>> show me the money! show me the money! >> show me the money!

show me the money! neil: these days it might be show me away to save billions of dollars of money because élan musk is looking at laying off half the twitter staff. that might just be for starters, someone who stepped into the job that already made some big moves. kelly o'grady following at all and she was from the first time this was a rumored deal in los angeles, what is going on now? >> reporter:'s first week as ceo is as chaotic as his month-long takeover process. a number of changes indicate he's focused on monetization as much as the free-speech vision, the billionaire confirming the platform will charge $8 a month for verification and that will begin as soon as monday. roughly 300,000 blue check users would have a grace period to transfer over but some critics are bulking at the idea.

aoc tweeting, quote, laughing at a billionaire earnestly trying to sell people on the idea that free speech is actually an $8 subscription plan. musk respond to your feedback is appreciated, now pay $8, highlighting she could use twitter for free. speaking to industry experts, at its heart it seems to charge those on twitter who post, the blue check signals authenticity and also boost content in replies and search. if you are a worker who likes to read you can access the twitter for free but those who are most engaged will be incentivized to pay and that could be antithetical to the digital town square if users dominate the conversation. and he is seeking profitability by cost cutting. sources tell me layoffs are coming imminently. in a report sites half of staff could be gone as soon as tomorrow so the focus on cost cutting and monetization that is crucial, last year twitter's

interest expense, $50 million, over that, going to balloon interest expense to $1 billion a year. that profitability is crucial. neil: thank you. 's chief correspondent has been busy putting these problems together, what they meant for the markets is a wash today but a lot of rumblings underneath. connell: yesterday's commentary from jay powell at the federal reserve and in the bond market the treasury selling off a 2 year yield having been pushed to its highest level since 2,007. if we look at the benchmark 10 year treasury yield we are up 415 now, in treasury. we are in an environment where rates go higher.

the rates may be higher than we originally anticipated by he and his friends are done with the job of getting rates to where they want to be. as the saying goes anytime we deal with the federal reserve is data dependent and we have new data we could go over and a big piece of data tomorrow. today on weekly jobless claims a relatively no number, 217,000 versus the estimate of 220,000 and that indicates the labor market remains tight as it has been. it has cooled off a little bit, the job market earlier on the year but not really that much. we do have some headlines of today related to layoffs. of 14% cut in its workforce, interesting what the ceo had to say, we messed up here, costs

go up and we misjudged how much the economy grows and cut back on jobs and the wall street journal as well, uber's rival, lyft is cutting 15%, the second round of job cuts we've seen the last few months so we see a little bit of this especially in tech and that gets us into tomorrow, 200,000 in terms of estimate of nonfarm jobs, and 3.6% unemployment would be a tick up just barely from the month before. it would be the weakest job growth since december of 2,020 but as we are saying the labor market is really tight, unemployment, 14.7%. neil: thank you for that.

the chief economics correspondent, you can help me make sense of something that changes by the second when we hear jerome powell speak. first, 315 points, started detailing, just paraphrasing here, it harkens back when you have these moments where the federal reserve chairman would speak after a crucial meeting. i wonder if jerome powell wishes we were back in those days. >> monetary policy has evolved a lot. the fed is talking about what they will do in the future and that is a way to tire financial conditions even though people back to march haven't raised rates at all but trying to tighten financial conditions, talking what they were going to do. the fed is not totally

comfortable raising interest rates in large 75 basis point chucks. you raise the risk of going too far when making big moves at every meeting, wanted to get off of the 75 basis point expressway and it is not clear, powell said they hadn't made any decisions but there was a strong inference in the policy statement they don't want to do 75s at the same time. they don't want to ignite a big rally when they signal they might step down to 50 in december because they want to keep financial conditions tight. that is how you get through the process of getting inflation out of the economy. there's a rally every time powell says we might do 50 instead of 75, it is counterproductive. you saw a dovish reaction at 2:00 and powell said just

because we might slow things down doesn't mean we stop at a sooner or lower end point. neil: it used to be the fed kept its eyes closely on the market and paul volcker did not. i am wondering if the posture of the fed's if markets are happy we are not, we don't want that. >> i don't think if the markets are happy we are not but the fed needs to tighten financial conditions to stay tight. we want to see a slowdown in the interest rate sensitive sectors of the economy. oh 7% mortgage rate will do that. we see a big increase in cancellation rates for homebuilders in the sunbelt because higher mortgage rates are crippling housing activity. they want to see asset prices come down. they've come down quite a bit this.

neil: do you sense they are willing to roll the dice, they produce the slowdown, better that inflation does that? >> absolutely. that is what you heard from jay powell. the risks of not doing enough are greater than the risks of doing too much. if you don't do enough you just have inflation, you have to go higher later. the concern you heard from yesterday is what if they back off now, in january and a year from now inflation is going back to 6% and they have 2 get back on the horse, markets aren't going to like that. 's idea is get it over with. if you do too much you can always cut. if you don't do enough, nobody will be happy if that is what they do. neil: you are right to point

out implications of this policy in real estate and mortgage rates but as far as getting inflation under control or showing signs that it is denting inflation we haven't seen that. the criticism, you guys are overdoing it, here we are, the 4% funds rate or quadruple where we were at the beginning of the year. is there a sense here the fed is quite willing to roll the dice even if data confirms they overdid it. >> that is what you hear hear from powell. he risk making 2 mistakes. you can make the mistakes of underestimating inflation. do you want to make the same mistake twice? or you can make a different mistake which is doing too much. in a perfect world the fed

wouldn't make mistakes but sometimes you have to pick which one you take greater risk on. the way the fed is approaching it right now and if they do too much, he uses the euphemism use our tools but that means a rate cut. if they go up they can cut. last year the argument was it is hard if you are stuck with 0 interest rates, the economy stimulated, they were willing to keep things easier longer because they saw the asymmetry in the opposite direction. now they see a different asymmetry, not as bad as the risks of hundred doing it. neil: it is around 4%, thank you very much. chief economic correspondence, if you are trying to time this

listen to some sage advice when he famously says time in the market beats timing the market but people invariably want to time this market after this. ♪ when the devil finished johnny so you're pretty good old sun ♪ sit down and that chair right there and let me show you how it is done ♪ ♪ the devils in the house with the rising sun ♪ ♪ ♪

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tell your doctor about an infection or symptoms... or if you've had a vaccine or plan to. tell your doctor if your crohn's disease symptoms... develop or worsen. serious allergic reactions may occur. watch me. neil: 5 days and counting, the interest in this thing amazes me. i've covered elections for so long, these off election years and this has interests you would normally reserve for a presidential one, all you need to know. georgia hotspot for the gubernatorial race. what is the latest? >> brian kemp, the incumbent governor about to hold a rally at this barbecue place, he and democrat stacy abrams ramping out there get out the vote efforts, neither one can relax

before the polls open on tuesday because this race is tight. a new fox news poll shows kemp leading abrams by 6 points but the survey suggests neither candidate surpasses the 50% threshold required in georgia to avoid a december 6th runoff. abrams is prepared for runoff but is hopeful for a win on tuesday. she bases that on heavy early turnout among black voters and a vicious efforts to register and motivate new voters. >> we know voters who are unaffiliated, voting at a higher rate, we know they are not included which i always said is a tight race. >> reporter: governor kemp is running an aggressive game to reach communities in the metro atlanta suburbs. georgia republicans learn hard lessons when they lost both u.s. senate seats and the state

turned blue. >> we produce a result of that, there's the most significant turnout, grassroots mobilization effort in the state's history. >> both kemp and abrams are reminding their supporters the poll that matters most is the one happening on tuesday. neil: say republicans succeed in recapturing the house of representatives, given tight elections that could go their way, they take the senate as well, mixed read we are getting from republicans, what they might do about the ongoing war in ukraine and whether the us will play the role of financing 70% of that. general keith kellogg with us. we have chatted about this before. there's temperament building among people like kevin mccarthy and others who say it's not just a blank check a,

tried to clarify that saying i wasn't abandoning ukraine but what do you think? >> there is a valid concern that comes to accountability. day 253 in europe, no in state defined. we haven't talked about one. we are throwing money at it. economically, humanitarian aid and military, that's a big number but breaking it down to an hourly rate, spending $2.5 million in ukraine, with no accountability. the economic institute did a survey and you hit on it, paying trouble but all the european countries are doing combined. here's where the president needs to go and republicans need to go. they need to explain why we are

doing this. shouldn't you be in ukraine? take a page from what george marshall did in 1947 when he went to harvard university and explained the european recovery plan, why was it in america's best interest to do this, nobody has done that and it needs to be done for the american people and nowhere is going. neil: the fear that was raised in ukraine as if we dial things back, not like other european players provide much help of their own. in that environment, what do you say? >> we can't force them to pay more money out of their accounts. they should be doing it. with gdp latvia is putting more

money in than france is. they need to do it and that is where president biden needs to job own these countries to put more money into and why it is important but no one has been able to articulate it. i don't see people saying this is why it is in america's best interests. there are good reasons to do it and there need to be breaks and accountability out there. uk according to the freedom house, nonprofit judges, coming down democratic institutions, it is a transitional government. there is a lot of question about the corruption they had in that government. the american people need to know that money is going to a good cause. neil: it is good catching up with you. i want to pass along israeli prime minister has conceded the election to former prime

minister benjamin netanyahu who is forming a coalition government in the 120 seat knesset. he and his sympathetic parties will have 62 seats so the devil is in the details who becomes a member of the new government but for the former prime minister, 12 years back-and-forth on the job he can add to that record-setting pace pretty soon. more after this.

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neil: we are down 76 points. what did the fed mean, the fight going against inflation indefinitely? will we see rates return even though we are below what rates are returning. let's go to kingfisher, the man -- can fi fisher, -- can fi fik fie fin fisher, t successful investors on the planet. >> you are so nice to me. neil: that you get your take on the inflation battle. your views are all over the world, that inflation has been unprecedented but it is not that black and white. the fed is still so worried about inflation and continuing to raise rates to fight it. where are you on this? >> i always thought the fed doesn't know what they are

doing. basically the input cost to inflation have rolled over and headed down for quite some time. think of the commodity prices, shipping costs, energy prices are all down. the input costs are down but it takes time to work through the system. the supply-chain, not all solved but better than they were. bill clinton had that famous line about what the definition is. it depends what the definition of transitory is, the snake eats the big rodent, not feeding the inflation drag but the suggestion isn't all completed. how long it takes is a speculation. neil: before it starts, by

definition, could the federal reserve be overdoing it even now? >> i think that the wrong way to deal with it because i don't believe what the fed is doing kills inflation. i don't believe, i have said this before, that the fed can kneecap the economy by raising rates the way it is because right now it cost them almost nothing. when the fed raises short rates it increases the incentive of banks to make short-term loans as the spread gets bigger. as the spread gets bigger there is more incentive for short-term loans. they are lending money to people who spend it. if you look at year over year loan growth you can't have a

recession while loan growth is robust. mortgage loans are down. otherwise loan growth is gangbusters. neil: that is a sound economy. >> that is why the economy, gross margins are still strong, bank lending in america and around the world is robust. the fact of the matter is we have strong job growth which we saw last week. twitter is going to lay people off. so the reality. neil: there are a number of fortune 4000 companies speeding up layoffs and i understand what you are saying, 10. 7 million jobs go begging and bad history. i am wondering what comes of this experiment, whatever you want to call it, quadrupling interest rates.

>> powell when you become head of the fed, everything you ever knew, powell thinks he can't figure out if he's volcker or vader, but what he is trying to do, that translates into netanyahu bear market that keeps coming back. neil: where does this go? you always tell investors your too short-term oriented, be careful. the better part of the year they've seen their investments evaporate and many want to just quit, i talked to friends saying amazon and apple, they have been decimated.

what do you tell those people? >> earlier in the show, time in the market is important more than timing the market. others said the stock market is a place to turn the impatient to the patient and the fact is in periods like this it is true. the fact is inflation is a longer-term persistent problem because in the past couple years we ate a lot of inflation. it will, i've said this on your show before, if inflation were a real problem long bonds will be higher than they are. neil: are they always? did they send a false signal? >> a little bit but they are better than wild guesses, usually people guesses. yesterday kind of cute, look

yesterday at the lunacy powell engaged in in his press conference after they did what they did and that was a combination of greenspan speak and darth vader talking and the reality is the stock market had a big move. neil: who do you trust more? >> for this issue of inflation the bond market. neil: there are a lot of people speaking, i'm safer in bonds than in stocks. neil: if you think about aggregate bond indexes this year, last year, not only domestically but globally, this is a time period were bond

prices and stock prices are extraordinarily, bonds are not good in this period haven where as in most markets that hasn't been the case. the fact is the friends you cited earlier having big loads shouldn't have been so loaded in individual things like that. neil: you don't have losses until you sell. >> something that's not perfectly true, some arguments against parts of this. in aggregate things that tend to drop the most in a bear market, to the other side, tend to bounce the most early on so the fact is that is why patience is a virtue and also impossible for people to do because they start out to be a

passive investor. neil: time in the market versus timing in the market. when i was a younger guy i could take time. time you get to lunch tomorrow, what do you tell people it is adequate time in this market? >> if you are a 60-year-old, married to a 58-year-old which is pretty common, you will have your investments work for you for 20, 25 years, for one of you at least. in that time you will have a lot more bear markets than bull markets and higher prices and next month, the month after march, we can debate all that. what i will tell you, if you look at this period ahead midterm, the most consistently

profitable period in stock market history -- neil: regardless of which party? does it do better? something republicans take back the house and maybe the senate. >> gridlock. neil: you great gridlock either way. >> hard-core gridlock is better. the fact of the matter, take the house, take the senate. probably when you look at the history of senate elections republicans have tended to outvote their polling number by 4%. real clear politics in their poll projections dozen estimate of that your viewers might take a look at, voting is behind in new hampshire but based on the way they traditionally voted in

the last paul, if they vote the way they normally do compared to last paul. neil: the senate candidate, a number of other close races. does it make a difference to you? $1 million to greg abbott in texas. i am not here to judge you but i am wondering. >> who will win in a landslide. neil: does that make a differ differkdifferedifferndifferenc difference to fisher the investor? the gridlock would? >> gridlock reduces as political risk aversion. a long time ago the average american, as much as they would like again, we demonstrated that overseas brits and germans hate it as much as they like

gains. that the methodology. the fact of the matter, people 8 losses more than they like gains. in politics you have big legislative changes, big bills whether it is taxes or property rights or regulation. in the first two years of the president's terms, all this legislative stuff where most of the legislation happens you get rising political risk aversion, upset about things going on in the last two years, that is true. neil: does it make a difference to ken fisher the investor if a republican wins two years from now? >> i am a big fan of gridlock. i don't know how that will pan out. you ask about biden versus

trump two years from now. two years from now. neil: you politely refuse to answer my question. would it make -- you are right. >> it isn't what it is. >> if it is donald trump. >> i don't think it will be donald trump. i do not think it will be donald trump. if it is biden, it is pathetic. neil: for a guy who likes gridlock and republicans maintain control if that were to happen with the senate and house. >> it might not be that. neil: you like gridlock, you're perfect the democrats staying in the white house? >> could they? got to take a look at it. where bill clinton was as president, are we going to get that? i don't want to go hypothetical 2 years in advance because it is not real. the stock market will not price that.

investors, what the markets do more or less over the next year back to my point when you are this far down into a netanyahu type bear market, far enough in, you are a year outcome almost always positive, two years out always positive. neil: we are through the worst of it? >> you could have a panic cascading down. we talked about capitulation. neil: it doesn't have to be capitulation. >> i don't believe we will have capitulation this time. safe havens are not safe. the market i always call the great humiliate her, as much money as possible as long as possible and the fact of that is a great way to do that is have the beginnings of a stealth bull market where people are waiting for capitulation as it takes off. neil: we have an overdone bear market. is it overdone?

>> a recession, that's not a guarantee. very expensive to get. neil: it could fall another 20%. you don't see that. >> i go back to what i said before as a way to think about that. you have to see loan growth taper off for that to happen. if you don't have loan growth that's not coming on. might loan growth taper off you got to see loan growth taper off, you have to see people not actually want net to grab those jobs that elon musk will let go of twitter. i have said this to you before, underestimating musk is a fools errand. i don't know what his plans are, don't know what he wants to do but the fact of the matter is twitter is not going anywhere fast, it needed somebody to steer things.

i don't understand how he can be as unfocused and do as many things as he does. i believe i could do it. neil: you are both brilliant. i asked this as a personal question but if i could revisit it, you have 200 billion under management and the market and all that, yourself last segment. to talk about it if you want. 6 billion or so. do you keep track of that? forget about what is under fisher. to yourself personally do you ever look at this and i am down $3 billion? >> no. neil: you are laughing too much. i think you do. >> i don't know what i'm really worth. i don't. i know something zion and have a sense of what they are worth but in aggregate a lot of where i am is liquid and don't know what that is worth. neil: you sound like you have

investments. amazon stock like elon musk, what is going on with tesla. >> the fact of the matter is i have had a very simple life. i have been married 52 years. some people have been married in 52 years to a lot of different people. i got to get home tonight. very lucky in life. i am particularly like he with my friends. neil: you didn't show any promise with your wife, had no idea. >> i don't know why. neil: the reason i want to get into this quickly, we are in the obsessive stage. neil: when i was a kid in college, i botta piece of land,

a place that needed to be remodeled, doing demolition, built a treehouse. i cut off the end of my finger, 1938 black and decker safety guard on it and the reality is i did a lot of stuff when i was younger. i had a great life. neil: a lot of people determined by how much money they have, they get frantic. what do you tell them? >> patients is a virtue. if you are patient you will be worth more money. if you are not patient, you know what will rogers said, they go up and you sell them and then somebody said if they don't go up, don't buy them. neil: the market goes up over time. >> you are not buying stock, the market, the aggregate

ownership of capitalism over time, fundamentally with time bear markets turn to bull markets. the concept people talking about does not occur, never been a high point to low point and it was lower 10 years later, 2000-2010. but that is the worst possible time in the world. neil: always good seeing you. he is the real deal, step back a little bit, being italian american i'm always doing that but that is just me. stick around.

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this 7 million jobs that are not filled though we are getting word out of amazon that it is pausing hirings, the company is saying it is re-examining all positions. it is what is going on for a sharper degree where elon musk is poised to layout 3700 workers. the technology flying high. and the reality of stock is such, getting out of dodge. a little more after this. ♪ ♪ vo: it's a new day. because covid vaccines just got a big update.

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welcome to 30 rock! join xfinity rewards for free on the xfinity app today. our thanks, your rewards. first psoriasis, then psoriatic arthritis. even walking was tough. i had to do something. i started cosentyx®. cosentyx can help you move, look, and feel better... by treating the multiple symptoms of psoriatic arthritis. don't use if you're allergic to cosentyx. before starting...get checked for tuberculosis. an increased risk of infections some serious... and the lowered ability to fight them may occur. tell your doctor about an infection or symptoms... or if you've had a vaccine or plan to. tell your doctor if your crohn's disease symptoms... develop or worsen. serious allergic reactions may occur. watch me. >> by definition, but the federal reserve be overdoing it even now? >> i think that is the wrong way to deal with it, i don't believe what the fed is doing

now killed inflation. i don't believe, i said this before, the fed can kneecap the economy by raising rates the way it is. right now the banks cost them almost nothing. when the fed raises short rates it increases the incentive of banks to make short-term loans because the spread gets bigger. neil: i was thinking of the biden and kneecap remark and wondered what charlie gasparino thinks of that, the idea the fed will roll the dice here. what do you say? charles: the anti-italian american league. neil: how are you, my friend? charles: there has been that. i heard that from a lot of people, the fed doesn't control interest rates, this is a bond

market function and bond traders going to trade against economies and fiscal policy as they did in great britain, the uk and a massive run on bonds. i think he underestimates what the fed can do and it is psychological impact on the markets and there was some language in the fed minutes that suggested they would pivot and they would say something about pivoting in his commentary and came out and it is too soon to talk about pivot and the markets went down dramatically. it was a 1000 point swing. the fed plays a role, maybe it is not but it is there, they

can't control certain levers of liquidity which they are doing. this is a complicated mess. the fed doesn't control the economy which suggests they didn't infuse it with massive amounts of liquidity. they did and now they reduce that liquidity and selling bonds. neil: the unwinding is giving people this. charles: what is going to be interesting, you touched on this with ken, what goes on in washington. they are probably going to get the house. the senate is a big if. if they get the senate it is going to be game on, one company, under massive scrutiny would be black raqqa.

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who loses 138 pounds in nine months? i did! golo's a lifestyle change and you make the change and it stays off. (soft music) neil: i leave you with the dow down 95 points if payne doesn't screw it up we'll see what happens here. to you, my friend. charles: the market was moving higher, neil. you and ken fisher, it was like socrates. neil: blame us, fine, fine. charles: forget the market