cool. thanks. no problem. voya helps me feel like i've got it all under control. because i do. oh she is good. voya. well planned. well invested. well protected. phil neville inflation front and center. we' ve got you covered on all aspects of that. the labor secretary talking the most generous need for railway workers that could be very inflationary. we thought it would make a backdrop to discuss because this is the number one concern of americans. edward lawrence, jennifer griffin looking at how soldiers will go on food stamps to avoid basic necessities, ashley webster on how it is affecting

orange prices and accelerating about inflation rate. let's go to edward lawrence, to show surprise surprise, this is a big concern for americans. inflation period. >> fox news polling showed inflation will play a big role in the midterm elections, the way people vote. a new fox news poll shows voters the biden administration has been competent and effective managing government, 52% say no, only 38% say yes. when you look at specific performance in certain areas poll numbers on the president's handling of inflation abysmal, 29% approve, 65% disapproval. the economy, 38% approve, more than half of registered voters disapprove of the job performance on energy and climate change, this poll was taken before the celebration this week over the inflation reduction act the same day, a

near 40 year high, core inflation increasing for the first time in 5 months, the white house and democrats are out of touch. >> he is tone deaf, must live in a fantasy land. 4. 3%, food prices are way up, even in the month of august, a celebration on inflation, what he is doing is causing more inflation, hurting families across my state. phil neville from the president's perspective things are going well, celebrated a negotiated agreement with rail unions. here he is from the rose garden two hours ago. >> president biden: this allows us to rebuild a better america. for working people and their families. today is a win for america. >> reporter: the president will

focus his remarks on an event about the threat to our democracy and later tonight the congressional hispanic caucus gala reaching out to those voters. phil neville jennifer griffin, soldiers right now talk about pennypinching. >> reporter: if you want to know how bad inflation has gotten look at the most recent announcement from the army, that active-duty soldiers and their families who cannot afford food on government salaries should consider running the federal food stamp program. newly released -- the command sergeant major suggest soldiers and their families use the supplement on nutrition assistance program known as snap and speak with financial counselors to remain on budget, quote, with inflation affect everything from gas prices to groceries to rent some soldiers and their families are finding it harder to get by on the

budgets. soldiers of all ranks seek guidance assistance and advice through the army's financial readiness program. a recent survey by the center for strategic and international studies found food insecurity among military families at an all-time high. 14% of 4500 and listed active-duty family respondents listed low or very low food security in 2,020. fort bragg, home to the premier units, a study by u.s. army installations found 33% of the 5600 respondents were, quote, marginally food insecure. among items they are short of, diapers. the independence fund providing food and household items to thousands of active-duty military families throughout family called feeding independence, more worrisome, pentagon comptroller made it clear to the senate armed services committee back in may that the pentagon would not

address inflation in fiscal year 23 budget writing the department is not developed any legislative proposal significant to inflation and the pentagon has no plan to address the current inflation spike. with current record high inflation at a time of heightened risks across the globe, this news is unlikely to help the military meet its recruiting numbers which were also at a historic low. phil neville talk about a double rannie, jennifer griffin following that. every day prices going up, up, and away but it put a squeeze on orange growers. the latest from ashley webster in florida. misael arellanes did you just say squeeze on orange growers. i said that's too obvious. at an orange grove, i'm in an orange grove in west central florida. they have another month to go before they become fully

mature, they turn orange and end up getting squeezed into orange juice but there are couple problems facing orange growers, big what is the green searching disease caused by a tiny asian insect that wreaks havoc. this is what it looks like. is smaller and misshapen and bitter and not available for sale, that is a huge problem. i want to show you some numbers, production levels of florida oranges going back to 2007-8, production was 15 years ago, 250 million boxes of oranges, fast forward to the latest numbers, 41 boxes of oranges down 83. 5%. let's look at some drone footage as we can tell you the acreage devoted to citrus production has dropped dramatically, down to 375,000 acres, at one point not long

ago, 900,000 acres so how do you survive when you grow oranges, just the person to ask, steve johnson. 's family has been working this land for 85 years. not only do you have greening to deal with but you have labor costs disappearing land because of how many people are moving to florida, how do you keep going? >> we are resilient. we are in the business not-for-profit but a way of life and that is what we want to do and produce a product that is worldwide and healthy for everyone. neil: production is way down which would suggest prices going up. are you making more money? what about the consumer going to the grocery store? >> i wish we were making more but that is not the way it is. our profit margins have shrunk and office production is down. we are going forward doing what we do.

ashley: it went up during the pandemic. has a that level? >> a small increase is encouraging, people realizing it is healthy natural drink. neil: before i leave you, these numbers, the number of growers in florida and how they are disappearing. look at this number, into thousand 7 there were in 2007 there were 8000 growers in florida. fast forward to this year, 2500, that is a huge drop, very difficult and the value of the land all develop it is going on is mighty tempting to these farmers who are struggling to battle those elements to produce there oranges. interesting state of affairs but the price of orange juice won't go down anytime soon. neil: the possibilities for real estate, a tough thing to compete with. wild stuff. ashley webster, inflation is alive and well and not improving anytime soon and it is also number one in a variety

of poles on most issues pressing on voters. you have been talking about this as well that it would not be a short development but getting more signs you are right and it might be a while before it gets under control. what do you think? >> reporter: absolutely right. the fed could raise rates 200 basis points, it won't change the inflationary problem with food and rent and they are hiking rates, and it will make the problem worse. they will give the markets time to make these rate hikes, and with the cpi number we've got, it is a problem and the biggest problem is the amount of balance sheet reduction. you have to fact check me on this but the first 10 days of

this month the balance sheet dropping $20 billion. it was $40 billion in august, accelerating at a fast pace, you can't increase credit, the rate of interest that fast and not expect things to fall apart. neil: selling at the tomb of $90 billion a month at the rate they are going, and we are focused on rates hiking, and all the notes the treasury is selling. >> never in the history of the stock market are we so reliant on the federal reserve and what they will do next and you mention notes and not being able to sell those notes on open market, that something we should be concerned about the we are so reliant what the fed is going to do next because of how accommodative they've been with fiscal spending problems for so long since 2008-9. the us economy and the world

economy was fueled with low cost borrowing, that fueled companies to take risk and invest in new growth areas. when debt is that cheap companies and people are willing to take more risk which means companies grow quickly. when debt becomes more expensive which it is becoming the margin of error is much less, people are forced to lighten up so when companies lighten up they don't grow as fast and when people can't spend money because they have no savings that gets reflected in stock earnings so wall street is estimating 8% earnings growth next year. i don't see how it is feasible when you get to 8% earnings growth. i would not be surprised if it is relatively flat which is where i think the big drop in the market is going to come to probably june lows if not lower. neil: i spoke a while ago on this apparent deal to avoid nationwide rail strike, but when you look at key components

of the deal and generous pay, for the workers, i wondered if it was necessarily for all americans for whom those costs are passed along, this is from my exchange with marty walsh and i would like to get your thoughts. when you talk about people learning a lot from negotiation or settlement, others might take with it and say rail worker has a 24% pay hike. i went in on that. are you worried that is a trendsetter? >> i'm not worried and workers in america deserve a fair wage. when you look at what is going on with those workers, what they have gone through they deserve a fair wage. neil: i know what you are saying, the 14% that is retroactive, 24% through 24, how you slice it well beyond.

>> i could be wrong and if i am i will apologize but 24% increase over a 5-year period. neil: technically it is not but i will leave that aside. i'm happy for the rail worker but the other issue, other unions, private, public, look at that and say i want that, do you worry about that? >> absolutely. that will cause a snowball effect and guess who will pay the bill? the consumer in the consumer has been hit from all angles. this is just going to add to the inflationary problems, the fed can't stop some of these things and only make them worse. the consumer will get a knockout punch and we are heading into a global recession and investors need to respect what is happening under the hood from a fiscal perspective, the bond market and income

perspective because the bond market is getting crystal clear signals where we are heading in the near future. neil: the argument sound similar to what we do when we give kids college loans, schools invariably hyped their tuition or what have you so a deal like this would lead to higher prices, shipping costs and dollar rest and the cycle goes on and on. what do you think? >> as ronald reagan said the 9 most terrifying words in english language are i am from the government and i'm here to help. inflation is caused by the ridiculous spending by washington and how accommodative the fed has been for 13 years straight, by basic logic you shouldn't trust the people who caused the issues to fix those issues. they usually make those issues worse which the government continues to do. anytime the government prints money that is a concern, the government is trying to patch

an issue with money which causes more issues. look at the inflation reduction act. it is like a family member that thinks money solves every problem. might not be involved in your life but send you money every once in a while. makes them feel better. of the government wanted to fix these issues like inflation they would take a step back and let the free market recalibrate and readjust themselves. neil: to echo your point, a two year note was at 3.8%, the markets are higher, not expectations but higher rates beyond that whether it is over the private markets, more after this.

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>> they told us it would be 31/2 hours to get to that. it has been over 10 hours. neil: imagine waiting 10 hours online to get one last glimpse of queen elizabeth ii lodz that tells you all you need to know about the love, the world over,

these include tourists who came for this occasion. jonathan hunt has been covering this so well from the heart and mind, he knows where they are coming from, why they wait in long lines for this moment. what is the latest? >> reporter: good afternoon. ever since the westminster hall opened to the public, some 25 hours or so ago now, thousands have been filing through. it is an endless stream of people, the river of humanity crossing the river thames from the lines and filing through westminster hall. it is incredibly silent inside the hall, everybody being extremely respectful as they go through and you look at those live lines, people have been bowing, people have been clasping their hands in prayer, people have incurred seeing, any way they can show a final

display of respect to queen elizabeth ii, they have been doing so. the line which snakes away from westminster hall and could go all the way to southern park which is 5 miles away, that line already now is 4 and a half miles on and more and more people are pouring into london as the weekend approaches and officials are saying they believe that line could get as long as 10 miles and the length of wait time could go up as high as 30 hours. we are understanding people are waiting about 8 hours but you are right to point out that is the level of respect and love that so many people have and had for queen elizabeth ii so they are willing to wait as long as they need to wait.

a lot of the royal family have been fanning out across the uk to receive condolences, to look at the tributes left in so many places. prince and princess of wales, kate and william, where there earlier today north and slightly east of london. it is our favorite place of queen elizabeth. she spent a lot of times at the residence and the prince and princess of wales were there to acknowledge the many who turned out to pay their respects to queen elizabeth their too. a lot going on, king charles has had a quieter day as he no doubt needs after the physical and emotional strain last week has taken on him and he will obviously be front and center again over the next few days, he heads to wales, the last of the four uk countries to visit as king. tomorrow, and obviously from sunday, he will be welcoming

almost heads of state coming here including president biden. neil: thank you for that. in the meantime, not just goldman thinking about laying off workers but charlie gasparino is next after this. ♪ (vo) while you may not be a pediatric surgeon volunteering your topiary talents at a children's hospital — your life is just as unique. your raymond james financial advisor gets to know you, your passions, and the way you give back. so you can live your life. that's life well planned.

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neil: curious developments at the corner of wall and broad including the financial community in general, you hear goldman sachs laying off workers but it is not that black and white. charles: before we get into that there is no better way to fake intelligence than to wear glasses or speak likening this guy. can you speaking. ? neil: don't feel sorry especially people who write letters and emails.

charles: can you talk like british? neil: no i can't and you don't have any compassion for me. neil: if you wear glasses and talk british, people think you are smart, you see some guys talk about the queen, the queen -- neil: get on with it, what is your story? charles: the queen had an amazing sense of humor. here is what we have. there is no targeted firm -- they will denied and they are coming out, they say no plans, they are planning. there is no plan yet. one place where we understand we are looking to hire, in the restructuring departments. what does this mean, if you have higher interest rate

environment, you can guarantee there will be restructuring of loans, refinancings, companies going out of business. of the 20th is a counter -- charles: wall street wants that but when sources are confirming at least at morgan stanley and everyplace else they are looking to i hiring. is this good news? no. when you hire restructuring, wall street things we have a steeper session coming. companies, particularly heavily indebted companies, the environment we just came out of, the fed is printing money for two straight years, low interest rates before that, trump was screaming at powell not to raise short-term interest rates, put that together and you have a debt boom particularly with leveraged buyouts coming back. which unwound at the end of the 80s. now it is gone, rising interest

rates and the potential at some point soon, bankruptcies, corporate structure, you name it, that is coming, bad news for companies, wall street has an opportunity. they will restructure now. this is a small part of wall street, not a huge part but an interesting part and a lucrative part. other parts of wall street will cut back. neil: no m&a activity have no ipos. charles: the ideas we put on screen, they will cut back and goldman is the first, kind of like a warm-up drill next year where the rubber meets the road. back to you. i love the glasses. i want an english look. why doing which people sound smart? they are not that smart.

prince charles is smart. neil: i'm not here to judge. neil: did you see them describe the queen? neil: look at the time. are you blood he done? thank you very much, charlie gasparino, the best of the best. vivek ramashwami joins us now, it is a point i know you have been thinking about this environment where it might not be great for workers or at least those in existing jobs. tell me what you are seeing. >> there's a lot of directions to go but for workers in existing jobs at the end of the day one thing they talk about in my upcoming book is we have a new culture of laziness that permeates the private sector so it does take two to tango, the

culture of laziness in the private sector is something decreasing the productivity of the workforce and when you combine that with top-down forces you get to a less productive economy so you take this and progression. neil: who are the victims? >> we have a new national identity based on victimhood. we see ourselves as black victims, white victims, liberal victims, even increasingly conservative victims. the case i make is victimhood is in some ways a product of our status as an incumbent. you saw the same thing and patterns of the rise and fall of rome, there are many rises and many falls and the same is true of the american experiment as well but part of the way out of this is to revive a shared national identity around the pursuit of excellence, that is part of what it meant to be american and what it can mean to be american again. neil: what happens in an environment like this? what we are experiencing is not markedly different from what is

going on in europe or been popping up in asia. for a while the workers were in the proverbial drivers seat and more in that position in this country and others, but that pendulum is swinging. where do you see it going? >> it will change in times of economic hardship. argument i make in the book is pending economic hardship can be good for us culturally in the long run as a country if we are able to derive fortitude from it. hardship is not the same as victimhood. a lot of workers, we have a pandemic era policy that incentivized people to stay home. we have been flush with government cash for a long time, that is in the back of the 15 year cycle of artificial spending driven by federal reserve policy like skiing on artificial snow. that era is coming to us legal. that will require actual increases in real productivity. that will call to action companies to increase their

productivity but will require a change in dynamic for workers where people who alternately assumed they were going to have a job because that was the way it was the last four years realize that environment is changing, that causes workers at the individual level to force themselves to be as productive as they can, to compete for jobs and while that will create a more difficult economic environment in the near-term, that will be positive, have a positive externality over the long run. neil: we are watching closely, the book is a nation of victims. very enthusiastic about it. you really want to be energetic about a point where we are going and i had some authors on, no names named but they are not that -- you have a book you got it. he gets it and is passionate about it. larry kudlow is passionate about getting the numbers right. when he heard the administration talk about

things going on, leave it to larry to do a little math and say wages are not upcoming inflation, they are really down and as that is exciting, he is next. ♪ ♪

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(adam and cecily) all included. (cecily) on the network you want to be on. (adam) exactly. we could be up here all weekend, listening to the weeknd. (cecily) while flinging angry birds. (adam) not you, you're lovely. are you napping? (cecily) no, i'm watching my favorite show-starring me. (vo) get your apple favorites. all in one plan. introducing one unlimited for iphone. and now, get iphone 14 pro on us. only on verizon. >> employers aren't raising salaries fast enough to cover the inflation. >> more jobs than i want to but i don't want to work anymore. i want to retire and that's not happening either. >> i went back to work part-time, to ensure it didn't affect us too much. neil: the administration is arguing wages are going up, jobs soaring, but the reality

is whatever americans are making they are paying more than that and larry said something interesting, net net the average family is raising 3. 4% of real wages, kind enough to join us now at 4:00 eastern time. so it is not how the administration portrays it. >> they will not acknowledge inflation. they like james taylor on the guitar. neil: they chose him to have more upbeat songs. >> they should have taken his ex-wife carly simon. neil: never met someone so vain. >> i think it will hurt them, it is hurting the rest of the country on a daily basis. they are in denial and have always been in denial and i

would also say the recent legislation they are so proud of, the inflation reduction act, all the semi conductor giveaways still silicon valley people and also the student loan cancellations, these are pro inflation and they will increase inflation, student loan will increase demand, they are doing the wrong thing, at loggerheads with the fed. they have a situation where jay powell has finally gotten his inflation manhood back, grown hair on his chest to fight this thing. the fed is tightening money and the government, the federal government is losing money. is completely at odds with each other and going to force the fed, regrettably for the economy force the fed to be even more aggressive.

neil: would the fed be preemptively aggressive, it goes a little extra. >> they don't have to wait for meetings. they can enter meetings. neil: it used to be common. >> greenspan the same way. i saw in the paper the larry summers wants the fed, absolutely agree with that. the fed will be a 4 percentage point and in november, in december because the cpi shows inflation is embedded and worst of all spreading, the core inflation, meeting inflation from the cleveland fed rising every single month, these are big problems. once it starts it is difficult.

neil: you are an economist, you worked at the white house, surely people that morning. we don't think, then as the day ensued. they will hold this, but they went full throttle with that and given the president the benefit of the doubt, yet they oblivious, satisfying the base, i look at the thousand or so and figured that is the base right there. >> mostly government workers -- neil: they could have canceled it. >> they will get the cpi number, they knew all about this. that is the way it works.

neil: they went through it. they didn't change the script. it is a ten political year. looking at the polls, the latest fox poll, inflation and the economy, number one issues like 35%, way above anything else, it is way above row versus wade, climate change -- neil: more of that. >> got retail sales number, in nominal terms sales go up and that is going to be damaging for third-quarter gdp. i will be interested in what the gdp tracker shows, and the potential for another negative quarter, it was up 2.5%, knocked it down to 1.3% retail

sales 50% spending, that is damaging to gdp which will come out in late october. neil: they seem to be wrestling with this idea, should we worry more about the fed hiking rates or what happens afterwards, any statistic that shows a slowdown and decreasing activity and then they get worried. they don't know. >> this is a difficult difficult period and the only comment, i'm not a short-term guy, i would say this inflation fighting story and this stagflation story with the economy slumping is going to go on for quite some time and even, i am an optimist, i think the gop takes both houses. . 20 they are fighting more among themselves.

>> one can argue that when we are other. neil: you think they will have a good november. >> even if they do they are not going to jump in and turn this story around overnight. this is a multi-year problem. you and i have seen this movie before. you can't take inflation rate from 10 to 2 and not suffer the consequences, particularly when you don't get help from fiscal policy, it would be wonderful instead of raising taxes in this inflation bill, they should be spurring production. of the 20 this administration would have never done that. >> that would ameliorate the problem on the supply side or mr. biden has put in $200 billion of new regulatory costs in his first year, 40 times what trump did and more than what barack obama did, we've never seen a regulatory assault like this,

we should be cutting regulations, we should be spurring economic growth, we should be making it pay more to work, produce, and invest. that would help the fed so the fed is coming out on the demand side bringing gdp. if he. 20 it is too late for that. the billionaire investor saying you get 4.5% talking about 20% in the market, he thinks we are going up 6%, how highs high? in rates? >> right now 6%. i happen to agree with that. neil: getting up to 4% alone, just that would do it. neil: >> the stock market outlook is very difficult right now. very difficult. you will see a lot of markdowns coming. it is just beginning. neil: i had a guest on earlier who said it is outstanding but

it has to do with growing fears republicans don't run up in november. >> there is that. my reading of that story is more benign, the gop, just looking at the sheer economic numbers, we are in the worst of all worlds, what milton friedman called 60 years ago inflationary recession and that term became stagflation. this will not go away quickly. if mr. dahlia, who i know, if the underlying inflation rate is 6% or 7% which is what the atlanta fed wage tracker is showing, 7%, 4% fund rate will not do it and the fed balance sheet is very fat. there's a lot of cash. i know the money supply has come down but the base money is

substantial sloshing around the economy. neil: the unwinding is a hit for the economy. >> you are back to 7% on the 30 year fixed-rate mortgage. don't forget the bond market is no longer being supported by the fed and it will get worse as they run off their portfolio and start selling securities. hard to sell mortgages today to sell treasuries. that means market rates, not just the fed funds target rate, market rates will go up. corporate bond rates, stock market multiples are going to go down. long run i always bet on the stock market, long run. neil: i am at the age that the long run is lunch on monday. give me a better forecast. >> i just had a birthday. it is not a small number. neil: i hear you.

>> a very difficult period. this could have been -- i want to make this case, this could have been avoided. i say this, it could have been avoided. we were on the right track, authorized track, we will have major change in policy, stock market investors, people in business. neil: maybe not prepared. >> working folks who saw wages fall 3%, they are going to get heard and i see devilish i hate to see them get hurt. neil: putting the big picture together, larry kudlow is the best on this fine network. we should point out to larry's view, in and out of around of 3.9%, that tends to be a worrisome sign, we will have more on that after this.

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neil: by now and pay later, a lot of americans, stacy is here, retail advisors founder, this is like a ticking time bomb, isn't it? >> for some consumers, the 89%

who paid off is fine, but we are getting into a slippery slope because more consumers are putting on their credit cards and also higher approval rates which implies more people are gaining loans than they should and finally it is not regulated which is the conversation today. i can take out several different buy now pay later options. i'm in debt especially if i'm a younger consumer, to planning. neil: we were cleaning up the balance sheets for individuals during covid. looks like we are getting back in bad ways. >> that has reversed itself, credit card balances are up 13% versus last year and inflation, we are paying almost 10% more of our items but wages are

certainly not keeping pace with balances and inflation so the question is is the consumer being encouraged to stretch themselves when they are making less or more? neil: how does this end? >> i think it is a positive that there is regulation. for some of the players you pay monthly and there is a small fee when you don't pay and they cut you off if you have a history of not paying so they don't give you more credit but as we get into the credit card, more credit card loans, it is a slippery slope so regulation is a good thing and bigger players welcome it. . 20 we will watch closely, thank you very much. we are little more like scarlett o'hara, we will think about it tomorrow, more after this. is... is the planning effect. this is how it feels to have a dedicated fidelity advisor looking at your full financial picture. this is what it's like to have a comprehensive wealth plan

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♪ ♪ ♪ voltaren. the joy of movement. ♪ neil: all right, we're trying to make a go of it. the dow up 38 points. we've got interest rates backing up. charles payne to take you through all of that. charles: neil, i tell you i dig those specs. neil: final anice thing about my glasses. thank you, my friend. charles: i don't even know where you got it them from. good afternoon, i'm charles payne. this is "making money." right now the market under pressure for most of the session but listen there, is a avalanche of data, we're combing through it. the bias has been to the downside. i will tell you something i actually see a few things we can get a big pop in tomorrow's session. i can't wait to talk to our experts about it, most are on the cautious side righ