democrats about the threats to democracy and we must accept elections and we can have conspiracy theories and this is very, very dangerous, the house democrats unanimously selected a man repeatedly suggested that donald trump selection was illegitimate as their leader. i'm sure james will see lots of columns, published about this, wringing hands about the threat to democracy. lots of cable news segments and other channels. entry to be very, very concerned about that. they are even applying the standards to both sides, don't they always. >> that is something we can probably agree on. we got to leave it there. thanks to you guy and richard. thank you for joining us, thank you to all of you for being with us. gerry baker will be back next week with more in-depth interviews on the "wall street journal at large

>> wright sponsored by global x etfs. >> we week ahead. i am jack hough, a look at the 2013 playbook, sarah malik will join us. disney swaps again, amc networks laying off, streaming is under stress. what does it mean for stocks? we begin with three things investors should be thinking about, stocks posted back-to-back gains in the past two months. is this the powell pivot? the housing market is a fixer-upper but housing stocks have curb appeal. text titan relationship check, musk, zuckerberg picks his own apple fight and who or what is

fake the? on the "barron's roundtable," ben levisohn, carleton english and my twin brother andrew bary. fraternal twins. i want to start with you. nothing lasts forever, even cold november rain. this past november neither cold nor rainy. what do you make of it? >> 5.4% gain but it came after a fantastic october, there was no halloween scare, 8% in october, 14%, the best since december 2020, driven by signs that inflation peaked. may be the fed is ready to pivot. jack: stocks soared after powell talked about moderating

the pace of rate increases and bond yields coming down. and is this a pivot or a double pivot? in basketball you are in a double pivot? >> the ultimate game of chicken. the fed is looking at things and we need to keep raising rates. the market is not buying it, the market is saying the fed will blink at the first sign of real economic weakness. who is going to blink first? someone is going to be wrong and it is pretty scary. jack: what's the most important indicator? andrew: i will look after the week ahead. the fomc meeting? if it is weaker than expected,

a nice rally and it is up to powell. the market is trying to read him and what is going to happen and is he going to do it? jack: take a couple deep breaths. will us house prices rise or fall in the year ahead? what are you more confident in? >> a 5% decline in housing prices but home-building stats rallied in the last couple and more to come, i am more confident about the builders. jack: tell me the names you like? andrew: lennar is well-run. class b shares, super voting stock, better way of playing it right now.

jack: the shares are cheaper, what else do you like right now? andrew: the leading homebuilders, and interest rate increases. and around book value, 8 times earnings. it is an acquisition candidate for berkshire hathaway. jack: blackstone will not outflows, nontraded, there are risks you have been talking about for a while. andrew: one of the biggest trends is alternative funds to retail investors, blackstone, the biggest fund is this fund called be read. that has limited liquidity to investors, look at the redemption, too many people want out. it is bad news for the

burgeoning industry which is hot with a lot of brokers and investors. jack: high drama with check titans. let's start with elon musk took a swipe at apple, twitter and i hear musk and apple's tim cook our pals. carleton: as if elon musk doesn't have enough going on, why not take on one of the biggest companies in the world? apple charges 30% commission to apps developers to collect a million more on its apps store, not the first time someone has raised issues, spotif gmac did, coin base did. elon who is holding this more and charging more for verification doesn't want to pay 30% so he says apple is looking to take twitter off the platform, tim cook had a meeting with him and realized it is a misunderstanding. everything is fine now.

jack: mark zuckerberg weighed in about apple, it is the only platform where one company can control what apps are on the device, don't think it is sustainable or good. really get a sitdown with tim cook? carleton: facebook is being hurt by apple's privacy, not just the commission but tracking how facebook makes its money or meta, i should say. it is getting tough. jack: facebook facing regulatory backlash. let's look at one advocacy group, too little regulation, let's look at what is happening with this guy's head in the video. >> one thing you can depend on congress doing is nothing. one moment. if i make myself more comfortable.

>> that is better. like i was saying, over the past 5 years congress held 30 hearings to hold big tech accountable. jack: they are calling that fake zuck. what i call that? carleton: ai technology, stuff you can do online, create a video that impersonates someone's likeness, or if there is a fake jack hough touting bitcoin? jack: there's

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jack: jack palm beach aroter s down for a look at the investment managers playbook for the new year. >> thanks for joining us. you have given "barron's roundtable" an exclusive look at the playbook for investors. one thing that caught my eye is inflation is on everyone's mind. you are on board with the wall street consensus, peak inflation but not so optimistic we will get back where we want inflation to be. >> the landscape is shifting from inflation risk to inflation risk with the monetary policy we have seen. they have been optimistic recently because inflation has peaked towards a reopening but we have to face the music in 2,023 around 3 key issues, what is inflation and at what slope does it decline, second is

recession and third is continued monetary policy issues and what it means for higher or longer rates and how long will it last? jack: how deep will recession be? what is your best guess and how long will it slow the economic period? >> because of extreme tightening we have seen we get a form of mild recession, factors to determine how deep it will be? manufacturing data move to contraction territory. the consumer remain strong but dipping into their savings rates to continue to spend and employment and wage inflation important in determining what the fed will do. employment remarket to remain strong but if they don't in 2023 that is assigned we will hit recession. jack: we have seen a lot of anecdotal reports of layoffs. feels like we are beginning that process that is painful but the fed wants to get us

there. what should investors be doing? what stocks can perform well? >> you want to look at companies and strategies resilient to recession where you can generate the highest returns can we are concerned about equities at these levels so areas like infrastructure companies which tend to be more recession resilient because they are in waste management sectors and utility sectors. these are companies with strong balance sheets and consistently increase dividends gives you some volatility protection as we continue to go through this turmoil. jack: you keep putting out the garbage, one stock pick that caught my eye was zimmer biomed. after the pandemic people cut out elective surgeries because they will fall, are people going back to get hips and shoulders replaced? >> healthcare is an area that continues to grow even in a weaker economy, people will go back to do more procedures now that covid is behind us, there's a secular trend of

aging demographics, and they should have revenue growth and continue to maintain margins going forward. they are at peak levels for companies. margins could have downside, with higher pricing or volumes. jack: it is a high-volume. one more pick, not very well-known, german industrial. >> industrial gas companies continue to grow when the economy is weak, they have a nice dividend yield over one% and clean energy story as they move towards cleaner technologies. the company tends to raise on the quarter which they just did and get conservative guidance so it is well-positioned industrial glass company that is resilient in a slower economy. jack: let's hit bonds, they were supposed to be the safe

things, that didn't happen. the hike in yields was painful in the short term and in the long term, getting long-term bonds. the economy slows. >> the bond portfolio investors rely on have not built well, they have significant declines. a lot of the pain is priced into fixed income because the peak of interest rate increases are behind us. more moderate raised increases going forward, it will be less impactful, we like high quality bonds of the total returns are almost equity levels going forward. investment bonds and municipal bonds are interesting because the fundamentals of municipalities are strong and the returns look higher than they have been in decades. >> we are hearing from advisers, they are happy clients can get real returns. >> that is important especially in inflationary environment where we need returns that beat inflation. jack: thanks so much.

jack: thanks to sarah malik. the outlook for streaming stocks and big players like disney and (fisher investments) in this market, you'll find fisher investments is different than other money managers. (other money manager) different how? aren't we all just looking for the hottest stocks? (fisher investments) nope. we use diversified strategies to position our client's portfolios for their long-term goals. (other money manager) but you still sell investments that generate high commissions for you, right? (fisher investments) no, we don't sell commission products. we're a fiduciary, obligated to act in our client's best interest. (other money manager) so when do you make more money, only when your clients make more money? (fisher investments) yep. we do better when our clients do better. at fisher investments, we're clearly different.

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jack: netflix founder reed hastings regrets not rolling out advertising sooner. at disney, bob chapek is out and bob iger is back into the tv business, not the theater chain, christina spade is leaving after 3 months and the company is laying off workers. all of it points to streaming stress. what is the problem and is

there a fix? disney, disney plus streaming service would be profitable by its next fiscal year, it might lose another 3 billion in streaming business this year, and netflix generates free cash but just a little bit and has been streaming since 2007 and that's when the first iphone came out. is the streaming business ever going to be as profitable as the legacy cable television business? carleton: no. what you point out about disney and how long it will take to become profitable they have a catalog people are going to watch and love but other streamers not only have to pay for licensing for former programs but a ton for new programming and on paramount plus, sylvester stolen, they are paying the former rocky a hefty penny to get that and

will be chasing talent to produce new shows. >> carlton is right about the short term but they can get there. but spending less money on things like towels or, they have to pull back on that spending and decide what is worthwhile and what is not and there will have to be consolidation. there are too many people. jack: would you be nervous about show business stocks? >> a couple players, noneconomic and they make apple in this, and oh -- amazon, disney, netflix, they will not give up, paramount is in there, warner bros. comcast is in there, 7 major players, i would highlight paramount as a value stock. i pay a fortune for my cable. >> what is the total bill? how much are you spending per month? >> $400 a month.

>> anybody want to go higher than that? you wouldn't count out netflix stock. why is that? carleton: you look at the stocks, the charts, a choppy chart where they pay a lot to get users but they always come around with that tentpole show that beat expectations by 75% and since cut losses in half. jack: can disney be fixed? people might be griping about the prices, profits are riding high, it is just the streaming business. can it be fixed? >> they have to fix the parks, they make a ton of money but they are warning their consumer, not a good thing. it goes back to these costs, they are spending too much money. i love things like andor but it cost too much. jack: is bob iger the guy to make it happen?

ben: he was dealt a terrible hand, we will see if they can solve this. jack: we mentioned takeover targets. tell me about one. to out there is bite-size and tasty. carleton: andrew likes paramount, that a takeover target, it is tough to get the scale they need to be a major player. andrew: the redstone family does not want to sell and they missed their opportunity and now they are playing a weaker hand. jack: any potential buyers? andrew: will antitrust regulators allow it to be bought and will redstone cell? berkshire hathaway owns the stock at higher levels. ben: we are seeing consolidation internally, with hln at cnn scaling back. the channels they have the don't make enough money will start scaling back.

jack: everyone give me want to show i should be watching on streaming, who goes first? andrew: you got to write -- watch the is really show, a lot of consonants, hard to pronounce, a jewish family drama set in israel, engrossing, must-see. jack: it is on streaming. carleton: that has been on my list a while that i am watching white lotus on hbo. love the scenery. ben: i want to watch wednesday but i am watching ncis. jack: small fries look tasty, when research shows people remember commercials with nostalgia. so to help you remember that liberty mutual customizes your home insurance, here's one that'll really take you back. it's customized home insurance from liberty mutual!!! only pay for what you need. ♪ liberty. liberty. liberty. liberty. ♪ i have moderate to severe ulcerative colitis.

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jack: small-cap stocks are the cheapest they have been relative to large caps since the dot.com stock bubble. i spoke with jill kerry hall, the small-cap strategy head, she says small caps are priced to return 12% a year over the next decade that will be large caps by 5 percentage points. a story breaking that down, i have asked all of you for big ideas on small company shares. start us off. andrew: global business travel, the leading corporate -- it is a long name, don't know why they have so many words in that name but it is the leading corporate travel agent, a play on a revival of business travel in this country, the leader and a work in progress financially but pretty attractive.

carleton: i like tapestry which is behind handbag companies, 3. 2% dividends, if you are worried about a recession i would like outcoached held up pretty well during the great financial crisis because the price is $300. the person buying $2,000 purse does not mind trading down, the person who may be buying a lazzaro purse might safer of quality. jack: $300 is the cheap one. ben: a tiny industrial company the jump 50% after the be good earnings speak. orders are growing, the company is executing well and looks like more gains are ahead. jack: great ideas and thank you. to read more check this week's addition of barron.com and the following is an important paid program about humana medicare advantage prescription drug plans, sponsored by humana. at humana, we know that no two