american did not know. >> the ship landed on cape cod november 21 that year, 66 days after setting sail. >> ashley just schooled me. stuart: it's been a great week, ashley, lauren, thank you for all the help is been terrific and we will be back next week to do it again. why not. my time is absolutely up. my weekend begins now. neil it is yours. neil: thank you very much my friend we have a selloff going on despite news you would think would be accommodative but not so today, what are the things we followed what's happening with the dow transportation average, a lot of people subscribing to the dow theory, look at transferring stocks, there among them tracking, real concerns, airlines is supposed to be an indication of future demand building for the economy. if that is the case and given the roughly 22% fall we seen in

the average this year and better than 8% just this month. by far the leader in the falloff outside of technology stocks, the reason why people look at the performance of a fedex, of course you have the bad news on that and jetblue, csx big trucking, american airlines, overnight delivery, the big real concern, i go on and on, 20 plus components to this. the reason they get a lot of attention among those as the economy, the shipping people and goods and the feeling is, the notion is this could be a preview of a coming attraction to the economy you know ship's many goods, you know ship is many people, you don't transport as many anything. it could be signaling a slowdown, it's not always right but among it the bowties including people, the billionaire investor peter lynch of course, fidelity magellan it

is something that they look at and they're probably worrying about it, kelli o'grady spelling out where we stand with all the economic news today. >> good to see you we have a roller coaster ride in the market this morning on fears of recession. were off session lows but nowhere near raleigh territory the dow, nasdaq and s&p 500 all down hovering worst since mid july. what you said is driving the selloff aesthetics the ceo warning of a pending global recession of the company pulling the full-year guidance and earnings release saying global volumes declined as macroeconomic trends significantly worsened later in the quarter internationally and the u.s. given the speed at which conditions shifted below expectation, that stock is hovering down 23% if sustained it would be the biggest one-day fall for fedex since 1978. the company anticipated demand

to increase after chinese factories reopened but global shipment volumes fell as consumers by inflation retailers manage access inventory, competitors, ups, packaging corporate america, amazon falling on the news as we enter what would normally be the busiest season with the holidays. another warning coming from general electric shares slumping after the cfo cautioned ongoing supply chain disruptions are affecting everything from labor, parts and materials, making it difficult to deliver products to customers. before we break i want to highlight what's going on with the treasury yield the two-year at 3.9% earlier today for the first time since 2007. it slipped back below as of now but it's important as the tenure has seen little movement. that means the yield curve is deepening another red hearing for recession and that's reflective of investor sentiment following the red-hot inflation report earlier this week and expecting aggressive rate height from the fed next week. going back to the fedex warning as you said delivery companies are the proverbial canary in the

coal mine, fedex at the holden earnings call next week that she get more color on what we can expect for the holiday delivery and shopping season ahead. neil: thank you for that, kelli o'grady following all the subelements in los angeles. i want to go to edward lawrence in the white house, more and more people are saying recession are rising whether you want to characterize it by the classic definition of two negative quarters in a row or by the whole global view of the world bank saying it's inevitable next year certainly now you have the added fear that may be what were getting out of fedex in the sign of a global slide and demand something big is out for, what are the folks in the boat and behind you saying. >> they say move along, nothing to see here which is what i would love to say to this construction truck set up next to me. from the white house perspective, they are downplaying this a fox news poll shows 89% of americans are extremely or very concerned about inflation. the white house is basically saying they understand americans

pain with inflation but they need more time to bring it down they stress their policies are working. >> the president's number one economic priority has been lowering cost for the american people. anything about the inflation reduction act which was only passed by democrats, republicans refuse to get on board and pass in a bipartisan way, a lower cost for medicare recipients capped at 2000 year when our seniors are paying $2000 or more a month. >> look at what all the government spending has pushed since president biden took office, you see where americans passed the american rescue pillion, the world bank warns, because of inflation in the u.s. and around the globe a global recession is more likely within the next year, the american petroleum institute says investments in u.s. oil and natural gas will go a long way to reverse what's happening in the u.s. economy but the

administration will not pitted on energy regulations like europe has started to do. >> we don't want to be in the position that europe finds itself in or for that matter we don't want to follow the path of california either whether talking about rolling blackouts because of heat waves, this country has the resources right under our feet to support the american people and provide for energy security. >> the line from the white house, there downplaying saying they have everything under control with the spending that they have done, eventually bring costs down but they're not talking about inflation coming down. back to you. neil: edward you handle that so clearly and smoothly in the face of all the lot obstructions. touché to you. edward lawrence i want to go to mark tepper strategic wealth partners president ceo, everyone is talking about what the fed does next week there is a consensusbuilding of three quarters of 8% hike which would be the third hike in a row for the fed. one out of five seem to think the odds are we could get as

high as a full percentage point jump, what do you think. >> with unemployment at 3.7%, the fed they have been saying this, they have been telegraphing this, they are going to fight inflation to the fullest extent of their ability is either going to bring pain and strain entry destroying demand and the stock market has kinda been like you're joking, i think the market is finally understanding. i would expect, i'm still expecting 75 basis points next week. another 75 in november. another 25 - 50 in december, were the looking at an action-packed three months. right now the fed fund futures is pricing in 4.4 - 4.5% as the terminal fed funds rate. so we have a long way to go, the one thing that i think there is a big huge disconnect as the market is still pricing in almost two cuts in the second half of next year.

i think it's highly unlikely that that happens. neil: is not really the case, that still exist i thought that would've been blowing out with the latest data, still hanging onto that to help the second of next year everything is hunky-dory? >> yeah, the second half of next year it looks like the fed funds rate comes down about 40 basis points. it is almost twofold cuts at that point. neil: there is no way that could happen. >> there's absolutely no way. i feel like the fed we've heard jay powell you kinda been invoking paul volker and stuff like that. i feel like the fed has learned from mistakes of the past, they can go through history, they can see the issues that plagued our country with runaway inflation turning into stagflation in the 70s and the beginning of the 80s they seen what happened there in the really committed to making sure history does not

repeat itself this time. one of the biggest issues back then, the fed took their foot off the brake too soon and jay powell has made it very clear we will not be taking her foot off the brake too soon. if anything we will leave our foot on the brake too long, i think if anything they over hike rather than under hike. neil: they already made it clear jerome powell a few weeks ago in jackson hole wyoming, even when were done were sort of going to stay up on her perch, look at things and not make any moves sudden or otherwise, they have that to look forward to, while i have you i would get your thoughts on what's happening with the dow transportation average many savvy investor, may be among them use as a proxy on where things could be going, the dow theorist like to say as rails and trucking concerns and auto concerns, carbon clone concerns, airlines, so go the economy. is not always ironclad but it's

a worry, this average is down 8% plus this month, more than 22% on the year, what do you think? >> the dow theory might be old-school but it still works today. when a company like fedex when they come out they pull a guide in and they say this potentially worldwide recession that they're concerned about. when fedex talks you better listen there one heck of a bellwether for the economy. when you look at the transportation stocks that is a good litmus test of what we should expect going forward. i will add there is one other proxy that i think you can use in today's newer economy which is the performance of semiconductors, computer chips versus software, when you see semiconductors outperforming software because you need the computer chip first and then the software goes on the computer chip, that is kind of a sign

that the economy is in a good place when the semiconductors are underperforming, that is a sign of troubling times. we have been seen semiconductors underperforming software as w well. neil: your bedding next week a three-quarter point hike and how high do we go? if you had similar hikes every meeting, you could easily get this thing over 4% and talking about fed funds. >> the fed has never stopped hiking rates until the fed funds rate has gotten above the inflation rate. the university of michigan data that just came out today says that americans expect inflation one year from today to be a 4.6%. that would mean a year from today, the fed funds rate if they're done hiking should exceed 4.6% as well as i mentioned earlier, right now the market is pricing and 4.4% as the top end of that range. i think it probably about 4.5. you mentioned radar leo and i

also heard from jeff gundlach this week as well, radar leo particular said if we hit 4.5%, the markets should expect another 20% selloff which is very, very concerning, but to hear more and more people come out and say that 4.5 looks nasty and i think and believe we will get there. >> i think he thinks were to go to 6% he didn't say whether 20 plus% fall off because if we get that high, but it is worrisome, thank you very much our temper following all of that into mark's point if you have to get the overnight make lending rate at the inflation rate were running 8.5%. even after next week's after we go to point hike at 3% you can argue we have a long way to go the hope is you keep raising rates in the inflation rate starts coming down so you don't have to raise them all that much but you can see the gap between roughly 3% next week at this time in inflation rate of 8.5%.

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neil: the biden administration is considered litigation against three of the governors i think or talk about arizona governor ducey, texas governor abbott and florida to governor desantis shipping, busing migrants to other cities and states across the country. jacqui heinrich has more from the white house on this. >> the white house reportedly held high-level talks you this morning that involve department secretaries, they were weighing litigation options to try to keep the republican governors from busing and flying these migrants to democrat run cities and states and sexually cities and states according to acxiom's and apparently the tipping point became the latest shipment of migrants that were flown to martha's vineyard and dropped off there yesterday, the president sounded off about all this on site.

>> we are committed to fixing the immigration system, instead of working with us on solutions republicans are playing politics with human beings using them as props, what they're doing is simply wrong is un-american, it's reckless. >> according to nbc an internal division of how the administration should respond, dhs officials have openly expressed frustration at the meeting with the white house reluctance to take a page from the book of republican governors and begin transporting migrants to cities within the u.s. according to internal obtained by nbc news. the second we gentlemen reacting to the guba migrants reacting to the vice president's house yesterday. >> i think it was shameful, these are human beings, these are people, they needed to be treated with dignity and kindness and respect and they weren't, they are using people as ponds for political stunt. >> the white house takes no blame for the record numbers of

migrants that even crossing into this country under the president's watch, they continue to blame the trump administration for what we're seeing right now, they also will not tell migrants to stop coming here illegally saying that credit communication comes from homeland security secretary mayorkas and they've echoed the vice president claim that the border is secure. neil: jackie, thinking for that, i want to go to joe, the rio grande city texas mayor kind enough to join us, mayor went to get boys enjoyed about talking to you, you're not trying to play party politics with us and you concerned about with what texas is dealing with and maybe a little surprise that there are those in other cities and states that are just coming to discover that what do you think of the back-and-forth on all the. >> it's so ironic just yesterday i read a proclamation in

celebration of hispanic heritage month highlighting the significant contributions by hispanics throughout american history that helped force the united states of america, the greatest country in the world and yet hispanics are being utilized as political ponds and prorated in a dog and pony show that unfortunately is there for the rest of the world to bear witness for what purpose, supposedly to highlight our broken immigration system. americans are fully aware that we have a broken immigration system and we had this for over 30 years, seven decades, unfortunately we lack leaders of both parties who are willing to grab the bull by the horns and address a broken immigration system. i'm talking about both parties neither party has delivered comprehensive immigration reform

or adjuster broken immigration system and over 30 plus years for decades, unfortunately yet democrats, republicans engaged in asinine political that does to address the issue. neil: i definitely see where you're coming from, i do find it a little odd those who were aghast with the buses and planes or depending on martha's vineyard or the nation's capital or what have you, i didn't see the same concern for what you and the fellow mayors and public officials in texas have been going through for all these decades. where was that concern for the flight of migrants whether they were on a bus or plane or stuck in texas being processed. >> that's the point we don't have an ashley courtney did effort to address it. if you get a bus individual to make sure the receiving end is aware some people are provided as far as their accommodation.

>> this principle another issue. >> when isis had planes all over the country, dozens of them during the biden administration in the prior administration before that, often times the community especially the middle of the night was never given a heads-up that would seem to be a good procedure going forward, i can't tell you the number of mayors that i talked to who were caught off guard spinnaker said this before no mayor and governor in america should bear the burden for the broken immigration system without the federal financial resources that are necessary to better manage the flows. unfortunately both parties are stock in these asinine political stunt. i called them stands at the end of the day whether the concrete solutions to address this. yes right now you have democrats that are in control and they need to address it just like before when you have republicans in full control but neither

party has adjuster, that's the whole. >> as a mayor of texas could they use more financial help, seems like the resources are strapped. >> absolutely. the federal government provide that but it doesn't, what is the deal with that. >> he goes back to why, is it really that difficult to sit down and have a conversation with the governor and the president sits down and have a conversation, is it really that difficult to do. what is it -- apparently it is but why, why is it so difficult put your pride aside whoever be the bigger person sit down and call the others and have a conversation. unfortunately were playing politics for furthering their political agendas which is unfortunate because the rest of america all of us americans are stuck with this issue and it is an issue for the rest of the world to bear witness and unfortunately we americans are stuck with the bill. especially at the backs of her

own taxpayer as well. we stuck with the situation, it doesn't have to be this way we deal with sit down, have a conversation and i ask you that why is it so difficult, is it really that difficult to sit down and have a conversation, these are elected officials that are here to direct america. neil: thank you very much for taking the time. the rio grande city, texas mayor we do have some good news to share with you coming up after the break. a lot of workers under a lot of pressure with higher prices i want you to meet the guy who runs the hard rock hotel and just invested $100 million and a lot of those workers getting big raises because he felt it was time. that's next.

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neil: read this but you will or how you want to read into it if you do, the overwhelming odds that the federal reserve according to market consensus will see another three-quarter point hike in the lending rate known as federal funds next week which would bring us to 3 - 3 and 8% level but there is apparently a 70% chance building it hike that will presumably build us to 4% by the end of the year on fed funds that does not rule out interim meeting hikes, all these hikes we've seen this year have been every six week meetings that we seen in the federal reserve policymakers but maintaining that pace which in

the case of the november bet would be the three quarters hike in the federal reserve back to back to back to back would have fed funds at around 4% had we start the year at %. all of that to address inflation, very little you can do about rising cost if you are a ceo trying to keep them under control and you can help your work is not doing what my next guest did we don't see a lot of this a hard rock ceo investing $100 million to boost the pay for hotel and casino workers. most of them in 12-dollar going up to $18 an hour range that would affect half the workers eligible for this increase. the guy behind the jim allen the hard rock ceo with us now. neil: a very generous jester, it's an expensive commitment, why did you do? >> first of all thank you for having us. the main reason we wanted to thank our employees are business

friendly has been doing very well this year, there is definitely tension in the labor force but when we look at the hourly rates in the cost of living in all the additional expenditures that they are incurring i just don't compel to really thank them and that we care about them as individuals and candidly the one way to do that is obviously enhancing compensation. i think it's important to note that these reasons were not given to management they were not given to exempt employees it was all wine employees must 100 different job classifications. neil: i noticed a look include housekeepers, front desk employees, security workers, more than half of your 20000 workforce locally. this is everyone across the earth, right? >> no we have a little over 50000 employees globally this is the united states a little bit in western europe where we have

37000 employees total. neil: i misspoke let me get a sense of where you see the hotel business i know you just open one not too far for me in midtown manhattan, it went up in record time we are also seeing a number of hotels, half a dozen in the midtown manhattan area we see a lot of hotel building around the world renewed activity in vegas this was after covid were a lot of these hotels floundering many closer doors give me a sense of the landscape right now. >> surveyor hotel is doing extremely well we probably have another 35 - 40 hotels under contract expanding as we speak. another 90 plus deals in the pipeline. the integrated resort, that is where a lot of our profit comes from that is also a sector that is doing very well specifically pending approval of the nevada

gaming commission in the purchase of the mirage we will have close to $4 billion in capital and once it's completely renovated and expanded. neil: we will keep an eye on it, thank you very much, i'm sure that's very good and welcome news to your workers, best of luck to you jim allen is the hard rock ceo with good news ahead of the holiday season, that is the stuff that you want to hear. as much as wages go up so to the prices, everything that you pay with the wages. we will keep an eye on that and whether it is affecting how people go about and buy things if they buy things at all, i mentioned that today is the first day we get a chance to scoop up one of the new apple iphones, the 14 models, we are told that business is brisk, that is the company stock, not so much. after this. ♪

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neil: today is the first day americans to get their hot little hands on the new iphone four teens that are out today. you can see the long lines certainly in new york city this is playing out across the country and the world by extension, susan li followed with these developments from the big apple. >> lots of hot little hands outside of apple fifth avenue which attracts more people than the statue of liberty each and every year, so far look at the lineups here's the economic consumer high inflation despite slowing growth, we see a steady lineup of obsessive apple fans that are been on here try to be the first to get their hands on the new iphone 14, also the new wearables watches and air pods.

also in attendance apple ceo tim cook open up the iconic store as we have many fans lining up since last night trying to be the first, it's interesting three out of the four iphones 14 have shifted but this is the longest leadtime we've had for the promax which indicates strong demand and there might be some clause in the supply chain. we asked some of these fans why they went overnight, why they wanted to line up to be the first to get their hands on the new iphones. >> if you don't buy anything now in the inflation keeps on going you never get it. >> i'm an apple family i on one of every iphone it's a really valid for money to pay for what you get. >> you are paying a lot and we know to morgan stanley, j.p. morgan orders have been stronger-than-expected 80 to 90% have been at the promax lines and the top of the end higher end pros but prices have not gotten from last year and you

still get the telco subsidies of $800 per phone. neil: it is wild i never see this with the ceo, maybe go back to the days a bigger than life figure people wanted his autograph all the fuss over tim cook being here it was like he was a rock star. >> that's kind of the scene everywhere you go been to many stores with him now across the country and usually is always the southeast people without their iphones and they can get their photo with the ceo. neil: the story, they sell you and tim cook, get out of the way it soothingly. >> i'm sure. >> great job thank you very much, garrett call pond on all of this, if you want to get into the issues of the stock that is a lot of people waiting in a long line to pay with the promax thousand dollar plus models, that is forking over a lot of

cash, what do you think of that? >> when the iphone five came out i said no way they can do is six and a seven and eight and then i said no way they can raise prices above 1000 and then they did so apple is its own ecosystem, they created their own economy and people love it and addicted to it and i will tell you i don't need another one i'm pretty sure i will soon, that's how it goes with apple, they created what is the greatest brand names in the history of time. neil: you think about it, anytime over the year it could be apple or another product customers are keen on during recession or not recession times at all they prioritize, this is for a lot of folks, they think it's well worth it, retail sales in general now holding up but with the three tens of 8% increase it does say that there is some consumer demand that they're not buying at the pace with the level they used to but they are still buying, what you

make with a consumers mindset is now. >> the consumer throughout the year has been able to stay on the strong side, but you have to look under the surface, savings rates are plunging in credit card usage is skyrocketing. you added the reverse wealth effect which has me worried not only stock market the bond markets by housing, i'm seeing a lot of down arrows when i go on all these websites throughout florida, people lowering prices and if that continues to feed on itself that will add to it. i'm worried about the consumer going forward and if that 70% of the economy, that's a worry about the economy. neil: were learning apple, we said we would get to this is the most shorted stock around, of course tesla used to be the most shorted stock i reverb a time with microsoft in its early days was heavily shorted stock

nothing like the levels and the intent to this kind of stuff gets no, what do you want to make of that. >> in size they are the baggage onto biggest but percentage not close there may be a lot of hedging going on in the bull market that could feed on itself as short-acting cover. were in a bear market for stocks apple has held up like a trooper, i think it's entering its own bear market and that's getaway on the nasdaq and the nasdaq 100 big time so i don't think it will make too much of a debt if i start seeing 32 billion shares that will start talking right now which is one day of training short and seriously on the shorting front. i've seen companies with seven, eight, nine tenths of volume traded shortage and that's really where you get the short squeezes. neil: real quickly, your thought is i inflection point of transportation average which is been slipsliding away down

within 8% this month, it continues to go down a lot of people subscribe to the dow theory as a lot of airline, railroad, trucking, carbon concerns go, so go the economy that is not a good sign where are you on this? >> it's a terrible sign one thing the ceo said things worsened into the into the quarter which was in the bogus quarter. neil: were talking about fedex questioning. >> fedex yes, they missed by miles, this is a company that is a pretty darn good with guidance understand their weaknesses worldwide not just a couple places 92 billion in revenue company that moves just about everything i'm pretty sure a lot of analysts are looking at what part of the everything is the shortfalls and i think is the a lot of earnings guidance come down in a lot of areas like target missed by miles earning

guidance started coming down i think we may have another brand going forward and i think is to the market reacting to that i think there will be plenty more to come unfortunately. neil: aren't you the bearer of great news, gary love you just the same, thank you very much, getting a lot of e-mails on the introduction to the first people get their hands on this apple iphone 14, it is not cheap and the big demand is for the pricing models, the pro, the pro x and if you are diane, she says neil why do you think the crowds were there to see susan li, they were there to see tim cook the next thing you'll be saying the crowd saw a fox camera and are there to see you. >> while there were there to see me, i don't want to talk about diane. we'll have more after this. ♪

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neighborhoods in washington, d.c., boutique shops, some storeowners some stores aren't even opening doors during business hours, one store got knocked off $100,000 with of lenses stolen, many of the storeowners who have been robberies did not want to talk to us on camera we did find one store owner who talked about the problem. in the glass shop so the giver troubles, they could do anything they want. >> car jacket is up 75% the nations capital murder is up on top of twenty-year high year ago. many residents throughout the city are scared including on h street and northeast washington is supposed to be a revitalized area also were washington

commanders running back brian robinson was shot in late august he's on the field practicing the entry despite being shot twice in the leg. many residents are very nervous about the spike in crime. >> people have nothing to do they don't want to get jobs these days so they stand around the quarter and cause problems. >> you think crime is getting worse? >> i just moved here somebody is getting shot and robbed every day. >> you hear about something every day. >> despite high-end restaurants, apartments and a whole foods being built on h street northeast some people say it doesn't even matter. >> i bit into syria since the 80s, crime has always been here it's last but it's not going to change they will be here regardless no matter how much it changes it's still going to happen. >> police officer spoken to set

the doing all they can, cops are making arrest they blame the course and they say these criminals are back on the streets a day later. neil: thank you for that, lucas tomlinson. it's even happening in chicago and thus encourage the wrath the ceo of mcdonald's trying to recruit people to chicago, take a look at this. >> everywhere i go i'm confronted by the same question these days, what's going on in chicago there is a general sense out there that our city is in crisis. the truth is it's more difficult today for me to convince a promising mcdonald's executive to relocate to chicago from whatever their office that was a few years ago. neil: i want to go to do reacted on donald trump's former criminal justice reform deputy what he makes of this jerome smith, very good to have you. it is out of control that's an understatement. he changes the behavior and the

expansion plans and employment plans of the ceo of a mcdonald's, you've got to wonder the spillover what is going to be. >> honestly public safety is at the heart of any type of revitalization for any community. this issue in chicago has gone on for a number of years when i was in the trump administration is something that we tried to work with the mayor on and was not successful because the mayor did not want to partner with us. however, i've started a coalition to deal with these issues against violent crime, there is evidence-based work that can be done to solve for these issues. >> like what it would be news to a lot of these mayors that here it. >> one the first principle is fun the police. there is a whole movement two years ago about defunding the police and that contributed to the rise of violent crime, number two we need to have the police focus on crime prevention and waves to solve for violent

crime. we also need to have the police focus on evidence based policies that reduce violent crime. lastly, forget it do policy reform and needs to be smart on crime policy like the first step act that's focus on public safety. the first step act reduce recidivism in the federal prison and that allow for the police to focus on violent crime. >> what i noticed in you the expert i'm certainly not, the ceiling were certain local officials you see the sporadically in california and elsewhere, they will not bother with petty crime or someone stealing up to $2000 worth of goods and if somebody is knifing someone, i'm simple fine but that is the problem. as soon as you tolerate a certain level of crime it is no surprise the magnitude of crime increases.

>> that's exactly right we always have to have accountability to individuals that commit crime. when we were in the trump administration we focused on nonviolent crime and fairness. he always had to do with accountability and these type of laws serve as a magnet for criminals to create more crime. that is not what we want to do and places like dallas you've actually seem violent crime shrink because they use evidence-based policy such as focus deteriorates to change the way public safety is done there and it's worked. these type of strategies work, more localities need to lean and it's important for the communities. neil: to have people quitting police forces, forget about adding, they've had it that is a serious crime. >> the problem before the george floyd death, there were many police committing suicide, having mental health issues. that's why in the trump administration we focused on the mental health of those police

officers but recruitment has always been a challenge but in the wake of george floyd it's even harder to recruit to be a police officer pre-that's why we fund the police and focus on evidence-based research that protect public safety. >> well put, thank you very much, thank you for your service to the country trying to deal with this long before he got involved, jerome smith following those subelements were down to 336 points fedex is among those issues getting banged around, again it's one thing when the world bank says were heading into a recession, it's another when fedex says it's already here and it's going to be a doozy, not only here but across the world, that stock down more than 20% transportation average sliding even more after this. ♪

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at fidelity, your dedicated advisor will work with you on a comprehensive wealth plan across your full financial picture. a plan with tax-smart investing strategies designed to help you keep more of what you earn. this is the planning effect. neil: that has a beat to it but this market is getting beaten down and not getting better. the dow jones industrials, 310 points in this had to do with fedex. it's one thing when the borough world bank says this but another when fedex, pretty good at gauging demand and saying the same thing for next year, that