something terrible happens, we're together maybe for five minutes, one thing will say something outrageous, the other side will react, and i honestly do worry. gerry: i'll be back next week with more commentary and interviews here on the "wall street journal at large." in the meantime, thanks for joining us. >> "barron's roundtable" sponsored by global x etfs. jack: welcome to "barron's roundtable" where we get behind the headlines and prepare you for the week ahead. we have hawkish comments from fed chief jay powell. what does that mean for your portfolio? should you be worried about

your social security? debunking the myths. makeovers to takeovers, what is behind kim kardashian's new venture. we begin with three things investors out to be thinking about right now, stocks snapping a 3-week losing streak but investors awaiting new inflation reports next week. the fiduciary fight against green energy, pressure from anti-esd activist for oil companies to drill baby drill but is that more profitable? we have to unveil a big snoozer for most of us but not for space companies. so, traders finally started buying this past weekend oddly enough this time us investors take their cues from europe instead of the other way around. >> it has as much to do with what is happening overseas, we had europe raising rates by 3 quarters of a point keeping up with the fed a little bit and

that had the effect of knocking down the dollar a little bit and the dollar is a problem because the higher the dollar goes, the more profits for companies that sell stuff overseas but you have this fear around europe that there would be a calamity for the situation with russian gas. they pulled back a bit, there are still worries, there is a certain amount of progress getting enough gas for the winter together so that turns into a bigger crisis that has dialed back a little bit. jack: it helps with inflation a bit. ben: that is unlikely, the dollar has been so strong, the united states has stability through this so might have gone up too much but won't fall to a level that will cause any real problems. jack: can we be optimistic about everything else?

ibly7 ben: the cpi is scary. the biggest problem is even if we get a good number that doesn't mean the fed will dial back from the rate hikes. it still wants to slow down the economy and see inflation get down to 2% so we might get a positive reaction if the number is lower than expected but that's not an all clear signal. jack: back to the oil prices. environmentalists want less drilling for obvious reasons. some capitalists and financiers want less drilling because it is helping keep the price up. but now and activist investor tells chevron get the pumps going. carleton: a small stake in chevron, basically 0.2%, telling chevron it should focus more on energy production and curb its spending on the energy transition. to give a point of reference, chevron is saying it plans to

trickle investments to $10 billion through 2028. jack: there's a middle ground between don't real at all in the drill baby drill people. carleton: there are a lot of dynamics going on. you might not find energy company that is pristine but are they on the right path to embracing renewables, curbing production? than you do have so many tensions in florida and texas that are pulling away from esd oriented funds claiming they are anti-capitalist, going against fair market practices. jack: they had been doing well because they are heavy in tech. it is a sinner's market, defense stocks, energy stocks, etc. . carleton: and a lot of people are tempted to go for ets, they have ways to ask for advice. we would say look at the

sectors themselves individually, up 45% this year, one of the aerospace and defense etfs but when looking at the broader s&p down 15% i will take flat. jack: everyone is excited about the september event, not different from the 13. there was one cool aspect of it. jack: iphone 14 has the ability to have satellite connectivity so you can text when there is no cell phone coverage on a limited basis. verizon, similar plans to have satellite connectivity, t-mobile similar plans. what it means for me is this nascent space economy, commercial space opportunity is real. hundreds of millions of dollars

for this connectivity, it is a real business. people might not like the new camera but i want to text. jack: the stock market find ways to surprise you, the biggest satellite companies went to the wrong direction. jack: the stock was down 10%. it is a case of to buy the rumor, sell the news. the iphone 13 would have this connectivity, global star is up 40% going into the iphone 14 event so they win the contract, stock was down and later in the day, elon musk tweets his space x was talking to apple 2 about satellite connectivity, globalstar goes down 10% closing the day down 17% or 18%. % or 18%. it goes to show you whatever is going on in the real economy, trading these - jack: elon musk and jeff bezos have rockets that can land standing up, nasdaq can't even get its rocket off the ground. what is going on?

al: it is a fair point. nasa is trying to do something difficult, trying to go to the moon and eventually to mars. there is that. what you said is correct. even nasa's problems and nasa's direction shows the commercial space business is real. nasa is lenient commercial space as well, they are having space x and others do a lot of the work they have been doing themselves the last 50 years. jack: that will move to investors. the fed is keeping its foot on the break in the fight against inflation. the impact to the economy and your investments.

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jack: fed chair jay powell says he will raise rates until fighting inflation is done. joining the is apollo global cheetah canonist triston sluck. we 've seen them in some indication they are having some success but the labor market is still red-hot. how does this play out? >> the fed would like to call him the economy down because that is the main way to cool inflation down. inflation at 8.5% is too high, the fifth target is 2%. the fed needs to raise interest rates, jackson hole is talking about raising rates further from team members, 75 basis points and that is to cool the economy down and slow the labor market down. jack: that is a fairly big delta. jason furman had a story, to

achieve the slowdown we could face unemployment of 6.5% for two years. is he being pessimistic? >> the important thing is to ask why did inflation go up? it was because of demand, similar checks, unemployment benefits or did it go up because of supply chains? was it because of covid antivirus? we need to destroy more demand, and push employment up but if on the other hand it is not supply chains maybe we need time to resolve this problem because the supply-chain problem is getting better and a number of working people said look at this, 2 thirds of the increase in inflation was supply-chain issues and only one third was demand so the answer is we don't need to get the employment rate up to 6.5. once transportation costs come

down and supply chains get better there's an important debate about the question, 6% is higher, what we have today. jack: where do you come down and where will the fed have to go as it weighs on these things? >> the federal reserve have a forecast that will go up to 11 more than 4%. that is why estimates as high as 65, very controversial because that would imply we need an increase in the unemployment rate and more than what is required today. we need to see the unemployment rate go up a little more. one of the reasons inflation went up, they were associated with supply-chain costs going up and pure people joining the labor market or more people staying at home because of long covid.

if we just make and we see inflation go down a lot of the inflation will resolve. th high level of 8.5. jack: take the economics and put it on the viewers portfolios. what does this mean for the stock market? >> in simple words the bottom line is the fed is trying to cool the economy down, another way of saying the fed is trying to put the ian the pe ratio, earnings are too high. in the fed's view that is what they are saying making too much money so a way to slow down the economy is to slow hiring, slow down spending and slow growth and earnings down. if that is the case the answer to the question is the risks to the stock market are to the downside because the fed is not done yet slowing the economy because their goal is inflation needs to come down from 8.

5 to two and that slows the economy it would involve slower earnings and corporate growth particularly in earnings. jack: that negative sounding stuff could be good for bondholders. in the short term it sounds like more pain. >> in treasuries markets where you have a treasury portfolio coming inflation is 8.5, then you have a significant erosion of your portfolio. jack: they are convinced they won't see their social security retirement, chunk of working age americans i worry too. i these fears. it? that in a few minutes. (fisher investments) in this market, you'll find fisher investments is different than other money managers. (other money manager) different how? aren't we all just looking for the hottest stocks?

(fisher investments) nope. we use diversified strategies to position our client's portfolios for their long-term goals. (other money manager) but you still sell investments that generate high commissions for you, right? (fisher investments) no, we don't sell commission products. we're a fiduciary, obligated to act in our client's best interest. (other money manager) so when do you make more money, only when your clients make more money? (fisher investments) yep. we do better when our clients do better. at fisher investments, we're clearly different.

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jack: like bigfoot, mermaids and unicorns many lineals think of social security is a myth for them. older americans feeling the same. the social security trust fund is on track to run out of money and 2034. kristin bell strum joins us now. polling shows half of millennials think they won't see a dime of their social security benefits. is that fear justified? >> yes and no. i should start by saying the idea millennials won't see any social security benefits is very unlikely. both the younger people and all americans have reason to be nervous about the state of social security. social security retirement trust is on track to run out in 2034. the first year the program paid more in benefits than it had inflows.

a bankrupt trust is not a good look. i would say it is not as bad as it sounds. in reality the trust is only paying a portion of benefits and payroll taxes make the majority and even if we got to this situation in 2034 where it was insolvent you would still have these payroll taxes covering a bit more than 75% of benefits so that is not great but it is not 0. jack: of 25% loss is not what people want, they are older and vote more so i suspect congress would see it in their best interest to do something about this. what levers could they pool to get us back to 100%? >> there are a few basic ones that are out there. raise taxes to increase inflows, cut benefits in some way or raise retirement age which is essentially a benefit

cut but one that can be phased in slowly and doesn't have the same impact on people as getting smaller checks. on the tax side, there has been discussion of thinking whether people can make more to pay more to assist them. right now you are only taxed payroll on $147,000 income. there is discussion about looking at people who make more than $400,000, saying should these people be paying more? carleton: as an older millennial who would love to retire at some point, whether it is millennials, anything to offset that possible expected gap in the coverage they had been looking for? >> especially for millennials, you have time to plan for that and the financial planners we talked to said if you want to

be conservative, you want to make your financial plan expecting to make 25% less in social security benefits than people are collecting now. to run through the numbers, let's say you are 35, make $100,000 a year, if you wanted to replace a 20% cut in social security you would need to save $33 so that gives a sense of the type of savings we are talking about. al: some people tell me i should start taking social security as soon as i can or wait as long as possible, which is right? >> i would say definitely listen to the people telling you to wait. the way social security is set up, if you claim early you are going to get a smaller benefit and locking that in for the rest of your life. if you are claiming it for retirement age you get 100%, 67.

if you are claiming later you're going to get 8% more a year. the longer you can wait the better. people think of it slightly in the wrong way when they are trying to squeeze every dollar out of the system. you can think of it as longevity insurance. this is something where what you want is to lock in the larger payments so that when you get to your later years you don't have a lot of options you will have that security built in. jack: the strategy discussions, we don't have them enough. what do you do in the case of the spouse, who takes what when and how you maximize that strategy? >> great question. when people are making those calculations about what their lifetime benefit can be they forget to factor in their spouse and that is important because social security has survivor benefits. basically if one spouse were to die, the survivor can choose to

continue to get their benefit or if their spouse's benefit is larger they can take that instead. generally the best strategy for the person who makes the most money to wait as long as possible to claim and lock in the payments so you are setting up the family to be secure so if that person lives for a long time and gets a larger benefit but if they were to die earlier than expected they left their spouse in a secure situation. jack: great to have you on board, thanks for breaking it down. you have a big inflation report next week. you will be telling us where we should put our money to work next and kim kardashian is looking to conquer another industry, so don't go anywhere. customizes your car insurance so you only pay for what you need! (limu squawks) he's a natural. only pay for what you need. ♪liberty. liberty. liberty. liberty.♪

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ordinary ets, go to foxbusiness.com/"barron's roundtable". jack: when matt damon launched that crypto.com commercial that coincided almost perfectly with the top of bitcoin. we have kim kardashian jumping into a new market. do we worry about that market? carleton: if you're asking do we see private equity bubble, it is possible, we had $2 trillion in dry powder, a lot of money, not enough opportunity, that leads to higher asset valuation. than the fact that public markets have been in decline and citigroup found generally when it comes to public markets the pe market lacks by 1 to 2/4, we could be on a downtrend. why is kim kardashian doing this? like it or not she is a savvy marketer, savvy businesswoman, she launched her own companies

and we've seen this trend over a decade of celebrities saying i don't want to just to be a spokesperson and appear in a commercial, i want to own part of a complete, on some of the equity in the profit. not saying you should rush into it, i don't know if she will be successful but it is not a down move on her part. jack: we should not make fun of her business savvy but the private equity markets you don't know how the market is until the next round and then we will find out. let's talk about two good opportunities in public markets. al: pool pork, easy ticker, pool. some concern it will hit revenue earnings in 23. anytime there is a housing downturn it has been a great time to pick up shares. this is third-best performing stock over the last 30 years. jack: what is your answer? ben: football is back, the stock is up, it is hitting higher lows. probably a good time to look at

it. jack: the season kicked off thursday night, your prediction? ben: packers. carleton: eagles. jack: i will say bills beatbox. great productions, great ideas. to read more, check this week's addition of barron.com. that is all for us, see you next week on "barron's roundtable". >> from the fox studios in new york city, this is maria bartiromo's "wall street." maria: and happy weekend to all. welcome to the program that analyzes the week that was and helps position you for the week ahead. i'm maria bartiromo. hess than two months until the midterm elections, and the unifier in chief is trying to rally the democrat base with more divisive rhetoric against the gop. one of the highest ranking senate republicans, john thune, responds today. plus, federal reserve chairman jay powell says he's going to