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analyzes the week that was and helps position you for the week ahead. i'm maria bartiromo. democrat desperation. president biden is selling millions of barrels of oil from the spr in a bid to lower fuel prices before the midterm elections. senate energy committee member bill cassidy is here on why depleting our emergency oil stockpile is a dangerous move. then a new monmouth university poll shows inflation the top issue for voters. mohamed el aryan says the coming recession was totally avoidable. what went wrong. and what the liz truss resignation means for the economy in europe and the united states. then, unholy alliance. iranian military now on the ground in crimea teaching russians how to use deadly kamikaze drones against ukraine. i'm asking former deputy national security adviser kt mcfarland about that and what a possible third term for xi jinping could mean for u.s.-china relations. all that coming up.

but first, just weeks before the midterm elections, president biden announcing another drawdown the of our emergency oil stockpile as a way to curb high gasoline prices and telling energy oil companies to ramp up production. joining me right now is energy and natural resources committee member, senator bill cassidy. senator, thanks very much for being here. >> hey, thank you, maria. maria: we are at the lowest levels in terms of the strategic petroleum reserves since 1984. the president continues to sell and deplete this emergency stockpile, and he says it's not political. what is the impact of all of this selling of oil? are you concerned that we are looking at dangerously low levels, the lowest since 1984? >> of course. first, let's talk about the impact. the impact they're hoping for is that they don't get slaughtered in the midterm elections. but on the other hand, it is the

absence of an energy policy which most concerns me. this substitutes for north american production which could have made us energy independent, could have made us able to keep our gasoline prices low, create lots of american jobs and, by the way, helped our allies in europe. what really concerns me is that their energy policy is absent, so all they're doing is pumping out of the strategic petroleum reserve. maria: yeah. and he's also trying to act like it's the oil companies that come up with the price of gasoline as opposed to supply and demand. i spoke with the american petroleum institute president, mike summers, over on "mornings with maria." here's what he said about biden's so-called energy policy. watch. >> this is a very precarious position we're in today at a time of dramatic geopolitical upheaval. one thing that this administration has done from the very beginning is they've tried to do everything they could to prevent production here in the united states. this administration continues to talk i out of both sides of its mouth saying they want more

production but not putting more policies many place that would actually encourage production. >> yeah. he's using the bully pulpit to mislead the american people. i'm told that there are four permits applied for in, like, january of this year that, if they had been granted this year, there would already be oil and gas coming from the gulf of mexico to be refined to keep our utility costs lower, to keep our gasoline prices lower. but those are still waiting to be approved. so we're now what, the tenth month in. it could have been approved within six months, they are still waiting. the administration is doing everything they can to keep it in the ground while hay use the bully pulpit to imply that it's the oil companies, the bogeyman of the oil companies, and we pay more. not just at the pump, but with utilities, and that's hurting the american people. maria: how does he not know this? when joe biden walked into the white house, the cpi, the consumer price index, was at

1.4%. it's at 8.2%. of inflation has skyrocketed on his watch, and, you know, energy is one of the big issues. what are you expecting from home heating bills this fall and winter? >> so right now utility bills are up 30%. i expect them to go higher particularly for those dependent upon heating oil. you ask what did he expect. the dirty little secret is that many in his administration want us to pay more for our utilitieses, for gasoline. they think it speeds up the transition to a, you know, kind of battery-powered, renew able -- renewable-powered future. that's their dirty little secret. but they can't say it before the midterms. everything about releasing oil now, asking the saudis to wait, hold off on raising their prices until after the midterms, they don't mind us paying more, not just before they get clobbered in the midterms. maria: wow. senator, do you think you'll be able to take control of the

senate as well? >> if the american people are voting on inflation, the economy, crime and the border, we take the senate. maria: all right. >> this is a referendum on joe biden's presidency. that helps us. maria: senator, we'll be watching all of that now three weeks away. bill cassidy joining us this morning and this weekend. thank you so much, sir. coming up, mohamedal arkansas january has been sounding the alarm a discomfort back there? instead of using aloe, or baby wipes, or powders, try the cooling, soothing relief or preparation h. because your derriere deserves expert care. preparation h. get comfortable with it. ♪ ♪ luxury exemplified. innovation electrified. with apple music seamlessly integrated. the all-new, all-electric eqs suv from mercedes-benz.

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muck. maria: welcome back. the next two weeks are going to be critical on third quarter earning. take a look where the markets ended this week a after a slew of earnings reports. next week a whole host of technology reporting as a new monmouth university poll shows inflation is still the most important issue for voters ahead of of the midterm elections. economists are forecasting a 100% chance of recession next year. joining me right now, queens

college cambridge president, mohamed el-erian. you are expecting a pretty sharp slowdown, a recession next year. can you assess where we are for the macro story and what you're expecting next year? >> yes, maria. we are in a situation where interest rates are continuing to go up into a slowing domestic economy. why? because inflation has been high and persistent. why? because the federal reserve has been late. so we are in this awful situation that we have seen historically where the fed ends up tipping us into recession. les one interesting aspect here which is financial stability's also being threatened. maria: yes, it's a great point, because that's what happened mt. u.k. and i want to get your take on the bank of england's response to financial instability. but let's stay domestic for a moment because i'm trying to understand how bad things will get and what you're expecting and what you're telling clients

and advising in terms of protecting one's self or protecting your company in the face of what could be a severe version. >> well, the most important thing is resilience. this is a difficult period because whether you're a company or you're a household or you're investors, you've got both and inflation as your headwinds. so you need resilient. now, different entities do it differently. in the case of a company, it's all about balance sheet strength. it's all about having cash on the balance sheet. in case of an investor, it is the ability to navigate this very bumpy journal withny. the hardest thing is households because they're being pressured by high prices, by the cost of living. but also by increasing insecurity about their future income. maria: uh-huh, great analysis. meanwhile, it has been a bumpy road in terms of currencies. the japanese yen at the lowest level since 1990. the dollar's strength has already been cutting into profits for some companies.

what's going on in japan? >> so japan is on the receiving end of the increase in yields globally, and that is really led by the u.s. the u.s. has three factors driving the dollar stronger across almost the whole world. the first is this is the most front-loaded interest rate cycle we have seen for decades. why? because the fed is late, and they're scrambling to play catch-up. so there's an interest rate differential favoring the u.s. yes, we may be slowing, but we're much better than elsewhere and, of course, we are the safe haven. the problem with japan s and that's what makes it interesting for us in the u.s. and elsewhere, is that trying to cap, they're trying to suppress interest rates, something called yield curve control. and that is proving very difficult. so they've sacrificed their currency, they're having to intervene in the bond market, in the currency market, and they're starting to be concerned that something is going to break in

the japanese markets. maria: uh-huh. and do you think it will? >> i think we're going to the to get very close. now, why should we care? it's because they own a lot of our security. hay own treasuries, they own corporate bonds, they own high-yield bonds, and the last thing we want is the phenomenon we saw in the u.k. you mentioned the u.k. earlier. people being forced to sell and, therefore, ending up in this vortex where you're forced to sell, the the price goes down so it makes you sell even more. so that's what rewe'll -- we really need to avoid. maria: wow, that is a great point, mohamed. in terms of the u.k., liz truss resigning this week as british prime minister amid this economic turmoil, sky-high inflation. president biden said he's not worried about the u.k.'s political upheaval hitting the u.s. economy, but we know that what you just mentioned, the financial instability sparked the back of -- bank of england to change its stance. and i wonder if you expect

something like that in the u.s. does the fed see the market selling off as a reason to pull back? before that, give us your sense of what went on this week in the u.k. and the impact of liz truss' resignation. >> enginely we've gone -- generally, we've gone to where politics try to defy economics. and very large unfunded tax cuts were simply too much, a step too fast, too far to quote prime minister liz truss. so what happened? the bond vigilantes came back and forced the government to do massive u-turns and forced the bank of england to intervene. for now, there is relative stability in the u.k. financial markets because the government has done all these u-turns. however, it's only a matter of time til markets ask what next. but what the big lesson from the u.k. for other markets is, is that the bond vigilantes are back and, therefore, the room for maneuver and the room for

irresponsible fiscal policies is very, very limited. maria: yeah. it's a great point. do you think that the fed could actually have a pivot the way the bank of england did if they see markets get undone? >> so, first of all, we don't want that because that's going to be like driving the car with a foot on the brakes and a foot on the accelerator. you don't really want to do that. we need a foot on the brakes for the fed because inflation is so high, and we don't want inflation expectations to get away from us, and they are already late. they've fallen into mischaracterization of inflation that made them fall behind, and now they're scrambling to catch up. maria: yeah. >> so the last thing we want on top of inflation that they're going to have to intervene for market-functioning reason. but there is a risk. i keep on repeating. it is not just that interest rates are going higher for longer, it's faster. they are getting there really fast. very front-loaded, and when you

change interest rate regimes so quickly, the system doesn't have time to adjust, and that's the risk we face on that side. maria: well, there are so many risks and dangerous moments, for sure. mohamed, it's great to get your insights on all of that. thank you, sir. >> thank you, maria. maria: mohamed al-arian joining us. new reports that the iranian military is helping russia with drone attacks against ukraine. former deputy nation another busy day? of course - you're a cio in 2022. but you're ready. because you've got the next generation in global secure networking from comcast business. with fully integrated security solutions all in one place. so you're covered. on-premise and in the cloud. you can run things the way you want - your team, ours or a mix of both. with the nation's largest ip converged network.

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drones to fly explosives direct directly into targets in kyiv and other ukrainian cities. joining me now is former deputy national security adviser, kt mcfarland. kt, great to have you this weekend. thank you so much for being here., obviously russia and china have been partnering, and now we see iran also helping russia kill ukrainians. what are your thoughts and reaction to what we hear about these kamikaze drones? >> well, you know, this is now the new axis of evil, and their major goal is to replace the united states as a major world power, rewrite the rules of order in the world to their advantage. a lot of this is happening whether it's the war many ukraine or iran having the ability to assist russia in the war, a lot of it goes back to american energy policy, believe it or not to. it's because president biden shutting down the american oil and natural gas industry, what does that do?

makes windfall profits for russia and for iran. what are they doing with those profits? well, in the case of russia, rebuild its military, invade ukraine. in the case of iran, heir going for a nuclear weapons program, and they're now totally in relation to russia. there's a real symbiotic relationship where the russians are going to probably help iran with their nuclear program, iran is going to help russia with this war in ukraine, and meanwhile, we're on the outside. maria: wow. you know, there are so many legs to this failed energy policy. and it's true, energy policy is national security policy. i don't know if the biden administration understands that. you say that this next two week period is going to be critical for ukraine. >> there's a number of factors. right now vladimir putin realizes he can't survive in office without having something to show for this war. so any thought that the people -- well, we're going to teach him a lesson, we're going to give him a bloody nose, he's

going to have to leave ukraine in hue millation, that's not going to happen. vladimir putin will escalate before he allows that to happen. there's a lot of stuff he can do. he can have cyber attacks against the west, he could cut the undersea -- the cables, communications cables going to europe. there's a lot he can do short of nuclear weapons, and he's got to do something to sort of change the dynamic. the next two weeks are important because in the next two weeks the united states, nato allies, we're having a you teen military exercises. -- routine. the opportunity and the possibility of one little thing going wrong, something making a mistake and the russians responding byes calculating is what i'm really worried about. you know, the russian doctrine says that if you're losing, escalate. escalate to deescalate. so they're -- and if vladimir putin can point to anything and and say to his people, i told you, this was really nato attacking america, he wants that escalation because it allows him to to rally his people around

the russian flag in a war that is not going well and is increasingly unpopular in russia. maria: well, it just appears that all of our adversaries are on the march, and it all happened after the botched withdrawal from afghanistan. i want to pivot to china because president xi is gaining a third a 5-year term as leader of china's communist party. the party congress is going to finish up this week. what do you take away from that, and will we see china get even more provocative the after this party congress? i know that there are right now as we speak chinese police throughout the united states. there's one police station that i know of many new york where the ccp members are there with surveillance programs and trying to insure that even if you're chinese-american, you better get onboard with the ccp narrative. >> yeah. now what's happened is xi

jinping, unprecedented, historic third term. he's effectively been elected emperor for life. he now has no constraints, and i think you'll see chinese foreign policy, domestic policy, chinese security policy, economic policy on steroids. this is his window of opportunity to reclaim taiwan. it's a historic goal for the chinese communist party. he wants to make it happen while he's in office. but the other thing he needs taiwan for, maria, is economic. taiwan, that's where, what, 95% of the world's chips are made. he can control the world economy if he controls the taiwan economy. and then finally, militarily taiwan is the key to china dominating the whole western pacific, the entire region, which is the world's most important maritime route. and i think xi jinping, he now has no brakes on. he has no brakes domestically, he has no brakes in foreign policy, and the united states is now distracted with a problem

many europe and ukraine. maria: well, unfortunately, this president keeps rolling over for the ccp. we know these surveillance programs are in place. they're even surveilling american citizens, and yet what does this president do? he cancels the china initiative back in february of 2022. in the trump administration, where you were taking national security issues quite seriously, you had this china initiative where you could investigate surveillance, investigate intellectual property theft. why cancel it? >> you know, this is a really key point that most people have missed. the biden administration comes in, and it was a very good. unit of the u.s. government that was looking into chinese spying. chinese spying of taking critical infrastructure technology and taking it back to china. the biden administration comes in and says, well, by think that's discriminatory, it's a really bad idea, so they cancel it. spying on america, nobody's stopping you. and if at the same time that

american cities are defunding our police, the chinese are funding their police corps that is in american cities. and as you said, their goal is to tell the chinese people, chinese-americans or chinese nationals, you have to do what we say. and if you don't, you've got family and relatives back in china. and the other thing is china a couple of years ago said any chinese citizen has to cooperate with the chinese military, the chinese intelligence services, or they face chargings of treason and potential, potential, you know, execution. i mean, that's how tough the chinese are getting even on chinese who are not on their own shores. maria: maybe he wants payback for all the money that the biden family has taken in. that's why we ask the question, is this president compromised? these are very serious decisions. kt, we so appreciate your insights. >> thanks, maria. maria: some days, it felt like asthma was holding me back.

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maria: welcome back. we have got another big program in the works for next weekend. tune in to "wall street" every friday night at 7 p.m. eastern right here on fox business. and i'll see you on sun morning on the fox news channel, 10 a.m. life on sunday for "sunday morning futures." interviews with senator ron johnson, benjamin netanyahu and gubernatorialing candidates kari lake and -- dixon. don't miss the show hive sunday on fox news at 10 a.m. start smart every weekday from 6-9 a.m. for "mornings with maria." we hope you will start your day with us every weekday on fox business. thank you so much for joining me. i hope you have a the weekend, and i'll see you again next time. ♪ ♪ ♪