david: that does it forrousen "cavuto coast-to-coast". have a wonderful holiday weekend, everybody. see you next time. maria: happy thanksgiving weekend to all. welcome to the program that leeanne lysing the week that wat was and posit positions you fore

week ahead. joe bedouin border crisis and 5 -- joe biden's border crisis and nearly 7,000 people crossed into the country illegally every single day. house gop leader kevin mccarthy is threatening to impeach homeland security secretary alejandro mayorkas if tech ahe doesn'tresign. the senator is here. reading the tea leaves and release of latest fomc minutes and fueling speculation over how much the federal reserve hikes interest rates in december. asking economist and through the cycle founder john lonski about rates, the economy, and the markets. and it is the biggest shopping day of the year. is sky high inflation putting a damper on holiday spending? we're looking at how this black friday compares to last year. all coming up right here. but first, this weekend customs and border protection reporting

an unprecedented number of got aways at our southern border. almost a million migrants illegally crossing into the u.s. in the last two years. that's an average of 6 to 7,000 people a day. house minority leader kevin mccarthy calling on homeland secretary alejandro mayorkas. >> if sec stair mayorkas doesn't resign, house republicans will investigate every recorder, every action, and every failure and determine whether we can begin impeachment inquiry. maria: joining me is bill hagerty and senator, it's great to see you. thanks very much for being here. >> like wise, maria. maria: you've been to the border several times and what can you tell us about what you've seen firsthand and should alejandro mayorkas resign since he keeps telling us the border is secure?

>> it's an unprecedented crisis and we've been uncovering the border and snagsal security cry is -- national security crisis we face in the year and over 107,000 people died last year due to drug overdose and most coming across the poor southern boarder and secretary mayorkas doesn't know who's coming across the border and people on the terrorist watch list on the boarder and national security crisis and a humanitarian crisis and they were undocumented and 230,000 people and make it the third largest city in my home state after nashville and memphis. bigger than knoxville, tennessee, in one month's time and mayorkas is ignoring this and the biden administration needs to be held for account and i'm all for what leader mccarthy is saying and we have to have accountability and glad he's

getting to this right now. maria: yeah, what's the point of this, senator? why do we have this open border? we all should agree on this and 100 people apprehended on the terrorist watch list and you mentioned the fentanyl from china killing american citizens and poisoning the young people and then there's all these people like five million and they're trying to get illegals to vote in elections. >> it's a very cynical rational and i'm afraid, maria, there's a lot of truth to it. if you look at way congressional seats are portioned. they're portioned based on population. not based on citizenship or noncitizenship, it's all people residing in a given state. look at sanctuary cities. loclocated in blue states where democrats control the legislatures and they'll control the congressional seats if they can get numbers higher and very cynical and i hate to say it, there's a great deal of truth to

it. maria: we're putting a spotlight on it and we understand the bad behavior of the fentanyl limit and the white house claims president biden pressed ccp leader xi jinping on fentanyl and on the origins of covid-19 when they met last week in bali. senator, you proposed legislation that could keep fentanyl from china from coming across our border but the democrats blocked it. why would they block that? >> they blocked it yet again. i brought it up in april and this enhanced title 42 so we can use to stop illegal drug smuggling coming across the southern border, particularly aimed at fentanyl that's poisoning our kids. again, patty murrey from the democrat side stood up and blocked any legislation that i put forward recently after the federal judge decided that he's going to set aside title 42 under the current structure.

we need a strengthening of title 42. if you take title 42 away, the border has no tools left. after the federal judge's action, i thought this is the perfect time to bring legislation back that will add trafficking in drugs as another reason to turn the illegal immigrants away. those involved in truck trafficking should be turned away immediately but the democrats won't even do that. they'll stop at nothing to collapse the southern border and we'll have more and more deaths and poisoning of fentanyl as a result of the crisis that will cascade after title 42 is removed. maria: this is disturbing since china mocks any rapport with joe biden and joe biden walks the whole stage to meet xi jinping. xi jinping takes one step. he doesn't even meet joe biden in the middle. he basically allows joe biden to come to him and then while they were meeting, literally while they were meeting, you actually had more bullying from chinese

aircraft, which flew the air perimeter arnold the u.s. air force and marine base in okinawa, japan, it's part of the island chain linking the four mine main islands with taiwan. after the meeting they had army planes and three ships enter the taiwan air defense administration center. >> it's a complete lack of respect. i served as united states ambassador to japan before coming to the united states senate. i was extraordinarily alarmed and amazed the unit has not done something about this and we is more u.s. mill stationed in japan than anywhere in the world outside of the u.s. boarder and it's a major encroachment and threat and the fact that this white house would stand by and say nothing as this happened is shocking to me as it is to all listeners and viewers today. maria: what can you do about it? >> we have to call it out and stand up again. but we have a white house

willing to capitulate to china at every turn and willing to structure a climate deal with china and we've all heard about the great compromise of the biden family when it has to do with china and hunter biden has to have a lot more press here very soon and we know who the big guy is and china is deeply involved as well and deeply concerning and we need to address and stand up to china again. china only respects one thing and that is strength and american championship has strength but we're not doing it right now. maria: real take on your economic and we're right now facing a potential of a railroad strike. the president tried to act as if he had some kind of tentative deal before the midterm elections but we now know that four of the unions have rejected a deal which gave them by the way 24% raise but only one paid

sick day. senator, what's the likelihood we have a rail strike right in the middle of the holidays? >> i think highly likely, maria. you hit the union boss in the head and forced their members to buck up and force the deals to get through the elections and midterm elections and only seeing reality and only allow for one additional sick day and unions asking for 15 and that's a big, big gap. joe biden declared victory before the midterm elections and this was all part of the plan. what we're seeing now is the whole thing is coming unraveled and it's going to be a real crisis of $2 billion a day economic impact and believing the economist estimates can be much greater and look at knock on effects in supply ch chains d it'll be significant and wreaking havoc on the administration and biden did everything by holding off on the strike to get through the midterm elections and fingers

are coming out of the dike and see a massive kansas city chieff something not done very soon. maria: senator, very good to talk with you this weekend. we so appreciate it and thank you very much. >> like wise, maria. maria: senator big hagerty in tennessee this weekend. federal reserve set so raise interest rates in december. how high will they go and when is enough enough? i'm asking economists and cycle founder john lonski next. >> based on amount of inflation and lags in monetary policy we understand how high do i think the rate will need to go to get this job done? right now my own outlook is around 5%.

ther signs of infecti. verzenio may cause low white blood cell counts, which may cause serious infection that can lead to death. life-threatening lung inflammation can occur. tell your doctor about any new or worsening trouble breathing, cough, or chest pain. serious liver problems can happen. symptoms include fatigue, appetite loss, stomach pain, and bleeding or bruising. blood clots that can lead to death have occurred. tell your doctor if you have pain or swelling in your arms or legs, shortness of breath, chest pain, and rapid breathing or heart rate, or if you are nursing, pregnant, or plan to be. i'm making my own way forward. ask your doctor about everyday verzenio.

maria: welcome back and take a

look at where markets ended and early close on black friday. fomc meeting minutes released this week how much will the federal reserve continue to raise interest rates and how high will they go? when will the hiking stop through the cycle president john lonski with me now and talk about economy and your money. john, great to see you and what are you expecting from the fed meeting december 13 and 14th? >> i think the fed will make it clear its fight against inflation is far from over. i see the federal funds rate being hiked up to 4.38%, which is 2.8% higher than the cycle that ended in 2018. this rate, this is very important. at 4.38%, the federal funds rate would be well above what is now a 3.75% ten year treasury yield. in the past when we many fed

funds so high relative to the 10 year treasury yield, economic slowdowns, if not recessions eventually followed. this is a very important warning signal of trouble ahead in 2023. maria: we've soon some misses in the past week and serious demand in destruction of housing and 7.25% mortgage rates and this week they came well off the highs, john, but the retail story was mixed. there's a lot of inventory reported and didn't get grate great guidance and a handful of them outperformed and how would you assess the week all about retail? >> i look at retail reports and i'm struck by the fact that in some cases, the stock prices of retailers manage to rise significantly despite the fact that these retailers are still showing year over year declines

by same star sales. it was the question that equity market applauded whenever a retailer decline in sales was not as deep as had been expected. that's not bullish news for the economy and stock market going forward and for the holiday shopping season. we're probably looking at the annual increase year over year increase holiday sales around 6%. sounds pretty good. the problem being that inflation is running i would say in the month of november at 7.5% so we're not able to keep pace with inflation in terms of sales, that imply as reduction in sales volumes, which will eventually lead to layoffs by those companies that supply these products. maria: it's a great point and point that bob made earlier this

week on mornings with maria because he was looking at revenue reported and he said there's no volume gains here and largely revenue and that revenue is as a result of inflation. these retailers have raised prices and so they've made more revenue and generated more revenue because prices are up again, 40 year high inflation. >> that's right, maria, might look at profits as being fake profits that have been artificially inflated by price inflation. you just cannot sustain profits growth if you're depending upon price increases while sales volumes or unit sales decline. maria: i mean, look, the federal reserve seems to be the only one trying to fight inflation. joe biden this week said he's going to extend the moratorium on the student loan debt. of course we see a 24% raise that he's going to give the rail union workers and they're still rejecting the deal. john, do you worry that we're going to see a strike from the rail union workers because four

unions have rejected the deal that the white house has brokered, and we're talking about december 9. they could start deciding to strike early december. what would that mean to an already weakened economy? >> of course i'm worried about a possible rail strike. according to the experts, such a strike could at least temporarily lead to a loss of 700,000 jobs. that's a lot of job losses and that might well be the event that helps to push the u.s. economy into a recession come early 2023. we have to go all the way back to 1970 when we had a strike in the auto industry where a labor action triggered a recession. maria: yeah, even if they don't strike, a 24% raise is significant and wondering if

that'll spark other unions saying look, my colleagues in the rail business got this and i want this or else striking. >> why not, maria. there's industry withs a lot of labor market tightness and employers perhaps have no choice but to give into demands for higher wages, more time off, whatever it might be. there's still a risk for an axil ration of wages in certain industries that lead to future price hikes it and prolong the current episode of price hike and as long as inflation hangs around, there's inflation rates. maria: the s&p global manufacturing purchasing manufacturing index came in below expectations for the month of december so clearly an economy that is weakening. i want to get your take on what's price intoed the market

because the federal re--- into the market and the federal reserve is unwinding the balance sheet to $95 billion a month and take as trillion out of liquidity in the market. will that create dis-russian for markets -- disruption for markets or is it all priced in? >> it's a lead up to spending and putting up ward treasure, continuing upward treasure on treasury bond yields and selloff of treasury and mortgage-backed securities by the bond yields and marge yields may remain too high given the underlying state of the economy and as a result economic growth, profits growth slower than otherwise. that's the case right now. bond yields are much too high given what the u.s. economy can shoulder. maria: all right, we'll leave it there. john, it's always a pleasure. thanks very much for being here. >> thank you, maria.

maria: john lonski joining us. it is the biggest shopping weekend of the year, but will soaring inflation hurt holiday sales? that's coming up next. stay with us. ♪

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maria: welcome back. grady trim seatbelt in the middle of all the shopping action on the magnificent mile. grady. >> reporter: good morning, maria. it's the biggest shopping event of the year and of all time and inflation changing the way we shop this black friday and cyber monday. we'll spend a record $500 today through cyber monday and up 12%

from last year and even though we're spending more, we're less because the dollars aren't going as far and we're buying seven fewer gift this is weekend compared to 2021. they also found more shoppers this year are relying on credit cards and buy now pay later programs. the folks we talked to say they're looking more closely for discounts and sometimes they're striking out. >> the prices are higher, yeah. right. >> yeah, definitely. >> i don't know the deals are any better this year. >> i've seen some 40%s, in my book that's pretty good. i like to see 50%s out there personally, maybe 60. >> you have to look and browse and find something. the coat was 40% so i got the shirt practically for free. >> reporter: looking ahead, adobe analytics predicts americans will spend some

$11 billion up 5% from a year ago and even with inflation, we're still spending. maria. maria: thank you, grady. my thanks to grady trimble. one important thing you need to know about ahead of next week, stay right there. ♪

maria: welcome back. we're getting a shed of light on the economy and i'm watching the rail negotiations right now and the current deal for rail union workers calls for a raise of 24% over five years, and it is offering one paid sick day. four of the unions reject it hat

wanting 15 paid sick days and they can only avert a rail strike if congress gets involved and congress demands that the rail workers accept the deal or calls for a cooling off period where negotiations continue. we'll be following it. there's another big show in the work next week and tune in every friday night at 7:00 p.m. eastern. start smart here on fox business every weekday from 6 to 9:00 a.m. eastern for mornings with maria and hope you start your day every weekday with us here on fox business. that's if for us this weekend. hope you had a wonderful thanksgiving and i'll see you again next time. ♪ jack: welcome to a special it