that. um, but you know on donald trump. i've long believed that if joe biden said he was going to run again that donald trump would feel compelled to do so because of his ego and his need to sort of have that rematch, but i think that if biden said, no, that you know, donald trump might read that writing on the wall because it is true republicans as well. they'd like to see new blood and new faces are kind of tight. of some of these rematches and fights and it probably would be healthy for the country to move on. all right. we've got to go. but thanks to both of you for staying awake all the way through this show kim strassel and richard fowler. that's it for us this week. i'll be back next week with more commentary and interviews right here on the wall street journal. large thanks very much for joining us have a great week. barron's roundtable, sponsored by global x e t. f. welcome to barron's roundtable , where we get behind the headlines and prepare you for

the week ahead. i'm jack otter. coming up after next week's expected rate hike. can the feds stop raising rates? blackrock's rick rieder on whether inflation has peaked and how to make money in bonds , and later there's a good chance the midterm elections will result in divided government and ultimately, gridlock in d. c why? that could be good news for the market, but we begin as always, with three things investors ought to be thinking about right now, if you weren't investing in tech, who was a great week for the markets and better than expected third quarter gdp report raised hopes for that soft landing. if you are invested in tech, well, applesauce, upbeat results, but amazon meta, another tech giants shook investors confidence with disappointing earnings and chinese president xi jinping. pink's dramatic consolidation of power is raising the question is china on investable on the barron's roundtable, my colleagues ben leveson, corn, english and jackhowes. so, ben, you know that leadership is changing in the market because tech mostly had an awful week. and yet the

s and p was up 5% what happened? it was a really tough week for big tech stocks not named apple, but it really didn't matter. the dow finished up 5.7% which is just amazing, and really, i think this is a little bit about earnings. but mainly, it's about the fed. the market is looking at the meeting next week, and they're thinking what we're going to get a signal that the fed is going to start slowing down the rate hikes. and really, that's the thing that's been concerning the market all this time. and so even though we had these bad earnings from meta from amazon, from microsoft, and from alphabet, the possibility of a soft landing that maybe growth, a holdup that inflation will come down and the federal be able to pause those rate hikes really got the market excited and you took a look at some numbers and saw that that spread between how tech is doing everything else is really dramatic between the nasdaq and the dow. there was. there's been a 9% point difference this month, which is amazing there. in only seven times since 1977 that were bigger than that. and most of them occurred during the .com bubble, so we can either assume that you know, there are few

one off so we can maybe think, okay, maybe we'll get lucky. it's a one off, but we can also think, okay, this is going to look a lot like the .com bubble where we have to kind of work off these different cuts. these valuation premiums that we're in a lot of these tech stocks before before this year started , let's look shorter term next week. we've got a jobs number. what do you expecting there? what we see an indication that hikes are taking their toll. we're supposed to deceleration to about 200,000. that would be down from 280,000 in september. is that enough for the fed? it's getting there and i think it'll probably enough for the market if it starts getting to that kind of number. if it's a big beat, we could have problems calling. it was a horrible week for technology stocks. what really struck me was that the two juggernauts on the one hand that advertising in google? it was sucking advertising for everybody else . and then there was the unstoppable cloud business at aws and microsoft. both of those things hurt? yes so i mean, you said bad week. i mean, really, when you're looking at the thanks, talk. you're talking about bad year

over the last 12 months. they have said about 2.5 trillion with a t in market cap. but the thing that really struck out was when you looked at amazon's aws. they saw growth of about 27% that came in well below analyst estimates of about 32. similar story at microsoft. as you mentioned, the thing was with these cloud businesses. they were thought of that kind of have your cake and eat it, too. they seemed to promise a lot of growth, and they also seen that they were going to be adorable because of course, businesses aren't going to slow down their spending on cloud computing and storage and things like that. well, no, they are. i mean, we are looking at a tough economic condition and from earnings while they have been there have been positive surprises. you know, companies are being more cautious going forward. so we've heard about these big companies, but really interesting story in barron's by take him about company i had never heard of does not bode well for what's going to happen in tech company sk hynix chipmaker they saw a 67% decrease in their profits for the quarter. because that's a

bit of a hit and what you're seeing or what they're seeing, and noticing is much weaker demand on things like pcs and also servers. even worse, they're cutting their cap back spending. which says not only are they seeing it right now, they don't see things coming back anytime soon. quick question that drama of elon musk and twitter is finally over for now. that chapter is over. he did purchase the company. what does that mean for the social media landscape ? as far as investors are concerned, investors won't have twitter to kick around. the more but what's been interesting when we see these tech companies fell off so much result. facebook give up about a quarter of its market cap this week, companies that were thought to be impenetrable, either because of their size or adult class share structure. are now starting to get you know, activist attention. we had one activist ultimate or go after facebook probably can't wage a proxy fight, given the size of facebook and the sheriff structure, but they can create a lot of headlines issues for them. so these tech companies aren't looking at

impenetrable. we've got data from lizard recently that showed that about 22% of activist campaigns are in tech companies used to be 14% jack. let's pivot to china real quick. i was talking to a financial advisor. he said he'd just come out of a spirited investment. committee conversation about whether they should invest in china at all. i personally i'm not sure i like that are oi stocks took a bit of u. s listed shares took a beating, especially early this past week. alibaba netease baidu. called invesco golden dragon lost 14% a day this has to deal with the shooting ping, who you mentioned, replacing the market friendly members of his leadership group with these, yes, men and investors didn't love it. there's a fear look, the bookcase for china shares is that they're cheap, right? alibaba has lost almost 80% over two years, it has generated more free cash than amazon over the past five years , yet it trades at a sliver of amazon's value. the bear case, which i lean to is that you don't get any ownership. if you're us investor, it's a gimmick. you're buying into a

shell company because china bans foreign ownership across vast swaths of its economy, and there's always the potential of some kind of backlash will retaliate. retaliatory action. you know the u. s trade tensions, the bulk the bulk counter to that bear cases. she wouldn't do that, because he wants to renminbi to be a global currency is not going to weaponize assets denominated in his own currency, but the bear double down against that counter. is it the shares of stunk anyhow? for 30 years, wall street has been telling us investors you have to get into china. you look at the china index over 30 years you've made no money. right you could have been in an s and p 500 fund. you could have made 10% a year their world beating companies, but i just don't see the urgency for being there instead of here. mortgage shoppers and tech investors may fear next week's fed rate hike, but one bond investor is positively giddy blackrock's rick rieder on how investors can benefit that's next. roundtable is brought to you by global x

beyond ordinary et. f for more information, visit fox business .com slash barron's roundtable. discomfort back there instead of using aloe baby wipes, powders. try the cooling, soothing relief of preparation h because your dairy air deserves expert care preparation h comfortable with it. owners are switching to ram. which means more people behind the grill are switching to ram that and more people behind the people behind the grill. more first leg of the road trips, more uncles who take thanksgiving football games too seriously and more people who can't resist telling you that the leaves are changing, changing, switching

to ram percent financing, plus 2000 total bonus cash on the 2022 ram 1500 bighorn crew cab. i have moderate to severe ulcerative colitis. so i'm taking symposia once daily pill because i won't let you see. stop me from being me. zippo zia can help people with uc achieve and maintain remission and has been shown to reduce symptoms in his early as two weeks is the first and only s one p receptor modulator approved for you see, don't take symposia if you had a heart attack, chest pain, stroke or mini stroke heart failure in the last six months, irregular or abnormal heartbeat. did sleep apnea wise cause serious side effects, including infections that can be life threatening and caused death, slow heart rate or breathing problems. increased blood pressure, macular edema, swelling and narrowing of the brain's blood vessels and increased risk of pml, a rare brain infection that usually leads to death or severe disability. tell your doctor if you are pregnant or plan to be

don't let you see. stop you from doing you if you're living with moderate to severe ulcerative colitis, ask your doctor about once daily supposed to point university is the premier life skills university where students transformation is focused on personal initiative and extraordinary career outcomes. employers value hp us real world preparation students love unprecedented access to global leaders on high points inspiring campus. and parents appreciate us god, family and country values. choose to be extraordinary at high point university travel era, we can calculate cell stacks on almost anything anywhere automatically . valera ah. what if tax rates change? filing sales tax returns. managing exemption certificates. business license guidance connect with the county classification, cross border sales. what about. this

budget mark ups thank you. the fed is continuing its aggressive fight against inflation. but some say next week's 4th 75 basis point rate hike could go too far. can the fed beat inflation without causing recession? and how should you invest now? that rates have shot up? joining me now to answer that question? blackrock c i o of global fixed income. rick rieder. thanks so much. in studio with us. thanks for having me so obviously the feds hikes were feeling them in the economy. but is it actually showing any signs of affecting inflation, which is their goal? you know you don't see a lot of it yet. i mean, when you look at, you know, we looked at the employment cost index that came out and it's still high. you look at. i mean, we're still running year on year cpi over 8% so it's still hasn't really worked through yet. but you're seeing him and i think the signs of a reduction, inflation

or happening. good freight costs, low commodity prices, you get shelter. the housing market by every metric is coming under pressure shelters a big part of the inflation metrics so you can see that it's coming. but heretofore, if you look at the current data, it's still pretty sticky. you're confident it's on the way this is going to trickle through. i mean, i'm very confident that it's on its way. listen, it's still going to be higher than it's been historically for two reasons. one is wages are still high, and you've still got a job market that's tight. fed's trying to create some degradation demand for hiring that will bring you to bring it down somewhat, but it's still sticky. the other one. i think people underestimate. we have a service oriented economy. it's 80% of the job market two thirds of consumption. health care, education, restaurants travel and that's still staying high. that's still all the good sector is clearly deflating. today it's a services are solid , and it's most of the economy , so it's we're going to come down. inflation is coming down, but it's going to come down to still a higher rate than we've

been used to. people are champing at the bit to get out and travel so that that won't fall down anytime soon. so look, historically, the fed doesn't not have a great track record of achieving this so called soft landing. this time. it's almost trickier because there's so many weird crosscurrents any chance of a soft landing. i mean, i think you have all the reasons why you could employment. that's that is solid. today. you've got a savings rate that's high. the system largely has delivered. so you've got a lot of reasons why you could have a soft landing. the thing that i think is hard. it's amazing to think about when we started this year. in march, the fed was doing qe and the funds rate zero and we've gotten this rapid escalation right so fastest in history. and draining liquidity at the same time, a trillion three liquidity has come out of the system since the end of the year. so that boy that's a shock to the system. part of why i think the fed is going to start reducing the amount of hikes is i think you have to step back and say, gosh, can the thing calibrate down in the economy calibrates down without over tightening, and that's the

big question today, the liquidity things interesting. very few people talk about that . but it is dramatic, but i want to ask you about a comment you made recently and barons, which was you said you were giddy about the investment environment in the midst of a bear market. that's not something you hear very often. jack i maybe i'm just tired of two or three years of zero, and you and it fixed income. you were buying things at 0.25% under 1% by the way in europe, we were buying things if it was a positive interest rate that was exciting. now you can take you can buy front end assets short on the yield curve assets to year, one year, two year assets and you could, you know , certainly get 5% if you want to go down and do some investment grade some security triple assets you can get 6 6.5% without going long on the yield curve and without taking a lot of credit risk going fixed income, that's nirvana. that's why that's why i'm that's what i'm getting. normally we had to stretch you had to buy down really risky, high yield emerging market. you don't do any of that today. and you can get what is a really nice yield, and people were

complaining naturally about nothing in their savings accounts. everything else. now you're finally seeing something in money markets and so forth. where do you see the biggest opportunities? anything maybe wall street is missing. municipal bonds are looking kinda good or okay. i mean, you know, by the way relative to where they used to be, it's pretty. it's pretty exciting and some of the high yielding younis, you're getting some nice yield to it. so i think that is that is interesting. i think the one that people aren't talking about listen front end of the yield curve. the short duration assets if you can clip six and sleep well at night doctors, the most exciting thing i've done a long time. hard to say, sleeping well, it's six but but the one that people aren't talking about is you think about all these companies. investment grade companies that issue debt in 24,021 with a 1% 2% coupon. they now traded investment grade companies. 55 60 cents on the dollar you think about you used to have to buy distressed, high yield to get that and you think about investing in debt markets, you know, in real estate when you know low no value is going is going up

today. but in actually those bonds you think about if i could buy investment grade at 55. these companies aren't defaulting. if they did, you'd get paid out at par so that we've been starting at some of the long bonds that are really , really attractive dollar prices today i just want to put a finer point that you were talking about buying something for 55 cents. you will get paid a dollar for that, and in the meantime, you'll get a pretty decent yield. i mean, the coupon isn't great, but because you because of the dollar price year yield ends up being by the we're talking about companies like home depot. google disney visa, good quality companies that if you thought about now we're seeing some high yield. investors say. wait a second i get by these companies of 55 cents on the dollar again. the coupon isn't great, but you're returning. your yield from it is really attractive and so you can create a really neat what we call barbell in fixed income . a lot of the short yielding papering gets six or 7% and then by some investment grade, which also if rates start to stabilize and come down, the price appreciation will be tremendous as long bonds. thank you so much for coming by for having me with the midterms

little more than a week away what to expect from the markets and are we headed for a game of fiscal chicken? that's next. monday closing in on the midterms as inflation and recession fears hit voters inside the economy's impact at the polls. mulvaney weighs in on cavuto coast to coast. yeah. what will you do? what will you change? will you make something better? will you create

something entirely new. our dell technologies advisors provide you with the tools and expertise. you need to do incredible things. because we believe there's an innovator in all of us. one person can cause an effect. one person in hr can challenge outdated hiring practices. champion modern benefits advocate for pay equity and turn jobs into careers. hr empowers

jack: midterm elections a little more than a week away. if republicans take one or both houses we will have a divided government, dc gridlock could be good news for the markets. that's with this week's cover story. megan costella joins us, thanks for joining us. with all signs of a divided government, can you tell us what that will mean for the economy and the markets? >> it will mean a lot of gridlock, not a lot get done in a divided washington but it will mean a lot of brinkmanship. not a lot to agree on, not a lot they work together on but

they have to get things done like the budget or the deficit. jack: it guarantees a lot of noise. will they do anything? can they pass anything at all? >> they have to pass a budget. if republicans win, they get to levy their influence a little bit and see increased funding for defense, things like oil and gas, traditional energy sectors, split government means they do this every 5 years, democrats have to push for more money for nutrition, food stamp programs, climate change mitigation, republicans want more aid to farmers and crop insurance as governing by executive order that republicans will try to block things they don't like like regulation for financial agencies but more noise than there is action except for those areas. jack: the us needs a deal on

the debt ceiling in a year and folks will say they always reached a compromise before but the rules of fiscal chicken are clear, you must make the other side believe you 're serious that you will go all the way. partisanship as bad as i have ever seen, i can't tell whether washington has reached peak stupid or if it has higher to climb from year, bond markets have turned cranky. someone said tax cuts in the uk, bond yield on the long side, spiked pension funds almost went cuba we --kerbluey but what are the chances the bond market think there will be a default? the yield spike here in fiscal chicken turned into fiscal roadkill? i yield my remaining seconds to you to respond to my monologue disguised as a question? >> you are right about all of

that, thanks for challenging conventional wisdom, something washington doesn't like to do. when key point is to watch the way they happened in november. if it is a big been for republicans they have to make a deal with the white house, it is easier to make that deal. all of congress working together to make it. if they win by a few seats almost every member of congress will have enough leverage to push the us to the brink of default. we've seen at least a few that are willing to go to the edge on this. carleton: curious what the midterm elections going forward? >> watching this closely. the midterms mean everything for the fiscal spending we will see going forward. in the past few years, probably little to no fiscal relief in the event of recession. that will leave the central bank on its own to navigate us through.

any recession is nothing like extending an employment aid we had in previous years, nothing like that. they are on the road to pull the monetary lever and see what they can do. jack: we have asked a couple times are ready. is there anything republicans or democrats will agree on or anything that is going to get done? >> a couple things. closer we get to 2024 the more both parties shall before presidential election they are able to get things done so they are looking at ways to compromise. we know they are on the same page about china and industrial policy, the chips actor earlier this year, that incentivizes more semiconductor production in the us and that could build on that, higher end production as well. and incentivizing near shoring, bringing more production closer to home if not us oil. the other one i will offer his

we could see delivered tax ♪ i got into debt in college and, no matter how much i paid, it followed me everywhere. so i consolidated it into a low-rate personal loan from sofi. get a personal loan with no fees, low fixed rates, and borrow up to $100k. sofi. get your money right. ♪ ♪ luxury exemplified. innovation electrified. with apple music seamlessly integrated. the all-new, all-electric eqs suv from mercedes-benz. then i got the dexcom g6. i just glance at my phone, and there's my glucose number. wow. my a1c has dropped over 2 points to 7.2.

that's a huge victory. the day you get your clearchoice dental implants makes every day... a "let's dig in" day... mm. ...a "chow down" day... a "take a big bite" day... a "perfectly delicious" day... - mm. [ chuckles ] - ...a "love my new teeth" day. because your clearchoice day is the day everything is back on the menu. a clearchoice day changes every day. schedule a free consultation. this isn't just freight. these aren't just shipments. they're promises. promises of all shapes and sizes. each, with a time and a place they've been promised to be. a promise is everything to old dominion, because it means everything to you.

various voices: we get to celebrate being together. tell a joke, share stories. what everybody has done over the past year. the togetherness of that moment. just really celebrating each other. ( ♪ ) vo: it's a new day. because now updated covid vaccines protect against both the original covid virus and omicron. just in time to say, “oh, you bet i'll be there!” a whole lot more.

beyond ordinary etfs. visit foxbusiness.com/"barron's roundtable". jack: we asked is china and investable? closer to home i got the same question about facebook, excuse me, meta. jack: i don't think the new name is working for them. the decline in daily active users, revenue guidance is terrible, meta used to be, facebook used to be the top 5, news by market value, it is no longer in the top 20. the real challenge is an advertising slump and apple's privacy changes derailing

facebook technology. mark zuckerberg is spending $10 billion a year on this super double secret meta verse project everyone swears is not just a videogame without shooting robot dinosaurs or going to meetings with avatars. i am not seeing it. i don't think other investors are seeing it. if you can go the other direction, put more dinosaurs in my day you would have something. ben: jack: you are sticking to your guns on healthcare. ben: i am late to the stock. it has been dead money for 6 years ever since they cured hepatitis c. right now it's hiv business is looking strong and the stock valuation explains that. the oncology basis for free. it has won a lot but something to keep an eye on.

jack: healthcare and energy look good. you have two ideas for us. carleton: root for the phillies in the world series, a finance focused show, take a look at visa this week. despite the worries we have, doing a new buyback program picked by nick. jack: a sponsor of athletic events. great ideas, all of you. check us out on elon musk' much, thank you for watching we hope you have a good weekend and join us again monday night. >> from this talk studio in new york city, this is mario bartiromo wall street. liz: hello every one. welcome to the book about positions you for the weekend.