tv Cavuto Coast to Coast FOX Business September 16, 2022 1:00pm-2:00pm EDT
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at fidelity, your dedicated advisor will work with you on a comprehensive wealth plan across your full financial picture. a plan with tax-smart investing strategies designed to help you keep more of what you earn. this is the planning effect. neil: that has a beat to it but this market is getting beaten down and not getting better. the dow jones industrials, 310 points in this had to do with fedex. it's one thing when the borough world bank says this but another when fedex, pretty good at gauging demand and saying the same thing for next year, that stock hit and hit hard.
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transportation stocks get hit very hard. for dow theorists, transport stocks and the rest of the market, you don't like what you are seeing but you will like lauren simonetti's perspective. even on awful day, she has a congenial manner and will tell you to put down the razor blade. lauren: put down the razor blade, it is okay? this is ugly today. this fedex warning is the icing on the cake of a terrible week so we know the economy is slowing down because we feel that inflation is red-hot and you see your paycheck just doesn't go as far. inflation tops 8%, even if you got a raise, 5%, there's a big difference between that and now we see our investments, 401(k)s
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are not holding up either. look at the market performance, dow is up 5%, the s&p is down 5% and the nasdaq is up 6%. tech future profit hit by marching interest rates. let's look at rates. the one year, 4% for the first time in 15 years and the 2-year is not far behind and you take shares of that, microsoft, amazon, alphabet. each of them are down 8% this week and you have fedex. the ceo says a worldwide recession is coming. fedex is a reflection of everyone else's business. i have been hearing a lot of things. is this a fedex problem. a company specific problem? or is it indication how the overall economy is doing? this set the stage for the next catalyst, the next downside catalyst, that earnings might
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parallel what fedex did for other companies. all of this is happening as the fed is coveted typing rates, keeping them there until inflation cools down. deutsche bank's call, the fed funds rate needs to get to 4.9% by the first quarter of next year. we got a long way to go. inflation is double that. neil: you did nothing but cheer me up. lauren: this is friday. i like your new glasses. they are new? i'm just noticing them. neil: it doesn't matter, you depress the hell out of me. lauren: he should put a green tie on. it is your fault. neil: you are so good. thank you for that. how are you feeling now? we've got long lines all over the country, fancy new phones. obviously people are buying. they pick and choose what they want to buy and we are getting into that but the fact of the
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matter is a lot of people are nervous ahead of the holiday shopping season. we are one hundred days away from christmas. if you haven't got any presents don't worry. to madison allworth. >> reporter: 100 days to christmas, exciting stuff, good news we can think about the holiday upcoming. when you talk about holidays, the shelves were empty. we talk about shipping, at the port of newark behind me, typically this is when we get the holiday inventory off of these ships but to avoid the problems we saw last year retailers started standing there stuff much earlier. >> in the early summer for the holiday, right now, 20 ships waiting to birth in newark port. i would say it is a better system.
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the only issues where the labor concerns, railroads, would have been catastrophic again. >> reporter: we avoided that problem so good news. freight strength depends on china which is always at risk of a lockdown whether the 0 covid policy but now things are moving slowly, supply chains looking healthier than we have seen in the last few months, the problem in this holiday season, seems like it is demand with demand falling, got to bring in fedex as we were talking about, missed on earnings, they say demand for shipping is drying up, the shipping giant freezing hiring, grounding planes as inflation hammers america. when you think about shopping for the holiday season inflation is top of mind. it already is. to deal with it, 41% of shoppers say they will seek out discounts, 27% are already shopping to spread out their spend and try to get deals now. even with these deals there's
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only so much that americans can do. 21% are going to be paying off credit cards over time. in order to put gifts under the tree this year. there is some good news on top of this when it comes to shopping, because the excess of inventory we are seeing deals early because of the glut that retailers are trying to get rid of but the fedex question and the inflation question, how much americans are going to buy will be the question this year compared to last year when we couldn't get enough stuff in. neil: thank you. if hickory farms says its business is tumbling, game over. we have two geniuses, lucky to have him. bottom line, you have worldwide concerns saying shipping is for a long time. that's not good. >> it's not good.
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every level the indicators are saying demand may be coming down. why does that surprise everybody when all our policies are being driven to tamper down demand? however, i believe this is a supply-side driven inflationary period. what are we doing about that? if we have problems with shipping, i guess it is good we averted a rail strike this week but that could really cause a lot of pain if we can't get supply. neil: talking that our transportation average, almost every major airplane see strong demand through the holiday season. they might have to adjust that and like 70 companies ratchet down their guidance. i wonder how you see it? >> i look at the fedex story,
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two pieces of business, the consumer side of business, and on the airlines, they are fine for the consumer remain strong, going into the future because they saw how expensive things were during the inflation. the first lever companies pool when concerned about earnings. and if we learned nothing the last two years, what we do in person. and from a corporate spend perspective, and -- neil: they are starting to. >> a 3 day onboarding event, it is productive. neil: this was a business thing. >> we will have to get to the bottom of that when he lands at fourth worth.
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those things were dead in the water for two years so meetings not just retreats and boondoggles, you see more meetings, more face-to-face with customers and if they start cutting back, back to fedex, in the green room, selling their house in florida and every document we saw, documents that in a million years you wouldn't have to go to so we've gotten to the port where these businesses have head winds when contraction starts to happen. neil: i don't want to be the naïve optimist. down to the leisure suits. it is not like that at all. we still have job gains. we might have they reversed but we are a long way from that and look at these long lines just uptown outside apple, that is
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something that might be a priority purchase for some who will gladly pay a lot for something they crucially need and with retail sales people still buying. i don't know if i subscribe to housing heading into a meltdown, i can see a slowdown. the consumer is closing the wallet, never opening it for months to come. i don't see it. >> the consumer is spending so the question becomes why and how? they have access at least to this point to debt because debt is rising across the country. and in the last quarter, $46 billion increase in credit card debt in this country so people aren't afraid of debt. do they not think there's going to be any consequences? neil: what about covid? have we blown that?
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>> people are saying after covid i want to live a little bit so i can put more on the credit card, maybe it will get forgiven. neil: it is more political. may be because of the selloff. to you by that? >> it is possible. the policy failures of this administration, that republicans would be good for the market, to get their arms around inflation better than the administration is. so many unknowns, going into a cold winter, you looked at your utility bill for the month of july, they are ridiculous. we haven't felt the ripple effects of inflation through
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the economy, the cpi report suggests to me the cost of energy is embedded in everything. the energy costs are embedded in everything and a lot of vulnerabilities. neil: we are in a city that i wouldn't say is thriving but not doing poorly, rents are rocketing, real estate rocking, condo on the market, the high-rise goes for $250 million. if we get that. >> are we betting against each other? neil: what do you make of that? that doesn't happen in recession? >> that seems to be what is so confusing, we go back, people are still spending money but there's a lot of haves and have nots. they haves are spending, the have nots are borrowing. we are seeing demand out there. of course the fed is doing
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everything they can to take that down but they are going in the wrong direction. neil: got a chance to talk to you at the same time, extra cases next week, some say awful percentage point. 70% betting in november. ike where you on this. >> i don't think the fed wants to forget the markets too much. and don't want to do that. and thereafter i think the economy, more gdp numbers. they have to figure out if it is helping or hurting. >> they are on a path of death by a thousand cuts. 75 basis points, this go around and the next. to me there is no soft landing here and every session is guaranteed.
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neil: the same concern for what un telomeres and officials in texas are going through for all these decades. where was the concern for the plight of migrants whether they were on bus or plane or being processed? >> we don't have a nationally coordinated effort. you will bust individuals, make sure the receiving end is aware, people are provided for as far as accommodation. neil: no rest for the weary. texas governor abbott and ron
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desantis targeted by the administration for creating much ado about nothing. when it comes to florida's governor wants that for some of these stunts as he calls them that florida governor has waged flying over migrants not even from florida but texas to martha's vineyard. enter francis warez, mayor of miami. you've seen the kind of reaction this is getting from the administration and democrats nationwide, these are all stunts. what do you say? >> immigration is a problem that is befuddled a variety of administrations. obviously creating essentially a national crisis that is not just a border crisis as a crisis throughout the country and time for us to solve this
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problem as our mayor, we don't have the luxury of getting into partisan squabbles over these issues, just to solve a issue. it is an economic issue, national security issue. neil: you espoused this for a long time. i grant you, and parties work together. democrats complaining about what texas is doing, and states like yours but texas and arizona. this newfound rage is a little odd. just as odd, that people in the middle of the night, and said nothing about dozens of such planes landing in the middle of the night. they are fine with that.
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it is what it is so where does it go? >> it is tremendous hypocrisy. they all don't cover purported 70 planes that flew into jacksonville, it doesn't get any coverage. the fact illegal immigration has skyrocketed under the current administration creating a humanitarian crisis not just in border cities but throughout the country, they don't offer any solutions, this current administration and don't talk about the fact that there's an incoherent hemisphere policy towards countries in latin america and south america creating a lot of desire for people to migrate into the united states. there is no coherent policy and it is exacerbating a problem we've had for a long time.
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neil: i was reading in the miami herald or the palm beach post, citing a number of latinos who do not like the way governor desantis handled the martha's vineyard issue. that might be an exaggeration to say they reflect all latinos everywhere but as a prominent figure in that community, do you worry about the unintentional message the governor is sending? >> i worry a little bit about it because those particular migrants who are not coming from the southern border as mexicans are, potentially economic freedom but freeing a political persecution like the cubans. estate like florida which has become more red, more republicans than democrats.
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that is often what decides state races. that the concern. the governor has 2 way those things. neil: george will among your many fans saying you would speak to the future of the direction of the party. i am paraphrasing, you check the boxes so even though florida has a number of potential presidential aspirants have you kicked that? >> i think it is flattering someone like george orwell would say that. i think there is a time for national discussion changing from one generation to another. the other thing contextualized in the context of immigration we didn't talk about is hispanics -- there was a new york times poll recently that showed a majority of hispanics
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are republican and so i think whoever becomes the next leader of this country needs to be able to connect with republicans, with hispanics for republicans to maintain a majority for a generation. that is a strategic imperative. it could be extremely helpful in the immigration debate because there is a political fear that by creating a legalization you are in effect serving a variety of votes to the other party and that is an interesting dynamic to be discussed going forward but is flattering, anytime someone speaks, you speak about being born in this country, parents who fled castro's communism, incredibly fortunate, one of america's greatest success stories and we have a recipe for success that has been proven and scaled nationally.
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neil: you are 2 generations below. have we had too many old presidents? >> without a doubt. when you think of this country and leadership throughout the world it is gone significantly younger. you think about dynamic challenges, the forefront of disruption, and a generational phenomenon that you have to understand to compete, to be competitive for generation and the likes of china, we have to know what the landscape looks like. neil: i have ties as a matter
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♪ if you're living with moderate to severe ulcerative colitis, ask your doctor about once-daily zeposia. neil: rates rising, stock falling, inflation fears building and next week the federal reserve could sail with another 3 quarter of a point hike but we are seeing it play out in the mortgage unit as well picking up steam there. jackie deangelis. >> reporter: absolutely right. interest rates on the rise ahead of the federal reserve's highly anticipated september meeting next week. according to freddie mac the rate of a 30 year mortgage is
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now up to 6. 02%. %. this time last year that rate was 2.86%, a difference of 3%. new data shows median mortgages, payments up 66% from a year ago and today's rate and this is having an impact on home prices as more serious sellers realize unloading a home in this market means adjusting price expectations. for 2020 and 2022 you have low mortgage rates, historically low, inventories that were low, demand that was very high, prices 30% but now with higher rating plays a low is forecasting over the next 3 months, home prices will fall 552 markets. the market in general is slowing, the housing market, on a year-over-year basis, existing home sales are down 20. 2%, 29. 6% respectively. stock market volatility we have
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seen, risk recession, persistently high inflation buyers are pulling back because they are worried about committing to big-ticket purchases and rising rates have forced some of them like first-time buyers to drop out of the market because they can't afford it. that's the big question, it will depend on how aggressive the fed decides to be with rates in the next few months, it will depend on labor market conditions, the supply chain, some of the issues impacting inventories as well. on rates we might have seen nothing yet. in 1981, mortgage rates spiked 18% as the fed battle high inflation, many hoping the situation this time will not be as extreme. back to you. neil: did i tell you what my wife and i paid? 15 tons. 13. 5%. thank you very much. by the way, there is this bifurcation going on, big word i just learned coming in the
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real estate market. a property up for sale in the new, huge penthouse in new york, $250 million spanning 70,500 feet, has 1430 feet outdoor terrace, its own private ballroom, charlie gasparino put in a bid. he is coming up momentarily. pierre could afford one of these things but here, someone is going to buy that. i don't go for the 250 million but i know quite a few apartments in that building have gone 50, 60, 70, $80 million so that group is not short on cash, don't know how they are paying for this. whether they are financing it, stock holdings could have dropped. what do you make of that?
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>> my firm represent a number of people who purchased that building it for 10 years 57th st. has been transformed to billionaires row, and let's be honest, somebody spending anywhere remotely that much money isn't worried about interest rates and not going to apply a traditional lender to get a mortgage to acquire that property so that is when you see these transitions in the market happen. it will show how interest rate changes are impacting lower income households. the rich grow richer in times like this. neil: this building will be all spoken for. i don't know what that price -- bottom line we are seeing a lot of activity. even in these rich areas, idaho is a hot market for a lot of people, the real estate market slowing, some parts of florida have not seen the momentum that they were. where do you see real estate in
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general? >> separate new york from the rest of the country, manhattan especially attracts the global wealth of every billionaire around the world. we are in a bubble here in our market. i think the nation's housing market is going to encounter significant slowdown we've been seeing. we talked about this a number of times this year. the rapid price appreciation is slow. we haven't seen a huge decline in pricing in the next year. neil: not an individual crash like we had during the meltdown. >> not remotely close. i will tell you. the main reason no matter what you think of the housing market and impact on values the biggest issue is lack of supply. we are not creating inventory and the fed can raise rates.
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neil: some inventory has, the interested buyers are off of that. >> generally in terms of the entire housing market there is lack of supply, certain markets are outliers in that statement but at the end of the day how do we create the supply when jackie talked about labor so shortages and supply-chain issues until all this is addressed, housing stock is created we won't be in the situation where you will see significant decline in prices. neil: this idea that with every uptick in mortgage rates, whatever the figure is, 50,000 americans priced out, if that were to keep going and we keep seeing mortgage rates double over the last year there has to be a point, are we at that point? >> i think you are there and we've seen it and that is where i'm talking about slowdown in
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activity, everybody is in a wait to see when how this will impact the correction and is it? frankly you are talking right now, a great stat this morning. 33% of home purchases were cast purchases. who is suffering? as a result of that in terms of competition, your entry-level buyer and low income buyers. that was the upsetting part of this. the rapid hike in interest rates is absurd. we result in monthly mortgage payments, something astronomical. you have the cash to buy it you are stuck on the sidelines and what is the trend for the next several years unless this rapid increase in rates is managed. neil: thank you very much.
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the real estate market, right about a lot of stuff he just outlined. rushing back from that atmosphere. how does it look? charles: i'm going to invite you for a swim. skinny-dipping. charles: neil: that is ridiculous. charles: i agree with some of the stuff your guests say, he's an expert and a salesman. the interesting thing is if you go to certain markets you have to look at markets that got hot in the pandemic and post pandemic and these are many markets in the south. we are not talking detroit or des moines, iowa. we are talking charleston, south carolina, asheville, north carolina, miami, up north in florida, incredibly hot markets and people were just
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running down there and buying stuff and then there was building. i think these markets right now are where you are seeing supply starting to pick up. neil: you are not as sanguine as he is. charles: depends on the market. he's right about new york. and outlier, an international city, people buy stuff all the time. we have real estate corrections, donald trump famously almost -- bankrupt in the 1990s in the stock market crash. it is not totally but you got to look at the hot markets and the hot markets did do building, they are having inventory. neil: you see a crash. charles: part of that crash was the leverage that was involved in buying houses. don't know if we have that leverage for loan payments and all that weird stuff.
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if you make 30 grand and horrible standards, we don't have people who make $50,000 a year buying $500,000 homes on a mortgage. neil: a lot of that craziness, other news, on the side, i do want to get back to you sometime. charles: you don't want to hear this? neil: right back. just seeing that triplex.
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the chinese leader's concern what is going on in ukraine, what to make of that. where this unique alliance goes from here. what do you think? >> there may be less than meets the eye. to be concerned about the first war in europe since world war ii, maybe concern, china benefits significantly from the reorientation of energy markets, the potential to get russian gas and oil for less than normal market price, to reorient russian natural gas from europe toward china which gets them out of a strategic point where gas and oil is coming through from singapore. it is more secure in the event of conflict with the us.
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neil: the last count was 3500 mi. in ukraine under russian control and ukrainian control and the counter campaign on the part of the russians hitting close to these nuclear facilities sounds like it could get ugly. >> the fog of war, who knows how successful a counterattack is going, the counter counterattack by russia. everyone lies about everything in war. we have to wait and see. a question of where does it lead? some people in washington would love to see ukraine which is backed by the united states and nato back to the russian border, russia sees that as a proxy american army coming up on its borders raising the specter of nuclear war. will be an interesting winner for sure. neil: how long do you see this drawing on?
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where are you on this? >> it goes on a long time. for the first time you and i both sides have an incentive to talk. before russia didn't have a big incentive because they were slowly eroding and why talk if you're winning but now that both sides of been demonstrating to each other you can win some or lose some there's an incentive to cut a deal. i understand ukraine, no one wants to get away territory but there's an argument to dispense with the parts of ukraine that are very ethnically russian, russian speaking of that are unlikely to see themselves the same way ukrainians in the center in the west of the country do. and took a deal with russia to end the killing. london thinks this is a great opportunity to be leave russia and who cares how many 18 or 19-year-olds die, so this goes on for months. neil: it is good, and governor
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chris sununu talking about what should be a clear victory for republican nomination. it is the same for the democrats. after this. ♪ ♪ another busy day? of course - you're a cio in 2022. but you're ready. because you've got the next generation in global secure networking from comcast business. with fully integrated security solutions all in one place. so you're covered.
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neil: you are probably sick of all these polls, what is on voters minds. in new hampshire we will get to that in a second but most americans when polled on the biggest issue, inflation, the economy, not surprisingly but a close second, this emerged in the last few months since the supreme court decision reversing roe versus wade, abortion is a big issue. the democratic nominee for governor, tom sherman from new hampshire, state senate member. good to have you. >> thanks for inviting me. neil: your opponent, the
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incumbent governor going for 1/4 golf it in the governor's mansion opted out of the senate run it, what do you make of where the race stands now? he keeps pounding president biden's economy and inflation, the last thing we want and i know you want to reflect those views, the last thing you say. >> the whole reason i am running is i don't have a political career per se. i'm just a doctor. the whole reason i'm running is to really, i see issues in the state of new hampshire that can be fixed, that can be addressed so i'm laser focused on 2,022, focused on the people of new hampshire, ics going the wrong direction under sununu. he put in place the first abortion ban in modern history. we have an economy that makes it hard for many people to make
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it through their monthly bills. neil: do you find some people are going past the governor for the economy and blaming the president? even this big white house event a couple days ago seemed to show he is unaware of the reality of that and it is hurting guys like you? >> i find the opposite. what is really hitting people directly right now over the last two months is electric rates, the highest in the country, almost double what they were in july. neil: they have gone up everywhere. >> more here. we have among the highest rates in the country and the issue is three years ago sununu vetoed a dozen bills almost all of which were bipartisan that would have given us more energy options. look at our neighboring states,
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massachusetts, they are not seeing the hikes we are because sununu left us nearly completely dependent on natural gas and when you do that, and oil for heating, when you do that. when you don't think about how do we expand energy options at a time when we are getting hit by inflation people are seeing doubling of electric rates. neil: tripling in california, more than doubled in new york and maybe in your neck of the woods, a different story but i would be curious, the attack line the governor used to attach him to you. what he want the president to campaign? >> i don't need the president to campaign for me. i have all the support i need in the state of new hampshire. the issues are clear. it is really about when i go back and forth across the state, the people of new
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hampshire. that is who i connect with. i always won in a republican district. i'm not worried about whether people are republican, independent or democrats. i care about what is going on with them in their day-to-day lives, monthly bills and how they will get through the winter and that is the focus that i have on new hampshire. neil: if the president at the white house says i will help you out? >> i would say you're welcome to come if you want to but the most important message i get out to people is really i am here for them. i don't feel like i need that kind of national help because it is not a national thing in new hampshire. this is a local election all about what is happening. neil: we will follow closely. tom sherman, more after this.
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love and confidence... you can't buy those. but you can invest in them. we believe that your investments should work harder for the future you imagine. and that's where our strategic investing approach can help. t. rowe price. invest with confidence. neil: here is charles. charles? charles: neil, thank you very much, my friend. good afternoon, everyone. this is charles payne and this is "making money." breaking right now, fedex making all investors feel like castaway s. is there any hope, or are we stranded on an island of despair and is the market down because you, i'm talking directly to you , because you won't sell. are you a jinx? i know it feels that way. today, very important ways that you can manage through the difficult ways ahead with some of the very best on wall street. and is powell making another mistake, folks? this time, talking too tough. the tough guy routine from
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