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ashley: i love that shot, the empire state building, partly cloudy skies behind new york city this morning of the first day of december, we are here already. let's get straight to your money, uninspiring after yesterday's rally, the s&p of 0.2, the nasdaq up 1/3 of 1%. the 10 year treasury, slightly new inflation data brought the treasury yield down a tad, the 10 year yield at 3.6% and the price of oil has been going up to dol $2.26, accrued at $82.80 a

barrel. we got the latest read on the manufacturing sector. what about the number? lauren: officially in contraction territory. for november it came in worse than expected, 49. under the key level of 50. i also want to show you the prices paid index because that was expected to rise. it actually fell and it fell a lot. it fell to 43, that the lowest, you have to go back to years, may 2020. that would be deflationary but this report could be stagflation every because you have less manufacturing, prices coming down to send a message to the fed that we are fixing inflation and i don't know. ashley: thank you. i thought -- it's okay, that's great, talk it out all the

time, yes, to myself and bounce around in my head. i thought up or manufacturing number would be good for the markets because it shows whatever the fed is doing is taking the heat from the economy but the dow off 172 points, so much for that, we will continue. we think we are right. let's take a look at what's going on with president biden, holding a bilateral meeting with the president of france in the white house, this is m macron's first visit since biden took office. we will monitor it through the morning and give you any updates throughout the show. now this. hedge fund boss michael barry predicting multiyear recession, he said and now deleted tweet, quote, what strategy will pull us out of this recession, what forces? there are none.

we are really looking at an extended multiyear recession. who is predicting this? there are none. he's a happy camper. let's bring in brian brumberg, great to see you, professor, let's pick up on that. we are facing a more serious recession than previously thought? >> i said for a long time 2023 will be a tough year because the fed so late to the game raising rates, so quick in raising them and the destruction we could see next year could be very real if consumer slowdown. we haven't seen that yet but there debt levels are getting to stratospheric levels. if that happens and consumers get nervous we are talking about real serious pain into next year. you talk to people, higher interest rates, look at the manufacturing, you see a slowdown, you see hiring slowed down a little bit and it will

slow down more on the news we are seeing picking up. all of that shapes up to be a dicey situation. ashley: you talked about hiring, the ceo of amazon says that the economy is a lot more's uncertain than previously thought and that is why there are so many layoffs, they are not the only ones. a bunch of companies are laying off workers, almost reported daily. how bad assign is that for the economy? >> it is a bad sign for recession. eventually these things show up in the numbers which we are seeing hiring reduced a little bit, the last number we got from a dp was below expectations so a trickle eventually becomes a flow and that become a deluge and you look at these companies right now and they are still dealing with high prices, now they are dealing with the fact they are getting nervous about consumers pulling back, they want to position themselves to deal with that and usually the first

way to do that is to freeze hiring and then look at layoffs and we are seeing that pattern happen. in the holiday season that can throw things awful bit into the new year, that's the dynamic we could very much see. ashley: stay right there, want to get to this, the heritage foundation says retail theft is making inflation worse. break it down for us. lauren: it is called organized retail theft smash and grab, talking about them for quite some time, the national retail federation says it cost the industry, cost retail $94.5 billion last year. i spoke with them about this after the target numbers came out when they said this was a major issue for them, these numbers were understated because it is not always reported so here's the deal. if the store is constantly being robbed they have two choices. >> of companies can't increase

their costs to cover the theft, the cost of the theft, if it raises cost above their revenues they will go out of business. they are destroying everything. you've got this incredible expense that really comes from lack of policeing. ashley: say that again. lauren: not much lawmakers can do because big cities in new york and california, you can still one thousand dollars and that's just a misdemeanor. of lawmakers want to create a utopian society with a second chance, you're not punished, it is a dystopia because you're making prices more expensive for shoppers and they have to ask the security guard to open the shells to buy deodorant and they are pushing businesses out. ashley: or in new york you have

people that steal from duane reade and arlette out and have stolen from duane reade 39 times in a month, it is ridiculous. how much more of this rampant crime can retailers handle, it is out of control. >> if you are one of those duane reades getting hit you don't handle it, you close, you've seen drugstores like that close, somebody's got to pay for this, this is the point. this isn't free. of a place is going to stay up and it has to pass the cost on to someone and that's happening to people who abide by the law living in places like new york, they are paying up for this because nobody is taking care of the client problem. lauren: not just the items that are being stolen, they, the windows are being broken, the damage they are doing over and over again to the physical store. ashley: we all pay for that, thank you very much, back to the markets.

i thought the weakness in manufacturing might be better news for the markets but the dow off 229 points, the nasdaq in positive. let's bring in sarah who joins us now. good morning to you. you say we are entering the year of inflection. my point to you is what inflections and how do investors navigate them? >> a big question but first i don't know if the theory is wrong about manufacturing data. consider the entry point where we are right now, the dow is up 20% from september, the technical definition of a market, 5%. %. we've seen quite the remarkable comeback, to be fair, but in 2023, next year we are going likely to see inflection points when it comes to growth. to interest rates, inflation as you were speaking about and

getting the trajectory of these three data points correct will be critical to being successful as an investor in 2023 because consider the fact that typically if you look at the stock market it typically turns 3 to 9 months on average before you see a trough in economic activity, that is a wide range so if you are someone who has been nervous this year, you are on the sidelines figuring how to plan to get reinvested through next year, is going to be critical because the stock market is a leading indicator. we are not going to call the end of a recession, we will see a turn following that. ashley: fed chair jerome powell signaling slower rate hikes could increase beginning this month but i always look at where they are headed, the terminal rates somewhere around 5 and one quarter of one%. and one 12:45%. how we get there i always think

is less important than that's the rate they are going to shoot for and what we have to live with. >> right, a really great point and the rally we saw yesterday was remarkable. fed chair powell didn't necessarily say anything different than we already knew. the expectation was already that they were going to slow the pace of rate hikes this month, 50 after four straight 75 basis point rate hikes and after that it is still in question and as you said if you look at the terminal rate, if you look at the pricing in the markets, the terminal rate in may of next year didn't budge so the expectation of where the federal reserve is going to end up did not change much, summer reading into the message fed chair powell didn't push back against the market rally we've seen this quarter so far, that he was a little more dovish than expected but let's be clear the federal reserve is raising interest rates, inflation is still high. next year we are likely going to see recession. there are bricks on the table

here. ashley: thank you for joining us this morning and pointing out that i'm not going crazy, that's always a good thing, appreciate it. okay, lahren, you're looking at some of the movers. we are looking at big lots, big, and lots, big mess. lauren: they sell home the corridor discount, wise into doing well? they reported a loss for the last quarter, $299 a share, their revenue was short as well and they pooled their guidance. dollar general is down 10%, high distribution and transportation costs, hard to protect your margins when you're selling stuff at $1.25.

where is the savings coming from? we need a winner. they make calvin klein, tommy hilfiger, the full-year forecast coming in the last quarter they had a loss, optimistic going forward. there is a winner. ashley: a winner indeed, thank you very much, now this. startling, the attorney general of montana believes fedex and ups may be tracking gun ownership for the white house, got more on that story coming up, us air marshals reportedly planning to refuse mandatory deployment orders to the southern border, they say abandoning their current assignments will leave flyers more vulnerable to threats. congress and integrated congressman mike waltz will take that on and democratic senators looking to reign in elon musk's twitter take over after he said the tech giant interfered in elections, hillary vann will have the full report from capitol hill next.

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ashley: democrats taking issue with twitter now that elon musk is in control. stuart: on capitol hill this morning, what do the democrats have a problem with? >> reporter: transparent and safer than the old twitter. republicans are looking forward to that because they want answers on how things have been

centered on the platform and why some things have been taken down. >> i think elon musk knows there are other stories twitter was told to suppress that affected conservatives in a negative way and helps democrats. this is something that is wrong, the government directly interfering with free-speech especially conservative free-speech and elon musk wants to set the record straight. >> some democrats want the old twitter back, senator elizabeth warren thinks musk is making content moderation decisions in a dark room by himself and wants more transparency around these decisions. so does the european union who threatened to ban twitter if they don't follow a checklist of rules and stop an arbitrary approach to reinstating band users but some democrats say things like freedom of speech is a gray area. >> do you think users have a right to freedom of speech even

if what they are saying is offensive or wrong? >> that is appointed judge but you can see some things are over the line. they have to be held responsible, these websites have to be held responsible for publishing them. >> reporter: tim cook will be here to meet with lawmakers. yesterday he met with elon musk and reportedly cleared the air that apple was never considering removing twitter from their apps store. ashley: interesting stuff. thank you very much. congressman mike waltz from florida joined me now. musk says twitter interfered with elections. can we expect that to stop now that he has taken over? >> it seems to be the case, we are awaiting for musk to publish various internal documents from twitter that show how they covered up the hunter biden story in the

run-up to an election. i'm very interested to hear how they reacted to covid and the covid origin in terms of it coming from the wuhan lab. facebook declared that a conspiracy theory, to twitter do the same? i think transparency here is something we are all going to welcome and that is the way it should be. ashley: want to get to the china issue. you are hot on china as a topic, as an adversary, beijing can't keep up with the centering of all the people protesting, what they are putting online. what do you make of these protests? >> we are talking about tim cook coming to washington. i would love to ask him as he has 70% of his manufacturing in china, what to going to take for him to decouple? how many millions of chinese

citizens will be locked in concentration camps, how many being welded into their apartments or trapped inside a factory with true slave labor, literally was will it take? will it take chinese government machine guns mowing down these poor people for tim cook to get a conscience? at the end of the day that blood that is happening in china is on apple's balance sheet and we should be holding them accountable. ashley: last one for you. us air marshals reportedly plan to refuse mandatory deployment orders on the southern border and even face possible termination. we are in the middle of the busy holiday travel season, shouldn't these air marshals stick to their current assignments? >> what has me worried, about not having air marshals on the plane, president biden gave an

international airport to the caliban, who are friends with al qaeda and others in kabul, they don't need to crash it into a building, they have easy access in afghanistan. we need those air marshals on the planes. ashley: the white house and secretary mayorkas deny there's an issue at the border. it begs the question why are they trying to get us air marshals down there if there is no problem? >> the border was secure last he testified under oath i will remind everyone. ashley: they continue to ignore it. >> they do. thank god for governor abbott, governor desantis, trying to take some kind of action. what i would love to see his actual military assets, boots on the ground, satellites,

intel, drones to go after these cartels. they are armed to the teeth, they are cooperating with the chinese, causing this humanitarian crisis and this administration, mayorkas and president biden are doing nothing about it except diverting agents from where we also need them which are on our airplanes. it is asinine and hope we can do something about it. ashley: makes no sense at all. congressman mike waltz, thanks for joining us. montana's attorney general is concerned fedex and ups may be tracking gun ownership for the white house. what exactly is giving him these concerns? >> several state attorney general sent a letter to the administration asking why change your shipping policy to now require federal firearms license holders to need 3 accounts to separate the

firearms they shift, one for firearm parts and others for accessories and products, why the atomization in our you in cooperation with the white house in doing so? the a g's concern is is create a database of who bought what and that will be shared with authorities who may be using this as a workaround since they can't get more control passed through congress. that's what they are saying and they want to know if they are using big business. ashley: sam bankman-fried speaking out for the first time since his company's collapse, roll it. >> i saw it as a driving business. i was shocked. ashley: not even looking at the camera, denying criminal wrongdoing. charles payne will deal with spf's response in the next hour.

the you buddy deb wants its neighbors to set russian oil prices at $60 a barrel. will the new price disrupt energy markets at home? i will ask energy ceo dan eberhardt next. ♪ as an independent financial advisor, i stand by these promises: i promise to be a careful steward of the things that matter to you most. i promise to bring you advice that fits your values. i promise our relationship will be one of trust and transparency. as a fiduciary, i promise to put your interests first, always. charles schwab is proud to support the independent financial advisors who are passionately dedicated to helping people achieve their financial goals.

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earn big time with chase freedom unlimited. ♪ ♪ ashley: look at these markets, the dow off 370 points, the s&p down half of one person, the nasdaq down 0.6%, downward momentum kicking in. you are looking at movers, let's begin with netflix. lauren: they are letting users preview content before releasing it in full. a major down day, netflix up 3%. they dropped the trailer, the harry and megan doc you series, i watched it. it is a minute.

it felt like a sweet 16, intimate moment and megan says it makes sense you hear our story from us. if you want to hear their story, 6 part series coming soon. let's move on, they are still up, big deal. discount retailer is rallying in a down market, stronger earnings, management credits, disciplined expense management so that protect their margins and kroger had strong third-quarter earnings, they boosted their outlook. the sector they are in, one of the worst performing sectors. ashley: the you buddy deb is asking members to set the russian oil price at $60. let's bring in dan eberhardt. will what would this mean for oil prices?

what do you make of that price and what impact does it have for us? >> they are trying to hit the sweet spot, this shows disunity in russia because poland and other central european countries, $30 a barrel, the real story is after they do this does opec cut supply to boost the price further? does opec add additional supply to neutralize the effect? ashley: what distance does it make to russia, to sell happily china, iran and so on? is it more symbolic than anything? >> it is symbolic. if you look at the price for russian crude with the discount they are getting, it is at the $60 level.

this will get a bunch of headlines but won't hurt putin in the pocketbook or his ability to prosecute the war. if the white house doesn't want to rock the boat with russia, $60, up to $30, those countries want, they would hurt. ashley: putin likes to react, knee-jerk reactions, what if russians said forget it, we will cut off supplies to europe altogether and what impact would it have a? >> they could do that. the economies that would affect the most be the western european economies. the price spikes, france, germany, spain are susceptible to increased oil price hurting the economy, they are trying to play the middle. i don't think it will hurt russia.

ashley: dan eberhardt, thank you so much for joining us. let me bring in brian bremberg, what could happen to the energy markets? is it purely symbolic? >> for to work you need no cheaters. we have two big cheaters in the world, china and india. they will keep buying russian oil, $60 a barrel, this doesn't do a lot except get headlines. if you want to change the game there is only one solution, you've got to pump more oil out of the market, the us is the only country that can do that. here we are playing around the margins playing with price caps, trying to make sure nobody cheats, that won't work. the answer is flood the world

with more oil and that will neutralize russia more than anything else. ashley: the answer is everywhere. we got the oil. >> the answer is not a. ashley: what is the ceo of volkswagen saying about rising energy prices? lauren: they are hurting europe and major economies like germany are expected to transition to electric. the ceo says unless we managed to reduce energy prices in germany, reliably, investments in energy production or new batteries, in germany and the you buddy deb, will be practically unviable. it costs too much to do this and look at what we did in the us through the inflation reduction act, that gives companies all over incentive to produce here in the us and not there.

the cost of energy is an extreme problem for the green dreams of europe. ashley: yes it is. let's move on. we have time to get brian in. lauren: make it quicker. ashley: what are your thoughts on that? >> it takes energy to make a green product and if you undercut here energy products unit make any green thing, this is the problem in europe and it will be the problem in the us if we keep pursuing this policy of undercutting our advantage in fossil fuels. ashley: the irony of it all. now this. it may soon cost you even more to ride subways in new york city, we will tell you how much the mta could hike prices. the fed could slow rate hikes as soon as this month but the fight against inflation is far from over. edward lawrence will have the

latest from the federal reserve next. ♪

ashley: let's look at these markets. the dow up 440 points. this, yesterday's big gains begging some back today, s&p down 500% in the nasdaq down half of 1%, waiting for tomorrow's jobs report to see what the month of november provided regarding jobs and doing some selling. fed chair jerome powell signaling a slowdown in interest rate hikes as soon as this month but he warns the fight against inflation is far from over. edward lawrence at the new york federal reserve and you will

interview new york fed president john williams later today. what can we expect? >> reporter: we will get some of these answers to the questions we had from chairman powell's speech. at the federal reserve, thousands, tens of thousands of gold bars, the interview becomes more important now because of chairman powell's speech, he talked about moderating the pace of rate hikes so we could be looking at 50 basis points for the next meeting and that is something we will talk to new york fed president john williams about. powell says more rate increases might be appropriate at the moderated pace and this is why. >> people take more evidence that inflation is declining and by any standard inflation remains too high. >> pc inflation month over

month was flat out this morning but year over year, falling 6%, fed members, the labor market imbalance, have to get workers off the sidelines, and here is powell on the jobs that are open in the us. >> right now the labor market is strong. we never had 1.7 job openings, this is a great labor in that sense. too great in away because it is added to inflation. >> the labor market going to be added to inflation, part of the sticky inflation the federal reserve is having trouble getting in front of. we will have more answers at 1:30 eastern time when you have this exclusive interview with john williams. ashley: we look forward to that.

let's bring in brian, we hear jay powell say we've still got a long way to go with regard to tamping down this inflation. are be close to the peak, what is your take on it? >> in terms of increases probably peaked. how fast do we go down and how low can we get? in terms of the next increasing interest rates, accorded point increase, they don't know. markets don't know. a lot of uncertainty still here. ashley: you mentioned the job market, still out of whack, 1.7 jobs for every person, that is a tight labor market which pushes up wages. how do they do that

effectively? >> you got to get more people off the sidelines, that is the issue and so much money flowing to people who aren't working and as long as that is happening it is hard to get people back in the labor force and that is a huge problem for businesses so that's got to change and until the does supply side picks up, this is a hard rock salt. ashley: get out there and work, now this. it may cost even more for the privilege to ride subways in new york city. how much are we talking about? >> 290 after a potential 5% fare increase if it goes through. right now you pay 275, that would go to 290 and 305 in the year 2025, the mta needs money, ridership, new yorkers are

scared to ride the subway because of crime and working from home. i rode the subway, when was the last time you heard that? two people in new york riding the subway. ashley: and they admit it. when prices go up, you get more turnstile jumpers as well. the mayor of new york america adams facing serious pushback after he moved forward with policy changes to crack down on homelessness. >> he is authorizing the police department and agencies to remove homeless people even if it is against their will from the streets if they have mental illness or show signs of mental illness, to get them treatment and ongoing care. the criticism is twofold, first people are saying shouldn't use police as social workers, that could do more harm than good and second the whole idea of your body or choice, you can't

compel anybody to do anything they don't want to. mental illness is the main reason why people are homeless. i think he is helping them and helping everybody who lives in the city. make it safer. when you are mentally ill you don't know you need treatment. ashley: couldn't agree more. now this. the white house as it will says it will continue to use twitter even though musk's takeover opens the door to misinformation. >> when are you going to delete the white house twitter account? >> why would we do that? >> you are keeping an eye on twitter, not a suitable platform so why use it? ashley: good question. we have the full response, and the new york post editorial board says the liberal media wants them to talk about rising crime because it hurts the

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ashley: white house press secretary karine jean-pierre was asked if the white house will delete its twitter account after she said the administration will keep a close eye on twitter. >> when you going to delete the white house twitter account? >> why would we do that? >> you are saying you're keeping an eye on twitter because it might not be a suitable platform so why use it? >> i want to be clear, the president has always said and has been very clear in his believe it is important on social media platforms to take steps to reduce hate speech and misinformation. media platforms make independent choices about information they present. ashley: brent bozell joins me now. in this case a democrat -- are democrats just upset they can no longer control twitter? >> yes, that is all it is.

let's understand what hate >> misinformation means, anything contrary to their narrative. what has happened is we now know the justice department, mark zuckerberg -- to bury the hunter biden story which would have cost president biden the presidential election, that is an absolute fact. they are working with people to stifle free-speech, all elon musk has done is say let's have free-speech, you see the true colors of the radical left, true colors of the biden administration, we can't have that. ashley: what are they frightened about? the handwringing and pearl clutching, don't understand what the big fear is? >> the truth, that's all it is, they want to control information in america, this is scary stuff. laughing but shouldn't be laughing, this is scary stuff.

this is big brother where they tell you what is and what isn't acceptable and now elon musk is breaking some eggs and saying the american people will decide what is and isn't accessible, not the white house. ashley: 5 got into this subject, tv gold, the new york post editorial board says the liberal media wants us to stop talking about rising crime because it hurts the democrats. classic, is it not? >> this has been going on since the riots. this is cnn, a headline, minneapolis was always on fire, quote is fiery but mostly peaceful protests after police shooting, msnbc, they've gone off the deep end, doing the same thing, they had our you

sheedy who was on television saying the same thing, peaceful protest, the city is on fire but a peaceful protest now you have them going after lee zeldin because he talked about crime and this is a quote from lester holt. not by reality but videos of rampant lawlessness and some unsettling headlines. he is accusing zeldin of not knowing what he's talking about. he was almost assassinated, his family was almost shot, he knows a thing or 2. crime is the number one issue that will hurt the left so you've got the media doing damage control and that is all this is. ashley: we are just not allowed to talk about it, terrific

stuff as always, we could go all day on this, which we could but we can't. i want to bring back brian bre bremberg, do you feel safe? >> some places i do and sometimes i don't. i want the news on it, somebody to tell me what is going on so i can make decisions. the post is a new source in new york, i want to know about inflation. that's not convenient to the progressive narrative. i want to know how it is affecting me. news outlets are supposed to report the news, crime is the news. ashley: it is not being made up. it is happening. thank you for joining us, it has been a pleasure. still ahead on the show, charles payne, the 11 a.m. hour of "varney and company" is next.

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>> the fbi under donald trump went to twitter and went to facebook and told them that they should suppress these stories. donald trump's own administration was trying to prevent him from winning. this is the insanity of woke corporations. i think that's a