stuart: good morning. it is 10:00 eastern. have a look at what is happening to your money in the stock market. the federal reserve is likely to raise rates maybe 75 basis points, the market is accepting that, dow is up one hundred 73 points. long-term interest rates, look at the 10 year treasury yield just above 3.5%. the price of oil moving up a bit today, $84 a barrel and bitcoin, last time we checked was 19-2, it is now 19-two.

we are getting important economic indication, the housing market, latest read on existing home sales.: it is do month, marking 7 months in a row, existing home sales the biggest part of the housing market have fallen and that is the longest since october 2007. you want to know about price, median existing price up 7.7% year over year, $389,500. it was above 400 and is coming down. stuart: a number of homes solve this coming down, 4.8 million, housing market in trouble. thanks very much, now this.

they were supposed to be feeding hungry children during the pandemic, they were not. defrauding taxpayers to the tune of $200 million in one city. 47 people indicted, the largest pandemic fraud case to date, network of shell companies linked to a nonprofit called feeding our future created fake feeding programs for 125 million meals. even fake children. one man claimed he was feeding 5000 children twice a day from a second-floor apartment, he was that brazen but when the authorities investigated, he they claimed racial animus against the group because many of its members were from somalia, east africa, claim racism and it worked, stalled the investigation, the money came flowing, millions a week. all this goes back to biden's

over the top pandemic relief, the government -- it was as much vote buying is relief. leaves a bad taste in your mouth, doesn't it? second hour varney just getting started. normally when we go to pete hegseth he has a smile on his face but no reason to smile this morning. peters from minneapolis and i want to know what is going on in minneapolis. >> it isn't racial animus, welcomed with open arms, the somali muslim population. so much so there has been almost no reciprocity. if you want to come into our state and city we welcome you,

assimilate to our schools and culture and customs and be part of the state of minnesota. a lot of the kickbacks and corruption that existed in somalia made its way into minneapolis, this is the latest example of that. from politicians to the justice system and the media in minnesota, whole articles will be written about this not mentioning almost every single person involved is a somali muslim recently arrived in minnesota. they won't say that because they are afraid of racial animus when this has nothing to do with race and everything to do with banality incremental networks, 5 million over here, saying they are feeding kids, they weren't feeding anybody. we saw with the rise of isis, minneapolis, they have evidence of voter fraud.

it is not targeting based on religion or race, it is a recognition with certain people doing certain things that we need to pay attention to. stuart: putin announced a partial mobilization in his military. >> translator: it is necessary to support the proposal of the ministry of defense to conduct partial mobilization in russia. we are talking about partial mobilization. stuart: he is threatening to use his nukes, president biden will speak in a few moments from now. what do you think president biden should be saying about this now today? >> we hope the ukrainians are successful but it is not in the us's interest to pour billions more into that conflict. this is vladimir putin's give me my stuff back or.

he was repelled and it is a small portion of the country, because of his military limitations, he has locations in men, mobilizing more, is more likely, perpetual stalemate and conflict means we will hear more rhetoric and desperation from hooton, nuclear weapons talk before, no reason what i don't want is escalation. don't want this spilling over and don't want america's involvement i hope president biden makes clear this is ukraine's fight but we are not going to push russia to the place where they do something more dramatic. stuart: the president will speak in half an hour. gavin newsom, attacking republican governors. >> calling them dumb and stupid. >> the most conservative governors, greg abbott and

others are as dumb as they want to be and doubling down on stupid and we will not follow their path. stuart: whoa. lauren: he was speaking at a climate event and was launching his presidential platform, california is for freedom for abortion rights, california will work to protect the environment. he signed 40 onerous green laws. the state can't keep the lights on. stuart: having wrecked his own state, winning a national election in the united states. i hope i am right. here is another one. this is a good one. poll suggests there could be a red wave in georgia. lauren: herschel walker leaves rafael warknock, pretty close, 46 walker, 44 warknox. in the governor's race, brian kemp ahead of stacy abrams,

50-42. 's approval rating in georgia is 54%. compare that to biden underwater in georgia with early 7% approval rating and that is interesting because biden keeps going up as gas prices go down on the national level but not in georgia. so why? 70% of people polled say the us is on the wrong track and i know abortion is a hot button issue, but not in georgia, 5% said that was a top issue. stuart: interesting. back to the markets. put him on the screen, that man is eddie ghabour. he has been right this year. when will we hit bottom? >> we think the absolute bottom will be in the first half of next year. although there will be some buying opportunities in the third quarter, our playbook for

our clients, sitting on a lot of cash, to buy more defensive names in october, the next leg down. we haven't seen a buying opportunity in fixed income like this in 10 years. treasuries have the first year in history for them but we will slowly purchase treasuries, defensive needs as we get the next leg down in october. we only owned utilities, staples and a little bit of energy, we have no tax, no small-cap, no high data. we think those will be the names we will #in the first half of next year. that in my opinion will be a buying opportunity of a lifetime, and so bearish to be extremely bullish once we get to that time period. stuart: finally, eddie ghabour has seen the light of day and is beginning to agree with me that buying a 1-year treasury and holding it to maturity and getting 4% interest with a tax break is not a bad idea. you are coming around to my point of view.

>> the thing with treasury, we will go longer on the curb because we will plan the fact that next year, because we will be in a bad recession, the long-term rates will go down and there's an opportunity to earn double-digit returns of appreciation on a boring long-term treasury so we are not playing it only for the yield but for the upside potential that we think is going to be there and i set up to diversify a portfolio. we haven't seen upside like that in a long time. stuart: the market bottoms in the first half of next year, nothing wrong with a short-term treasury or long-term. good stuff, thanks. looking at the prompter here, going to cover the cruise lines, down to dance up the last few days. lauren: bookings are strong but not out of the picture.

they supply europe with energy. oil is a big winner today because of the nuclear threat from putin, partial mobilization of the reservists there and cruise lines use a lot of fuel so we can tie this back to the panel russia is casting. stuart: and the parts are down. and the hotels. walmart. what is the story? lauren: they are hiring 40,000 seasonal workers but last year was 4 times that of those workers last year were permanent and full-time, it was 150,000 last year, this shows the downsizing corporate america has underwent with inflation being so high, stock is up because 40,000 workers is cheaper than 150,000. we one a beauty company that i can see is up 5% and i want to know why. lauren: they raised their revenue forecast and gross margin forecast. we don't say that much, they did that for the richer customers still buying expensive beauty products and announced their intention to

double skincare sales. we want the dow is up 180 points. thanks, the city of north carolina giving away free cash to ex-convicts, who is paying's paying for this? the ceo of twitter along with private investors, tennessee senator marsha blackburn wants to end penalties on unvaccinated service members. will it make it through congress? i will ask tennessee congressman mark green. he's on the show. ron desantis response to the criticism for sending migrants to martha's vineyard. watch this. >> when biden is flying these people all over the fruited plain in the will of the night i didn't hear a people out of those people. the only thing i hear them getting upset about is you have 50 that end up and martha's vineyard, then they get really upset. stuart: i hate to say the hypocrisy is truly glaring, isn't it? we will be back. ♪

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no impact from the news that new home sales declined down 7%, big deal in the realty community, no impact on the market, still up 180. and the governor of florida, ron desantis is responding to biden and the democrats who slam him for flying migrants to martha's vineyard. what is he saying? >> democrats hold a double standard. >> when biden is flying these people all over the fruited plain in the middle of the night i didn't hear a p bout of those people, they are drowning in the rio grande, you had 50 that died in a shed in texas. i heard no outrage about any of that. i haven't heard outrage about the fentanyl coming across the border that is killing americans in record numbers. the only thing i hear them getting upset about is 50 that end up in martha's vineyard. then they get really upset.

lauren: lots of virtue signaling is what he is saying, the white house and delaware preparing for more flights commissioned by desantis. maybe it lost the element of surprise but let me say something. i think what desantis has done has everyone talking about this. and this is the time to come out with, to come out with your immigration policy. i did this stunt but this is how i want to change things, this is what the white house needs to do. >> and biden won't. when president biden was asked about crisis at the border, role that 8. >> why the border under your watch? >> president biden: there are three countries that -- there

are fewer immigrants coming from central america and mexico. it is a totally different circumstance. on my watch now is venezuela, cuba, nicaragua, the ability to send them back to those states is not rational. we went congressman mark green from tennessee joins me. that seemed to me he sidestepped the border crisis calling into different circumstances. >> i would submit to you they are lying when the border is secure and sending people back. i was in knoxville, tennessee this weekend. three buses showed up at the gas station, all venezuelan, all here, basically maduro is sending people to america from his jails. that is what is actually happening. the president is ignoring it. stuart: how long can this go

on? this is a major league crisis, overrun with 2 million in one year. the president ignores it. i don't think you can ignore it like this 7 weeks before the election. >> i don't understand either. it seems to deify any logic. when you think of the got aways and you add another million got aways and if you show up at the border, meet border patrol agent you are brought into the country, after biden's execution of his border policy, why would someone want to get away? why would a million people want to go around cvp? they are the nefarious folks bringing drugs or criminals coming in. that is 3 million people. there are 21 states in the country who have less the net population which is what we are calculating. this is a massive impact on the country, negative impact, he doesn't care. of the one your colleague in tennessee, senator marsha blackburn introduced a bill to end penalties imposed on

unvaccinated service members. now that the president has declared the pandemic over, surely this bill will make it through congress, won't it? >> i hope so. the national defense authorization act after amendment to repeal mandates, which have gotten army recruiting at 52% of its goal for last fiscal year, then decreased the size of the army because they couldn't recruit the units. that is how bad the vaccine mandate has impacted readiness. i applaud marsha for trying and hope it gets attached to the nva and they have to act on that in the senate but we have tried in the house and it hasn't gotten done. stuart: what a shame. it is an awful lot of good people, out of work because they wouldn't take a vaccine that wouldn't work anyway. extraordinary situation. >> really insane. think of the impact on the readiness of 60,000 national guardsmen who can't deploy. it is insane, makes no sense.

far more devastating than covid, the virus. we one 850 teachers in new york city which has a teacher shortage. it is exasperating, isn't it? there you go. thanks for being on the show. we need to emphasize what is going on. new york city taking new safety precautions to cut down on crime in the subways. lauren: installing cameras, two in each of the 6400 subway cars totaling $575 million, the city wants people to feel safer despite being surveilled. here's the rub. crime on subways is down 9% since 2019. ridership is down. look at this. 59% compared to ridership at pre-pandemic levels. two cameras in each subway car make you want to come back to work? step in the right direction, how about that? stuart: only time will tell.

we told you about new yorkers flocking to florida during the pandemic, it turned into a stampede with no end insight. we will tell you how many residents have moved to the sunshine state. any moment president biden addresses world leaders at the un, is expected to focus on ukraine and announced new support. jackie heinrich will have our report next. ♪

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stuart: and hours worth of business on fed point the fed is close to 200 points, nasdaq up 50 points. i see green. general mills up again. lauren: they left at their annual forecasts. executive predict a stronger year ahead despite persistent inflation so they keep racing grocery store prices. you feel that every time you go food shopping and keep paying them. of the one that is basic stuff you need that you will pay up for. lauren: you trade down and maybe you buy less and spend money at the end of the day. we 16% is not bad. chewy is an online pet food at 5%. lauren: the amazon of pet food is opening their 13 fulfillment

center in reno, nevada, helping them serve west and get deliveries done. stuart: off a lot of people got a lot of pets during the pandemic. electric car company of china. lauren: they launched their g9 flagship suv. it starts at $44,000 and that is expensive for an ev in china and that might be where stock is selling off. stuart: got it, thanks very much. we are waiting for president biden, set to speak at the un general assembly any moment now. and any idea, >> i expect quite a lot in response, that nukes could be on the table and his calling

for countries reserve troops. it it is not the first time we for the kremlin ratchet up nuclear rhetoric. a few days after the invasion of ukraine, putting nuclear forces on high alert. pro roman voices have urged use of tactical nukes, during the -- the white house framed this escalation as a desperate move from a leader who is not confident and prudent framed his nuclear threat as a defensive move, nato is the aggressor and falsely accusing the west of nuclear blackmail. >> translator: those who tried to blackmail us with nuclear weapons should know the prevailing winds can blow in their direction. >> reporter: the first time since world war ii russia called its reservists, the mobilization of 300,000 troops reportedly causing 1-way flights out of russia to sellout this morning. it follows russia's efforts to

organize sham referenda to annex a fifth of ukraine that is currently under their control which would give putin an expansive territory that he could claim to be protecting. and answer to president biden's warning not to use chemical nuclear weapons. >> president biden: more of a pariah than they have been. to determine what response there is. >> reporter: one problem that vexed world leaders is how to punish russia. a permanent member of un security council, that defies the charter's principles. it is near impossible, they have veto authority, the white house says president biden will speak substantively to the question of how to reform the un but might be happening behind closed doors including with un secretary-general and other world leaders, and expecting remarks to touch on iran's nuclear agenda and

chinese aggression. stuart: we are waiting to hear what our president will say about putin's nukes. we will wait a little longer. thanks very much, see you soon. former treasury secretary larry summers critical of president biden's energy policies. >> it is kind of insane but we have trucks and trains carrying oil are low for the country rather than constructing pipelines which would permit accessing more resources, cheaper, safer transmission. stuart: i agree it is kind of insane. the gentleman on the right-hand side of the screen is our friend dan everhart, the ceo of canary, and oil and energy company. i read the drill counts. why his drawing activity stalled? i know it has, why? >> first of all, recently there

is a chilling effect on the demand from china, oil demand is down year-over-year and that is keeping prices down and making investors languish more but the bigger arching theme is america has produced less energy. in 2019 we produced more than we consume that haven't gotten back there since covid because the biden administration policies are anti-supply, pushing energy costs on consumers. stuart: one story we are stuart: 1-story we are covering closely is the rise of natural gas and electricity prices. what kind of levels are we going to get to to heat our homes and provide juice for our homes. >> what we see in california for the last month and 1/2, with electricity prices that are going to climb 18 to 25% as we hit the climax of winter and

natural gas will go up somewhere around a quarter. there is a discrepancy between where natural gas is priced in europe and where it is priced in the us. delta will converge and it will be more pain for american consumers as we try to heat our homes this winter. stuart: you are in the energy business. i don't understand why we are not producing more energy, prices are up, profits would be up, what is the sticking point? >> the biden administration's policies put the word out that the long-term prognosis is not good. it is stopping long-term investment or limiting long-term investment and in the short term we have the supply-chain issue facing everybody. we don't have enough labor, can't get supplies from china, all kinds of issues with providing sand shortages for fracking, all kinds of shortages going on, labor problems in addition to policy coming out of dc is kind of anti-supply based and that is

pushing up prices. stuart: i want you to repeat what you are saying about electricity prices because everybody is scared about this. natural gas is up. we use natural gas to make electricity. therefore electricity is going to go up. what are you saying earlier? electricity prices maybe 1/4 this winter from last year? i take it will be more than that. >> it could be more than that. we've never been in a situation like this before. by medium, pretty bad. electricity prices looking more to the grid, with electric cars with economic growth and small population growth and under invested for years and chickens will come home to roost and lack of investment we see in california and over the next 2 or 3 years across the country, and we are just not prepared. we haven't invested in them.

of the one thanks for joining us, i know we will see you soon, thanks a lot. we've been talking about record number of new york city residents who are indeed flocking to florida. ashley, i believe, has some numbers. ashley: i have many numbers and one of the stampede's. according to research by the new york post, record-breaking number of those switch their drivers licenses to the sunshine state last month. the total of 5000838 new yorkers made the switch in august alone, that is the highest recorded number for a single month in history. year to date, 41,885 new yorkers handed over their licenses after moving south and at this rate if it keeps up a new annual record will be broken as well. we saw the trend begin when covid hit but predictions that it would slow down once the pandemic eased are apparently

proving to be wrong. at first it was the billionaires who headed south, than the rich and now the middle class, especially younger parents concerned about crime and the state of schools in new york. let's not forget in april, new york city mayor eric adams deployed digital billboards in florida trying to woo new yorkers back, but the data shows it had absolutely no effect at all and it is not just new yorkers heading south, california also setting a new high relations exchanges with florida last month, passing the 3000 mark for the first time with just over 3,000, 3,059 swaps, the same applied to new jersey last month, we saw a record 3259 license switchs. florida so far this year has received 321,881 out-of-state requests so far. can you say low taxes in the business environment? beautiful weather, doesn't take a scientist to.

stuart: i suspect an awful lot of snowbirds down in florida who never went back, so they changed their license because they are not going back to new york and new jersey or california. ashley: exactly right. stuart: and you are one of them, you lucky guy. take a look at this. it is from time magazine. it claims parents are turning schools into political battlegrounds and fracturing communities. time blames the parents, we will get into that. american construction company claims vietnam owes the millions of dollars for a paving project they did decades ago, they want the us government to get involved, grady trimble has the full story next. ♪ ♪

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stuart: real exciting this? on fed day when the federal reserve is expected to raise rate 75 basis points the market goes up 75 basis points is baked in but the market in the green as of now. then there is of this. the e-cigarette maker juul filed a lawsuit against the fda. on what grounds are they suing? ashley: on the grounds that the fda refused to head of a document supporting its order to take they are e-cigarette's off the shelves in the us market, the suit claims essentially the fda is violating the freedom of information act. back in june, the government agency ordered them to take its e-cigarette off the shelves as part of the push to to nicotine and cigarettes, and the public health agency was under political pressure to ban the e-cigarette and is now

refusing to disclose the scientific facts behind that decision. j juulsays it needs those documents as part of its appeal against the decision. stuart: the fda mentioned they mishandled the baby formula crisis. who are they blaming? ashley: a breakdown in the system from the fda's point of view and abbott nutrition, the baby former company at the heart of this massive recall after several babies died and they suspected bacterial contamination, recall lead to a chronic shortage of baby formula and the fda is admitting it was only equipped to handle crisis. lacking sufficient technology, personnel, and authority to address the situation. abbott came under fire for conditions at its factory in michigan but the company still maintains it meet and exceed regulatory requirements, infant formula testing and maintains a 0-tolerance policy for testing the lemonades contaminants but

during congressional hearings in may abbott apologized to families, to make sure a shortage will never happen again. hopefully everyone learned a valuable lesson. stuart: it is a mess. construction company in kansas claims it is owed millions of dollars by government owned company in vietnam. grady trimble is with me. they want our government to get involved to make them pay up. >> to make the vietnam company pay up because they haven't been able to get the state owned company in vietnam to pay up themselves after all this time. we are talking a small family-owned company in kansas called hall brothers inc. . starting in the early 2000s they had dozens of miles of highway in the commonest country. they have partial payments at first, and the state owned

company owes them $38 million for the work they did. including millions for labor, supplies, travel and other expenses, not to mention legal fees we accrued fighting this viennese company in court. these are the expenses on your screen and it hurt the hall brothers business in the us. >> it affected how much we could do in the united states because we had to send money over there to keep that going. >> hall brothers tells us several other us companies are in the same position as they are, the commerce department and other government agencies involved but so far, no luck getting them involved. stuart: aaron judge hits a major milestone with the 60th home run of the season. the pga spent hundreds of

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but when you're extremely heavy they're not so simple. golo is real and when you take release and follow the plan, it works. stuart: 10:50 eastern time, the market still on the upside, wait until 2:00 this afternoon when we hear from jay powell. the dow is down 140, interest rate in the news today, jay powell will raise it this afternoon. the yield on the 10 year treasury well above 3.5%. the yield on the 2-year treasury real close now. look at that, a fraction away from 4%, the 1-year holding above the 4%, it is moved to 4.09%. new york yankee slugger aaron

judge, and he is tied with babe ruth, how close is he to roger marist? ashley: just one home run away. he is a machine, judge him number 60 last night, take a look at this. >> on the left side, here is the 3-1. deep to left field. there it goes. number 60, slide over, babe, you've got some company. ashley: judge joins an exclusive club hit 60 home runs in a single season in the history of the major leagues, he tied for eighth place in the single-season list. judge is one home runs shy of tying roger marist app single-season record of 61 home runs said in 1961, and if that's not enough judge is in pole position for the triple

crown. he leads the league in batting average, home runs and rbis, becoming the 11th player to win that crown, since 1920. stuart: what the season the young man is having. greg norman, the live golf ceo on capitol hill. hilary von is there. what are these meetings about? >> reporter: putting a face to the live tour. greg norman is here on capitol hill meeting with congresswoman nancy mayo, the chair of the congressional golf caucus. he will lunch with republican study committee, the largest caucus on the hill, live golf telling me that live golf is coming to the hill this week come with lawmakers from both parties given the pga tour's attempts to stifle progress and reimagining the game. we think it is imperative to educate members on live's business model and counter the

tour's anticompetitive efforts, live golf made a controversial splash in the golf world, picked up players from the us pga tour, lowering them with externally huge paydays and where the money comes from to pay for the price purse, the critics say a scandalous. and they bring rates to the live tour, dustin johnson and bryson they are all banned from playing in the pga tour after the pga decided to blacklist players that defected to live, the doj is investigating the pga tour for potential antitrust violations because of that behavior and live has joined a federal antitrust lawsuit filed by pro golfers to say their careers are hurt by the pga tour banning them from competing in both tours and it is not just the pga tour or pro golfers giving the live tour a

stink eye, also some broadcast networks are as well, have yet to nail down a media partnership broadcast their tournaments. streaming services like apple and amazon turned them down but the point of today, i am told from people who met with greg norman, had dinner with him last night, that this is not about pga bashing behind closed doors but putting a friendly face to the live tour and promoting what they are trying to do. stuart: we hear that, thanks, a friendly face. what do you say? ashley: i understand the arguments of the pga, pga is a meritocracy, you have to earn it through college, lower leagues until you get to the big show but i also think live has a right to be a part of the equation and greg norman is a smart guy but it is a difficult one and a lot of people are on the fence about it but ultimately has a right to exist

and go its own way. stuart: i think you are right. thank you very much. still an arizona congressman andy biggs, lara trump, louisiana senator bill cassidy and will cane. when the president does address an issue directly his handlers often have to walk it back, so long as president of confusion continues and staff keeps changing his statements we can't be sure who is calling the shots, who is in charge, "my take" next. ♪ ♪ what's going on ♪ what's going on ♪

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>> we can to the lows before the end of the year and see what earnings pictures we have going into the fourth quarter and still have to face the fed raising rates for some time. >> it is not a good time to buy stocks until we see inflation begin to abate and the fed take their foot off the neck of the market. >> the fed is convinced inflation is on a downward path but we are not there yet. >> we only on utilities, staples and a little bit of