those are objective and, therefore, they belong in the workplace, this is a standard play from the leftist playbook. but it's insid use, and it's why i think democrats are starting to lose the culture wars, because they're not allowing for any discussion on things that are controversial and do invite a lot of diverse opinions from people. if. gerry: well, we'll be celebrating christmas and hanukkah and anything else you want to celebrate. i certainly don't think we're offending anyone. thank you very much to my guests this week. i'll be back next ebb week with more commentary and and interviews here on the "wall street journal at large." have a wonderful and very happy thanksgiving. >> "barron's roundtable" sponsored by global x etfs.

jack: welcome to "barron's roundtable" where we get behind the headlines and prepare for the week ahead. what beaten-down tech stocks look like bargains. portfolio manager bill niegren has picks. what about black friday? 3 things investors will be thinking about, stocks sank after hawkish comments from fed president james bullard, interest rates could reach 7%. warren buffett's berkshire hathaway takes a stake in taiwan semi conductor. what is next for the crypto market and could the crisis lead to regulation? on "barron's roundtable," ben levisohn, carleton english and jack hough. that president bullard used the number 7 is in 7%. i expected stocks to plummet but not so much. >> the dow finished down 3

points. the kind of statement we've seen a huge reaction from the market on but not this time. that assign the stock market is starting to tune out the fed. it knows that rates are going up. there are signs the market shifted away from rate hikes as the driving force of the market to looking at credit spreads, the difference between treasuries and junk bonds or other corporate bonds, a sign the market is working out the recession. as long as those spreads rain narrow the markets will do okay because recession is not coming. we could have a problem. jack: is there a data point that could refocus the markets attention? ben: we have to look at the cpi in november and after that the december fed meeting. those will be the big events that will determine where the market will finish the year and how it starts the new year.

if we get a weaker cpi will be one data point rather than two and that could be a sign that inflation is tame and if the fed takes its foot off the pedal it reduces the odds of recession. those are things to watch. jack: a rough year for chip stocks but we have a turnaround, warren buffett help light a fire. jack: still disgusting for chips. a little bit of light, berkshire disclosed a stake in taiwan's for billion dollars this past week. it is unclear if this is buffett or one of his lieutenants doing the buying, stock jumped 10% on that news. semi conductors have been hit by this concern that the shortages have turned into a glut at the market when demand is cooling but buffett is not shy of buying out-of-favor things. taiwan semi's 13 times earnings. it's an agreeable evaluation

but also likes strong competitives and this has a lot for high end chip manufacturing. two things stand out that are weird or noteworthy. berkshire has a big stake in apple. apple is a key taiwan semi customer. this is doubling down. the other thing is the us and china are locked in a chip war with taiwan at the center. taiwan semi is building a chip plant in arizona. china can't be happy about that. taiwan has part of china. berkshire would have to be betting that not only will not be any hong kong style power grab on the part of china in taiwan but this chip war is going to have a favorable conclusion for the us which would hurt investors. jack: the collapse of ftx epic, $32 billion has gone away that

quickly but what is interesting is the rest of wall street doesn't care. carleton: you saw where the dow ended this week, this is largely contained in the crypto community. me, you and everyone we know where you had the collapse of etfs and blocked buy which was opposed to ftx so it may be considering chapter 11. from their you have a crypto lander that had to pause and make loans. that led to the winklevoss trust, who is exposed to this blow up and how much. the broader market doesn't seem to mind much. jack: i see two questions, is a good investment? we know what jack thinks. that you want to take a stake in crypto. forget about whether crypto gets 0, can you be assured that

your investment will be safe? the brokerage won't run away with it? carleton: there are ways to mitigate the risk. one thing, you want to look at companies based in the us, you know us rule of law applies, that was a question in the early days of the ftx collapse. looking at publicly traded exchange, not to say they are good, we have a ton of coverage on that but what are they subject to? audited financials, timely financial reporting, disclosure. those are ways when investing in a volatile asset, a greater level of comfort with an ftx or one of these other players. jack: is facebook a bargainer value trap? what's the best way to invest in energy? i am asking bill nygren about his topics next black.

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♪ jack: tech stocks have taken a beating but some are an opportunity for investors. joining these chief investment officer for us equities and portfolio manager bill nygren. great to have you in the studio again. your approach to investing is to look for businesses you think will outperform over the long-term and try to tune out market conditions but i will ask about market conditions. rising rates, stubbornly high performance in the job market despite the fed's attempt to cool down the job market. how should investors be thinking about that dichotomy? >> we are a 5 to 7 year timeframe investor for 30

years. over that time there is always something in the macro environment that will encourage an investor to give up on stocks and think they should not only them for a while. the s&p is up something like 15fold. the odds are against someone who's trying to market time when they are trying to do that. jack: there is a famous prophet quote about price is what you pay, value is what you get. looking at the chart of your fund in the past two years seems like an example of that, dramatically outperform your peers in 2,020 one, 96% of them. this year you are beating 10% of them. the companies haven't changed that much. the market is putting a different price on those stocks. how should investors think about that? >> in both years we owned a lot of companies that had low key

ratios and one of the surprises was when interest rates went up we expected it to be good for bank stock prices or business fundamentals, but the recession concerns caused the bank stocks to perform worse than the s&p 500 and that is a big drag on our performance. we think businesses are more valuable than they were last year and we expect them to be additive to our performance going forward. jack: alphabet and a credit will company, with alligators and crocodiles thrown in but the market is not small enough. >> a lot of people think of alphabet as a technology company largely because of what they do in the other bit segments with more autonomous driving and that type of thing but that's not the core business, the core business is more like a typical media business that sells advertising. this year hasn't been as good year because it is a cyclical

business but we believe alphabet is cheap when you adjust for the assets that aren't earning money today like venture-capital portfolio, cash on the balance sheet, it gets down to barely double digit in the search business. jack: and there's room to trim on the employee side. >> possibly. a lot of technology companies that have been investing for supernormal growth have pulled back on the employee count. jack: facebook, corporate governments not very pretty and mark zuckerberg betting the farm on the meta verse. are you in on that? >> we own stock but unlike some value investors, when a company has disappointing news that we think affects the fundamentals long-term our knee-jerk reaction is not to add to the position.

we meet with management and represent the stock. we are concerned about the magnitude of the spending, artificial intelligence and the meta verse and it is to be determined what happens to our position from here. jack: the transition is a different sector, energy, the only really good sector this year. you own a company that barron's has written favorably about. the former apache stock. >> large domestic oil and gas producer. we think the industry has been under invested in the past decade. supply and demand has turned favorable for oil prices and it will take years for oil companies to respond to that and meet increased supply. despite the increases here, epa has a cash flow yield that is double digit. relative to 4% or 5%, the

number is attractive for investors and that's coming back to investors as dividends and share repurchase which is a change for this industry. jack: i've got to let you go but we spoke about netflix, the advertising experiment started, so bad, so far so good. >> one thing netflix has going for it is people watch so many hours of netflix it gives a lot of advertising opportunity. they can make the price attractive to consumers who don't want to pay a full monthly fee and are not annoyed by interruptions and adds. it will increase their market. jack: bill nygren, thank you for being here. the holiday shopping season kicks off next week. will black friday be a boom or bust for retailers? it's nice to unwind after a long

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jack: holiday shopping kicks off next week and retailers are planning big black friday sales. will the american consumer, through? what is the cover story in this week's barron. here is managing editor kristin bellstrum. analyst of never seen these contradict and, consumer saving strong, but consumer can sentiment we, inflation is up more. where does that leave retailers? >> it's confusing for everyone. the one who wrote the story talk to forecasters who said we've never had a more difficult time figuring out what is going to happen. where they landed is probably retail sales will grow by 6% to 8% compared to last year which

sounds good until you think about inflation. it means they will be flat. if you are retailer will be a tough competitive year but if you are shopper there will be the deals and discounts we haven't seen in a couple years. jack: good news for shoppers and inflation. the dynamic, this inventory question, a year ago because of supply-chain scenarios, suddenly there is too much inventory. >> a combination of supply-chain getting resolved, and consumers pulling back a little bit. we are seeing particularly in athletic gear, apparel, home goods, places where inventory is overstocked and retailers are saying we want to clear this out and get right sized by next year and do that with discounts. if you want to buy sneakers and a couch.

jack: i'm not afraid to her deeply discounted clothing. what is the outlook for the off-price retailers, better or worse than it is for the rest of retail. >> looking good for operate retailers, part of that is inventory issue, tjx and raw stores gather inventory from other stores when they order so they have their pick right now. we are seeing shoppers trading down. walmart reported guard earnings, surprised a lot of people and taking market share from high end competitors. shoppers looking for value from companies that provided. carleton: i will take the flip side talking about the luxury market. when you look at wall street cutting bonuses of layoffs, a lot of layoffs, how are luxury retailers going to fair?

>> the top 20% of households, 40% of consumer spending, we saw macy's earnings, they were strong and particularly bloomingdale's, high end brands, they performed well, seeing sales growth. investors look for luxury brands to maintain pricing avoiding discounting i have been talking about. we will see if they are able to pull that off. jack: holiday shopping is supposed to give us a read on the economy. will that be the case this year? >> it is supposed to but analysts we spoke to said this year could be different. there are many factors influx right now. of retailers performed to meet the forecast everyone will shrug and say we will wait and see but if things go badly,

that will send red flags, people will be downgrading their outlook for next year. jack: what is the must have gift this holiday season that has got to be under the tree? >> i was wondering this myself. i talked to one of our tech reporter gurus who said gaming systems are extremely hot like the x box series x, playstation 5, hard to get a hold of. if someone in your list wants one of those you should start yesterday. jack: we will hear from jack about hasbro and the billion-dollar game i never heard of so stay right there. ce a family tradition? this is financial security. and lincoln financial solutions will help you get there. as you plan, protect and retire. ♪ ♪3, 4♪

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jack: there's a brouhaha and donnybrook going on in your land. jack: i employed dungeons and dragons in high school, i was doing macho things like putting on short and bouncing orange ball around the floor with 9 other guys but role-playing games have this huge renaissance during the pandemic. as popular as dungeons and dragons is it is not as profitable as magic the gathering, the first billion-dollar brand for hasbro. if you're playing dungeons & dragons you need one player with a rulebook and everyone else is telling stories. with magic all the players have to endlessly buy cards to fill their debts with characters and spells so the rarest cards, the prices went full crypto during the pandemic and hasbro leaned into that, a ton of them, and

there has been a magic crash. the black lotus card down 42% this year to $26,000. time twister, good value, 26%, some players are furious, bfa securities double downgraded hasbro stock over this issue and shares lost 10%. hasbro says everything is fine with the brand. i'm thinking about the 60-40 portfolio of necromancers. i have to talk to my account about whether to pay taxes on it. jack: past performance is no guarantee of future results. if you have extra money left over, what's your idea? carleton: we have a story looking at india's third story, china no longer the focus, india's growth outpacing it. they have this new national

identity program that will bring millions into the economy and the financial services. you might look at and etf like high shares. jack: never lived up to investors, for those who don't want to go the index route some would rather have a stock picker at the helm. what do you recommend? carleton: look at the matthew india fund, the tons of stories for the more adventurous people who want to do their own stockpicking. jack: for those who want to go closer to us shores what do you recommend? >> november is a decent month for stocks and for stocks that, companies that have gotten knocked down nicely in the month of november. it is down. it tested $4,500, held it and moving up and could get to 16.

if it breaks that level there is a lot of room to go. jpmorgan had a note on it, they occupy a unique position in healthcare delivery system referring to the different businesses along with health insurance but also has pharmacy benefits and that kind of thing and this is a decent time to look at unh and fix them up. jack: healthcare is out of favor recently but a lot of arguments for that. great ideas. thanks very much, to read more check out this week's addition of barron.com and visit us on twitter, barron online. the you next week on "barron's roundtable". >> from the fox studios in new york city, this is maria bartiromo's "wall street." maria: and happy weekend to all. welcome to the program that analyzes the week that was and helps position you for the week ahead. i'm maria bartiromo. gop flip