people are full partisan in their ignorance is on display for the world to see. this is what we come to expect from our betters in the media. gerry: my great thanks to kristin tate and christopher bedford. will be next week more commentary interviews on the "wal >> "barron's roundtable" sponsored by global x etfs. jack: welcome to "barron's roundtable". coming up, ukraine is taking back territory amid no evidence of russian war crimes. ian bremmer on what to expect next from putin, the outlook for oil and trump's impact on the upcoming midterm elections.

advertising is coming to netflix and disney, who to stands to benefit and what the change means for the streaming industry. we begin with three things investors ought to be thinking about right now. a surprisingly hot meeting on consumer prices led to the biggest market selloff and two years, could the fed try to tame inflation with a full percentage point rate hike next week? another aggressive rate increase could affect high-growth tech stocks, already cooling housing market and bosses expect workers to get back to the office but the action in office reits is telling a different story. my colleagues been levisohn, carleton glitch and jack hough, great to have you back together. you have been skeptical of this market rallied all summer long. this week the market suggested ben was right. it also didn't bode well, the signals they were sending. >> we came into this week, the market was feeling pretty good.

nice little streak going. then it turned into the week from hell. fedex came out and announced this terrible guidance, their guidance was awful and not only did fedex go down but pepsi went down, shopify went down. you could say how long -- "barron's roundtable" they are going to bleep that. ben: hard to imagine a stronger recession signal from that. the yield curve has been there for a while now but the dow transport theory says when goods transport, stocks go down suggest in bed news. ben: we are seeing weakness in industrial surveys, from fedex and other companies, chemical companies have been talking about. we are seeing it pretty much everywhere except where fed would like to see it which is

the job market but talking about rates going as high as 4%, perhaps as high as 5% and when they get high i don't think the market could drop 20% or so. that's not enough for a full recession which is a 30% drop. jack: obviously we are seeing it in high tech stocks that did so well over a decade of using money. they are getting clobbered. carleton: it is certain the fed will lift rates by 75 basis points. what is interesting is there is talk of a full one point hike which would be historic for markets. what we see happening with markets, tech looks favorable in a high rate environment because investors don't pay high multiples. companies are facing higher credit costs and what you need to look at is the year to date chart versus the pure dow funds.

right now at least value is very one. jack: if you're trying to buy a house mortgage rates got difficult. carleton: 6% for the first time since 2008. what you are seeing is basically we expect housing prices are going to go down. larry summers said don't expect 2008 but you are going to have buyers, even though you are only talking a few basis points here or there and monthly payment that is several hundred dollars a month. the rent versus own argument, becomes more prominent because people are going to be priced out of buying a house and people looking to rent. rental prices will not go down anytime soon. jack: you are looking at a different area in the real estate market sending a signal that maybe office workers won't be returning so quickly. jack: i spent upwards of 85 hours a week in the office, sleeping back upstairs, this isn't about me, it is about the average worker.

you look at office rate and dividend yields, the average dividend yield, 7.5%, double the average. it looks too high, it looks suspicious. look at prices relative to funds from operations, half the group's price, the discount before the pandemic was 12%. basically we know the story, vacancy rates are up, morgan stanley says of trends don't improve over the next 18 months office rate have to raise outside of capital and many could cut their dividends so that is what the market is expecting. it is not a realty trust in new york city, also office properties, income charts in washington dc, chicago, silicon valley, it is bullish on one. it is called high wood properties, the yield is not quite 7%. the company has more exposure to the sunbelt which doesn't have the same work from home risk.

jack: demoralized russian forces retreating is the momentum shifts in the war in ukraine? ice cream is like whooping cough, it's not just for kids. whooping cough is highly contagious for people of any age. and it can cause violent uncontrollable coughing fits. ask your doctor or pharmacist about whooping cough vaccination because it's not just for kids. another busy day? of course - you're a cio in 2022. but you're ready. because you've got the next generation in global secure networking from comcast business. with fully integrated security solutions all in one place. so you're covered.

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that generate high commissions for you, right? (fisher investments) no, we don't sell commission products. we're a fiduciary, obligated to act in our client's best interest. (other money manager) so when do you make more money, only when your clients make more money? (fisher investments) yep. we do better when our clients do better. at fisher investments, we're clearly different. jack: russia is getting lackluster support from china, and ian bremmer, thank you for joining us on the show. and he didn't get the show of solubility with the southern neighbor. >> that is true, but it is a bad year for putin, and he must be a scorpio or something.

xi jinping, is unhappy with how bad the war in ukraine has been going. not specifically on the military front but the fact that putin and russia becomes a pariah for the g7 and 11 jinping who stood up on the stage in february and said you are my best friend, close a strategic partners, xi jinping wants no part of the kind of treatment the russians are getting from the west. they want to keep doing business with them, they don't want to be on the wrong side of sanctions, they are not providing military support for russia. putin clearly understood that that was coming and he was in putin's opening statement before he sat down with xi jinping, that he proactively raised, that he understands the china has questions and concerns about ukraine.

we never saw put make that kind of sheepish opening statement with the world leader, what he is so aligned with. >> there was more, the ukrainians took back thousands of square miles of territory and we are hearing a few murmurs of dissent in russia which is unusual, probably, how does putin respond? >> the problem is putin doesn't have any good military options on the ground in ukraine. there are things he can do to punish ukrainians, we've seen significant literary strikes, against water treatment facilities, to punish the

ukrainian people, and and which putin needs over time, it takes a minimum of 4 to 6 months. it wasn't a push back to the counteroffensive, you see that, the dissent you've seen among the city council, the fact that in state media you have people actively saying what is going on here? how did the russians get it so badly? was putin badly advised? they don't criticize the president rightly but offer criticism. it seems to me, putin lashes out against the west. he's blaming nato for making ukrainian armies so strong, intelligent, military support and the rest. in the near-term, he can cut off all the energy to europe in advance of winter and see if that breaks europe, break their

morale and unity. that is where he is heading. europeans will be getting into significant recession as a consequence but i don't see a win for the russians. jack: you don't see your for breaking. what do you see for the energy structure and europe as he is presumably squeezing the flow of gas and can these oil price caps work? >> what we are going to see is the europeans diversifying completely. the russians made a mistake tactically in not using the leverage they had, not cutting them off, putin vardy was going to win. 7 months later, the europeans had time to take steps to increase their storage of gas for the winter. they were able to acquire a lot more from the united states, gas from qatar, they've been

able to get floating terminals off the coast. all of this means while it will be painful, it won't be crippling and that means the europeans will be able to get through this period without changing their orientation on russia or ukraine. they won't wobble on you but he did sections, 7 rounds which were supported unanimously by 27 european member states. it hurts the russians a lot more than it hurts ukraine. jack: that seems like positive news that will help inflation a little bit. i want to pivot before i let you go to domestic politics. trump endorsed candidates have been raiding a lot of republic in primaries, some are running away from this thing about the stolen election and the polls are suggesting democrats might have a chance of holding on to the senate, polls have often been wrong. what is your take? >> 92% of the candidates trump

has endorsed in primaries have won, trump only decides to make an endorsement when he thinks the candidate is likely to win which is smart for trump because it boosts the numbers kind of like not a surprise from a candidate who understands so well, the media and commune occasions space. the fact is a lot of the primary winners that are pro trump and pro maga are less likely to win in a general election. that is why the democrats have funded a number of these trump supporters against their more moderate and less problematic to work with republican opposition. that is dangerous thing for the dems to do but in the near-term doesn't make it more likely that they are able to hold the senate. at this point i see the senate as a coin flip. the republicans are still overwhelmingly likely to take the house but the number of seats they will capture significantly less. we are talking more like a 15-20 seat swing as opposed to a 30-40 c to swing seat swing.

in a midterm election, frankly, that is going to feel like a relief for most democrats. jack: it will be a fascinating november, fascinating to talk to you. tanks for coming on the show. after convincing viewers to pay up to avoid commercials netflix and disney are introducing lower price add support tears. what it means for i have moderate to severe ulcerative colitis. so i'm taking zeposia, a once-daily pill. because i won't let uc stop me from being me. zeposia can help people with uc achieve and maintain remission. and it's the first and only s1p receptor modulator approved for uc. ♪ don't take zeposia if you've had a heart attack, chest pain, stroke or mini-stroke, heart failure in the last 6 months, irregular or abnormal heartbeat, if you have untreated sleep apnea, or take maois.

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>> advertising is about to flood streaming services like never before, and supported tears. this is really, and it is

thursday night football and amazon. tell us about it. >> netflix and disney plus will advertise, they are in a race, they moved up their schedule, netflix as soon as november, trying to lock in these deals, netflix needs to reverse two straight quarters of subscribers and make something happen. and those rising interest rates, they are less patient about companies with skin free cash flows, netflix is never a cash flow generator, disney used to produce of massive amount of free cash flow to stream, these companies are not bringing this ad revenue in a hurry. jack: television advertising is a shotgun. with streaming there could be more targeted approach to hitting the specific audience the advertiser wants.

jack: streaming company's have direct credit card relationships with their customers. that is as good as it gets to pinpoint specific customers. the audience is also huge, netflix get double the viewership of the most-watched company out of traditional television. there's a huge audience also. ben: we are watching the slow death of standard television. what does that mean for shows i like to watch like ncis, ncis hawaii? >> death is too strong word, regular television generate a lot of cash. it could accelerate, we are down from 100 million pay-tv subscribers, to 80 million today and it did accelerate over the past year from the year before. you will still get your ncis. i think it is on paramount but you like some left turn and shirley, you like a little bit

of gun smoke of gunsmoke and the good news is there are other services, they calm fast, you take cheap shows and run them and it looks like cable, scheduled shows, not watching whatever you want, they load them up with that and it is free. carleton: i love catching the doorman and whatnot but let's talk business, google and facebook generating $300 billion a year. what happens to that with streaming turning to ads? jack: those companies are strong but internet advertising wants tracking technology like cookies and there is a crackdown from apple which wants to have customers explicit to give permission for companies to track in which a lot of customers don't want to do. talking about how to reach customers in a post cookie world and that is a perfect set up for streaming and streaming is also, the video can be much more persuasive than display

ads. i spoke to the ceo of a company called trade desk and he told me a banner ad has never made you cry. he also said connected tv will tear down the walls of the gardens, talking about google and facebook. carleton: what are some of the other places? jack: trade desk is up your play and they are in a prime position partnering with disney about advertising technology. microsoft won the contract with netflix which is a big surprise, microsoft bought an ad tech company from at&t at the end of last year so this is a big proof point for them, not up your play but among traditional tv players disney and warner media look good while positioning rich content engines. a lot of live news and sports which continue to do well. >> will we see as many ads on networks as regular tv?

jack: exactly right, cable, there's a couple of that. it came to reasonable traditional tv. customers have too many choices. i would expect these companies will start with an ad load of formative advertising and customers said this is great. we get a lower price and it will ramp up in the form of more ads. there is too much money from a consumer standpoint. the golden era of streaming was a few years ago when netflix is burning $3 billion in free cash more than you were paying for. jack: it was a rough week for the markets. you have some interesting investment ideas for the coming week and jack says disney found another wa people remember ads with young people having a good time. so to help you remember that liberty mutual customizes your home insurance,

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jack: com sawyer got people to pay him to whitewash his fence, but has got nothing on disney. jack: i just came back from disney world, the ticket prices have gone nuts. there is no up charge if you want to skip the most brutal lines. another up charge for lines that are not included, that up charge and a lot of things that used to be free are no longer free. not all scientific math, my costs were up 40%, my fund was down 20% and the kids were 15% wine here. if you're wondering what customers will revolt, look no further than d 23 this past week, basically disney's version of apple's iphone day except the attendees pay,

ticket prices are $89 for one day, $229 for all three days and if you want good seats it is $899 and to even by you have to join a club called d 23, for disney's founding your 1923, that is $99.99 a year. you get to learn things that are coming to disney, this year wasn't much. if you're paying that much to learn that middle, cash flow is for disney is c. jack: you got a good one for the times. carleton: looking at vanguard yielding 4.2%, getting the cash rate, and low expense ratio. the blue chips like jpmorgan and bank of america and goldman sachs. jack: something a little more exciting. ben: the parent company of corona beer, if we go into recession, stocks hold up

better, good things pricing, to make sure it's not too accent of the customers stay around, 5% this year. it holds up very well and looks interesting. jack: we are in recessions. thanks, guys, great ideas all. check this week's addition of barron.com the, that is offer us, see you next week on "b is a paid presentation furnished by rare collectibles tv, llc. (music) (announcer) our country was founded on life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness. representing this idealism is our american eagle. the bald eagle was chosen in 1782 to represent the united states because of its long life, majestic looks and great strength. the eagle has since become part of our