neil: so many contests, so little time as we melt away the hours before people go to the polls in-person tomorrow, tens of millions of americans in what is amounting to a record of early voting for mid-term election year, and in fact, not close for any election year but the backdrop is really focused right now on three crucial states. we've got you covered in each and every one with hillary

vaughn in new hampshire, we have jeff flock looking at the developments in pennsylvania, connell mcshane in georgia. let's first kickoff with hillary and what she's seeing in manchester. hillary? reporter: hey, neil. when it comes to inflation in this race, this has boiled down to two big issues. the cost of things like energy, how to heat your home, and the cost of things like eggs, how to eat. we were in peterboro new hampshire yesterday with deputy ran candidate don bulldoc, it says due to the rising cost of eggs $1 will be added to every order with eggs this is something voters are see seeing everywhere they go and his opponent senator maggie hassen is to blame. >> she thinks she represents the values? well, the values isn't by inflation. it's certainly not having eggs so expensive now that it's added

to the bill. reporter: hassen wrapped up a weekend with democratic all-star s and made the case that what's at stake is abortion rights and democracy, saying both of those are on the ballot but when it comes to inflation, she says she has the receipts, pushing her report to lower prices bypassing things like the inflation reduction act, and the chips act. she says, have delivered lower costs and will continue to. >> how do you convince voters that because food costs were risings under your watch as senator that if you get a second term they aren't going to continue to rise. what's going to change? >> you know, you have to take a step back and understand what is driving inflation. we are working to lower the costs that we can lower right now. it's why i want to suspend the gas tax. reporter: but bulldock says hassen has not stood up to the president's policies. if elected he will he says. >> we got to put pressure on

him, and we need people down there, that are going to do it. absent that, it's not going to, nothing will change, and she has made it clear, she's not going to change anything. reporter: and neil, we just got a chance to talk with the senator moments before coming on with you and i asked her about the president's plan, or threat, to raise taxes on oil companies, if they don't do more to lower gas prices. i asked her if she would support that if that's a good idea and she told me that there needs to be something like that to incentivize these companies to do more to bring costs down. neil? neil: depends on whether incentivizing is the same thing as strong-arpaioing. hillary, thank you very much, hillary vaughn in new hampshire. let's go to pennsylvania right now, barnburner of a race going on for the senate that could decide ultimately the makeup of the united states senate really depends on just a couple of counties if you think about it. jeff flock is there with more. hey, jeff. reporter: yes, this is one of them, neil, we're in lucerne county.

the winds of change maybe blowing through pennsylvania. in this county they certainly are. this is one that used to be reliably democrat. now things have changed. it's almost half and half. over the last several years democrats have lost about 12,000 registered voters, 14,000 gains of registered voters for republicans. this is also what they call one of those pivot counties. that's ones that voted for barack obama twice and then in 2016 voted for president trump and this is the only pivot county in pennsylvania that stuck with trump in 2020. a couple of the others boomerang ed back to democrats. you know, dr. oz and his race with john fetterman has been reaching out to try and get democrats to side with him. he's done that by saying hey, i'm not an extremist. i can bring people together. that's what the he told maria this morning here on "fox business." >> washington is getting it wrong. i think everyone appreciates that. part of the reason is they are taking extreme positions.

i bring balance to washington, i'll work past bipartisan bickering, find solutions accordingly but have you to have people to vote unorder for that to be accomplished. reporter: and neil, that seems to be a message resonating with some folks. i talked to a lady yet she and her twin sister run a place called dee's diner in wilkes bar re, and she says i'm an oz supporter but whoever wins better figure out a way to help people get along. >> if that's what our country is based on two different parties and that's what makes it run and i think america is a great place and i feel like we're losing that. we are two divided and it's not just one side. it's both sides. reporter: trying to bring america together here in pennsylvania, neil. i'll tell you, whoever gets elected i hope they do a better job than the guys that came before. neil: it didn't always be this

way. so, it's amazing. jeff, thank you for that. jeff flock following those developments in pennsylvania. georgia another one, where they have a couple of big battles the governor battle going on right now, that's one that's of great interest here, given the back and forth squabbles over whether the vote was reliable, that you've heard but the battle for the u.s. senate, that one is dead-even race. connell mcshane in marietta, georgia, with more. hey, connell. connell: the race raphael warnock and herschel walker, inflation is the top economic issue that's driving the vote. at the marriott a square market just down the street from here, we heard all about that when we were talking to some local restaurant owners. >> our fire oil is at 60%. our gloves we're paying three times as much for. our to go items are three times as much so the incremental costs are negatively impacting our bottom line. >> it's really insane particularly for our industry

because we're at record high lobster prices, it's very very difficult to make money, so we're just trying to hold on and breakeven and weather the storm. connell: so are the voters trying to weather the storm. one told us going for herschel walker because he thinks he will be better for his 401 (k) and raphael warnock supporters usually point to his experience already being in the senate. then, there are those who just aren't sure what to do. >> i do line with the republican values and because herschel walker, i don't think he's a strong political candidate for that and i do see that we have have a running who is democrat and because of our christian values it's hard to align with a democrat value when you know you're republican, but the values are stronger over there so it's very hard. >> what are you going to do? >> that's a hard question. i don't know and honestly, i have to say there's a lot of praying, a lot of resourcing to understand which way to lean, so

i wouldn't know which way to vote right now to tell you the truth. connell: not much time left to make that decision. warnock will be campaigning today in make on and columbus. walker has a rally this evening alongside senator lindsey graham and others and remember, at this point, over two and a half million people here in the state of georgia have already voted. neil? neil: that's incredible. just that alone, just blows me away. thank you very very much, connell mcshane. want to go to my friend jerry baker, wall street journal at- large very good at monitoring these developments friday at 7: 30 p.m. on this fine network. you know, the polls could be older than that but one consistent theme has it in almost all of them that the inflation, the economy of the biggest issue, that would on paper favor republicans but then it gets debated to the extent it can change a senate seat, or enough that republicans control that body. what's your latest intelligence

telling you? >> yeah, thanks, neil. yeah, you're right. it does look as though the house is pretty well clearly solidly gone republican. democrats seem to be acknowledging that that republicans should have a solid majority gaining between 15 and 25 maybe even 30 seats in the house. senators you say despite the fact that republicans have a lead on all these big issues is up for grabs but neil, i think things have moved quite significantly in the last few weeks just a month or two ago, we were talking about the competitive races being a kind of mix of republican held races and democrat held races we were talking about pennsylvania, which is republican held, we were talking about wisconsin and perhaps ohio, and north carolina if you look now and it's very interesting in your reports you've just seen there we are really heavily focused on democratic-held states, georgia, nevada, arizona, new hampshire now maybe even washington state, and pennsylvania as you had there, is the only state really

the republican-held state that looks now as though it is in any kind of a danger. that to me does tell you that there's been a big shift in the last month or so and instead of looking at a 50/50 senate the likelihood is those democrats are really fighting hard now to defend those seats, and it will be pretty surprising if they were able to defend all of them and fend off the republicans taking a majority of one, two, three seats in the senate i think. neil: you know, we've covered elections for , you know, a few times between us, young man, but i'm wondering let's say it goes the way a lot of those say, that at the very least to your earlier point, that the republicans take the house, have a good shot at the senate. are we going in that scenario to see a clinton-like pivot out of joe biden? is he capable of changing? >> what do you think? i mean, honestly, neil. let's be honest. first of all, he's going to be 80 later this month. how many -- neil: 80 is the new 79 i mean, come on. >> [laughter]

okay. well okay maybe he's going to be transformed into this listening moderate centrist guy who acknowledges all of his mistakes and things he's got wrong and willing to reach out to the other side. look he's just run a campaign which is closing by telling the voters if they vote the wrong-way they are going to destroy american democracy. the american democracy is going to end if they vote democratic. i don't know how he pivots from that, neil, in a week or two facing the majority of republicans who have just been elected by people who according to joe biden have voted to end democracy. how does he then turnaround. this is one of the problems, neil, with this crazy rhetoric we have at the moment. when you've built the stakes up so high in the way that joe biden has, when you said, you know, unless you vote for the democratic party on tuesday, american democracy will end. when the voters say well actually, sorry, joe, we don't believe you, we believe republicans will do a better job of handling issues we're concerned about what does the president then go? turnaround and say okay now i have to work with people who

want to end democracy? so i just find it pretty hard to believe he will be able to pivot in the way bill clinton did particularly after 1994 and instead i think by the way, we'll be automatically almost into the next presidential election with looks like donald trump announcing he's going to run. we'll be replaying i'm sorry to say replaying the old movie from three years ago, where there's biden vs. trump again and it's not really about the issues, it's not about inflation or crime or immigration. it's going to be about whether donald trump is a threat to democracy and whether joe biden is too old and too left wing to run the country. neil: and someone is going to say get off my lawn. i just don't know who. >> [laughter] neil: gerry, let me ask you, you mentioned donald trump and of course he ripped ron desantis at a rally over the weekend, saying he's governor ron de sanctimonious here and many in the party urging to dial that back again and if he didn't repeat it i don't know if he's responding to the fact he might have overstepped but there was and remaining concern it could be a scorched policy here.

you know, your newspaper has written extensively, you yourself have written about this could donald trump damage republicans with this type of talk? >> well, i mean, he's damaged republicans in the past. the reason almost certainly the republicans do not have a majority in the senate at the moment is because of his claim of course that the last election was stolen and the way in which he clearly depressed republican turnout in those georgia runoff elections in january, just ahead of the january 6 riot back in january 2021 so he has that in the past and he would argue remember the republicans when he was president lost a huge number of seats more than 40 seats in the mid-term elections in 2018, and then of course he lost the presidency in 2020 so though he does have a pretty consistent record of damaging republicans it doesn't seem to bother him as long as he doing okay. i'm skeptical about the idea that anybody will be able to challenge trump. trump is so dominant in the republican party and so far ahead in the polls when he made

that joke aunt ron de sanctimonious pointing to opinion polling that shows him 40 points ahead of everybody else. that can change, but i think trump's dominance of the party the identification of donald trump for so many republicans with a brand of republicanism that they like and it's so strong, i think it's really very very hard to see how even someone, you know, as political ly successful and skilled as ron desantis with really challenge him so i'll be surprised if trump does face a really really serious challenge but we'll see. neil: i just wonder, the goliat h nature of the reputation the former president has and it's justified given his influence over the party, to your point, but could he be challenged to the extent that lyndon johnson was in this country running in 1968 did poorly in the new hampshire primary enough to say all right that's it, you know, mccarthy did well enough to scare him out of a run, he didn't run, and then along came bobby kennedy which i don't have to repeat history to you of all people but could that be the

test of donald trump? >> well you're a great historian yourself and you follow these things very very closely and i'll throw the question back to you again, lbj, could you imagine donald trump ever articulating the words "i shall not seek nor will i accept the nomination of my party to be president of the united states"? pretty unlikely. again, this is a man, you know, who rightly or wrongly does feel he was cheated out of the election in 2020, thinks he should be the president of the united states, thinks he has the unique talents to be the president of the united states, remember back into his nomination acceptance speech back in 2016 where only i can save the country. i don't think that's the mark of a man who should he lose say as lyndon johnson did to mccarthy in the first primary back then, i don't think he's the kind of man who would take that as a, remember, he didn't do that well in the iowa caucus in 2016, and then exactly, came roaring back, so look, we could,

who knows. we pundits spend so much time prognosticating and i'm afraid too much of the time we're wrong but i don't see trump either has the personal all it nor does he have the political vulnerability within the republican party that would result in him saying, you know, i don't want to be the republican nominee next time because i think he has every probability of being the nominee , and every probability of going on and actually winning the general election. neil: yeah, it'll all get back to the economy how we're doing. gerry, you're never wrong. what gave you the notion you're wrong, wall street journal at large on this fine network, friday 7:30 p.m. stick around with us we're now down i think, we're what at session highs close to 300 points, anyway, we are on a romp here. what do the markets see maybe we're missing, after this.

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neil: all right you don't see this everyday, covid restrictions in china having an impact globally on iphone sales at least that's what apple seems to be indicating. the latest from lauren simonetti following all of this very closely. hey, lauren. lauren: neil, we've got a pretty big warning from apple that and i'm quoting here. "covid-19 restrictions have temporarily impacted the primary

iphone 14 pro and pro max assembly facility located in china." that facility currently operating at significantly reduced capacity. wedbush calls this a gut punch and it's most important quarter which is now, the holiday quarter. so that foxconn factory where we saw workers, remember that video they were fleeing to escape both covid and lockdown. it produces 85% of the high end pro model that according to counterpoint research. that's the model that starts at $1,000 and has been se really really well. here is the problem. there's no second source for these models. they are dependent on china, where the leadership says, and i'm quoting here "they have an unswerving commitment to covid-zero policies." what is the incentive for apple to stay in china right now if we know they are pursuing india and other locations. take a look now at carvana, the used car retailer. they are down 40% on friday. look at them now, down another 16% at one point, shares went

under $7. remember when the stock hit that all-time intraday high, $376 that was summer 2021. unbelievable that's an ugly chart. this freefall, because used vehicle sales are falling double-digits as the cost to finance rises dramatically. i'm going to quote carvana's own executives describing conditions as "the most unaffordable point ever for customers right now trying to finance a used car." of course, morgan stanley, adam jonas there, neil, says the stock could go to $1. 376 to $1 potentially this is ugly for carvana. neil: yikes. every darling has its day but man, this is -- lauren: that was fast. neil: a complete reversal thank you very much lauren. jonathan hoenig right now, capitalist pig hedge fund manager, jonathan what do you think of carvana, high fliers

not flying so high now. >> wow neil absolute wealth destruction you can't underestimate how much money has been lost not just in stocks but bonds as well. carvana is one, talking about a stock that's a high flier down about 95% just this year, facebook down 70% or even something like tesla, neil. elon is very much in the news but tesla is still the publicly- traded company down 50% this year and of course now you need 100% gain to get back to even. inflation is the number one issue, obviously so investors are keeping a real big eye on it and that's one of the reasons why i think ironically tomorrows elections matter so much. it's politicians that cause the inflation that are hindering the environment so those policies moving forward have a big impact on the market moving forward into 2023. neil: you know, jonathan, you mentioned elon musk and he's been urging voters i think via tweet, i could be wrong, vote republican, not because he flips over republicans i guess but because he likes divided government. it's a popular maximum among

market watchers, that divided government is best because nothing gets done but flip that around and say well actually there's a lot that should get done but your thoughts? >> the wonderful bite it beauty of this country and historically republicans are great adversity party, often great, you know, keeping spending under control. that's exactly what we need for this economy but i don't think it should hinder investors to put money to work here. elon is right if we can get government to get out of our lives, out of the market just a little bit here, i think you can make some money here, neil. even think back to the 1970s . there was a lot of political in the 1970s but there was still three individual big bull markets 50% or more, so i'm looking at areas like international, areas like value, small cap, these have been left over in recent years so that's where i'm putting money right now. not all-or-none but i think you could put money to work especially given the fantastic october we had in stocks. neil: you know, nasdaq had a good october as well, but it's also got the longest way to go to claw out of this bear market,

and some issues that you pointed out have been cut in half. is it overdone? in other words if someone were to come to you and say jonathan, i want to dive into the amazons, the apples, the teslas, because i think its been overdone, what would you tell them? >> i mean, neil, oftentimes a company is a great company. it doesn't essentially go out of business but the stock itself is dormant for months or even years at a time. xerox, ironically st. one that comes to mind. neil back in the 1970s, xerox was like the tesla of its age. neil: you're quite right. >> it still trades below where it did in 1970 so the fear of holding on for the long term and neil it's an old saying, sometimes you got to kind of go where the action is when it comes to stocks so when we talk about diversification, small cap , again, value value e emerging markets, we follow the markets for quite sometime, neil. they come in and out of cycles so if you want to be diversified now is the time to spread it into these some truly unloved areas of the market. neil: we'll watch closely jonathan always good catching up

with you jonathan hoenig. my next guest is pretty savvy at this financial stuff, in fact he's done quite well as a financial consultant but he has bigger fish to fry, and decided i don't like the way the state of connecticut is going, i want to run for governor so this financial consultant is doing just that. you heard from the governor last week on this show in connecticut , ned lemont, time to hear from his opponent, who is here, after this. ♪ ♪ (vo) while you may not be a pediatric surgeon volunteering your topiary talents at a children's hospital — your life is just as unique. your raymond james financial advisor gets to know you, your passions, and the way you give back.

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i promise to bring you advice that fits your values. i promise our relationship will be one of trust and transparency. as a fiduciary, i promise to put your interests first, always. charles schwab is proud to support the independent financial advisors who are passionately dedicated to helping people achieve their financial goals. visit findyourindependentadvisor.com neil: all right, always trying to fair and balanced here, yeah, we always talk to his or her opponents or we had the democratic incumbent dove nor ned lemont of connecticut with us reached out to his opponent and his opponent kind enough to respond and join us

right now, bob stefanowski is a financial consultant by training but decided to run for governor in the nutmeg state he is the republican candidate for governor, mr. stefanowski very good to have you, thank you >> neil, thanks for having me on. neil: what as a financial consultant, i guess by all indications a very successful one, a good one, you obviously know money, and you have been saying that the state is botch ing it when it comes to money. where do you draw a line with governor lamont? >> well governor lamont is a tax and spend democrat and its gotten us in a horrible position in connecticut. we have one of the highest under funded state pension plans in the entire country. we have over $100 billion of debt. we have the second-highest taxes in the nation, the highest utility costs in the continental u.s.. you can go on and on, neil, but we've had 12 years of democratic governors, 40 years of democratic legislature, a bloated budget.

i was the cfo of ubs. i know how to manage a budget and get money back to the taxpayers that's what the we need to do. neil: a lot of people have been looking at the race and maybe connecticut which sort of has this high income sort of impression here, the governor himself is worth close to $60 million. you're not shabby in your own right here, you know, worth maybe a third of that. that both of you are out of touch. what do you say to that? >> well, governor lant has run three times for office. my first time was the last time i lost to him by 40,000 votes on 1.3 million cast. i've run big organizations. the state of connecticut is a $24 billion organization with 50,000 employees. that's a different skillset. the governor has increased the budget by $4 billion. we've got little to show for it. we need some serious tax reform here. crime is out of control. governor lamont has been anti-

police, i've been endorsed by the police departments at the top five cities in connecticut and finally, governor lamont has gotten between a parent and their child. we've got a parental bill of rights we'll bet parents raise their kids as they see fit, and get the schools back to teaching reading, writing, science and math. neil: you know, it's too early to sort of trust polls. you're behind, you know, double-digits in a couple of them, not all of them and as any candidate can tell you don't trust those , i mean, a year ago at this time the republican candidate of new jersey was thought to be a long shot. he was 10-15 in some polls 20 points away from the incumbent governor ended up losing by just one or two, so the same could happen to you. of course you don't want to lose , you want to win, but that the polls might be understating republican support. do you think that extends to your state, where the governor remains very popular. >> absolutely. you know, we use john mcglochlin john was one of the few people that predicted trump would win. this is a statistical tie right

now. in fact with informed voters people that have an opinion of both the governor and me were up two points but i like it right where it is, neil. i want to be underestimated going into the polls. when we're out in the field i have democratic moms and dads coming up to me saying, our kids are important to us. we want to raise our kids. we want to talk to them about gender id at the kitchen table. not in kindergarten. we want our schools to get back to a normal curriculum. those issues, particularly in fairfield county, connecticut, are going to play very well for us and i'm going to be calling you on wednesday as the governor-elect for the state of connecticut. i am very very confident we're going to win this election. neil: you know you mentioned some of these other issues, sir, and that is education, certainly crime, which in areas like new haven and elsewhere, hartford, have gotten to be big issues but apparently not big enough. the rap against you is that you are looking at tax cuts for the well to do, that might

impress not the rest of the state crowd. what do you say? >> no, we've got a very broad plan called "connecticut first." we're going to reduce property taxes. that hits everybody. governor also lamont said he's going to reduce car taxes and they actually went up. we're actually going to regulate the utility companies, ever source gets a guaranteed 9.5 % rate of return regardless of their performance. we're going to lower the sales tax. governor lamont put a tax on food. we're going to eliminate that. december 1 governor lamont is going to raise the gas tax in connecticut. we're going to delay that. he paints himself as a moderate, neil, but he's as far left on taxes as anybody whose ever run the state of connecticut. i'm a fiscal conservative. i'm socially moderate. i'm the charlie baker of connecticut. we're going to get our fiscal house in order and protect people's social rights and really looking forward to doing it. neil: sir i don't mean to december disparage you personal ly, but some of the

tough ride you had in the polls actually has very little to do with you and the fact that donald trump supports you and has endorsed you and that in a state like connecticut, that's hurting you. do you agree with that? >> women, he endorsed me in 2018. he's not endorsed me. i've been very clear on this , neil. as far as i'm concerned president biden won the election if donald trump had anything to do with january 6 he should be held accountable, but i'll tell you, i do like some of his policies. i like lower taxes. i like supporting law enforcement. i like putting america first. people are not, in 2018, yes, neil, they were focused on donald trump. this time around they are focused on the state of connecticut and which person is best suited to be the ceo. governor lamont does not deserve every single statistic is worse than it was four years ago. if we're going to change connecticut we need to change governors. we're focused on here and that's what we'll do. neil: well, donald trump is not said he doesn't like you. i mean, unlike other republicans

who said, you know, you trust the january 6 issue, there was a fair election and joe biden won, he's not come after you. >> i'm not sure he would. we have chris cristi out this weekend, charlie baker out, glenn youngkin was out, i think connecticut is a perfect example of kind of a purple state like virginia, we're playing on the same issues that glenn did which is family, opportunity, kitchen table issues, lower taxes, individual liberty. this election is not about donald trump or joe biden. it's about people in connecticut who are right now filling their oil tanks half way, because they can't afford. people making decisions between prescription drugs and feeding their family. it is bad here, neil. we've got a $6 billion budget surplus because the federal government sent over 6 billion. we're going to give half of it back. governor lamont refuses to give taxpayers back their money. we're going to get it back and give them some short-term relief and grow the heck out of this

economy. neil: so you're going to give hall of that 6 billion back to connecticut residents? >> absolutely. in the form of tax cuts, in the form of lower utility costs. people are really struggling here, neil, particularly in the cities. we've got a plan to fix connecticut. governor lamont wants to pretend everything is fine. he's got no plans, our plan is on bobfor governor.com. we're going to deliver it, neil. neil: real quickly, as a financial guy. you know money quite well. where do you think our markets are going? >> i hate to say it, john, but i don't think we've seen the bottom yet. i mean, you look at the fundamental economic parameters they're not terrific. i don't trust the fed to do the right thing, and in my mind they certainly didn't do it over the last three years. i think there's more room to fall out of the market because i'll focus on running for office but i'd wait a while if it were me. neil: we'll watch very closely, bob stefanowski, the republican candidate for governor, in

connecticut. thank you very much, mr. stefanowski. very good seeing you. >> thank you, sir. neil: all right we have the dow up 268 points right now, a lot of the attention obviously on what happens tomorrow, but a good deal of it on maybe it sense that the federal reserve kind of slows the rate of increases down very little reason to believe that's an automatic but between that and the campaign, that's what they are seizing on, for now, for now. we'll have more, after this. good luck. td ameritrade, this is anna. hi anna, this position is all over the place, help! hey professor, subscriptions are down but that's only an estimated 15% of their valuation. do you think the market is overreacting? how'd you know that? the company profile tool, in thinkorswim®. yes, i love you!! please ignore that. td ameritrade. award-winning customer service that has your back.

>> no one is building new coal plants because they can't rely on it even if they have all of the coal guaranteed for the rest of the existence of the plan. we're going to be shutting these plants down all across america and having wind and solar. neil: um, don't quite understand what the president was saying there but those remarks that he's clearly not keen on coal, and the fact that over the weekend, he also just made it very very clear he isn't keen on drilling either, kind of laid out where he's coming from, despite some cleanup by the part

of the administration. madison alworth following all of this and reaction to all of this in east rutherford, new jersey, madison? reporter: hey, neil. in the final push before the mid-terms, the white house is trying to manage that message around energy, but we are seeing some shortcomings and people are pushing back so this weekend, the latest president biden tweet ing yesterday that the most common price of gas is $3.19. people took issue with that tweet, because usually, the average price of gas is what's looked at as the best indication of what the average american is paying. when you look at that number, you're closer to $3.80 compared to $3.42 a year ago. you know at a time when prices are high and access to diesel and oil is weakening, president biden is doubling down on his strategy. as you mentioned while campaign ing for new york governor kathy hochul this weekend, he said "no more drilling." this , after he promised to shutdown those coal plants in

the u.s. and replace them with wind and solar. senator joe manchin in arms following the statement responding in part by saying, " it seems his positions change depending on the audience and the politics of the day." politico lit siding our nations energy policies would only bring higher prices and more pain for the american people and the people that do have to pay these prices that we spoke to here at this gas station, they are frustrated that there is politics around their wallet with these already-high prices. take a listen. >> a sensible approach that can appease, you know, the population, i think they are putting fear into people. >> it's very hard to put food on the table and everything is expensive. everything is going up. it's too much. it's no good. reporter: you know, neil, it's a really warm day here. it's november and i'm wearing short sleeves in new jersey but the reality is winter is around the corner and this winter we're expecting exceptionally high home heating costs as well and

that's just another hit to the wallet when it comes to energy in america. neil? neil: all right, thank you for that, madison, i think. in the meantime, the migration on to lower-cost locations, let's just say california is just among some other big money big tax states that people are avoiding. we'll spell it out after this. at adp, we understand business today looks nothing like it did yesterday. while it's more unpredictable, its possibilities are endless.

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county represents over 60% of the electorate. over the past years we've seen it turn progressively purple. republican candidate won by 10.7 %, but its evolved to a narrowly blue county with 2020 seeing a democrat victory by 2.2% partially because of the blue influx we're seeing. california being where the biggest group is coming from , 2016-2020 an annual influx of 60,000 people. that's only increased during the pandemic and there's growing frustration amongst original arizonans that migrants are simply voting for those liberal policies they are fleeing. one mom tells me, it makes no sense. >> seeing people leave blue states that the then just want to turn this into a blue state makes no sense so it's super frustrating and we are hoping and praying that arizona is red. >> now on the ground we're talking to gop candidates and they actually see this as an economic opportunity to bring in businesses from blue states that

the gubernatorial candidate kerr ie lake how she plans to do that with inflation the highest in the nation here. >> we're going to immediately put a half a billion dollars in arizona pockets by getting rid of the grocery tax and rent tax. i believe we can capitalize on the horrible dead end policies of california and other blue states and get people to move here because they are so fed up. >> i can tell you though that the gop messaging has been bringing pocket books not your policies so neil we'll see if that is the case tomorrow at the polls. neil: thank you, kelly. the read on the significance of this , what's going on in arizona whether it's translating nationally, doug shoen democratic strategist extraordinaire is back with us, welcome to both of you. doug, your thought on these purple states that seem to be shifting red, some blue states that are having tough times staying blue, what are we to read into that? are we overreading this what do you think? >> i don't think we are over

reading. look we'll see tuesday night, neil, but with inflation high, with the stock market having gone down, with prices both at the pump and the grocery store, way up, and interest rates up, everything is moving against the democrats and particularly as we just heard, with the emphasis on pocketbook and democrats are talking things like abortion which frankly are just not as relevant to voters as their day-to-day economic circumstances. i think we're looking probably at a red wave. neil: what do you think, inez? >> i think doug is right that some of the fundamentals are obviously bad for democrats. there's also as the reporter pointed to there's a whole bunch of kind of question marks in this. the migration that has gone on within the united states for the last two years. neil: in arizona particularly knows that well. >> yeah, right so arizonans know that and it's a long term complaint, i know that

every other state wants to complain about us moving in because oftentimes california does come in and vote for the same policies that push them out. neil: you should hear what floridians say about new yorkers >> same dynamic, no, but there are some really big swings that are really worrying for democrat s some shorter term some longer term. the shorter term one is the huge swing among suburban women. a demographic that is gettable for democrats but they are concerned about education issues , what their kids are being taught in school on top of the pocketbook issues. that is a democrat o graphic they hope to bring up for their side by focusing on that abortion issue. it's not really working the latest polls are showing that demographic is going red and the third sort of underlying factor is the continual switch of hispanic voters more and more to a 50/50 demographic. that might be longer term so all things i think they add up for a good republican night but also add up for a different sort of politics then perhaps where we were used to calling races four

or five years ago. neil: i wonder whether we treat voting groups too monolithically. what you're very good at and i'm not blowing you smoke is this idea that women are a single-issue voting block so if they aren't happy with the roe v. wade decision, they also shop at the grocery store and they have other concerns. i'm looking at that in the context of this shift with latino voters increasingly going republican as well. what do you make of it all? >> look i think inez is right and she puts her finger on particularly her third point where she speaks of hispanics going 50/50. we democrats have been of the view that hispanics are people of color who vote in some ideological way where they're pro-open borders and that's going to drive them with re distribution of wealth and power, as part of it. completely wrong. neil: yeah. >> many hispanics are catholic,

conservative, pro-traditional values and pro-closed borders, legal immigration, so i think we as a party and many analysts are slipshot in how we analyze things and don't look at the underlying dynamics that inez was focusing on. neil: 30 quick seconds to respond. >> obviously, we agree more than i guess many of these kinds of panels. yeah, i think that there are big larger underlying realignment happening like for example, we're not even talking about for example, working class vote going towards democrat anymore. we already have kind of accepted that 2016 alignment as a baseline in our politics and we're talking about democrats as being college educated voters who have upper income. these fundamentals are changing and it makes calling all of this simple. neil: shattering the impressions , guys thank you very very much. we'll have more, right after this. >> thank you.

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for the gifts that keep on giving. because while they have no idea what's going on here... -hi. -...a little something of their own will get them in the spirit. great prices. happy pets. chewy. if you wake up thinking about the market and want to make the right moves fast... get decision tech. for insights on when to buy and sell. and proactive alerts on market events. that's decision tech. only from fidelity. neil: all right, to the hardest working man in all of cable news, charles payne, right now. hey, charles. charles: neil, great to sue, my friend and good afternoon, my friend, i'm charles payne and this is "making money." markets on edge. ahead of the midterms historically send stocks into overdrive but trepidation about the fed, going from inflation to recession keeping a whole lot of investors on the sidelines. what if the market already