nnouncer] call aag, the country's number one reverse mortgage lender. - call the number on your screen. neil: remember walter cronkite's be aware of consensus? the consensus today, jerome powell is going to lead another 3-quarter point hike, federal

funds would be the third such hike we've seen in a row with the market factoring another one in november, but that is what we are speaking of the devil will be in the details, how it lays out in 90 minutes, the rate hike, we will know in an hour, jackie deangelis following all of this as she always does. >> reporter: we will hear from powell and look at the final word on what the market is anticipating. for weeks, will the fed hike interest rates by 75 basis points? possibly. bottom line, even if he does 75 basis points and another hike is coming after that anything you finance will cost more and that is important to american consumers, take mortgage rates, last year at this time, 2.86%, that was the percentage on a 30 year fixed loan, now it is 6.02%. what that means if you are buying a house the cost

$500,000 with 20% down payment, your payment will be $747 per month more now. that increase of 45%. that impacts people. it doesn't end they are. if you need a car loan same situation, credit card debt those rates are always high but you will see them creep up a little as well and the bad news is consumers are relying on cars more, 233 million new cars this year and consumer credit card debt is up 13% year on year. the flip side of this you are earning a little interest on your savings, high yields online savings account, one. 9% if you can lock in a 1-year certificate of deposit you could earn more than that but because of high inflation many americans have seen their savings dwindle, saying their retirement accounts, because stock market volatility, so how do we get here, lots of government spending versus inflation, the way you lower inflation is slow the economy by raising rates but those rate

increases fuel this crazy market reaction. some saying this is one way to do things, the jerome powell way, the other one, not spend trillions of dollars. neil: that might have helped. thank you very much. bob doll is with us. i love talking to him about this craziness. and chief investment officer, what are you looking for from the fed today. >> reporter: 75 as everybody is saying. and we are fighting inflation, fighting inflation, fighting inflation. will that be the message, most likely yes, which isn't great news for the market, they are not done yet. neil: we like to think this could be a run-up, and intraday

movements, there's a end game. i don't see that but do you? >> to be simplistic, we need to have visibility on the end of fed tightening, before we put green lights out there, and the 2 and fro frustrating both the bulls and bears, volatile sidewise trading action. don't fight the fed's. good montreux. and a few minutes ago, what is the impact on the economy and that will take months to unfold. neil: would like to hear what jerome powell says, a guidepost for great activities, and winding trillions of dollars worth of treasury securities, mortgage-backed securities, everything but the kitchen sink. if he picks that up, and

interest rate hikes. >> absolutely. this is on unprecedented territory, never seen a balance sheet like this. conventional conversation, and you've got this other thing, monetary tightening from the balance sheet that is a wildcard. undoubtedly not positive. we will see how that unfolds. we don't know the impact because we don't have a playbook for that. neil: market rates have been backing up, a 2-year note, first time at that level since 2007, 10 years in and out of 15 year highs, is that overdone, what is the pay graphic?

>> the inflation rate, pick your number, the 10 year treasury, 3.5, doesn't sound like we are done seeing higher rates. we have a rally a few weeks ago, and 3% on the 10 year and i don't think we've seen high rates for the cycle. neil: what are your thoughts on people who look at a two year over 4%, in real terms to losing money, and i'm losing my shirt. something that has been guarantee of uncle sam than something that is no guarantee at all. what do you make, switch people stocks to bonds, used to be a foolish thought because you are getting nothing on fixed income investments. >> there is no alternative argument.

even cash, you have to think about those things until you see the ability of earnings to improve and we are going through the period where earnings estimates are cut. you can't count on one hand anymore how many visible companies are having a profit problem. we will see more of those, that is in front of us. we have to cancel some patients here. not trying to suggest sell your stocks. we had a lot of damage done but don't think you have to be a hero and pick a bottom yet. neil: we will pick it closely. bob doll on all of that. for those just tuning in, waiting on the federal reserve reaction right now to new york's attorney general suing donald trump and the trump organization including his children alleging they cooked the books, part of a 3-year

investigation, total of $250 million worth of abuses, without getting into the weeds, suffice it to say trump folks find this an enormous waste of time, the former president saying of the attorney general, the lawsuit is a witchhunt, accuses james of being a fraud, quoting exactly, this is coming from donald trump junior, keisha james doesn't care about the law, she's a damn activist, only cares about politics, the most recent polling her reelection race, now she's desperately trying to fill up the base with bs. eric trump says lotito james is not working for the attorney general's office but the dnc referring to the democrat national committee, and the newest poll tied with republican in new york states, seeing that as policy and we see that with a lot of folks who find it timing of this suspect but let's get a former

federal prosecutor. this is about a business and its operations and particularly real estate concern where operations can get a little murky, not necessarily legally but very involved, talking about valuations all over the world and liabilities that are sometimes hard to pin down and could be in the eye of the beholder but what do you think of this? >> the skepticism is understandably very high. miss james ran on a platform, to take down trump and seems to be delivering in time for elections. to some people that is suspicious and understandably so, he filed a detailed lawsuit and as defense attorney i can tell you any government case will be strongest the date is filed, and before anything is conducted in their.

more to be learned certainly with this, there significant movement, another headache for trump on the legal side. neil: latifa james's office, if we are tipping our political hand we have a funny way of doing it, chasing andrew cuomo out of office and now he is suing her and you have the former president of the united states arguing the same thing, don't know if you can or will sue her but you get the point they say they are being scrupulously fair. there is no way to know the way this is going but the timing again is curious. >> it is and miss james literally said the word she was planning on taking mr. trump down and the grandstanding is another cause for concern when there is something yet to be established by a court of law and the prosecutor's office have been notably silent on this and if the allegations are established as true, certainly that would

be significant civilly and criminally so there will be many defenses lodged, the bias and motive of miss james will be part of that and should be, as this is looked into but maybe this is not the biggest headache for mr. trump on the legal side but it is another thing to deal with. neil: can her office go so far as to say not only should you be banned from running a company but any new york company? >> that is a big question and she corrected herself in terms that the judge be removed from running any company in the state of new york. i don't think that is something that will be issued by the judge but there have been multiple remedies she says she's requesting based on this extensive fraudulent activity she claims she had homed in on over the last three years conducting this investigation. neil: thank you, if we hear

anything more from the state attorney general's office or trump himself we will keep you posted. a long way to go, a legal issue to resolve one way or the other and civil charges that have been filed, not criminal charges and recommitting such charges focusing on the irs's office to do just that but a long way from that and that is essentially what legal experts are telling us. in the meantime we are focusing on what is going on with the markets, waiting for those high interest rates to go higher but in this environment people taking matters into their own hands. in new york for example things have gotten so pricey that people are bolting for the sunnier skies of florida but not everyone because in this same city there's the penthouse on the market, $250 million. someone is going to buy that after this.

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>> families in florida, i am in new york. >> hey, powell. [shouting] >> what kind of idiots do you have working here? >> the finest in new york. stuart: new york still has that draw, the hollywood cachet, iconic series of movies and now of course the big draw is very expensive penthouse apartment with $250 million, getting into that in a second, but the flip side, new york post story talking about the great exodus of new yorkers leaving for a lower tax, lower crime, better weather environment of the sunshine state. let's get the latest.

my buddy has been following this for quite some time, ashley webster. ashley: i have indeed. according to research by the new york post a record-breaking number of new york residents switched drivers licenses to the sunshine state last month. how many? 5838 new yorkers made that switch in august, and year to date, and they handed over those new york licenses after moving south. a new annual record would be broken as well. we saw this trend begin when covid hit but there were predictions a slowdown may be reversed once the pandemic eased. apparently that is wrong. first it was the billionaires within the rich, and now the middle-class especially young parents concerned about the crime, and state of schools in

new york. in april, new york city mayor eric adams deployed digital billboards in florida trying to wound new yorkers back. turns out it was a waste of time, had no impact at all. it is not just new yorkers heading to florida. california set a new high relations exchanges with the state of florida last month, passing the 3000 mark, at 3059, the same according to new jersey. during the same thing which saw a record 3,259 license switchs. florida has received 321,881 out-of-state license trade requests so far in 2,022. by my very poor math skills that works out close to 1200 new residents moving into the state of florida every day, which is remarkable. as you point out, great weather, great beaches, low taxes, business friendly

environment, what is not to like is the question and the question, people get bored and go back hasn't panned out that way. >> people switching their residency. that number is off the charts. no offense to florida, that is what is going on in those are big numbers. neil: they are huge numbers, changing the mix of everything. it turned into a more red state, there was a fear with new yorkers coming and bringing politics with them but hasn't turned out that way. it is a red state, not a purple state at least for now. neil: they have a contest going on. thank you very much. my favorite guests, very optimistic through the fears we are going to hell in a hand basket with covid flying everywhere.

the found around ceo, been there, done that, everyone accounted for. he is doing very well including being a listing agent for the most expensive american property on the boards after $250 million, at the condo down the street. we could walk there together. stuart: 250 million. neil: do you price that? i know a lot, 50, 60, 70, what made this one many times that. >> the highest residential on the planet. the highest private ballroom, the highest residential terrorist in the world. a lot of firsts. >> the building is 1550, it sits 16 feet in the air.

on that terrorists, you're the same level of helicopters. i've never seen anything like it. first time i walked into the apartment my eyes went up like this. i am a broker but how do you put it together? there are a lot more people who can afford it, owned on the market a couple days ago. really busy week with it already. people flying in. all of the this. if we don't know who you are you show it. it is almost 18,000 ft. in the air, three floor sent a building with the most luxurious amenities i have ever seen, two swimming pools, 100 for private clubs, the reason people are paying. neil: are they foreigners? even with all of these expenses so recently.

>> it is a mixture. a lot of domestic interest as well. for all talk about florida we do a lot of business, significant amount of listings. neil: big price in miami. >> we have a listing in miami, one hundred million dollars, 250 feet on the sand, pretty incredible, we do a lot of 9 figure deals in south florida past two years. a lot of people are in new york, not a lot of people coming back to new york, a lot of stats everyone is moving but those are drivers licenses, people who are saying i will stick around and figure out the snowbird thing and declare residency. i need to be in new york for the fun stuff, i need the energy. neil: drivers licenses -- let me get your take on where this goes, it is not the means but sort of the collateral news.

as that suffers and we see rates go up, the pool of those buyers, potential buyers. >> if you are a homebuyer you marry the home, you dig the rate. 14 years of very low rates, people could really afford them. people can now afford the rates now. if we get 79% territory it's a different ballgame. where we are today, if you are qualified, not giving stated income loans left and right. neil: so many say $100 million property, most often, they are plunking down cash. need proof of that. i can handle this, need proof.

>> we've done large deals where if you have good banking relationship, clients have a significant amount of money and are carrying the monthly payment, years ago, there was a mansion, got a mortgage on it, multitude of $250,000 because he can afford it. >> there are condo association fees. >> combined monthly common charges for that building and real estate taxes are a little below $80,000 a month. so you want to go? what time do you get off work? neil: the world seems to be following and saying it will continue indefinitely. do you worry, the florida market as well better than this market that it is long in the tooth, eventually it has to

correct, doesn't have to be crash but it has to correct. >> i've seen no signs that point to a crash like we saw in 2008-2009. anyone that is borrowing to purchase a home is incredibly well qualified. going to the mortgage process or refinance process it is painful. neil: a lot of people, of last couple years has it happened. numbers are down, a false positive. it was inflated from this covid run up. this year compared to 2,019 that is what we look at. near average homes, contracts are up 16% in 2,019, the last normal, prime deals 10 million above. as of yesterday 30% higher than we were year over year so that

is a good indication people are looking to buy some rates and say the fed is taking action, finally doing their job. neil: they overdo it. to we fear that? >> the mortgage business is a big business and a lot of players at work keeping things in place. neil: let me ask about new york besides covid, kind of forcing us here. the crime issue is a big one. >> and i think there's a lot of pressure on mayor adams to get the act together and bring more peace officers. hopefully he does. it is an issue for some people but there's a lot of crime everywhere, not just new york, we talk about a lot, there is crime in portland, crime in los angeles, a lot of customers moving from california. i had a client send me a video that said i love the beach, i

love everything, guy walking by with a machete, they are not on the beach. okay. i'm here when you are ready. neil: what you deal with, when someone can afford it or whatever, do they try to get the commission? >> no. that is a fair point. neil: that is what you are saying. >> part of our business is high net worth divisions, purchasing or selling a home $10 million plus, complete service for you. at the end of the day i am dealing with people who are paid commissions that are much higher than we make in real estate and they understand. you would be surprised. neil: the lowest of commissions. that is in a lot of countries. >> you have billions of dollars and made it and venture capital -- these are big numbers we are talking about.

i'm just a lowly -- neil: this is ryan's crowd. thank you very much. let us know. >> i will be back. >> just how much. we have a lot more, the dow 89 points, waiting for the federal reserve, to hike interest rates again. we will get a handle on this. stay with us.

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neil: two prominent floridians for the highest office in the land, you heard about lawsuits being filed against florida governor ron desantis in the face of flying migrants to martha's vineyard, donald trump dealing with a lawsuit right now by the attorney general of

new york state alleging his company, the trump organization artificially and deliberately inflated prices and assets over many years in this is something she would recommend file charges against him down the road the could become criminal charges but not as yet. these are iconic figures in the republican party, the political fallout here, if you are the governor and you are seeing, as now, embroiled the former president, do you think i might have a runway clear or is he having enough trouble dealing with the migrant crisis and the boomerang how he handled the martha's vineyard thing. >> quite the opposite, because lakisha's suit, gives a perverse incentive to run for president again.

regardless of the merits of the suit, i'm not saying morally anyone should be above the law, but politically speaking in terms of pure self-interest, it benefits trump to be president, so long as he is continually under this prosecutorial legal fire because of the protections being president conveys. we've seen established, that he had immunity when he was president, and unfortunately i don't think trump is concerned about the merits of the suit in so much that he could be protecting himself, that makes the lame desantis wants is more perky. in terms of the suit against desantis i looked at it briefly, the desantis camp states they had migrants wave over liability, provided in english and spanish, contracts the migrants signed stating

they were going to massachusetts providing immunity to desantis. of these bases are covered, the desantis camp says i don't see this having legs, politically this couldn't work out better for him. we are on day 5 of the 3 count which could send 50 migrants to martha's vineyard, 8000 migrants, and -- neil: you get into the political nature, not hundreds of thousands of migrants shipped all over the country. no one said anything about that, where they were going so it does have that political feel to it administered the same about the latest charges against donald trump, in both cases i wonder if it rallies fans to their respective base.

>> as much as these cases are legal cases, they are politically speaking cases against the media, against political forces a lot of republican base, a lot of the republican base has become antagonistic to. trump can always say this started from a witchhunt but it began with the stormy daniels case, that is how it got referred all the way to muller who throws it to new york and james is going forward with and trump can point to the fact that james campaigned on finding a crime and at the end of the day she couldn't pursue criminal charges, she is pursuing civil. it is a victory for trump, this is all relative. i don't think anyone would want to be sued but in terms of what it could be, with desantis he gets to point out, nearly 750 migrants have died at the border this year ends when you

look at 1998 through 2,020 the historic average was 350 migrant fatalities per year. we are more than double that this year and the media is obsessed with 50 migrants send to martha's vineyard, 50 migrant sent to a sanctuary city. the island of martha's vineyard telling me millionaires and billionaires left for the year that they couldn't open up their doors. neil: just be consistent, if you are going to rage about this you should rage about hundreds of thousands under the biden administration, shipped all over the country and many of them aware there were going as well. great catching up with you, thank you. after this.

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that is the plan with your grade or 3-quarter point hike, baked into the credit cake. the third such increase. when this started we were at 0% interest rates, we can end your at 4%. is the fed overdoing it? let's ask former federal reserve board governor economics professor, randall, you think they are doing a pretty good job and that's the gist of it? >> they are behind the curve, by december they were talking about inflation being transitory, but given they finally pivot, they've got to move because inflation expectations get too high. a situation where time inflation was this high they were double-digit levels. neil: when you look at that,

people focus on what jerome powell says, whether there were more such hikes to come and why that multi trillion dollar balance sheet. >> it is pretty much baked into the cake, the path going forward, what do they forecast where interest rates are at the end of this year and next year? they are going to be in the 40s by the end of this year but more hikes, 50 basis points the next two meetings and hike a little bit more as inflation comes down but then hold 2,023 because they need to make sure interest rate stays above the inflation. neil: thank you, the economics professor, to have that. when i was doing that.

susan lee taking a look, some things that jeffrey katzenberg is up to. that is a blast from the past. >> i caught up with jeffrey katzenberg who has a new security company worth $2 billion and he told me higher rates affect everybody. >> i think everybody rules in their belt, when you have uncertainty, and what it signals over the next 6 months, interest rates have a huge impact, in an environment where the cost of money is 0. a very long time so that flooded the market with a lot of capital looking good for opportunity and overheated the marketplace but we are in for a correction.

>> the new cybersecurity company protects your presence online for $15 a month, the first startup after -- he was honest with us what a failure that wasn't how it affected him. >> peaks and valleys. >> the cultures of silicon valley and hollywood could not be more different. in hollywood, when you fail, in front of the camera, behind the camera, it is a cruel, public humiliation, really hurts. silicon valley, you take a swing, you miss, it is like get up to bat again. susan: i asked what he thought of that elon musk twitter deal. >> with that genius comes a little bit of craziness. i am sure -- i haven't talked to him about it personally but i'm confident there was a

moment in time he looked at twitter and said i can make this better. and for that moment, have that ambition and passion and woke up and i am not so sure. i think that is where we are today. susan: with $2 billion, not increasing prices in an inflationary time and no ipo because they said that doors closed. neil: amazing, jeffrey katzenberg, the powers that be. there we go. thank you. a good sense of humor. i always like that, just step back. all right. what is going on? celebrating now. what is going to be another interest rate hike, we will see after this. ♪ ♪

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from the most innovative company. bring on today with comcast business. powering possibilities. (fisher investments) in this market, you'll find fisher investments is different than other money managers. (other money manager) different how? aren't we all just looking for the hottest stocks? (fisher investments) nope. we use diversified strategies to position our client's portfolios for their long-term goals. (other money manager) but you still sell investments that generate high commissions for you, right? (fisher investments) no, we don't sell commission products. we're a fiduciary, obligated to act in our client's best interest. (other money manager) so when do you make more money, only when your clients make more money? (fisher investments) yep. we do better when our clients do better. at fisher investments, we're clearly different.

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you don't focus much on politicians in washington, not worried things are exploding abroad, doesn't sound like it. >> the biggest concern is the biggest concern is the fed which in my opinion and on your show criticized the fed so many times, don't believe they are competent or know what they are doing and i don't believe they know how to find inflation correctly and i think they are likely to keep doing stupid stuff. of the 20 can we get a soft landing doing what we are doing? the market against all odds and we avoid a recession, what do you think? >> you can't keep spending and bring down inflation. here's what i think. i think we are not going to be able to bring an interest rate to a high enough level for good real return to holders of credit. and without causing a

contraction in economic activity. neil: your expectations this week and what the fed does. >> buffett's tele-grading -- telegraphing shutting down basis points. it would be shocking to the market. some percentage of people in the market, 14% think it might be 100 basis points, they wouldn't want to shop of a market that way so if they were going to do that, they would have telegraphed it by now. neil: when billionaires pilon, critical of the way we are in the position we are in now, let's get the read from mitch rochelle and mainstreet asset manager cio and begin with what these gentlemen were saying. not much faith in the federal reserve, don't want to rattle for markets. it is late for that, but what do you think? >> it is an argument. when you look at when the fed releases their projections,

when they look at their future inflationary and -- and they are going to do that, for two weeks, this is the quarterly summary, they have been severely wronged and revising those projections from march to june and we expect another big revision in september. i agree they have been wrong about where we are going, very late to the game and there is a real risk. we are in a technical recession already, we had two quarters of gdp contraction. i think it is a very real risk and right now it is more likely we will end up with some period of pain versus being able to thread the needle as everybody likes to stay. neil: talking to an economist that was critical of president

biden, dismissing inflation threat also saying we are not in a recession. the american people will tell you a recession is a recession and your words are hardly helping. having said that where do you think these hikes are taking us? we have yet to see them get a handle on the inflation they are supposedly addressing. >> they started by saying it is transitory. not just the fed but former chairwoman yellen, transitory is transitory. that is a head in the sand strategy if i have ever seen one. by raising interest rates you increase the cost of credit, but trying to choke off the demand side of the economy. the demand side of the economy is dealing with this to some degree. you and i said this over and over again, the joke on inflation is inflation itself. they say i'm not saying that

anymore. they are pretty resilient. certain segments of the economy are shaking this off like it is nothing, the fed likes to do its job by itself, what choice do they have, to raise rates and grind down the demand on the economy. it is unfair. a soft landing threading the needle, all those things, virtually impossible to do that because it is counterintuitive. if you choke off the demand on the economy which is the consumer, and economy driven by the consumer by raising interest rates how can you do that softly? doesn't make sense when we've done three consecutive raises of 75 basis points, the bond market is sending a message that this will go on for a while. neil: you and i -- >> i watched that fight. neil: that is it.

you mentioned something interesting, the argument, you want to get if your goal is to get back the 2% inflation are they looking at that? 8. 5%. would you have to go to 8. 5% or do you hope the rate hikes you are seeing eventually bring that so you don't have to go that far? >> you meet in the middle, inflation comes down. neil: significant delay. >> one of the problems, these hikes often aren't forecast to take effect for 9 to 12 months so that is part of the difficulty. neil: next march before we see any -- the risk of overdoing it. >> on top of that we have additional government spending, another trillion of treasuries out there. quantitative tightening which is half a trillion, there is a lot. neil: the tapering, putting

trillions back on. >> it is three times the amount of treasuries on the market, there are a lot of bonds for sale pushing rates even higher if you push those prices down. >> right now, look at, erin and i were talking about this in the green room. the one year treasury is 4.05. neil: wow. >> that is the one year treasury. it gets to a point. go to a bank they're giving 45 basis points for certificate of deposit. investors say this is looking pretty attractive. i don't know what the next year will hold, if i put money in, guarranty get 4% for a year that is pretty compelling. money market funds became really popular. we'll date ourselves, neil, i remember you were getting 16% in

the money markets. money was doubling very quickly. if the short end of the curve goes wild as a result it changes investor behavior. neil: mitch, final word. erin, thank you. some of the bankers are saying paltry bank accounts they could easily go up another third of a point. we'll hear from the federal reserve. charles payne continues. charles. charles: neil, thank you very much, my friend. good afternoon, everyone, i'm charles payne this is "making money." the moment you've been waiting for, investors anxiously await the fed decision more importantly jay powell's press conference. while the street expects another 75 basis points it will be an update on their summary of economic projections that will tell us a lot. powell laid it on thick at jackson hole. wilt he give us a glimmer of hope for those looking fora pivot or will he be upset the market is strong?

i have a powerful line up. i have a strong line up. today's theme is john steinbeck classic "of mice and men." p.o.w. not only powerful person making news today. vladmir putin taking sabre-rattling to a whole new level and president guide speaking at the u.n. it's a huge day. i want to go to straight to edward lawrence live at federal reserve. reporter: so the federal reserve raised interest rates 3/4 of a percentage point this will be the third time in a row that happened from the federal reserve from a fed chairman likes to go 25 basis points at a time. the supply and demand imbalance lanes receipted to the pandemic higher food prices, broader pandemic pressures. the invasion of ukraine putting upward pressure according to federal reserve but did not messenger the chinese lockdowns. they downgrade the