something terrible happens, we're together maybe for five minutes, one thing will say something outrageous, the other side will react, and i honestly do worry. gerry: i'll be back next week with more commentary and interviews here on the "wall street journal at large." in the meantime, thanks for joining us. barons. sponsored by global x e. t. f s. welcome to barron's roundtable. will we get behind the headlines and prepare you for the week ahead? i'm jack otter coming up. we've got hawkish comments from fed chair j. powell what does apollo's chief economist think that means for your portfolio? plus should you be worried about your social security? we're debunking the myths and later from makeovers to takeovers.

what's behind kim kardashian's brand new venture? but we begin as always, with three things investors ought to be thinking about right now. stocks snapping a three week losing streak, but investors are anxiously awaiting new inflation reports next week. the fiduciary fight against green energy that pressure from an anti e s. g activist for oil companies to drill baby drill, but is that more profitable? and the apple unveil a big snoozer for most of us, but not for space companies will tell you why. on the barron's roundtable, my colleagues been leveson carleton english and al route. so ben traders finally started buying again this past week, and oddly enough, this time, i think maybe us investors were taking their cues from europe and so the other way around, right? we ended a three week losing streak and pretty big way and i think it has much to do with what was happening overseas. he had europe. these raised interest rates by three quarters of a point. point starting to keep up with the fed a bit. and that actually

had the effect of knocking down the dollar a little bit and the dollar really has been a problem because it you know, the higher the dollar goes, the more it eats into corporate profits for companies that sell stuff overseas, but you also had all this fear that's been gathering around europe that there would be some sort of calamity because of the situation with russian gas seems to have been pulled back a bit. there still worries, of course, but germany, for instance, is making a lot of progress on getting enough gas for the winter together. and so i think the thoughts that that's going to turn into an even bigger crisis. is that has started to dial back a little bit. one nice thing about a strengthening dollar, though, is that helps with inflation of bit. it could have fall so far that that's a problem again. i think that's unlikely. i mean the dollar. i mean, it's been so strong, but also because the united states is kind of a bastion of stability throughout all this, and so it might have gone up too much, but it's not going to fall back to a level that's going to cause i think any real problems with inflation. okay, that's good. but can we continue to be optimistic about everything else? i mean cpi numbers next week, right? cp is a bit scary.

you know, it's one number that the that is watching. and i think the biggest problem there is that even if we get a good number that doesn't mean the fed is going to dial back its on the from the rate hikes, and it still wants to slow down the economy. it's still wants to see inflation. get down to 2% and so we might get a positive reaction to the number if it comes in lower than expected, but i don't think that sent an all clear signal for a medium term perspective. gotcha car. let's go back to the oil prices. ben was disgusting, so really interesting dynamic here. environmentalists want less drilling for obvious reasons. well, some capitalists and financiers want less drilling because that's actually helping to keep the price up. but now an activist investor, tell chevron get those pumps going. exactly so we had an activist. very small stake in chevron. let's note, you know, basically 0.2% but telling chevron that it should actually focus more on energy production, and it should probably curb its spending on the energy transition to give you a point of reference. chevron has been saying that it plans to triple its low carbon investments to about 10 billion

through 2028. so there's the e s g thing going on here. there's a middle ground here right between the don't drill at all. and the drill baby drill people. the dsg thing has a lot of dynamics going on. so the middle ground aspect is okay. you might not be able to find an energy company that is pristine. but are they on the right path to embracing renewables? maybe curbing some of their production and, you know, building the company for the future. but then you do have so many pensions in states like florida and texas that are actually pulling away from sd oriented funds, claiming that their anti capitalist and you know it, they're going against fair market practices. funds had been doing pretty well for a while, probably because they're heavy and tech recently . it's been a sinner's market, right. defense stocks, energy stocks, etcetera, exactly, and there's a lot of people who are tempted to kind of go for these so called sin etfs. they have cute names like the vice x or twice. what we would say is take a look more at the sectors themselves. individually you

have the excellent which is up about 45% this year, you have one of the aerospace and defense e. t s. that is flat. but when you're looking at the broader s and p being down about 15% i'll take flat. absolutely let's talk about apple. often everyone gets really excited about that september event this year. the 14 not that different from the 13. but there was one cool aspect of it. i was excited. i like you because iphone 14 is going to have the ability to have some satellite connectivity so you can text when there's no cell phone coverage and limited basis. um so you know verizon, they have similar plans to have satellite conductivity t mobile, similar plans. what it means for me, of course, is you know this this nascent space economy this commercial space opportunity is real. apple will be paying hundreds of millions of dollars for this connectivity over the coming years. so it's a real business. so you know people

might not have liked the new camera, but i want to text so the stock market always finds ways to surprise you, though one of the biggest satellite companies stock went in the wrong direction, so globe star wins the business immediately. the stock goes down 10. ah you know, it's a case of buy the rumor sell the news. so there was a rumor that the iphone 13 would have this connectivity. you know, globalstar, it was up about 40% going into the iphone 14 event, so they finally win the contract and the stock goes down, then later in the day, elon musk tweets that his spacex had been talking to apple to about this satellite connectivity. globalstar goes down. another 10% closed the day down, almost 17 or 18% so it just goes to show you that you know, whatever is going on in the real economy trading these events is very hard. speaking of ellen, he and jeff brazos have created these companies with rockets that can literally land standing up. nasa can't even get its own rocket off the ground. what's going on there? it's a fair

point now. nasa is trying to do something very difficult, most powerful rocket ever they're trying to go to the moon and eventually to mars. so there is that, but what you said, is correct. but even nasa's problems and nasa's direction shows that this sort of commercial space businesses real nasa's leaning into commercial space as well. they're having companies like spacex and others do a lot of the work that they have been doing themselves for the last 50 years and that eventually will accrue to investors. thanks, al. the fed is looking to keep its foot on the brake in the fight against inflation. apollo's chief economist torsten slack on the impact to

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inflation is done. joining me now apollo global management chief economist tourist in slack in the federal service, trying to slow down the economy , and we've seen some indications that maybe they're having success, but the labor market is still red hot. how does this play out? yeah, absolutely. i mean, in some sense, that's the whole problem that the fit would like to cool the economy. me down. because that's the main way you can cool inflation down today, inflation at 8.5% is just too high relative to the fed's target, which is 2% so that's why they fit needs to raise interest rates. that's why j. paul this week and also at jackson hole has been talking about. we need to raise rates further, and civil fomc members also now pointing to 75 basis points at the next meeting, and all that is exactly to cool the economy down and also ultimately to slow the labor market down 8.5 to 2, that's fairly big delta as you, economists say. jason furman had story or not bad in the wall street journal, saying that in order to achieve that slow down you're talking about

we could face unemployment of 6.5% for two years. is he being too pessimistic? well, the important part of that discussion is to ask the question. why did inflation go up that inflation go up because of demand because of stimulus checks more unemployment benefits because people had more money, or did inflation go up because of supply chains? in other words, was this because of covid and because of the virus. because if it was the manned then the answer is well, then we need to destroy more domain and if it needs to destroy demand and therefore pushed unemployment rate off, but if inflation on the other hand would not because of supply chains. well, then maybe we just need time to resolve this problem because the supply chain problems already getting better, and the fed has already written a number of working papers that look at this and there was a fit people from the san francisco fit that said about two thirds of the increase in inflation was because of supply chain problems and supply issues, and only one third was because of demand. so in some sense that fits own answer is we don't quite need need to get the unemployment rate all the way up to 6.5, because maybe just with time. some of these problems with resolve

themselves once transportation costs come down and the supply chain problems get better. so there's an important debate in the economic community about that question, and 6.5% is certainly a lot higher than the 3.7% unemployment rate we have today. so when you look at that debate, where do you come down, and where do you think the fed will have to go as it weighs all these things? so the federal reserve themselves have a forecast, where they say their unemployment rate will only go up to a little bit more than 4. that's why estimates that as high as 6.5, of course , very controversial in this debate, because that would imply that we need a very substantial increase in the unemployment rate, and of course, we need therefore more unemployed people relative to what's required today. i think that the fed is right. i think that that we only need to see the unemployment rate go up a little bit more because i do think a lot of the reasons why inflation went up. they were associated with covid there were associated with supply chain costs going up. they were also associated with pure people joining the labor market or more people staying at home because of long covid. so that may take a little bit longer, but i do think that if we just

wait and we will eventually see inflation come down, a lot of the inflation problem will resolve themselves. the question is, if we get all the way down to two, but we will certainly see inflation come down from the very high level of 8.5 of where we are today. okay take all of this economics and let's put it on our portfolios. our viewers portfolios. what does this mean for the stock market? well, in very simple words. the bottom line is that the fed is trying to cool the economy down. so that's another way of saying the fit is trying to lower the e in the pe ratio. consequence of earnings, therefore, are too high us companies in the fits view. that's what they're saying simply are making too much money, so a way to slow down the economy is to slow down, hiring slowdown, capex spending and ultimately trying to slow growth and therefore also slow earnings down. and if that's the key case, then the answer to your question. is that the risks to this dark market still to the downside, simply because the fed is not quite done yet slowing the economy ready to what they would like to see because, remember, their goal is inflation needs to come down from 8.5 to 2 and if that involves as low economy, he

will also involved therefore slower earnings and therefore, unfortunately slower corporate growth in particular in earnings, but also in hiring any capex spending in the long term, all of that somewhat negative sounding stuff would actually be good for bondholders. but in the short term, it sounds like even more pain in the bond market. yeah but that's exactly because in treasurys markets, of course, in particular when you have treasury portfolio at the moment, and inflation is 8.5 and 10 year rates are 3 30, then you have, of course, a significant erosion of your portfolio. thanks very much towards since lock thank you. millennials are convinced they won't see a dime of their social security retirement benefits. big chunk of working age americans are worried, too. are these fears legit? we're debunking the my

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like bigfoot, mermaids and unicorns. many millennials think of social security as a myth for them. many older americans are starting to feel the same. the social security trust fund is on track to run out of money in 2034 barons managing editor kristen bell sram joins us now. so kristin polling shows that nearly half of millennials think they won't see a dime of their social security benefits. is that fear justified? well i mean, yes and no. i should start by saying the idea that millennials are going to see any social security benefits is very, very , very unlikely. but you know, both younger people and really all americans have reason to be nervous about the state of social security. as you said the social security retirement trust is on track to run out in 2034. this is the first year with the program actually paid out more in benefits than it had inflows. and you know, uh,

trust a bankrupt trust is not a good look, i would say, um, that it's not as bad as it sounds, because in reality, the trust is only paying a portion of benefits. uh and payroll taxes actually make up the majority. and even if we got to this situation and 2034, where the track was insolvent, you would still have these payroll taxes covering almost a bit more than 75% of benefits, so that's not great, but it is not zero. certainly 25% loss is not what people want. those people are older. they tend to vote more so i suspect that congress would see had in their best interest to do something about this. what levers could they pull to make us back to 100? well i mean, there's a few basic ones that are out there raised taxes to increase in flows, cut the benefits in some way or raise retirement and twitch, you know, really is essentially a benefit cut, but it's one that can be phased in

slowly and it doesn't have the same impact on people as you know, getting a smaller check, so on the tax side. there has been discussion of thinking whether or not people who make more japan a more into the system, so right now, you are only tax on your payroll on $147,000 of income, and you know there's discussion about maybe looking at people who let make more than 400,000 and saying, you know, should these people be paying more in pets, kristen i'm curious as an elder millennial who would love to retire at some point. is there anything that you know whether it's millennials gen x or gen z can do to kind of offset that possible expected gaps in the coverage that they had been hoping for before? well i mean , i think, especially for millennials. the nice thing is that you have some time to plan for that and to save and you know the financial planners that we talked to said if you want to be conservative, maybe

you want to make your financial plan expecting you're going to make 2025% less in social security benefits, and people are collecting right now, so just to kind of run through the numbers, let's say you're 35 you make $100,000 a year if you wanted to replace a 20% cut. in social security. you need to save an extra $33 a week, so that kind of gives you a sense of the type of savings changes that we're talking about. kristin i have people telling me that i should start taking social security as soon as i can, which isn't for a while, or have others telling me that i should wait as long as possible. which one's right i would say, definitely listen to the people who are telling you to wait because you know the way social security is set up. if you claim early, you are getting a smaller benefit. and you're locking that in for the rest of your life. if you're claiming at the full retirement age, you get 100% that's 67. if you are claiming even later,

you're going to get actually 8% more year. so the longer you can wait the better. and, you know, i think people get into, um maybe think of it slightly in the wrong way when they're trying to squeeze every dollar out of the system when you can think of it as longevity insurance. this is something where what you really want is to lock in those larger payments so that when you get to, you know your later years, you don't have a lot of options . you will have that security built up christian. these these these strategy discussions. we don't have them enough. like what do you do in the case of a spouse about who takes what when and how you maximize that strategy. yeah that's a great question. i think sometimes especially when people are making those calculations about what their lifetime benefit could be, they forget to factor in their spouse. and that's really important because social security has survivor benefits, so basically you know if one spouse were to die, the survivor can choose to either continue to get their benefit

or if their spouse's benefit is larger. they can actually take that instead. so like generally , the best strategy is for the person who makes the most money to wait as long as possible to claim and thereby luck in that larger payments. so you know, then you really setting up the family to be secure. so if that person you know who lives for a long time, great. they get this larger benefit and if they were to die earlier than the expected, then they left their spouse and a really secure situation. kristen bell strum. it's great to have you on board at baron's welcome and thanks so much for breaking this down for us. we've got a big inflation report out next week, guys you're going to hear you're gonna be telling us where we should put our money to work next, and kim kardashian is looking to ♪ my relationship with my credit cards wasn't good. i got into debt in college and, no matter how much i paid, it followed me everywhere. between the high interest, the fees... i felt trapped. debt, debt, debt.

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qr code on screen now. mm carlton when matt damon launched that crypto dot com commercial that coincided almost perfectly with the top of bitcoin. now we've got kim kardashian jumping into a new market. do we worry about that market, so we had to hold two ideas in our head at the same time, so if you're asking, do we see a private equity bubble ? yeah, it's quite possible that we have. for a long time pe has had about two trillion in dry powder. that means a lot of money chasing not enough opportunities so that leads to higher asset valuations. then you also have the fact that public markets have obviously been in decline, and citigroup found that generally when it comes to public markets, the pe market lags by about 1 to 2 quarters so we could be on a downtrend there. but you've got to ask. why is kim kardashian doing this? and like it or not ? she is a savvy marketer. a savvy businesswoman. she has launched some of her own companies, and we have seen

this trend over a decade of celebrities saying, hey, i don't want to just be a spokesperson get a few million for appearing in your commercial. i want to own part of the company. i want some of the equity. i want some of the profits. i'm not saying you should rush into her fund. i don't know if she will be successful, but it is not a dumb move on her part. we shouldn't make fun of kardashians business savvy, but i will say it's interesting with a private equity markets. you don't really know how the market is battling them until their next round, and then we'll find out so it could take a hit. let's talk about two good opportunities in the public markets. al, you've got an idea pool corp easy. ticker pool. um some concern that the housing market will hit revenues and earnings in 23 that might happen, but every time there's a housing downturn , it's been a great time to pick up shares. this is the third best performing stock in the s and p over the past 30 years. first two monster energy and amazon. ben what's your idea? this week? draftkings being football is back. the stock has been beaten up, but it's hitting low, higher lows now. i think it's probably a good time to take a look at it,

and the season kicked off on thursday night, really quick super bowl. prediction ben broncos packers. carlton i just gotta say eagles packer's gonna say bills beatbox. sorry tom brady, ben carlton. great predictions. great ideas to read more. check out this week's edition of barron's dot com. don't forget to follow us on twitter that's asked barron's online and that's all for us. we'll see you >> from the fox studios in new york city, this is maria bartiromo's "wall street." maria: and happy weekend to all. welcome to the program that analyzes the week that was and helps position you for the week ahead. i'm maria bartiromo. hess than two months until the midterm elections, and the unifier in chief is trying to rally the democrat base with more divisive rhetoric against the gop. one of the highest ranking senate republicans, john thune, responds today. plus, federal reserve chairman jay powell says he's going to