>> very briefly quite striking and encouraging to see so many candidates on both sides particularly republicans have been supporting donald trump's plans of the 2020 election conceding their own defeat does suggest election denial is not the virus that we fear. >> right it also probably helped a little bit the somebody's races were a big blowout so there is less to argue about the particular of five votes in some county in a foreign place. gerry: think about laura karen and charles hurt, will be back next week more, tree interviews on the "wall street journal at large" in the meantime have a great week, >> "barron's roundtable" sponsored by global x etfs.

>> welcome to "barron's roundtable" where we get behind the headlines and prepare you for the week ahead. coming up don't call it a pivot but the fed may slow rate hikes after inflation numbers got low. alan blinder on what could happen next. the stocks warren buffett is doing now and what is berkshire hathaway portfolio tells us about the health of the economy. we begin with 3 things investors should be thinking about, stocks surged and bond yields fell as inflation numbers came in lower than expected but is the market getting ahead of itself. crypto exchange ran into big trouble this week and rival bynance fell out of it. ftx is in a one hundred 35 million deal to name the miami heat basketball arena. why you should never invest in a company that's buying stadium rights. ben levisohn, carleton english

and andrew bary. good week to have a 401(k). investors want to believe that elusive pivot is on the way. are they right? ben: no. this market really wants it's pivot. whenever we get a data point like this it overreacts and extrapolates too much from one data point to what the fed may not do. i don't want to downplay this number. this is what the market needs to see, inflation start to slow and that is what is happening but the nasdaq had 8% gain this week, we saw stocks like home depot jump 10%, moves are massive. jack: what is the path of inflation. what the data point? has inflation gone back down? ben: it is likely going down but how fast is it going down?

will go fast enough that the fed will find a lower level and pause? that is where investors need to be careful. jack: what signal are you looking for? ben: the other inflation readings and the job market. the fed will be worried about inflation as long as the job market remains as hot as it is. jack: we had an election last week. how important was that for the market? ben: not at all. jack: earnings that give us a peek at the economic future? ben: watching retailers. some small guys like ralph lauren am i getting a target when you get walmart and home depot and that tells us how the consumer is doing, how inflation is coming through, things like food and whatnot and where the economy is coming.

jack: sam bankman freed, he managed to take his network from 16 billion down to below one billion. what happened? carleton: what is interesting about this story is ftx was considered one of the grown-ups in the crypto space, they have trouble filing for bankruptcy earlier this year, they had been the lender of last resort to many companies but it emerged through a point last week that an unaffiliated company, much left balance sheet composed of tokens ftx created, not a good idea. other reporting showed ftx was coming going client accounts to do trading through this other business as well. last week it culminated with chapter 11 on credit. jack: what does it mean for investors with exposure to

crypto? carleton: we saw the price of crypto plunge below 16,000, could go further. grip so exposed companies like nvidia, micro strategies, facing a tough time too. you want to look at vc players who funded ftx. for the crypto space, we are starting to hear something from regulators. this is an area that has been ignored too long. andrew: where were the regulators? you had ftx lending from trading operations and if you have an account at merrill lynch or morgan stanley they can't do this, don't know where the regulators were? we are getting investigators down before this happened? jack: carleton: we don't know how to regulate it but seems they were behind the ball and need to

catch up fast. jack: we will see if it moves anywhere in the next congress. this was no surprise to anybody who follows naming rights of stadiums. explained that. andrew: if you see a comedy by naming rights, sell the stock. ftx did that with the miami arena. it is basically a sign companies are riding high, have money to burn, dubious imaging, enhancing activities so ftx did it when they were triple the current price. there's great history of disasters involving this. and ron --enron went bankrupt. if you have a portfolio you get companies like citigroup, fedex, citi field, which is in washington. at&t put its name on a number of things, united airlines in chicago. even amazon stock down 25%

since bezos decided to put -- bought the rights to the seattle arena. bezos being baise oce it was called climate pledge arena. it is sustainable using rainwater from the roof of the ice. it didn't save the stock. there's hypocrisy because his personal climate footprint is enormous. he has a $500 million megayacht. jack: another example is crypto.com stadium. within days of the peak, $70,000. markets soared after the release of better-than-expected inflation data point, our investors optimistic about the next move? former federal reserve

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i'm so glad we did this. edward jones jack: jerome powell signaled more rate hikes to command following inflation sparked a rally and the author of a monetary and fiscal history of the united states 1961-2021 princeton university professor alan blinder. thanks for being on the show. appreciate it. chairman powell made clear the fed will keep raising rates until he's confident inflation will be squashed. the recent inflation print said they are making progress. that's a single day appointment but what is your read? how high will the fed raise rates and you agree with their approach? >> it is in single data point but a good data point.

we are watching bad data points. if you got into the details it looks pretty good but one data point. the fed will go higher than it is now. it is time they slow the blistering pace they utilize as they try to catch up, they are slow off the market is everyone including chair powell has said. they are moving up 75 basis point increments which is unusual. jack: as you expect them to slowest slow enough to allow the soft landing or are we destined for recession? >> it is tough. a minority probability, don't know what it is, 30%, 40%,

majority probability, soft and hard should be continual. don't think we are headed for a crash landing. the fed does not want to do that and will not do that. if you are not too fuzzy on definitions and take a mild, modest recession as a soft landing that is possible. jack: you were in the room, 94-96 under greenspan, what was it like when you were debating policy? is it formal with power points? do people yell about the phillips curve and aggregate demand, how does that work? >> they never yell, yelling is just in the federal reserve board room, it is extremely

polite. under greenspan, more than today it was very stilted which we would go around the table, each person spoke and you were not supposed to interrupt the other guy or gal as they were speaking, it was more freewheeling than that. it is not raucous by any definition, extremely polite. jack: we leave the heavy lifting to the federal reserve to tackling inflation, that's because politicians don't make tough choices, raising taxes, cutting spending. in a perfect world would those be better tools to help tackle inflation? >> i don't know if they would be better but there are two tools to use and interest rates could be less volatile, using

something other than the interest rates. i point out in my book that the first time fiscal policy was used to fight inflation was under lyndon johnson. it was also the last time. took a long time to convince johnson, took a long time for johnson to convince congress, they raised taxes in 1968 to fight the vietnam inflation it is not -- jack: i will get a little esoteric. he wrote a research paper and asked an interesting question. what do people care as much or more about their roles as producers, their jobs, as they do about goods and services, economist are barking up the wrong tree for centuries. explained that. >> i said that in the context

of trade, almost every economist favors free-trade that has gone completely free trade and politicians, the suggestion was politicians have their ear to the ground better than economies and to ordinary people the idea you could get things cheaper from foreign countries through free-trade may be less appealing than keeping jobs in america. jack: thank you for being on the show was warren buffett's investment handle the broader market this year can he stand on his own... once he's all on his own? this is financial security. and lincoln financial solutions will help you get there.

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jack: warren buffett's portfolio, the pics attributed to his successors are hurting. you are our resident buffett expert, a windmill on the health of the economy, what do you see through that? >> berkshire is a conglomerate with a lot of businesses including burlington northern, housing related businesses and what it is showing is the economy is slowing but inflation, volumes were down but prices were up. an interesting microcosm of the economy. jack: buffett brought on two younger investors, the buffett armor game is trying to figure out what did he buy, you have some good senses of that, what are they buying?

andrew: they won 10% of the $350 billion portfolio, buffett never said what they own or what their permit formance is. a smaller position inside the equity portfolio are theirs, some are not doing that, amazon.com, snowflake and general communications, i think todd and ted are having a tougher year this year. jack: when we think what happens after buffett that is worrisome. the stock gets hurt because the brilliant greatest investor in the world is no longer there, some of the parts might be greater then the whole that berkshire gets set up. what do you think? andrew: the stock would rise the day after his debt, and some of the parts worth more than that.

i think he is stacked aboard with people including his daughter's -- they try to fulfill his vision of keeping berkshire together in an indefinite period. carleton: tell me your thoughts on the geico insurance business. andrew: geico is the number 2 auto insurance in the company and it is hurting like other auto insurance because of higher claims costs and higher used car prices and labor and parts. what it has been doing is raising prices. if you look at the cpi report, one of the highest increases month over month have been auto insurance, up 1% plus every month as insurers try to recoup the profits they lost. jack: i loved railroads as a kid but couldn't afford to buy one. warren buffett could. how was it doing?

andrew: its volumes are down for coal and other commodities it carries and automobiles but it's pricing is up, passing on higher costs for diesel fuel, labor costs are going up. its profitability is down at revenue was up so it is squeezed like many other companies in the country by higher costs. carleton: berkshire is heavily invested in energy. what about occidental and jenner on? andrew: his biggest investment in the energy sector, he about $20 billion of chevron, $15 billion of occidental petroleum, people ask do you think it is wrong to invest in the energy sector because of its drawing climate change, he says no, chevron is not an evil company. he is comfortable, the energy sector has been the best in the market this year. jack: one of the worst sectors in the market, but one of the

better stocks, apple is in a big position for berkshire. what do you make of that? andrew: buffett has big game and apple, a $30 billion position, 40% of the investment portfolio. in a couple years, triple his money and he doesn't view it as a tech company, not a big tech name. he uses it as a consumer company with sticky customer base. he's a big fan of apple. he owns 900 million shares. jack: and earning 4% which is kind of nice. you will tell us why you are betting against a big sector ♪ kevin! kevin! kevin? oh nice. kevin, where are you... kevin?!?!?.... hey, what's going on? i'm right here! i was busy cashbacking for the holidays with chase freedom unlimited. i'm gonna cashback on a gingerbread house! oooh, it's got little people inside! and a snowglobe.

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jack: the stock of bumble this week, there's a seasonality argument to be made here. carleton: we are in cuffing season. it is in late fall where couples for the cold winter months, go apple picking, tons of holiday parties. people are matched up, and companies like bumble looking good. bumble standout for other dating apps, one of the more female friendly ones. any woman who has done a dating apps knows that you are often inundated with requests from not the most gentlemanly characters, this allows a woman to decide if you wants to pursue a conversation with someone. jacob sunshine.out this is an area that is growing. they been able to double their

users over the last two years. there's room for margin improvement and sales growth of 20% through 2028. look like when you might want to latch up with, i don't know. jack: a spac is involved. carleton: grinder is looking to go public that way by the end of the year. jack: i want an idea from you and andrew. do you think the energy ship may have sailed? andrew: sale exxon has been on a tear this year, there stock nearly doubled, pushing $500 billion and hit a record high today despite the fact that oil is down $20 a barrel from its peak, natural gas prices are down 50% from the high and earnings are down for exxon. i would say be careful about

exxon. energy is a difficult business. whatever wasting access, climate activists breathing down your neck, i would say take profits in exxon now. jack: you will take that money and put it in a speculative name. ben: theinterest has been beaten down but hit it slow earlier this year and hasn't gone down much. it is above the 50 day moving average, there's activists involved and this might be the time to go after it. jack: a lot of contrarian pics from barron. check out this week's addition ... ♪