neil: if you play upbeat music you wouldn't have time to think how depressed you should be with rising rates that are higher tomorrow. expect another 3-quarter point hike, and the third such hike,

you are around 0 and ending the year, a big advance.o edward lawrence, the backdrop is concerns the fed could overdo it. getting all the dairy and all of that. edward lawrence is very daring, what the guy in the building behind. >> federal reserve is getting inflation down and what the balance is, pushing into a long recession for the us. strap in and get ready, that's the message from head of the world bank and jay powell saying people in the us and around the globe strapping in the prepared for economic pain. the president talking with

larry kudlow about his fears for recessions. >> i'm worried about it being long. china in the second quarter, they still have some going on and they are relieving that so could be part of the supply-chain. >> reporter: he will be in new york for general assembly. president biden leaves in a few hours for new york, the global recession fears grows, it inflation at around the world also grows, that is what voters in the us are seeing and feeling. >> we are struggling to meet our needs, we pick and choose what is important and those are the things, to do things that we want, to buy the extra things. neil: if it is not construction

it is lawnmowers going behind me. we are going for rate hike decision tomorrow. it's going to be a rate hike, 75 points or a percentage point or one full percentage. the fed chairman is the one who said american businesses and americans should expect economic pain in the future. neil: president biden driving that lawnmower. i have never seen that. thank you very much. that wasn't president biden, prove me wrong. let's go to madison allworth, the real estate market and the number of americans who are backing out of purchase commitments, we are backing out of those and she follows all of this in staten island, new york. >> we are seeing cancellation

rates skyrocket. new homes, buyers coming with a lower mortgage rate the takes longer to build and that is when the buyer tries to back out. if he can no longer afford it, skyrocketing, august cancellations at 19%, that is up from 7% last year, people backing out because mortgage rates are not set when the home construction starts. once a rate rises, a house that was once within budget may no longer be within the budget. add that to higher labor costs and higher material costs and you have a messy recipe. >> it is going to create back log and these builders, builders have mortgages, construction loans. it will create a cycle of a media downturn into next year. we are very concerned about

housing supply, and 2 million units behind, falling behind half a million housing units, a big concern. >> reporter: mother -- the number of housing starts, new construction on new homes came slightly better-than-expected. building permits came less than anticipated. less construction is expected, the fifth straight month of decline and we've not seen in many months of decline since january of 2009 at the end of the housing market crash. homebuilders want more than anything to get into those homes. we see homebuilders offer incentives to get a new one oral one backing out, paying for closing costs, buying down the mortgage rates to get monthly payments more

affordable but mortgage rates, that is going to be something people pay attention to what the fed meeting. we see rates above 6%, there are signs it could go higher than that. neil: thank you very much, the rising rates were going to provide competition, a 2-year note closing in on these levels close to 4%. not too shabby when you get that return for two years, doesn't give you will real concern given the rotation rate. what you have is a worry for the markets. it is good seeing both of you here. in the flesh. so what is your view, what we see out of the fed.

>> i have been saying it was always going to be 75 immediately. they need to be more aggressive months ago and one hundred basis points back in late spring or early summer maybe we wouldn't be where we are now but i think that's where the market is pricing in and it is different, if they go 100, that is going to send a message of we are panicking and if they go 50 it will be much too complacent based on what they are telling everybody. neil: it is about freaking the markets. >> look what we are doing. neil: you are good student of history the dallas fed, i don't remember paul volcker freaking out about whether the markets liked, at that time they didn't but it ended up being net net good for them. >> he gave the markets and the us economy for the long-term

the medicine they needed. before paul volcker was in that position, he ran the new york federal reserve so he didn't care about markets given what his background was, he just got the job done. neil: is that a mistake to ignore the market? >> you cannot be insensitive to what hard-working americans made and squirreled away in their 401(k)s and iras because they waited. neil: your actions artificially propped up the markets, doesn't do any good. >> you understand that. i understand that. the retirees understand that? their financial advisors told him to be in it for the long term, to buy and hold, stay there. what if you are 70 years old and don't have the option to reenter the workforce at that age. neil: that is a different definition. >> shorter for me every day.

>> they held rates too loafer too long which is where we are. neil: it is mind-boggling. and we could end at 4% or more. >> we started this in march. neil: is transitory, and people questioning them. neil: it started, any effect it is working, still remains high. only thing i see signs where it is working is some other economic sign slowing. >> housing is in crisis. all the way through the entire series, we've never seen this disparity between housing starts and permits, builders

will back, builders see falling prices, separate survey, 7% of builders see their incentives are not working to pool buyers off the sideline so if this means home prices -- neil: a lot of them have been forced. >> builders are putting incentives out there but if the means a year from now we are talking housing being more affordable what is wrong with that? >> what they are not talking about is adjustable-rate mortgages which were popular couple years ago and they start to adjust and revolving credit, the impact that is going to make on the consumer. neil: they were bad when they change every year or two, for 10 years, presumably things get better before refinancing. don't know if the devil may care risky product in the last housing.

>> the prevalence is not there. if you look at credit card balances, the amount of credit that people have taken that they are afforded by their lender we are about to hit those ceilings, people are maxed out in terms of credit limits when those rates are resetting. >> the revolving one like j crews, those are not locked in. as the fed changes they change. >> kenny clearly got this at bloomy's. neil: do you think this idea of reliving the housing crisis having covered that, i don't see the same devil may care risk-taking, mortgage-backed securities, for what they were, don't see that and there is other stuff going on. >> a third of all these buyers have been investors and investors buying 1/3 of

existing home sales in america are blacked by leverages as well. neil: it is a different leverage story. >> exactly. it is not a separate mortgage but it is leverage. neil: don't wander too far, a sense of what is going on right now but some people rushing back, the clear message is half of americans returning to the office, with the boss saying nice to see that but no guarantee, we will explain.

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such hike. i was looking at fund futures looking for a similar hike. the fourth of that magnitude in november so we will explore that later and we are keeping a close eye, on the part of the president to forgive 40 million american students debt and right now republicans are saying how are you going to pay for that? a concept the doesn't seem very republican where they will ask colleges to pay for that for their endowments, get a little more in the weeds. hillary vaughan is good at explaining in the weeds when she's not peppering these guys with nasty questions. what is going on here? >> reporter: group house republicans trying to get taxpayer money back for president biden's sweeping student loan forgiveness that some experts say could cost taxpayers $600 billion. a group wants colleges and universities to pick up part of

that tap, congress and dave joyce and congressman byron donald and myra floor is introducing a bill that would increase taxes on colleges and universities raising the current 1.4% tax they pay the 10%, it would lower the threshold so more colleges have to pay this tax, colleges valued at $250,000 a student making those people pay up and an additional 20% tax on endowments for any college or university that raises tuition higher than inflation. congress enjoys telling digital, america's elite universities are the silent beneficiaries of president biden's student debt bailout. these institutions need to be held accountable for their role in the nation's ballooning student debt. higher education critics continue to say biden's student loan payoff is not a fix at all for the root of the problem which is overpriced education. >> it would have been great for

the president and political leadership to spend time thinking about how to fix the way american families pay for, afford college. instead we took the easy way out, the political way out, might be good politics but the student loan bailout is that economics. >> reporter: some say it is bad policy. some private organizations are searching for plaintiffs, people they can used to bring this case to the supreme court, one of those groups is the job creators network. they say once biden post the website so people can begin applying for the student loan forgiveness than they plan too soon. neil: let's go to congressman who sits on the house appropriations committee, i understand what is behind this and maybe colleges deal with this but as a republican, there

is something on in hearing you want to go after the money, series of corporate institutions. isn't that like going after oil companies for excessive profits? >> no. what we are going after is the fact that endowments received by the institutions continue to play in the market and do other things and increase their profits. we are saying the tax will increase the profits they are making because they are doing nothing to bring down the bottom line on the cost of education, 20 years ago, inflation has gone up 65%, they doubled that, raised tuition, over the same period of time, that they are involved in that is helpful to them, a good deal, why was the endowment money creating a loan pool in which they could loan money to

students at the same rates and they had more incentive the students graduate. neil: i am always amazed at the fact that colleges and the increase of tuition inflation is running four times what it is for general inflation and it seems to always be propelled by more generous grants or loans that a lot of kids are getting even now that makes the situation worse. >> we need to train kids for jobs that exist. the part that got to me when the president announced this was the fact that what america needs is skilled workers, we need kids going to the workforce now and they have the ability to help these kids go to school to train them so they are in the trade at the time and after 5 years with no debt, a job and a good paying job and

a skill. artificial intelligence isn't going to fix your ac on a sunday or come home and your plumbing is busted, we need to train people for jobs that exist and universities are failing with the rates we are giving them now, we need to make sure they are coming out with the most important degree, the job. stuart: the artificial intelligence explains why my entire college career -- a lot of people look at what you are doing and say no need to worry because this would never pass muster with any court anytime so it is going away, what do you say? >> we have to fight them where they are and let them know we are looking at those endowments and if they think these are great investments invest in your people, invest in the educational system and since you went to saint bonaventure and i went to the university of

dayton many decades ago, we had sushi and yoga and all the things universities provide now, instead we need to get back to the basics, training people for jobs that exist. i talk about scaling, if people were in stem there is 0 or 2% or 3% on their education but french majors hate me but if you want to go to a 4-year degree to be a french major, maybe 20% is the interest rate you should pay, they have a way to market these loans to people and force people into the education areas we need skilled workers in. stuart: neil: you had sushi. >> swiss steak was fried three different ways. neil: thank you very much, we are keeping a close eye on this. meanwhile the rush to get back to work, we are told in the city behind me, about half of new yorkers have returned to their offices meaning the other half have not and there is growing pressure especially from investment banking folks who say get your fannie's back.

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the company profile tool, in thinkorswim®. yes, i love you!! please ignore that. td ameritrade. award-winning customer service that has your back. >> is the pandemic over? >> president biden: the pandemic is over. we still have a problem with covid and doing a lot of work on it. the pandemic is over. no one is wearing masks. everybody seems to be in good shape. i think it is changing. neil: notice is wearing masks, there were no people period. may be a car show or something.

the president says covid is over, sigh of relief to some but some concerns expressed by the medical community, not so fast, don't want to get too ahead of our medical skis, gerri willis following develop into new york where vaccine mandates have a way of coming and going, what is the latest? >> reporter: new york city's private businesses no longer have to require their employees to have covid 19 vaccines under new rules the go into effect november 1st. private-sector companies will be allowed to set up their own vaccine policies. mayor eric adams announcing a change to the strictest in the nation requirements this morning. listen. >> we provide additional flex ability to business by lifting the private-sector mandate november 1st, this put the choice in the hands of new york businesses.

it is imperative we asked him to continue to encourage their employees to get their vaccines and booster shots. >> he said vaccine requirements for nyc schoolchildren to participate in extracurricular activities will become optional. however he said the requirement will remain in place for the city's employees. that rule because the city to fire 1400 workers and prompted lawsuits. the controversial requirements that track vaccination of workers and those who aren't vaccinated from the workplace, that started a year ago in december 2021, put in place by former mayor bill deblasio. adams caught back lash after dropping the mandate for professional athletes and performers but not other private-sector workers. rules have been used in the city. the mask requirement and earlier this month. when asked if the city will lift that mandates for public

workers the department of education said in a statement the health commissioner has not lifted the mandate for public employees. neil: i think i grasped some of that. what did the president mean by saying covid was taken care of? and adjustments to that. what he meant to say, what is the latest? >> reporter: democrats found themselves in cleanup mode trying to mop up after president biden's statement. >> the pandemic may be over, the virus is here and still vaccines are the best tool to fight it. >> reporter: president biden probably didn't do himself favors as democrats push for $20 billion in covid aid in a big spending bill due next

week, money is necessary to avert a government shutdown, democrats may need gop votes to pass the bill but republicans are baffled by the administration's mixed messages. >> they constantly contradict themselves. you can look at the military right now. of the pandemic is really over let's pay the national guardsmen who aren't getting paid because they refused vaccine. how about the 850 teachers that just got let go in new york city. >> reporter: gop north carolina senator richard but wrote to the president may wants they had been a straight into outline which covid policies don't align with mister biden's statement, republican senator mike rounds is open to discussions about covid money. democrats find themselves in the unenviable position of interpreting the president's words. >> the good news is mortality rates are very low and that is what the president meant. we had trouble with this money

from the get go. the president's request is a justified request. >> reporter: house speaker nancy pelosi wouldn't save she agreed with mister biden but added more resources are needed to make sure the pandemic is over. neil: different times, different votes, it is confusing. maybe the idea of he was in charge, who is the deal, is why the dow is revisiting session lows, 470 points. it is very clear investors are concerned, they don't know the real skinny about funding the war effort or what if anything the federal reserve is going to do. some of this is reflective of

that or throwing up their hands. >> the leadership vacuum has spread through the public sector and when you pick up the wall street journal, more than 400 people dying every day covid, the president said it is over so that is confusing. by the same token, putting back in the hands of the private-sector where their employees should be is an important first step nationwide. neil: half are not doing that. i'm just wondering what if it stays at those levels? >> i'm not sure the half will be able to stay away. they will put pressure, half are coming back, the rest are encouraged to come back and at some point, right now the employee feels i am in charge, i will do what i want and they will get hit with a dose of reality. neil: do you tell them i need

you here? >> i am my people. >> put your face time in. neil: there is subtle pressure. we were talking about this, the pendulum is turning. >> at the snail of that, 67% of employers welcome the resignations. and the word welcome was used, 89% of their employees, broader paul, 89% said they feared they would lose their jobs if they didn't come back and there are certain things it resolved, including worker entitlement. >> the amounts from last week that it was a subtle hint they will start doing layoffs again. and they get that back. >> at the same time, exactly

right, these people on the edge. neil: you like people. >> being alone in your house has not been helpful to anyone especially anyone trying to build a career and network and personality. >> set aside people's feelings, a lot of american companies can measure the productivity they have lost because there's no longer collaboration in the office setting. neil: a lot of them had high numbers and not saying that's advisable but should there be a percentage of people, are we going to look at this and say that was an anomaly? >> my biggest concern, we have seen quiet quitting and quiet outsourcing.

once they figured out they can work at home successfully, put law library on a chip and send it to english speakers same with architects and accountants and that's one of the vestiges we see, we outsourced higher skilled jobs because employers found out they can do this from anywhere. >> not paying the same rates. that is why the offices aren't filling backup. neil: they tell me, no one is watching, all right, thank you very much. they've done nothing to improve the market environment brilliant though they are, we are down 476 points.

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his opponent charlie crist reported with $20 billion but with 49 days until the november election his campaign approach, desantis, has been unconventional, spent a lot of time away from florida to campaign on behalf of other republicans in arizona, new mexico, ohio, wisconsin, and pennsylvania, and his freedom agenda certainly hitting accord with the conservative base especially on the issue of illegal immigration in the crisis at the southern border. >> when you have criminal aliens that have gotten across the border and those criminal aliens then go and victimize american citizens do you ever hear anything about that by these folks? they want open borders, they want you to deal with the open borders but they want to be immune from the consequences of these policies. ashley: as desantis else's national profile and continues to comment on politics he refuses to comment on a possible run for president in

2024 but gop strategists say his cross-country campaign rallies are putting down a marker. >> from the standpoint of looking at 2024 i would say ron desantis has to be one of the top two or three republicans in america the primary voters, caucus voters looking at as a leader. neil: political strategists say the florida governors trying to win over donald trump supporters without taking on trump directly. and democrat charlie crist is close according to the latest polls, maybe desantis may be spending more time in florida as we approach the november election. neil: i want to go to mark meredith, still at least statistically close.

a lot of tossup battles here, mark meredith keeping track of all that. >> reporter: the latest data showing republicans in strong shape to regain majority control of the house, democrats have a shot, smaller chance of keeping control, a new report came out today indicates after november republicans likely to have 231 seats under their control, 218 seats is a majority. house speaker nancy pelosi insists democrats can survive if not thrive in the midterm, she and her caucus, making abortion and voting rights, the economy, crime, border security. it is a closer contest in the senate because the senate is evenly split. gop vote has a slight advantage in november but there are four senate races considered tossups which will determine control. those tossup's include arizona, georgia, nevada, pennsylvania, pennsylvania, the seat is open

with pat toomey's retirement, so you have dr. oz against john federman and in georgia the football legend herschel walker trying to knock out incumbent senator rafael warknock. in the peach state, data shows stacy abrams and brian kemp leading in republicans favor. abrams having trouble connecting with voters. her team -- other governors still watching tossup's, arizona, kansas, maine, new mexico nevada, wisconsin. a lot can happen between now both parties driving turnout, the best way to do that is however they get you to run for office. neil: sounds like a senator. just doesn't have a ring to it. i don't know. thank you, my friend, great job as always.

the washington examiner, kayla, there are a number of these very close battles going on in the gubernatorial levelland some senate contests and house contests, but it is not at this stage that republicans, that we were told it could be. i don't remember in recent elections wherever turned out the way the polls seemed to indicate it might. what is your thought on where we stand? >> we 've seen the races tighten in the swing states but one key indicator here is on the issues that are trending as most important issues for voters, republicans are outperforming democrats significantly. democrats perform better on issues like abortion as of right now but abortion comes as a last priority on what voters are saying are their main concerns as they head to the polls. neil: let's talk about how each

side spends their money. we are told good deal of the democratic money is going into pushing the roe v wade reversal on the part of the supreme court trying to galvanize young people, women. what can you tell us about that? >> reporter: democrats are pushing hard and they have an advantage in that there is a basic political principle that it is easier to rally voters against something than it is for something. right now they are finding success rally in voters against what they say is an extremist abortion agenda on the part of pro-life candidates and republican so republicans have to counter that by rallying voters against democrats extremist abortion agenda. republicans are having a hard time with that. there is a bit of an advantage on the democratic side on that issue. whether it makes a difference as a top concern is yet to be seen. neil: lindsey graham may have

complicated this for republicans by raising this issue again and calling a moratorium on all abortions after 15 weeks by so doing, this is how he acclaimed himself on fox and friends. >> talking about abortion, what i would do if i were running, i would look at the camera guy and say my opponent supports aborting a baby up to the moment of birth, taxpayer dollars are -- i rejected that. my position, we are on the wrong track everywhere now we are on the wrong track on abortion. this is a human rights issue. neil: the supreme court made it a states rights issue and that is something that was beginning to resonate and unite republicans. >> this is politics, timing is important. the timing of instagram's proposal is not the best that it could be.

lindsey graham's strategy, and largely popular proposal, the vast majority of americans when pulled on this issue support and put that forward as a reasonable alternative to what we have now which is abortion on demand that democrats support and again polling shows the vast majority of americans would support a restriction of that kind so is it that extreme? i don't think it is. the timing isn't -- the economy is the issue. it always seems to lead. the abortion issue depending on polling is up there. it is the economy and inflation. frustration with job security and the rest and layoffs that are beginning to percolate that has a lot of folks worried.

shouldn't that be what republicans are talking about? >> absolutely especially in key swing states. we have been tracking top issues for voters, the washington examiner in each of these states like michigan, pennsylvania, even florida, arizona, we have found inflation and education are the top issues voters are most concerned about which is why you hear most republik and candidates focusing on those issues and that should be the goal, to drive those points across the finish line come november. neil: the freefall, things can change in a couple hours, we are down 520 points. all the major averages taking it on the chin. how much of an effect you think the markets will have? >> reporter: the markets influence public opinion like public opinion influences the markets. of the market does go into a dive before november that will freak people out and make them think something bad with the economy is going to happen.

who are they going to hold responsible for the economy? usually the party that is in charge, none of this is good news for democrats. they are at a disadvantage but we will see what they say come november. charles: the 7 weeks to go. we are at session lows. the dow, 537 points. all the sectors down today. no flight to quality anywhere. ♪ ♪ . .

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sorry, i had another thought so i got back in line. what was it? [ sighs ] i can't remember. neil: all right, we're about an hour into the federal open market committee meeting. that is the two-day meeting that is going to decide where interest rates go tomorrow where they will announce it. i wonder if they have a look at the dow as they meet because it is not doing too well? here is charles payne. charles: unfortunately someone said this is exactly what jay powell wants to see. neil: i think you're right. >> i don't know part of the job description is being a sadomasochist. thanks a lot, neil. good afternoon, i'm charles payne, this is make being money. it is reaching a fever pitch, sending stocks way down, bond yields way up in fact to levels we haven't seen in years. we know 75s basis point, that is a given what will jay powell 3.0 say? what will his resolve be wit