but i don't want to say it will be them, they show up at an auction and borrow money to pay the guys back from asher and everybody says every country like them i want to buy their debt either and then you can get into something like the asian crisis which can spin out of control so the risk of that is high. gerry: we started with the price of turkey and finishing with turkey so there you go. that's it for us this week. we'll be back next wk, tha you r joing .uto ekend all.ksgivg ek ahe.itii posions y for tzg tt

d nely 7,0 people ossed in the count iegally every sing day. hoe gop lead kevin marthy teateni timpeach holand surity secry alandro ma if te atetihe dsn'tsignthe r he. reing thtea aves and relee of latest mc mutes ch theederal reser hesow king econd t thedeceer cye founr john lski abt marketand is the biesshoppi day ofhe yea dampern hoday ending? we'rlookinatow this black friday compas to last year. all ming urighhere. but firshis ekend stoms anborder ptectioreportg an unpreedumber ot

aways atur stherborder. ilgally ossingnto thu.s. in theast two ars. th's an avere ofo 000 people d. house minotyeader ken mcrthy cling on homend secrarejdrmayork. ery acon, d every ilure giimpeacent quiry. maria:oininge is bgerty d senart anks vy ch for bng h severatimes at c youer tells abwhat y've se lling the bder is sece?

-- na sy isisuritcrsi e torug erdosend mosta arder d seetary markas doesn'know w's coming ross r on secity stn thhe cris andumanitian cris and they we undomented a 0,0 pele andit the thirlargescity in myome ste after navilland memphi nnesse in month'time and yorkass noringhis and thbiden ministtion m all r what ldemccartnt and isaying d we he to have accounbilitynd glahe's gettg to ts ght now.

mari yeah,hat's e poinof this, nator? why we ve this open borde we a should ree onhiand 100 pele arehend on the teorist tch li and y d thhere's thepeople theye tryi tget ilgals to vote inlectio. d i'm afra, maa, the'sl loof tru to . seats e poioned. congrsional t sed on citenship or ok asanctuy citi.te.ple loccated blue ates wre crs contl the leslatur andhey'll ctrol the coressiol ats ifhey cat s hier andery cynicaand hate to say , the's a greadeal of trh to

it. maa: we' putti a spotlht ont anweerand e bad d thwhhouse claianyl limit ader xjinpinon fental and onhe o ocovid- acro our border themin cld kee democrs blocd it. they blked it yet ain. i brouit up april a is enhcetl42o can use to stop legal ug smgling mingcrosthe sohern bder, parcularly isoninour ki.s agai pattyurrey fr t de se stood nd blked anlegisliothat i going setside title2t under the currt stcture.

we nd strengening itle rder ho ols le.ay,he after e fedel judgs acon, i ought is is the legislion ba that add ay immlyut thee tuanotr decrats n't ev do th. they'lstop anothing to collap the sthern boer and wel havee d moeaths and pooninof fennyl as a resu of thcrishat ll caade aftitle is remove olstagto meet inping.enc xiinping tak onetep. heoesn't evemeet j biden in t middl he basicly aows e n to comeo m and thenhile they were meetiliteray wh d more bullyg omhinesey

rimetearnoldhe u. rair forcanmarinease okawa, jan, 'st ofhe islandhain lking theour miain s th twan. after e meing th h army plan and tee shipsnterhe taiw air dense adnistraon cenr. >> it'a mplete lack of i se aunitedtes nate.tthe uned stase i s extrrdinary alard and azed thenit has nodone pan th anywhe in t wor outse of t u.s. boarr and it'saj eroachmt and whithouse uld and and ngme as its tollppened listens and viers day.mari what? >> whave tcall iout d stanup aga. buwe have white use

wiing toapitule to chi at eryurn and willg to structclate de with chinand wee all arabout thgreat mpromi othe biden mily wn itas to do with chi and hunr dehas ry sooand we kw wheher biguis a chi ideeply invoeds we and dpl concerng ande needo addrs and and up tchina agai cha only respes onthing and that is rength and amican cmpionsp has stngth b we're notoing it ria: rl ta on yo ecomicnd wre rig now faci a pential of a ilroad had se kind otentatef dealefore e dterm ur of e unns havjeedth ck day. rabut on one pth

senar, whas thlikeliod e midd othe hodays?n >> ihink highly like, ria. yohithe unn ss ithe p and e e dealtombers to gethrougthe eltions d mierm ections and on seng reaty and only alw foone addionalick day d ions ainfor 15nd tt's a big,ig gap. joe dedeclarictory is wasll parof theionsnd ate're sing now ishe whe thinis cing unveled and 's goi to aeal cris of billi a day economt estitecan bech greer ano 'll be snifica ainhains d wreaki havoc on the admistrati and bid d rike tget thugh the mierm eltions and se comi out od

methinnot do vy sofs castrop i mari senat, veryood to ta wh you th wkend. we sapprecte it and ank yovery >> le wise, ria. maa: senor big hager in tennsee is weend. feral rerve seso rai w highill th gand when m aski ecomistd cye foder jo lsknext. >> bas on amnt of ination and gs imotaryolicy undetand h high i think thrate wneed to goo get this j don rinow my own

♪ ♪ mercedes-benz is turning electric... completely... on its head. bringing legendary design... and state-of-the-art technology... to a fully-electric suv. the all-new, all-electric eqb from mercedes-benz. the virus that causes shingles is sleeping... in 99% of people over 50. it's lying dormant, waiting... and could reactivate. shingles strikes as a painful, blistering rash that can last for weeks.

and it could wake at any time. think you're not at risk for shingles? it's time to wake up. because shingles could wake up in you. if you're over 50, talk to your doctor or pharmacist about shingles prevention.

hi, i'm darlene and i lost 40 pounds with golo in just eight months. i gained an enormous amount of weight due to a medication i was put on. when i started the golo plan and taking release, i was surprised at how easy it was for the weight to come off. i've never done anything better in my life. maria: welcome back and take a look at where markets ended and

early close on black friday. fomc meeting minutes released this week how much will the federal reserve continue to raise interest rates and how high will they go? when will the hiking stop through the cycle president john lonski with me now and talk about economy and your money. john, great to see you and what are you expecting from the fed meeting december 13 and 14th? >> i think the fed will make it clear its fight against inflation is far from over. i see the federal funds rate being hiked up to 4.38%, which is 2.8% higher than the cycle that ended in 2018. this rate, this is very important. at 4.38%, the federal funds rate would be well above what is now a 3.75% ten year treasury yield. in the past when we many fed

funds so high relative to the 10 year treasury yield, economic slowdowns, if not recessions eventually followed. this is a very important warning signal of trouble ahead in 2023. maria: we've soon some misses in the past week and serious demand in destruction of housing and 7.25% mortgage rates and this week they came well off the highs, john, but the retail story was mixed. there's a lot of inventory reported and didn't get grate great guidance and a handful of them outperformed and how would you assess the week all about retail? >> i look at retail reports and i'm struck by the fact that in some cases, the stock prices of retailers manage to rise significantly despite the fact that these retailers are still showing year over year declines

by same star sales. it was the question that equity market applauded whenever a retailer decline in sales was not as deep as had been expected. that's not bullish news for the economy and stock market going forward and for the holiday shopping season. we're probably looking at the annual increase year over year increase holiday sales around 6%. sounds pretty good. the problem being that inflation is running i would say in the month of november at 7.5% so we're not able to keep pace with inflation in terms of sales, that imply as reduction in sales volumes, which will eventually lead to layoffs by those companies that supply these products. maria: it's a great point and point that bob made earlier this

week on mornings with maria because he was looking at revenue reported and he said there's no volume gains here and largely revenue and that revenue is as a result of inflation. these retailers have raised prices and so they've made more revenue and generated more revenue because prices are up again, 40 year high inflation. >> that's right, maria, might look at profits as being fake profits that have been artificially inflated by price inflation. you just cannot sustain profits growth if you're depending upon price increases while sales volumes or unit sales decline. maria: i mean, look, the federal reserve seems to be the only one trying to fight inflation. joe biden this week said he's going to extend the moratorium on the student loan debt. of course we see a 24% raise that he's going to give the rail union workers and they're still rejecting the deal. john, do you worry that we're going to see a strike from the rail union workers because four

unions have rejected the deal that the white house has brokered, and we're talking about december 9. they could start deciding to strike early december. what would that mean to an already weakened economy? >> of course i'm worried about a possible rail strike. according to the experts, such a strike could at least temporarily lead to a loss of 700,000 jobs. that's a lot of job losses and that might well be the event that helps to push the u.s. economy into a recession come early 2023. we have to go all the way back to 1970 when we had a strike in the auto industry where a labor action triggered a recession. maria: yeah, even if they don't strike, a 24% raise is significant and wondering if

that'll spark other unions saying look, my colleagues in the rail business got this and i want this or else striking. >> why not, maria. there's industry withs a lot of labor market tightness and employers perhaps have no choice but to give into demands for higher wages, more time off, whatever it might be. there's still a risk for an axil ration of wages in certain industries that lead to future price hikes it and prolong the current episode of price hike and as long as inflation hangs around, there's inflation rates. maria: the s&p global manufacturing purchasing manufacturing index came in below expectations for the month of december so clearly an economy that is weakening. i want to get your take on what's price intoed the market because the federal re--- into

the market and the federal reserve is unwinding the balance sheet to $95 billion a month and take as trillion out of liquidity in the market. will that create dis-russian for markets -- disruption for markets or is it all priced in? >> it's a lead up to spending and putting up ward treasure, continuing upward treasure on treasury bond yields and selloff of treasury and mortgage-backed securities by the bond yields and marge yields may remain too high given the underlying state of the economy and as a result economic growth, profits growth slower than otherwise. that's the case right now. bond yields are much too high given what the u.s. economy can shoulder. maria: all right, we'll leave it there. john, it's always a pleasure. thanks very much for being here. >> thank you, maria.

maria: john lonski joining us. it is the biggest shopping weekend of the year, but will soaring inflation hurt holiday sales? that's coming up nex what if there was a community of like minded people ready to support you when you need it most? christian health care ministries is an organization with over 40 years of trusted care who understands the importance of family. a group that sees you for who you are, regardless of your health history, offering values based affordable health care cost solutions. learn more today at yourchm.org about health care that puts you in control. moving forward with node- positive breast cancer is overwhelming. but i never just found my way; i made it. and did all i could to prevent recurrence. verzenio reduces the risk of recurrence of hr-positive, her2-negative,

node-positive, early breast cancer with a high chance of returning,... as determined by your doctor when added to hormone therapy. hormone therapy works outside the cell... ...while verzenio works inside to help stop the growth of cancer cells. diarrhea is common, may be severe, or cause dehydration or infection. at the first sign, call your doctor, start an antidiarrheal, and drink fluids. before taking verzenio, tell your doctor about any fever, chills, or other signs of infection. verzenio may cause low white blood cell counts, which may cause serious infection that can lead to death. life-threatening lung inflammation can occur. tell your doctor about any new or worsening trouble breathing, cough, or chest pain. serious liver problems can happen. symptoms include fatigue, appetite loss, stomach pain, and bleeding or bruising. blood clots that can lead to death have occurred. tell your doctor if you have pain or swelling in your arms or legs, shortness of breath, chest pain, and rapid breathing or heart rate, or if you are nursing, pregnant, or plan to be. i'm making my own way forward. ask your doctor about everyday verzenio. millions have made the switch from the big three i'm to the best kept secret in wireless: xfinity mobile. that means millions are saving hundreds a year with the fastest mobile service. and now, introducing, the best price for two lines of unlimited.

just $30 per line. there are millions of happy campers out there. and this is the perfect time to join them... add a line to your existing plan, or see for yourself how easy it is to save by talking to our helpful switch squad at your local xfinity store today. hi, i'm jason and i've lost 202 pounds on golo. so the first time i ever seen a golo advertisement, i said, "yeah, whatever. there's no way this works like this." and threw it to the side. a couple weeks later, i seen it again after getting not so pleasant news from my physician. i was 424 pounds, and my doctor was recommending weight loss surgery. to avoid the surgery, i had to make a change. so i decided to go with golo and it's changed my life. when i first started golo and taking release, my cravings, they went away. and i was so surprised. you feel that your body is working and functioning the way it should be and you feel energized. golo has improved my life in so many ways. i'm able to stand and actually make dinner.

i'm able to clean my house. i'm able to do just simple tasks that a lot of people call simple, but when you're extremely heavy they're not so simple. golo is real and when you take release and follow the plan, it works. maria: welcome back. grady trim seatbelt in the middle of all the shopping action on the magnificent mile. grady. >> reporter: good morning, maria. it's the biggest shopping event of the year and of all time and inflation changing the way we shop this black friday and cyber monday. we'll spend a record $500 today through cyber monday and up 12%

from last year and even though we're spending more, we're less because the dollars aren't going as far and we're buying seven fewer gift this is weekend compared to 2021. they also found more shoppers this year are relying on credit cards and buy now pay later programs. the folks we talked to say they're looking more closely for discounts and sometimes they're striking out. >> the prices are higher, yeah. right. >> yeah, definitely. >> i don't know the deals are any better this year. >> i've seen some 40%s, in my book that's pretty good. i like to see 50%s out there personally, maybe 60. >> you have to look and browse and find something. the coat was 40% so i got the shirt practically for free. >> reporter: looking ahead, adobe analytics predicts americans will spend some

$11 billion up 5% from a year ago and even with inflation, we're still spending. maria. maria: thank you, grady. my thanks to grady trimble. one important thing you need to know about ahead of next week, stay right there. ♪ you ok, man? the internet is telling me a million different ways i should be trading. look! what's up my trade dogs? you should be listening to me. you want to be rich like me? you want to trust me on this one. [inaudible] wow! yeah! it's time to take control of your investing education. cut through the noise with best-in-class education resources that match your preferred style of learning. learn your way. not theirs. td ameritrade. where smart investors get smarter℠.

maria: welcome back. we're getting a shed of light on the economy and i'm watching the rail negotiations right now and the current deal for rail union workers calls for a raise of 24% over five years, and it is offering one paid sick day. four of the unions reject it hat

wanting 15 paid sick days and they can only avert a rail strike if congress gets involved and congress demands that the rail workers accept the deal or calls for a cooling off period where negotiations continue. we'll be following it. there's another big show in the work next week and tune in every friday night at 7:00 p.m. eastern. start smart here on fox business every weekday from 6 to 9:00 a.m. eastern for mornings with maria and hope you start your day every weekday with us here on fox business. that's if for us this weekend. hope you had a wonderful thanksgiving and i'll larry: hello, folks, welcome to "kudlow." i'm larry kudlow. the problem with socialism, state central planning it never delivers the goods literally. show me a socialist economy like the old soviet union or today's china, venezuelaba