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such a great singer, makes you feel so cozy, rainy new york, makes you realize it is the season, we realize now we don't have any more money to buy presents but we have elvis. we are on top of a lot of developments including a selloff that goes unabated. the senior editor is reminding us back to back, one%, all the major averages especially the dow, born of a concern, nothing getting in the way the federal reserve continuing to hike rates, not as big but longer after bringing us to bigger levels, not just stopping with the lending rate of 5%. into that vacuum of certainty, people say it is typically what happens and it is happening today. keep an eye on developments that could be good from the markets.

china has a way of dealing with these pop up cases and not shutting everything down. susan lee following those developments in arizona, they are joined at the hip today. >> if you are a morocco fan you have good results. in the quarterfinal, one of the largest ever foreign investments, the biggest in the state by taiwan semiconductor, they are investing $12 billion in 2 that in the state. 10,000 total tech jobs they say, direct tmc hires, encouraged by apple which is one of the largest customers

and apple wants to make more high end chips state side instead of asia after the chip shortage, electronic and car production the cost companies hundreds of billions in sales, apple ceo tim cook will be on hand with president biden and other chipmaking executives, lisa hsu, $50 billion chips act, bipartisan bill, a big reason so many are building in the us providing subsidies, and money to upgrade old ones and the white house says america needs to protect high tech supplies and be less dependent on foreign countries. >> 40% of the world's semiconductors has fallen to 12 that in these advanced areas we literally produce 0%. we are dependent on foreign supply chains and principe dependent on chips that are produced in taiwan.

>> reporter: grants and subsidies a been a big motivator, tens of billions across different states. samsung investing $200 billion in texas over the next few decades. according to the journal reporting they are saying the high cost, construction snags and lack of skilled personnel but they will open the first chip plant in 2024, and they are heading to the quarterfinals. neil: this is soccer we are talking about. a huge deal, this is the one they kicked back and got it. you can always endure my ignorance. appreciate that. of who's who that gathered in arizona for this thing. you hear about taiwan semi conductors, tens of billions of dollars planted arizona.

tim cook, susan revealed, and lisa sue will be in attendance. until separately has two plants it is building, like chip factories, they are only 15 to 20 billion but if you add it up, with fiber-optic, fiber-optic cable companies, you got better than $100 billion on the semi conductor friend, the goal of which goes beyond what is happening with this administration but not to be so dependent on asia, you follow that closely, there's the implication of this important powwow today. there is this limited window to try to get some bipartisan spending done if they can get that done. chad program. >> reporter: the deadline is

next week but there's talk of a short-term bill to avoid a government shutdown. then congress would pass a broader bill just before christmas. >> working on getting something done before the deadline but a lot of negotiating left to do. both sides understand fully funding the government is extremely important, anything less, the federal government's ability to serve the public. we don't want to see that outcome. >> reporter: house minority leader kevin mccarthy, a short-term bill until the gop, to put its mark on federal spending rather than allowing democrats through next fall. >> 28 days from republicans having the gavel. anyone working with them is wrong. >> this is an effort by mccarthy, this exposes a problem.

passing the government funding bill with narrow majority next year, forging an agreement with the democratic senate. fox told mccarthy it may secretly prefer the government now. the annual defense bill will lift the mandate for troops to get the covid vaccine. >> even this weekend, the mandate hurt requirement, the reality is the soldiers, marines, airmen, sailors voting with their feet. >> the defense bill comes out today, the house debated thursday. neil: does kevin mccarthy have 218 votes he's going to need to be the next speaker of the house? >> not just yet but here's the key.

you don't technically need 218 votes, let me take you down the rabbit hole. the total is the person who gets the most votes, outright majority of those casting ballots by name. let me say that again. the winner is the member who gets the most votes by name out of those casting ballots. of the house comes in, they will be down one, the democrat from virginia, magic number is 218, 217 would not get you there. of some numbers vote present but don't vote for somebody by name the number could be lower. in the last 25 years there have been 3 speaker elections where you have 3 speakers, john weiner --boehner newt gingrich and speaker pelosi who won with 219 votes.

neil: thank you. what about steve more? you heard some of that conversation. it is not give me that kevin mccarthy is the next speaker of the house. it is his race to lose but we don't know. what if he doesn't get it? >> that is the question. i just learned something i didn't know you didn't need to get 218 votes. i do know you may not know you are probably know that the speaker of the house does not have to be a member of the house so there's talk about people like newt gingrich being speaker, some other person, lee zeldin or some other republican star. neil: steve more's name. >> what is that? neil: i heard steve more's name mentioned. >> that will never happen but it is highly likely at the end

of the day kevin mccarthy will be speaker but what is happening now is some of the conservatives want some concessions from soon to be speaker mccarthy about how the house will be run. there's a lot of negotiating going on but at the end of the day i put high odds but kevin mccarthy will be speaker of the house. . 20 then there is the issue of how the republican leaders assuming it is mitch mcconnell in the senate, if it is mccarthy in the house, how they will get along and how they navigate these waters going into a presidential election, two different agendas. what do you think? >> let's go back to what you were talking about, the budget situation, that the immediate issue at hand, how do you get through this year with a budget and i heard some of these democrats say it will be armageddon if we don't get a

budget passed but i think two things. republicans need to get the budget passed and then when you have a republicans in the house, they are stronger negotiating position to get a better budget. the most important thing in terms of public policy is for the republicans to start taking a chainsaw to this budget. we added $5 trillion above the normal budget levels in the last 3 years since covid hit. we've got to start bringing that spending down with at least one trillion dollars of savings and that's not going to happen until the republicans have control of the house. neil: thank you for that. we are following the last senate race in this country that will be decided today in the peach state. connell mcshane is there with the latest and the weather because that has a lot to do

with the results by 7:00 pm eastern time, the polls close.

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neil: time to settle the one last senate race, who gets 50% or more in the state of georgia. connell mcshane with the latest. connell: you heard over and over from herschel walker's point of view if you wants to win today needs a huge in-person turnout on election day, people coming to vote for him, that has always been the case in both sides agree on that. the location where we are there was an early surge, people came out and it quieted down. it was quiet for a while all

morning long and the weather started to improve, the rain has stopped and the crowd picked up a little bit. we will see how it goes the rest of the day. we talk to some voters after they cast their ballot. one person was telling me about all the anti-has seen, warnock outspending the republicans by 2 to one over the last month. asked if that had an impact -- >> i'm sure it did. my youtube feed has been political ads, don't vote him, definitely an impact. >> reporter: herschel walker and rafael warnock have been out and about holding election day events you don't always see. they took this opportunity, one last chance to make their case. >> my closing messages i thank them for what they have done, we are going to go out and win this election, herschel walker will be the senator and get things changed.

>> i got a feeling that the people of georgia are going to get this right and we are going to get this done one more time. >> reporter: today will not tip the balance of power in the senate, democrats have clinched control but if warnock wins, 51-49, democrats will outnumber republicans on all senate committees, that could be something to watch. the other thing to watch is the paul closing time, 7:00 pm we will finally know who the next senator from georgia will be. neil: connell mcshane, chief national correspondent. president obama's deputy chief of staff 2,009 through 11, campaign manager for president obama in the 2012 reelection campaign. that was dicey for a while.

good to see you. >> good to be here. neil: let me ask what is at stake in georgia because democrats secured control of the senate down to a 50/50 senate. what does it 51-49 margin do? >> georgia doesn't matter anymore and it does because as your reporter said if you get 51 versus 50 you control the committees. every committee is tied when trying to get nominees and legislation, you need a majority vote out of committee, democrats can't get that. so they do a motion to blast a bill are nominee that takes more time. if you think of what republicans do in the house they will take control in january and pass bills and start negotiating on the budget. on some of those things.

democrats can't get bills out of committee to pass bills in the senate. it will be a problem. if you are chuck schumer you are desperate to win tonight so you have control of the senate chamber your majority leader of. neil: let me ask you about a coalescing around the president of the united states among prominent democrats. it began if you go back a few weeks with the governor of california saying in no way is he going to challenge president biden, he will be easily reelected. we heard the same from hakeem jeffries saying a biden presidency has an extraordinary record. everyone seems for the time being to be gathering around the president. do you think that continues? >> i do and there's two reasons. you and i are not old but we are experienced and we remember the two presidents who had

primaries, jimmy carter in 80 and george bush the first in 92 both went on to lose their general elections, that's a piece of history democrats are clear about. we have much better election than people expected in part because we did president biden's message, talked to the economy, drove messaging to republicans and he should be our nonmoney. we are done with the silly season of i want to run against the president. he may have someone little in there but there will not be a hillary versus bernie we will have a unified democratic party when the republicans have their circus for the next year or so. neil: maybe that's a snapshot for the time being. i reminded someone who can take the football away from charlie brown and all of a sudden president biden is stumbling again. he's had a bit of a roll here, doing better than expected.

lost to the senate itself or the house itself i should say. we finish where we started in the beginning with the view we might have a split government but no guarantee this momentum extends to the markets, certainly to the economy. how do you play that out? >> most important question isn't primaries or political matters. the most important question for reelection is the economy. every morning, president obama's campaign, economic numbers couldn't be what the white house must, should, and will focus on. it doesn't matter who the republicans nominated, it will be hard. you have a very focused white house on the economy, we will look at those numbers and democrats will sit back and try

to do what they can to help the president with the economic agenda. neil: do you think inflation continues to gain the traction it does, that this is a slow moving massive stump. >> two numbers, the first, voters view the economy in the last 10 presidential elections baked in by summer of the presidential election. by summer of 2024 democrats need to have a good story to tell on economics that you and i talked a month ago. inflation was the number one issue, economy is the number to issue, but swing voters into voting for the democrats because republicans have gone too far on social issues like abortion and donald trump stayed an issue. it's not just inflation tied, democrats lose, it is what the republicans do and what kevin mccarthy is doing. he's trying to be very focused

on moving an economic agenda, the first thing he has done, doesn't want to talk about social issues that hurt them in the last election, got smart on the republican side and both sides looking at each other saying what can be done on the economy? neil: great catching up with you. we are not old, we are just more seasoned. i try to do that with my kids. thank you very much. in the meantime, brian moynihan. when it comes to pressing on the economy i've not heard a financial heavyweight who has been as accurate. when everyone is preaching doom and gloom, the bank of america ceo, not to say he's not worried but some perspective from a guy whose record, is unmatched. these next. ♪

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ashley: neil: the market is difficult finding its own feet after 438 on the dow, getting confirmation morgan stanley is cutting jobs 2% of its workforce, same day goldman sachs's ceo worried about pay and job cuts and an iffy environment for the entire banking sector. people on and on like jamie lyman, jpmorgan j saying it is eroding consumer wealth and then enter this next gentleman who no offense to these other gentlemen has been more

accurate on the pace of this economy and its underlying strength and saying things that are out of lockstep, everyone else in the financial industry. brian moynihan is the head of bank of america and what struck out in your comments. i follow your comments closely, your inherent optimism, don't know if that still holds about where we stand, to paraphrase your recent comments but you don't see this freefall going on. explain where you see things going because it's different from your colleagues. >> we have a research team, one of the best in the world. 3 quarters of negative gdp growth in the first part of next year, 1.5%, would be a

shallow recession or however you want to characterize it. if you go back to people who were concerned earlier this spring they pushed out there assumptions from this year to next year. what is driving that, the reality, 3.7%, wages still growing. it shows resilience of the american consumer spent 5% more across the customer base, that rate of growth is slowing but not going off a cliff. the fed has raised rates high and will hold them to make sure inflation, with unemployment where it is, people not -- we are all trimming our job saying we are going to be more careful and cautious because you believe recession is coming but not seeing massive downdraft in the numbers of people, who really layoff people as opposed to trimming jobs or not hiring

as many and a shallow recession. there are issues outside the country especially supply-chain plus ukraine that could change that but experts believe it is a mild recession, back to growth but the fed's rate stays high through 24 and inflation is going because that works hard on middle income america, and see that happen. neil: strategists at bank of america, the same group that is falling 20% from where it is now. what do you think of that? >> the market dynamics and pricing, looking at the economy, that is a 35 - consumers checking accounts with spending, record amount over thanksgiving, that is real. what happens to the recession

over next year, with economic assumptions, is mild recession. that is what the fed is trying to do so you see the most interest rate set taking the hit first and housing crisis, demand for new house, the market's leverage comes out of the system. that is why people are nervous about estimates of the s&p but be a long-term investor like we are, it will work out, the greatest country in the world. neil: your counterpart at jpmorgan chase the jamie lyman talked about, hurricane winds facing the economy, definitely headed for severe recession, looking at a slowdown of 3 quarters, how would you characterize, in light of the

stories that have the federal reserve, far beyond what we thought, well beyond 5% for federal funds. that is a big wall to climb. >> in those estimates, the fed funds rate going up 5%, coming down a little bit at the end of the year. 475 to 5%, this is not they are going to raise rates, they will grind inflation, 23 to 24, that is what the fed said, the duration of this rate hike, may be close to where we might put it up further but the length of which we will hold it longer than people think. that is what you see in market

react, to get inflation and control. with those statistics, you don't see inflation tipping over, you see it play out, then change the posture based on their view through 23. economists think it will take higher rates to get inflation under control. they come down more this year. house prices are coming down. pockets are different, it will be interesting to see the rate driven economy come down, commercial credit, grow single digits, softer than last quarter, consumers have more money. that is the mix. the amount of money and customers accounts is different than the financial crisis as a percentage of what they have before this.

neil: we will start seeing that on real estate applications, refinancing. are we seeing that at bank of america? >> it is 130 million households total, renters, small percentage, the mortgage locked in. of people want to buy new house or sell their houses, they are seeing the stress. that is a small part over the year. that is affecting the house pricing sale market, and new permits all of which are coming down but they are running a heart a hot rate from 19% to 20% more without population growth, why is housing stock more expensive with population growth? in terms of inflation they are cutting it back off. doesn't mean long-term housing

- even if it comes down it will be in excess of where it was, 10% or 15%, better than it was. neil: on crypto and all the allegations and problems, who knows, months or years, going off to jail for malfeasance, don't know where this is going but people like jamie lyman talked about crypto for the longest time being a sideshow. do you come bank of america, think of crypto and the aggregate being a sideshow? >> we always believed there are two part, what is the block chain technology, we have 2 or 3 patents issued already. we believe that technology has purpose and we do things right now. the idea of digital currency we don't do anything with, never thought it was a good idea.

you have to separate the technology, does money move digitally? 60% of money on the consumer side, 98% of the commercial money or corporate money moves every day, trillions of dollars. the idea of a new currency, they are not going to change the system, and that is a fantastic system. are there places to make it more efficient? the purpose of that currency side is something we were never interested in. the technologies interesting when you apply to certain types of transactions. neil: you have not given up on crypto? >> we never give up on crypto, we were never for crypto currencies. we were for the block chain technology, two vastly different things. neil: have a good holiday.

brian moynahan, the ceo of bank of america, this economy is not doom and gloom. we will see how that pans out with sellers and buyers today. we are talking at thousand points in the last couple days, 28 of the dow 30 stocks taking it on the chin. more after this. ♪ ♪ wow, we're crunching tons of polygons here! what's going on? where's regina? hi, i'm ladonna. i invest in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to the nasdaq-100 innovations, like real time cgi. okay... yeah... oh. don't worry i got it! become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq

neil: bank of america ceo brian moynahan talking about the overall economy doing well. he think consumers are doing well. checking, savings account, spending patterns, he must be seeing something others are missing.

as he on to something or just on something? many would argue given his track record, you have been pressing about these trends. let's go to david asman, my thanks for your hard work in my absence, appreciate that. what to do you make of what moynahan is saying? he sees consumer spending slowing but nothing like this massive severe recession the likes of jamie dimon are talking about. >> jamie has softened his hurricane talk a little bit. if you split the difference between the two guys maybe you are on the right path. a personal comment, 4.5% interest rate from a 2-year

bond, did that with extra cash rather than go into the market and questions how long short-term rates are supposed to have smaller returns from long-term rates. we had that inversion for the past 6 or 7 months. a lot of indicators towards recession but one thing moynahan is right as we have the cushion of labor, all the extra jobs out there and the number of people wanting to fill those jobs has protected the economy. the heart of a recession means people losing jobs, we've had some instances of job losses, nothing major, nothing to really upset the cushion we've had that protected us from recession. neil: the fed is overdoing it. if you have yet to see a dent

in inflation, with rate hikes, what if it is overdoing it? >> it is possible and why we have to pay attention to have a treasury bond market, the 10 year treasury yield response to the next rate hike coming up the middle of this month december 14th, widely anticipated, fed funds will be hiked up to 4.4%. the 10 point treasury yield is less then 3. 6%. if you stay at 3.6% we have much higher federal funds rate telling me the market is warning the fed to take it easy with the federal funds rate. maybe one more 50 basis point rate hike but to keep hiking defend - the fed funds rate, it is slapped lower, is insanity. that would almost assure a

relatively severe recession. neil: i want to thank you for all the hard work in my absence. there is other news to tell you about. rising covid cases and lots of other cases quickly filling up hospital beds in this country. should we be worried? jeff flock has more from philadelphia after this. ♪ ♪ reful steward of the things that matter to you most. i promise to bring you advice that fits your values. i promise our relationship will be one of trust and transparency. as a fiduciary, i promise to put your interests first, always.

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neil: we talk about if the markets and whether this continues, 1000 points, things that are more life and death, happening across the country, a number of hospitals and it is a trend some doctors are pointing out, they don't want to panic us but we've seen examples of it with flu cases in the coast

of other respiratory ailments and other cases picking up in hospitals across the country. jeff flock has more from philadelphia. what is going on here? >> reporter: in some ways it has a triple epidemic, that's not a medical term, just what we call this run-up, st. christopher's hospital for children here. this is been a hotbed of rsv, one of the 3 heads of the monster, the respiratory virus that hits kids particularly hard, one-year-old flu and looming covid is on the rise, the greatest among these is flu, rsv has backed off a little bit, flu according to cdc, 8. 7 million people got the flu so far this year, 4500 deaths so far which is the same number we had last year for the whole

season. talk to the head of the emergency department who said it is on the rise. >> greater than 50% of the virus tests returned positive for flu which is a high number. i think the fact we didn't have a flu season for a few years left people with decreased immunity against the flu. >> reporter: that meant a run-up in the rsv we talked about that chuck schumer said in new york a lot of people rsv is down, new york, unprecedented surge in rsv cases. that is why he's telling the feds get ready. when you got 3 heads of a monster it makes it more difficult. the doctor we talked to pointed out we didn't have much flu because we were all taking precautions, washing our hands and all that, got a run-up this

year but it's not as bad as previous years. ashley: you are right to mention it. a lot of people here this talk of hospital beds filling up and immediately go crazy, don't want to hear about it. they are now so angry when they hear even talk of this they are in a state of denial. >> reporter: don't want to get to a state of denial. let's not panic about everything. the flu number we are at right now, may have been the whole season last year but last year was a low flu season and covid was under control, cdc says covid is up and we expect that, people get together for thanksgiving or christmas, we will see a spike about will be a disaster? at this point nobody is saying that.

neil: jeff flock in philadelphia, the dow down 430 points. it fell another 60 points, probably has everything into it. more after this. ♪

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♪liberty. liberty. liberty. liberty.♪ neil: you know the one thing about returning to work is all the sweet emails and texts i'm getting from people, including samantha who writes, oh pity, i didn't see you die. you're back. i so enjoyed seeing charles payne. she says, maybe i'm getting that wrong. cavuto you are resilient. i so miss charles payne. you know is everything you not. i took offense to that. until i realized each of those emails was in fact written by charles payne. my buddy, my friend and a giant, a giant in this business a great human being, man, oh, man, your fans are legion my friend. charles: between him and all my alias accounts we go