to be a few years ago you could buy gasoline stations for $1 million or $2 million each, now they sell it for 4 times that amount. it is because major oil companies believe having the retail arm as well, don't be surprised to see three of the major oil companies put

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big picture strategists, inflation remains high but it is coming down a bit and economic growth is slowing if not into outright recession definitely slowing. the debate, the magnitude of those forces and what it means for corporate earnings and stock multiples and that is apparent in a wide range of forecasts we got. the s&p at the end of this year range from 3600 on the low end up to 4800 on the high end which is a massive range. that is a recipe for more volatility as every incoming data point, the economy or federal reserve official speaking cause market expectations to shift. carleton: you have written the fall market outlook. curious how whatever you heard this year differs from previous years when you cover the outlook. >> strategists have come around to expecting shorter cycles but for the economy and markets and bear markets and that is

reflective of uncertainty in the world right now. the range of inputs is so much wider these days, the pandemic everybody became an epidemiologist. investors are playing war games and handicapping the yards of nuclear war, struggling for the memes and investment analysis. not the kind of stuff you learn. carleton: not only were you in editor but a traitor. as a traitor, investor, how do you make sense of this market and plan ahead? >> for most of us we are putting money into a 401(k), the market goes up. as a traitor this is great because there's volatility and that is what you want but it is also a market where usually when something has momentum it keeps going but this isn't that kind of market. when something get a big move it reverses a lot of the time

so you have to pay attention to technicals, the stock market hit the 200 day moving average after the summer rally. the levels are important, you have to watch the support and when they break, that is the biggest thing to watch. ben: when things get complicated and you have these incredible ranges, simplifying is a good idea. with high-quality stocks, it might be the best thing to go going into fall. carleton: it is a stock pickers markets, active management, you have a point of view on this. what is it. al: i am a great lover of puns, it is always a stock pick. it is picking the right stocks lose that's almost a clue that

people, no direction. carleton: i like to give some direction. were there any key take aways, areas of the market read could find safety? >> i would lift energy, pharma and chemical stocks, it comes down to one metric which is free cash flow based on free cash flow with macro uncertainty. that is important to emphasize, costs are going up for every business with more demand on cash flow. companies that finance and the dividend payers when bond deals are higher as they are now for companies that are cheap, is a lot of energy companies, exxon mobil, chevron is another one, pfizer and moderna, it makes

fertilizer, that is what i would focus on. >> for the investor who doesn't -- it is a different approach. is there something they should be looking at. >> the ticker is a small equivalent, the ticker is see alf. >> roundtable members give their investment ideas for the coming weekend been answers the question is there any way to make money and social media? stay right there. people remember ads with young people having a good time. so to help you remember that liberty mutual customizes your home insurance, here's a pool party. ♪ good times. insurance! ♪ only pay for what you need. ♪ liberty. liberty. liberty. liberty. ♪ ♪

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carleton: a lot of info from social media, massive layoffs at snap, twitter testing out an edit button, and if you are a subscriber, anything for social media companies? >> we can debate whether social media is running the world but we can debate whether they are good businesses, they are not at this point. to look at twitter which made money and two years, we can look at theinterest which will go back to its money-losing ways in 2022. snap never turn a profit. facebook, meta platforms, still making money. lost 7%, that is the same as ibm but ibm is a dividend. when investors forget social media is an advertising business, advertising is cyclical. for now it is better off.

carleton: anyone who agrees or disagrees can reach out to you@been levinsohn. i want to start with actionable ideas. hough ben: we have several beneficiaries with a long-term shortage of labor, the beneficiary, korn ferry, executive and staffing firm as labor becomes more scarce their services are more in demand, getting workers they need with tuition rates as wages rise and it is a cheap stock dropping 19% due to worries about recession and rising unemployment. labor shortages going away. carleton: you are taking another bit of advice. al: stealing one of nick's ideas, laborsaving technology,

robot and automation, leverage to the electrification of everything. abb. carleton: great ideas, to read more check out this week's addition of barron.com and follow us on twitter, barron online, see you next week on "barron's roundtable". (announcer) the following is a paid presentation furnished by rare collectibles tv, llc. (announcer) the biggest numismatic event of the year just occurred! the 2021 morgan silver dollars are finally available and you are the first in line to acquire them right now! the silver dollar is the ultimate collector's coin and the most popular silver dollar design is the morgan silver dollar struck from 1878 to 1921.