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- [announcer] call aag, the country's number one reverse mortgage lender. - call the number on your screen. neil: a little after 1:00, a little buying going on, it is surprising on a day we have strong economic news showing wholesale inflation running along merrily and good news with the higher prices, people are buying chinos and all that stuff. maybe this strength shows everything is resilient.

having said that some smart money said don't buy it and don't be fooled, the more the fed keeps raising interest rates, overnight fed lending rate, we will fall another 20%. a view echoed by jamie dimon, cited the same figure but imf and world bank used the same news and after that, looking at cutting these market averages essentially in half so what to make of that, back with us. much more. >> jamie dimon's views have been dismissed. people like jamie dimon have been forecasting recession for months and despite giving a

bounce today look under the hood. we have 6 stocks with 52-week highs. the difficulty with losing the markets is getting back is so difficult. netflix down 64% and a 70% return to tech stocks that are very low. neil: the harder they fall the more they come back. how are you playing this? >> more aggressively. i'm seeing a lot of people load up that side of the boat that are too bearish. netflix down big. amazon, talk about pepsi and chitos, to buy off amazon, that is true. amazon is down 40% or 35%, that doesn't seem sensible but it is true and an opportunity. i should retract my job

application to jpmorgan because this is a guy who talked about significant upside in bitcoin in may and is a huge skeptic in september. you have him and others talking a 20% pool back in the markets, i am going to the other side because everyone is too bearish and negative. stuart: when you are talking about this in credit to you, you were in a rare crowd. now you are in the majority crowd overwhelmingly. >> seeing record levels of bearishness does set up a balance but a 15% balance, look at the 1970s, the market had a 50% gain. by 1976 it was below the previous level. i fear a situation like

microsoft with a 52-week low this week. in 2000, $70 a share, took 16 years to get to that level, two generations worries me about today's bellwethers. neil: do you think anything in the market is trying to get a handle or already has on the midterms? scott, to you and it is always dangerous that republicans take the house but if they take the senate as well could that be playing into this or not? >> you took the thoughts out of my mind. that's the key point. the administration has screwed up so many things economically, we've seen the talk about janet yellen, out of the administration post election, a switchover to when republicans

take congress we start this relationship and getting the economy back on its feet, letting the economy function because it wants to function, and difficulty and buying things. there's demand out there, and those supply chains. neil: what will change your mind? >> the long-term starts in the short term, some stocks some indication of a bull market. at this point the only stocks doing well are commodity related stocks like oil or major oil producers. look at inflation, it started in washington. it has to end in washington. the market players are looking for indication the policies in washington will bring inflation under control. this week biden's proclamation, the gig economy sending them

down, costs higher and pushing inflation, making it more expensive to do business and invest, not less expensive. neil: it is not darkest before the don. >> i don't think it is dark enough yet. >> might be 3 am versus 5:00 pm, 5 am is a good opportunity for long-term perspective. neil: long-term for you guys, but that is fine. i thank you both again. on capitol hill among politicians, democrats and republicans alike, not keen on what the federal reserve has been up to. and one aggressive hike after another. the very latest, chad, what is this about? >> reporter: lawmakers relish gagging up on the fed, they torched the federal reserve for how it handled the economy but inflation remains a problem but the fed has one very blunt tool

to address inflation, raising interest points. >> we have more work to do in combating inflation but there may be other factors. >> reporter: lawmakers argue the your might be worse than the illness as the economy spirals into recession and the fed continues to raise rates. with the creation of the fed by congress a century ago lawmakers seated some control of the economy. that means congress doesn't paul much response billion lawmakers use the fed as a foil when things are bad. >> delegating authority and being mad at that authority being used when they don't agree. that is politics. >> reporter: congress controls the purse strings, and federal spending on automatic pilot, entitlements, so congress gives away authority again.

>> numbers i have seen, $6 trillion into this economy and congress has another couple trillion mandatory spending and then we sit around and wonder why, with all this spending, we have inflation. it shouldn't be a mystery to any of us. >> reporter: congress could reclaim authority over the fed or federal spending if it wanted to but there is little appetite to pass a bill when it is easier to pass blame. neil: republican or democrat, without financial advice to the fed, you eat a salad. no one would diet. who is the fed to buy it coming from them? >> this is why congress ceded this authority. they want an independent arbiter and when i talk about 70%, it was only 30% of all federal spending congress

appropriates each year. everything is, medicare, medicaid, social security, debt service. neil: i would have you. smart guy with money. i would go with you. >> i will handle the salad. neil: i will do a beeline the prime rib. thank you very much. let's go to douglas holtz eakin and tammy reid, money that goes in and more going out, the former congressional budget office director of american action forum. to make a pretty serious and sobering point it is easy to point fingers at the fed but the only game in town trying to be good at this, spending on health matters, back and forth to address long-term entitlement reform isn't materializing so it is up to those guys. >> true. the fed is in this alone and

chairman powell said so at jackson hole in august. we have a mandate for price stability so we will do it. get ready and here is the game plan but congress and the administration are helping. we are about inflation reduction but while they are doing that they are spending $1 trillion somewhere else, all borrows. another half $1 trillion, they are lighting more fired as fast as the fed can put them out. neil: we are focused on the federal reserve raising interest rates but we don't look at what their balance sheet pressures are. they are trying to unload mortgage-backed securities, treasury securities. and unfortunately as they are shoveling that out the door or trying to, more expenses are coming in, trillions of dollars courtesy of new spending so it is like they are trying to deal with this in the middle of a

financial and spending hurricane. good luck. >> it is a tough thing to pool off. i have a lot of sympathy for the fed. a lot of things haven't worked yet. they had the foot on the gas for two years and taken their foot off the gas but you have to pump the brakes. remember interest rates are negative, take whatever your favorite measure of inflation is and still don't have positive interest rates. we haven't gotten to neutral and then the restrictive range is coming, no question about that and trying to do this in a deliberate and well telegraphed fashion and enormous amount of uncertainty, china, ukraine, what is left of the pandemic and congress and the administration. at place to be doing business and the fed is struggling to stick to its plan and to be effective in the midst of office. neil: what people lose sight of, even if you do nothing,

spending is increasing. the cost to carry the debt goes up, we passed 31 trillion, all those years, we raised interest rates for essentially 0, not across the time span from 0 to 4% there about and that is adding overtime hundreds of millions of dollars to the debt without aggressive spending at all. >> one percentage point increase in interest rate is $1 trillion in additional spending over 10 years. we are seeing the build go up fast and this is the price you pay for borrowing so much in the past. a big debt load, you have to service it. as you refinance, it is more expensive. unless you get a grip on the things chad was talking about, 70% of spending you have an enormous amount of trouble making it add up and those are

coming due. the medicare trust fund runs out of money within 5 years, social security within ten. these are programs americans value that are not financially fit and now starting to threaten the economy itself, time to get serious about this. everyone always says that and i always say that and no one does anything about it but numbers are adding up and getting closer and the next congresss have to look at this problem, look at these numbers as a threat to their job not the way they keep their job. neil: very well put. always good seeing you even with these dire warnings. douglas holtz eakin on that. we are waiting to hear the president's response in the interview with jake tapper of cnn, that he will have a response to the saudis leading this effort to cut back oil production by 2 million barrels a day. we don't know what it is but we

hear from the saudi kingdom they will not be that concerned after this. (vo) while you may not be running an architectural firm, tending hives of honeybees, and mentoring a teenager — your life is just as unique. your raymond james financial advisor gets to know you, your passions, and the way you help others. so you can live your life. that's life well planned. you love closing a deal. but hate managing your business from afar. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire

neil: we were telling about

drama building before the opec plus companies were going to cut production by 2 million barrels a day. the white house was making calls to the saudi kingdom saying it would be a big mistake, they did, now you know that and hell to pay, the president indicating that on cnn last night. we don't know that will be and how it will sort out. we know the official wall street reaction is an administration caught off guard and worse than that. charlie gasparino here. charles: and incoherent administration. a lot of senior wall street executives, they raised money, dealt with service and they are not innocent over there. the crown prince involved in

the murder of journalist. what comes out of the saudis is the muslim brotherhood, not saying it is good what happened. i'm against murder. neil: we do business with mourn farias. charles: it is starting to come out in weird ways. one thing to tell me privately at another to hear jamie dimon talk about how energy policy is incoherent and we need to produce more. what has wall street up in arms is this adversarial relationship with former friends who are aligned with us against iran because iran is a bad player, the saudi's are worried about expansionism, we are at odds with them as we do stuff with iran and we are cutting back oil production. this is what they can't get their hands around, president

biden is openly antagonistic to someone he needs to produce more. what is that somebody? what is he going to do? tell you to jump off -- neil: interpreting the saudi kingdom's reaction to that, the charles: they deal with intermediaries, and has a big conference attended by everybody in finance. they are in the middle east. they know they are talking to those people every day, and it comes at a time when us energy policy is fragmented, we don't drill enough, licenses to drill but you can't get the permits

to drill because of the green energy push from the biden administration. you have guys like gavin newsom looking to outlaw automobiles in 10 years. the democratic party is both pushing a green agenda at the same time it is wedded to be an adversary of saudi arabia. not one guy i know on wall street thinks that is smart. it will come out the way jamie dimon came out criticizing energy policy and said it elsewhere and it is really scary because we are at a point where if you worry about inflation is this embedded in the system, one major element even though gas prices are coming down, still high. still almost one hundred dollars. charles: go ahead and blink because the financial times,

britain as, germany has, looking at traditional energy sources, they are all in on other types of energy because folks desperately need it. charles: and incoherent energy policy and foreign policy they are aligned, not an expert on the policy side but they have a deal in this. neil: like a secretary of state. charles: in any event, that is what they said about donald trump, we won't go there but they are telling me, rewind the videotape. biden wants to cut a nuclear deal with iran. the saudi's are a buffer with the land yet we are antagonizing the saudi's at

this time, engaging in green energy policy, inflation is high. neil: sending all the wrong messages. charles: it is incompetence. that is what they say but they don't go public. neil: thank you. charles: jamie dimon, never know with him. neil: close to doing that. connell mcshane focusing on something charlie touched on, one thing to make life difficult for energy companies in this country and another to make those same companies look at doing business outside this country. what is going on? >> lithium demand in north carolina, that is why people think about going overseas, demand for this has been crazy.

the price of lithium up 500% in a year which is good news for a company like piedmont starting in north carolina back in 2016, sit down with the cbo to talk about this, keith phillips and telling us he's. about the future, and also saying that interview he's cautious. states like california talking about a timeline for all new cars the electric by 2035. >> difficult for california and everybody in 2035 want an electric car, don't think it will be possible for the market to make enough electric cars won't get the batteries because there won't be lithium by that time. >> only one lithium mine is operational in the country and nevada. piedmont is hoping to have the second one here, gaston county, north carolina but a lot of the locals are putting up a fight concerned about the

environment, the dirt, dust, the impact on the water supply and some are refusing to sell their land. >> i love this land. it is my goal, not to leave it to the county for pork. it has always been my goal. >> reporter: he not only owns the land but is the former da in this county. he knows the law. so is chad brown, the county commissioners who will end up voting on pete meant's plan. >> we are like the bad guys, we like to ask the questions the citizenry is asking of us, we will ask for safety and environment, water, all the things that happen, the buck stops with me. >> reporter: piedmont signed a deal with tesla, supposed to be producing lithium for its batteries by next year but that has been pushed back, 2026 at the earliest, until then line operations has overseas in

places like canada and africa. that is the bottom line when you think about this. it takes time. sometimes a lot of time so keep that in mind when you hear someone talking about the timeline for going green by a certain date. neil: difficult. thank you very much. connell mcshane following that. our top national correspondent. also following served in china, not talking to terry, talking about education, many more chinese institutions making the list and some american names are falling off the list. after this. if you wake up thinking about the market and want to make the right moves fast... get decision tech from fidelity. [ cellphone vibrates ] you'll get proactive alerts for market events

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neil: republicans saying you

can do it and legally they are making sure he doesn't do it but the president is outlining on a website how he will go ahead and force it, talking about the student loan bailout double effect 40 million present and former students. $20,000 forgiveness the president is looking at, easier said than done. >> reporter: so the concern is this new process might open the potential for fraud. applications open later this month, the white house recently releasing what a short and simple application looks like that experts warned that it could open the opportunity for people who don't qualify to get some of that money. looking at the preview of what the application looks like it is the only information people will have to enter his name, social security number and date of birth to register.

important to note that borrowers only have to self certify they need -- they meet the income requirement and that is where the income comes in. without income verification they can underreport what they make. >> if you fill out the form and say you need the threshold, a number of people get money they don't deserve. >> reporter: those who qualify make less than $125,000 a year, or $250,000 per household, the white house says they will be more critical of applicants that may close to those numbers but it is not possible for them to be more critical because they're not asking for proof of income levels and there's a lot of money on the line, the payouts are estimated to cost $400 billion. when you have an online program like this it also creates a pool for other scammers to jump

into. there's concern around fake websites that will attempt to steal information and make it look like a government website and steal the information and money for qualifying borrowers so applicants are warned to be careful of where they apply and put their personal information. of course all of this depends on this relief program going through. 6 states are suing the biden administration over the student loan handout. neil: this comes on the backdrop of no american colleges or universities losing, few of them on the top 100 global list and more institutions from china making that list. the great us china tech or other with us now. not long ago you were talking about inroads and priorities

the chinese were taking on making it world-class education system. this by design. >> it certainly is because china has been supporting universities to a greater extent than we have. putting a lot of money into research but the other thing is these rankings look at the cutting edge research and china allows it without ethical restrictions so no coincidence the first g added human came from china. they are trying to insert human genes into primates, giving monkeys human intelligence and the ability to speak languages, these are things we should not be permitting, china increases to rankings by doing these weird and dangerous experiments. neil: and poured a lot of money into it. we have some well established

institutions, a lot of money coming in, a central government can provide to catch people's attention. how do we compete? >> something else, especially during the obama biden administration's, if you're hostile to patents you reduce incentive to do research. in china you don't have that problem. this is something we can fix, something we should be doing anyway that is certainly affecting these rankings. neil: if this continues, going back and forth and all the rest, china appears to be doing this sort of thing on steroids, hard to compete with. >> yes, in a sense. you've got to remember the

rising rankings because of science and technology, and the resources to continue this, with surveillance state and loans and the rest of it. they've got an overstretch problem and an economy that is failing and they don't have resources to continue this for much longer but we have to be concerned. neil: philosophy majors may not apply, they are pouring it in to the science and the rest. >> these rankings are secured to science and technology, if it was more broad-based chinese institutions do very poorly, to see the reemphasis of ideology. not only marxism and leninism

but xi jinping, this goes back to the cultural revolution and that will tank it but for these rankings they are more on science and technology side. neil: news to the wise, china to see that out. >> to learn the thoughts of the ruler. neil: following those developers, following the market, barely holding onto gains of 20 one points, the president is on a road trip to start what will be a 3 state trip where he's going to be selling policies or working. not all democrats agree. ♪

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neil: the road trip is on, for the president of the united states, to get the message out, things are looking up. if only that were the case. peter doocy where the president will be later today. >> president biden not giving in to calls from his critics to start drilling more in the united states as oil and gas prices, doing an opposite, and a new ban on 125,000 acres to designate a national monument, first time he is done this, a monument for the men and women of the 10 mountain division who

trained here. president biden is saying he thinks he's done enough in his first term to help democrats in these midterms. neil: first thing they said they would do is the inflation reduction act. what does that do? raise drug prices? raise medical costs again? ensure we no longer have the ability to have tax credits, don't know what they are for. >> we were told not to expect much emphasis from the president this trip on crime or immigration. we are told the president wants to talk about bipartisan infrastructure law, inflation reduction act and clean energy jobs and sounds like midterms are going to weigh heavily on the president's decision to run for reelection. neil: i won't make this about my decision on the election.

after that is done in november i will be in the process of deciding. >> reporter: president biden is saying he does not think americans should be preparing for a recession but if there is one it will be a slight recession. neil: what a slight recession is? we've got the dow up 29 points. between wholesale inflation report, prices are not leading up, signs from one consumer products that consumers aren't giving up. the tug-of-war is on after this.

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neil: you would think given the crime rate around the country are particularly in california and places like los angeles might surprise you to hear city council is looking at an office of unarmed response and safety, no idea what that means but thank goodness kelly o'grady does.

>> reporter: the ideas rather than have police respond to a nonviolent or noncriminal situation, you would have these service providers take that call. how this would work, 911 dispatchers, what calls to respond to, they could be homelessness or mental health, the idea to de-escalate those lower risk situations by removing that armed presence, they hoped strapped police resources what address more pressing incidents though some say it could be another way of defunding the police but alex villanueva says this could threaten the responder and the community. >> a confrontation between the homeowner and a homeless individual might be going through a mental episode. they are unarmed and in a fight for their life when they get

there because they engaged the homeowner with a weapon of opportunity. >> there's a lot of concern about how to determine if a call is nonviolent or noncriminal and a lot of skepticism around whether the lack of police presence would incite more crime and we spoke to a former criminal yesterday who said without that threat of imminent arrest he would behave differently so we will keep an eye on whether this initiative is effective. neil: all of this is a curious develop and, polite way of putting it. good to have you. don't know what affect such an entity would have or counsel that has an unarmed presence, and does feel like the last thing they would address.

>> it is insane to think this would work in the real world. as the sheriff certain, real life situations change in seconds. it goes from a peaceful incident or violent incident, they deal with these incidents. in the bronx, thrown to a table, last table, changed that quicken. do you wait for police to respond? it is too late. they deal with it and stop the nonsense. neil: they are not. it seems like a common sense response.

>> it is not going to stop them. the explanation of another way of defunding, the whole criminal justice system across america is geared the criminals to do what they want whenever they want and how they want to do it. you don't have anybody on board, the 1-2 punch you need to take it out, you have the 1-2 punch knocking police out and it will get to a stage where they think they are doing the right thing, it is too late, the residual effect could last years. neil: if you are looking not to do stuff like this in an environment like this where is pretty bipartisan, where they are reporting from. and it is crime.

it seems a clear-cut case. the approach seems a clear-cut mess. >> given places where this is happening in new york and california it is not bipartisan. they go so far to one side they forgot how to do good old-fashioned policing and being proactive. it gets progressively worse. unless they put somebody in an office, i will use new york as an example, get rid of the governor and the mayor, the biggest empty suit who promised everything and he does nothing about it. don't let police commissioner do the job he was hired to do but was out there fighting with people in texas and trying all over the place. take care of your own backyard, let the police do the job they were trained to do.

you can hold the police in check. they do it every day but they are not letting them be proactive anymore. neil: the mayor complained about all the illegal migrants who made their way here, better than 10,000 and that it is going to cost $1 billion as to house them anywhere and everywhere in all the new york city boroughs they have to deal with. that could make things more challenging when it comes to simultaneously addressing crime. >> these migrants aren't even vetted so you don't know who is coming into the city.

into westchester, they use it as a political football to go back and forth but who pays the price? everybody in new york and texas, if people are serious about doing things about crime, vote people and who will make the difference. get rid of the das who because the clog in the system, judges who refuse to do what they have to do. get rid of them and start from scratch. and hold doctors accountable. neil: good luck with that. how much progress or common ground. the common ground stuff is so polarized. and in many cases shot and killed. thank you, in the corner of

wall and broad, dow jones industrials up 29 points, those who find the resilience of consumers remarkable and others, fearing it can last too long. much more after this, stay there. (vo) while you may not be closing on a business deal while taking your mother and daughter on a once-in-a-lifetime adventure — . . for those you love. so you can live your life. that's life well planned. ♪ here goes nothing. hey greg. uhh...hello? it's me, your heart! really? yes! recording an ekg in 30 seconds.

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