weeks. >> sure, one thing i'm looking for is right after the election in the coming weeks and months, i believe were going to see more third-party candidates so-called independent thinking that neither biden or trump can get over 45 or 46% and we go back to ross perot 30 years to go to see somebody who didn't win electoral votes but helped usher in the bill clinton presidency. >> just briefly you think that's an independent candidate that would have a serious chance if it were biden and trump again? >> no i think that was serious chance of being a spoiler. >> that is it for us this week, we will be back next week on the ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪

♪. jack: welcome to barron's roundtable we get behind the headlines and prepare for the week ahead. i am jack otter. hiked interest rates again this week in an effort to cool inflation. bond investor greg peters on where the economy stands now and what he is telling clients. and later elon musk slashes jobs at twitter as he scrambles to cover the cost of his massive leveraged buyout. how will the deal affect tesla? we began always with three things we think investors ought to be thinking about right now. stocks took a hit after the fed raised rates with more hikes to come. rallied on the solid october jobs report. what it all means for investors. big tech stocks got hammered and could have further to fall. why it is not safe to jump back in quite yet. and there was a mad rush to buy eye bonds before the treasury reset the interest rate. why it was actually better to wait. i'm barron's roundtable my colleagues ben levisohn, carleton english, and jack hough so been fed no shortage of news

to chew on this week. while the net was down on the week, friday and there's a nice little rally. >> a very nice rally but it looks like that might not hold up. but it did. craig: you always tell us that, ben, you're always right. >> are dropped and then it bounced. it look like a reaction to the job support which very good headlight number more jobs and expected. but the unemployment rate jumped 3.7% from 3.5. but it's what the fed would want to see is a higher unemployment rate. they look at that really look at the news about china may be reopening and sent stocks higher. if you look at the market overall this week it was just terrible. the nasdaq even the rally on friday still finish down on the 6% for the week. that's really down to the fed. the fed is raising rates between to keep raising rates for child going to raise rates until about five and a quarter% struggling to keep raising rates until something breaks because it needs inflation to come down for an easy job market to weekend but so far were not seeing any signs of that happening. jack: at least the reason an

employment rate it went up is because more people are entering the jobs market. grasping for happy strikes me as a positive on inflation. of course with the fed is doing, bond yields going up. talk about the bond market right now. it's kind of amazing the two year at a multi- decade high. in the recession signal seemed crystal-clear. >> and had a year high this past week. yet up over 14.5% the tenure just does not want to stay below 4% it's four-point to percent. we have not seen rates like this for very long time. more scary for the market with the yield curve is inverted for the most part just all the way across the curve that's a recession signal probably over the next six months or so. we are likely to see a recession. what's scary about the stock market most of the decline we've seen is evaluations coming down. it's not really pricing and fundamental weakness yet. that could be the next leg lo lower. jack: if we see recession earnings are likely to come down for next week a very important number the october cpi nothing

to hope for there, right? what's i don't think so. people are going to look at this the rally might rally into it. it still expected to be 8% on the headline. it is ridiculously hybrid a hard time imagining how much lower it can come and there would actually get the fed to change course right now. jack: bennett mentioned the tech stocks haven't such a horrible week, carlton the spread between dow and tech stocks was 4.5%. that is really unusual. >> it is. there may be signs of more pain to come. >> you guys have no good news today. >> i am trying it's the weekend we can be happy. but to ben's point earlier when you look at the evaluations coming down the evaluations i feel come down a proportion of the broader market. usually there's more to, special with what the fed is doing. earnings logic tech companies now. it's been a bit of a mixed bag. year over year in the communications space we see tech

earnings coming down about 25%. when you look at the s&p 500 if you exclude energy which we know is having a good year earnings they are down about 3.4%. we really do see a lot of weakness in tech right now. jack: name a couple companies that stood out. >> there is no clear path on what is happening here. so for instance during the week you had paypal and square post earnings. the same industry you'd expect the same reaction the stock. paypal beaten a slightly lower than expected stock tank. square did better than expected stocks soared in friday's trading pretty look at the difference of netflix which very well versus roku streaming industry. as an investor your light cannot go into the space at all? should it may be just on the sidelines? what the stock pickers market you gotta pick right. jack appeared. >> i got good news not a lot of it. jack: 6.9% was not a love question i. >> you missed out our calling our pal writes a story entitled you should have a win.

i that 75% off butter fingers from halloween. i bonds inflation protected bonds they are like tips for you can hold them for up to 30 ye years. there is a 9.6% yield locked in for the first six months they scramble to buy these things demand was so fiercely treasury direct had website had trouble keeping up. that is gone it's below 7%. this new fifth component it's 0.4% to break it up a calculator. i know it doesn't sound exciting you hold these things for long enough you can come out better off on the new bonds in the old ones. there's a 10,000 hour max per year buying these things with some exceptions. if you are rich this is not going to do a lot for you. the silver lining is you are rich. [laughter] 60.4% is added on top the six and a half. >> it's affixed to matter what happens with inflation. jack: that my favorite thing about this little guy does not do as well as wall street.

but in this case only ten grand prix goldman sach's cannot do this, the regular investor can it's pretty exciting but let's be happy but will end on that note. meanwhile the fed is still fighting inflation. continued rate hikes continues the inflation. i'm asking greg peterson next. among my patients, i often see them have teeth sensitivity as well as gum issues. does it worry me? absolutely. sensodyne sensitivity & gum gives us the dual action effect that really takes care of both our teeth sensitivity as well as our gum issues. there's no question it's something that i would recommend. in a recent clinical study, patients using salonpas patch

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we had this week the federal reserve at six consecutive rate hike in the battle against inflation and may have to raise rates more than expected but where does the economy stand now? how should investors prepare going forward? co-chief investment officer gregory peters adjoins me know thank you for coming on the show. >> this week chairman powell

suggests they may hike rates higher than expected and then leave them there for longer. how close are we to the peak of the rate cycle question mckay know you do not have a crystal ball but what are you thinking about that? >> we are closer to the end than the beginning to face the obvious. it's humble to me what has transpired over the last year were the market and investors completely underestimated the path of inflation. the path of the fed rate hiking cycle. it's really important to tell. i think with the powell said, once again tried this is not a quick fix. rates are going to be higher for longer. >> the funny thing about rate hikes of course is it takes a wild bird there is a so-called lag before it shows up in the data. do you see any indication yet beyond maybe housing and used car prices that it is actually having an effect? >> there's a lag effect for s

sure. it's much more of an economy today it did when the statement was first made. i do think the underlying economy is quite robust. quite strong. i think the fed has its work cut out to slow down the economy here. you have seen some weakening in housing more than the mortgage application. hi and used car prices came down post pandemic. jack: so i was of the great hope here is the mythical soft landing. it seems as if that's going get harder and harder to achieve every day. what do you think, are we destined? what's we are not destined but it does seem probable. we have a probability of a recession it is hard to think a way out. as the fed and global central banks are raising interest rates to slow down the economy, to raise unemployment and call

inflation rate that is the formula. the underlying strength in the economy the reverse outcome is the fed has to do more not less and raise the risk of over tightening. jack: given that outlook what's the best investor playbook? on the one hand you could grab nice yields above 4% risk-free in ones and twos. on the other hand you longer on the yield curve and if that recession comes you still get a nice yield but also some capitol gains. >> it is a timing game but the answer is both. getting out in the front end of the curve, capturing it is the preferred habitat. given all of the risk of a recession. at the same time if you believe the narrative the economy is moving into a recession then where you also want to be is is and longer duration problems

unchecked. the answer. [inaudible] state sounds good but let's look in optimistic note saw in a report recently. the possibility that we could get to a place that looks a little bit like 1982. in 2024 -- 2025 could we be at a place where rates are high enough, inflation is squashed we get a nice long path of lowered rates? >> it's possible it's not probable but it is possible. we could put that out as a possibility to get investors thinking about different scenarios and alternate outcomes. i will say the underlying strength in the economy has been much more robust than initial believed. that's less of an effect than we also thought. the economy is doing really well it you can have a higher economic environment his and at

the same time see inflation naturally come down. jack: we can dream greg peters thank you so much. after one full week elon musk/thousands of job in the social media platform. how is leadership style at twitter could affect tesla. that is next. ♪ my relationship with my credit cards wasn't good. i got into debt in college and, no matter how much i paid, it followed me everywhere. between the high interest, the fees... i felt trapped. debt, debt, debt. so i broke up with my credit card debt and consolidated it into a low-rate personal loan from sofi. i finally feel like a grown-up. break up with bad credit card debt. get a personal loan with no fees, low fixed rates, and borrow up to $100k. go to sofi.com to view your rate. sofi. get your money right. ♪

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♪ ♪. jack: gilad musk wasting no time revamping twitter laying off thousands of workers after just one week as ceo. success wood burners is a genius but if you got bogged down that could tarnish the rest of his empire including the crown jewel of tesla birds are jack, tell us what musk has at stake here. not only is it twitter it is

tesla. what can you do to turn twitter around? what is not going to go broke you're not going to be $30 billion at one point and go broke up pretty sure. i just paid $44 billion for a company probably worth 20 billion or less. other.com publicly traded companies get most of their money from ads appeared initially you've got fresh debt on the company. maybe somewhere in the order of $70 million in extra interest payments for you have to cover a pickup the cap operating margins were already subtly negative recently. the fastest way you do that i hate to say that is at layoffs for that's what's happening now. you do the math you might need to would lay off one third of the workforce to cover that interest. we hear reports about half the workforce has already started but then you've got to get growth. you have to get a handle on to most advertisers that worried about brand safety. you have to communicate and get

them comfortable. now subscriptions twitter it makes 90% of their money from advertising so you can do subscriptions. there's plenty of opportunity there it's very important to the people who use it for their many people out there who are willing to pay and you can combat some and misinformation. jack: some people like to make money on that platform so twitter will take a piece of it. soap musk a clearly an engineering genius. the guy makes rockets that land standing up for its richest guy in the world pretty does not always display the best jud judgment. what you think about this guy being the steward of the public square? >> outlook, elon musk as america's new favorite wedge issue. so how do you answer that question depends how you feel about politics and lot of other things. i will say whatever you think of it, some people say he is and move it to the right spray spoke with scott galloway at nyu. he sold his tesla he doesn't like what is hearing for musk. now he might be right or wrong

what he views about his politics about perception matters. when you look at twitter it does not have as big of an audience as facebook and some others. and it leans to the left. the users there is only 23% of the u.s. adults but it's 30 something% of those who lean democrat in 15 points lower for those who lean republicans. tesla same thing. the customer based on trent -based skus to the left. if there is a perception out there they are being controlled by the boss of these companies i don't think it's going to be great for business pretty think you need to get a handle on that. but certainly how you feel about whatever politics is doing is up to you that's in a favorite argument. very interesting question. out you cover text while tesla as your beet precooked is a key risk for the company. i do think tesla needs to start being more tesla and less elon. the company is never spent any thing on be basically the power

of his personality is all that is been required. in terms of risk to investors i almost think of it in terms of how much money would they be required to spend question of this could one or $2 billion a year when its operating profit notice to the ad agencies but long-term is probably a good thing. i think that is the key issue. i do not worry so much about the cars. i don't think people buy ford because ford is american express sells a lot of trucks they are objectively the best truck support i've driven a lot of eat these effects you might be too distracted running twitter he won't be able to run tesla effectively. there may be a flipside to it there's having such a colorful character at the helm of tesla could be a hindrance, what is your take on that? >> that is the big question. one does elon start to fade into the background? and the company matures and tesla being more tesla than

tesla is the e on it. it's almost a bill gates type of question. the problem is there's definitely a premium and tesla stock because elon is elon. tesla traits that roughly 40 times 23 earnings as twice as much as a porsche it's way more than any traditional automaker. so managing that, elon a preemie as he fades and tesla matures is like a big question but an unanswerable one at this point. ask the other side can tesla keep making these great cars if musk is not hands on and involved in this? >> or the things i was most interesting report in the story is no one, the bulls, the bears investors think that musk distraction is a risk for their worried more about the brands. they all believe the talents in the engineering depths in the way the company is organized with cross functional teams solving problems, they believe there is no problem. i think about risk of will it

fade as some of the other people maybe drew is the number two man at tesla as he starts to be more prominent on conference calls and conferences i think that risk will fade and i have become convinced the management and the engineering talent is there despite what musk may be doing with this time. jack: al, thanks for that insight i do not reach weeding conspiracy theories but if you want your back and pinned against the seat of a car, nothing like driving a tesla. as a volatile week on wall street for you guys have some great ideas going into next week. jack looks at the layoff we are starting to see biotech companies. that i is next. this is financial security. and lincoln financial solutions will help you get there. as you plan, protect and retire. ♪ (vo) what can a nationwide 5g network from t-mobile for business do for your business? unlock new insights and efficiency-right now.

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strong jobs number. we have seen these tech layoffs. you mention scott galloway earlier. insist that patagonia investor session just beginning that were talking about? >> that is an image there but i do not know. coin base, robin hood, lift, striped, all these companies announcing big layoffs. it really does contrast with that solid jobs number that we had it. it's easy to look at these companies and say that is just a one time go, go, growers for that's just tech it's going to be confined there. maybe but these piece of pole also spend everywhere by the going to be out there now competing for other jobs. i think it is something worth keeping an eye on. we have talked for a a while about quiet quitting. i think it's time for boisterous getting your rear end back to work if you aren't anything close to what is industries. jack: certainly is a lot of opportunities in the service visit hotels, restaurants, everyone is hiring. maybe if tech takes it in the chin some people keep their

jobs. assign for actionable ideas i will start with you carlton. it is exciting. >> it is exciting. i should say that she should find excitement and other parts of your life. keep your portfolio pretty simple unpredictable in this market. our colleague jacob took a look at met life. again, not the go-go tech industry. >> did you say metlife? >> were talking snoopy get dividends 2.8%. some visibility into forward earnings. the stock is accelerated per there's still room to run there. there also drink vivax. in this climate i prefer to have cash in hand and dream of cash in the future. >> with. jack: with higher interest rates and looking more attractive and might sell more, ben give us more. >> am looking at conocophillips. the stock is done almost too well this year hate bringing it up. it's up 80% in 2022. but friday reported earnings in the earnings were great to be all of the numbers, raise the dividend, buy back more stock at

drop more than 1% for conoco that counts as a dip you want to buy. there just is not been a lot of it. these stocks are so strong energy stocks are minting money. and they are still relatively cheap conoco traits under ten times earnings. and as carlton mentioned earlier energy stocks are the only thing really earning enough money to keep smp earnings growing process is still the place to be in konica looks to be a good one. spit for thought ben thank you carlton and jack. check out the six edition of karen's roundtable.com but do not forget to follow us on barron's online. that's all for us will see you next week at barron's roundtable. ♪ elizabeth macdonald. you want to "the evening edit" on fox business. that's going to do it for us, thank you and have a wonderful weekend. >> from the fox studios in new york city this is "maria bartiromo's wall street"