concern such mistrust, if something terrible happens, we're together maybe for five minutes, one thing will say something outrageous, the other side will react, and i honestly do worry. gerry: i'll be back next week with more commentary and interviews here on the "wall street journal at large." in the meantime, thanks for joining us.

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the job of fighting inflation is done. joining me now apollo global management chief economist tourist in slack in the federal reserve is trying to slow down the economy. and we've seen some indications that maybe they're having success, but the labor market is still red hot. how does this play out? yeah, absolutely. i mean, in some sense, that's the whole problem that the fit would like to cool the economy down. because that's the main way you can cool inflation down today, inflation at 8.5% is just too high relative to the fed's target, which is 2% so that's why they fit needs to raise interest rates. that's why j. paul this week and also at jackson hole has been talking about. we need to raise rates further, and civil fomc members also now pointing to 75 basis points at the next meeting, and all that is exactly to cool the economy down and also ultimately to slow the labor market down 8.5 to 2. that's a fairly big delta as you economists say. jason furman had story or not bad in the wall street journal, saying that in order to achieve that slow down you're talking about we could

face unemployment of 6.5% for two years. is he being too pessimistic? well the important part of that discussion is to ask the question. why did inflation go up that inflation go up because of demand because of stimulus checks more unemployment benefits because people had more money, or did inflation go up because of supply chains? in other words, was this because of covid and because of the virus. because if it was the manned then the answer is well, then we need to destroy more domain and the fit needs to destroy demand and therefore pushed unemployment rate off. but if inflation on the other hand would not because of supply chains. well, then maybe we just need time to resolve this problem because the supply chain problems already getting better, and the fed has already written a number of working papers that look at this and there was a fit people from the san francisco fit that said about two thirds of the increase in inflation was because of supply chain problems and supply issues, and only one third was because of the man. so in some sense that fits own answer is we don't quite need need to get the unemployment rate all the way up to 6.5, because maybe just with time. some of these problems with resolve themselves once

transportation costs come down and the supply chain problems get better. so there's an important debate in the economic community about that question, and 6.5% is certainly a lot higher than the 3.7% unemployment rate we have today. so when you look at that debate, where do you come down, and where do you think the fed will have to go as it weighs all these things? yes. so the federal reserve themselves have a forecast, where they say their unemployment rate will only go up to a little bit more than 4. that's why estimates that as high as 6.5, of course, very controversial in this debate, because that would imply that we need a very substantial increase in the unemployment rate, and of course, we need therefore more unemployed people relative to what's required today. i think that the fed is right. i think that that we only need to see the unemployment rate go up a little bit more because i do think that a lot of the reasons why inflation went up. they were associated with covid there were associated with supply chain costs going up. they were also associated with pure people joining the labor market or more people staying at home because of long covid. so that may take a little bit longer, but i do think that if we just wait and

we will eventually see inflation come down, a lot of the inflation problem will resolve themselves. the question is, if we get all the way down to two, but we will certainly see inflation come down from the very high level of 8.5 of where we are today. okay, take all of this economics and let's put it on our portfolios. our viewers portfolios. what does this mean for the stock market? well, in very simple words. the bottom line is that the fed is trying to cool the economy down. so that's another way of saying the fittest trying to lower the e in the pe ratio. consequence of earnings, therefore, are too high us companies in the fifth view, that's what they're saying simply, i'm making too much money, so a way to slow down the economy is to slow down. hiring slowdown kept expending and ultimately trying to slow growth and therefore also slow earnings down. and if that's the key case , then the answer to your question is that the risks to this dark market and still to the downside simply because the fed is not quite done yet slowing the economy ready to what they would like to see because, remember, their goal is inflation needs to come down from 8.5 to 2, and if that involves as low economy, he will

also involved therefore slower earnings and therefore, unfortunately slower corporate growth in particular in earnings , but also in hiring any capex spending. now, in the long term , all of that somewhat negative sounding stuff would actually be good for bondholders. but in the short term, it sounds like even more pain in the bond market. yeah but that's exactly because in treasurys markets, of course, in particular when you have treasury portfolio at the moment , and inflation is 8.5 and 10 year rates are 3 30, then you have, of course, a significant erosion of your portfolio. thanks very much. tourists flock . thank you. millennials are convinced they won't see a dime of their social security retirement benefits. big chunk of working age americans are worried, too. are these fears legit? we're debunking the myths. when you can't watch listen. the latest news business and news headlines on sirius xm anytime anywhere news audio on sirius xm america is listening. meet him. tim was born to care

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bigfoot, mermaids and unicorns. many millennials think of social security as a myth for them. many older americans are starting to feel the same. the social security trust fund is on track to run out of money in 2034 barons managing editor kristen bell sram joins us now. so kristin polling shows that nearly half of millennials think they won't see a dime of their social security benefits. is that fear justified? well i mean , yes and no. i should start by saying the idea that millennials are going to see any social security benefits is very, very , very unlikely. but you know, both younger people and really all americans have reason to be nervous about the state of social security. as you said the social security retirement trust is on track to run out in 2034. this is the first year with the program actually paid out more and benefits than it had inflows . and you know, uh, trust a

bankrupt trust is not a good look, i would say, um, that it's not as bad as it sounds, because in reality, the trust is only paying a portion of benefits. uh and payroll taxes actually make up the majority. and even if we got to this situation and 2034, where the track was insolvent, you would still have these payroll taxes covering almost a bit more than 75% of benefits, so that's not great, but it is not zero. certainly 25% loss is not what people want. those people are older. they tend to vote more so i suspect that congress would see had in their best interest to do something about this. what levers could they pull to make us back to 100? well, i mean, there's a few basic ones that are out there raised taxes to increase in flows, cut the benefits in some way or raise retirement and twitch, you know, really is essentially a benefit cut, but it's one that can be phased in

slowly and it doesn't have the same impact on people as you know, getting a smaller check, so on the tax side. there has been discussion of thinking whether or not people who make more japan a more into the system, so right now, you are only taxing your payroll on $147,000 of income, and you know there's discussion about maybe looking at people who let make more than 400,000 and saying, you know, should these people be paying more in pets, kristen i'm curious as an elder millennial who would love to retire at some point. is there anything that you know whether it's millennials gen x or gen z can do to kind of offset that possible expected gaps in the coverage that they had been hoping for before? well i mean, i think, especially for millennials. the nice thing is that you have some time to plan for that and to save and you know the financial planners that we talked to said if you want to be conservative, maybe you want

to make your financial plan expecting you're going to make 2025% less in social security benefits, and people are collecting right now, so just to kind of run through the numbers, let's say you're 35 you make $100,000 a year if you wanted to replace a 20% cut in social security. you need to save an extra $33 a week, so that kind of gives you a sense of the type of savings changes that we're talking about. so kristin, i have people telling me that i should start taking social security as soon as i can, which isn't for a while, or others telling me that i should wait as long as possible. which one's right uh, i would say, definitely listen to the people who are telling you to wait because you know the way social security is set up. if you claim early, you are getting a smaller benefit. and you're locking that in for the rest of your life. if you're claiming at the full retirement age, you get 100% that's 67. if you are claiming even later, you're going to get

actually 8% more year. so the longer you can wait the better. and, you know, i think people get into, um maybe think of it slightly in the wrong way when they're trying to squeeze every dollar out of the system when you can think of it as longevity insurance. this is something where what you really want is to lock in those larger payments so that when you get to, you know your later years, you don't have a lot of options. you will have that security built up christian . these these these strategy discussions. we don't have them enough. like, what do you do in the case of a spouse about who takes what when and how you maximize that strategy. yeah, that's a great question. i think sometimes especially when people are making those calculations about what their lifetime benefit could be. they forget to factor in their spouse. and that's really important because social security has survivor benefits, so basically you know if one spouse were to die, the survivor can choose to either continue to get their benefit or

if their spouse's benefit is larger. they can actually take that instead. so like generally , the best strategy is for the person who makes the most money to wait as long as possible to claim and thereby luck in that larger payments. so you know, then you really setting up the family to be secure. so if that person you know lives for a long time, great. they get this larger benefit and if they were to die earlier than the expected , then they left their spouse and a really secure situation. kristen bell strum. it's great to have you on board at baron's welcome and thanks so much for breaking this down for us. we've got a big inflation report out next week, guys you're going to hear you're gonna be telling us where we should put our money to work next, and kim kardashian is looking to conquer another. other industry. so don't go anywhere. i'd like to thank our sponsor, liberty mutual, customize your car insurance or you only pay for what you need. contestants ready? go no, no, no

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damon launched that crypto .com commercial that coincided almost perfectly with the top of bitcoin. now we've got kim kardashian jumping into a new market. do we worry about that market, so we had to hold two ideas in our head at the same time, so if you're asking, do we see a private equity bubble? yeah it's quite possible that we have. for a long time pe has had about two trillion in dry powder. that means a lot of money chasing not enough opportunities so that leads to higher asset evaluations, then you also have the fact that public markets have obviously been in decline, and citigroup found that generally when it comes to public markets, the market lags by about 1 to 2 quarters so we could be on a downtrend there. but you've got to ask. why is kim kardashian doing this? and like it or not? she is a savvy marketer. a savvy businesswoman. she has launched some of her own companies, and we have seen this trend over a

decade of celebrities saying, hey, i don't want to just be a spokesperson get a few million for appearing in your commercial. i want to own part of the company. i want some of the equity. i want some of the profits. i'm not saying you should rush into her fund. i don't know if she will be successful, but it is not a dumb move on her part. we shouldn't make fun of kardashians business savvy, but i will say it's interesting with a private equity markets. you don't really know how the market is battling them until their next round, and then we'll find out so it could take a hit. let's talk about two good opportunities in the public markets. al, you've got an idea pool corp easy. ticker pool. um some concern that the housing market will hit revenues and earnings in 23 that might happen , but every time there's a housing downturn, it's been a great time to pick up shares. this is the third best performing stock in the s and p over the past 30 years. first two monster energy and amazon. ben what's your idea? this week ? draftkings being football is back. the stock has been beaten up, but it's hitting low, higher lows now. i think it's probably a good time to take a look at

it, and the season kicked off on thursday night, really quick super bowl prediction. ben broncos packard's carlton, i just gotta say eagles, al meatpackers. okay i'm gonna say bills beatbox. sorry tom brady. ben carlton. great predictions. great ideas to read more. check out this week's edition of barron's .com. don't forget to follow us on twitter at barron's online and that's all for us. we'll see you next week on is a paid presentation furnished by rare collectibles tv, llc. (music) (announcer) our country was founded on life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness. representing this idealism is our american eagle. the bald eagle was chosen in 1782 to represent the united states because of its long life, majestic looks and great strength. the eagle has since become part of our