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neil: is complicated. when you cut consensusbuilding on the markets and financial ceos saying it is worse than that, jamie dimon@morgmac, the ceo of walmart saying he's betting on strong after christmas sales but not seeing robust activity but along comes the head of southwest airlines, who plans to see net firing of 8000 employees next year. it is complicated either all doom and gloom or not. they are leaning on what the dow 30, more on the less doom and gloom side, could be a

fixed rate day, lauren simonetti has the latest. lauren: morgan stanley is making comments on apple, shifting 3 million fewer iphones for the holiday quarter as the main supplier hit with covid, and protests and actively recruiting workers to restore production. morgan stanley expect apple to shift 75 million units in the holiday quarter but their first forecast was for 85 million. that has come down twice. let's not be all pessimistic. others like susquehanna, expect the iphone hit because of fox con and china to be bigger than morgan stanley says and morgan stanley says it is not loss demand about the third meaning some of these customers will wait for the new iphone. it's not the only hit apple has taken, shares are down 1.3%.

bloomberg is reporting apple has dines as -- downsized and delayed its launch another year pushing it back to 2026. first the car was billed as revolutionary, no petals or steering wheel and like this canoe model all the passengers could face one another like in a limousine. now bloomberg reports the car will have petals and a steering wheel and will only drive itself on the highway so you have to pay attention. price tag reported under one hundred thousand dollars to make to make it more affordable but it is still expensive. a quick check on housing. mortgage rates are coming down, mortgage bankers association has 30 year fixed, 6.41%. it was over 7% in october. the decline is not enough to pull buyers off the sideline, mortgage applications fell one. 9% last week but i want to end on encouraging comments from the head of toll brothers. the ceo says, quote, if these

mortgage rates can break through 6 and get into the 5s we will be on to something and i think that applies to whether it be first time or the toll brothers's luxury meal. if we can get mortgage rates down a little bit, the housing market can turnaround. neil: we will watch closely. there is something to be said. let's go to the former investment banker for take on that. the fourth straight decline, no pickup in any of those and refinancing activity and i wonder if people are shy, not interested, afraid they got on track. >> people are worried about prices of housing.

we had analysis that came out this week that said 8% of the mortgages this year, 270,000 units in 2022 people are underwater. they actually all more on their mortgage than their house is worth. that's not a good trend, a shade of 2,008, we are probably not in for the depths of that but that speaks to the fact that people don't know what is ahead in terms of this asset bubble and will these high prices continue. neil: what do you think of the notion, i don't see that. prior to this there might leave some folks vulnerable but nothing like the time we were trading condos and real estate companies sight unseen so what do you see? >> i'm not seeing the same

scope every time somebody works at your local coffee shop they go to 3 properties that are worth half $1 billion. we don't have that and we don't have the derivatives piece, the scope of the great recession financial crisis was way worse than it would have been because of these gambling types of situations with credit default swaps in the derivatives. between the 2 of those certainly those numbers i just told you we are going to have some issues but i don't think we will have the same depth and scope we had in 2008. neil: hope you are right. meanwhile, want to take you to some plans in california, governor gavin newsom is saying a lot of the oil companies are making too much money, he wants to find them or toss the money back. it seems a little lazy but

let's get the latest from ashley webster. what is he looking to do? ashley: it is california. the state could become the first to find big oil companies for making too much money but how much profit is too much and what fines will big oil have to pay of that amount is exceeded. governor gavin newsom hasn't provided those details yet but he and his democratic allies in the state legislature pushing the proposal in a special session that has been called qe2 to discuss gas prices. newsom claims oil companies are nothing but shameless price gaucher's. >> they think they can get away with it. ashley: in october the average price of a gallon of gasoline is more than $2.60 higher than the national average, the

biggest gap ever recorded. newsom says there's no way to justify that but critics are quick to point out the gas prices are always higher in california because of taxes, fees and environmental regulations. look at this breakdown of what california motorists pay in taxes and fees per gallon. there is federal and state excise taxes, account for $0.79 and there is more. there are low carbon gas and greenhouse gas fees and even a fee for underground tank storage. that is next dollar and $0.18, and fees alone per gallon. of the proposed profit fine would be classified as a civil penalty, not a tax, which means a simple majority will be needed for passage in the legislature. newsom's offices any money for these fines would be a return to the public. they are not happy saying the

proposal is just another tax the consumer will have to pay. the debate begins in earnest next month in sacramento. neil: it does seem incredible. you get the feeling many in the oil industry, someone has an arrow up there head including my next guest, petroleum association of wyoming president, has a separate conundrum, the federal government's push to limit, if not prevent gas sales, permit sales in the third quarter of this year. you are saying the government reneged on this or stop altogether? >> thanks much, good to see you. the federal government owns vast resources particularly in the west.

30 billion barrels of oil, 230,000,000,000,000 ft. of natural gas, recoverable, there is only one path to get it and that is leasing through the federal government. congress said many years ago federal government should lease at least four times a year to access the resource. the biden administration in its 2-year administration, we can't abide that. we've gone to court to make sure they follow this law and we can explore resources that can bring gas prices down like your interview suggests. neil: many in your industry have earmarks on their head and they are being chased, and the administration made clear that fossil fuels are just not going to be tolerated in the next few

years, i can understand, what do you do? >> it is frustrating to say the least. you've got an administration, very unfriendly countries, in venezuela, to try to prop up oil supply so you can deal with issues like home heating and gas prices, meanwhile in wyoming, you would think nobody expects there's an easy solution to this energy crunch we are in but you expect our own government to move heaven and earth to be a partner in trying to use domestic resources, domestic companies to produce its resource so it is frustrating for us, we pushed through the head wents. we do it in an environmentally friendly way and wish we had more of a partner in the federal government.

neil: you have the senate confirmed democratic control. i don't see things changing rapidly. >> don't see it changing rapidly. congress doesn't have much say anymore in terms of what the biden interior does on leases and environments, and wyoming's delegation and others, those sorts of things at the agency and that is why we spend so much time trying get to work with them. we go to court to try -- to work on behalf of 12,000 people. neil: keep us up to date on this. the petroleum association of wyoming president, it is an uphill battle. in the meantime, it is still

next to impossible and doesn't let you know it? she's back but she's also still pretty angry about this after this. ♪

neil: a little bit of good news and bad news, baby formula remains in short supply. here is the good news. lydia is back and is on top of it after taking maternity leave, a growing, beautiful family, she's here to report on this, an issue for a lot of families. we are nowhere near solving this, are we? >> reporter: this issue hits near and dear to my heart as it is great to be back with you. thank you for the warm welcome. the formula crisis is still here. it has got better from the peak. we can look at the recent data

from analytics, supply, 86% in stock which is approaching precrisis levels but not always there but that's only part of the story, this is of the shelves behind me. you can see they are nearly bare, the stores, cvs, across the country, still rationing purchases of formula. we are finding social media groups are helping families seek your formula, they are very busy because there is tremendous need. one website says it has recently seen a spike with 7000 people signing up for services within the past couple weeks. parents telling us finding formula for them seems like it is getting harder, not better. >> it seems it is only getting worse. within the surrounding area.

>> i've gone to supermarkets. i have driven -- if they don't have it. >> this is our generation. as the country we live in, we can't feed them. >> reporter: it does seem parents having the most difficulty finding formula searching for specialty types for babies with dietary restrictions. that is where the challenges are coming from and this comes as the maker of the largest formula brand on the market right now, they expect the shortages to continue into the spring. the biden administration had operation fly formula, a lot of baby formula, the last transport was in september and we reached out to them to ask

if there were any transports expected in the near future. we are waiting to hear back on the front. for parents searching for formula it seems there is a lot of stress and a lot of questions. neil: great to have you back, thank you very much. >> reporter: thank you. neil: a lot of people ask is there a doctor in the house? there is. an internist and a good read medically of where we go. this amazes me when we have a problem like this, an all-out assault to get formula here anywhere and everywhere and this drags on. what is a parent to do? >> great to be with you. it is concerning. infants under 6 months there are two options. they don't do well.

it is unhealthy to give them milk or any other substitute so they are stuck with breast milk or baby formula. it is a difficult thing. for older children 6 months and older for short times they can do cows milk, it can be dangerous to their kidneys, too much protein, not the right food for them. it is concerning. minus children that is my children are older and not facing this crisis but it is concerning for parents and there's no simple answer. neil: we talked about this during the height of covid, they are returning a number of respiratory illnesses. i am not saying they are swamping hospital beds but it seems fairly widespread in this country. does it worry you? >> a little bit and it is widespread. flu cases are outstripping covid cases. there's a couple pieces of information that might be helpful.

flu cases, hospitalizations, 20% in the past week or so, people are going to the hospital with flu and covid cases are up a bit as well. not to the level of the flu. 28,000 covid technicians and 48,000 for the flu so there's 20,000 more flu admissions. a good piece of news is as cases arise with covid and the flu, covid deaths are down sharply so even people going to the hospital with it people are not dying from it. we see milder cases in general and deaths are down so that is it. neil: thank you? good catching up with you. the good news is china is backing away from 0-tolerance policy on covid. china's economy, start making iphones and the like but not so

fast. the read on development over there, what can fisher is doing over here. ♪ as an independent financial advisor, i stand by these promises: i promise to be a careful steward of the things that matter to you most. i promise to bring you advice that fits your values. i promise our relationship will be one of trust and transparency. as a fiduciary, i promise to put your interests first, always. charles schwab is proud to support the independent financial advisors who are passionately dedicated to helping people achieve their financial goals. visit findyourindependentadvisor.com

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neil: how do you characterize where we are going especially in light of the stories that have the federal reserve increasing rates far beyond 5% for federal funds. that is a big wall to climb, isn't it? >> yes it is. in those estimates is the fed funds rate going up 5% and staying all the way through

next year and coming down next year and into this year, 475 to 5%. this is they raise rates, as they grind inflation for 23 into 24. we are going to have the have the duration of this rate hikes, close to what we have further. it may be longer than people think. neil: bank of america chairman brian moynahan telling of we go through recession it is mild and the economy will keep chugging. let's get the read from chairman can fisher. good to have you. what do you make of what moynahan is saying? >> my view of big bank ceos is

usually critical but it is like br'er rabbit, don't throw me in the briar patch, if they believe what they are showing, us bank lending would be as robust. margins have been going up because their deposit costs are low. they make bigger profits on loans and do more of them. if they believe things are going to be bad, they are talking it down from what they are doing. neil: he is not speaking like a lot of the other s, like goldman sachs or wells fargo. he sees a relatively strong consumer. he is or read about this high rate environment and that is where he shares the scent of a lot of others but we've got

different reads and that. a few minutes ago, we got word southwest airlines ceo, another 8000 employees next year, if we are going to hell in a hand basket, what do you make of where we are? >> we are not going to hell in a hand basket despite people fearing that we are. the reality said simply, air travel is globally any single airline aside, any single location aside, globally getting to where we are approaching severe trouble. that keeps going, us hotel occupancy rates, currently exceeding year end 2019 rates despite higher intel costs or room rates. the reality of so much of this, i want to go back to what i

said before, whether it is jamie dimon or other bankers none of them wanting to tell you we are doing great. our profits are strong and we are lending like crazy because what the fed is doing. they are not going to tell you that. when lending is as strong, the us overall going to 12% probably decelerates. globally 9%. people don't borrow short intermediate-term money to sit on it. the economy in any short-term time period, would take a long time. neil: now that we finished the makeup of the senate, democrats have a 49 edge there, republicans narrow in the house. is any of this a market event? >> mind you i have been with

you before when i talked about a midterm miracle, fourth-quarter midterm election year, two quarters first and second year, third year of the president's term, that is the most consistently profitable 9 months in stock market history. the fact of the matter is the positivity rate of those 9 months is 92%, overall average return is 20% regardless of the session or whether or not we've been in bear market and from double lows in september and october, we are up 10% on the s&p and the midterm is working and probably continues to work in creating gridlock so the controversial legislation, done with the lame duck which is

falling in line from now to january. this all gets better. neil: markets have been pounded through covid and where we stand now. what is the average mean of return from here? would it be 10% from our lows? would it be getting us back to the 8% quasi-kind of norm for markets over many years? that can be wildly gyrated but where do you see things? >> the reality of third-year terms is they tend to be particularly positive when the second year is negative. these tend to be 20% plus years, they cannot be single digit positive and are not negative. also, the fact of the matter is

it is really a world where because we go from high concerns in a bear market as you bounce off the bear market the first third of the bull market is well above average returns. neil: let's talk about people on the verge of retiring or scared they have already done so. >> the average age of retirement is 60 one. people on on the verge of retirement in today's world unless they have something about their genetics or personal conduct that impact their health probably live another 20 years or longer, they will see multiple bear markets so i can't give them

individual advice without knowing them but you say to yourself over very long time period capital markets tend to work, stocks do pretty well. if you are good at timing the market you are probably not. the fact of the matter is being a relatively passive long-term investor can you do anything better in a 20 year time? you need that money to work for you as an average retiree as you approach retirement for a long time, the traditional notion that i should get real conservative and here is your future opportunity cost because there is more upside than downside. neil: what do you think of real estate? >> real estate is fine. it is a perfectly wonderful thing but lots of different things. hidden costs are bigger than people think it is and you have to manage it and that is fine.

nothing wrong with that but you have to accept that and you are liquid. as you get older you better be prepared to hold it but there's nothing wrong with real estate in positive terms or intermediate terms. or veering negative. the reality, for example, real estate loans right now are very strong other than home mortgage loans. real estate is a perfectly fine area. neil: commercial real estate? >> all the factors in commercial real estate, looking at 9% lending increases. not a bad market. neil: stepping back from this the big news, china is

reversing its 0-tolerance, nothing could scary leader for life, people don't like what is going on, they reversing that and seems and encouraging development to see them booming again. is that a developing to you or do you have doubts about it or is it just noise in the scheme of things? >> i don't really know, a strong opinion, the fact of the matter is trying to predict what totalitarian governments will do is like trying to predict what the fed will do. it is a fool's game and the dictators or the fed know what they will do, the fed actually saying we will do this. you heard me say many times, they may loosen covid restrictions.

chinese gdp is stronger than it was earlier in the year. to the extent they relieve the lockdowns, a bounce back growth spurt contributes to helping the rest of the world. part of the global economy. neil: you have linked the federal reserve with a dictator run country. was that by coincidence? >> what is wrong with that? >> i didn't say they were dictators. what they say is what they will do. in may, the fed said no consideration or interest in 75 basis point rate increases. the month after that, boom boom boom.

the history, this is what they say, this is what we do. i don't know why dictators are any different. would you believe anything pruden said? as a reflection of what putin would do? neil: a valid point. you have jerome powell online one for you. good seeing you again. thank you very much. >> always great. neil: ken fisher on that. the signals that can fisher is heading to, all of this at a time when many companies are saying we will trigger more, percentagewise they are still small. after this. ♪ ♪

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neil: we are a week away from another hike in interest rates, probably half a point. i am wondering if that would change plans on the part of pepsico saying we are still laying off workers. the percentage is small but building, the number of companies doing this, charlie gasparino on that. obviously interest rates go up more with this type of activity and maybe this will continue. charles: if you read the journal, they are not necessarily walking away from raising interest rates, they want to see what is going on as

we might get 5% and fed funds rate or above so we might have 50 basis points now into next year. i don't know why that -- neil: that all started at 0. that is pretty startling but go ahead. charles: here is what is interesting. you've got to extrapolate and surmise. take it for what it is worth. i did little bit of a dive into the pepsico layoffs. we do know on wall street in times like this when there is uncertainty and there is uncertainty, the biggest customers cutting back, they started, the bottom 10% is called the weakest performers. and gave him pink slips. what went on it pepsico is not that. these were people, someone gave me a list of names, you wouldn't know what they are,

just people who had been it pepsico for 20 years, senior middle-management, they were there for a long time and got pink slips. this is not calling the bottom 10%. this was taking made out of a patient so to speak. it shows you they are looking to cut costs because they are seeing something in numbers that you would think their numbers would be recession resistant, frito-lay soft drinks, even during the great depression people drank coca-cola but they are cutting back significantly. i know can fisher and respect him. he's on the optimistic side. the way this was cut gives you pause that you shouldn't be too optimistic. neil: you really got me down. charles: it can or what i say. neil: all of a sudden come on. charles: bye-bye bye-bye bye-bye bye. who does that remind you of?

neil: love you, charlie gasparino is good at what he does. i'm getting a read from walmart, interesting comments comes down to this. we will get through christmas but it is after christmas, what do you make of that after this? e is more than a trading platform. it's an entire trading experience. with innovation that lets you customize interfaces, charts and orders to your style of trading. personalized education to expand your perspective. and a dedicated trade desk of expert-level support. that will push you to be even better. and just might change how you trade—forever. because once you experience thinkorswim® by td ameritrade ♪ there's no going back. hi, my name's steve. i lost 138 pounds on golo and i kept it off. so with other diets, you just feel like

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>> welcome back to coast to coast, walmart joining target and righted calling out that as a major problem. ceo doug mcmillan saying it is higher than it has historically been saying prices will be higher and or stores will close if the tendency of authorities to not straightly prosecute theft isn't corrected over time. walmart declined to provide fox business with details of losses from theft or shrinkage in the industry. but with reduced gross margins by 600 million this year. when asked how local jurisdictions handle shoplifting cases mcmillan said a lax approach could impact prices and lead to store closures down the line.

the national retail federation found losses increased to 94 in 2021. organized incidents or 26% on average in the same year according to the 2,022 national retail security survey. if i send it back to you, we need to have consistency policies when it comes to crime. in order to have investment in local communities. neil: he's right about that. thank you very much. the implications, the president of business management, one of the things people forgot the walmart app ceo was into that that if this goes unstopped he would have to shut down stores, particularly high robbery

places. it is what walmart thinks of that. who else? >> the numbers are alarming. it is the manner in which this is going on and the implication for each community and each store this happens in and that's what the problem is. this type of crime emboldens other types of crime it escalates from here. neil: the numbers are better and outside activity, i never like to overhyped these videos, that they are stealing stuff and combination of all of that. >> the walmarts of the world know their shrinkage comes from

inside job and if there's a problem internally they have to work with it. they will call on law enforcement to be tougher, we enforce that on their own staff but the outside theft, these people steal from stores because they think they can, they have the justification, they think they can get in and out so stores do have to show higher security and law enforcement presence. neil: they seem to be rampant in stores these days with other places and they could monitor or see for themselves who se taking what about i don't see a lot of that. they don't have man or woman power to deal with it. >> it is a catch-22 because when it comes to security and

monitoring you want the cameras to be out of sight little bit. people forget they are there but in this case the more they would be visible the more they might be a deterrent and typically that is a big enough deterrent when there's a show of force or cameras are in plain view and people know they are being filmed, the slight nuance right now and what is different right now is the wearing of masks and hoods inside a retail location is not only common but was at one point encouraged. than you thought something was going wrong during the pandemic, masking and hooding and hiding yourself from your neighbor and social distancing is a normal activity so it is hard to pick out the good guys and gals for the bad guys and gals. neil: i never thought of that, thank you very much.

just before we go to break, morgan stanley, shipments are likely going to be hit, there is those 0 covid policy, where they are ticked off over there, they dial that back by 3 million iphones. they will be impacted to that degree. we don't have one of these fancy phones, might have to sit by. and i know him. ♪

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neil: all right, we're trying to avoid a fifth day of losses pretty good for the dow in and out of positive territory, but i know a guy who can submit the deal in the next hour. set the stage, charles payne. hey, charles. charles: it's called the cp effect we'll put it to the test today, for sure, good afternoon i'm charles payne this is "making money" breaking right now, stocks wavering but things a lot of things lurking beneath the surface right, the intertwining of bonds and stocks that'