stuart: chatting away our method of dancing, liz he suggested i was jiveing. very true. it is 10:00 eastern. the money, the dow is up 118 points, 3:00, 4:00, down 300

points, did up 120 points, the 10 year treasury yield all over the place. 4:00 this morning, four. 5%. right now is $3.84. to your treasury yield still holding above 4%. oil still under $18,000. important news from the real estate industry, latest on pending home sales. lauren: down 88.4, from last august down 24.2%. unlike yesterday home sales rise 28%, 29%, pending home sales fell more than expected. stuart: back to the stock market and bring in eddie

ghabour who appears to have gotten it right. >> don't think we will hit bottom until the first half of the year. the only thing that will change is force. we've never seen a dynamic like this before where the dollar is staying strong. rates have doubled for mortgage rates. real estate prices have to come in 20%. people think earnings will grow next year. they will be surprised how bad earnings are, fourth quarter and first quarter next year. as long as the fed continues to tighten into this massive slow down, the worst-case scenario is playing out. very few places to hide, we have a huge cash position for clients and i think for those who play this right you have a buying opportunity of a lifetime next year in the first

half because i think people are saying how much worse could it get and they buy these dips and it has been the wrong play all year and my open you and, it will continue to be the wrong play. stuart: until the end of the year, what are you staying away from? stocks you wouldn't touch with a 10 foot pole? >> we would stay away from growth, technology, strategy, we have 0 exposure. it has been that way since january, growth is slowing, slowing in a big way, they will look at the growth stop and say mag a names, down 30% but you are comparing it to an all-time high. it is not down fair value yet so these growth stocks if it continues to decelerate, in my opinion will make multi-lows

month after month after month, still get that but lower lows as it has been all year long. stuart: we understand what you're saying, very clean-cut and we like it that way. eddie ghabour. apple is moving down 3.8%. lauren: heavily weighted in the dow and the s&p, amazing markets are down even more, with the bombshell report they don't plan to increase production of the new iphone is much as thought, they are sticking with the original plan. stuart: that is a big deal, down 581. eli lilly -- the new all-time is drug. lauren: up 7% because the drug is reigniting hope that by targeting a particular protein,

that is effective in slowing the progression of alzheimer's and brain disease and eli lilly, they hope this is a breakthrough and they will lift all those, all companies that have traded. stuart: it was up 40%, extraordinary move. lauren: they are up 3.4%, laying off 9% of their workforce, part of a major restructuring plan. a one flight attendants at united picketed over a dozen airports yesterday. the issue? lauren: 14 airports, blaming management for operational disruptions that happen over and over again and they mess up not only flight attendant schedules but then they deal with passengers who are annoyed and it is not things that you can't budget for but they cited a recent example that united failed to inspect as they were supposed to the boeing jets and had to cancel flights. just forgot.

didn't do it and they say stuff like that for management is not acceptable. stuart: of lesser importance is the story. virgin atlantic is scrapping their gendered uniforms and damning pronoun badges for crewmembers and customers. lauren: this pin above your name tag with the pronoun you want to be known, she and her. they are switching the uniform so a man can wear a woman's uniform or vice versa or whatever you want as long as you feel comfortable in your own skin. stuart: do you have any feelings on this? lauren: i wonder if this helps them get more people to sign up because everybody is claiming staffing shortages. stuart: walking a mile away from it. now this. anyone who owns stock is feeling the pain. the rich who own a lot of stock

are feeling intense pain. top one% of income earners lost $5 trillion in stock market this year,.tab 10% lost 8 trillion. there's a political angle to this. the rich tend to vote democrat. we have a wealthy who did well under the hated donald trump losing their shirts under biden. rich are no longer getting richer. their share of the nation's wealth is following. you wonder if democrats can hold onto wealthy voters. come down the income scale a little, a lot of people i know looking at their 401(k)s. your pension money is down 20, 30% unless you are savvy investor. 401(k)s went up under trump and he often boasted about it and down under biden this is the stock market doesn't reflect the state of the economy which as you know is still strong.

in november's election the market selloff should be a big issue. voters want to know who is responsible for the wealth destruction. democrats have a hard time blaming trump and republicans have an easy target in biden's failed policies. take a look at this op-ed. biden thinks the stock market doesn't matter. here is what he doesn't get. liz peake wrote that. a fierce critic of president biden with us this morning. what doesn't he get? lauren: he doesn't understand country is getting poor and they don't like it and influences the economy. that's a problem for biden. the stock market is hurting all of us for sure but also impacts consumer sentiment. what is consumer sentiment important for? it drives spending, the economy and also the case wealthier people in america, the top half control much more of spending than the bottom half, within

reason but in particular, industries like entertainment and retail incredibly influential, when the wealthy get hit because their net worth goes down they pulled in their reins and lots of it is like travel, entertainment take a hit and less jobs. stuart: don't remember wall street and the stock market playing a role with a decline like this, it is a political issue 6 weeks from now. this summer when biden's approval ratings began to inch up a little bit, that coincided with the market rebounding with selloff in the spring. that's not a coincidence. yesterday we had a read better-than-expected on consumer sentiment, the cutoff date for the survey was the week before the fed came out with their latest cut and the market started to swoon again. i will guarantee the next read up in consumer sentiment is negative, a down check because the market selloff will affect the mood of the nation. when president biden talked about the economy being strong most people don't think that's

true anymore and he looks foolish saying it but also looks really stupid saying the stock market doesn't matter. stuart: got inflation under control when you don't. stuart: republicans are hoping their tough on crime stance helps win over suburban women and upset over rove versus wade. >> i hope that is true and polling shows it through, the last washington post poll shows crime topped abortion in terms of importance people were giving it but what is important to suburban women, education, interestingly a higher ranked concern for voters, either crime or abortion and republicans are missing that if they don't talk about themes that elected glenn youngerkin. education is owned by republicans. democrats paul better on this because they spend more money on education, republicans have to make the point they are not

doing a good job and republicans have answers because parents care about that. stuart: thanks for joining us, see you soon. the new york times could sizing republicans over there messaging on crime. lauren: new ads are divisive and use race to stoke fear. here's the quote. republicans are intensifying their focus on crime and public safety, strategy seeks to capitalize on some voters fears about safety, with deceptive or racially divisive messaging. you would see these gop ads that hit key senate races in ohio, pennsylvania and wisconsin and the suburbs. why the suburbs? those are areas there has been a big shift from republican or independent party to democrats and poll after poll republicans vote better when it comes to crime and safety so that is where they are spending money and democrats spinning their money to get those suburban

women on abortion ads. stuart: i will move on. is that okay? house democrats introduced the long-awaited bill that bans lawmakers and judges from trading stocks. all over it. senator manchin cooled his energy permitting bill from government funding, looks like the greens won, america lost. i get into it with senator john thune. the strategic petroleum reserve at the lowest level since 1984 yet democrats want to drain it even more for electric vehicle technology. extraordinary thing. we've got the report next. ♪ ♪

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1-800-217-3217. that's 1-800-217-3217. stuart: we don't have the volatility we were expecting. the dow is up 38 points, the nasdaq is down 12 points. not much price movement so far today. the strategic petroleum reserve at the lowest level in four decades. democrats want to drain it even more to fund electric vehicle infrastructure. edward lawrence, how does that work? >> reporter: democrats introduced a bill called by loiselle high in the house. it creates a government for-profit business using the

newly designated 350 million barrel section of the for strategic petroleum reserve. the idea to buy oil barrels at $60 a barrel and sell those barrels on the market when price reaches $90 a barrel. money made would fund electric car infrastructure project into new program that increases crude oil processing. all of this is at the lowest level in 37 years. >> is there concern the reserve is not high enough to handle this emergency and other hurricanes? >> i don't have any concerns at this point that we will have the ability to handle the fuel needs we will need in florida. we will assess to see what the impacts are and make sure we are putting measures in place to support any gaps. >> reporter: they will reassess after hurricane ian comes through florida. the president is a cheerleader for his electric approach

turning the transition, what he wants to make. >> we are making progress helping folks, lowering healthcare costs is a big part of progress we are making on inflation, not just gasoline prices and other products. that is why i'm optimistic about america's future. >> the american petroleum institute says the us isn't ready for this all or nothing approach to this transition. stuart: i am dying to see democrat party act as oil traders. i would love to see that. actually i would hate it. >> if they have their way oil will not be around so don't know how this will work. stuart: you make too much sense. senator joe manchin has pooled his permitting bill from the sending package. senator john thune joins me now. this is a big win for the greens at a loss for america,

do you see it that way? >> we don't. we think there's a better way to do this. manchin reforms were very limited and in many ways sort of moved us away from what we were trying to accomplish in true meaningful permitting reform so there's an effort on the way now. joe manchin has incorporated, his foe senator from west virginiait 50 republican cosponsors, they can find a path forward for equal permitting reform, the manchin bill did not get is -- stuart: if republicans do retake the house and the senate, what can you do with a massive tax-and-spend bill? can you reverse any of it? >> my hope would be if we get

the majority where we prioritize the biden agenda items, clearly we've got an economy that is wobbly, 40-year high inflation, energy crisis in this country, border crisis in this country, we are going to have to start from ground 0 and do what we can to reverse the harm that has been done through massive spending bills and steer point the 87,000 new employees at the irs is one area where republican congress and power of of the person appropriations process through the confirmation process will leverage and get the administration to go back on these huge new spending programs they started as a result of those big spending bills, we are exercising the powers we have and dealing with a democrat president with a veto and we will use the leverage we have. stuart: this is a financial program, looking at the economy. don't think many people want to

go into a recession and raise taxes. that is a disaster. >> it would be. the thing we want to do is make permanent the tax law, provisions expiring, and the approach to regulation, heavy hand of government by this administration needs to replace with a lighter touch and let's get the incentives on investment to increase supply in our economy and hopefully that will equalize with demand and we can see inflation but as of right now it is a 5 alarm crisis and we've got to take the house and the senate and turnaround. stuart: at this moment are you confident you will take the house and the senate? >> i am. i think people at the end of the day, pocketbook voters democrats try to change and

distract in other areas but if you look at national security, economic security, energy security that's the basket of issues i think the american people are focused on when they vote, very clear the contrast between the two visions for the future of this country. we need a different vision good for the economy and energy security, good for national security and the republicans will provide that and i think the american people get that. they've seen enough of this administered in's policies and the results of that and are ready for change so i am hopeful, i am confident and we will get it done. a 16 weeks to go to those elections and see how it turns out. thank you for being with us. house democrats have introduced a bill to ban lawmakers from trading stocks. that is a big word, ban from trading stocks. lauren: it ban lawmakers, spouses, children, senior staffers and judges from trading and owning securities,

commodities and crypto currency. you can divest, so your holdings or place it in a blind trust. if you don't and it is found out, you are fine, that fine is made public so you have public what you'll at that point. mutual funds are excluded, treasury bills are excluded. if house lawmakers -- they have to wait until after the midterms because they are out campaigning. these are the legislative days while they are in dc. the one probably won't get a vote on this. not until october. lauren: i would say november or december. stuart: thanks very much. op-ed in the washington post claims if republicans win in november they will seek revenge with ginned up investigations against democrats. is that what voters want? i asked martha mccallum next our. mortgage rates have doubled this year. some economists say 7% mortgages are just around the corner. our real estate guy mitch

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stuart: markets are showing green now all over the place. now the dow is up 200 points and the nasdaq up 63. we will see how we close. lauren is with me and start with the movers and netflix. lauren: an upgrade of atlantic equity to overlay price target at 283, ad supported tier that will generate average revenue per user per month, $26, 3 times the rival services. stuart: there is a big one. lauren: up 36% today because of their promising is on armors the mashed alzheimer's drug. prior to that 70% move, acumen up 67%. they also have drugs that target alzheimer's and use

similar technology. a rising tide left all boats. lauren: that is changed the equation on all timers. stuart: a big deal. lauren: they are competing with amazon and walmart by launching third-party marketplace, third-party sellers, 400 brands on their side so establishing relationships. stuart: a long time since we saw a department store chain go up 3.5%. at $300,000 mortgage when rates were at 3% would have cost $1264 a month, rates came up to 6. 5% and you are paying one thousand $906 a month, up $632 a month that do the math. mitch rochelle is here, our real estate guy. how do you house prices sliding

when you have numbers like that? >> it is really hard. when mortgage rates were in the 5s it wasn't so bad. when they crushed 6 it was a flash crash in mortgage prices, if you look at the bond market looks like we are heading for 7 or 8. that is the breaking point where a buyer says i can't afford it. you layer that with the fact that they may have money invested someplace or have 401(k) balance and the wealth effect, is where we are right now with major inflation. stuart: i saw other numbers, 3% mortgages in march, 6% in september, that means you need 40% more income to qualify to get into a house these days and that happened in 5 months. >> even the real wages are going up the fact of the matter

is because of inflation you have other things biting at that income. if you are a lending institution underwriting, freddie may -- fanny and freddie they will start being more conservative with underwriting standards because the financial crisis, not going to repeat that. they will start requiring more downpayments. stuart: what is stop house prices falling 10% to 20%? >> 10 is where we are, talking about that last week, but 20 becomes a function of supply and demand. if rents continue to go up the way they have been going up i think there's a point where they will buy rent decision and that is the thing that keeps housing prices from going and we have so little supply. the fact of the matter is you have people putting their homes on the market.

if they are worried where they are moving next and opt not to put their homes on the market and stay at a 3 month supply of housing that will keep the floor in the housing market. stuart: tell me about gulf coast property in florida, they have a storm surge that may cause serious damage to homes on the coastline. does that affect their future value? when ian has washed through and you are over it but you still have the danger of hurricanes in the future and storm surge today and tomorrow maybe does that affect home prices? >> there is a meme floating around that said attention people who bought homes in florida the last two years, this is initiation week. there hasn't been a real storm in south florida since 2017. a lot of people who bought in the last couple years have sort of been riding the wave and it

hasn't been so bad but what happened last year in the housing market last summer, when the first named storm, e or f, all of a sudden in july the housing market froze for three weeks because people from the northeast said i forgot about the storm risk. i think in the two years that follow a big storm there's apprehension of people going down there because they forgot this is a reality in florida. i am on the east coast, you have a place on the west coast. for the last week i've been on the phone every day with people trying to batten down the hatches on the house. it does chill the housing market in south florida in the near term. stuart: good stuff. i want to to come up with this story. lumber prices are way down. 60%. lauren: they reached astronomical levels. when you look at lumber prices, that is a sign of a severe

slowdown in the housing market because there's less demand, but riddle me this which i need cedar shingle, but the first bunch and 2,019 at one hundred $60 a box. this year a few months ago $340 a month. this week, $600 a box. how did it go from 160, 340, to 600? stuart: i cannot figure that one out. i'm a tree farmer and can't understand that. lauren: i need to call the supplier who sold it to me. stuart: bought it from me made the. how many homes are at risk of damage in the storm? lauren: 1.04 million homes at risk of damage and the cost to repair that is estimated by -- $260 billion. to update you on the power situation, right now in florida 193,000 are without power. this is going to be a tough few days down south.

stuart: thanks very much, move on. politico under fire for falsely claiming florida's governor desantis hasn't faced the challenge of a hurricane since becoming governor. how his office responded to the headline. we are tracking her akkadian, the i of the storm set to hit fort myers or close to it in just a few hours, live report from their next. ♪ go. go green. go wind turbines. go gorgeous reliable grid. go emerson software. go science people. go breakthrough meds and safe science.

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stuart: where are we now? it changes rapidly. dollars up 234 points, the nasdaq is up 70, all over the place. we are tracking ian's every move. it is such to make landfall in fort myers a couple hours from now. robert ray is there.

come on in and describe what it is like where you are. okay. robert, if you can hear me i want you to describe what conditions are like right now. >> am i here or no? stuart: i will change the subject for a second. we got ashley with us. is he? okay. we can go back to robert ray. if you can hear me, let me rephrase the question. what is it like and what it is going to be like in a couple hours? >> reporter: in fort myers the wind is coming in hard. we are on fort myers beach and had to evacuate because of the storm surge beginning to come in. you can hear it whistling through this area. the wind and rain. the and flow as we are waiting

this to intensify here as hurricane ian is moving offshore at this point, expected to lose power in this area absolutely for sure and the storm surge could come in as far as downtown fort myers which is 12 miles from the coastline. that is the issue right now as we stand here. we try to stay down and couldn't hunker down any longer, no high ground for vehicles, not safe to be there by any means. we evacuated. i cannot hear you, i have no communication, my apologize, things are unraveling a bit here. you can see it here in fort myers, take a look over there at the trees blowing like that. a tough situation here. stuart: we hear you even though you can't hear us, great report. we will be back to you later, watch out. there is a political fight in

florida over hurricanes. politico says governor desantis has not faced the challenge of a hurricane before. i don't think that is true. lauren: it is not true and it is distasteful. desantis's office is responding to this politico story by matt dixon saying it is plain wrong. governor desantis was in office during hurricane sally two years ago and call the article distasteful. this is what matt dixon wrote. no elected official wishes for major natural disaster, hurricanes offer almost unlimited access to free national media. a huge boost to any governor's political fortunes. stuart: what a cheap shot. lauren: it was a cheap shot. ron desantis was on sean hannity's show last night and had a great conversation with president biden, communicate it will and got what he needed. time for politics and it is not than. we when i will leave it at that. politico do anything to discredit a republican,

anything, doesn't matter what they say. back to hurricane ian, it is approaching fort myers, winds clocked at one hundred 55 miles an hour, still category 4. of it goes one hundred 57 miles an hour is category 5, attorney general of the great state of florida ashley movie joins me now. if you order an investigation, and evacuation and people don't leave, what is your response ability? >> it is frustrating i can tell you, being in this position, working closely with law enforcement over the years. we encourage people to leave if they are in those evacuation zones. not just for their own safety. that is important, we prioritize floridians safety but often times first responders have to go in when called if there is an emergency situation and put their own lives on the line to save floridians, can't tell you how many discussions i have had with law enforcement over the years. everything in their instinct wants to rush out and help

people so we ask people to keep in mind those that have to respond if there is an emergency situation and evacuate although as you noted the i of the storm is pushing closer and closer to the coast of florida and time for evacuation is running out which governor desantis has said you need to hunker down and take all precautions at this point. in florida we are used to preparing. we have been preparing all weekend, leading into today. i know floridians are ready but i encourage everyone to stay safe and hunker down and keep in mind community members, first responders, everyone wants to help so do your part to protect yourself and your family. of the one president biden stuart: president biden says he doesn't want oil and gas companies to use the hurricane as an excuse to raise prices. will he jump in and claim

credit for knocking out price gouging? >> my agency is attorney general has been working daily since we declared a state of emergency last week, we have rapid response teams warning people, individuals, organizations do not use this emergency to jack up prices, we will ensure that florida laws are enforced. i can tell you it is easy for folks to come in and start talking about everything they are doing and there are boots on the ground to patrol this type of behavior and these bad actors and we will keep doing that to ensure floridians are not victimized during a time of emergency. stuart: do you need to upgrade florida's infrastructure? >> florida is used to facing these storms but what is making us cautious about this one, this could be one of the top five storms ever to hit the united states. the eye of the storm is

particularly concerning. it is it is so wide. there were reports of 75 miles wide compared to charlie that dwarfs hurricane charley in size. this will be a test but i know governor desantis has been working day and night. i see him. he's holding up so well, his energy is focused. he's working with all our agencies that are insuring we can get in immediately after the storm, ensure that our infrastructure is safe to travel on before we allow those to reopen. everyone's mission whether is my energy or the attorney general's office or law enforcement or emergency management agency, everybody's mission, it adjusts after the storm hits after the recovery insuring folks can get back to their lives and safety and so that will be a major part of what we do in the aftermath of the storm and this will be a test. stuart: our hearts go out to

all floridians because hurricane of this magnitude is terrifying. ashley moody, attorney general of the state of florida. let's change the subject. russia denies reports they sabotaged the nordstream pipeline, general jack keane deals with that in the next hour. new videos already showing hurricane ian's power bringing devastating flooding to florida. fema is using the waffle house index to measure the severity of hurricanes for years. how severe will it be? i will ask the ceo of waffle house next. ♪ you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire

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stuart: look at that. the dow industrials are close to 300 points, nasdaq up 77. the rally we've seen the last few minute has to do with the 10 year treasury which started early this morning at 405 it is now 3.80%. that is the movement in the bond market you rarely see. investors of stocks like it. there is this.

fema, federal emergency management administration has been using the waffle house index to measure the severity of hurricanes for years. expand what this index is. lauren: it measures the severity of of the storm since 2004. it is green, the restaurant has power, minimal if any damage. yellow, limited menu, no power or generator power, some damage, and red, closed, severe damage, severe flooding, not in good shape. waffle house has over 100 locations in florida. stuart: therefore we should bring in the chief executive of waffle house who joins us now on the phone. is this good pr for you to have this index or bad pr because it draws attention to waffle house in the middle of a hurricane? >> we don't think of it from a pr standpoint. we are trying to make sure our people are safe and doing what

we can to help. stuart: why does fema use you? >> we got back open faster than anybody else and struggling to get open, really going to be a challenge. stuart: who's in charge of changing the index measure? is it you? the ceo? your local manager? >> we have decentralized all the markets making the fall around there. we help them make decisions that we make the best decisions we can from close to the action. stuart: that will be from naples in the south of florida all the way to tampa, all those places are closed? >> between naples and bradenton we are closed and we have a

couple -- many open around tampa as well. we will play that by ear as it goes on. stuart: what is your insurance position like? >> our insurance, all of us out here trying to take care of everybody. stuart: good for you. we are self insured. stuart: we got it. thanks for being with us. congratulations on being a man with the index in the middle of a hurricane, not sure if that is good or bad but good to have you on the show. >> thank you. stuart: tough it out. still had. the governor of new hampshire, chris sununu, martha maccallum and four times general jack keane all coming up. in in 1970s, stocks went nowhere. i know because i with you. dead flat for a decade. problems back then similar to what we have now, inflation, rising rates.

hard to see what will get us out of this mess. that is "my take". we will get into it after this. ♪ ♪ another busy day? of course - you're a cio in 2022. but you're ready. because you've got the next generation in global secure networking from comcast business. with fully integrated security solutions all in one place. so you're covered. on-premise and in the cloud. you can run things the way you want - your team, ours or a mix of both. with the nation's largest ip converged network. from the most innovative company.

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>> this could be the mother of all bear markets. something could break. we are seeing that with the actions of the central bank. it could be lower. >> inflation is just as bad today as it was four months ago. what president biden has done makes no sense. americans are smarter than that. they look at the gas pump, he did it. >> don't think we will hit bottom until the first half of next year. the only thing that will change my mind is if the fed changes course. >> the next read on consumer sentiment will be a down tech because the market selloff will affect the mood of the nation. how could it not? ♪ stuart: good morning